Thoughts from my first year of MMA gambling!

[Dr_Ngo]

So the year's almost over and I finished at +15 units, or 15% of my bankroll. Overall pretty happy as I was just trying to beat a 8% return and was even up 30% at one point.

Some of my thoughts and lessons learned from this year

Ring rust is real and should be accounted for. Rampage looked like shit vs Rashad, Sean Sherk gassed. Shoguns previous fights after Knee surgeries.

Double check before finalizing bets. I had two huge mistakes with Sportbet. I’m use to putting in my bet as how much I want to risk. Like $200 means, I’m risking $200. On Sportbet it’s the opposite, means you want to win $200. So what happened is me wanting to put $500 on Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran, not realizing that SportBet made me wager $1000 instead. So double check!

Freak fights are opportunities - Couture over Toney, Tim Silvia vs. Pudzianowski. Also in hindsight, Overeem vs. Rogers was a HUGE mismatch.

Undefeated fights, hype vs. real deal - These are the kinda matches I have the most trouble with, is this new prospect overhyped or the real deal? I made money on Miller vs. Olivera, but lost twice this year betting against Cain. I'm thinking it's better for me to avoid these matches and stick to fights with guys that have a lot of history.

Immediate rematches - So Edgar beat Penn, and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shogun arguably beat Machida and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shit didn't make sense to me. They beat them already, can beat them again. And I made $ from it. I'm also thinking rematches will favor the original winner. Fitch won against Alves and I'm betting on Maynard over Edgar.

MMA judging is an x factor. I’ve lost a lot of bets due to bad judging, dunham/sherk, phan/Garcia, lil nog vs. bader, Machida vs rampage. Not much you can do to prepare for it, but realize there’s no such thing as a “lock.” I use to think flash K.O.'s were the x factors but bad judging is getting more prolific.

Almost all of my bets were picking the winners of a fight. Now I’m expanding a bit and adding in how long the fight goes. Some fights it’ll be very predictable whether that it’ll go to a decision.

Worst bets: Bet on Alves vs. Fitch, Bet on Mir against Carwin, Any bet against Joey Beltran (Rolles Gracie, Tim Hague)

Best bets: Edgar over Penn in 2nd fight, Shogun vs. Machida in 2nd fight, Jim Miller vs. Olivera, Maynard vs. Florian, Okami vs. Marquardt

Stay away from matches that are gambles - How will Shogun's knee surgery affect his Cardio? What's JDS ground game like?

Real life effects on fighters - As soon as I heard Dan Lauzon got kicked out of his own training camp by his brother, I put money on Efrain Escudero because I knew the odds would sway.

Look at the weigh ins for weight cut diasters – This is a nice opportunity. Some guys are DRAINED when it comes to weight ins. One that comes to mind were Irvin vs. Sakara. As soon as I saw how terrible Irvin looked, I put money on Sakara. Another one that comes to mind was Dustin Hazelett’s cut to lightweight, losing to Bocek. Also Jake Shields performed really bad even though he won.

Dealing with emotions - Sometimes if I'll have a really bad event or streak and try to make it up by gambling more in the next event. Just gotta realize it's part of the game. Best way to make it up is to not lose more!

Fighters I will never bet on again: Joe Stevenson, Gonzaga

I’m aiming for +30 units this year. Some + factors for 2011

- More knowledge of fighters. most of the bets I have are for the "known" fighters so I'm looking forward to knowing more of the lesser names.
- Experience of 2010
- This forum. Only had MMA_Scientist's analysis of fights to look at, so it's definitely nice to have everyone's opinion to look at either.

Thanks for reading!
::luck::

[MMA_scientist]

Good stuff, and nice work on the + return.

I agree on most of your learning experiences. One thing you mention is hype vs real deal type fights. I bet and lost a lot on these types of fights. I usually bet against the prospect (against Jon Jones vs. Vera, against Bader v. Nog). I think it is best just to stay away until you feel you have a grasp on the skills of the fighter against competition.

The emotional ride is the hardest thing for me.

Add Brandon Vera and Jardine to your list of fighters to never bet on again.

One other thing I have noticed is that sometimes you can find a fighter that is consistently undervalued and just play them until everyone else catches on. I have been hammering Paixao this year. I also bet Dos Anjos pretty hard several times (Dos Anjos over Etim was probably one of mt best plays this year). Guys that fly under the radar but keep winning. Hallman was one of those guys too... I kept saying he had value in every fight this year, but never did bet him.

