Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg - Jan 29th

[Luke]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/353.png

[Mr. IWS]

Thats about as High as I will go on Diaz.

[poopoo333]

Will Jacare be able to get Lawler down?

[zY|]

Thats about as High as I will go on Diaz.

Yeah. He's going to whip up on Cyborg though.

[zY|]

Will Jacare be able to get Lawler down?

Will he even try? Jacare seems to have developed a serious case of boxitis. And the bad part is he can probably do well standing with Lawler... until he doesn't. And that will be it.

[Thewisemann]

Lawler has value IMO. Not sure if im gonna bet it though. But I will be on Diaz when 5 dimes releases the odds, hope he is @ -350.

[edman5555]

I wouldn't bet Lawler. Souza is pretty good. He has good takedowns as well. If he can get Lawler to the ground he will probably submit him too. Lawler is not too good at BJJ and we all know how good Souza is. This is a 5 round fight too isn't it? That is a lot of time to not get submitted. Souzas standup is pretty decent too, I haven't watched enough of him to know if he has boxitis.

[Svino]

The last time I thought Lawler would get a sprawl-and-brawl win, he got the crap boxed out of him by a grappler.

[MMA_scientist]

nm

[MMA_scientist]

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/rg.png



http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/rg2.png

[MMA_scientist]

I guess i don't know how to post pics

[poopoo333]

Do you guys think Santos has really any shot besides the random KO to beat Diaz? I think Santos will slow down significantly as the fight goes down, especially if it gets into the championship rounds.

[poopoo333]

::thumbup:: 3.35u on Diaz

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, Diaz has this wrapped up. The only issue is that it will probably stay standing the entire time.

[Mr. IWS]

Do you guys think Santos has really any shot besides the random KO to beat Diaz? I think Santos will slow down significantly as the fight goes down, especially if it gets into the championship rounds.

I dont even think he can randomly KO diaz. He gasses out in the second and gets finished.

[poopoo333]

I dont even think he can randomly KO diaz. He gasses out in the second and gets finished.

Yeah, and he was a gasser @ 205 and 185. With the hard (I am assuming) weight cut to 170, he is sure to gas as well, especially with Diaz's pace.

[trotterz]

IMO Jacare is a really good bet, he has excellent boxing, excellent jiu jitsu, and great wrestling. Lawler lost againt babalu standing.
Gracie IMO is going to be a lock but the odds are probably going to be somewhere aroung -600.
I will probably parlay gracie with jacare to get a line around -150 -160.

Edit: sorry guys, wrong thread

[poopoo333]

^^I really doubt Gracie is going to be -600 against Prangley.

[trotterz]

maybe not that much, but defenetely not under -300. If he does, than the line is going to move real fast. Prangley has nothing for gracie

[MMA_scientist]

I don't think Roger will be -300. Prangley is a really tough style matchup for Roger. He is a guy that Roger is going to have a world of trouble taking down, and Prangley has heavy hands and a great chin to walk through Roger's Diaz-style boxing.

I am a huge Roger fan. I think he is the greatest grappler in the world... but I could see him having trouble with Prangley. I think Roger will open in the -225 to -250 range (though I am often wrong on these things). If he opens at -600, waitm because I guarantee he won't stay there.

Jacare should win though... that we agree on.

[edman5555]

i agree on gracie. What says he can get Prangley down? If he can't, I would think he isn't outstriking him.

[poopoo333]

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/636967/291eujd_medium.jpg

[SPX]

inB4somesomeonesays"steroids"

[Mr. IWS]

So let me get this straight. Walker eats ONE meal a day?

[Luke]

So let me get this straight. Walker eats ONE meal a day?



Thats all I eat a day, of course I'm not way near that big so..........

[zY|]

You only eat one meal a day? I'm pretty damn skinny and I've eaten like 5 meals so far today.

[Luke]

You only eat one meal a day? I'm pretty damn skinny and I've eaten like 5 meals so far today.


Yeah once a day . I dont eat anything in the morning or at work then when I get home I eat a big meal around 4pm and thats it for the day. On the weekends I might eat 2 or 3 times but during the week just once.

[zY|]

Your body seriously hates you.

[Luke]

Your body seriously hates you.

For some reason its doesnt even bother me .I mean when I get home I'm hungry and ready to eat but I'm in no way starving. I dont know I've just done it so long I'm use to it but like I said I eat more than once on the weekends

[zY|]

That's because your body is in starvation mode all day. Honestly the more often I eat the hungrier I get. I just ate dinner 2 hours ago and I'm about to gnaw off my arm. Do you just find eating annoying?

[Luke]

Do you just find eating annoying?


No I dont find it annoying . I think it all started back when I worked in a factory and only had 20 minutes to eat lunch . I'd be covered with oil and dirt and have to hurry and scarf my food down since it took 5 minutes just to clean off .I hate being hurried when I'm eating ,I like to relax and enjoy my food ,so I quit eating at work and then I pretty much went to eating once a day. That was 9 years ago

[poopoo333]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH2q1jnjnHo

[Ludo]

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/rg.png



http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/rg2.png

Is that Roger?

[Ludo]

I can see his point and respect it to a degree about getting paid to move up. But insinuating that it's as easy as "getting in shape" or "working hard like me(Nick Diaz) for Miller to drop down from his walking weight of between 200-210lbs to 170lbs is ridiculous. Diaz has fought as high as 183 and 181 against Smith and Shamrock. I really don't see why he wouldn't move up again for this fight especially after he had no problem jumping Miller with his Camp.

[MMA_scientist]

Is that Roger?

Who else would have GSP mounted?

GSP has been training with Roger and Braulio, that's why I posted it. I think it is a nice fit, both for GSP's fight versus Shields and Roger's fight with Prangley.

[edman5555]

Thoughts of Souza and Lawler?

[Ludo]

Who else would have GSP mounted?

GSP has been training with Roger and Braulio, that's why I posted it. I think it is a nice fit, both for GSP's fight versus Shields and Roger's fight with Prangley.


Marcelo Garcia.

[MMA_scientist]

Thoughts of Souza and Lawler?

I have been looking at this one. I do think Jacare will win, but I am not confident he will be able to get and hold Lawler down. Most likely, he will submit Lawler, but I Lawler's striking should still be well ahead of Jacare's (despite the Babalu fight). Jacare also tends to run out of steam and Lawler could land a big shot on him, although he going to have to put him to sleep because following him down is a bad idea. That said, Jacare did not even attempt a shot on Kennedy until round 2 or 3 IIRC (and he got stuffed). When Kennedy took him down, he stood, which I thought was stupid. I fear he has fallen in love with his hands. He did take Villsenor down in rd 1 and througgout the fight. I really don't know. I think Jacare will win, but the line is well set IMO.

