View Full Version : Bellator 41
MMA_scientist
04-11-2011, 10:29 AM
This is the only card this week, so I figured we might as well get down to business, so we are ready when the lines break:
Joe Warren vs. Marcos Galvao
Zach Makovsky vs. Chad Robichaux
Bellator Featherweight Tournament Seminfinals
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA
Warren vs. Galvao: wrestler vs bjj matchup. Galvao has done pretty well until he steps up in competition... still he is not a pushover by any means. Warren has shown that he can fend off submissions pretty well, even though he gets in trouble a lot. Still, Galvao is a bjj guy that can't submit anyone... he has never subbed anyone in MMA. And if he is hoping to engage in a positional battle with Warren, he is going to lose. Also Galvao's hands and chin are not great. Warren might also finally have a fight where he will try to keep it standing. Warren gets rocked in every fight, but manages to hang in there. Warren should win this unless he gets surprised on his feet or taken down repeatedly, which is doubtful. But his line will most likely be at least -300, probably more. Still might be bettable though...
Makovski v. Robichaux: Another wrestler vs. bjj matchup. Robichaux is 11-0 with 10 submissions, BUT a closer look at his record gives a better picture. In my opinion, he really only has 2 fights, his 2 most recent ones. He started fighting in 1999, then fought up until 2005 and then took like 4 years off. His 2 most recent opponents have records of 6-4 and 10-5. He took one of them to a split decision. Prior to that, his opponents had a combined record of 3-18... that's right 3 wins total. None of them had more than 4 fights. Aside from the competition issue, Makovski is going to be very difficult to submit. He knows what he is doing on the mat and he has short limbs. I will be on Makovski for sure unless his line is just stupid.
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis: They fought once before, Pitbull won. I actually bet on Reis last time at -150. It was close though. I think Reis has a slightly better ground game, but Pitbull has better takedowns and takedown defense. Pitbull also has better striking. Pitbull also looks like he has gone to work on his wrestling and is younger and has more upside. Still, it was close last time and Pitbull has a lot of hype right now. I expect the value to be on Reis. Pitbull should not be more than -160 IMO. I think Pitbull will win, but most likely he will be higher than that. I will probably just watch this one.
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus: I don't know what to think about this one. I have seen Straus several times. He is tough has decent hands and pretty good wrestling. Foster just mad dogged Larkin though (and cost me 5u in the process). Larkin is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA... just a beast of a wrestler. Foster, who did not come from a wrestling base, stuffed him several times and then subbed him. I think the line will be close to even, I am leaning Foster, but probably won't bet here because I haven't seen Foster enough.
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA: Johnson is a huge guy with power and very good wrestling. In his last fight, they gave him Cormier, who is probably one of only a handful of guys that can beat him. Unless they bring a beast in on short notice, Johnson is going to win. Johnson is a big bad black mothertrucker.
Vandelay
04-11-2011, 11:05 AM
Couple things. I think the freire line might be higher than that simply because freire has beaten him before and it was recent. However, Reis looked damn good in his last fight so i'm sure he will be the bet in this one.
Warren has never impressed me. His wrestling has not transitioned to mma as well as it should have. He is slow and lacks sub defense, but he does have some power and an awesome chin. His line will probably be way to high even though hes facing an inferior opponent. I had a bet on Soto in his last fight and still cant believe he came back from that brutal beat down in rd 1.
Tony Johnson Jr. is a pretty good prospect and I hope we get a line on his fight. Doubtful though.
Never seen Makovski or Robichaux, but it seems Makovski can be submitted. He will be alot taller than Robichaux tho so he should dictate where he wants the fight to be. Your description of the fight makes it enticing to bet so i'll have to look up video on both of them.
MMA_scientist
04-11-2011, 11:18 AM
Couple things. I think the freire line might be higher than that simply because freire has beaten him before and it was recent. However, Reis looked damn good in his last fight so i'm sure he will be the bet in this one.
Yeah, that is what I was trying to say. Pitbull SHOULD be -150 or so IMO, but he will actually be more than that... so the value goes to Reis (even though I think Pitbull will win).
Warren has never impressed me. His wrestling has not transitioned to mma as well as it should have. He is slow and lacks sub defense, but he does have some power and an awesome chin. His line will probably be way to high even though hes facing an inferior opponent. I had a bet on Soto in his last fight and still cant believe he came back from that brutal beat down in rd 1.
Agree, Warren is not that great. He does have some heart and chin though. I think Pitbull will beat him in the rematch (actually, I think he won last time). But I disagree his wrestling has not transferred. He has basically won all of his fights except Soto by just taking guys down and laying in the guard. He doesn't do much damage but he does get that takedown pretty much whenever he wants it.