Anyway, on to 2011

[Mr. IWS]

Hell of a year man. Nice job.

Looks like you were right there with us on a lot of stuff. Rolles, Beltran, Pudz.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I am with you on the mismatches. They are free money, you have to take it. Even at -600, Couture had value. I actually believed Overeem/Rogers would be competitive (maybe even edge to Rogers). In hindsight, that was really damn silly.

But Overeem vs Fujita/Thompson/Goodridge/Syvester? Free money. Mousasi/Goodridge? Free money. Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category. Same thing with Aoki. I am taking the free money on these showcase freakshow bets from now on. I have never seen one lose.

[Ludo]

Fucking Rolles Gracie...

[Mr. IWS]

Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category.

I lol'd

[Mr. IWS]

Fucking Rolles Gracie...

Nuff said

[Ludo]

yeah, I am with you on the mismatches. They are free money, you have to take it. Even at -600, Couture had value. I actually believed Overeem/Rogers would be competitive (maybe even edge to Rogers). In hindsight, that was really damn silly.

But Overeem vs Fujita/Thompson/Goodridge/Syvester? Free money. Mousasi/Goodridge? Free money. Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category. Same thing with Aoki. I am taking the free money on these showcase freakshow bets from now on. I have never seen one lose.

Fedor Emelienanko?

[Mr. IWS]

I thought he picked Werdum to win?

[MMA_scientist]

Werdum is far from a showcase fight. I did pick Werdum to win, fwiw. But Werdum is and has been top 10 for at least 4 years. That is not a freakshow/showcase fight.

A freakshow is Fedor vs. Choi. That was free money and should have been taken. The greatest fighter of all time versus a guy with no MMA fights and his follow up fight was against Jose Canseco... that is an absolute lock.

[edman5555]

Yeah I cashed in on Werdum. I had about 5u on him at 7 to 1. The was my best win. Then I lost a bunch on dumb bets. I suck.

[Ludo]

I won on Werdum as well, I'm just saying as far as mismatches go that had to be one. Fedor had never been submitted, never even come close even when sitting in Minotauro's guard on two separate occasions going up against a guy who had a huge disadvantage in the standing portion of the fight.

[Luke]

Good stuff, and nice work on the + return.

I agree on most of your learning experiences. One thing you mention is hype vs real deal type fights. I bet and lost a lot on these types of fights. I usually bet against the prospect (against Jon Jones vs. Vera, against Bader v. Nog). I think it is best just to stay away until you feel you have a grasp on the skills of the fighter against competition.

The emotional ride is the hardest thing for me.

Add Brandon Vera and Jardine to your list of fighters to never bet on again.



Pretty sure someone on this forum has been saying this for over a year now

[Luke]

yeah, I am with you on the mismatches. They are free money, you have to take it. Even at -600, Couture had value. I actually believed Overeem/Rogers would be competitive (maybe even edge to Rogers). In hindsight, that was really damn silly.

But Overeem vs Fujita/Thompson/Goodridge/Syvester? Free money. Mousasi/Goodridge? Free money. Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category. Same thing with Aoki. I am taking the free money on these showcase freakshow bets from now on. I have never seen one lose.

Fedor Emelienanko?


Lashley ?

[Luke]

Best bet of the year : Hopkins +3000 draw

Worst bet of the year : Brock -140 over cain

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I am with you on the mismatches. They are free money, you have to take it. Even at -600, Couture had value. I actually believed Overeem/Rogers would be competitive (maybe even edge to Rogers). In hindsight, that was really damn silly.

But Overeem vs Fujita/Thompson/Goodridge/Syvester? Free money. Mousasi/Goodridge? Free money. Overeem vs. whoever he fights next weekend will fall into that category. Same thing with Aoki. I am taking the free money on these showcase freakshow bets from now on. I have never seen one lose.

Fedor Emelienanko?


Lashley ?


No. You can't showcase a guy that is not established as a quality fighter. Lashley was not established as a legit fighter (and still isn't). He may actually be on the ass end of the showcase NYE w/ Overeem...

[edman5555]

I'm no expert but I don't think Big Nogs guard is nearly as good as Werdums. I think they are pretty far apart

[Dr_Ngo]

Yea, Werdum is an ADCC Gold Medalist (aka best of the best). Think Big Nog was effect with his BJJ because of his wrist control and his chin.