[edman5555]

We'll see. I put a 2.5u parlay on Nick and Jacare. I might take Jacare by sub for a quarter unit or so as well. I noticed Lawler was reluctant to engage in the standup with Renato Sobral. I figured this was because he feared the takedown + sub. I think this could be similar. I made this bet without as much research as I normally do. Hopefully that doesn't bite me in the ass. I am already arbing out of my Sergei over Andre Arlovski bet pending research.

[Luke]

I think Jacare's line is way too high

[trotterz]

I think Jacare's line is way too high

too high? you remember that lawler got oustruck by babalu?
IMO jacare's striking is better than babalu and I'm not talking about his takedowns and bjj.

[MMA_scientist]

Can Cyborg win this? Thinking about Diaz now.

[Mr. IWS]

Can Cyborg win this? Thinking about Diaz now.

I don't see how. His only path is a KO, and Diaz has an iron jaw. Maybe a cut stoppage, but Cyborg would probably gas out before it got to that point.

[Luke]

too high? you remember that lawler got oustruck by babalu?
IMO jacare's striking is better than babalu and I'm not talking about his takedowns and bjj.


Yes the line is too high imo . I had it at -150.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't see how. His only path is a KO, and Diaz has an iron jaw. Maybe a cut stoppage, but Cyborg would probably gas out before it got to that point.

Does Cyborg gas? I honestly know nothing of his work. It is a 5 rounder right? Very few guys can beat Diaz in a 5 rounder IMO. So he is going to try to blitz him and KO him? Diaz had a good chin, but i think it is more than he is a good boxer and he doesn't get hit with big unseen shots that often. He does take a lot of shots though.

[Mr. IWS]

Does Cyborg gas? I honestly know nothing of his work. It is a 5 rounder right? Very few guys can beat Diaz in a 5 rounder IMO. So he is going to try to blitz him and KO him? Diaz had a good chin, but i think it is more than he is a good boxer and he doesn't get hit with big unseen shots that often. He does take a lot of shots though.

Cyborg just never paces himself. He throws nothing but bombs (see his fight with Manhoef, which was a classic). He will probably come out guns blazing in round one, by the end of the round, be dead tired. Get subbed or Ko'd in the second.

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/353.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[trotterz]

Wow, the Gracie/Prangley line is a lot closer than I was expecting

[MMA_scientist]

Roger probably has value. It is a tough matchup, but I thought Roger would be at least -200.

Anyone know anything abouty Lawson/Keslar?

[MMA_scientist]

Isaiah Hill is 1-7 in his last 8 fights. Just sayin. I looked at Stack, and he looks pretty good solid all around guy. He trains with Gil Melendez. So it looks like a case of a serious up and comer being fed some guy who likes to get his head smashed.

Probably going to do Stack/Diaz I am still looking at Lawson and Coy

[edman5555]

Lawson is a BMX rider. He used to wrestle as well. He may have some college wrestling but I'm not sure. He has also had a lot of injuries the past couple of years. That is why he has been inactive.

[edman5555]

Thinking about some bets here. James Terry to start. Can you find anything on Lucas Gamazza?

[edman5555]

Gamazza trains at Cesar Gracie. He started doing BJJ. Hasn't fought since the end of 2009. I can't figure out how good he is though.

[edman5555]

He has gone the distance in all his fights. Hasn't submitted anyone..James hung in there standing with Tarec. James should be able to handle this kid. Sprawl and brawl if he wants. I will probably throw something on him. Maybe some parlays for this.

[Ludo]

1.45u to win 1u on Gracie

[edman5555]

Wow Ballsy bet. Prangley isn't bad....

[Luke]

Wow Ballsy bet. Prangley isn't bad....



He isnt good either

[MMA_scientist]

I am probably going to be on Roger as well. I think that Roger may outstrike him with his reach. If Prangley tries to GNP him, he'll die. 100% Roger beats him on the ground from any position. 40% chance Roger outpoints him standing. I also think Roger can take him down. Prangley is a good wrestler, but he is a lot smaller than Roger.

[edman5555]

Yeah I hear what you guys are saying but don't forget Roger has only had 3 fights for a total of about 3 rounds. Prangley has been around a while and may have the ability to keep it standing. He could conceivably outstrike Roger too..

[Ludo]

Wow Ballsy bet. Prangley isn't bad....


Yeah I hear what you guys are saying but don't forget Roger has only had 3 fights for a total of about 3 rounds. Prangley has been around a while and may have the ability to keep it standing. He could conceivably outstrike Roger too..

He's not bad, granted. However he's not great either. He's 38 years old, never even come close to cracking top 25 in the division, and he seems tailor made for Gracie here. He's not nearly long enough to present major problems unless he gets way inside on Gracie. He's not explosively athletic. His striking isn't power strike centered, and he is fairly flat footed standing. If this fight hits the ground at all Prangley loses. Roger has reach, not necessarily power but his strikes come in volume sort of like Nick Diaz' type of striking and has a strong clinch game as well. I can see Roger more or less deciding where this fight goes because I don't think Prangley would dare shoot. He almost got caught in an armbar by Jardine as well. I can see Roger getting the better of the standup as well, the pace Roger sets there could be a problem and it might just overwhelm Prangley(who struggled with Jardines combinations) if Roger starts landing cleanly.

[edman5555]

Blah my internet explorer just fucked up. Anyway Prangley might be a better striker than Roger..he has only had three fights. Prangley is also a good wrestler, south africa national champ and all american. He also has a lot more exp. Roger can win obv, but he is still green.

[Ludo]

Blah my internet explorer just fucked up. Anyway Prangley might be a better striker than Roger..he has only had three fights. Prangley is also a good wrestler, south africa national champ and all american. He also has a lot more exp. Roger can win obv, but he is still green.

Thats a given. Roger is very green and I didn't overlook that when I made the bet. I just think overall it still comes down to Prangley having never been that good on top of him being almost forty years old now. Roger also has the kinds of things it's hard to train for. Being 6'4", having the kind of jiu jitsu he does, and the striking reach to do what he wants.

It's kind of like Kendall Grove. He isn't even top 30 in the middleweight division as far as talent goes but he makes up for alot because he's so fucking long it gives people problems simply because he's able to do things most people aren't.

[Thewisemann]

Just took Gracie 1.4u for 1u

[edman5555]

.25u to win 2.25u Parlay on Nick/jacare/roger/nate coy/ bobby stack/ eric lawson/ james terry.

[edman5555]

I don't think I will be betting much of anything here other than Nick and Souza. Any guy I would like to bet on is a favorite, on top of that I can't find much info on the guys I want to look up. James Terry seems like a good bet but I can't dig up shit on Pablo Garza and I don't want to lay down -250.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Diaz for sure. Still deciding on putting something on Jacare.

