Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[flyinggogoplata]

full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

[MMA_scientist]

hmm I believe betting more for success then value is leaving a lot of money on the table.

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

[Luke]

This is out of shape Werdum:

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/307853/fabriciowerdum1.jpg

I didnt say out of shape I said worse shape than the fedor fight ......and he is imo

[MMA_scientist]

He definitely looks a little soft, I will give you that. HIs watch has to weigh 4 pounds though.

[flyinggogoplata]

a trade I am willing to make to make sure I stay in the game. I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

Full Kelly is WAY too volatile, you will wipe out your bankroll pretty quick. But yeah, I should bet more on fights with a lot of value, but I don't like bankroll swings. It is what it is... I know my problems, and I try to play away from my weaknesses.

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.

[MMA_scientist]

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

[Thewisemann]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

[flyinggogoplata]

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

I know it means nothing coming from me, but I fully support you going full degen.

[SPX]

I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.


I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

[MMA_scientist]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

Don't do it. I am just excited Werdum wore his gi. Seriously, don't listen to me, Werdum is one of my fave HW's and I always say he is going to win.

[SPX]

Werdum usually DOES win . . . Except when this happens. . .


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/993/669/DosSantosWerdum_display_image_display_image.jpg?13 07373150

[flyinggogoplata]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

[SPX]

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

How do you really say, though, that this guy has a 65% chance of winning instead of a 62% chance? It's not like the fight result confirms that or anything.

[MMA_scientist]

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

right, you can calculate your overall edge, which I have done with the help of svino a few times. There is a thread around here somewhere that has the forumla in it.

But that is different than calculating your edge on a specific fight. Say I set my line at -115 for Werdum, and he opens at +220... I better be pretty damn confident in that -115 to go out and make a big bet based on the value. SPX and I see eye to eye on this, it is a myth to say you can precisely predict the outcome of a fight to within a few percentages. I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

[flyinggogoplata]

How do you really say, though, that this guy has a 65% chance of winning instead of a 62% chance? It's not like the fight result confirms that or anything.

You would need to create a math model to get lines that close.

[SPX]

I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

That's pretty much me, too. I do try to set percentages, but really it's more like I put them into various categories, like:

Not going to win (barring some crazy fluke shit)
Might win, but doubtful
Solid chance to win, close fight
Will probably win, close fight
Should win
Will definitely win (barring some crazy fluke shit)

[Luke]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

I don't think you can apply Kelly to MMA or boxing because you never really know your exact edge in a fight is .
In football after running my numbers I can predict my exact adv (using my system)against the point spread and convert those points in my adv to a percent that gives me my exact edge .In MMA/boxing I wouldnt even know where to start to figure it out

[Luke]

If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

What if you bet all dogs, a lot of the time the closing line is the best line you'll see on the dog

[MMA_scientist]

That's pretty much me, too. I do try to set percentages, but really it's more like I put them into various categories, like:

Not going to win (barring some crazy fluke shit)
Might win, but doubtful
Solid chance to win, close fight
Will probably win, close fight
Should win
Will definitely win (barring some crazy fluke shit)

pretty much what I do. The hard thing about it is that you never get confirmation. You are never really right and you are never really wrong. If you set your line at -400, the other guy is still supposed to win 20% of the time... so when you lose, well yeah, he had a 20% chance. You really never get confirmation that you were correct on your line.

I just try to think, at this moment in space and time with all the information that we have, what is going to happen? Then I have confidence level similar to your scale, and then I match up the line with my confidence level, and pull the trigger.

There are some things, at this moment in space and time, that I do not think will happen, period, 0%- like Rogers submitting Barnett or Daley submitting Diaz. Just is not going to happen. Even if Barnett takes a dive, Rogers won't even think about trying to submit him, it is almost risk free money.

[flyinggogoplata]

right, you can calculate your overall edge, which I have done with the help of svino a few times. There is a thread around here somewhere that has the formula in it.

But that is different than calculating your edge on a specific fight. Say I set my line at -115 for Werdum, and he opens at +220... I better be pretty damn confident in that -115 to go out and make a big bet based on the value. SPX and I see eye to eye on this, it is a myth to say you can precisely predict the outcome of a fight to within a few percentages. I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

It's not a myth for most sports because math models can be very good, however you're probably right about mma in particular simply because a lack of any databases existing.

However there is no need to predict any fight to within a few percentages. If you see any value on a opening line you might as well max bet it with the limits being so low. Pinnacle's head linesman once proposed releasing every fight at pick em with low limits of course. Then when the line is banged into shape by the sharps the are limits upped.

