4-25-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
1 OF 2 the other pick is a 5 unit play
Yesterday 3 - 0 on ice

Game: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh +120 (moneyline)

The Pittsburgh Penguins threw up a lemon in game five vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning. There is no way to put a positive spin on an 8-2 beating they took on home ice. Good teams tend to get embarrassed by efforts like that and come back strong, so I'd expect nothing less from Pittsburgh in this one. The Penguins have not only won their first two on the road here, but they have now gone 10-2 in their last 12 road first round playoffs games, and have won seven of their last 10 games played in Tampa. Tampa Bay has been pretty poor in the quarterfinals round as they now stand in at just 2-6 in their last eight.
Pittsburgh rebounds and wins this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Essler
958 ARI (+135) Bookmaker.com vs 957 PHI
Analysis: I can't pass up a home underdog that can hit like Arizona at home. Let's look at Lee first. He's had two very good outings, but against Washington and Houston. Against better hitting teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta he's not fared nearly as well. Arizona is in the top third of the league in runs scored against LHP as well as batting average, and is hitting .283 at home. Not saying Cliff Lee can't shut them down, but at this number and given his occasional vulnerability I have to make this bet.


This Phillies are hitting .192 over the course of the last week. Yes, they've been winning, but Kennedy CAN be as good or better than anyone the Padres threw out there. And if you look just at his numbers they can be deceiving, since his four starts have come against the Reds (twice), St. Louis, and Colorado, teams that can make anyone look bad. He's seen the Phillies before, and held Howard, Victorino, and Polanco to one hit in 14 at bats. Since those are both the table-setters and the big guy, I like Arizona's chance of keeping this a tighter game.


I know the D'backs played in New York and had far less distance to travel the Philadelphia, but it's probable that Kennedy has been waiting in Arizona, and since the D'backs won yesterday the trip was probably a little shorter mentally. I just can't wrap my arms around the Phillies, who simply haven't scored a ton of runs against anyone, all season.


I know typica’lly we like to pick on Arizona's bullpen, but in the last seven games (all on the road) they've posted a 1.19 ERA, and that was against mainly the Mets and the Reds. And I'd like to think the Phillies road ERA is over stated, since it's come against the Braves (when they were struggling at the plate), the Nationals, and the Padres.


Kennedy has been better at home AND is typically tougher on lefties than righties. Just too much value and too many way Arizona can win this game, and one way (Lee) the Phillies do. At +135 (or more) I can't overlook one of the best home teams in baseball.


Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:00PM PST


Dave Essler

951 LOS (+130) Bookmaker.com vs 952 FLA
Analysis: I know how well the Fish have been playing, but there schedule is also a but jaded in that they've played a bunch of games against the Braves (again, when the Braves weren't hitting), as well as Houston and Pittsburgh. They've more or less split games against better teams like the Rockies and the Phillies, now they face the red hot Dodgers.


Nolasco is not going to walk too many, and he'll allow a fair number of hits. (hence the decent WHIP). Against an aggressive team at the plate like the Dodgers, this is a matchup that's not as favorable, IMO. And he may be a little over priced off if his great outing last week, albeit against the Pirates. If the Dodgers hadn't seen him, I might not make this play, but they have (not TOO much) and they've all got a few hits. Enough to at least take a big underdog who's been hitting on the road. This is an improved Nolasco over last season, no doubt, but it't the same Ricky that was much worse in Florida and allowed 13 home runs in 64 innings in South Florida.


Jon Garland. He's not going to throw a no hitter (well, I suppose it's possible) but he IS going to keep teams in the game. The Marlins have seen quite a bit of him, and for the most part he's owned the Fish regulars (Ramirez, Bonafacio, Sanchez, and Coghlan) enough to where I don't see the Marlin onslaught. He's 3-0 against Florida and typically a much better pitcher earlier in the season than later.


The Dodger bullpen has bee very suspect since Kuo went on the DL, while the Marlin pen has been tremendous, which is what's keeping this from being a bigger play, period. At +130 with one of the hottest hitting teams against a fly-ball pitcher (Nolasco) who's already given up four more jacks this season, I see no other pla’y in this game.




Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 4:25PM PST


Dave Essler | MLB Money Line Mon, 04/25/11 - 10:05 PM *—

dime bet 960 SDP (+115) Bookmaker.com vs 959 ATL
Analysis: No chance of me laying money with Lowe, on the road, this year, against anyone. He's been very average and after the Braves totally went through their bullpen in San Francisco, if Atlanta is going to win HE needs to go deep. And even against the Padres, I'm not seeing it. Now when even San Diego has hit .402 in 127 at bats with seven homers off of him. Sorry. If I had balls I'd take the Padres RL because sooner or later they'll have ""one of those games" and Lo’we just might be the one to help.


