12-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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SCOTT SPREITZER

GAME OF THE YEAR* Indianapolis Colts
BLOCKBUSTER* NY Jets

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Root

Mill - Tenn
Bill - Ravens
No Limit - Seattle

Board - Dallas
TV GOW - Miami

Pinnacle - Giants

Perfect Play - Jets

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colts and Jaguars to go 'under' the total. The Jaguars have played eight of their last 10 games 'over' the total, while Indy is on a 3-0-1 'over' run. And that's led to an inflated number here. Indeed, Indianapolis' last four games have gone 3-0-1 'over' the number mainly because it has played four high-powered offenses (New England, San Diego, Dallas, Tennessee). Against those four teams, the Colts gave up 31, 36, 38 and 28 points. But Jacksonville's offense is below average (it scores 22.7 ppg vs. teams that give up 23.2 ppg), and I project it will score below Indy's home defensive average of 21 ppg. Moreover, this game likely will determine the winner of the AFC South, as both Jacksonville and Indianapolis are in control of their own playoff destiny. And I expect a tense atmosphere at the RCA Dome, and a game in which both teams are a bit conservative at the start. Moreover, division games go 'under' the total 63.3% of the time in the last part of the NFL season (Game 11 forward) when the line is greater than 45 points. Take the 'under.'


At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans to go 'under' the total. The Texans have played five of their last six games 'over' the total. The one game that went 'under?' That was three weeks ago against these same Tennessee Titans. Houston won that ballgame 20-0, and we easily cashed the 'under' 46.5 in that game. Now, the line in this game is slightly higher, notwithstanding the fact that Tennessee has averaged 12.5 ppg over its last four games (3 'unders' and 1 'over'). Houston did erupt for 489 yards of offense last week, but has gone 'under' the total 7 straight games on the road after gaining 400+ yards in its previous game. And, as I mentioned in the Colts/Jags write-up, division games tend to go over late in the season when the line is greater than 45 points. Take the 'under.'


At 1 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Rams over Kansas City. Both the Rams and Chiefs lead their respective divisions, despite less than impressive records (St Louis is 6-7; KC is 8-5). The Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 at Arrowhead this year, but a dismal 2-5 on the road, with their wins coming against Cleveland and Seattle -- both below-average clubs. St. Louis has a similar home/road dichotomy: The Rams are also 2-5 on the road, but have won 4 of 6 at home, and are currently a 1-point underdog (as of this writing). Last week, the Rams were throttled 31-13 by the Saints, but home teams are a solid 80-47 ATS in the late stages of an NFL season (Game 14 forward) if they're off a blowout loss by 16+ points, and are installed as a dog or PK. Additionally, the Rams fall into a 73-30 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off blowout losses late in the year. Take St. Louis.


At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Arizona. Last week, Arizona steamrolled Denver 43-13, while Carolina was blown out 31-10 by Atlanta, as a 7-point dog. And those results set up our play here, as losing teams are 40-11 ATS as a Favorite (or PK) off a loss, if they failed to cover by 8+ points, and their opponent is off a straight up win. Before erupting for those 43 points, Arizona had scored just 6 points in back-to-back games. But last week, Arizona was greatly helped by a staggering 6 Denver turnovers. However, Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS off a game in which its turnover differential was +2 or higher. Take the Panthers minus the points.


At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the NY Jets + the points over Pittsburgh. Rex Ryan's men have stumbled in December, losing 45-3 at New England, and 10-6 at home to Miami. But off those 2 losses, the Jets are primed to bounce back and cover the spread on Sunday, as underdogs of more than 3 points, off a home loss (and 2+ losses overall), are 41-11 ATS vs. non-division foes off a home win by more than 7 points (and 2+ wins overall). Take the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss our big 29-0 ATS NFL Non-Division Underdog of the Year on Sunday, as we look to remain Red-Hot. And, looking ahead, we have our 5* College Football Game of the Year coming up shortly. We're 43-16 since December 2001, as documented by The Sports Monitor, on our 5* College Football Plays, so don't miss our #1 selection this season (out of a 100% Perfect System).


At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Atlanta, as Seattle falls into several of my best systems -- with records of 29-0, 69-37, 30-7 and 43-24 since 1980. Last week, the Seahawks were blown out 40-21 by the 49ers, while Atlanta won its seventh straight game, a 31-10 win at Carolina. This will be Atlanta's third straight road game -- never a good situation for an NFL team -- and teams playing their 3rd straight game on the road are a dismal 24-43 ATS since 1980 off a straight-up win. Even worse: .290 (or better) NFL teams are 7-36 ATS on the road off a win by 12 or more points, if they scored at least 28 points in that victory, and are now matched up against a .180 (or better) foe off a loss in which it gave up 38+ points. And, if our road team (here, Atlanta) is NOT an underdog of more than 3 points, then our 36-7 system zooms to a perfect 29-0! Take Seattle + the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3* Baltimore -1

2* Seattle +6

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

10* Bengals
10* Panthers
Broncos
Packers/Patriots Under

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

30 Dime NFL Money Move
Atlanta Falcons -6

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob - Hoops
Sunday College Opinions
There are 5 college teams on Sunday backed by good situations, but I wasn’t comfortable making any of them Best Bets (one game is close). I will consider all 5 games opinions and they are Dartmouth (+24 ½), Florida Atlantic (-6 ½), NC Greensboro (+26), Citadel (+21 ½), and Montana State (-2).

I would make Florida Atlantic a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.