[flyinggogoplata]

What if you bet all dogs, a lot of the time the closing line is the best line you'll see on the dog

If you're talking about the superbowl with huge amounts of public money coming in the best line on the dog comes at closing. But what about wnba or arena football? Just yesterday in the Wnba a dog at opening closed as the favorite. BTCL is the best way to tell if someone is a winning gambler.

[SPX]

I wonder if a fighter who has a significant advantage over his opponent has ever bet on himself to win a particular prop where the odds are good, like a striker betting on himself to win via submission in round two or some shit like that. And then gone into the fight focused on getting an RNC in the second round.

[Svino]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

Yeah, I agree with what you guys are saying. You have to play things a lot more conservatively in MMA betting because you can rarely be that confident in your valuation of a line. With small bets, every bet you make on the correct side of the line is positive expected growth. With Kelly bets, you risk making severely negative expected growth wagers if your estimation is even a little off.

I don't think the Kelly Criterion is a totally useless thing to think about, though. Sometimes I'll make a "worst case" estimate and look at the Kelly for that. Then there fights (Couture vs. Toney) that I really do believe can be pinned down very accurately, so Kelly is useful there as well.

[Luke]

If you're talking about the superbowl with huge amounts of public money coming in the best line on the dog comes at closing. But what about wnba or arena football? Just yesterday in the Wnba a dog at opening closed as the favorite. BTCL is the best way to tell if someone is a winning gambler.

I was talking about MMA fights , a lot of the time the best dog line is the closing line .

[SPX]

Two things. . .

1. I was wondering when you were going show up, Svino. You must've seen the Batsignal.

2. I should've pounded the shit out of that Couture line. Shame on me.

[Luke]

I wonder if a fighter who has a significant advantage over his opponent has ever bet on himself to win a particular prop where the odds are good, like a striker betting on himself to win via submission in round two or some shit like that. And then gone into the fight focused on getting an RNC in the second round.


Its probably happened before but its highly illegal.

[SPX]

Illegal, sure. I'm just wondering.

I mean, a perfect example would've been Jeremy Stephens vs Danny Downes. Stephens never submits anyone but almost yanked Downes' arm off with a kimura that he kept working on.

I wonder what the line was for Stephens via submission.

[poopoo333]

We are fools for not putting our life savings on Couture over Toney @-460

[Luke]

We are fools for not putting our life savings on Couture over Toney @-460

forget Couture how about when Cain was +100 to Big NOG

[SPX]

Don't you mean . . . -100?!?!

[Svino]

forget Couture how about when Cain was +100 to Big NOG

I bet on Nog. I'm so embarrassed.

[flyinggogoplata]

The Greek and Cris the biggest offshore books in the world still have 250 Dollar limits on mma openers. You have to ask yourself why are the limits so low?

[poopoo333]

Didn't he open at like +200 on Bodog? This was when I first started betting and I really looked at the fights way differently back then. If I could go back in time I would have looked at that fight totally different (before they fought of course) then I actually did.

[Svino]

Don't you mean . . . -100?!?!

LOL, SPX. Why do American bookies still use the moneyline notation. It's so dumb.

[Luke]

The Greek and Cris the biggest offshore books in the world still have 250 Dollar limits on mma openers. You have to ask yourself why are the limits so low?

Someone find the thread I explained this is

[Luke]

Don't you mean . . . -100?!?!

you're not serious . . . . . right?

[Svino]

The Greek and Cris the biggest offshore books in the world still have 250 Dollar limits on mma openers. You have to ask yourself why are the limits so low?

They keep the limits low because they know their game is beatable. I mean, just look at our MMA tracker.

[flyinggogoplata]

They keep the limits low because they know their game is beatable. I mean, just look at our MMA tracker.

exactly, so worrying about over estimating your edge at $250 limits is a waste of time.

[SPX]

LOL, SPX. Why do American bookies still use the moneyline notation. It's so dumb.

I'm cool with it. I don't get that decimal shit.

[SPX]

you're not serious . . . . . right?



BOL!!!!!!!!!!!

[SPX]

exactly, so worrying about over estimating your edge at $250 limits is a waste of time.

I'll be happy when the day comes that I'm pissed off at such a "low" limit.

It is pretty low, though.

[flyinggogoplata]

Someone find the thread I explained this is

I know why I was trying to make a point.

[flyinggogoplata]

Also with fight metric selling databases and mma becoming more popular I see math models coming in play. Lines will get way sharper almost to a point where they can't be beaten except at opening.

[SPX]

They keep the limits low because they know their game is beatable. I mean, just look at our MMA tracker.

