UFC 136

[poopoo333]

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann*
Dave Herman vs. Mike Russow
Josh Grispi vs. Matt Grice

[SPX]

All fucking in on Grispi. His odds will have to be SHITTY for me not to bet him.

[edman5555]

I may do the same. Though I was super confident he would beat roop last time and that didn't turn out well for me.

[SPX]

I think that has more to do with underestimating Roop than overestimating Grispi.

But Grice sucks. He's 1-4 in the UFC with his sole win coming over Jason Black, and in every loss he was finished in the first round. This fight was designed to get Grispi a win, plain and simple, and no matter where the fight goes Grispi should be better.

[Luke]

Demian Maia meets Jorge Santiago at UFC 136 http://bit.ly/mVRQwV (http://bit.ly/mVRQwV)

[AC88]

I'll take Maia at anything better than -275

[MMA_scientist]

Finally, Maia gets a favorable matchup. That is still a tough fight for Maia though, Santiago is no joke on the ground either. But Maia should be able to take him down whenever he wants.

[Luke]

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard Headlines UFC 136 - http://5thRound.com/4fb (http://5thround.com/4fb)

[SPX]

inb4Maynardbreaksahip

[poopoo333]

I was hoping they would announce that.

[poopoo333]

With the injuries and stuff do you guys think the line will be any different than the line that was set for UFC 130?

[SPX]

Probably not considering they were both hurt and both have been away from the cage for the same amount of time. Seems like a wash to me.

[Ludo]

I hope not. I was ready to make money on Edgar.

[poopoo333]

Yeah if it is like -130 again that's gonna be a 5u bet for me

[poopoo333]

Lauzon/Guillard added

[Ludo]

Yeah if it is like -130 again that's gonna be a 5u bet for me

I'll put more on it this time around than last time if it's -130 again.

[poopoo333]

Florian/aldo added

[SPX]

I'll put more on it this time around than last time if it's -130 again.


Yeah if it is like -130 again that's gonna be a 5u bet for me


Why would you be any more confident now than last time? What's changed?

[poopoo333]

I had 5u on him for the fight @ UFC 130

[SPX]

Lauzon/Guillard added

Lauzon can't stand with Guillard and Guillard's TDD should be enough to keep this on the feet.

I'll take Guillard up to -300.

[Ludo]

The fact that Maynard blew his knee out is what makes Me more confident. He didn't have a lot of success taking Edgar down in the last fight while Edgar took him down a few times, if his knee isn't as strong now as it was then his shot suffers. Without a shot his chances of winning drop even more.

[poopoo333]

I'm not sure about the severity of Maynard's knee injury. He refers to his surgery as a "minor scope". Frankie Edgar had bulging discs in his back and broken ribs

[edman5555]

Lauzon can't stand with Guillard and Guillard's TDD should be enough to keep this on the feet.

I'll take Guillard up to -300.

I'll be on Guillard by TKO. Sorry but I think he is going to eat that kid up alive.

[Luke]

I'm not sure about the severity of Maynard's knee injury. He refers to his surgery as a "minor scope". Frankie Edgar had bulging discs in his back and broken ribs

A bulging disk is a worse injury than a minor scope imo, backs fck up everything training wise

[Luke]

My question is when did Maynard's and Edgar's injuries occur?

Did Maynard have a bad knee going into the last fight ,did it happen because of the fight, or did it happen in training?

I've heard Edgar has had back problems for a while

[Thewisemann]

Lauzon is very aggressive with his takedowns and sub attempts, he could definatly catch him, that said, odds permitting, ill bet both, Guillard TKO/KO AND Lauzon sub

[edman5555]

i think lauzon will have trouble taking down guillard. a lot of trouble. I dont think he is a phenom wrestler and even if he gets him down it isn't insta sub. I think Guillard will be able to throw him off of himself. On the feet, its murder.

[edman5555]

joe does have some nice sub wins though. He is crafty.

[poopoo333]

My question is when did Maynard's and Edgar's injuries occur?

Did Maynard have a bad knee going into the last fight ,did it happen because of the fight, or did it happen in training?

