Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[Luke]

Overeem v Werdum
Barnett v Rogers
King Mo v St. Pruex
Carano vs TBA
Del Rosario v Cormier
V. Overeem v Griggs


http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/426.jpg

[SPX]

Dallas up in this motherfucker. Big D represent!

Good to see Carano's finally coming back. I really wonder what the future is for female fighters, though.

[Vandelay]

I thought king mo was facing roger gracie? I think OSP can beat him

[MMA_scientist]

Was looking forward to the Roger/Mo fight. Kind of glad it isn't happening though, because I think Mo is one of a handful of guys that could beat him.

[Luke]

Anyone know who the skinny chick is on the poster?

Is that the girl Gina's fighting because Gina's got a good 50 pounds on her

[poopoo333]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU3Udzzs9ng

[SPX]

Holy shit. What the fuck was that?

[zY|]

rofl Mauro is nuts

[Luke]

rofl Mauro is nuts

Crazy is the correct term I think

http://www.fightopinion.com/2011/04/11/mauro-ranallo-bipolar-affective-disorder/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fightopinion+%28FightOpinion. com+-+Your+Global+Connection+to+the+Fight+Industry.%29&utm_content=Twitter

[zY|]

I wouldn't necessarily say being bipolar makes you crazy. If we're going by DSM-IV diagnoses, half the population will eventually have something in there.

[Mr. IWS]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU3Udzzs9ng


Mind = Blown

[Luke]

I wouldn't necessarily say being bipolar makes you crazy. If we're going by DSM-IV diagnoses, half the population will eventually have something in there.

Well if it makes you feel any better I think half the population is crazy , I also think 80% of the population is stupid

[zY|]

Well if it makes you feel any better I think half the population is crazy , I also think 80% of the population is stupid

So you think 62.5% of the population is both crazy AND stupid?

I assume you consider yourself to be in the elite 20%?

[Luke]

So you think 62.5% of the population is both crazy AND stupid?

I assume you consider yourself to be in the elite 20%?


Well I'm not crazy and I'm not stupid so...............

[Luke]

So you think 62.5% of the population is both crazy AND stupid?



And no I dont think 62.5% of people are crazy and stupid , I think 50% of the population is both . To get your number of 62.5% we'd have to be refering to the whole as the stupid people . I said 50% of the entire populaton was stupid so 62.5% cant be crazy and stupid the most it could be is 50%


50 % of the population are crazy and stupid

30% of the population is just stupid

20% are neither stupid nor crazy

::handshake::

[zY|]

Oh I see. So like this?

http://jura.wi.mit.edu/bioc/tools/tmp/temp27655.png

80% are stupid, 50% are crazy, so the overlap is 30%.

[Luke]

^^^^^^stop being stupid zy or are you crazy and stupid?

[zY|]

That's for you to decide, supreme arbiter.

[Luke]

That's for you to decide, supreme arbiter.


http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/CNR_meh.jpg

[zY|]

rofl is that from the fucking Match Game?

[Luke]

rofl is that from the fucking Match Game?


lol yes

[Luke]

From MMAweekly




Confirmed from a few sources yesterday that King Mo vs. OSP is not happening



LOL one day after the posters came out

[MMA_scientist]

guess that means Roger vs. Mo is back on.

[Luke]

guess that means Roger vs. Mo is back on.


More than likely ,and it will be on the Fedor -Hendo PPV

[poopoo333]

Del Rosario in car accident, Noons-Masvidal targeted for "Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum" (http://mmajunkie.com/news/23513/del-rosario-in-car-accident-noons-masvidal-targeted-for-strikeforce-overeem-vs-werdum.mma)

[Luke]

Del Rosario in car accident, Noons-Masvidal targeted for "Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum" (http://mmajunkie.com/news/23513/del-rosario-in-car-accident-noons-masvidal-targeted-for-strikeforce-overeem-vs-werdum.mma)


I already saw that.............whoops guess that was in the july thread

[poopoo333]

Just bet on Barnett. I really don't think he will lose.


Showtime.com has Jeff Monson vs Daniel Cormier listed, so looks like Monson replaced Del Rosario.

[Mr. IWS]

Cormier Cut. Not sure it makes a difference, I think he will maul Monson anyway.

http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/228149_216854741665521_216851761665819_853947_5485 381_n.jpg

[Luke]

That isnt going to heal in a month is it?

[MMA_scientist]

sucks, i was going to bet Cormier and I was looking forward to that fight.

[poopoo333]

sucks, i was going to bet Cormier and I was looking forward to that fight.

Well he is still fighting as far as I know.



MAIN CARD (Showtime)


Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum (heavyweight grand-prix opening round)
Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers (heavyweight grand-prix opening round)
Gina Carano vs. Sarah D'Alelio
Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem

PRELIMINARY CARD (HDNet)


Jorge Masvidal vs. K.J. Noons
Julie Kedzie vs. TBA
Gesias Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox
Magno Almeida vs. Conor Heun
Mike Bronzoulis vs. Todd Moore*

[poopoo333]

Anybody have thoughts on Wilcox/JZ or Masivdal/Noons?

[poopoo333]

Carano fails to receive medical clearance, will not fight at "Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum" (http://mmajunkie.com/news/23902/carano-fails-to-receive-medical-clearance-will-not-fight-at-strikeforce-overeem-vs-werdum.mma)



She is either pregnant.

Too fat, has to drop too much weight.

Herpes.

Or she might have gotten SARS from me when I was fucking her.

[SPX]

Damn, what the fuck?????

[poopoo333]

Damn, what the fuck?????

She failed to receive medical clearance for the fight.

[Luke]

^^^^^^my guess is too fat to fight

[SPX]

I wouldn't be surprised if she never fights again.

[Luke]

Thankfully, SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/mma/06/07/carano.withdraws/index.html?sct=mma_t2_a3) was able to get in contact with the public information officer for the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation. According to Susan Stanford, Carano’s contestant application, which included a physician’s exam, an ophthalmologic screening and required blood test results, had already been approved.
“Gina Carano had met all of the state of Texas’ requirements and the agency received notice today that she was off the card,” Stanford told Loretta Hunt (http://twitter.com/#!/lorettahuntmma) of SI.com.
Outside of a brief statement read by Coker during today’s call, Carano has been mum regarding her abrupt exit.



..

[Mr. IWS]

Knocked up by Handy?

[SPX]

That's bitch's fighting career is over.

[Luke]

Odds are out

Pregnant +300

Couldnt make weight -250

Holding out for more money +200

[Thewisemann]

Pregnant

[Thewisemann]

.5 u on prego

[Thewisemann]

Scientist, thoughts on Cormier/Monson?

[poopoo333]

Josh Barnett Unlicensed in Texas, Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum Only 10 Days Out (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/6/8/2213483/josh-barnett-unlicensed-texas-strikeforce-overeem-werdum-mma-news)

[SPX]

This whole event is turning into a disaster.

[poopoo333]

As long as Ubereem fights Werdum I'm happy. Nobody cares about Carano. Barnett would have beaten Rogers easy anyways.

[Mr. IWS]

Josh Barnett Unlicensed in Texas, Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum Only 10 Days Out (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/6/8/2213483/josh-barnett-unlicensed-texas-strikeforce-overeem-werdum-mma-news)

This guy is such a fuckin clown

[poopoo333]

Seriously though, Barnett will fuck this up. He hasn't been cleared yet, and when he does he will probably just fail another drug test. Hopefully they have Del Rosario, Cormier, Johnson, or maybe even Sylvia to be a back up for this.

....

[SPX]

Nobody cares about Carano.

Speak for yourself.



Barnett would have beaten Rogers easy anyways.

