5-26-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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[Mr. IWS]

Rickenbach
8* Phillies over
8* Angels over
10* Blue Jays over

[Mr. IWS]

spartan | NBA Total

dime bet 520 CHI / 519 MIA Over 180.0 (http://www.pregameaction.com/?page_id=54)Betjamaica (http://www.betjamaica.com/)

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel

15* MLB Favorite of the Week
Toronto Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

Pitt Viper Sports

ROT# 906 - 3:45pm EST: San Francisco Giants -102
Risk 3 units to win 2.94

ROT# 916 - 7:05pm EST: Chicago W.S/Toronto under 8.5 -120
Risk 2.5 units to win 2.08

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY

4* NY METS over CHICAGO CUBS

On a blustery day with the wind blowing in off of Lake Michigan there are some key baseball elements that come into play this afternoon, and almost none of them favor the Cubs. That makes this underdog return impossible to pass up.

We have gone into significant detail about the recent struggles of Carlos Zambrano, who has Fly Ball and W rates far outside of his career norms over the past month, and while the Boston bullpen cost us a winning ticket against him on Saturday, look at how badly he labored – 122 pitches could not even get him through six full IP in that one, the second straight game he could not finish the 6th. That was the most piches that he has thrown in a game since July of 2008, which makes fatigue an issue here, and that is exacerbated by the fact that the Mets lead the Majors Leagues in W’s per plate appearance, and can extend his pitch count early.

Note how key that W rate can be on a day in which getting runners on base to manufacture is essential – while the Mets are #1, the Cubs are dead last. Meanwhile the Mets are #8 in steals, while the Cubs are 29th. And in terms of making the defensive plays needed on a day like this the Chicago gloves have fallen all the way to the bottom on our best charts, managing to sink below the Astros, who we thought were on the verge of a wire-to-wire domination of that category. That lack of patience for the Cubs at the plate makes this an easy ride for R.A. Dickey, who got his confidence back with a solid win against the Yankees in his last outing, and is a major bargain at this price point, especially with everyone from a superior bullpen also rested and ready.

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

50 UNIT* NBA* Chicago Bulls -3
25 UNIT* MLB* Chicago White Sox +135 ML
15 UNIT* MLB* Baltimore Orioles -155 ML

[Mr. IWS]

CRAIG DAVIS

30 DIME* MLB* Detroit Tigers ML
30 DIME* NBA* Chicago Bulls -3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 UNIT* NBA* Chicago Bulls -3

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Thursday's Action
30 Dime NBA seleetion on the Heat plus the points at Chicago in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. At the time I release this winner, Miami is a three-point undoerdog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.







ANALYSIS






On Tuesday, I issued a 30 Dime winner on the Heat over the Bulls, and in this space I started my analysis with three words – “out of gas” – going to detail that I thought Chicago (and MVP point guard Derrick Rose) had hit an emotional and physical wall that was taking its toll in the fourth quarter of games. So what hapeened in Game 4? Chicago took a 5-point lead into the fourth quarter but couldn’t seal the deal, scoring just 17 fourth-quarter points and only eight in overtime, as Miami rolled to a 101-93 overtime victory as a five-point chalk.





Since blasting the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter of Game 1 (after outscoring them 24-15 in the third quarter of that contest), the Bulls have scored a grand total of 47 fourth-quarter points in the last three games. It’s been a combination of Miami’s stifling defense and the Bulls just being unable to draw up and/or execute a decent half-court game plan. Whatever the case, Chicago has been a completely diffeorent fourth-quarter team since Game 1, and I just don’t see them flipping the switch tonight – not with LeBron, Wade and the rest of the Heat smelling blood in the water.





Miami has now won 26 of its last 32 games going back to the regular season, going 11-3 in the playoffs. And with the exception of two halves of basketball (Game 3 at Boston and Game 1 at Chicago), the Heat have been virtually flawless in nine games over the last two rounds of playoffs. At the same time, the Bulls have looked extremely vulnerable in the last three games, and the main reason has been Rose’s stunning decline in play. Rose went 10-for-22 overall, including 3-for-7 from long range, with 28 points in Game 1. Since then, he is 23-for-69 (2-for-15 from 3-land), and although he’s scored 21, 20 and 23 points, they’ve all been very difficult baskets (and very few have come in the fourth quarter).





