4-11-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' 10* VERY EARLY ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Rangers bring the much better record to the table. However, I feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason. Verlander gets the call and he's 1-0 with a solid 3.86 ERA and superb 0.929 WHIP in two starts, both of which came on the road. In 14 innings, he's already got an impressive 17 K's. Last time out, he beat the Orioles. With that victory, the Tigers are now 6-2 his last eight starts. Note that Verlander's victory over the O's marked the 10th straight start, dating back to last August, that Verlander had pitched a minimum of six complete innings. In fact, he averaged a whopping 7.4 innings per outing, over that 10-game stretch. Now Verlander pitches at Detroit, where he really dominates. Dating back to last August, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 his last five home starts. During that stretch, Verlander allowed a mere five combined runs through 38 innings. That translates to a stellar 1.18 ERA. Looking back a bit further finds the Tigers at 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts here and 17-3 his last 20 starts here. It doesn't get much better than that. Of course, the Rangers know all about how dominant Verlander can be. They're just 1-7 against him. In those eight starts, Verlander was 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.115 WHIP. That includes a 5-0 record with a superb 1.66 ERA in his last six starts against Texas. Verlander's last four home starts vs. Texas saw the Tigers win by a combined score of 24-9. Admittedly, Ogando has also been impressive. However, he's only made one start - and that came against Seattle, the weakest-hitting team in the majors. This figures to be a much tougher matchup. Given the Tigers' awesome record when Verlander pitchers at home, given Verlander's fantastic stats vs. the Rangers and given the fact that the Tigers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were a host in this series, I believe the current price is more than fair. *10I'm playing on DETROIT. The Rangers bring the much better record to the table. However, I feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason. Verlander gets the call and he's 1-0 with a solid 3.86 ERA and superb 0.929 WHIP in two starts, both of which came on the road. In 14 innings, he's already got an impressive 17 K's. Last time out, he beat the Orioles. With that victory, the Tigers are now 6-2 his last eight starts. Note that Verlander's victory over the O's marked the 10th straight start, dating back to last August, that Verlander had pitched a minimum of six complete innings. In fact, he averaged a whopping 7.4 innings per outing, over that 10-game stretch. Now Verlander pitches at Detroit, where he really dominates. Dating back to last August, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 his last five home starts. During that stretch, Verlander allowed a mere five combined runs through 38 innings. That translates to a stellar 1.18 ERA. Looking back a bit further finds the Tigers at 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts here and 17-3 his last 20 starts here. It doesn't get much better than that. Of course, the Rangers know all about how dominant Verlander can be. They're just 1-7 against him. In those eight starts, Verlander was 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.115 WHIP. That includes a 5-0 record with a superb 1.66 ERA in his last six starts against Texas. Verlander's last four home starts vs. Texas saw the Tigers win by a combined score of 24-9. Admittedly, Ogando has also been impressive. However, he's only made one start - and that came against Seattle, the weakest-hitting team in the majors. This figures to be a much tougher matchup. Given the Tigers' awesome record when Verlander pitchers at home, given Verlander's fantastic stats vs. the Rangers and given the fact that the Tigers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were a host in this series, I believe the current price is more than fair. 10 *

Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP

I'm playing on Charlotte and New Jersey to finish OVER the total. These teams both played yesterday. That being the case and with both teams long out of the playoff race, I don't expect to see much defensive intensity tonight. The Bobcats combined with the Pistons for 213 points yesterday, suffering a 112-101 loss. With the playoffs no longer in their plans, they've now seen three straight games finish above the total, each of them finishing with at least 213 combined points. Note that the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 3-0 the last three times that they played the second of back to back games. Those games had combined scores of 213, 220 and 207. The Nets saw yesterday's game at Toronto stay below the total, a 99-92 loss. However, the OVER is still a profitable 5-2 their last seven games. Each of their previous six games finished with greater than 200 combined points. In fact, those games averaged a whopping 216.5 points. Note that the Nets have seen the OVER go 13-8 when playing the second of back to back games, including a 5-1 OVER mark their last six in that situation. Those six games averaged 220.67 points. Games here have averaged 191.6 points on the season. With the Nets playing their home finale - and with a pair of teams that no longer seem to care too much about playing defense - I expect tonight's final score to finish comfortably above that average. 10 *