I've heard Edgar has had back problems for a while



"[It was] just some old stuff that I've been kind of going through for the last couple camps," Maynard said. "I was like, well, this is for a title so I got to push through it. ...Then Edgar pulled out and it was an opportunity to heal up, and I took that opportunity."


UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (http://www.mmafighting.com/tag/Frankie+Edgar/) has begun treatment for a back injury with what could be a series of shots to address the problem. On Monday's edition of The MMA Hour, Edgar said that the injury that forced him out of his scheduled UFC 130 (http://www.mmafighting.com/tag/UFC+130/) title defense against Gray Maynard was due to an extreme flare-up of an existing problem.

Earlier Monday, he had an epidural injection to address the pain. It will take up to four days to determine whether it worked. According to Edgar, the ultimate solution is something more invasive, but his doctors are trying to stem the pain and delay what might be inevitable.

"I think eventually I'm going to need surgery," said Edgar, who also suffered a rib injury in training. "Hopefully these shots will slow down the process and give me a couple more years without having to do the surgery."

The shots may prove an effective temporary solution, but if they don't work, he could have another round of shots that will go directly into his nerves.

Edgar said his back issues go back to his past, and that he had surgery 11 years ago. Since then, he occasionally suffered small flare-ups that would knock him out of the gym for a day or two, but about 3-4 weeks ago, he was hit with another flare-up that he quickly realized was far more severe.

He was in such pain that he could barely walk around.

It soon became clear that he would not be able to fight, a disappointment after going through a big portion of his camp.

So besides Edgar's broken ribs, both injuries have been existing awhile. I didn't think Maynard's knee was anything serious...I was sure I remembered reading about him just getting his knee fixed since Edgar was out anyways.

[Vandelay]

I'll be all over the fight to not go the distance.

[Ludo]

I'll be all over the fight to not go the distance.

Any particular reason why?

[Vandelay]

The fact that lauzon rarely goes to decision, guillard has power in his hands, lauzon should finish if he gets guillard down, lauzon can knock out guillard. All signs just point to finish.

[Ludo]

Oh, I thought you were talking about Maynard/Edgar 3. Thats why I asked because it was a weird fight to be that confident on the "inside the distance" prop on. I gotcha now.

[Vandelay]

nope. I think a finish can happen in the edgar maynard fight, but unlikely. definitely not worth the -300 or higher line that it will be to go 5 rds. I do happen to be in the minority and think maynard will win.

[poopoo333]

Anthony Pettis/Jeremy Stephens added

[SPX]

That will be an interesting fight. I'll be on Pettis if the odds are good.

[Luke]

So besides Edgar's broken ribs, both injuries have been existing awhile. I didn't think Maynard's knee was anything serious...I was sure I remembered reading about him just getting his knee fixed since Edgar was out anyways.

Good stuff to know, thanks poopoo

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/4070.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

What do you guys think the Florian/Aldo line will be? I'm not sure what to think of this fight to be honest

[Luke]

What do you guys think the Florian/Aldo line will be? I'm not sure what to think of this fight to be honest

-350 to -375

[Thewisemann]

I'll take Aldo to -300.

[poopoo333]

Nick Catone vs. Aaron Simpson added to October's UFC 136 event (http://mmajunkie.com/news/24462/nick-catone-vs-aaron-simpson-added-to-octobers-ufc-136-event.mma)

[SPX]

I assume that will be an easy win for Simpson.

[poopoo333]

Heavyweights Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic added to UFC 136 in Houston (http://mmajunkie.com/news/24486/heavyweights-joey-beltran-vs-stipe-miocic-added-to-ufc-136-in-houston.mma)

[Luke]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/4106.png

[SPX]

HULK SMASH Aldo line.

[edman5555]

I don't know. Florian has a good shot here..his wrestling is pretty decent, he might be able to stuff Aldos takedowns. That provided, he has a good chance of outstriking Aldo. Kenny is good..

[SPX]

Aldo is going to FUCK KENNY UP. Do NOT talk yourself into thinking Kenny has a chance.

Kenny was getting worked on the feet by Nunes before Nunes gassed and Aldo would eat Nunes as a morning snack.

I think the weight drop was a bad idea for Kenny. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him get stopped here and Kenny never gets stopped (unless he's fighting Motivated BJ).