Isn't this the case with all sports, though?

[flyinggogoplata]

Isn't this the case with all sports, though?

Not that low of limits. Major Markets like the NFL are very hard to beat straight up without betting steam or stale lines. So limits are much higher, pinny will take 2000-5000 on openers. 20k and higher on game day.

[Svino]

Isn't this the case with all sports, though?

To some extent, but I think MMA betting is intrinsically much more beatable than (say) baseball or football.

[Luke]

Also with fight metric selling databases and mma becoming more popular I see math models coming in play. Lines will get way sharper almost to a point where they can't be beaten except at opening.

There is a statistician already working on predictive algorithm fight outcome application for fightmetric

[SPX]

Not that low of limits. Major Markets like the NFL are very hard to beat straight up without betting steam or stale lines. So limits are much higher, pinny will take 2000-5000 on openers. 20k and higher on game day.

I'm not talking about limits . . . I'm talking about all sports being beatable.

[SPX]

To some extent, but I think MMA betting is intrinsically much more beatable than (say) baseball or football.

Why do you say that?

[SPX]

There is a statistician already working on predictive algorithm fight outcome application for fightmetric

Tell us more. . .

[Svino]

There is a statistician already working on predictive algorithm fight outcome application for fightmetric

I doubt it's gonna work. This would be far easier to do with boxing than with MMA. Has it ever been done successfully with boxing?

[Luke]

Isn't this the case with all sports, though?

No.MMA/boxing are the easiet sports to beat over time, the NFL is the hardest

[flyinggogoplata]

I'm not talking about limits . . . I'm talking about all sports being beatable.

No, Maybe one out of hundred gamblers are winners. Most sharps are math wizards with large databases and math models.

[Luke]

Why do you say that?

The lines are a lot sharper in other sports because more money is bet on them

[Svino]

Why do you say that?

1) As I said above, look at our tracker...

2) When sports get to the point where they can be modeled well statistically, the casinos can use those good models and the vig takes care of the rest.

[Luke]

Tell us more. . .


Thats all he told me .It this guy here:

http://twitter.com/#!/johncandido

[Luke]

Has it ever been done successfully with boxing?

Not to my knowledge

[SPX]

I don't know about math models, but I will just say that it seems to me that, due to the intangibles of being human, it would be impossible even for a computer to arrive at any truly accurate percentage or line in any sport.

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

[SPX]

1) As I said above, look at our tracker...


Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

[Luke]

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

They don't need math models for that they have access to inside info that none of us hear about till after the fight

[flyinggogoplata]

I don't know about math models, but I will just say that it seems to me that, due to the intangibles of being human, it would be impossible even for a computer to arrive at any truly accurate percentage or line in any sport.

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

they can get it close enough to where you can't beat the juice.

[flyinggogoplata]

Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

pretty much no one beats the nfl straight up.

[SPX]

They don't need math models for that they have access to inside info that none of us hear about till after the fight

Well fuck that shit. No wonder I don't care about any other sports.

In any case, they must me making enough money on MMA for them to keep offering lines year after year.

[flyinggogoplata]

In large markets like the nfl you're going up against guys like Billy Walters.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM

[Svino]

Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

Taken as a whole, it looks like MMA posters here do the best against the casinos. That said, I am pretty impressed with Zak's football record.

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^Have you ever read the book : The Smart Money? Decent read

[flyinggogoplata]

^^^^^^^^Have you ever read the book : The Smart Money? Decent read

No, I will have to check it out. The only gambling book I have is Conquering Risk.

[edman5555]

pretty much no one beats the nfl straight up.

There is a guy in vegas that had some specials done about him on TV that makes millions doing it.

[edman5555]

There is a guy in vegas that had some specials done about him on TV that makes millions doing it.

well there you go, you posted the interview i saw.

[SPX]

In large markets like the nfl you're going up against guys like Billy Walters.

That was pretty interesting. I'll become the MMA version of that guy.

[Thewisemann]

Why is the bets thread closed? Anyway, Wilcox, Noons, Griggs, Barnett, and Reem .1u to win 1 u

[Thewisemann]

Why is the bets thread closed? Anyway, Wilcox, Noons, Griggs, Barnett, and Reem .1u to win 1 u

Cormier also.

[SPX]

Re-opened.

Go post your shit.