Yeah, and I have 3u on him. And I was thinking of upping that to 5u.

[poopoo333]

Speak for yourself.


IF YOU DIDN'T CARE ABOUT THE GINA CARANO FIGHT, GIMME A HELL YEAH!

http://www.socal.com/absolutenm/articlefiles/4186-316.jpg

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist, thoughts on Cormier/Monson?

Cormier should win. It might be close on the feet, but I think Cormier mixes it up better and is also faster. On the mat, Cormier will always be on top... and although Monson is an ADCC champion, he has nothing off his back except a half guard sweep. He won't be able to sweep or submit Cormier IMO. My position has always been that the heavier the heavier the guy is, the more wrestling outweighs bjj. At HW wrestling > bjj (IMO). And now, I also think at LHW, wrestling > bjj. Aside from that, Monson is mostly a wrestler in his grappling approach. He has a very effective style for HW grappling, but he has to be on top to win.

But Cormier stood a lot in his last fight, so he will probably look to stand here as well. IMO, Cormier wins in either spot and has the advantage of getting to decide where the fight takes place.

So.... Cormier.

[MMA_scientist]

IF YOU DIDN'T CARE ABOUT THE GINA CARANO FIGHT, GIMME A HELL YEAH!

hell yeah.

[SPX]

IF YOU DIDN'T CARE ABOUT THE GINA CARANO FIGHT, GIMME A HELL YEAH!


hell yeah.

Yeah, but when have either of you faggots given a shit about ANY female fight.

[Ludo]

Truth be told I didn't give a shit about it either. She hasn't fought in almost two years and she comes back to fight what essentially amounts to fighting a squash match. I can't say I cared about it.

[SPX]

Well when has ANYONE here other than me really cared about women's MMA?

And the fact that she hasn't fought in 2 years actually makes it MORE interesting to me, not less.

[Luke]

Well when has ANYONE here other than me really cared about women's MMA?

And the fact that she hasn't fought in 2 years actually makes it MORE interesting to me, not less.


I watch a lot of womens mma fights .In fact, the only fights I usually watch on bellator cards are the womens fights and nothing else.......but I dont care about Carano either.

She had her chance and ran scared as soon as she lost one fight instead of training to come back better

[edman5555]

Yeah, but when have either of you faggots given a shit about ANY female fight.

If she has a really nice ass, then yes.

[Thewisemann]

Cormier should win. It might be close on the feet, but I think Cormier mixes it up better and is also faster. On the mat, Cormier will always be on top... and although Monson is an ADCC champion, he has nothing off his back except a half guard sweep. He won't be able to sweep or submit Cormier IMO. My position has always been that the heavier the heavier the guy is, the more wrestling outweighs bjj. At HW wrestling > bjj (IMO). And now, I also think at LHW, wrestling > bjj. Aside from that, Monson is mostly a wrestler in his grappling approach. He has a very effective style for HW grappling, but he has to be on top to win.

But Cormier stood a lot in his last fight, so he will probably look to stand here as well. IMO, Cormier wins in either spot and has the advantage of getting to decide where the fight takes place.

So.... Cormier.

Thanks for the breakdown. I wonder what the line will be.

[flyinggogoplata]

Burt rogers is the king of bums. Josh Barnett should be -750. Sams Club is in Rogers future. I unloaded on Barnett at -300. Once he hits that single leg Barnett will submit him.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I have money on Barnett too. I might add more.

[Vandelay]

Line's getting higher than i wanted it to get. I'll probably just take the Barnett inside distance prop.

[edman5555]

if they offer props for it. They should..

[SPX]

Speaking of Barnett, he gave a hilarious interview on the Savage Dog Show the other day. Y'all should check that shit out.

[poopoo333]

Does anybody have Overeem vs Werdum I? Also..any line guesses on the Cormier fight?

[Ludo]

uploading Werdum-Overeem1 now, I'll post the link when it's done.

[Vandelay]

http://www.mmageeks.co.cc/2010/11/alistair-overeem-vs-fabricio-werdum.html

[flyinggogoplata]

uploading Werdum-Overeem1 now, I'll post the link when it's done.::shake::


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufWMFLjvDTQ

[poopoo333]

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem
Jorge Masvidal vs. K.J. Noons


Maybe this would be better to do before all the lines come out?

[flyinggogoplata]

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem
Jorge Masvidal vs. K.J. Noons


Maybe this would be better to do before all the lines come out?



nice picks, I think you go undefeated.

[SPX]

I could see Masvidal beating Noons.

[Vandelay]

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem - Does not go the distance/under 1.5 rounds.
Jorge Masvidal vs. K.J. Noons

[Thewisemann]

Overeem
Barnett
Cormier
Overeem
Noons

[poopoo333]

Just watched Overeem/Werdum I. I am surprised Overeem was taking the fight to the mat. Do you guys think he will be avoiding that this time around? I am wondering if we will see Werdum trying to get the fight down..going to his back with his legs open and signaling Ubereem to come lay in between his legs while Ubereem just walks away.

[flyinggogoplata]

Just watched Overeem/Werdum I. I am surprised Overeem was taking the fight to the mat. Do you guys think he will be avoiding that this time around? I am wondering if we will see Werdum trying to get the fight down..going to his back with his legs open and signaling Ubereem to come lay in between his legs while Ubereem just walks away.

yeah I think overoid tried to go to the mat because he was gassing badly. May happen again?

[poopoo333]

Ubereem's line is way too high. I will probably just put him in a parlay with Cormier and Griggs.

[flyinggogoplata]

I know one thing, Werdum handled Silva's big ass so Overeem's size wont be a huge factor.

[Luke]

Just watched Overeem/Werdum I. I am surprised Overeem was taking the fight to the mat. Do you guys think he will be avoiding that this time around? I am wondering if we will see Werdum trying to get the fight down..going to his back with his legs open and signaling Ubereem to come lay in between his legs while Ubereem just walks away.

you got a link to that fight?

[poopoo333]

Scroll up.

[Vandelay]

I know one thing, Werdum handled Silva's big ass so Overeem's size wont be a huge factor.

And by handled you mean survived and neutralized a gassed fighter?

[flyinggogoplata]

And by handled you mean survived and neutralized a gassed fighter?

you know what I mean.

[Vandelay]

He was beaten pretty badly in rd 1 almost got finished, rd 2 was close, and rd 3 werdum won. Big foot was never in trbl on the ground or at any point in the fight even tho he was gassed so im not sure what u mean. Now if you meant that Werdum wouldn't get abused on the ground...I dont think anyone would have argued that Overeem would just ragdoll him.

[flyinggogoplata]

He was beaten pretty badly in rd 1 almost got finished, rd 2 was close, and rd 3 werdum won. Big foot was never in trbl on the ground or at any point in the fight even tho he was gassed so im not sure what u mean. Now if you meant that Werdum wouldn't get abused on the ground...I dont think anyone would have argued that Overeem would just ragdoll him.

I thought Werdum handled the sheer size of Silva like no one before.

[poopoo333]

I really hope Ubereem wins. I don't want to see Werdum/Silva II. Ubereem/Bigfoot would be awesome.

[flyinggogoplata]

I was watching some Overeem training footage and he had a huge brace on his elbow.

[Thewisemann]

I say Reem 1st rd KO

[MMA_scientist]

I think Bigfoot is going to win the whole thing, regardless of who wins Overeem/Werdum. I would like to see Werdum beat Overeem, but he is going to have to pull something out... it is Overeem's fight to lose.

[MMA_scientist]

guess we can get to work on this card.