[MMA_scientist]

Stack/Diaz 4u

[MMA_scientist]

1.35u on Roger

[edman5555]

Roger Gracie 2u to win 1.5u.

[edman5555]

Diaz/Walker/Stack 1u to win 1u

[MMA_scientist]

Roger Gracie 2u to win 1.5u.

Why did you change your mind? Don't curse us, we need at least one dissenter...

[edman5555]

I don't know. I'm an idiot. I should play it safe but I am not. We better pray Roger gets him to the ground. He is the best ever.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ Well you have the hot hand lately...

I was just hoping you recognized something. I really think Roger is just a winner. I like his jj because he is so cerebral. One thing I can guarantee is that Roger is coming in with a gameplan to exploit something, he is not going to just go out there and "see what happens". He sounds realistic about his limitations, and I really think he will find a way. He was starting to get the better of Randleman standing before he dropped him. And I think if he is getting beat down standing Roger will jump guard or go after a leg or something. He'll get it done. Believe.

[poopoo333]

I took a big hit @ Fight for the Troops so I am hoping to get back on the wagon this weekend. Right now I have 3.35u on Diaz and 2.6u on Coy. I want to bet Jacare, but for some reason I am just not feeling good about it so I am going to stay away unless his line drops significantly. I am planning to look at the rest of the fights later.

[MMA_scientist]

^ Lawler has a clear and somewhat viable path to victory. For me, at -240 or whatever he is, that just is not worth it, even though I do think he will win. I am trying to get back to my original rules, one of which is that I don't pay a steep price on a guy when the other guy has a very clear path to victory. You might disagree though, because if you think Jacare will be able to take him down, then Lawler is all but dead in the water. I happen to think Jacare will have a lot of trouble getting Lawler down and keeping it there. And his (Jacare's) new found love of boxing makes me somewhat wary.

[Ludo]

^ Lawler has a clear and somewhat viable path to victory. For me, at -240 or whatever he is, that just is not worth it, even though I do think he will win. I am trying to get back to my original rules, one of which is that I don't pay a steep price on a guy when the other guy has a very clear path to victory. You might disagree though, because if you think Jacare will be able to take him down, then Lawler is all but dead in the water. I happen to think Jacare will have a lot of trouble getting Lawler down and keeping it there. And his (Jacare's) new found love of boxing makes me somewhat wary.

This. Jacare would turn him into a pretzel on the ground but Lawlers sprawl is going to present him with problems, and for all we know Robbie could catch him early and win because he starts very fast whereas Souza likes to feel things out for a little bit. I definitely like Jacare to win, no doubt about it. I just don't like -260 when it's nowhere near that lopsided.

[edman5555]

I bet Roger for a few reasons. I am an action junkie for one. Also there are a few things about Prangley that make me think Roger can beat him. He is similar to Kevin Randleman in a lot of ways: height, age, wrestling background. He has also never really beaten anyone that good. I was weighing his win over Jardine a little too much before. He's getting old and he was never that good to begin with. His base is wrestling which is more or less a form of grappling and Rogers the best grappler in the world. Also how is Prangley going to push the action standing? He has to get inside to connect..if he commits to hard he could end up on the ground. That should make it easier for Roger to outpoint him. If it goes to the ground at all there is a very good chance he gets subbed or at least controlled for the remainder of the round(helps with points).

Another thing I noticed was Roger has actually been competing in MMA since 2006. He is obv green but he might have a little more knowledge than he would if he had all three of his fights in 1 year.

[poopoo333]

I think the value in the Jacare fight is probably Lawler via (T)KO @+320 or whatever it is.

[edman5555]

Also Herschel Walker looks like a good bet. This guy Carson fought 3 times about 10 years ago. Then he came back recently and got knocked out. Herschel is a pro athlete, this guy shouldn't be on his level. Also you've gotta think they are giving Herschel guys they think he can beat. I know anything can happen in there but he looked ok in his last outing and he does not seem one bit 48 years old.

[edman5555]

I took a big hit @ Fight for the Troops so I am hoping to get back on the wagon this weekend. Right now I have 3.35u on Diaz and 2.6u on Coy. I want to bet Jacare, but for some reason I am just not feeling good about it so I am going to stay away unless his line drops significantly. I am planning to look at the rest of the fights later.

Coy's opponent is a former purdue wrestler. He has the tools to beat Coy. I'm not saying it will happen but I wouldn't be shocked. Coy is pretty good though.

[poopoo333]

^^I kind of regret the bet already. I think Coy's fight with Woodley influenced my decision too much

[edman5555]

He did do very well against Woodley. He was beating him in the standup.

[edman5555]

I had money on Coy in that fight. It was very very close. I can't really say who I think will win or lose because I don't know much about Nate except he is a good wrestler and he trains at AKA.

[poopoo333]

I bet Roger for a few reasons. I am an action junkie for one. Also there are a few things about Prangley that make me think Roger can beat him. He is similar to Kevin Randleman in a lot of ways: height, age, wrestling background. He has also never really beaten anyone that good. I was weighing his win over Jardine a little too much before. He's getting old and he was never that good to begin with. His base is wrestling which is more or less a form of grappling and Rogers the best grappler in the world. Also how is Prangley going to push the action standing? He has to get inside to connect..if he commits to hard he could end up on the ground. That should make it easier for Roger to outpoint him. If it goes to the ground at all there is a very good chance he gets subbed or at least controlled for the remainder of the round(helps with points).

Another thing I noticed was Roger has actually been competing in MMA since 2006. He is obv green but he might have a little more knowledge than he would if he had all three of his fights in 1 year.

I pretty much agree on all parts. Do you guys think Gracie will be able to take Prangley down? Gracie never really actually took Randleman down, he dropped him with a knee. It's hard to pass up a bet on Gracie @-135 though...he is so dominant in grappling. I am just worried he is going to get bombed out on the feet, or be unable to get Prangley down at all.

[edman5555]

Well I don't think he absolutely has to take him down to win. He did drop Randleman with a knee, outside of that he was outpointing him on the feet. He may be able to do that to Prangley, I consider the standup a toss up now that I think about it. Prangley has exp, but Roger has reach. Prangley has to be worried about committing because he can't let Roger get ahold of him. He also can't just sit on the outside or he will get outstruck by Rogers big ass reach. It's a tough fight to call which is why I am not making a large bet on it.

[MMA_scientist]

^ i do not think Roger will be able to get him down easily, but I think he will get it there eventually, either by Prangley overestimating his ability to control Roger or by frustration with Roger's reach. Prangley's wrestling is not on Randleman's level though, fwiw. He was an AA, but he was never a wrestler like Randleman. Roger has good takedowns though, and he did take get Randleman down briefly in Rd. 1 IIRC.