[Thewisemann]

Cool

[Svino]

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
I think both of these guys are great fighters. It seems like a good matchup for Overeem, so the majority opinion, that Overeem is going to brutalize Werdum with strikes is probably correct. It's true I said something like that about Werdum's last opponent, but I'm sold on Overeem as a fighter now. Yes, his MMA opposition has been weak, and I'm not convinced "K1 level striking" is always as significant as people imply people imply it is, but it's just one of those things where you can tell anyway -- the man is a total beast now. Werdum probably doesn't have wrestling shot he needs to get this to the ground without eating the bad end of the Reem's clinch game. I could imagine Overeem tiring though, that's probably Werdum's big chance.

Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
In contrast to the above match, I'm not at all confident that either of these guys are very good. Roger's big accomplishments were KO-ing Arlovsky (a feat that seems less and less impressive every time Arlovsky fights) and lasting until the second round to get KO'd by Fedor. Barnett hasn't been fighting top competition in a while and I definitely have the fear that he could come out looking old and busted like Big Nog or Cro-Cop. He actually had a hard time getting Mighty Mo down, so he could suffer the same problems with Rogers. Still, the mostly outcome for this fight is Barnett clinching early, landing a trip-takedown and then pounding out or submitting Rogers. I see it as largely a question of whether or not the old Barnett is still in there.

K.J. Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal (tossup)
Very close fight. Noons winning a stand-up fight is probably the most likely outcome. Masvidal could win it with striking or grappling though. Possible value on Masvidal IMO.

Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Cormier should win this. I'm a big believer in Cormier in general. Not only has he looked like the better fighter recently, but we have a lot more reason to expect him to improve. Still, Monson's chances at a submission or just plain winning the fight on the feet are enough to make me worry about my bet.

Valentijn Overeem vs. Chad Griggs
I'm thinking Griggs by cardio and wrestling, in that order.

Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox
Wilcox can probably win a stifling top-control decision. I think trusting his hands to carry him against JZ would be a big mistake; unfortunately, it's one he just might make.

[Mr. IWS]

^^^^^^^^Good stuff Svino

[poopoo333]

I might look stupid after the fight but Wilcox was a steal @+140 imo and I wish I would have bet more on it.

[Luke]

Re-opened.

Go post your shit.


LOL you pulled a me didnt you X?

[Luke]

That was pretty interesting. I'll become the MMA version of that guy.

You should read The Smart Money its about a guy whon was a runner in vegas for Billy Walters,wish I hadnt gave away my copy a month ago or I would send it to you .

[SPX]

LOL you pulled a me didnt you X?

Apparently so.



You should read The Smart Money its about a guy whon was a runner in vegas for Billy Walters,wish I hadnt gave away my copy a month ago or I would send it to you .

I'll see if I can look it up on Amazon. You know I'm always up for a good book.

[Luke]

Apparently so.




I'll see if I can look it up on Amazon. You know I'm always up for a good book.


Its cheaper on half.com I looked it up about a half hour ago::handshake::

[poopoo333]

Prelim streams brehs?

[Luke]

Prelim streams brehs?

http://bit.ly/mzyN5H

[Mr. IWS]

aint the prelims on HDnet?

[poopoo333]

^^yeah Comcast doesn't have HDnet. And Luke...negged

[poopoo333]

Oh, shit starts at 8:00 PM.

[Mr. IWS]

Shit jumps off at 8 it looks like.

[Mr. IWS]

http://bit.ly/mzyN5H

BOLZORZ

[Luke]

Oh noes!!!!!!!!!!!



(http://twitter.com/#!/MMAjunkieJohn)MMAjunkieJohn (http://twitter.com/#!/MMAjunkieJohn) John Morgan



Don't panic team, but I believe I just saw both Cecil Peoples and "Doc" Hamilton in judging attire

(http://twitter.com/#!/MMAjunkieJohn)


::haptime::::haptime::

[poopoo333]

http://www.justin.tv/freaksterguy20#/w/1354378080

[poopoo333]

Also on Sopcast on MMA-TV

[poopoo333]

lmao, 1st prelim fight a controversial decision imo. I bet on Vallie-Flagg in my parlay so it is ok

[zY|]

10-9 Joe Ray, from his back, dawg. Represent.

[poopoo333]

Racist.

[edman5555]

This is one of the best strikeforce cards in a long time. I am actually interested in a lot of the fights.

[SPX]

Also on Sopcast on MMA-TV

Vastly superior stream.

[poopoo333]

Vastly superior stream.

Vastly time delayed stream.*

[zY|]

I've got the negroid winning 29-28. Very raw, but too black and athletic for poor Joe Ray.

[SPX]

Vastly time delayed stream.*

A small price to pay when the alternative is grainy and choppy.

[SPX]

Well that sucks.

I'm doing this MMA fantasy thing at www.tkofantasy.com and it's starting out pretty shitty so far.