Never seen Makovski or Robichaux, but it seems Makovski can be submitted. He will be alot taller than Robichaux tho so he should dictate where he wants the fight to be. Your description of the fight makes it enticing to bet so i'll have to look up video on both of them.
There is always the chance that he gets subbed by Robichaux... you are right, Makovski has been subbed before. Once by Reis, who is a very high level bjj practitioner, so you can't hold that against him. And I should mention that West had him tangled up a few times. Robichaux is a black belt in bjj and looks like he just runs and trains out of a Gracie Barra gym. Still, he might surprise Makovski. Let me watch some of his footage. I might back out of that one.
MMA_scientist
04-11-2011, 11:31 AM
Sherdog scored Robocheaux's last fight for the other guy fwiw. There isn't much out there on him and every video is of him fighting a can. His takedowns look good, but again, look at the competition. His standup looks pretty rudimentary. I think Makovski will win a decision, but might have to lower my line a bit... we will see where he opens.
Vandelay
04-11-2011, 12:35 PM
Warren has been stuffed by both soto and freire in the first rounds of their fights. He is much more successful in the clinch than he is shooting a double or single. He also seems to get in trouble on the ground alot. I just think he is overated by many and this causes his lines to be overpriced
Vandelay
04-11-2011, 01:11 PM
Jognson is fighting Carlos Flores (4-0)
MMA_scientist
04-13-2011, 02:26 PM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/367.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
Going to get Reis. I think Pitbull wins, but that line is ridiculous.
MMA_scientist
04-13-2011, 02:28 PM
2u on Makovski @ -255
I thin Warren's line will drop... thinking about taking that too.
Thewisemann
04-13-2011, 03:01 PM
Reid .2u to win.5u
Following Scientist:
3u on Makovski
MMA_scientist
04-13-2011, 03:24 PM
Following Scientist:
3u on Makovski
Don't curse me! Seriously, I was thinking about arbing that... Robichaux struggled against DeLeon in SF though, and he will probably have to win the fight from his back. So I don't see it happening, but I guess I am questioning it because Makovski has never faced a bjj bb (aside from Reis and we saw how that worked out), and I have a hex that follows me any time I betray jj.
Warren's line dropped out of bettable range before I had a chance to take it. Oh well.
Don't curse me! Seriously, I was thinking about arbing that... Robichaux struggled against DeLeon in SF though, and he will probably have to win the fight from his back. So I don't see it happening, but I guess I am questioning it because Makovski has never faced a bjj bb (aside from Reis and we saw how that worked out), and I have a hex that follows me any time I betray jj.
Don't fuck me over, Scientist.
DO. NOT.
Thewisemann
04-13-2011, 04:25 PM
i mean Reis
Reid .2u to win.5u
MMA_scientist
04-14-2011, 10:42 AM
Don't fuck me over, Scientist.
DO. NOT.
I wish I would have done the Warren/Makovski parlay now. I don't see how Galvao is going to beat him... he can't sub anyone and Warren has a takedown whenever he wants it. I am thinking about adding a bet on Warren- but his line. I can arb the Mak bet out now, but I am not going to arb out and then pay a steeper price just so I can do the parlay- a parlay would be 3u to win 2u. I have 3 to win 1.17u... I guess I could just drop 4.17 on Warren (-430) to win .96u, that would give me a net of 2.13u... but I would have more at risk. But I would also have a hedge in case one of them loses. what to do...
The problem is that
I wish I would have done the Warren/Makovski parlay now. I don't see how Galvao is going to beat him... he can't sub anyone and Warren has a takedown whenever he wants it. I am thinking about adding a bet on Warren- but his line. I can arb the Mak bet out now, but I am not going to arb out and then pay a steeper price just so I can do the parlay- a parlay would be 3u to win 2u. I have 3 to win 1.17u... I guess I could just drop 4.17 on Warren (-430) to win .96u, that would give me a net of 2.13u... but I would have more at risk. But I would also have a hedge in case one of them loses. what to do...
The problem is that
Warren's line is pretty fucking high and the only time I bet on him (against Soto) I remember feeling that I was kind of lucky I had won.
You have any thoughts on the Straus fight? I know nothing about his opponent.
MMA_scientist
04-14-2011, 02:02 PM
Warren's line is pretty fucking high and the only time I bet on him (against Soto) I remember feeling that I was kind of lucky I had won.
You have any thoughts on the Straus fight? I know nothing about his opponent.
The only time I have seen Foster was in his last fight against Larkin. Based on that fight, I have to think Foster is going to win. Straus is more well rounded than Larkin though, so it will probably play out differently. I wanted to bet Foster, but I just haven't seen enough of him.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 09:16 PM
Krazy Horseeeee
Someone find me a stream, please.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 09:21 PM
There wasn't one last week either.