[edman5555]

http://www.mmatko.com/roger-gracie-vs-kevin-randleman-fight-video-strikeforce-st-louis/

Rogers Randleman

[MMA_scientist]

Thats alot poopoo ,appreciate you finding that


Watching that fight just made me pass on the Prangley-Gracie fight

just out of curiosity, what did you see that made you pass?

On one hand, Roger is slow and didn't land shit. On the other hand, he did not take a single shot in the entire fight (Mauro made a big deal about the body shot, but it didn't look that clean to me). Then as soon as Roger starting pushing forward on the feet, he started whupping on him. I am banking that Roger's striking is more like what we saw in rd 2 when he looked like he was actually going to fight...

I don't know. It is sort of a wild card, because there is not much to judge him on. I guess it is a fan bet from me honestly, though I do think he will win. I guess the fact that I think Prangley might be worth a bet probably means I should have passed too...

[Luke]

just out of curiosity, what did you see that made you pass?

On one hand, Roger is slow and didn't land shit. On the other hand, he did not take a single shot in the entire fight (Mauro made a big deal about the body shot, but it didn't look that clean to me). Then as soon as Roger starting pushing forward on the feet, he started whupping on him. I am banking that Roger's striking is more like what we saw in rd 2 when he looked like he was actually going to fight...

I don't know. It is sort of a wild card, because there is not much to judge him on. I guess it is a fan bet from me honestly, though I do think he will win. I guess the fact that I think Prangley might be worth a bet probably means I should have passed too...


From what I heard/read I had the thought in my head that Roger just dominated Randleman in the fight (I had never seen the fight before because thats when I was in Vegas so I was just going off what I had read) When I actually saw the fight I wasnt as impressed as I thought I was going to be . Roger's striking is a little worse than I expected and I was expecting to see him takedown Randleman and submit him and he didnt take him down it was a knee that put him to the floor.If he had taken Randleman down and submitted him there wouldnt be much doubt he could do the same to Prangley. I still expect Roger to win and he may do so easily but I'd rather just sit and watch .I'm trying to be more picky about what I bet

[edman5555]

wild card is correct. It's been 8.5 months since Rogers last fight so let's hope he has spent that time improving.

[poopoo333]

UFC welterweight champion Georges Saint-Pierre has already been to London twice to train with Roger Gracie, who is getting ready for his fourth MMA bout this coming weekend.

As reported by Jack Encarnação on Sherdog.com, GSP (21w, 2l) was stopping through London in 2010 when he figured he would stop by Roger’s academy to test himself.

“I got my ass kicked pretty bad,” he said, deciding to stay on awhile an train some with Roger for his last fight, his second unanimous decision win over Josh Koscheck.

In 2011, the Canadian returned to help Roger (3w, 0l) train for his Strikeforce fight against Trevor Prangley.

“Roger is really good at taking the fight where he wants it – to the ground. He’s much better than people think. He’s not just a Jiu-Jitsu guy. Roger is a true MMA fighter,” said GSP in praise.

Besides wrestling with GSP in London, Roger also sharpened up his boxing skills with local trainer Clay O’Shea and got pointers from undefeated veteran Joe Calzaghe.

[MMA_scientist]

From what I heard/read I had the thought in my head that Roger just dominated Randleman in the fight (I had never seen the fight before because thats when I was in Vegas so I was just going off what I had read) When I actually saw the fight I wasnt as impressed as I thought I was going to be . Roger's striking is a little worse than I expected and I was expecting to see him takedown Randleman and submit him and he didnt take him down it was a knee that put him to the floor.If he had taken Randleman down and submitted him there wouldnt be much doubt he could do the same to Prangley. I still expect Roger to win and he may do so easily but I'd rather just sit and watch .I'm trying to be more picky about what I bet

I think Roger was more in control in that fight than we think. After Roger starting tagging him, Randleman tried to take him down, and Roger stuffed it. You could see a definite difference when Roger starting pouring it on. Why did he stuff a takedown? He likes to be on top yes, but a sweep would have been easier. I think he is just cautious and was waiting to find a hole to exploit. That is how he is... he finds a hole and then kills you. If you watch his grappling matches, he is a genius on the mat, and I don't mean it in hyperbole. The fight match will look somewhat even, then he finds a hole, and then next thing you see is Roger in mount choking a guy. I think he is just extremely cerebral about his approach to grappling and MMA. But a lot of his grappling matches look the same way... he doesn't look like he is dominating, then he starts crushing.

But I totally admit that Roger is my hero. So that could be clouding me quite a bit.

[Mr. IWS]

This Jacarae/Lawler fight reminds me of the Lawler/Shields fight except..........

Jacarae has better JJ, standup, and is a bigger fighter then Shields was. Seems to me more and more, that Jacarae is the play here.

[Luke]

I think Roger was more in control in that fight than we think. After Roger starting tagging him, Randleman tried to take him down, and Roger stuffed it. You could see a definite difference when Roger starting pouring it on. Why did he stuff a takedown? He likes to be on top yes, but a sweep would have been easier. I think he is just cautious and was waiting to find a hole to exploit. That is how he is... he finds a hole and then kills you. If you watch his grappling matches, he is a genius on the mat, and I don't mean it in hyperbole. The fight match will look somewhat even, then he finds a hole, and then next thing you see is Roger in mount choking a guy. I think he is just extremely cerebral about his approach to grappling and MMA. But a lot of his grappling matches look the same way... he doesn't look like he is dominating, then he starts crushing.

But I totally admit that Roger is my hero. So that could be clouding me quite a bit.


You're probably right , Gracie will probably win easily I'm just chicken

[edman5555]

This Jacarae/Lawler fight reminds me of the Lawler/Shields fight except..........

Jacarae has better JJ, standup, and is a bigger fighter then Shields was. Seems to me more and more, that Jacarae is the play here.

I agree.

[MMA_scientist]

I agree.

That is what I thought too. My concern is that Shields probably does have better takedowns than Jacare (or at least he is more persistent), and he was unable to get Lawler down. He had to jump guard into a guillotine. Jacare's servicable standup makes him more likely to use it. Shields is 100% committed to the takedown. If Jacare gets stuffed a few times, he will probably just say screw it and bang it out.

[edman5555]

You really think so? Jacare seemed like he had good takedowns in the fights that I have seen him in. I should probably watch more tape. He is also a lot bigger and stronger than Jake. He seems pretty brutish also.

[MMA_scientist]

He is a much higher level athlete than Shields, he is faster and more powerful... but he got stuffed on several takedowns against Kennedy. He also could not get Mayhem to the ground in their second fight (which Shields did quite easily). Shields knows his only way to win the fight is by takedown, and he never gives up on it. When Jacare has gotten stuffed in the past, he just starts striking. The good news is that he may very well win the striking. But I just think Lawler could very possibly force a standup fight and win it. I hope not, and Jacare should obviously be favored though.