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

Overeem is probably going to blast him on the feet, but I wouldn't sleep on Werdum. Werdum never gets any credit, despite being the only guy other than Fedor to remain in the top 10 over the "changing of the guard" period... say from around 2006 until now. Back then, it was all Arlovski, Sylvia, Noguiera, etc. It is all new guys now, except Werdum and Fedor. Werdum is big as hell and most likely he is going to be looking for a takedown right away this time. Still, you have to favor Overeem. It took Werdum a long time to submit him last time, and Overeem willingly spent most of the fight in his guard. This time Overeem is not going to go down willingly. Werdum has gotten better since then, but still. That said, I am banking on Overeem folding up mentally if he doesn't put it away fast and dirty.

Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
Barnett should take him down and pound him out. Standing, I think Barnett still has a chance there too. The only issue is that Rogers comes out full blast, street brawl style. Anything can happen in the first 2 minutes... but depsite being a giant douche, Barnett is a damn fine fighter and I think he will win easily.

K.J. Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal
I got Noons doing the standard gameplan here, sprawl and brawl. I doubt Masvidal can get him down much. I really don't know much about Masvidal's striking level though... need input here.

Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Everyone knows I think Cormier is a future champ. He is going to get a big test here though as Monson can box and grapple. Even though Monson is a former ADCC champ, he won't be able to beat Cormier on the mat IMO, unless he somehow gets on top of him. Monson basically won ADCC by takedowns and not getting subbed. He doesn't have any submissions wins over good grapplers (in MMA or ADCC)... he has to be on top to execute his game. I seriously doubt he can get on top of Cormier. He might be able to win it standing though if Cormier decides to keep it there, which he may do. I still think Cormier has more standing though.

Valentijn Overeem vs. Chad Griggs
Griggs wins on grit. Just like his bother, Val is frontrunner, he will fold up when he can't put Griggs away.

Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox
Tough fight to call. Wilcox has looked great, but this is a big step up in competition. Wilcox is super strong and stocky wrestler. His hands are average IMO. JZ is decent wrestler with better submissions and slightly better hands. I am leaning JZ. Need input here too.

Conor Heun vs. Magno Almeida
Magno is supposed to be a hot prospect. BE had him on thier list of top prospects at LW. They are both bjj blackbelts, but Conor is also a D1 wrestler. I haven't seen Magno fight, so I need to look at this one more.




thoughts, breakdowns, opinions?

[flyinggogoplata]

If you take Werdum would it be straight up or by submission? I could really see him grabbing rounds 2 and 3 if it went the distance. I'm leaning Werdum straight up but will his line go higher then +300?

[SPX]

I think Masvidal/Noons has to do with which guy brings their A-game. The best Noons beats the best Masvidal, but the best Masvidal beats a Noons who's not trying is hardest. Masvidal's boxing is pretty damn solid, better than a lot of guys at LW. But of course Noons's is too.

[MMA_scientist]

If you take Werdum would it be straight up or by submission? I could really see him grabbing rounds 2 and 3 if it went the distance. I'm leaning Werdum straight up but will his line go higher then +300?


I already took him straight up. I don't like to try to narrow down a finish, it doesn't work for me.

The thing is that Werdum is very hard to put away, he has only been stopped once in his career, by JDS. He is very hard to gnp, so Reem really needs to put the lights out standing to get a stoppage. Even though Overeem hits like a truck, it is usually more death by bludgeoning... he has the knees, but it usually is not just knocking someone dead with a precision shot. I do worry about the knees though. Werdum is going to be looking to to tie him up, and Overeem will be throwing knees like a wildman. Probably in the junk and elsewhere. But Werdum does get rocked all the time standing, it just that he recovers pretty quickly and his posture control from guard is so good that it is hard to hurt him from top.

Since Overeem has always wilted as fights wear on, I am banking on survival from Werdum and then turn the tide later in the fight. Still, in good conscience, I have to admit that Overeem is probably going to win. Is it a 5 rounder?

[poopoo333]

I agree with basically everything you said Scientist. I am not sure about the Wilcox/Calvacante fight though. The thing about Wilcox is that the fights of his that are fresh in my mind, his gameplan was "sprawl and brawl". Do you think he will want to keep it standing? Or do you think he will use his wrestling? Is he the type of wrestler that uses the fence, grinds, and drags people to the floor? Or is he the type of wrestler that shoots from a distance/has a big double leg?

[poopoo333]

Is it a 5 rounder?

No.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Masvidal/Noons has to do with which guy brings their A-game. The best Noons beats the best Masvidal, but the best Masvidal beats a Noons who's not trying is hardest. Masvidal's boxing is pretty damn solid, better than a lot of guys at LW. But of course Noons's is too.

Soo... what are you saying? Where would you put the line if it were a kickboxing match? I think Noons can keep it standing, so that just leaves striking.

[sbjj]

I love underdogs as much as anyone. BUT, Werdum is not going to beat Overeem. And I had a healthy bet on Werdum over Fedor. Overeem is not the same fighter he once was. He is calm, and calculating. HE WILL NOT GAS! This is a 3 round fight, and he either stops Werdum, or batters him for 3 rounds.

The only play this fight I see is to parlay Overeem with another fight you have confidence in. I am personally going to parlay him with Josh.

Rogers is just not on Barnetts level.

I favor Noons, but not by a whole lot.

Same with Cormier.

[MMA_scientist]

No.

well that sucks. I would definitely like Werdum more in a longer fight. I think Overeem will start to fade in round 2, but he may still win the round (assuming it makes it that far).

[SPX]

Soo... what are you saying? Where would you put the line if it were a kickboxing match? I think Noons can keep it standing, so that just leaves striking.

I think the line should be pretty close to even, with Noons slightly favored.

I would probably bet Noons at -130 or better and would bet Masvidal at +150 or better.

[flyinggogoplata]

Everyone is basing the new Overeem based on what he did in K-1. Overeem has only faced one guy in the top ten at heavyweight. And it was the bum Burt Rogers.

[MMA_scientist]

I love underdogs as much as anyone. BUT, Werdum is not going to beat Overeem. And I had a healthy bet on Werdum over Fedor. Overeem is not the same fighter he once was. He is calm, and calculating. HE WILL NOT GAS! This is a 3 round fight, and he either stops Werdum, or batters him for 3 rounds.

The only play this fight I see is to parlay Overeem with another fight you have confidence in. I am personally going to parlay him with Josh.

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

[sbjj]

Everyone is basing the new Overeem based on what he did in K-1. Overeem has only faced one guy in the top ten at heavyweight. And it was the bum Burt Rogers.

No, some people are actually looking at what kind of fighter he has become. He no longer has wasted energy like he did at 205. He is a very calculated striker, and does not overextend himself. I think many people are looking back years ago and basing their current opininions on a fighter that no longer exists.

Fighters change, and they improve.

Oh, and this will look like one of his K1 fights. because Werdum will not take him down.

[flyinggogoplata]

No, some people are actually looking at what kind of fighter he has become. He no longer has wasted energy like he did at 205. He is a very calculated striker, and does not overextend himself. I think many people are looking back years ago and basing their current opininions on a fighter that no longer exists.

Fighters change, and they improve.

Oh, and this will look like one of his K1 fights. because Werdum will not take him down.

Uh wasn't he at Heavyweight when Sergei straight melted him when he gassed horribly again?

[sbjj]

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

He will not gas because his fighting style has changed. The guy looked like he just got out of bed after he smashed Rogers.

[flyinggogoplata]

What makes you so certain he won't gas out? He hasn't been out of round 1 in like 3 years. Also, he has only gone to round 2 twice in the last 5 years. Werdum is difficult to put away.

I am not saying Overeem will lose, and as I said, you have to favor Overeem at this point... but I like the odds on Werdum a lot more. My issue with Overeem is that he really hasn't faced anyone very good in the last 3 years, basically since becoming "uber-reem."

