4-20-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' EARLY "BIG JUICE" ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Brewers stunned and embarrassed the Phillies yesterday. Not only did they beat them at Philadelphia, but they pounded Roy Halladay and won by a score of 9-0! This afternoon, with "Ace #2" on the mound, I expect the Phillies to respond accordingly. Cliff Lee's 2-1 record and 4.19 ERA isn't quite as dominant as we might expect. However, his 26 K's to just 2 walks (11/0 at home) and his 0.571 WHIP give a more complete picture. Lee's teams are 12-6 his last 18 home starts, including 4-0 his last four home starts as a member of the Phillies. Prior to yesterday, the Phillies had been dominating left-handed pitching. The Brewers, on the other hand, are averaging just 3.5 runs in games against southpaw starters. While Narveson has an impressive ERA overall, he's got a 4.76 ERA on the road and he had a 4.85 ERA overall last season. He allowed nine baserunners at Washington last time out (his lone road start) issuing four walks while allowing five hits. That led to him lasting just 5 2/3 innings and giving up three runs. In one career start against the Phillies, Narveson gave up four runs over 5 2/3 innings while taking the loss. After his last start Narveson commented: "I lost a little focus. You're trying so hard to get that first strike. Sometimes you aim it instead of throwing it." Not nearly as confident sounding as Lee, who coincidentally pitched at the very same venue (Washington) as Narveson, the very next day. After that start (a complete-game 3-hit shutout with 12 K's and 1 walk!) Lee was quoted as saying: "I want to throw nine innings every time I take the mound. That's that. I hope Roy does it every day before me, too, but that’s what I’m going to try to do ... I'm going to try to do that every time regardless." The Brewers are 2-4 in afternoon games. That brings them to an awful 48-69 (-23.7) in day games the past few seasons. On the other hand, the Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the afternoon bringing them to 61-43 their past 104. All things considered, with Lee off a gem and the Phillies looking to avoid the sweep, I feel the high price tag will prove to be well worth it. 6 *


Burns' 4/20 "SMOKE-OUT!"
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Underdogs have certainly gotten off to a strong start to these playoffs. However, this is one case where I expect the favorite to win by a convincing margin. Not only did they finish as the #1 seed in the West this season, the Spurs are a battle-tested team, with one of the best coaches in the game. The Spurs have also been at their very best when facing a team that beat them at San Antonio in the previous meeting. Indeed, they're an outstanding 22-10-1 ATS the last 33 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss, including 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that situation. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are 34-14 when off a SU loss as a favorite. That includes a 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) record their last 10 in that situation. While the Grizzlies are generally very tough at Memphis, they're still only 17-25 on the road. Even with the Game 1 win, they're also still only 3-10 ATS in the playoffs. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Spurs are still 14-3 the last 17 times that they were a host in this series. They're also still 36-6 here at home on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 9.6 points per game. I expect them to win by more than that tonight, evening up the series and serving notice that they won 61 games this season for good reason. 9 *

Burns' 10* O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on Denver and OKC to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 of this series finished above the total, a 107-103 Oklahoma City victory. That result has caused the O/U line to climb a few points for Game 2. I expect a lower-scoring game tonight and feel that the higher O/U line is providing excellent value. A closer look at the opening game boxscore reveals that the scoring really slowed down in the second half. The teams combined for 119 points in the first half but scored only 90 in the second half. That second half score was more in line with the recent regular season games. Prior to Game 1, the teams met twice in April and those games produced 195 and 193 combined points. With the higher O/U line, note that the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 24-15 the last 39 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. During that stretch, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go an outstanding 55-29-3 when listed as underdogs. That includes a 20-12-3 mark in the underdogs role this season. The UNDER was 4-1 when they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Thunder have been a profitable 'over' team overall, note that the UNDER is 3-2 when they've been listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Even with a few 'overs' recently, the Thunder have still seen 12 of their last 20 stay below the total. The fact that the Thunder won the first game is significant. That's because the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 20-11-2 the last 33 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. I expect those stats to improve tonight as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10 *

Burns' 10* "MAIN EVENT"
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. I didn't play the first game of this series. I felt, as most do, that the Lakers were the superior team. However, I wasn't entirely sure whether or not they'd "bring their A Game." It turned out that they didn't. Tonight, however, I expect the Hornets to have the Lakers' full attention. Normally, the Lakers would be considerd quite a "public" team. In a situation like this, where they'd lost the first game of a series, one would expect everyone and their dog to be backing the Lakers here. However, thanks to the Lakers having struggled down the stretch, many are "wary" of them here - and that has caused the line to be pretty much the same as it was for the opener. Given that the Lakers' backs are now against the wall, I feel that's offering us excellent value. Lets not forget that the Lakers are a playoff tested team - with arguably the game's best player and its best coach. Also, keep in mind that these are the defending champs and that they destroyed the Hornets during the regular season. The Lakers were 4-0 during the reg. season, most recently a commanding 18-point victory here on 3/27. Even with the Game 1 victory, note the Hornets are still just 1-5 ATS their last six playoff games. The Lakers are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times that they were trailing in a playoff series and they'e a profitable 16-9 ATS (20-5 SU) the last 25 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10*