[edman5555]

I just read the play by play for the souza kennedy fight and it was very close first of all. Second, I don't think Souza took many shots, though he did get stuffed when he did.

[MMA_scientist]

^ that's what I am saying. He WILLINGLY stood the whole fight when he couldn't get the takedown. I am concerned he will do the same thing with Lawler.

[edman5555]

just read the play by play for Souza/Villsaenor. He took Villa down a lot in that fight, almost constantly. He seems to be using a lot of ground and pound also.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, he did use his takedowns more in that fight, but then again he was successful with it almost every time. My concern is that if he does not find sucess with the takedown, he is just going to say fuck it, and start trading hands.

It is a big stink for nothing though, because even if Lawler catches him, he will have to knock him out cold, because if he goes down to finish, Jacare is going to reverse him quick and probably end it. Jacare is going to win, over 5 rounds, he will find a way to get it done. Just telling you why I am not betting it.

[edman5555]

pbp for Souza vs Mayhem 1 has Jacare taking him down multiple times.

[edman5555]

Their second fight only went 2 minutes.

[edman5555]

yeah, he did use his takedowns more in that fight, but then again he was successful with it almost every time. My concern is that if he does not find sucess with the takedown, he is just going to say fuck it, and start trading hands.

It is a big stink for nothing though, because even if Lawler catches him, he will have to knock him out cold, because if he goes down to finish, Jacare is going to reverse him quick and probably end it. Jacare is going to win, over 5 rounds, he will find a way to get it done. Just telling you why I am not betting it.

Heh ok. "Jacare is going to win" "I am not betting it" . Something does not add up here. I get it though, Lawler has heavy hands and good takedown defense.

[MMA_scientist]

^ yeah he whupped Mayhem's ass in the first fight. Mayhem willingly grappled with him and got worked. In the second fight, Mayhem tried to force a standup fight and was getting the better of Jacare until the cut. The next time we saw Jacare after that, all of the sudden, he could strike. I think it pissed him off because Mayhem was taunting him and shit. Jacare would outstrike Mayhem now IMO

[edman5555]

I have my parlay bet on diaz/souza. I don't think I will add anything else. Robbie's hands are just to ridiculously powerful.

[edman5555]

Yeah Jacare seems like a really hardworking guy. Don't ask me why, I just get that vibe from him. I would bet his hands are probably about even with Robbie skill wise, just Robbie can knock out anyone if he connects.

[MMA_scientist]

Heh ok. "Jacare is going to win" "I am not betting it" . Something does not add up here. I get it though, Lawler has heavy hands and good takedown defense.

Well I have what I think is going to happen, and I have my rules. One of those rules is not bet heavy favorites where there is a clear and viable path to victory for the underdog. I think there is a very good chance Lawler can stuff him for at least a little while, or get back to his feet. So I can't bet it. If his line was lower, I would bet it. I would bet on Lawler, but I am not betraying jiu jitsu again this month.

[edman5555]

I am thinking about placing a larger bet on Nick but I worry about betting him sometimes. He seems like he fights to entertain . I haven't seen him fight a lot but he looks like he takes a lot of damage. Santos doesn't seem to be that good though. Nick should be able to wear him out in a 5 rounder. Santos is a Black belt in bjj also, Nick seems to be a good black belt though. Correct?

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah Jacare seems like a really hardworking guy. Don't ask me why, I just get that vibe from him. I would bet his hands are probably about even with Robbie skill wise, just Robbie can knock out anyone if he connects.

I have a jj DVD called "Arte Suave". Jacare is in it and they ask him what his secret is and he says "my secret is I train 3x a day" or something like that. He is also a world class athlete. There is a vid of him somewhere climbing a 20 foot rope with 1 hand. Just hopping up up the rope with plyo pullups with 1 arm and nothing else. I would not have even thought that was possible. He is a freak athlete. And he has massive heart and balls. Roger broke his arm in the 2004 Mundials and Jacare still won the match on points. He is a bad mother fucker, don't let his silly little croc dance fool you. He is insane.

[MMA_scientist]

I am thinking about placing a larger bet on Nick but I worry about betting him sometimes. He seems like he fights to entertain . I haven't seen him fight a lot but he looks like he takes a lot of damage. Santos doesn't seem to be that good though. Nick should be able to wear him out in a 5 rounder. Santos is a Black belt in bjj also, Nick seems to be a good black belt though. Correct?

I personally think Nick has a much better ground game. I really think the key to that fight is the 5 rounds. No one has ever stopped Nick (except KJ on cuts). Cyborg gasses and Nick never tires. Cyborg basically has to knock him out early to win. Cyborg is a bb in bjj like Wandy is. I am sure they are both legit bb's (hell, Wandy has never beed subbed in like 100 fights), but Diaz is better IMO.

[edman5555]

I heard from someone on here that Santos is a gasser but is he really? If he is he might really be fucked here because this is only his second fight at 170.

[edman5555]

I just read that Santos was outstriking Melvin Manheof in their fight up until the point he got knocked out. He might actually be a decent striker.

[MMA_scientist]

Santos is a go for broke type, old school Wanderlei Silva type. He just comes out and starts chucking punches until someone falls over. But in his last couple fights, he has been a little more tactical. He has power, and he could put Nick to sleep. But with Nick talking about becoming a pro boxer and what not, I have to assume he can deal with the brawling for a few mintues.

[MMA_scientist]

Thinking about taking the arb on Roger now. He is down to -180 and I can get Prangley @ +150. I only have 1.35 u on Roger @ -135 though, so not really worth it.

[edman5555]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au_9NoNUErg

Theres manhoef/cyborg.

I get exactly what your saying and I think the same thing more or less. I also don't buy the whole so and so can't get knocked out. People seem to have that attitude about nick. Everyone can get put to sleep. I was probably dumb to parlay nick and jacare together. They are both fighting guys with huge power.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ if you look at that fight, by the 4 minute mark, Cyborg's hands are at his waist, Nick would be boxing his face while he stood around like that.

I don't believe in the iron chin theory either. I think it is more that some guys don't blink and see the punches coming. They stay in the pocket and there are no surprise punches. If you catch a guy right, he will go to sleep, no one is immune.

[edman5555]

Herschel might be a good bet. His opponent looks like another can. I don't think strikeforce wants him losing. He is worth a lot of money to them. He is very very marketable. Everytime he fights it is a story on ESPN.

[edman5555]

I might throw a lot on him tomorrow. I can't find any tape on his opponent though. That is the only thing that is stopping me.

[MMA_scientist]

I am not betting on Hershel as a favorite no matter what. He didn't look very good to me in his first fight. I don't care if he fighting a guy that is 0-9. If he is @ -odds, I am not betting it.

[zY|]

http://strikeforce.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/001_Group_Shot.jpg

Look how long Jacare's arm is. LAWL-er is so fucked.