Still, I did not think about the fact that Werdum is coming off surgery, and he could gas out too.

I really think Overeem is a media creation, with the web series and all. He really hasn't proved anything for all the hype he's getting. So what he ko'd Duffeee, so did a 300 lb overweight cop.

[flyinggogoplata]

He will not gas because his fighting style has changed. The guy looked like he just got out of bed after he smashed Rogers.

Again did you see the Sergei fight? He gassed again and he was at Heavyweight, He also gassed against Werdum and that was at Heavyweight.

[sbjj]

Uh wasn't he at Heavyweight when Sergei straight melted him when he gassed horribly again?

Obviously I will not get you to agree with me. You did not even read(understand) my post. Him gassing has little to do with his weight. It has to do with his fighting style. IT HAS CHANGED. If you do not see that, than bet a nice chunk on Werdum, you are getting nice dog odds.

And Sergei still could be his kryptonite even today...A tough as nails striker who can take a good shot and hang with anyone on the feet. Sergei is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of Werdum.

[MMA_scientist]

He will not gas because his fighting style has changed. The guy looked like he just got out of bed after he smashed Rogers.

Yeah, but that fight was only a few minutes. I am not saying he WILL gas out... just wondered how you were arriving at your conclusion. I can accept that you observe that he is more relaxed and calculated. I agree he looks different. But I don't know how much we can glean from the string of strikers he has faced in MMA. The better fighters he has fought have all been pretty favorable stylistically. Hell, even Werdum is not a bad stylistic matchup for him, because he doesnt' really bring the takedown pressure than wears guys out.

Side note, I am interested on your opinion on the Kongo/Barry fight if you would share. They are discussing it in the UFC on Versus 4 thread.

[flyinggogoplata]

Obviously I will not get you to agree with me. You did not even read(understand) my post. Him gassing has little to do with his weight. It has to do with his fighting style. IT HAS CHANGED. If you do not see that, than bet a nice chunk on Werdum, you are getting nice dog odds.

And Sergei still could be his kryptonite even today...A tough as nails striker who can take a good shot and hang with anyone on the feet. Sergei is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of Werdum.

Understand? Come on, lets discuss fights instead of insulting each others intelligence. Low Blow IMO.

[sbjj]

Yeah, but that fight was only a few minutes. I am not saying he WILL gas out... just wondered how you were arriving at your conclusion. I can accept that you observe that he is more relaxed and calculated. I agree he looks different. But I don't know how much we can glean from the string of strikers he has faced in MMA. The better fighters he has fought have all been pretty favorable stylistically. Hell, even Werdum is not a bad stylistic matchup for him, because he doesnt' really bring the takedown pressure than wears guys out.

Side note, I am interested on your opinion on the Kongo/Barry fight if you would share. They are discussing it in the UFC on Versus 4 thread.

That is the thing. I also believe Werdum is a good style match up. I just do not believe he will pressure Overeem like he needs to. He may try, but I think it will fail. I will head over to the other thread.

[sbjj]

Understand? Come on, lets discuss fights instead of insulting each others intelligence. Low Blow IMO.

No low blow. You obviously did not read or understand my post. I never once brought up weight. And actually clarified more than once about his fighting style.

[MMA_scientist]

That is the thing. I also believe Werdum is a good style match up. I just do not believe he will pressure Overeem like he needs to. He may try, but I think it will fail. I will head over to the other thread.

Agree that generally bjj guy with limited takedowns is a good matchup for striker with good takedown defense. Like sideloaded though, I am just not sold on Overeem. He can obviously strike, but I want to see what happens when he can't dominate. Even when he fought Cro Cop a couple years back, he got frustrated because he wasn't able to tee off, and he started throwing nut shots on purpose. Even in his K1 run, he threw a bunch of illegal knees from the clinch when he was getting landed on (he probably could have been DQ'd). I think Werdum can frustrate him and he will make a mistake and/or wear down, and that is where the value on Werdum is for me. I also concede that it is Overeem's fight to lose. But at the current line, Overeem just hasn't proved it to me yet against good fighters.

[flyinggogoplata]

No low blow. You obviously did not read or understand my post. I never once brought up weight. And actually clarified more than once about his fighting style.

I understand your point. He doesn't waste energy like he did at 205. To me that doesn't make a lot of sense because all his fights recently were against guys who had pretty low skill sets (James Thompson) so of course he didn't need to "waste energy" like at 205. And the fight agianst Sergei he wasn't setting some torrid pace, he just gassed. Agianst anybody that actually pushed him in the fight he has gassed.

[sbjj]

I understand your point. He doesn't waste energy like he did at 205. To me that doesn't make a lot of sense because all his fights recently were against guys who had pretty low skill sets (James Thompson) so of course he didn't need to "waste energy" like at 205. And the fight agianst Sergei he wasn't setting some torrid pace, he just gassed. Agianst anybody that actually pushed him in the fight he has gassed.

How is Werdum going to push him?

[flyinggogoplata]

How is Werdum going to push him?

Pulling guard is one. Also Werdum is a black belt in Muay Thai now.

[sbjj]

Pulling guard is one.

Aint gonna happen. Not 100% certain. But I am 98% certain. That shit just is not as easy as most think.

[poopoo333]

Pulling guard is one. Also Werdum is a black belt in Muay Thai now.

I don't think pulling guard on Ubereem will take a hit on his cardio. Maybe pushing him against the fence and going for a chain of takedowns repeatedly would be pushing him, but not pulling guard.

[sbjj]

I don't think pulling guard on Ubereem will take a hit on his cardio. Maybe pushing him against the fence and going for a chain of takedowns repeatedly would be pushing him, but not pulling guard.

More plausible. But IMO Overeem will be able to push him off easily.

[Vandelay]

I'm surprised you guys think monson has good striking. I dont think he's ever knocked any1 out standing, he's got short arms, telegraphs everything, is slow, and only uses his hands. His best punch is probably his left hook and thats not great either. Cormier picks him apart standing in my mind and I doubt monson can take him down. I think the line will open around Cormier -300, if not higher.

[flyinggogoplata]

I can't believe everyone thinks Werdum's wrestling is so bad and this fight isn't hitting the ground. Overeem was taken down by Mark Hunt.

[poopoo333]

More plausible. But IMO Overeem will be able to push him off easily.

Yeah, I was just using that as an example. I don't think that's going to happen at all.

[flyinggogoplata]

Yeah, I was just using that as an example. I don't think that's going to happen at all.

Where are you guys getting that Overeem has good take down defense? Again Mark Hunt took him down.

[Vandelay]

Interesting point with the frontrunner thing. I used to only think about BJ as a frontrunner, but OVereem may be one as well. He's only got one decision win in his career. He did beat spong by decision in K1 recently so maybe his mindset has changed.

[poopoo333]

Here is the vid sideloaded keeps talking about:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pty8Ma8QDbU

[flyinggogoplata]

Fighting mostly in japan in a ring, focusing on k-1, training with golden glory, and spending some time of your training camp in Thailand is not going to sharpen your wrestling.

If you say Werdum's wrestling sucks that's fine, but at least he's training in America and working on his wrestling everyday.

[Vandelay]

Here is the vid sideloaded keeps talking about:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pty8Ma8QDbU

He locked that up while hunt was in side control. Thats pathetic.