Still pissed off about Gonzaga this year. Nothing I hate more than a sick grappler that thinks he's a kickboxer

[MMA_scientist]

Werdum is definitely more accomplished that Nog in bjj and a better all around grappler IMO, but then again, Nog beat Werdum in an MMA fight which I have never seen (but I think Nog won it with his boxing not his grappling).

[poopoo333]

Nice thread man, good job this year and good luck next year! This year (my first as well) was a definite learning experience for me too.

[SPX]

Good thread here. I want to respond to some of the specific points that have been made, but first here are some stats that I worked up today.

One thing I'd like to point out: Parlays and props are not included in my main records and results, or in my results per organization. They're their own self-contained category. The one exception is my boxing results. I included props because I had so few boxing bets for the year.

I've said that one unit represents 2% of my bankroll. That's close to true, but as I have spent most of the year playing with a total bankroll of under $1000 (I started with a total of around $700 . . . not sure of the exact amount) and use a $20 unit, it's actually a little more. I have never adjusted my unit, so the actual percentage fluctuates. But for our purposes, we'll say 2%.


Overall YTD Total: +10.8u
Total Straight Bets Made: 175

Favorites: 54-29 / +1.52u
Underdogs: 37-55 / +11.52u

Parlays: 2-9 / +.76u
Props: 1-10 / -1.68u

UFC: +12.26u
WEC: +7.66u
Strikeforce: -6.09u
DREAM: -1u
Bellator: -.95u
MFC: +1.77u
Shark Fights: -4.5u
Other: +2.02u
Boxing: +.36u


Thoughts and Observations: The first thing I noticed, which I found shocking, was that I just barely showed a profit in terms of bets on favorites. Almost all of my money I made came from underdog bets. Looking through my records, it seems there are two very big reasons for my poor overall performance here: 4u on Soko to beat Alexander and 5u on Machida to beat Rampage. Had I won those two fights right there I would've ended up over 10 units ahead in my bets on favorites. But as it stands, just those two little fights alone--out of 175 total bets made--had a massive impact.

This leads me to the conclusion that we just HAVE to win our bets on favorites. Just losing one 3u bet can fuck up an entire event and even if you win two or three other bets you may still end up behind for the night, or barely breaking even. (This has happened to me more times than I can count . . . just one bet ruined what would've been an otherwise profitable night.) The other side of this coin is that I need to get back to betting more dogs. I had a little run there where I was doing well on underdog bets but then I had a bad event where I lost several dog bets and it made me gunshy. I went back to betting mostly favorites, as that seemed to be "safer," and then ended up losing money when those favorites lost to dogs that I probably otherwise would've bet on in the past. So don't overlook the dogs and if you bet on a favorite make sure you have a very good reason for doing so.

I also noticed that my performance in regard to Strikeforce is abysmal. It got better toward the end of the year, but in the first half I lost several fairly big bets and had a lot of losing events. AA over Bigfoot, Lawler over Babalu, Mousasi over King Mo . . . all losers. Not sure what it is about that promotion, but I have not done well. I need to start paying more attention.

Keys to doing better in 2011: 1. Research. I make too many bets based on my memory of fighters' performances or I'm just following others. When I really commit myself to my research, I see the difference in the results. 2. Take the dog more often in close fights or don't bet at all. Too many times if the fight's close then I go with the favorite. I get swayed by the fact that apparently everyone else thinks they're going to win so I decide they probably will. Then a lot of times they don't. If it looks like it might be close, then I need to convince myself on why I SHOULDN'T bet the underdog rather than the other way around. 3. Perhaps make fewer bets in general. I have a habit of spreading smaller amounts of money around to a lot of fights rather than a lot of money on fewer fights. I just don't like to have all my eggs in one basket, but it may be more profitable in the long run to focus on that sort of strategy. Then again, I tried that with Soko and Machida and clearly the results can be disastrous. 4. Pay more attention to a fighter's recent performances and results rather than just looking at the matchup on paper. I've often bet on fighters like Soko, Jardine, Varner, etc thinking that--on paper--they should win. Then they don't. I need to be more cautious in this regard.

My initial goal for the year was 25 units and at one point I was very close to that before hitting a pretty bad losing streak. Thankfully, I was able to rebound somewhat and end the year on an upward climb. In terms of real dollars, I deposited somewhere around $700 in the middle of 2009, which is when I first started betting. (It was around the TUF 9 finale.) I now have a total of $975.84 in my accounts. When I hit $1250 I intend to adjust my unit accordingly.

