4-27-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 7

Game: Philadelphia at Arizona (3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -155 (moneyline)

We haven't taken many favorites this season but I like Philadelphia in this spot. Arizona hasn't swept the Phillies at home in 11 years. They have to get through Cole Hamels to accomplish that feat and I don't see it happening. Not with Joe Saunders opposing. Philly's starting pitching has been sick this year but what has gone unnoticed is how well their bullpen is finishing games. The Phils bullpen owns a 2.31 ERA overall including 1.38 on the road. Arizona's pen has been average at best and that spells trouble. Philadelphia is 40-19 since last season vs. bullpens with a 3.75 to 4.50 ERA. Arizona is just 15-41 over that span vs. an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better (Hamels is at 2.92). The Phillies have been a great road team the past few seasons, going 108-77 overall the past three seasons.
Take Hamels and the Phillies here.

[Mr. IWS]

Sean Higgs

Free Play
LAA Angels -160
Coming off a SWEEP in MLB last night cashing our Top 10* on the Giants. MLB continues to turn infield dirt into cash money $ For WINSday, NBA and NHL Playoff action. Plus a Day-Night MLB Double header $ Your FREE MONEY tonight will be on the ANGELS. Taking Haren here. The guy is lights out and after a tough loss to the Sox, I expect to mow down a weak hitting Oakland lineup. Halos should muster a run or 2 here. FREE MONEY on Haren and the ANGELS $ Higgs

4* Cincinnati Reds + 142
Taking the Reds here. LeClure gave up 5 his last game out vs the D-backs. But in his 2 starts before that, he gave up 3 earned on 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 14 in a pair of NDs. Now Gallardo hasn't fared well vs the Reds going 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA while the Brewers are 2-7 in his starts. Reds 8-3 last 11 in the series and Brewers are 0-5 in Gallardo's last 5 starts vs Cincy. 4* REDS

4* Over Boston/Baltimore 8.0/-120
Going OVER the total down in Baltimore. Think the Sox bats really come to life here tonight. The Orioles just 2-12 last 14 with Guthrie on the hill vs Boston. Career vs Boston Guthrie is 1-7 with a 4.95 ERA. The O's do get to Beckett as the Sox are just 9-5 when he starts vs Baltimore. Sox now with a day back in their normal time zone, should really have some good bat work tonight. runs runs runs.. 4* OVER Red Sox/Orioles

4* UNDER Montreal/Boston 5.0/-109
Going UNDER the total here in Game 7. All about defense as 2 men enter, 1 man leaves. 4*UNDER Montreal/Boston

4* UNDER Lightening/Penguins 5.0/130
Going UNDER the total here. Game 7. Just like the other games. Defense, defense defense. 4* UNDER Lightening/Penguins

4* Under 76ers/Heat 186.0/-110
Going UNDER the total in Miami. If Philly has any shot to extend the series, they must D-up. 5 of the last 7 have gone under in the series. Philly has gone under 9 of their last 10. Heat under 6 of their last 7. 4* UNDER Philly/Miami


4* Under Grizzlies/Spurs 189.0/-108
Going UNDER here in San Antonio. Spurs up against it here. Look for a strong defensive effort as they look to extend the series. SA is a veteran bunch and will get back to basics here. 4* UNDER Grizzlies/Spurs


4* UNDER Nuggets/Thunder 204.5/-110
Going UNDER in Okalahoma City. Another UNDER as Denver's also shot will be to keep this Thunder team under raps. Nuggets can't run with this bunch. Back to the wall. Pressure. Missed shots and defense. 4* UNDER Nuggets/Thunder

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NBA)
1 OF 3
Game: Memphis at San Antonio (8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 189 -110

At this point it seems nearly inevitable that we will see a number 1 seed fall to a number 8 seed. If we do, it will be just the second time in NBA history that this has happened in a best-of-seven series. Memphis has come out with no fear and has taken a 3-1 lead in the series. Two of the games have gone OVER and two UNDER. This one I see sailing over 189 points. When the series opened in this building ten days ago, the fair total was set at 196 (and that game went OVER). So the same teams, playing in the same building, now face a total with 7 full points shaved off. That's not right. The Spurs are 48-38 OVER in all games on the season and 28-19 OVER following a game that went OVER. They are also 39-19 OVER the past three seasons revenging a loss. Under Gregg Popovich, this team is 94-67 OVER following a double-digit loss. Versus winning teams this season, Memphis is 28-18 OVER.
Take the OVER here.