3-15-11 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

03-15-2011, 10:59 AM

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Mr. IWS

03-15-2011, 02:56 PM

BIG AL MCMORDIE

100% CLEMSON/UAB NCAA "PLAY-IN" WINNER
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers plus the points over Clemson. A lot of the talking heads are making noise about the inclusion of UAB in the NCAA Tournament -- and I can't disagree with that assessment, given that schools such as St. Mary's, Colorado and Virginia Tech were left out -- but I wouldn't have included Clemson, either, in the 68-team field. Indeed, when one compares the resumes of UAB and Clemson, one finds that the Tigers had 0 victories vs. any teams from the RPI-Top 50. Its best wins this season were against Boston College, Virginia Tech and Florida State, but none of those were true road games. Indeed, the only true road games that Clemson won were at Charleston, Georgia Tech, and Miami, and none of those teams are in the Tourney this year. I don't like laying points with teams who fit that kind of profile. UAB, for its part, at least accomplished something this year, and that was to win its Conference's regular season crown. The Blazers were 12-4 in the league, but fell to 8th-seeded East Carolina in the quarterfinal round of the C-USA Tourney. But before that game, UAB had won and covered seven of eight games! UAB plays at a VERY slow tempo (62.9 possessions per game (318th in country), and that will make it more difficult for Clemson to break away from the Blazers. Indeed, UAB was 7-1 ATS as underdogs of +2 or more points this year. And Clemson is an awful 10-32 ATS since 1991 as favorites away from home vs. foes off a pointspread loss (including 0-7 ATS in post-season games)! Clemson also favors a slow tempo (65 possessions per game (253rd in country), so I look for a very low-scoring game tonight. Grab the points with UAB. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.