[edman5555]

I have no idea who wins werdum/overeem. I guess I favor Overeem but it is correct that he really hasn't beaten anyone good recently. Even his K1 grand prix win isn't quite as impressive as it sounds. He didn't have to fight Semmy Schilt, the champ. Then he got to fight the guy that had just spent 15 minutes getting his ass kicked by Semmy Schilt. That is a pretty good deal IMO. He could of had to fight Semmy for 15 minutes, a fight he could have lost. Then he would have to go in and fight a fresh Peter Aerts. I'm not saying he isn't good, he obv is but I feel like he gets a lot of hype because of the K1 win. Some of it isn't deserved due to that reason.

Also, he has been fighting cans. We all know that. When he wasn't fighting cans in mma, he was getting his ass kicked. He is bigger now, but he is in a bigger weight class.

He did throw Brett Rogers around like he was a small child. That is true, but Brett Rogers doesn't really have any special skill if you ask me. He is no great wrestler, bjj player, judo player, or striker. He is basically a brawler that got lucky and ko'd arlovski, and caught a much much smaller Fedor with a jab (He cut his face and got some cred for that). Rogers is basically a mediocre fighter and that is being nice. Not to mention he is tailor made for Overeem to beat. Brawler Vs K1 striker? Not even fair if you ask me. Rogers looked scared shitless in the fight.

Werdum isn't that bad standing anymore and he has already beaten overeem. Since then, Werdum has improved and I am sure Reem has too.

Either way the line is way off. Reem shouldn't be favored this much. He just is because of his K1 win(good match ups), his unbeaten streak ( good match ups of cans and can strikers), and his muscle gain/ubereem PR campaign.

I guess the most sensible thing is Werdum at the lines. I probably won't bet it, maybe 1u.

I do acknowledge that Overeem might walk out there and just straight KO werdum.

[flyinggogoplata]

http://mmaweekly.com/the-big-payback-alistair-overeem-predicts-a-much-different-fight-with-werdum-this-time

Looks like Overeem is going to balls to the wall in this fight. If he doesn't get the ko quick seems like he has no back up plan.

[sbjj]

http://mmaweekly.com/the-big-payback-alistair-overeem-predicts-a-much-different-fight-with-werdum-this-time

Looks like Overeem is going to balls to the wall in this fight. If he doesn't get the ko quick seems like he has no back up plan.

With all due respect, I think you are reaching. I could probably dig up an article where Werdum says he thinks he can hang with Overeem on the feet...BUT, does that mean he will make it a kickboxing contest?

Overeem obviously tries to KO his opponents...It does not mean he will go ape shit right from the start.

[flyinggogoplata]

With all due respect, I think you are reaching. I could probably dig up an article where Werdum says he thinks he can hang with Overeem on the feet...BUT, does that mean he will make it a kickboxing contest?

Overeem obviously tries to KO his opponents...It does not mean he will go ape shit right from the start.

yeah he might be just hyping the fight.

[flyinggogoplata]

It's kind of cool that werdum is the lineal HW champ and this fight will unify the dream and strikeforce belts with the lineal belts that Werdum took from fedor (pride,ufc,Rings). This fight is truly epic.


Mark Coleman beat Daniel Severn wins first UFC heavyweight champion
02/07/1997 UFC 12: Judgement Day Submission 2:57 of Round 1

Maurice Smith beat Mark Coleman
07/27/1997 UFC 14: Showdown Decision Unanimous Decision

Randy Couture beat Maurice Smith
12/21/1997 UFC: Ultimate Japan 1 Decision Majority Decision

Enson Inoue beat Randy Couture
10/25/1998 Loss Vale Tudo Japan 98 Submission Arm Bar 1:39 Round 1

Mark Kerr beat Enson Inoue
01/30/2000 Pride: Grand Prix 2000 Opening Round Decision

Kazuyuki Fujita beat Mark Kerr, shortest running linear champion (part of an evening)
05/01/2000 Pride: Grand Prix 2000 Final Round Decision Unanimous Decision

Mark Coleman beat Kazuyuki Fujita by forfeit, becoming the only two-time linear champion
05/01/2000 Pride: Grand Prix 2000 Final Round TKO/RSC Corner Threw in the Towel due to a Knee Injury

Antonio Nogueira beat Mark Coleman, enjoys second longest run as linear champion
09/24/2001 Pride 16: Beasts From The East Submission Arm Bar 6:10 of Round 1

Fedor Emelianenko beat Antonio Nogueira, longest running linear champion
12/31/2004 Pride: Shock Wave 2004 Decision Unanimous Decision

Fabricio Werdum beat Fedor Emelianenko
06/26/2010 Strikeforce: Insider Submission Arm Triangle Choke 1:09 Round 1

[Thewisemann]

I have Overeem 3.22u to win 1.5u. Got him at -215 and i love that line. I may parlay Barnett and Cormier.

[MMA_scientist]

Overeem doesn't suck on the ground. Don't forget that he has 19 wins by submission to only 14 by (t)ko. Like I mentioned, Werdum had him right where he wanted for most of the fight in the 1st matchup, and he couldn't do anything with it for like 12 minutes.

For me, the possibility that Werdum takes him down coupled with the possibility that Overeem folds (or loses a point for nutshots or kneeing him while down)... I have to bet Werdum. Overeem will probably be a little wary about charging forward too, which may take some of the stank off his strikes. But I don't pretend that Overeem doesn't have the skills to win or that Werdum should be favored. Everything points to Overeem, but I still think Werdum has a great chance based on survival skills. Once that initial round is over, I think we could see some takedowns and Werdum's hand being raised.

[MMA_scientist]

I'm surprised you guys think monson has good striking. I dont think he's ever knocked any1 out standing, he's got short arms, telegraphs everything, is slow, and only uses his hands. His best punch is probably his left hook and thats not great either. Cormier picks him apart standing in my mind and I doubt monson can take him down. I think the line will open around Cormier -300, if not higher.

I am not saying he has good hands... but they aren't horrible. He went like 6-0 as a pro boxer. But I am just saying, he is probably at least as godo as Cormier there. Cormier mixes it up better though IMO.

Also, watch Monson vs. Roy Nelson: http://vodpod.com/watch/1452837-march-badness-jeff-monson-vs-roy-nelson

Monson doesn't have shit off his back. He did well standing with Roy though... not really sure how he got the decision in that, Roy clearly won IMO.

[sbjj]

One of the worst decisions. And yes, I was surprised how flat Jeff was on his back. I think Daniel would be smart to just put Monson on his back.

[flyinggogoplata]

whats up with this card less than a week out and only odds on two fights? the fuck?

[flyinggogoplata]

here is the video I saw with something going on with Alistair's elbow.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qec7L6bDCLE&feature=channel_video_title

I watched a few of the reem series, Im a fan.

[Vandelay]

I am not saying he has good hands... but they aren't horrible. He went like 6-0 as a pro boxer. But I am just saying, he is probably at least as godo as Cormier there. Cormier mixes it up better though IMO.

Also, watch Monson vs. Roy Nelson: http://vodpod.com/watch/1452837-march-badness-jeff-monson-vs-roy-nelson

Monson doesn't have shit off his back. He did well standing with Roy though... not really sure how he got the decision in that, Roy clearly won IMO.

I did watch that fight before i posted the first time. Roy's standup looked pretty bad in that fight. I guess now that I think about it Roy really only has an overhand right and thats about it. Monson's inability to take him down was a little surprising cause that's how I figured he won a decision. And his boxing record was againsts nobodies with horrible records. Let's not forget that monson is also close to 40 years old...I don't know, I just have a hard time seeing how he wins the fight. Don't see him outpointing corm on the feet, koing him, outwrestling him, or winning off his back. That basically leaves a sub via guillotine or gets mount somehow

[MMA_scientist]

^^ agreed. I am going to be all over Cormier. I would still take him at -300. Cormier is the man and Monson has nothing for him.

