Bellator 45

[poopoo333]

MAIN CARD


Patricio Freire vs. Daniel Straus (featherweight-tourney finale)
Richard Hale vs. Christian M'Pumbu (light-heavyweight tourney finale)
Sam Alvey vs. Karl Amoussou
Derek Lewis vs. Thiago Santos

PRELIMINARY CARD

Nicolae Cury vs. Luis "Sapo" Santos*
Shawn Jordan vs. TBA

[Vandelay]

I might be betting straus here. Im sure he will come in as a decent sized dog (plus 150 or higher) and I think he can grind out a win.

[edman5555]

Pitbull is pretty nasty. I wouldn't bet against him.

[Vandelay]

The lone wrestler he faced was Joe Warren and he lost that fight. And I dont even think Warren has good MMA wrestling. I'm just saying Freire hasnt really faced good wrestlers and his line will probably be inflated.

[Ludo]

But at the same time Chandler isn't near the Wrestler Warren is. He's every bit the grinder but not quite the wrestler.

[SPX]

Maybe not on paper, but he has at least looked as effective in actual practice for the most part.

[Vandelay]

But at the same time Chandler isn't near the Wrestler Warren is. He's every bit the grinder but not quite the wrestler.

Is that supposed to be a joke? Chandler has clearly adapted his wrestling better and its not even close. Warren probably gets stuffed on more than 50 percent of his takedowns.

[edman5555]

Daniel Strauss looks to be pretty good. It's not crazy to think he will win but Pitbull is very dangerous. Good striking and BJJ. Warren is a nasty wrestler with a lot of good wins and he almost lost to Pitbull.

[Vandelay]

Warren is not a top wrestler in mma. His past three fights he has really struggled with his takedowns. Two were against bjj guys and the third was a striker/wrestler who warren had better credentials then. I put Warren on par with like an Aaron simpson or mayb mark munoz. Both guys should be pretty damn good wrestlers, but for some reason they dont transition to takedowns well. I view guys like gray maynard, gsp, chael sonnen, rashad evans, and cain velasquez to have adapted their wrestling to mma the best even if their credentials arent as good as some other guys...I havent seen enough of patricio freire's fights to gauge how good his tdd is so I will have to research it before I make a bet.

[poopoo333]

Vandelay if you fight Pitbull/Warren in your research will you post it?

[Vandelay]

http://www.mmageeks.co.cc/2011/01/patricio-freire-vs-joe-warren-fight.html

[Ludo]

Is that supposed to be a joke? Chandler has clearly adapted his wrestling better and its not even close. Warren probably gets stuffed on more than 50 percent of his takedowns.

You do know that Warren is a Greco Roman wrestler, right? His shot isn't going to be stellar and few greco guys have excellent shots but they are very good in the clinch. Also while his takedowns may not be successful early on there is no arguing with the 2nd and 3rd rounds. He seems to drain guys in the first with those takedown attempts and then has little problem snagging one in the later rounds. So no, it wasn't a joke to say Chandler isn't near the wrestler as Warren is.

[Vandelay]

Even when he does get the clinch. He doesn't dominate. He got taken down by both pitbull and galvao when he initiated the clinch which shouldn't happen. Not sure how many times Hendo or Couture have been taken down while clinched up, but its not many. His pace is probably his best attribute followed closely by his chin. Some of you are way too hung up on accomplishments in other sports, but this is getting off topic and I'd rather get opinions on Bellator 45.

[poopoo333]

But at the same time Chandler isn't near the Wrestler Warren is. He's every bit the grinder but not quite the wrestler.

You know we are talking about Patricio and not Patricky?

[poopoo333]

http://www.mmageeks.co.cc/2011/01/patricio-freire-vs-joe-warren-fight.html

Thanks

[Vandelay]

Any opinion on the strauss fight or Warrens wrestling?

[MMA_scientist]

Patricio is going to win IMO, unless Strauss suprises us with his standup like Chandler did. Friere has good takedown defense and I don't think Strauss will be taking him down in the first half of the fight. But Strauss is a lot longer than Patricio, so he could definitely find a way to get it done standing and maybe a takedown or 2 in the second half of the fight.