[edman5555]

I dont remember kenny getting worked on the feet by Nunes..

[edman5555]

also, diego isnt bad.. In addition to that, Aldo gassed really really bad in his last fight.

[SPX]

Nunes was clearly winning until he slowed down dramatically.

I like Kenny. I know I'm going to get accused again of name dropping, but I've spoken with him personally and he's super fucking cool, laid back, good sense of humor, a REALLY awesome dude. He's also a hell of a fighter. I'm a genuine fan. Also, he finishes fights.

I just think this cut is one step too far and Concentration Camp Kenny is going to get his ass kicked back to lightweight where he belongs.

[Luke]

I dont remember kenny getting worked on the feet by Nunes..

I do . After rd 1 I thought my Florian bet was fucked

[edman5555]

i remember it being close as well. Kenny has outstruck a lot of guys pretty handily though. Maybe he was having trouble with Nunes tenacity and pace. I expected Aldo to be a bigger fav, and Kenny to be a decent dog bet. At the current line though, I won't be taking him. Regardless, I will hash out my thinking here. Aldo has been able to win fights by outstriking his opponents. Kenny will probably be the best striker he has faced ( I think he is more well rounded than Hominick). Also, Kenny has a better reach than any of his previous opponents. He is much taller and longer. Better striker + Better reach could = problems for Aldo. Also, Aldo gassed bad in his last fight. If Kenny makes him work, that could happen again. I give Aldo the advantage in this one because he is so beasty but I don't count Kenny out.

[SPX]

Aldo has been able to win fights by outstriking his opponents.


Poppycock!

[edman5555]

could be poppycock.

[edman5555]

but he does knock a lot of people out.

[SPX]

I just think Kenny is a "very good" striker. Aldo is a "great" striker.

BTW, Hominick could also stand with Kenny and, I think, might beat him.

[SPX]

but he does knock a lot of people out.

Muthafuckin' double-poppycock!

AKA

Poppycock 2 Da Xtreme!

[mike]

Nunes was catching Florian alot and Aldo is faster, more explosive, more accurate in both his attacks and counters. Florian is still a good fighter but i dont think he can jab his way to a decision against Aldo.

[Mr. IWS]

Kenny never gets stopped (unless he's fighting Motivated BJ).

::thumbup::

[poopoo333]

I am going to bet Maia for sure...he is going to handle Santiago easy imo

Also thinking about betting Sonnen and hedging it a little on Stann ITD @+500

[poopoo333]

Stipe Miocic...great boxer and a division I wrestler:

http://www.casttv.com/video/yohmzra/naafs-naafs-stipe-miocic-highlights-video

He also wears Cro Cop shorts:

http://www.tapology.com/system/letterbox_images/1645/default/Stipe-Miocic.jpg?1308138955

[poopoo333]

New Melvin Guillard shirt:

http://fighterxfashion.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/young-assassin-punch-buddies.jpg

[SPX]

That shit's fucking hilarious! (In an awesome way.)

[poopoo333]

Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio added to UFC 136 in Houston (http://mmajunkie.com/news/24727/steve-cantwell-vs-mike-massenzio-added-to-ufc-136-in-houston.mma)

[poopoo333]

Josh Grispi out of UFC 136, Nam Phan steps up to face Matt Grice in Houston

tsvacDSFG

[poopoo333]

Report: Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins at UFC 136 (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/8/13/2360819/ufc-136-zhang-tie-quan-vs-darren-elkins-mma-news)

[Luke]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/423.png


Pettis/Stephens

Gulliard/Lauzon added

[SPX]

Damn, and all my money is tied up at BM.

I like Guillard at that line and will take him if it holds.

I hope Pettis' line comes down.

[MMA_scientist]

Don't see any way for Lauzon to win that fight. His takedowns are not that great, he couldn't get Stout down. Maybe he will dive roll into a leg lock. That is pretty much his only path to victory.

[poopoo333]

Pettis line is stupid imo. But he should win.

[AC88]

Edgar, Guillard and Pettis.

[mike]

any chance Stann will sub Sonnen, guys? i dont think he can ko Sonnen. he'll get taken down for 3 rounds most likely.