[edman5555]

Heh.

[Mr. IWS]

Look how long Jacare's arm is. LAWL-er is so fucked.

LAWL

[Dr_Ngo]

My plays tonight

Diaz at 3.4 U at -340

Lawler 1U at +190
Prangley 1U at +160

Think Prangley has a lot of value with his experience. From what I saw with Jacare he's in love with his hands now and can get knocked out by Lawler.

[Dr_Ngo]

Man trying to find some info on Scott Carson.

No way a 50 yr old man who's had ONE fight should be -350.

[poopoo333]

http://mmaaddicts.com/dann/strikeforce-diaz-cyborg/jenna-castillo-charlene-gellner.JPG

[Mr. IWS]

^^^^^^^^^ Hope I can get a decent line on Travis Barker tonight.

[Ludo]

Man trying to find some info on Scott Carson.

No way a 50 yr old man who's had ONE fight should be -350.

Normally I'd agree. But given the fighter they picked for him has five fights, four of which happened between ten and twelve years ago and the last one being a first round loss.

Fun fact- Scott Carsons opponents' have a combined record of 8-8, 7 of those wins by Lorenz Larkin(his last opponent) who is 7-0. Scott Carson has defeated four opponents with a combined record of 1-8.

If I wasn't so confident that Strikeforce hand picked this guy for Walker I'd toss something on Carson but as it stands it's a no bet for Me. Good luck, guys!

[SPX]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au_9NoNUErg

Theres manhoef/cyborg.


That fight was lulz on multiple levels.

[SPX]

The fact that a guy who is 1-1 in Strikeforce, and only holds one win at welterweight, is getting a title shot proves that the WW division in SF is incredibly thin and they need to get some new talent pronto.

[Luke]

The fact that a guy who is 1-1 in Strikeforce, and only holds one win at welterweight, is getting a title shot proves that the WW division in SF is incredibly thin and they need to get some new talent pronto.


Samething happens in the UFC

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^ Hope I can get a decent line on Travis Barker tonight.


LOL travis barker

[zY|]

Samething happens in the UFC

Only in the MW or HW division.

[Luke]

Only in the MW or HW division.


lol ,only . You're funny zy

[Luke]

Sherdog is streaming the prelims of this event starting at 8:15pm eastern which is in 10 minutes here:

http://www.sherdog.com/events/Strikeforce-Diaz-vs-Cyborg-15507

[zY|]

lol ,only . You're funny zy

?

[zY|]

Travis Barker is getting his ass kicked.

[poopoo333]

dayum Barker got fucked up. Are they really going to get 5 more fights in by 10pm?

[Luke]

Are they really going to get 5 more fights in by 10pm?

LOL thats what I was wondering

[zY|]

I think TJ and Jordan are better than Goldberg and Rogan.

[Luke]

I think TJ and Jordan are better than Goldberg and Rogan.

I sense sarcasm but personally I'd rather listen to these guys

[zY|]

I was being serious.

And that chick? That's a man, man.

[Svino]

I think TJ and Jordan are better than Goldberg and Rogan.

I sense no sarcasm and I agree.

[Svino]

Damn, I just can't find any bets I want to make on this card. Too much having to speculate on the striking abilities of grapplers, guys I barely have any footage of, and other crap.

[zY|]

I'm digging this assembly line of guys rolling into the cage nonstop.

[poopoo333]

Jesus Christ. Sorry Edman and Scientist

[Ludo]

I'm digging this assembly line of guys rolling into the cage nonstop.

That lasted a while...

[Luke]

I'm digging this assembly line of guys rolling into the cage nonstop.


LOL no kidding .We were wondering how they were going to get 5 fights in in 90 minutes and they're starting a new fight every 7 minutes

[Mr. IWS]

After all that shit I talked, I didnt pull the trigger on Jacare. GL to everyone tonight.

[Luke]

After all that shit I talked, I didnt pull the trigger on Jacare. GL to everyone tonight.

I still think its alot closer than everyone else does......of course I've won 1 of my last 9 fights so......

[poopoo333]

GL everyone.


WAR COY

[Svino]

This is interesting. I was really expecting one of those Bad Kickboxing matches between wrestlers, but there's some good grappling here.

[Mr. IWS]

WAR CHASE CHEVROLET!!!111!!

[poopoo333]

son of a motherfucking cock

[Luke]

He just got KTFO

[Luke]

son of a motherfucking cock


Sorry poopoo, just keeps happening to us

[poopoo333]

That bet was looking good too. Coy definitely had the advantage on the mat, but then proceeds to get KTFO. oh well, I better just hope Souza and Diaz win tonight to minimize the losses.

[Ludo]

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-strikeforce.html

[poopoo333]

I fucking hate Frank Shamrock

[Luke]

I fucking hate Frank Shamrock


+1

[zY|]

Yeah seriously. Can we just have Mauro and Miletich?

[Ludo]

Yeah seriously. Can we just have Miletich?


Fixed it for you.

[poopoo333]

God damnit I shouldn't have been a pussy

[edman5555]

nice

[Ludo]

Fuckin' A right!

[Svino]

Glad to see Roger getting it done.

[poopoo333]

But yeah that was real impressive.

[SPX]

So Prangley's basically the guy they bring in to lose to dudes they're trying to build up.

[Luke]

Damn, should have bet Gracie that was way too easy

[zY|]

Ok, Roger's control when Prangley tried to buck out of mount was fucking INSANE

[Svino]

Ok, Roger's control when Prangley tried to buck out of mount was fucking INSANE

Yeah, that was awesome.

[Luke]

LOL Cain on tv at a strikeforce event

[zY|]

Fixed it for you.

I was going to defend Mauro, but he just said MC Hammer's favorite move is the hammerfist. Now I wish a pox upon his family.

[SPX]

I have a feeling this dude's gonna win.

[SPX]

Nevermind.

[Dr_Ngo]

No homo but Walker has a SICK body, no matter what age

[SPX]

Congrats, Luke.

I see you made that bet.

[poopoo333]

Walker vs Overeem please

[zY|]

Did Frank just ask Pat what his pick for the Super Bowl was, and get completely ignored?

[Svino]

A 220 lb guy and a 214 lb guy -- that's one of the lightest HW fights I've ever seen.

[Svino]

Did Frank just ask Pat what his pick for the Super Bowl was, and get completely ignored?

Yeah, sounded like an audio / equipment failure though.

[zY|]

Yeah, sounded like an audio / equipment failure though.

Thanks, but I prefer it my way.

[poopoo333]

Did Frank just ask Pat what his pick for the Super Bowl was, and get completely ignored?

Yes

[SPX]

No homo but Walker has a SICK body, no matter what age

I agree. Dude looks 200x better than 90% of the guys half his age.