Warren is probably the very best wrestler in all of MMA, credential wise. I think he uses it pretty well, not the best, but pretty well. I mean he gets stuffed some, but he is beating guys that are way more skilled and younger than him... he is clearly fighting over his head and somehow pulling it off. The other factor is that the guys are FW/BW. It is alot harder to hold guys down at those smaller weights IMO. Just like doing pullups are easier for lighter guys, the strength to weight ratio is just different and they don't get as tired so they are able to stand up a lot better. You don't see a lot of dominant wrestling from the smaller guys... you got Mendes and that is really the only guy I can think of that wins via blanket other than Warren. Still, Patricio is going to finish the job on Warren this time.

[edman5555]

34 is too old now?

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/398.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

Pitbull opens @-145

[MMA_scientist]

Looked at all of these fights, don't see anything bettable.

Going to sit it out unless something changes on the Pitbull/Straus line. I think Straus could win that, but I am not taking him at that line, maybe if he comes up some. I would take Friere if he comes down as well.

[SPX]

I'm actually surprised Freire hasn't hit -200 already.

[MMA_scientist]

Well the line is only open at one book, but it has come back down a little. It is in no man's land right now, I want it to move one way or the other.

[SPX]

So at what point do you think either guy has value?

[MMA_scientist]

I would probably take Straus @ +190 ish and Friere at -120 or so. I really think the fight could go either way, but there is no way that Straus will finish Friere, so he really only has one out, and I think Friere is just as likely to win a decision and could also KO or submit him. I need close to 2:1 on Straus for that reason. But I am not confident enough that Friere will win to pay a big price on him.

[SPX]

I was thinking I might take Freire at -135, but I'd have to go back and watch some tape on both guys before I bet it.

[trotterz]

I would probably take Straus @ +190 ish and Friere at -120 or so. I really think the fight could go either way, but there is no way that Straus will finish Friere, so he really only has one out, and I think Friere is just as likely to win a decision and could also KO or submit him. I need close to 2:1 on Straus for that reason. But I am not confident enough that Friere will win to pay a big price on him.

I'm with you and that.
I will probably put money on Freire and also put money on straus by decision. That is his only path to victory

[MMA_scientist]

I'm with you and that.
I will probably put money on Freire and also put money on straus by decision. That is his only path to victory

They rarely offer props on Bellator fights at my books. Of there were props, it would be a much easier bet for me.

[MMA_scientist]

Friere down to -130 on 5d. Thinking about a small play now... hoping it will come down a little more.

[sbjj]

Pumbu is gold at + money.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ I looked at that fight... M'Pumbo looked better in his last fight than Hale did. But what is holding me back is that Hale is probably going to come to grapple, and I don't know about M'Pumbo's TD defense or grappling ability. Hale had Linderman mounted quickly when he finally decided to grapple in round 3, and he pulled off that inverted triangle... M'Pumbu went for some submissions in his first fight but he did get taked down in the second and lost the first round on his back. He did stuff Davis's shots in that fight in the 3rd round.

The best I can get him for is -110 though... I would consider either man at + odds.

[poopoo333]

^^agree with everything Billy Pilgrim just said. The only thing I can base M'Pumbo's TD defense/grappling ability is from the Davis fight.

[poopoo333]

M'pumbu weighed in at 199. He should be a middleweight.

[poopoo333]

Somebody find a stream

[Vandelay]

http://www.jmorganmarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/stream-of-information1.jpg

[Vandelay]

http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/32906/1/bellator-fighting-championships-45-:-light-heavyweight-tournament-final.html

[Luke]

http://www.jmorganmarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/stream-of-information1.jpg


::lmao::::lmao::

[poopoo333]

http://www.strmr.tv/share.php?chname=newchannel2

[Vandelay]

id be really surprised if friere loses a decision here. I had it 30 27 for freire

[Vandelay]

Freire definitely won rd 3. rds 1 and 2 were close.

[Vandelay]

Freire wins. Sets up the grudge match.

[Vandelay]

surprised he was able to bounce back from that

[poopoo333]

Sweet, just flipped on MTV2 to see the main event replay. How was the Pitbull fight? I was out all night and the streams weren't being too great on my phone so I missed it.

[poopoo333]

btw, I am hating myself for not betting M'Pumbu. Hale's size advantage/possible grappling advantage made me puss out.