[Ludo]

If Stann can lock up the kind of guillotine that Marquardt had on him with more time to work it he could very well submit Sonnen. Playing props dealing with "not by sub" against Sonnen is generally not a very safe play at all.

[MMA_scientist]

Sonnen has poor submission defense, but I doubt Stann subs him. I hope he has been working his sprawl.

[SPX]

Sprawl? Is it possible to defend a Sonnen takedown?

[Mr. IWS]

Sprawl? Is it possible to defend a Sonnen takedown?

Only in the Matrix

[Thewisemann]

Stammering isn't gonna guillotine Sonnen. Miller and Marquardt both locked up Guillotines and didn't tap him. It's possible, but highly unlikely

[edman5555]

Yeah I will be on Sonnen as well as Guillard. I think Guillard by ko is almost gaurunteed.

[MMA_scientist]

Guillard is pretty much a
lock IMO.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Stann beats Sonnen. Sonnen will probably be off the juice and revert to his pre-TRT form of losing 1 fight for every 1.5 fights he wins. However, he doesn't really look like he is off the stuff.

[edman5555]

Stann does pack some power, that is the only thing that concerns me. If you really take a look at Sonnens record he doesn't really do that bad. He just manages to get tapped out, rarely knocked out though. The guys that tap him out arent bums or anything either. Filho, Anderson and Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral. Good BJJ guys. He is 10 and 3 since losing to Horn in 2006. I think has fixeda lot of the holes in his ground game. That said, anything can happen. Maybe I should just bet Guillard and leave it at that.

[MMA_scientist]

I just hate Sonnen, so I think he is overrated. But really, I don't think Stann has the style to beat him, unless he has vastly improved his takedown defense. He hasn't though, so Sonnen is going to dry hump his way to a decision.

He is .500 in the UFC though, just sayin.

[sbjj]

Stann does pack some power, that is the only thing that concerns me. If you really take a look at Sonnens record he doesn't really do that bad. He just manages to get tapped out, rarely knocked out though. The guys that tap him out arent bums or anything either. Filho, Anderson and Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral. Good BJJ guys. He is 10 and 3 since losing to Horn in 2006. I think has fixeda lot of the holes in his ground game. That said, anything can happen. Maybe I should just bet Guillard and leave it at that.

Personally, I would bet Sonnen before I would bet Guillard. Sonnen can take a mean shot and is facing a guy that while improved on the ground, is not a BJJ phenom and is just not on Sonnens level with wrestling.

Guillard is just as prone to getting subbed(Lauzon can su dudes) and has been rocked by guys that do not hit as hard as Lauzon. I actually think Guillard is a somewhat risky bet.

It sort of amazes me that Guillard is a higher favorite against Lauzon than he was against Roller.

[edman5555]

I don't know how prone Guillard is to getting subbed at this point. He has gone a long time without it happening. Kinda like Chael. I think they are both learning some sub Defense. I agree with you about Lauzon being able to sub him if they go to the ground I just really disagree about Joe's ability to get the fight there. I don't think thats happening. Melvin is very hard to take down. I think most of his sub losses are because he opted to take down his opponent. On top of that, Joe will get blasted on the feet. He has no chance standing IMO. Guillard has never been knocked out BTW so lauzon is not going to be the first guy to do it. If this fight goes past the second round I will be suprised.

[sbjj]

I think Lauzon is going to try for the takedown harder than any of Guillards most recent opponents. I had a big bet on Guillard against Roller because I thought Roller would stand with Guillard, and his takedowns are actually pretty weak. But I really think Lauzon is going to pressure Guillard like he has not been pressured recently.

Meanwhile Sonnen has taken down and dominated 3 or 4 fighters whose TDD is far above that of Stann. And i think Sonnen is actually priced better.

i am not betting either straight up. But i was considering throwing Sonnen in some parlays.

[edman5555]

Yeah Stanna TDD isn't good. He knocked out Leben though. That worries me. I think it may have been a fluke though.

[poopoo333]

Yeah Stanna TDD isn't good. He knocked out Leben though. That worries me. I think it may have been a fluke though.

I'll save people the time:

"OMG CHRIS LEBEN WASN'T FEELING GOOD!!"