Okay, that didn't work. How about this:
SOMEONE FIND ME A FUCKING STREAM RIGHT FUCKING NOW!
I see Straus got it done. Damn. I was thinking of betting on him, too. I always hate that feeling you get when you realize you pussed out and lost money as a consequence.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 09:51 PM
Fuck, Makovsky got caught in that triangle
Fuck, Makovsky got caught in that triangle
What the fuck are you talking about?
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 09:58 PM
What the fuck are you talking about?
Your stream must be behind
WARRRRRRR MAKOVSKY!
Fuck the curse. We win.
Your stream must be behind
Dude, don't do that shit. Seriously.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 10:04 PM
Dude, don't do that shit. Seriously.
lmao did you get scared? April fools
Your stream must be behind
LLMMMAAOO!!!!!!!!!!!! Poopoo ::lmao::::lmao::::lmao::
lmao did you get scared? April fools
I did. Instant frown and confusion and constant refreshing of the Sherdog PBP to figure out what the fuck was going on.
After about 10 seconds I figured you were full of shit, but I wasn't totally convinced until the fight was over.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 10:23 PM
DAYUM
That was mean poopoo......................but funny as hell
That was mean poopoo......................but funny as hell
It was not.
edman5555
04-16-2011, 10:47 PM
close r1
10-9 Galvao, but it looks like he's already getting tired.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 10:54 PM
Warren needs a finish imo
Warren needs a finish imo
SD has given both rounds to Galvao. So has Jimmy. I think I agree.
But we'll see what the judges do. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Warren get the D.
edman5555
04-16-2011, 11:00 PM
This reminds me of the pitbull fight.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 11:01 PM
That was the worst decision I have ever seen. 30-27, really?
That was the worst decision I have ever seen. 30-27, really?
Gay.
Someone's gonna beat that fucker soon.
edman5555
04-16-2011, 11:03 PM
It's hard to beat him when he gets 30-27s in fights where he loses 29-28. It only makes it worse that he is a cocky little shit.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 11:04 PM
I seriously do not understand how the fuck Warren won that fight, let alone the 30-27 scorecard. Joe Warren got one TD and actually kept position in round 1, and that was like the last 20 seconds of the round. Same with round 2 I think.
edman5555
04-16-2011, 11:04 PM
Sometimes I hate the td = victory way of scoring.
Well congrats to everyone on Warren.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 11:14 PM
That decision was just as bad as Garcia vs Phan
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 11:15 PM
and Garcia vs KZ
That decision was just as bad as Garcia vs Phan
and Garcia vs KZ
I don't know about all that shit.
Okay, well fuck this. I'm off to watch Bring It On Again.
Not Bring It On . . . again. But the sequel: Bring It On Again.
poopoo333
04-16-2011, 11:26 PM
I am watching black people run up and down a court and throw a ball into a hoop
I'm watching 90 minutes of cheerleaders.
I'm watching 90 minutes of cheerleaders.
Do you honestly think that somehow serves as validation of your sexuality?
Thewisemann
04-17-2011, 12:13 AM
And today the man sticks it to me, goodbye IWS, scientist, I'm gonna need some help.
poopoo333
04-17-2011, 12:17 AM
And today the man sticks it to me, goodbye IWS, scientist, I'm gonna need some help.
huh?
Do you honestly think that somehow serves as validation of your sexuality?
I have no problems with my sexuality. You can like tits and dicks and the same time.
And today the man sticks it to me, goodbye IWS, scientist, I'm gonna need some help.
What the fuck are you talking about?
And today the man sticks it to me, goodbye IWS, scientist, I'm gonna need some help.
Como say what?
poopoo333
04-17-2011, 12:46 AM
My guess is that he withdrew because of the FBI.
And today the man sticks it to me, goodbye IWS, scientist, I'm gonna need some help.
Did the FBI seize you poker account wiseman?
Thewisemann
04-17-2011, 01:19 AM
No, not the FBI, the state p.olice, back to jail I'm sure, but Ill be back
No, not the FBI, the state p.olice, back to jail I'm sure, but Ill be back
what happened man?
I scored it 30-27 Warren. Shrug.
I scored it 30-27 Warren. Shrug.
That's really weird coming from you, when you value damage and effective striking above all.
That's really weird coming from you, when you value damage and effective striking above all.
he was just trying to start an after event war
MMA_scientist
04-17-2011, 08:54 AM
Wisemann... wtf? Back to jail... what did you go for before? And why does Bellator's results send you back to jail? Were you gambling with your probation fees or something?