Burns' BEST BET

I'm playing on Chicago and Houston UNDER the total. Both these pitchers bring ugly stats to the table. However, its important not to over-react to one or two games and I believe both are poised for much better performances. After his last outing, where he had 6 Ks and 0 walks through seven complete innings, Dempster was quoted as saying: "I like the way I was throwing the ball." Note that he's 2-1 with a superb 2.43 ERA in his last five visits to Houston. Figueroa struggled in his opener. However, he posted a stellar 2.45 ERA in winning his two starts against the Cubs last season and he had a solid 3.22 EAR in 18 appearances for the Astros overall last season. Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Cubs have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 74-42-6 the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. That includes a 42-24-3 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Astros have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 39-19-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. Dempster has seen the UNDER go 14-7-1 in 22 starts vs. Houston, including 11-4 the last 15. Figueroa has seen the UNDER go 5-1-2 vs. the Cubs, including 5-0-2 his last seven. He allowed four earned runs or less in all eight of those stats, three or less in six of them. These same two pitchers squared off late last season. The O/U line was eight and the teams combined for just four runs. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 8*


Burns' 10* "PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Admittedly, the Mariners have been struggling. Their recent results have worked in our favor here though, as they've kept the price on this "pitching mismatch" to a reasonable level. Hernandez gets the call for the M's and he's among the best around. True, he did lose his last game. However, that was at Texas and he still only allowed two earned runs through seven complete innings. Now, he's back in the pitcher-friendly Pacific-Northwest, where he really tends to dominate. In his other start this season, he tossed a complete game and allowed just five hits (0 walks) and two runs. Seattle won by a score of 6-2. Now, Hernandez makes his 2011 home debut, where he absolutely dominates. In his last seven starts here, Felix has allowed a mere five combined runs, including 0 in four of those games, over 54 2/3 innings. For starters, that's nearly eight innings per start. Even better, that translates to a simply superb 0.82 ERA. Not surprisingly, the M's were 6-1 in those games. Going back further and we find that Hernandez has gone greater than six innings in 12 straight home starts, while allowing three earned runs or less in all 12 of them. In fact, in 11 of those 12 starts, he went a minimum of seven complete innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs or less in ALL 11 of them. Hernandez will face a Toronto lineup that just struck out 15 times against Jered Weaver yesterday, while getting only one run on four hits. In his lone start vs. the Jays last season, Hernandez allowed just one earned run and only two hits through eight complete innings. He was a "hard-luck loser" on that day though, dropping a 1-0 decision. While the M's bats aren't exactly "on fire," Hernandez should still receive considerably more run support here - and he generally doesn't need much. Litsch is fortunate to have a 3.94 ERA in three starts vs. Seattle, as he has an ugly 1.875 WHIP in those games. (That means he's allowed nearly two baserunners per inning.) He's given up 10 hits in each of his last two starts against the M's and the Jays are 0-3 in his three career starts against them. Litsch was mediocre in his lone start this season and that was at home vs. Oakland. Now, he's on the road - and the Jays are 4-11 his last 15 road starts. Note that he lasted less than six innings in nine of those starts, too. I mention that as the Jays bullpen has been seeing some work lately, given Saturday's 14 inning affair. All things considered, I believe the price is very reasonable. 10*