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Burns' EARLY "BIG JUICE" ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Brewers stunned and embarrassed the Phillies yesterday. Not only did they beat them at Philadelphia, but they pounded Roy Halladay and won by a score of 9-0! This afternoon, with "Ace #2" on the mound, I expect the Phillies to respond accordingly. Cliff Lee's 2-1 record and 4.19 ERA isn't quite as dominant as we might expect. However, his 26 K's to just 2 walks (11/0 at home) and his 0.571 WHIP give a more complete picture. Lee's teams are 12-6 his last 18 home starts, including 4-0 his last four home starts as a member of the Phillies. Prior to yesterday, the Phillies had been dominating left-handed pitching. The Brewers, on the other hand, are averaging just 3.5 runs in games against southpaw starters. While Narveson has an impressive ERA overall, he's got a 4.76 ERA on the road and he had a 4.85 ERA overall last season. He allowed nine baserunners at Washington last time out (his lone road start) issuing four walks while allowing five hits. That led to him lasting just 5 2/3 innings and giving up three runs. In one career start against the Phillies, Narveson gave up four runs over 5 2/3 innings while taking the loss. After his last start Narveson commented: "I lost a little focus. You're trying so hard to get that first strike. Sometimes you aim it instead of throwing it." Not nearly as confident sounding as Lee, who coincidentally pitched at the very same venue (Washington) as Narveson, the very next day. After that start (a complete-game 3-hit shutout with 12 K's and 1 walk!) Lee was quoted as saying: "I want to throw nine innings every time I take the mound. That's that. I hope Roy does it every day before me, too, but that’s what I’m going to try to do ... I'm going to try to do that every time regardless." The Brewers are 2-4 in afternoon games. That brings them to an awful 48-69 (-23.7) in day games the past few seasons. On the other hand, the Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the afternoon bringing them to 61-43 their past 104. All things considered, with Lee off a gem and the Phillies looking to avoid the sweep, I feel the high price tag will prove to be well worth it. 6 *


Burns' 4/20 "SMOKE-OUT!"
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Underdogs have certainly gotten off to a strong start to these playoffs. However, this is one case where I expect the favorite to win by a convincing margin. Not only did they finish as the #1 seed in the West this season, the Spurs are a battle-tested team, with one of the best coaches in the game. The Spurs have also been at their very best when facing a team that beat them at San Antonio in the previous meeting. Indeed, they're an outstanding 22-10-1 ATS the last 33 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss, including 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that situation. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are 34-14 when off a SU loss as a favorite. That includes a 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) record their last 10 in that situation. While the Grizzlies are generally very tough at Memphis, they're still only 17-25 on the road. Even with the Game 1 win, they're also still only 3-10 ATS in the playoffs. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Spurs are still 14-3 the last 17 times that they were a host in this series. They're also still 36-6 here at home on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 9.6 points per game. I expect them to win by more than that tonight, evening up the series and serving notice that they won 61 games this season for good reason. 9 *

Burns' 10* O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on Denver and OKC to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 of this series finished above the total, a 107-103 Oklahoma City victory. That result has caused the O/U line to climb a few points for Game 2. I expect a lower-scoring game tonight and feel that the higher O/U line is providing excellent value. A closer look at the opening game boxscore reveals that the scoring really slowed down in the second half. The teams combined for 119 points in the first half but scored only 90 in the second half. That second half score was more in line with the recent regular season games. Prior to Game 1, the teams met twice in April and those games produced 195 and 193 combined points. With the higher O/U line, note that the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 24-15 the last 39 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. During that stretch, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go an outstanding 55-29-3 when listed as underdogs. That includes a 20-12-3 mark in the underdogs role this season. The UNDER was 4-1 when they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Thunder have been a profitable 'over' team overall, note that the UNDER is 3-2 when they've been listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Even with a few 'overs' recently, the Thunder have still seen 12 of their last 20 stay below the total. The fact that the Thunder won the first game is significant. That's because the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 20-11-2 the last 33 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. I expect those stats to improve tonight as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 10 *

Burns' 10* "MAIN EVENT"
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. I didn't play the first game of this series. I felt, as most do, that the Lakers were the superior team. However, I wasn't entirely sure whether or not they'd "bring their A Game." It turned out that they didn't. Tonight, however, I expect the Hornets to have the Lakers' full attention. Normally, the Lakers would be considerd quite a "public" team. In a situation like this, where they'd lost the first game of a series, one would expect everyone and their dog to be backing the Lakers here. However, thanks to the Lakers having struggled down the stretch, many are "wary" of them here - and that has caused the line to be pretty much the same as it was for the opener. Given that the Lakers' backs are now against the wall, I feel that's offering us excellent value. Lets not forget that the Lakers are a playoff tested team - with arguably the game's best player and its best coach. Also, keep in mind that these are the defending champs and that they destroyed the Hornets during the regular season. The Lakers were 4-0 during the reg. season, most recently a commanding 18-point victory here on 3/27. Even with the Game 1 victory, note the Hornets are still just 1-5 ATS their last six playoff games. The Lakers are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times that they were trailing in a playoff series and they'e a profitable 16-9 ATS (20-5 SU) the last 25 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10*

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness 10*



OAKLAND A's ML

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

30 DIME* NBA: Denver +5.5 over OKC
15 DIME* MLB: Texas -115 over LA Angels
Free Play: Toronto over NY Yankees