Anyone know where I can catch a replay of the Warren fight?
MMA_scientist
04-17-2011, 09:03 AM
I thought Galvao clearly won rounds 1 and 2... FWIW.
he was just trying to start an after event war
Busted. I didn't even watch it.
Luke I'm sure it's on mma-core. That's the first place to check for a replay. Bellator might even have it on their site.
Busted. I didn't even watch it.
lol I dont know if you're lying now or you were lying you scored it 30-27
Luke I'm sure it's on mma-core. That's the first place to check for a replay. Bellator might even have it on their site.
Ok found it thanks.
I will have an official scorecard you guys can refer to in a few minutes ::handshake::
poopoo333
04-17-2011, 10:55 AM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zuaDM4Loohw/TapYuyWquEI/AAAAAAAACZU/2JD2y6-u3rs/s1600/ROBBERY.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RSDKpOua2Uc/TapTHjX-MNI/AAAAAAAACYk/9EPA_ek9b8Q/s1600/2DWI.gif
Just watched the fight .The first rd was very close could have went either way. Galvao rd 2 , Warren dominate rd 3 . I think Warren 29-28 is just fine , 30-27 no
edman5555
04-17-2011, 11:46 AM
Yeah it was close but the 30-27 was ridic.
Holy shit, Wilson Reis got obliterated!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK-etrNHDPo&feature=player_embedded
Thewisemann
04-17-2011, 01:33 PM
US marshalls came to arrest my brother on felony assault charges, and smelled marijuana, they asked to search, he refused, and showed them his legal paperwork for medical marijuana. (we are in MI). He was arressted on the assault charges (against my sisters ex who beat the fuck out of her, it was in ohio) and they obtained a search warrant. They are saying he was over his limit, but i know he just harvested and shit was in the drying process. mi law states usable marijuana is defined as "the dried leaves and flowers". I dont think it was dry. They seized everything. He is waiting extradition to ohio,but hasnt been charged with anything else. So they obtain a warrant for another house, that the lease is in his name and the utilities are in his name, but the plants are in my sisters name, all 100% within state limits. But they took everything from there also. Not sure if they can do that.
Thewisemann
04-17-2011, 01:39 PM
My sisters ex was spreading rumors that i also assaulted him, and im also on probation. So we will see.
Pretty fucked up story, Wiseman. Hopefully it will all get sorted out in an acceptable manner.
Keep us updated.
Just watched the fight .The first rd was very close could have went either way. Galvao rd 2 , Warren dominate rd 3 . I think Warren 29-28 is just fine , 30-27 no
It was close. I really felt like Galvao deserved the first round, though. Probably as much as he deserved the second. He put Warren in a lot of bad positions and was winning the striking.
Warren's going to lose soon. I can feel it. I bet Joe Soto would beat him in a rematch.
Holy shit, Wilson Reis got obliterated!
No shit. It was a close fight until the ownage . . . but then came the ownage.
Warren's going to lose soon. I can feel it..
Where in the world is Bibiano Fernandes?
edman5555
04-17-2011, 02:13 PM
Warren is just barely winning but he is beating top level comp as a newcomer. What was Kid, his second fight?
Hopefully it will all get sorted out in an acceptable manner.
\.
You know this is America right? Home of the most screwed up justice system I've ever seen . Convicts get off ,innocent people get sent to prison
Warren is just barely winning but he is beating top level comp as a newcomer. What was Kid, his second fight?
Yeah, but I think it's been pretty clearly demonstrated that Kid is either a) past his prime and not fighting up to the level that he once was, or b) the division has passed him by as more talented fighters have started to fill the sub-155 ranks.
You know this is America right? Home of the most screwed up justice system I've ever seen . Convicts get off ,innocent people get sent to prison
Hey, I'm trying to give the nigga some encouragement. And besides, I'm a little confused by the story, but it doesn't sound like he actually did anything, and jails are full right now.
Hey, I'm trying to give the nigga some encouragement. And besides, I'm a little confused by the story, but it doesn't sound like he actually did anything, and jails are full right now.
You cant read or what?
My sisters ex was spreading rumors that i also assaulted him, and im also on probation. So we will see.
You know this is America right? Home of the most screwed up justice system I've ever seen . Convicts get off ,innocent people get sent to prison
How many justice systems have you actually seen?
You cant read or what?
Yeah, but that's just a rumor, you fucking homo.
How many justice systems have you actually seen?
you are right our justice system is great
I should call them and tell them I know this guy who stole a bunch of cable splitters
Pretty sweet ad hominem.
I was just curious is all. You sounded like an expert on the subject.
Thewisemann
04-17-2011, 03:46 PM
When your on probation, rumors are all it takes.
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