[poopoo333]

All underdogs have won so far

[edman5555]

wow two guys i bet ended up winning. I thought MAgno would get that though.

[poopoo333]

Lame.

[zY|]

Well that was gay.

[edman5555]

wow two guys i bet ended up winning. I thought MAgno would get that though.

I mean two guys I almsot bet won.

[SPX]

I know that feeling.

[edman5555]

anyone have a link for this yet?
I am looking

[SPX]

MMA TV on Sopcast

[MMA_scientist]

just watched the prelims. That first one was an absolute robbery. Heun probably should have lost as well, but not robbery. Anyway, fear the judges tonight.

Who has a stream?

[SPX]

I thought Heun deserved the win.

[poopoo333]

Found this one for you breh

http://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4dfd05e29e75b

[edman5555]

thanks for the sopcast reminder. I forgot I downloaded it.

[poopoo333]

WAR GRIGGS!

Reality just hit me: I bet big on a fight between two heavy handed cans.

[MMA_scientist]

Found this one for you breh

http://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4dfd05e29e75b

Thank you, that is a nice stream right there.

[poopoo333]

lmfao

He tapped to strikes, stfu you bald Ranallo fuck

[MMA_scientist]

lol oldereem folded like a chair. tapped to strikes after going fetal

[zY|]

Geez Mauro, he obviously tapped out.

[SPX]

Well shit.

War Chad Griggs, I guess.

[MMA_scientist]

nice work poops, grats

[zY|]

lol oldereem folded like a chair. tapped to strikes after going fetal

No big surprise. That's Othereem's MO.

[poopoo333]

There was a guy on SBR talking about how Griggs by sub @+1500 was a good play because Oldereem is a pussy that taps to strikes. But it looks like they ruled it a TKO?

[SPX]

I really hoped Werdum would say "whoop ass."

[MMA_scientist]

IWs curse on the line tonight with cormier

[SPX]

I hope Monson fights well enough to make Cormier work hard for a decision.

[SPX]

I really hoped Werdum would say "whoop ass."

On the same note, I've noticed that all the Brazilian fighters are starting to speak more English.

[poopoo333]

nice work poops, grats

Thanks man I wasn't worried at all. I knew it was a lock all along.

[zY|]

Monson about to get beat up.

[zY|]

Man, you can really tell Cormier trains a lot with Cain. He's ripping Monson up with his clinch boxing.

[Luke]

What did I miss in the first fight , someone summarize in a sentence or two

[MMA_scientist]

Man, you can really tell Cormier trains a lot with Cain. He's ripping Monson up with his clinch boxing.

I thought Cormier's striking in the clinch looked really sharp in his hast fight.

[MMA_scientist]

What did I miss in the first fight , someone summarize in a sentence or two

Griggs bludgeoned Overeem and Overeem pussed like he usually does and tapped to strikes in Rd 1

[poopoo333]

What did I miss in the first fight , someone summarize in a sentence or two

Round 1 - Kerry Hatley calls the first Showtime-televised fight of the night. Overeem with a leg kick to start off. He misses on a high-kick follow up and Griggs charges in. They're clinched at the cage and doing next to nothing. Overeem pushes forward for a takedown but gets reversed on the way down. Griggs lands in half-guard and uses his free right hand for short punches. Still not a lot doing. But Griggs frees himself and starts pounding away. Overeem rolls to his hands and knees and does nothing as Griggs pounds away. Another roll, and the referee waves the bout off when the punches keep coming. Quick victory for Griggs. Chad Griggs def. Valentijn Overeem via TKO (strikes) - Round 1, 2:08.



But Overeem tapped to strikes

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^^^thanks guys

I always miss the good shit it seems

[zY|]

Griggs bludgeoned Overeem and Overeem pussed like he usually does and tapped to strikes in Rd 1

Yeah, he lateral dropped Oldereem into half guard and then just pummeled him.

[MMA_scientist]

Mauro is worse than Rogan. I wish he would die.

[SPX]

Monson has a pretty good chin. He's gotten tagged a lot.

[SPX]

Mauro is worse than Rogan. I wish he would die.

Nothing wrong with Rogan.

[MMA_scientist]

I like my favorites like this, nice and boring and safe. Keep it going.

[Luke]

Nothing wrong with Rogan.


Negged

[SPX]

What's up with the name "Jorge?"

I've always known it go be pronounced "whore-hay" but the commentators often pronounce it as George.

Anyone know what's up with that?

[Luke]

Mauro is worse than Rogan. I wish he would die.

Wait until the day the call a card together

[poopoo333]

I like my favorites like this, nice and boring and safe. Keep it going.