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' 10* VERY EARLY ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Rangers bring the much better record to the table. However, I feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason. Verlander gets the call and he's 1-0 with a solid 3.86 ERA and superb 0.929 WHIP in two starts, both of which came on the road. In 14 innings, he's already got an impressive 17 K's. Last time out, he beat the Orioles. With that victory, the Tigers are now 6-2 his last eight starts. Note that Verlander's victory over the O's marked the 10th straight start, dating back to last August, that Verlander had pitched a minimum of six complete innings. In fact, he averaged a whopping 7.4 innings per outing, over that 10-game stretch. Now Verlander pitches at Detroit, where he really dominates. Dating back to last August, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 his last five home starts. During that stretch, Verlander allowed a mere five combined runs through 38 innings. That translates to a stellar 1.18 ERA. Looking back a bit further finds the Tigers at 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts here and 17-3 his last 20 starts here. It doesn't get much better than that. Of course, the Rangers know all about how dominant Verlander can be. They're just 1-7 against him. In those eight starts, Verlander was 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.115 WHIP. That includes a 5-0 record with a superb 1.66 ERA in his last six starts against Texas. Verlander's last four home starts vs. Texas saw the Tigers win by a combined score of 24-9. Admittedly, Ogando has also been impressive. However, he's only made one start - and that came against Seattle, the weakest-hitting team in the majors. This figures to be a much tougher matchup. Given the Tigers' awesome record when Verlander pitchers at home, given Verlander's fantastic stats vs. the Rangers and given the fact that the Tigers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were a host in this series, I believe the current price is more than fair. *10I'm playing on DETROIT. The Rangers bring the much better record to the table. However, I feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason. Verlander gets the call and he's 1-0 with a solid 3.86 ERA and superb 0.929 WHIP in two starts, both of which came on the road. In 14 innings, he's already got an impressive 17 K's. Last time out, he beat the Orioles. With that victory, the Tigers are now 6-2 his last eight starts. Note that Verlander's victory over the O's marked the 10th straight start, dating back to last August, that Verlander had pitched a minimum of six complete innings. In fact, he averaged a whopping 7.4 innings per outing, over that 10-game stretch. Now Verlander pitches at Detroit, where he really dominates. Dating back to last August, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 his last five home starts. During that stretch, Verlander allowed a mere five combined runs through 38 innings. That translates to a stellar 1.18 ERA. Looking back a bit further finds the Tigers at 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts here and 17-3 his last 20 starts here. It doesn't get much better than that. Of course, the Rangers know all about how dominant Verlander can be. They're just 1-7 against him. In those eight starts, Verlander was 6-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.115 WHIP. That includes a 5-0 record with a superb 1.66 ERA in his last six starts against Texas. Verlander's last four home starts vs. Texas saw the Tigers win by a combined score of 24-9. Admittedly, Ogando has also been impressive. However, he's only made one start - and that came against Seattle, the weakest-hitting team in the majors. This figures to be a much tougher matchup. Given the Tigers' awesome record when Verlander pitchers at home, given Verlander's fantastic stats vs. the Rangers and given the fact that the Tigers are 12-2 the last 14 times that they were a host in this series, I believe the current price is more than fair. 10 *

Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP

I'm playing on Charlotte and New Jersey to finish OVER the total. These teams both played yesterday. That being the case and with both teams long out of the playoff race, I don't expect to see much defensive intensity tonight. The Bobcats combined with the Pistons for 213 points yesterday, suffering a 112-101 loss. With the playoffs no longer in their plans, they've now seen three straight games finish above the total, each of them finishing with at least 213 combined points. Note that the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 3-0 the last three times that they played the second of back to back games. Those games had combined scores of 213, 220 and 207. The Nets saw yesterday's game at Toronto stay below the total, a 99-92 loss. However, the OVER is still a profitable 5-2 their last seven games. Each of their previous six games finished with greater than 200 combined points. In fact, those games averaged a whopping 216.5 points. Note that the Nets have seen the OVER go 13-8 when playing the second of back to back games, including a 5-1 OVER mark their last six in that situation. Those six games averaged 220.67 points. Games here have averaged 191.6 points on the season. With the Nets playing their home finale - and with a pair of teams that no longer seem to care too much about playing defense - I expect tonight's final score to finish comfortably above that average. 10 *