The goal for 2011 is once again 25 units. Good luck to us all.

[Svino]

Interesting thread, guys. This is also my first full year of MMA betting. Last year, I did about half a year of 'imaginary' betting, and half a year of real betting, and my betting style has changed quite a bit since then.

I may still bet on some NYE fights, but I did a compilation of my almost-full-year stats.

I'll be finishing somewhere around +66% for the year. I think I've been lucky; I'll be very happy if I can do anything like half this well on a regular basis. I did a breakdown of my bets by "odds category" and some of the results were interesting (to me anyway). That is, I categorized them by implied odds, so bets above -400 are in the 80%+ category, between -233 and -400 in the 70%-79% category, and so on.

80%+
My record: 10/10 (100%)
Only one of these (Couture/Toney) was a freakshow fight, but I agree with what has been said about them earlier in the thread.

70%-79%
My record: 13/17 (76%)
The losses: Stevenson (vs. G-Sot), Harris (vs. Falcao), Machida (vs. Rampage), and fucking Stevenson again. I was doing soooo well in this category until a little while ago, then I blew it. Let me just say that I second the good Dr. Ngo's "never betting on Stevenson again" policy.

60%-69%
My record: 12/19 (63%)

50%-59%
My record: 8/15 (53%)

40%-49%
My record: 15/27 (55%)

30%-39%
My record: 13/30 (43%)

20%-29%
My record: 8/20 (40%)
Several of the losses here were frustratingly close, too. (Sonnen/Silva, Masvidal/Daley, Modaferri/Kaufman)

19%-
My record: 1/12 (8.3%)
I'm 1/5 on picking fight winners here, with the only win being Pyle over Hathaway. The other bets were longshot props. My "fastest TKO" project is not going well.

Biggest win for the year: Rua over Machida. Biggest loss: Machida over Jackson.

Anyway, after all this, my point is that I'm pretty consistently "not-much-better-than-given-odds" at picking favorites, but solid at picking underdogs. Similar to what SPX found, I guess. I ended up only about +6% on all favorites, and +60% on dogs, a 1:10 profit ratio favoring underdogs. Oddly enough, that pattern didn't hold on the extreme ends, where I was better with heavy favorites than heavy dogs. While I'm not quite ready to give up betting favorites, my game there definitely needs work. So yeah, I thought sbjj might be amused to see that.

I clearly do better on fights where I've done more research, but I also have done OK in some cases with only minimal research. Future rule, though: no betting on favorites under these conditions, only dogs. I hadn't seen enough footage on Falcao and Oliveira to justify those bets on Harris and Escudero.

I've been experimenting with a few projects toward the end of the year. One is to get just a little bit bolder at making many smaller bets on a card to reduce variance. It's been going fairly well so far, but I don't know if I'm going to be doing this long-term or not. I've also been experimenting with betting more props, mainly focusing on picking fights to go to decision (or decision winners), and picking "quickest KO/sub" on occasion. The first project is going well; the second isn't. I'm also starting to collect data on over/under and "goes to decision" odds and results to look for patterns there.

I'm not so sure about immediate rematches; I might have had a change of heart on this. Sometimes it is surprising just how different the rematch looks. Even though I bet Rua over Machida, I wasn't expecting a first round finish. And of course, there was Cung Le / Smith rematch, and K-Sos / Bonnar.

One way to protect against bad judging a bit is to also put down a bet on the fight going to decision on fights where you think the odds are decent for that. Obviously, I wish that instead of betting on Machida and "Machida by decision", I had put that second bet on "goes to decision", which I was thinking of doing. You usually get better odds with less "vig" there, also.

[SPX]

Interesting post, Svino.

Very interesting breakdown of your results, too.

To respond to a few of your points:

1. Underdogs. Yes. As I stated in my own post.

2. I think you're going to have a hard time with the gimmicky props like quickest KO, quickest sub, etc. One reason my prop record is so shitty is that I've taken a lot of props that are along the lines of quickest sub or so-and-so wins via KO or so-and-so wins in the 3rd round. I've never once had such a bet hit.