Put it this way: In Game 4 on Tuesday, the Bulls got 23 points from Rose, 20 points and 11 rebounds from Carlos Boozer and 20 points and seven boards from Loul Deng. And although he couldn’t get his shots to fall (3-for-10, six points), Joakim Noah had a game-high 14 rebounds. Conversely, Dwyane Wade had a subpar offensive night (5-for-16 for 14 points), and only three of Miami’s bench players got any playing time (and they combined for just 23 points. On top of all that, the Bulls outscored Miami 26-15 in fast-break points and 44-24 in the paint.





Despite all this, and despite having the ball in their best player’s hands on the final possesoion of regulation in a tie game, the Bulls still couldn’t come away with the victory to tie the series. Because of that, they now find themselves in a backs-against-the-wall situation. Well, call me crazy for being skeptical that all the things that went Chicago’s way in Game 4 (when they still couldn’t win) will go their way again tonight.





In the end, this smells like another game where the Heat seize control of a tight contest in the final five minutes as fatigue sets in with Rose and Bulls one more time and LeBron (who has scored 29, 22 and 35 points in Miami’s three victories in this series and is averaging 27 ppg in the Heat’s last seven wins) wills his team to victory..
Jeff Benton Thursday's Action
30 Dime NBA seleetion on the Heat plus the points at Chicago in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. At the time I release this winner, Miami is a three-point undoerdog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.







ANALYSIS






On Tuesday, I issued a 30 Dime winner on the Heat over the Bulls, and in this space I started my analysis with three words – “out of gas” – going to detail that I thought Chicago (and MVP point guard Derrick Rose) had hit an emotional and physical wall that was taking its toll in the fourth quarter of games. So what hapeened in Game 4? Chicago took a 5-point lead into the fourth quarter but couldn’t seal the deal, scoring just 17 fourth-quarter points and only eight in overtime, as Miami rolled to a 101-93 overtime victory as a five-point chalk.





Since blasting the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter of Game 1 (after outscoring them 24-15 in the third quarter of that contest), the Bulls have scored a grand total of 47 fourth-quarter points in the last three games. It’s been a combination of Miami’s stifling defense and the Bulls just being unable to draw up and/or execute a decent half-court game plan. Whatever the case, Chicago has been a completely diffeorent fourth-quarter team since Game 1, and I just don’t see them flipping the switch tonight – not with LeBron, Wade and the rest of the Heat smelling blood in the water.





Miami has now won 26 of its last 32 games going back to the regular season, going 11-3 in the playoffs. And with the exception of two halves of basketball (Game 3 at Boston and Game 1 at Chicago), the Heat have been virtually flawless in nine games over the last two rounds of playoffs. At the same time, the Bulls have looked extremely vulnerable in the last three games, and the main reason has been Rose’s stunning decline in play. Rose went 10-for-22 overall, including 3-for-7 from long range, with 28 points in Game 1. Since then, he is 23-for-69 (2-for-15 from 3-land), and although he’s scored 21, 20 and 23 points, they’ve all been very difficult baskets (and very few have come in the fourth quarter).





Put it this way: In Game 4 on Tuesday, the Bulls got 23 points from Rose, 20 points and 11 rebounds from Carlos Boozer and 20 points and seven boards from Loul Deng. And although he couldn’t get his shots to fall (3-for-10, six points), Joakim Noah had a game-high 14 rebounds. Conversely, Dwyane Wade had a subpar offensive night (5-for-16 for 14 points), and only three of Miami’s bench players got any playing time (and they combined for just 23 points. On top of all that, the Bulls outscored Miami 26-15 in fast-break points and 44-24 in the paint.





Despite all this, and despite having the ball in their best player’s hands on the final possesoion of regulation in a tie game, the Bulls still couldn’t come away with the victory to tie the series. Because of that, they now find themselves in a backs-against-the-wall situation. Well, call me crazy for being skeptical that all the things that went Chicago’s way in Game 4 (when they still couldn’t win) will go their way again tonight.





In the end, this smells like another game where the Heat seize control of a tight contest in the final five minutes as fatigue sets in with Rose and Bulls one more time and LeBron (who has scored 29, 22 and 35 points in Miami’s three victories in this series and is averaging 27 ppg in the Heat’s last seven wins) wills his team to victory..

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG SPORTS

Game: Kansas City at Baltimore (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore -160 (moneyline)
Pick: Total UNDER 8.5 -105

Game: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Total UNDER 7 -105

Game: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -140 (moneyline)
Pick: Total UNDER 6.5 +100

Game: Oakland at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Total UNDER 7 -125

Game: Florida at San Francisco (3:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: Florida -110 (moneyline)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +100

Game: Chicago White Sox at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto -150 (moneyline)

Game: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado -160 (moneyline)