5-4-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

20* Lakers Under 187.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Rickenbach
10* Slugfest - Tigers over

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* HOUSTON/CINCINNATI OVER

3* HOUSTON over CINCINNATI

A team with a losing record, and trending downwards, and a starting pitcher with a 1-3/6.82 bottom line, and trending downwards, is sitting in a -200 range. The rarity of such a setting gets us into play, and this particular sequence gives us the best chance to take advantage – if the Astros get to four runs we are without jeopardy, and given the form of Travis Wood that is not asking much at all.

Wood jumped out to a 4-1/2.51 LY, which was beyond his abilities, but also what can happen to a small but crafty left-hander against hitters getting their first look at his delivery. But now he has been around the league and the scouting reports are out, and over his last 14 starts it has been a 2-6/6.00. That will have his confidence level at a low ebb, especially with his last two starts from this mound being disasters, outings vs. the Pirates and Marlins in which he could not finish the fourth inning either time. His fly-ball rates are among the highest of any starter in the Major Leagues, which makes the Great American Ball Park a bad fit, and with a 6.00 tally here so far in his career, there is jut no way to push him out to either this Side, or Total, projection.

The Astros are swinging the bats well enough to take advantage. They have scored 52 runs over their last 10 games, and there may not be anyone hotter right now than Brett Wallace, who has had multiple hits seven times in the last nine games, including a HR last night. We will put our focus on them getting the job done offensively, instead of having to trust Aneury Rodriguez, who has not thrown more than 36 pitches in any of his relief appearances, and may struggle after the first pass through the Cincinnati lineup. With the firm prospect that both bullpens will be in play from the middle of the game on there are plenty of chances for big innings, creating a game in which we have both a live underdog, and a Total that literally could be Over early.

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* HOUSTON/CINCINNATI OVER

3* HOUSTON over CINCINNATI

A team with a losing record, and trending downwards, and a starting pitcher with a 1-3/6.82 bottom line, and trending downwards, is sitting in a -200 range. The rarity of such a setting gets us into play, and this particular sequence gives us the best chance to take advantage – if the Astros get to four runs we are without jeopardy, and given the form of Travis Wood that is not asking much at all.

Wood jumped out to a 4-1/2.51 LY, which was beyond his abilities, but also what can happen to a small but crafty left-hander against hitters getting their first look at his delivery. But now he has been around the league and the scouting reports are out, and over his last 14 starts it has been a 2-6/6.00. That will have his confidence level at a low ebb, especially with his last two starts from this mound being disasters, outings vs. the Pirates and Marlins in which he could not finish the fourth inning either time. His fly-ball rates are among the highest of any starter in the Major Leagues, which makes the Great American Ball Park a bad fit, and with a 6.00 tally here so far in his career, there is jut no way to push him out to either this Side, or Total, projection.

The Astros are swinging the bats well enough to take advantage. They have scored 52 runs over their last 10 games, and there may not be anyone hotter right now than Brett Wallace, who has had multiple hits seven times in the last nine games, including a HR last night. We will put our focus on them getting the job done offensively, instead of having to trust Aneury Rodriguez, who has not thrown more than 36 pitches in any of his relief appearances, and may struggle after the first pass through the Cincinnati lineup. With the firm prospect that both bullpens will be in play from the middle of the game on there are plenty of chances for big innings, creating a game in which we have both a live underdog, and a Total that literally could be Over early.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NBA)
Yesterday 2 - 0
1 OF 2

Game: Atlanta at Chicago (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 179.5 -110

The Chicago Bulls were caught off guard in game one and the Atlanta Hawks seem to shred the Bulls defense for a lot of easy looks. I expect Chicago to make some adjustments here for game two, but I still see Atlanta finding looks here. Chicago was very proficient inside and ended the game with 48 points in the paint and another 18 on the break. I look for them to continue to pound inside and, with both teams getting good looks, I expect this low total is going to be in jeopardy. The Hawks are now at 5-2 to the OVER in their last seven as a dog from 5-10.5 and, this series, as defensive as it may look on paper, has seen nine of the last 12 top the total, including five of the last six in Chicago.
I am on the OVER here

[Mr. IWS]

TEDDY COVERS

Bulls -8.5
Detroit Tigers ML

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4 UNIT* NBA* Chicago Bulls

[Mr. IWS]

Docs al goy---texas

[Mr. IWS]

6* Sharks/Red Wings OVER 5.5

IC

[Mr. IWS]

ER Sports
20* Nationals +135

[Mr. IWS]

A. Redd

100 dime on the Hawks.