Awesome Bruce avatar also, BTW.

[zY|]

Jacare is such a badass. I hope he doesn't get knocked out.

[Dr_Ngo]

Channelsurf stream is high quality but laggy as fuck

[zY|]

my stream is lagging its fucking ass off

[Dr_Ngo]

Money on lawler, lets go baby!

[zY|]

Sopcast stream looks like ass but runs smooth.

And don't you fuck up my title fight John McCarthy with your ultra lame standups.

[Dr_Ngo]

Awesome Bruce avatar also, BTW.

thanks!

[Dr_Ngo]

Fuck Jacare is scary on the ground

Props to lawler for those armbar escapes.

rnd 1 lawler
rnd 2 jacare

[SPX]

Great sub defense from Lawler.

[zY|]

Sick fight!

[Svino]

I think Jacare should encourage those scrambles. Very good strategy to keep top control for most of the round, then go for some submissions at the end. That's what I like to see in a fighter.

[SPX]

Of course.

[poopoo333]

OMFG I WON A BET!! the best part was seeing the alligator at the end

[edman5555]

i was going to take souza to submit lawler. i thought he would

[Dr_Ngo]

Anyone else think Jacare could be #1 MW?

Would rape Anderson on the ground and easily submit Sonnen.

[zY|]

Grappling tonight is the illest.

[zY|]

Anyone else think Jacare could be #1 MW?

Would rape Anderson on the ground and easily submit Sonnen.

Yeah he'd have a real good shot of tapping Anderson, but I think more likely he gets lamped. And he'd beat Sonnen of course. Terrible match up for Chael.

[poopoo333]

I want to see Jacare vs Maia in MMA.

[Svino]

Anyone else think Jacare could be #1 MW?

Would rape Anderson on the ground and easily submit Sonnen.

I've thought for a long time that he could beat Anderson. Of course, I think the same about Shields and GSP.

Edit: He and Anderson would never fight though: they're like best buds.

[Dr_Ngo]

Think Shields actually would have a better chance vs. Silva than GSP. More accustomed to Middleweight and he survived a Hendo overhand.

[Dr_Ngo]

I want to see Jacare vs Maia in MMA.

Jacare by being superior in every aspect

[poopoo333]

Think Shields actually would have a better chance vs. Silva than GSP. More accustomed to Middleweight and he survived a Hendo overhand.

I agree. I really wish Shields came to the UFC as a MW instead.

[zY|]

I want to see Jacare vs Maia in MMA.

I'd like to see Jacare vs Shields.

Think Jacare schools him.

[Luke]

Timothy Bradley ................that is all

[Svino]

Shields would have to work harder to get the takedown against Anderson than GSP, and he'd be much more outmatched in the standup. If Silva vs. GSP ever happens, I'm going heavy on GSP.

[Svino]

Insane fight.

[zY|]

fucking wow

[zY|]

Shields would have to work harder to get the takedown against Anderson than GSP, and he'd be much more outmatched in the standup. If Silva vs. GSP ever happens, I'm going heavy on GSP.

I think shields has a chance against Silva, but gets absolutely schooled against GSP.

[Svino]

I think shields has a chance against Silva, but gets absolutely schooled against GSP.

Yeah. I've got money on GSP over Shields, even at steep odds.

[zY|]

Jesus fuck, what an insane fight that was./

[Dr_Ngo]

I agree. I really wish Shields came to the UFC as a MW instead.

It's all about $.

Mw has plenty of contenders: Belfort, Sonnen rematch, Okami, Bisping, etc.
WW has already been cleared out by GSP. If it wasn't for Shields it'll be rematch central...Koscheck, then fitch

[poopoo333]

war diaz

[Svino]

Yeah, I'm sure Dana tried to push Shields into WW.

Anyway, great fight and a great card overall.

[Luke]

How many fights did Strikeforce put on tonight including the prelims? 11 ? Not a single decision

[poopoo333]

If I didn't make that stupid fucking Coy bet I'd be up 2u but instead I am down 0.6u.

[Luke]

Regardless of the result I was not impressed with Diaz's performance

[poopoo333]

Regardless of the result I was not impressed with Diaz's performance

x2

[Svino]

Strikeforce: St. Louis was pretty awesome, too -- with those 4 KO's. Maybe this is the year Strikeforce turns it around.

[Ludo]

+1u

[zY|]

He wasn't bad, other than not checking leg kicks. If anything, I was very impressed with Cyborg. He's never ever looked that good.

[Svino]

Yeah, I think Cyborg was doing a better job in the standup against Diaz than K.J. Noons was, and everyone gushes over Noons' striking.

[Mr. IWS]

Did anyone find out who Diaz was freaking out at outside the cage after the fight? Mayhem?

[poopoo333]

Did anyone find out who Diaz was freaking out at outside the cage after the fight? Mayhem?

No. Diaz or Coker didn't say who it was in interviews with Helwani. I'm sure it'll come out sometime this week

[poopoo333]

I think it was just a group of fans.

http://i56.tinypic.com/339ugqc.jpg

People were saying it was Cyborg but they were behind her

http://i52.tinypic.com/2mqvvxy.jpg

[Luke]

I read someone threw a full can of pop/beer/something at him

[Mr. IWS]

My wife thought it was Cyborg too, but as big a dick as Diaz is, I couldnt see him doing that.

[Luke]

I just rewatched the end and still cant figure out who it was

[MMA_scientist]

I can't believe I lost another large bet. Stack got triangled by a guy that is 1-7 in the last 2 years. I am going kamikaze next week.

But I was so happy to see Roger and all the jj in the other fights that I didn't even care. The way Roger took the back, he never opened his guard, little shit like that is underappreciated. I cannot even physically perform that maneuver (pulling myself to the back without breaking the legs open to kick for momentum or push off), and Roger just throws around a very fine grappler in Prangley like he is a wb.

Anyway- kamikaze, it is happening.

[edman5555]

I already put a little bit down on Forrest to win and Forrest to win by decision.

[poopoo333]

I want to hear more about the kamikaze

[MMA_scientist]

I want to hear more about the kamikaze

KAMIKAZE.

[Thewisemann]

KAMIKAZE.

Go Kamikaze on Jones. All in.

[poopoo333]

Go Kamikaze on Jones. All in.

errr

[Ludo]

Torres is probably a better kamikaze pick.

[Luke]

Not doing it is probably a better kamikaze pick.


fixed it for you

[poopoo333]

Kamikaze on Chad Mendes

[MMA_scientist]

If I were going to do it, I would do it on Torres of the current fights at the current lines. I actually already bet on Bader and I think Omigawa could give Mendez some trouble as well. This is not a gidd Kamikaze card, because I already have bets on Belfort, Bader, and Griffin. I also have a long magic parlay rounding out from the last UFC which includes "not banuelos by submission" and "not franklin by submission".