3. As for rematches, I agree that it's iffy. Sometimes rematches look just like the first fight. And often times they do not. I guess I'd need to see the actually stats on how often fighters win both the first fight and the rematch, but at this point I think it's questionable to come to the conclusion that "rematches usually look like the first fight."

[Svino]

Still pissed off about Gonzaga this year. Nothing I hate more than a sick grappler that thinks he's a kickboxer

I think Gonzaga's biggest problem is his weak takedowns. If you look back at his early fights, he was constantly going for the TD, and usually failing. He was almost forced into a kickboxer strategy.

[Svino]

I guess I'd need to see the actually stats on how often fighters win both the first fight and the rematch, but at this point I think it's questionable to come to the conclusion that "rematches usually look like the first fight."

I've heard stats about who wins rematches and I recall that it's pretty close to 50/50. But I think there could be a difference between "rematches" and "immediate rematches".

[MMA_scientist]

Good stuff guys.

Re: favorites and dogs... for whatever reason -200 to -275 is still my sweet spot. I win those bets at at least 2x the implied win rate. I did well on dogs this year though.

For me, I would have had a pretty good year, but I did way too much experimenting and way too much chasing. Disaster struck twice this year, once on Rolles/Marquart which were premeditated, so I can say that this was just negative variance. The other disaster was Sokodjou/Jardine on Shark fights. This was a pure chase, and bets that I specifically said were bad bets before the event started. If I would have eliminated that mistake from my year, I would have done pretty well. It is all stuff I already knew, but I just have trouble implementing it because I am a wild-man at heart.

Bottom line, and I think we are noticing this: a couple mistakes can cost you your year.

2011: Shit just got serious.

[Thewiseman]

I am getting very serious in 2011. Trying to up my units at least 4-5 times by spring. I want $500 units.

[Thewiseman]

Mistake of the year had to be Thiago over Kampmann and Barry over Cro-Cop. Was on both for big bets. Glad I hedged alot off of Barry though.

[Dr_Ngo]

Win Loss Net Units
Underdogs = 19 5 20.7
-100 -200 16 16 -7.5
-201 -300 23 6 5
-301 -400 8 1 5
-401 Over 2 1 -7
Total 16.2

Decision bets = Win Loss
4 0 6

Some conclusions from this data.

I rock at underdog bets. 19-5, +21 units.
-100 to -200 is a huge problem area. These are favorites and I shouldn't be negative in theory. I'm going to be more careful with these bets.
-201 to -300 is a great area for me. 23-6. A few bad decisions and flukes fucked it up for me.
-301 to -400 8-1, +5 units. Don't really think there's great value in this area as one fluke could really fuck things up.
-400 and over. -7 units, Rolles gracie, enough said.

4-0 +6U in deciding how long the fight will be. Definitely going to be playing this more in 2011.

So big theme in 2011 is I'm going to track my bets a lot deeper. Analyzing odds, strikeforce vs. ufc, etc. etc.

I encourage you guys to analyze your data as well, a lot of it was surprising to me!

[edman5555]

It seems like underdog bets work the best for all of us. Except for Scientist. He does well everywhere. I think it's because he knows wrestling/BJJ. he has a niche he understands so he does well within that realm. For the rest of us we do well when the reward exceeds the stake so that we win if we are successful a fair portion of the time. God damn they need to make sprots betting legal in Ameriaca. I mean full fledged legal. Imagine the possibilites.

In tune with that. I met a guy in a bar that was a bball better. He told me him and his freinds made 30k betting on bodog. After that, he told me bodog started lowering the odds on them. Has anyone else heard stories like this? I know some of us are hoping to make this a job. This type of action from a online bookie would be a direct threat to this,

[Luke]

Bad year for me in MMA. This was the first year I really bet MMA also. Before this year I'd bet 2-3 MMA fights a year ,this year I bet over 50 fights. I lost a little over 20 units in MMA this year due to betting too many fights,using bad money management, and betting fights I didnt have enough info on. I bet alot of fights this year just for action which I know is a no no . I won over 10 units in boxing so that helped a little bit .I've bet boxing for almost 10 years and MMA for just over a year so I'm alot better at boxing . I think for the upcoming year instead of betting 50+ MMA fights and 20 boxing I'm going to try to get it to 30 boxing and 25-30 MMA fights. I think I'm also going to cut my MMA bets down to .5 to 1.0 units and my boxing bet will be between 1-3 units.
I have a goal of 25 units next year and think I can very well get to that