[poopoo333]

http://betmma.ca/2011/06/13/monson-bjj-is-cormiers-weakness/

[flyinggogoplata]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cjXuyJhiT4&feature=player_embedded

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^didnt he pick Carwin too? Maybe he's taken too many shots to the head

[flyinggogoplata]

^^^^^^^^^didnt he pick Carwin too? Maybe he's taken too many shots to the head
BOL

[poopoo333]

KJ Noons said on Helwani's MMA Hour that they were told that the winner is #1 contender for Melendez

[poopoo333]

I forgot to include the *** thing next to the fighter you are most confident to win along with your picks. My **** would be next to Barnett. But it's basically a tie between Barnett and Cormier.

[MMA_scientist]

Overeem to -500 in some places now. That is just stupid. Overeem will probably win, but cmon...

.5u on Werdum @ +290

[Vandelay]

Distance props are out. barnett and rogers to go distance is -420/+300. Werdum and Overeem is -380/+260 and thats come down from over 400. I think theres a good chance that this fight reaches a decision. OR at least better than the odds theyre giving it. Probably will just stay away.

[poopoo333]

I will probably parlay both the GP fights to not go the distance. Rogers is going to tap to assrape, and Werdum is going to be making out with the Strikeforce logo on the mat.

[flyinggogoplata]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/375.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)


hammered Wilcox at +165

[MMA_scientist]

Surprised at Wilcox line. Thought that would be close to even

[MMA_scientist]

I want to do Cormier/Barnett, but I wonder if Barnett is off the stuff. I am afraid he is going to look like all the pride guys coming over to the UFC for the first time... they all looked like shit fighting without the juice for the first time.

[flyinggogoplata]

Does the texas athletic commission even drug test?

[Mr. IWS]

Cormier looking fawkin j00cy at that number.

[Vandelay]

Rogers isn't good at all. His claim to fame is blitzing Arlovski which is something alot of people have done. He is a guy with big power and not much else. Barnett is a skilled heavyweight who is supposed to have a pretty good chin. He probably doesnt have much time left in this sport, but he should be able to handle Rogers, a guy who i wouldn't put anywhere near the top 10 and probably not even in the top 25. He'd lose to Joey Beltran.

[MMA_scientist]

Rogers isn't good at all. His claim to fame is blitzing Arlovski which is something alot of people have done. He is a guy with big power and not much else. Barnett is a skilled heavyweight who is supposed to have a pretty good chin. He probably doesnt have much time left in this sport, but he should be able to handle Rogers, a guy who i wouldn't put anywhere near the top 10 and probably not even in the top 25. He'd lose to Joey Beltran.

I agree on all counts... but he is big. Just saying, if Barnett is a weakling now, he could have trouble forcing a tie up. Brawling works pretty well in MMA.

[poopoo333]

6u Cormier, 2u WIlcox

[Vandelay]

Might as well just wait and play the Wilcox by dec. He wont be finishing JZ

[flyinggogoplata]

so when does 5dimes usually open lines?

[MMA_scientist]

5d will probably have lines later today or tomorrow. They don't always offer props on SF cards... though they have been lately.

I am thinking about several bets here.

Noons/Masvidal goes the distance, Cormier, Wilcox/JZ goes the distance, Barnett.

The Cormier and Wilcox lines are already on the move though... so we will see.

[Vandelay]

Cormier is gonna end up above -400 unfortunately. 5dimes came out with props on thursday last week so i expect the same this week.

If they offer props im going with the not werdum by tko/ko, not rogers/noons by sub, not oldereem/griggs going distance, not cormier by sub, not wilcox by sub

[MMA_scientist]

Cormier is gonna end up above -400 unfortunately. 5dimes came out with props on thursday last week so i expect the same this week.

If they offer props im going with the not werdum by tko/ko, not rogers/noons by sub, not oldereem/griggs going distance, not cormier by sub, not wilcox by sub

Yeah, I can make a nice magic parlay out of these fights if they offer all the props. They usually don't though. They did for Fedor/Bigfoot though, because I remember I had "not bigfoot by submission" and I shit my pants when he locked up a kimura on Fedor.

[Luke]

If I can get a Noons-Cormier parlay at around even I'll probably bet it

[SPX]

.5u on Masvidal and Valentijn

I'd bet Cormier but all my funds are tied up now.

[SPX]

If I can get a Noons-Cormier parlay at around even I'll probably bet it

I really think Noons could lose. It will be close.

[Vandelay]

Yea no way im bettin noons against a guy that has good takedowns and good striking

[flyinggogoplata]

Valentijn Overeem wtf is with this guy? How can you submit Randy Couture then go on to be arm-barred by Gilbert Yvel?

[Luke]

Yea no way im bettin noons against a guy that has good takedowns and good striking


No one told you to

[poopoo333]

Griggs is going to beat Oldereem. Oldereem sucks. 6.25u on Griggs @-125

[flyinggogoplata]

Griggs is going to beat Oldereem. Oldereem sucks. 6.25u on Griggs @-125

you're on dat man shit

[Johnny Unreliable]

Don't think anyone mentioned it but don't you have to factor elbows into the equation as well? Submissions are a bit harder with elbows even if the reem is dumb and decides to go down with werdum.

In the first fight Overeem seemed to have no problem avoiding takedowns and was taking Werdum down almost at will. Have to factor in that Werdum also had the ten minute opening round which gives you a lot more time to work on the ground. He's going to have to get Overeem down and submit him in five minutes and the fight starts on the feet. With how long it took last time I don't think that's a likely scenario, I believe the sub came around the 12 minute mark of the fight. And I don't see Overeem going for takedowns this time, though I guess it's possible. There was also a lot of clinching in the last fight and I think the more physically imposing overeem will throw Werdum around in the clinch now.

I agree with most everyone it's Overeem's fight to lose, but I don't like the current line much either. Might just pass. Overeem under -250 I'd take in a heartbeat but I missed the line.

Pretty much agree with the breakdown on most of the other fights.

[sbjj]

Thoughts on JZ-Wilcox?

I think I am going to parlay Cormier-Barnett large, and Cormier-Barnett-Overeem small.

[sbjj]

And maybe Griggs small(depending on the price I get)

[MMA_scientist]

Thoughts on JZ-Wilcox?

I think I am going to parlay Cormier-Barnett large, and Cormier-Barnett-Overeem small.

Cormier/Barnett is probably my play as well... just can't seem to pull the trigger on Barnett for some reason though.


JZ-Wilcox- I think JZ is better at everything except wrestling. Wilcox can probably force a standup fight for at least much of the fight, or he may be able to hold JZ down. I think JZ could definitely submit him though and will probably be better standing. I favor JZ to win, but Wilcox could definitely steal it with a few takdeowns near the ends of rounds.

[sbjj]

Cormier/Barnett is probably my play as well... just can't seem to pull the trigger on Barnett for some reason though.


JZ-Wilcox- I think JZ is better at everything except wrestling. Wilcox can probably force a standup fight for at least much of the fight, or he may be able to hold JZ down. I think JZ could definitely submit him though and will probably be better standing. I favor JZ to win, but Wilcox could definitely steal it with a few takdeowns near the ends of rounds.

You know, if Josh was fighting someone else, I would have the same feeling. But Rogers is just plain OK. Nothing special at all. And in his last couple of fights, he just looked plain clumsy.

[Vandelay]

I'll probably make the corm/barnett/reem parlay as well. I don't think reem should be that big of a fav, but I just don't think Werdum is that great. He was losing to big foot b4 he gassed and fedor decided to jump into his guard and payed for it. Mayb he's just resilient, but overeem should take this. I've never really been impressed with barnett either. He's just a slow, unathletic fighter. But he usually finds a way to win. It's more a play against Rogers than it is on Barnett. And Corm is a pretty damn good striker who should be really tough to take down. Cormier's own takedowns aren't nearly as good as they should be for an olympic level wrestler, but they aren't bad either. Monson's best years are behind him.