I am still going to do it though (kamikaze bet). I am to the point where I need to take a step back... somewhere along the way I went horribly wrong. I am down like 1/3 of my bankroll since last November. So I am going to go to the formula that I used to build my bankroll, which is essentially a 5u bankroll. When I came on this site about a year ago, I had a 10k bankroll... I had to cash out some of it for life use, and then I lost a good chunk recently. I am going to go all in with my $3500 and get it up to at least $7k before tax time. Or I am going to go down in glorious kamikaze flames. Then I will take a few months off and reload and start over. But at this point, I feel the kamikaze bankroll building method is best for me. I also need to start a rigorous bankroll management system after the successfull re-build.

I am going to look at all the fights in the next couple weeks. I will probably do 1/3 or 1/4 on a few different fights. I need a poll on the upcoming fights.

[edman5555]

I don't know if Torres is a good kamikaze bet. I don't know much about Banuelos other than the fact that he is a collegiate wrestler but I usually don't like to bet against the wrestler.

[poopoo333]

Kamikaze on the biggest underdog on the card. DO IT!

[Luke]

If I were going to do it, I would do it on Torres of the current fights at the current lines. I actually already bet on Bader and I think Omigawa could give Mendez some trouble as well. This is not a gidd Kamikaze card, because I already have bets on Belfort, Bader, and Griffin. I also have a long magic parlay rounding out from the last UFC which includes "not banuelos by submission" and "not franklin by submission".

I am still going to do it though (kamikaze bet). I am to the point where I need to take a step back... somewhere along the way I went horribly wrong. I am down like 1/3 of my bankroll since last November. So I am going to go to the formula that I used to build my bankroll, which is essentially a 5u bankroll. When I came on this site about a year ago, I had a 10k bankroll... I had to cash out some of it for life use, and then I lost a good chunk recently. I am going to go all in with my $3500 and get it up to at least $7k before tax time. Or I am going to go down in glorious kamikaze flames. Then I will take a few months off and reload and start over. But at this point, I feel the kamikaze bankroll building method is best for me. I also need to start a rigorous bankroll management system after the successfull re-build.

I am going to look at all the fights in the next couple weeks. I will probably do 1/3 or 1/4 on a few different fights. I need a poll on the upcoming fights.


^^^^^If you plan on doing this for a good portion of your income someday this is not a good idea to do now,later ,ever. When we lose 4 ,5,10 units in a small amount of time its never a good idea to try and get it all back at once .How are we/you/us ever going to learn to regroup if our solution is to just chase your losses big to play catch up? Thats part of the game ,figuring out whats going wrong ,adjusting it and moving on .

Its not just you MMAscientist theres other people here that were doing just fine and all the sudden hit a bad spot and now they too what to start betting big. Part of the gambling game is stick to money management . Theres one guy on here that use to chase all the time but I'm really happy to see he isnt anymore

I'm not saying this to criticize because its your money so do whatever you think is best but I thought the point of this place was so we all got better together and learn from our mistakes. I'm saying this as a friend and someone that wants to see everyone make a ton doing this someday

[MMA_scientist]

^ I actually think Belfort has a really good chance and he is +225 or so...

[MMA_scientist]

^^^^^If you plan on doing this for a good portion of your income someday this is not a good idea to do now,later ,ever. When we lose 4 ,5,10 units in a small amount of time its never a good idea to try and get it all back at once .How are we/you/us ever going to learn to regroup if our solution is to just chase your losses big to play catch up? Thats part of the game ,figuring out whats going wrong ,adjusting it and moving on .

Its not just you MMAscientist theres other people here that were doing just fine and all the sudden hit a bad spot and now they too what to start betting big. Part of the gambling game is stick to money management . Theres one guy on here that use to chase all the time but I'm really happy to see he isnt anymore

I'm not saying this to criticize because its your money so do whatever you think is best but I thought the point of this place was so we all got better together and learn from our mistakes. I'm saying this as a friend and someone that wants to see everyone make a ton doing this someday

I have given up on every making a living doing this, because I would need a bankroll somewhere in the 1-2 million dollar range to actually earn an income off it. So it is more about "investing" to build a stack for me. I won't ever be able to make an income off it.

But your point is still true, and I have always acknowledged that. I guess I am getting to the point where I want to be either out or in. I am tired of playing small stakes. So I am to the point where I can either get my bankroll up and then start making good bets or go down in flames, call it a failed experiment and get insterested in the stock market again (that was my former passion).

But I concede the point, you are 100% right.

[poopoo333]

^^I hope your kamikaze works out so you stick around.

[edman5555]

I feel like Jon Jones is probably the best bet. Maybe I am way off on that. I know you see value in Bader but I think Jones will beat him. The main reasons I think so are JJ has destroyed every other wrestler he has faced: Jake O brien, Matt Hamill, Vlady, and Brandon Vera(he was able to stop Randy from taking him down)) and lastly, he has a 10 inch reach advantage. Oh and he has also been training to fight wrestlers for the past couple of years now, one camp after another to prepare him for a wrestler. Bader has been doing well himself but he doesn't seem as quick with his strikes(I may have to go and watch some tape). From what I hear his fight with Nog was somewhat close and Jardine won the second round before getting knocked out. Jardine also has been doign really really shitty. It may not be wise to take away from Baders wins because he has been winning, but I just don't see that much in him. He seems like he wins by being a wrestler that can slug.

Jon Jones just seems to be so ridiculously talented, mature and just flat out gifted. He looks remarkably calm before he enters the cage, and he destroys everyone. Hamill and Vera had to have surgery on their faces. And again he has the longest reach in the ufc.

[edman5555]

I am in a similar position. I can't see myself ever making a big living doing this. I am sick of the ups and downs, especially after the amount of time I have put into this. I am going to make some big bets probably. I'm going to go Kamikaze. I hope it works out, either way it won't kill me. It would be nice to get some cash though. I am basically going to do the same thing as Scientist. If it all works out I am probably just going to make smaller bets a lot more and wait for single bets I feel really confident in and load up. I am lacking in discipline and I know this isn't helping but I am mad I lost everything I made this month. I am still about even but I am still upset about it. I will probably dump a lot on Cerrone and Jones. Pending some research..
But I concede the point, you are 100% right.[/QUOTE]

[MMA_scientist]

Luke the issue I am having is a lot like yours lately. I still feel I correctly handicap most of the fights. So I think I am actually pretty good at "seeing" fights and handicapping, but lately, I am just making the wrong bets. Then afterward, I usually see where I made a mistake, but it is always something I failed to consider. I am starting to think that the variables are too great, that there are just too many variables to pin down a fight with any accuracy. I suppose the way around that is to never pay a price to bet, ie no favorites. But that is a long slow arduous trek.