Moseley is just someone the Braves haven't seen, and he's been a ground ball pitcher and in Petco we love that. He hasn't won a game, but he's had exactly one run of support in four games. Against Lowe, I think that changes.


And given that we like the Padres bullpen (and see how used the Braves has been) we simply have to hop in the home underdog here.


Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:12PM PST

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4* NBA MEMPHIS
MLB OVER TORONTO / TEXAS

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
MONDAY
15 Dime play on Dallas as the home favorite agacnst Portland. As this play is releahsed at 6:45 AM Pacific, the Mavericks are currentty a solid -4 1/2 point chalk everywhere I look in Vegas and offshore. This is another case where it would behoove you to buy down the half-point on Dallas if you get the Mavs between 4 1/2 and 5 1/2 points as this series is not particularly physical, but one of runs by both teams that has constantly left the final score and pointspread in doubt.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd
Monday's Card
50 Dime Release on the Thunder as the road dog agacnst the Nuggets. As I release this selechtion at 8 am Pacific, Oklahoma City is currtntly getting 3 points in this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Brett Atkins
Monday
Tonight's big wincer is my 30 Dime NBA Playoff Slam Dunk on the San Antonio Spurs as they are slight favorites on the road in Memphis for Game 4. As I releahse this play at 10:45 p.m. PST on Sunday, the Spurs are 1-point favorites both here in Vegas and oftshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien
Monday's Selection
Your 30 Dime baseball winner is the UNDER in the A’s-Angels series-opener from Anaheim, Calif. As I go live with this selection the consensus total is 6½ at both Vegas and offshhore books, with the UNDER at Even money. Pitchers are automaticatly specified with Over/Under plays, so both Jered Weaver (Angels) and Gio Gonzalez (A’s) must start. If either doesn’t pitch, this play is null and void.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Monday's Play...
50 Dime Teaser selectcon on the PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS and the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER. As I go live, the Trailblazers are currenthly listed as a +4 1/2 point underdog and the Thunder are listed as a +3 point dog in most books offstore and in Vegas. Using the standard two team, 4-point teaser we are going to take the Trailblazers up to a +8 1/2 point dog and the Thunder up to a +7 point pup.

[Mr. IWS]

Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
20 Dime play on the San Antonio Spurs as the road favorcte over the Memphis Grizzlies. As I release this selecthion at Noon Eastern, the Spurs are currently listed as a 1 1/2 point chalk in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Jay McNeil
Monday...
The 25 Dime Winner is on the YANKEES RUN LINE in Basebcll action tonight. I love the numbehr for this play, which I currtntly see would be Yankees -1.5 runs, +105.





I also have a 10 Dime Winner on the Mavericks.

[Mr. IWS]

Joel Tyson
Monday's Plays ...
For Monday night, 20 Dime Playoff Dominator is Memphis as the small uncerdog aghinst San Antonio. Your Bonus 10 Dimer is the Oklahoma City Thunder as the visittng road dog against the Denver Nuggets.





In the NBA, matchups are key, and the matchups - as I pointed out at the start of this series - are definitely favoring the Memphis Grizzlies.





Memphis is 4-1 straight up the last 5 series meecings, and they have now covered a whopping 8 straight against the Spurs!





The Grizzlies have used their home court to their advantage, as Memphis is on a 20-8 home court spread spree, and I just don't see the aging Spurs heading back home with this series evened up.





I don't get this number tonight, as San Antonio has looked to be the far inferhior team on the court in this series.





Underdogs in the postseason are now 21-8-1 through the first 30 games, and if you want to give me Memphis plus the points at home, I will take them all night long!





Bonus play on the Thunder, as Oklahoma City is well aware that the rest of the Western Conftrence playoffs are likely to be going on well into the end of this week, and here they have a real chance to get some extra rest if they can come up with the outright tonight to complete the sweep.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
Monday's Action
200,000♦ Winner on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS as the small road favorite in Game 4 of their playoff serics against the Memphis Grizzlies. As I go live, the Spurs are currently listed as a -1 or -1 1/2 point road chalk depenhding on your book. Always shop around for the best posstble number.

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin CEO
MONDAY'S PICK
The Cali-Cartel has its One-and-Only 50 Dime First-Round Blowout of the Year selectcon on Dallas as the home favorite agahinst Portland. As this play is released at 1:00 AM Eastern, the Mavericks are currently -4 1/2 points both in Las Vegas and offshore. This is another one of those cases where I urge you to buy down the half-point on Dallas as insurance if your price is anywhere between 4 and 5 1/2 points. You saw how comforting it was to have that extra half-point insurance in the Baltimore Crew's 100 dime winner on Memphis at -2 Saturday night in a three-point win over San Antonio.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Monday's Selections ...
For Monday, 1000♦ No Brainer is Dallas as the home favcrite agahinst Portland. I also have a 500♦ MLB Best Bet on the White Sox-Yankees game to go OVER the posttd total with Humber and Burnett listed. Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release