Agreed.

[SPX]

I like my favorites like this, nice and boring and safe. Keep it going.

Me too. I need Cormier via decision to cancel out my ill-advised Valentijn bet.

[MMA_scientist]

MOnson is going to save you "cormier by decision" guys. He needs to keep flopping back...

[SPX]

Wait until the day the call a card together

You usually bitch about Goldie, not Rogan. . .

[MMA_scientist]

damn, Cormier is a brute

[SPX]

Nice. I approve.

Monson's tough. I don't think I could kick his ass.

[Luke]

There was a guy on SBR talking about how Griggs by sub @+1500 was a good play because Oldereem is a pussy that taps to strikes. But it looks like they ruled it a TKO?


It stays a TKO



@MMAJunkie
Kerry Hatley just told me he never saw a tap. He stopped the fight because of the strikes. Hope that clears it up for everyone

[poopoo333]

Who is next for Cormier? Griggs? Is that how this alternate thing works?

[MMA_scientist]

Nice. I approve.

Monson's tough. I don't think I could kick his ass.

probably not.

He is tough, just a horrible style matchup for him.

[Luke]

You usually bitch about Goldie, not Rogan. . .


Lol truth be told I don't like either one of them , sorry . Its not just them I don't like any loud over the top announcers .

[edman5555]

Wow I didn't pull the trigger on a lot of winners tonight. Hopefully the ones I bet actually win. Not that I actually bet a lot on them. Nice call on Chad Griggs PooPoo.

[Luke]

Who is next for Cormier? Griggs? Is that how this alternate thing works?


Lol I plain forgot this are alternates.........................negged myself

[SPX]

It stays a TKO

Damn, that sucks for everyone who bet on Griggs via sub.

[MMA_scientist]

If you guys are not on the Veetle stream, it is very high quality. I recommend.

[SPX]

Lol truth be told I don't like either one of them , sorry . Its not just them I don't like any loud over the top announcers .

Can you tell me an announcer that you DO like?

Trigg? The Voice? Pulver? Bonnar? Mir?

[poopoo333]

I hope KJ Noons wins. I was too lazy to look at this fight..so I didn't bet. I think it'll go to decision though

[SPX]

If you guys are not on the Veetle stream, it is very high quality. I recommend.

Veetle always delivers for some reason.

[Thewisemann]

I got Noons dec @+140 to win half a unit

[MMA_scientist]

I like Florian, Bonnar, Mir, Jimmy Smith, the other Bellator guy, Guy Metzger, Trigg...

Basically, I don't like Frank Shamrock, Mauro, Rogan, the Mouth is probably the worst.

I actually think Florian and Jimmy Smith are the best play by play guys. I don't mind Goldie for color, but he is totally clueless. I think it is funny though.

[Luke]

Can you tell me an announcer that you DO like?

Trigg? The Voice? Pulver? Bonnar? Mir?

Bonnar and Florian dont bother me at all

[trotterz]

I had griggs and Cormier (huge amount) tonight .... I love when I win all of my bets, than I get to just enjoy the fights without the stress.
on a side note ... Cormier is damn fucking impressive.

[SPX]

I don't mind Goldie for color, but he is totally clueless. I think it is funny though.

You know he's not actually clueless. He may not know as much as Rogan, but he knows things.

[SPX]

Bonnar and Florian dont bother me at all

I miss Mir emoting over Faber and Torres.

[zY|]

I've got Showtime atm. HD MMA is visceral as fuck.

[SPX]

Damn.

[SPX]

I'm really surprised that wasn't the end.

[MMA_scientist]

You know he's not actually clueless. He may not know as much as Rogan, but he knows things.

I disagree. Not a single clue is had by Goldie.

Damn, Noons is got beat down there.

[Luke]

Not quite a 10-8 rd imo but wouldnt argue it either

[zY|]

Looked 10-8 from here. Tons of GnP after the head kick knockdown.

[SPX]

I like it. Masvidal looks to be winning this round. So if he can just survive the third then I should be good.

[poopoo333]

X, are you worried at all about Barnett?

[zY|]

Masvidal looks awesome, and damn KJ Noons is a man.

[SPX]

X, are you worried at all about Barnett?

There's always concern, especially when you're talking about hard punchers like Rogers and the fact that Barnett hasn't been fighting top guys. But I obviously think Barnett should be on another level.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I really think Barnett is going to be another mismatch for Rogers. I can't get that Villareal fight out of my head.

[SPX]

What's gay is that I bet on Masvidal, but I took Noons in that fantasy thing.