[MMA_scientist]

Someone please go to 5d and try to do a parlay on "not overeem by submission/not rogers by submission" for over $100. I am pretty sure 5d just lowered my motherfuckin limits.

[MMA_scientist]

http://i813.photobucket.com/albums/zz51/bpilgrim/Untitled33.png

[MMA_scientist]

Someone plz check if this is just me or if it is everyone.

[Thewisemann]

All my $$ is pending.

[flyinggogoplata]

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9233/screenshotbh.png

[flyinggogoplata]

tony got to you mang. That asshole will cut you to $1 if you complain.

[Luke]

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9233/screenshotbh.png

LOL sideloaded he said try it ,not make the actual bet


Yeah MMAscientist your limits have been cut ,it let me risk up to 250 on that bet.

What will it let you risk ?

[flyinggogoplata]

LOL sideloaded he said try it ,not make the actual bet


Yeah MMAscientist your limits have been cut ,it let me risk up to 250 on that bet.

What will it let you risk ?

LOL in the heat of the moment I just clicked through. Oh well I think it will hit.

[MMA_scientist]

fucking cocksuckmotherofshitblueballscocksuckerpieceofshit assfuckdogfuckingdickfacecocksucker.

it won't let me bet more than 100

[MMA_scientist]

I wasn't even going to bet it, I just wanted to see the payout.

[flyinggogoplata]

I tipped off tony last week that you were a pro player. He gave me a 100 dollar freeplay for keeping the world a safe place.

[MMA_scientist]

False alarm. It is letting me bet now. I think the line was not set yet on Overeem/Werdum... because it only flagged that bet. I put in $999... But the line was only like -760 on "not overeem by submission" which I thought had a lot of value. They had Overeem by sub @ +490 and Werdum by sub @+790... so something was off.

It is letting me bet now.

sideloaded, every since you started saying that shit last week, you have me paranoid.

[flyinggogoplata]

glad it all worked out.

[Luke]

I tipped off tony last week that you were a pro player. He gave me a 100 dollar freeplay for keeping the world a safe place.


::lmao::::lmao::::lmao::

[poopoo333]

Overeem by (T)KO @-130 seems like the way to go if you're going to bet him. Unless Werdum is a fucking pussy and taps to strikes. Or maybe Ubereem will dominate Werdum on the mat and have his back for 3 rounds.

[Luke]

Me thinks Barnett is preparing for the wrong type of "fight" this weekend


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TncvorpGb6k

[poopoo333]

^^That's not the whole thing, he cuts a promo on this one:

http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/06/16/at-strikeforce-workouts-josh-barnett-decides-to-put-on-a-show/


That promo looks familiar:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxC3oAD1iUg

[poopoo333]

Oh man... I just watched an interview with Helwani and Cormier, and Helwani asked Cormier if his newborn son was his first (Cormier's daughter died in a car accident), talk about Helwani realizing what he said and feeling like a dick the rest of the interview.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/06/16/daniel-cormier-thinks-hes-a-more-complete-fighter-than-jeff-mon/

[SPX]

Me thinks Barnett is preparing for the wrong type of "fight" this weekend


That was fucking awesome.

I actually like Barnett. Steroid cheater or not, he's cool.

[edman5555]

False alarm. It is letting me bet now. I think the line was not set yet on Overeem/Werdum... because it only flagged that bet. I put in $999... But the line was only like -760 on "not overeem by submission" which I thought had a lot of value. They had Overeem by sub @ +490 and Werdum by sub @+790... so something was off.

It is letting me bet now.

sideloaded, every since you started saying that shit last week, you have me paranoid.

Don't freak out. I have been limited before as well. I am back to normal. I know how it makes you feel though. I wanted to take a crap on Tony's face.

[flyinggogoplata]

I feel better about werdum now.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVjAiLF4lDU&feature=player_embedded

[trotterz]

False alarm. It is letting me bet now. I think the line was not set yet on Overeem/Werdum... because it only flagged that bet. I put in $999... But the line was only like -760 on "not overeem by submission" which I thought had a lot of value. They had Overeem by sub @ +490 and Werdum by sub @+790... so something was off.

It is letting me bet now.

sideloaded, every since you started saying that shit last week, you have me paranoid.

On my side, I get worse odds than what I can see on bestfightodds. If on bestfightodds.com .. I see that I can get as an example Griggs for -120 on sportbet. My line will be -130 ... and it's the same for pretty much everyone. I don't understand why. It just started to do that a couple weeks ago

[MMA_scientist]

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9233/screenshotbh.png

You can arb that out now if you want. "Not Werdum by sub" is -2100 now and "Not Rogers by sub" is -8000. When I tried to get "not overeem" at -790 that was a steal.

I actually ended up just doing the parlay anyway as well, but for some reason I got a better line on Overeem than you. So we ride together on this one.

[Vandelay]

Does anyone think 5dimes will come out with props for the other main card fight? they have the distance props out, but i don't remember if they had those for the fedor vs silva card.

[trotterz]

Does anyone think 5dimes will come out with props for the other main card fight? they have the distance props out, but i don't remember if they had those for the fedor vs silva card.

I like the Griggs/Overeem won't go distance prop

-Griggs never went the distance in any of his fights
-51 of 54 overeem's fights ended in round 1. He went to the decision twice (last time was in 2003)

[flyinggogoplata]

You can arb that out now if you want. "Not Werdum by sub" is -2100 now and "Not Rogers by sub" is -8000. When I tried to get "not overeem" at -790 that was a steal.

I actually ended up just doing the parlay anyway as well, but for some reason I got a better line on Overeem than you. So we ride together on this one.

What line did you get overeem at?

[poopoo333]

I am getting nervous about Chad Griggs possibly losing now.


But he will smash Oldereem.

[SPX]

Even if Griggs wins, my opinion is that you way overbet that line. Batshit crazy bet, in my opinion.

[poopoo333]

Even if Griggs wins, my opinion is that you way overbet that line. Batshit crazy bet, in my opinion.

THAT'S BECAUSE I'M A CRAZY MOTHERFUCKER

[SPX]

Are you trying to dig out of your hole? If so, I understand. It's kind of like when I put 5u on Lyman Good to beat Chris Lozano. But if you're just being reckless or if you think that there's really that much value in Griggs, I have to disagree.

[poopoo333]

Are you trying to dig out of your hole? If so, I understand. It's kind of like when I put 5u on Lyman Good to beat Chris Lozano. But if you're just being reckless or if you think that there's really that much value in Griggs, I have to disagree.

Well I'm not too deep in the hole MMA wise but I am actually confident in Griggs. -125 is a good line imo..I think there is a lot of value. Griggs is the better can imo. BUT REALLY BRO, YOU KNOW ME FROM THE BREAK ROOM, I AM ONE CRAZY MOTHERFUCKER

reps to whoever knows what movie that is from

[MMA_scientist]

What line did you get overeem at?

-977

[MMA_scientist]

Even if Griggs wins, my opinion is that you way overbet that line. Batshit crazy bet, in my opinion.

Like running through a dynamite factory with a lit match. You may live, but you are still an idiot.


Not saying that applies to poopoo's bet, it was just a quote i read on the toilet last night and thought it applied to betting pretty well.

[MMA_scientist]

Does anyone think 5dimes will come out with props for the other main card fight? they have the distance props out, but i don't remember if they had those for the fedor vs silva card.

props are out for other fights now. I am pissed because I placed my bets thinking they were not going to release the other fights.