Burns' BEST BET

I'm playing on Chicago and Houston UNDER the total. Both these pitchers bring ugly stats to the table. However, its important not to over-react to one or two games and I believe both are poised for much better performances. After his last outing, where he had 6 Ks and 0 walks through seven complete innings, Dempster was quoted as saying: "I like the way I was throwing the ball." Note that he's 2-1 with a superb 2.43 ERA in his last five visits to Houston. Figueroa struggled in his opener. However, he posted a stellar 2.45 ERA in winning his two starts against the Cubs last season and he had a solid 3.22 EAR in 18 appearances for the Astros overall last season. Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Cubs have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 74-42-6 the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. That includes a 42-24-3 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Astros have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 39-19-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. Dempster has seen the UNDER go 14-7-1 in 22 starts vs. Houston, including 11-4 the last 15. Figueroa has seen the UNDER go 5-1-2 vs. the Cubs, including 5-0-2 his last seven. He allowed four earned runs or less in all eight of those stats, three or less in six of them. These same two pitchers squared off late last season. The O/U line was eight and the teams combined for just four runs. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 8*


Burns' 10* "PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Admittedly, the Mariners have been struggling. Their recent results have worked in our favor here though, as they've kept the price on this "pitching mismatch" to a reasonable level. Hernandez gets the call for the M's and he's among the best around. True, he did lose his last game. However, that was at Texas and he still only allowed two earned runs through seven complete innings. Now, he's back in the pitcher-friendly Pacific-Northwest, where he really tends to dominate. In his other start this season, he tossed a complete game and allowed just five hits (0 walks) and two runs. Seattle won by a score of 6-2. Now, Hernandez makes his 2011 home debut, where he absolutely dominates. In his last seven starts here, Felix has allowed a mere five combined runs, including 0 in four of those games, over 54 2/3 innings. For starters, that's nearly eight innings per start. Even better, that translates to a simply superb 0.82 ERA. Not surprisingly, the M's were 6-1 in those games. Going back further and we find that Hernandez has gone greater than six innings in 12 straight home starts, while allowing three earned runs or less in all 12 of them. In fact, in 11 of those 12 starts, he went a minimum of seven complete innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs or less in ALL 11 of them. Hernandez will face a Toronto lineup that just struck out 15 times against Jered Weaver yesterday, while getting only one run on four hits. In his lone start vs. the Jays last season, Hernandez allowed just one earned run and only two hits through eight complete innings. He was a "hard-luck loser" on that day though, dropping a 1-0 decision. While the M's bats aren't exactly "on fire," Hernandez should still receive considerably more run support here - and he generally doesn't need much. Litsch is fortunate to have a 3.94 ERA in three starts vs. Seattle, as he has an ugly 1.875 WHIP in those games. (That means he's allowed nearly two baserunners per inning.) He's given up 10 hits in each of his last two starts against the M's and the Jays are 0-3 in his three career starts against them. Litsch was mediocre in his lone start this season and that was at home vs. Oakland. Now, he's on the road - and the Jays are 4-11 his last 15 road starts. Note that he lasted less than six innings in nine of those starts, too. I mention that as the Jays bullpen has been seeing some work lately, given Saturday's 14 inning affair. All things considered, I believe the price is very reasonable. 10*

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | MLB Money Line Mon, 04/11/11 - 10:05 PM ¢£

double-dime bet 958 SDP (-110) Hilton vs 957 CIN Analysis: My Double-Dime 9* Bailout Blowout Game of the Month is on the SD Padres at 10:05 ET

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS FULL CARD Orlando at Philadelphia 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -2 WIPE OUT
4/11/2011 MLB Colorado Rockies at New York Mets 7:10 PM ET over 8.5 SMALL
4/11/2011 MLB Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres 10:05 PM ET San Diego Padres -111

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

10 DIME BANKROLL BUILDING BASEBALL MONEY MOVE
ST. LOUIS CARDS -115

Free play : Padres ML

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Millionaire
Hawks (+6½) over the Heat

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

100% PERFECT (16-0 ATS) NBA ELITE INFO!
-Hawks

MONDAY NIGHT NBA BAILOUT BLOWOUT!
-Nuggets

102-42 ATS NBA ROAD WARRIOR WINNER!
-Thunder