[SPX]

Yeah I really think Barnett is going to be another mismatch for Rogers. I can't get that Villareal fight out of my head.

We know that strong grapplers can usually find a way to get the fight to the ground, and on the ground it will definitely be a mismatch.

[poopoo333]

KJ Noons is a bum.

[SPX]

So Masvidal should win barring any inverted triangles.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I really think Barnett is going to be another mismatch for Rogers. I can't get that Villareal fight out of my head.

If Barnett comes to grapple, it should be an easy night. If he comes to strike, which he probably will, he should still win IMO. But X is right, Rogers has the power... I may still bet it... I am considering it since I won my Cormier bet.

[SPX]

KJ Noons is a bum.

I actually think Noons is a bad motherfucker, but beyond a very strong ability to get back to his feet (which is extremely important) he has little in the way of grappling skills.

[poopoo333]

El Nino is going to literally beat Jorge Masivdal right in the middle of the cage.

[poopoo333]

I actually think Noons is a bad motherfucker, but beyond a very strong ability to get back to his feet (which is extremely important) he has little in the way of grappling skills.

I was kidding about the "bum" statement, but I think his striking may be overrated by a lot of people because his pro boxing background.

[poopoo333]

If Barnett comes to grapple, it should be an easy night. If he comes to strike, which he probably will, he should still win IMO. But X is right, Rogers has the power... I may still bet it... I am considering it since I won my Cormier bet.

Bet on Barnett and I will add onto my Barnett bet. We ride together we die together

[MMA_scientist]

Surprised Masvidal was able to get him down so much. Huen could not get him down at all, despite being a collegiate wrestler.

[Svino]

I was kidding about the "bum" statement, but I think his striking may be overrated by a lot of people because his pro boxing background.

Yeah, definitely.

(Hey guys, that's up?)

[SPX]

El Nino is going to literally beat Jorge Masivdal right in the middle of the cage.

Only because Melendez should be a much stronger wrestler.

[poopoo333]

Bet on Barnett and I will add onto my Barnett bet. We ride together we die together

Actually I don't know..I'm scared

[SPX]

Bet on Barnett and I will add onto my Barnett bet. We ride together we die together

War Barnett

[zY|]

I think Jorge will give Gil a fight.

[SPX]

Actually I don't know..I'm scared

Pussy.

[MMA_scientist]

Bet on Barnett and I will add onto my Barnett bet. We ride together we die together

I want to, but I am not going to do it. Besides, if all you guys were not on Barnett, I would be rooting pretty hard for Rogers to knock Barnett's head off his shoulders.

[edman5555]

your already kicking ass poopoo, dont bother with Barnett. He should win but he is kinda fat looking for a pro athlete.

[SPX]

So I'm in 40th place on my fantasy deal. War Barnett, Werdum, and Bronzouilus (or however you spell it). If all three win that might get me into the top 10.

[zY|]

Barnett by Giant Swing.

[SPX]

Besides, if all you guys were not on Barnett, I would be rooting pretty hard for Rogers to knock Barnett's head off his shoulders.

Barnett's hilarious. Don't hate.

[poopoo333]

your already kicking ass poopoo, dont bother with Barnett. He should win but he is kinda fat looking for a pro athlete.

You're right. Thanks. (About not bothering, I don't care that he is kinda fat, he has always been fat)

[SPX]

Who would win between JDS and Overeem?

[zY|]

Barnett's hilarious. Don't hate.

He's hilarious when he's not getting popped for steroids and lying about it like a petulant child.

[SPX]

We all have our faults.

[zY|]

Who would win between JDS and Overeem?

Tough call. I think JDS is tougher and responds to getting hit better which is historically Alistair's weakness, but I wouldn't be surprised if Overeem assassinated anybody. The dude is so offensively potent.

[SPX]

I hope Barnett finishes this early.

[SPX]

Tough call. I think JDS is tougher and responds to getting hit better which is historically Alistair's weakness, but I wouldn't be surprised if Overeem assassinated anybody. The dude is so offensively potent.

Who would you bet on at an even line?

[MMA_scientist]

I think JDs would win.

[poopoo333]

Who would you bet on at an even line?

Ubereem for me, unless Werdum blasts Ubereem with an uppercut tonight or a Steven Seagal kick

[zY|]

We all have our faults.

That we do. We also all have fighters we don't like for various reasons.

[MMA_scientist]

Damn, Rogers looks like he is having a panic attack

[poopoo333]

I am still pissed about the Wilcox fight not actually happening. Fuck eyepokes

[zY|]

Who would you bet on at an even line?

Probably JDS.