[flyinggogoplata]

weigh ins will be on hdnet

[flyinggogoplata]

weigh ins will be on hdnet

steam?

[flyinggogoplata]

steam?

http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/36516/1/inside-mma.html

[MMA_scientist]

^^ bol. Did you just quote yourself asking yourself for a stream?

Edman has nothing on you.

[edman5555]

what have i done that bad?

[MMA_scientist]

what have i done that bad?

nothing. Someone said you talk to yourself in threads a while back.

[edman5555]

don't let scientist talk to you like that.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Cormier by submission only -750. If these would have come out all at the same time, I could have done nicely. I considered doing a separate play for "not noons and not Cormier by submission" but since they are first, I can't really do the homespun parlay. Oh well, I guess I am just going to leave it be.

[Vandelay]

your link is useless sideloaded

[flyinggogoplata]

http://www.fightingportal.host22.com/site/

[Luke]

Like running through a dynamite factory with a lit match. You may live, but you are still an idiot.


Not saying that applies to poopoo's bet, it was just a quote i read on the toilet last night and thought it applied to betting pretty well.


what exactly do you read on the toliet?

[Luke]

Well I'm not too deep in the hole MMA wise but I am actually confident in Griggs. -125 is a good line imo..I think there is a lot of value. Griggs is the better can imo. BUT REALLY BRO, YOU KNOW ME FROM THE BREAK ROOM, I AM ONE CRAZY MOTHERFUCKER

reps to whoever knows what movie that is from

Is it the movie with the real hot blonde and the dork?

[poopoo333]

I would rep you...but your on spread

[Luke]

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324107435.jpg

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324110891.jpg

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324113670.jpg

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324114615.jpg

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324116165.jpg

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/324117968.jpg

[SPX]

So I guess Barnett was able to get all that Texas licensing bullshit cleared up. . .

[flyinggogoplata]

Overeem looks small

[Luke]

So I guess Barnett was able to get all that Texas licensing bullshit cleared up. . .

he got his license 3 days ago if I remember correctly

[flyinggogoplata]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR6Y3dHcCjc&feature=player_embedded#at=112

[Vandelay]

Golden Quote: the difference between 5 years ago and now is about 40 pounds of whoop ass!

[Mr. IWS]

Golden Quote: the difference between 5 years ago and now is about 40 pounds of whoop ass!

War Reem!

[MMA_scientist]

thinking about adding more on Werdum. Overeem is about to get dominated.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Lennon breakin out the pastels!

[Mr. IWS]

thinking about adding more on Werdum. Overeem is about to get dominated.

:burn:

[edman5555]

I don't see why Overeem gets dominated. Even the pros are picking Overeem.

[MMA_scientist]

Pros are generally no better than your average random person at picking fights.

Reasonable minds can differ. But I got Werdum here. I was thinking Overeem should be favored and Werdum COULD win by weathering the storm. But now I actually think Werdum is going to win and should be the favorite. Overeem basically has to land a killer shot and put Werdum's lights out, which has only happened one time to him, despite consistely fighting the best guys for the last several years. He hasn't had an easy fight since 2005. Werdum also beat Einemo, who is Overeem's grappling coach. Overeem has fought... nobody. His best win since losing to Werdum last time is Brett Rogers. I think maybe he really is ALL hype. Apparently Werdum has been working on his wrestling a lot... I was thinking well, Werdum has to land a submission to win. Now I am thinking, well, Overeem has to land a death blow to win. Then seeing them side by side, I always forget how big Werdum is.

[Luke]

thinking about adding more on Werdum. Overeem is about to get dominated.

I think I'd be bailing instead of adding,Werdum looks to be in worse shape than in his fight with Fedor .You're not concerned he's 8 pounds heavier ?

[flyinggogoplata]

Overeem is a can crusher, nothing more.

[Mr. IWS]

Real talk, I wouldnt be suprised if Reem fades during the 2nd half of the fight and gets tapped or loses a decision. That cat hasnt fought ANYONE over the last few years.

[MMA_scientist]

I think I'd be bailing instead of adding,Werdum looks to be in worse shape than in his fight with Fedor .You're not concerned he's 8 pounds heavier ?

not really. He weighs the exact same amount he weighed when he beat Bigfoot. Bottom line, I just think Werdum is a better fighter and will find a way to get it done.

I don't expect him to just blow through him, I was favoring Overeem maybe 55/45, now I am the other way, favoring Werdum 55/45 to get that takedown before Overeem can land the shot.

[Luke]

Overeem is a can crusher, nothing more.

Well yeah ,but remember Werdum's striking is so bad he probably couldn't crush a can if he hit it with his hardest punch . . . . . so. . . . .

[edman5555]

I didn't watch the first fight but I have heard that Overeem was in WErdums guard for a long time before getting submitted. There is a good chance that Werdum is not in line for an insta sub if this goes to the ground. Frankly I think Reem will do everything he can to keep it standing. Beyond that, I don't think Overeem is that easy to take down. Werdum has a tough road if he is looking to control him or submit him...

[poopoo333]

Scientist...go big on Werdum. I dare you.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, Overeem has a pretty good ground game. But remember that fight was in Japan... where you can actually win a fight from your back on the cards. Overeem was shooting for the takedowns and Werdum was willingly going down. Had Werdum been on top, it probably would have been significantly different. This time, I expect Werdum to be looking for a takedown and Overeem looking to sprawl. Overeem has never shown great takedown defense in the past... but it has been a while since someone tried to take him down since he has been fighting specially designated striking only cans.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist...go big on Werdum. I dare you.

I am just stating the case as I see it. Don't be offended. I just think the line is way off. I will probably be eating shit Sunday morning.

Truth be told, I am just excited because Werdum wore his gi at the weigh in.

[MMA_scientist]

bol at luke's sig, I just noticed that.

[poopoo333]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.

[MMA_scientist]

^^I'm not offended at all. I think Overeem is way overpriced and I only want him to win because he is jacked and black. And I was saying go big on Werdum because if he is +300 and you REALLY think he should be favored...that's a crazy deal


And I knew that came out from you due to the gi.


I do think it is a crazy good deal, even if I think he should be the dog, I don't think he should be that much of a dog... I mean, Werdum already beat him once, and he is coming off back to back wins over the best HW to ever live and a top 10 guy in Bigfoot. The line is just stupid. I really do want to go big because I think there is a ton of value... but I don't want to risk a lot on a fight that could really go either way IMO (even though I am still favoring Werdum, I acknowledge that Reem could easily crumble him).

[poopoo333]

Whatever, lock of the night is Griggs anyways

[flyinggogoplata]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.

[MMA_scientist]

Just look at the stone cold stats of the fight. Werdum has been stopped once. Overeem has gone 1-3 in decisions. And of his fights that have gone past the 1st round, he is 3-5. Most of Overeem's wins are actually by submission, not KO. He is probably ot going to be submitting Werdum. Overeem fades and Werdum is hard to stop. Overeem is 1-6 against bjj blackbelts, beating only Belfort, a MW. On his current win streak, he has not fought a single grappler (well Fujita, but cmon).

All that said, maybe the horsemeat really did make Overeem that much better. I just think the odds are with Werdum.

[MMA_scientist]

Well scientist kelly criterion says bet the percentage of your bankroll that's equal to your edge. Full kelly is aggressive but it's mathematically the best bank roll management system.


full kelly is bankroll suicide. I could see doing quarter kelly... but I don't bet that way. I bet more when I think the likelyhood of success is greater.

[edman5555]

i go 18.2% kelly and 2.5% martin short system.

[poopoo333]

This is out of shape Werdum:

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/307853/fabriciowerdum1.jpg