[Svino]

Damn, Rogers looks like he is having a panic attack

He's looked afraid ever since Fedor punched him out.

[Luke]

He's hilarious when he's not getting popped for steroids and lying about it like a petulant child.

I thought we were talking about Barnett not Sonnen

[edman5555]

really? Apparently he has no training partners his own size as well. Maybe I should have gone with my original instincts. It has apparently been that way all night.

[SPX]

I think JDs would win.

I lean that way.

[zY|]

I thought we were talking about Barnett not Sonnen

Sonnen turned it into a circus but at least he addressed it. Barnett flips his shit if you even bring the issue up. Plus, he's been popped 3 times, not 1.

[SPX]

I thought we were talking about Barnett not Sonnen

I heard Barnett in an interview the other day on Sherdog and he cracked my ass up.

[Svino]

Sonnen turned it into a circus but at least he addressed it. Barnett flips his shit if you even bring the issue up. Plus, he's been popped 3 times, not 1.

I still think Dana owes Barnett big time for taking out Affliction for him.

[poopoo333]

This is hilarious.

[SPX]

Listen to these booing motherfuckers. If the ref stands this up and any time when Barnett has mount I'll be seriously pissed.

[Luke]

Figured it would end quickly once rogers went to his back but Barnett didnt really do shit

[edman5555]

sorry pp you were right. I pussied out big time tonight. If I had gone with my gut I would have made a killing tonight.

[MMA_scientist]

BArnett needs to do something here. He did the same thing with Yvel... just maintained mount the entire time.

[edman5555]

I did place a bet on this one going the distance. We will see. There is a chance.

[Svino]

Figured it would end quickly once rogers went to his back but Barnett didnt really do shit

It was similar with Yvel, I think.

[Svino]

Ninja'd by Scientist.

[MMA_scientist]

Rogers is totally outclassed here. He doesn't belong in there with these guys.

[poopoo333]

Barnett in round 2.. check
Overeem in round 1... waiting


If that prop parlay hits I am such a pimp

[edman5555]

oh god, attempted take down into full mount

[SPX]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[trotterz]

poopoo , here is you barnett in round 2
good luck for overeem in round 1 for a good payout

[zY|]

That went about as expected.

[poopoo333]

Rogers is totally outclassed here. He doesn't belong in there with these guys.

Yeah, his worst career move was beating AA.

[MMA_scientist]

Nice job guys. I hate myself. I had a striker/grappler matchup and I just did't pull the trigger.

[edman5555]

Well that went the way we all thought it would.

[MMA_scientist]

On a side note, that was waek by Rogers. Cardio/pussout tap.

[edman5555]

Nice job guys. I hate myself. I had a striker/grappler matchup and I just did't pull the trigger.

same here

[poopoo333]

Barnett is cutting another promo lmao. He is awesome. War Barnett.

[SPX]

You see, this is why Barnett is hilarious. . .

[MMA_scientist]

God, stfu douche, get out of cage.

[Svino]

Barnett does love his puroresu schtick.

[poopoo333]

Barnett got a heel reaction from a face promo. Stupid Texas crowd.

That is making me root for Barnett to win the whole thing.

[SPX]

Barnett is cutting another promo lmao. He is awesome. War Barnett.

Troof.

[edman5555]

oh god a fucking speech from josh barnett. Now I have seen it all.

[Luke]

Yeah, his worst career move was beating AA.


Yeah I actually feel sorry for him , he got thrown right into a pack of wolves

[poopoo333]

oh god a fucking speech from josh barnett. Now I have seen it all.

He was cutting a pro wrestling promo you n00b

[Luke]

God, stfu douche, get out of cage.


+1

[poopoo333]

Yeah I actually feel sorry for him , he got thrown right into a pack of wolves

He should be fighting guys like Aaron Rosa in the UFC. If he doesn't get cut by Strikeforce, he should fight Lavar Johnson next.

[zY|]

That promo was pretty silly, but snatching the mic away from Lipstick Johnson Kanye-style makes it allowable.

[SPX]

Yeah I actually feel sorry for him , he got thrown right into a pack of wolves

He was about where he should be when he was fighting guys like Abongo Humphrey.

He did steal a round from Fedor, though. I don't care what any one says.

[zY|]

He did steal a round from Fedor, though. I don't care what any one says.

OK Ludo. BOL!

[poopoo333]

He was about where he should be when he was fighting guys like Abongo Humphrey.

He did steal a round from Fedor, though. I don't care what any one says.

I didn't know getting beat up for 4:55 of a fight while landing some big shots from the top and a few jabs in the beginning of the fight=winning a round.