Guess what? If they fought again after Leben was cured by Ghandi or whoever the fuck cures people, Stann would still win.

[edman5555]

it might be true, it might not be. Who knows. Lebens chin could be shot, or not. Either way Chael has a good chin,.

[poopoo333]

I was just saying that because I knew somebody would throw that out there. I think Sonnen is gonna beat Stann easily.

[Vandelay]

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick

[poopoo333]

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick
::speak::

[poopoo333]

I think Edgar will come back even better, and make the adjustments to not get caught like he did against Maynard in their last fight. I really think Edgar is going to win this one, he really impresses me.

Aldo/Florian is actually a little tough to call for me. Aldo will probably win, but his conditioning is a question mark imo.

Chael Sonnen will Sonnen Stann.

Dave Herman's defense looked like shit against J.O.E., will be smaller, and has some pretty shitty cardio. I think Russow would be a good dog play.

I'm in the minority and think Lauzon has a shot. I just hate how he gasses after round 1. I'm not sure if Lauzon will be able to get Guillard down though, or hold him there if he does. Lauzon's best shot is probably grabbing a choke in a scramble.

I think Demian Maia is gonna dominate Santiago on the mat. Santiago was taken down a lot and held down a lot by Misaki.

Pettis/Stephens is tough to call but Pettis has the slight edge imo

I think Stipe Miocic will beat Joey Beltran..but we all know the IWS/Joey Beltran curse.

Nam Phan should beat Matt Grice.

I'm unsure on Zhang/Elkins, Simpson/Catone, and Cantwell/Massenzio. It will be Cantwell's 1st cut to MW though, and he looked like total shit against Diabate.

[Mr. IWS]

I'll be on chael. Only time stann wins is when he fights guys who r sick

Yes, and Chael only loses to Brazillians.

Sonnen via awesomeness

[edman5555]

I'll take Sonnen. I am not sure about Dave Herman though I guess I should not underestimate Mike Russow. I can't agree with you about Edgar though, Maynard beat him once and IMO kicked his ass the second time. Edgar barely squeezed by. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him win but I don't see why he has the advantage.

[Svino]

I can't agree with you about Edgar though, Maynard beat him once and IMO kicked his ass the second time. Edgar barely squeezed by. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him win but I don't see why he has the advantage.

It seems that the theory goes something like this:

1) The first fight doesn't count because it was so long ago -- superseded by the second.
2) Maynard got lucky by clipping Edgar in round 1; the later rounds represent the fight as it most likely would have gone.

I don't really agree though. I'm prepared to bed Maynard if I can get him at any significant +odds. I do believe that Maynard gassed out a bit from trying to finish early.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I took the first fight into account when I bet the 2nd fight (I bet Maynard). I thought something very similar would happen.

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is close enough that either guy could take it. As such, the value is with Maynard IMO. I like what Frankie is doing with his training more, but Maynard is bigger.

[edman5555]

Yeah Couture said Gray told him he gassed after round 1. Chasing frankie around like that and swining made him tired. Frankie was still fresh afterwards though because he has an endless tank. If Gray paces himself he can win this..this is a toss up. It should also go the distance.

[Svino]

I'm prepared to bed Maynard if I can get him at any significant +odds.

Um, shit. I mean I'm prepared to bet Maynard.

And yeah, in the second match, I was on Maynard to win by decision with a hedge on Edgar by decision. Lost it all, naturally. Did the same dumb thing again later with Fitch/Penn.

[poopoo333]

^^BOL that sucks some major dick

[poopoo333]

Anybody think Elkins will win?

[poopoo333]

So Guillard is @ Imperial Athletics now instead of Jacksons?

[Vandelay]

Herman was yanked from this card. And to take his spot on the main card.........not maia vs santiago, not stephens vs pettis, but phan vs garcia.

[MMA_scientist]

Dana is such a fag.

[Luke]

Herman was yanked from this card. And to take his spot on the main card.........not maia vs santiago, not stephens vs pettis, but phan vs garcia.

::thumbdown::

[poopoo333]

Dave Herman says UFC 136 scratch due to failed drug test for marijuana, steroids (http://mmajunkie.com/news/25449/dave-herman-says-ufc-136-scratch-due-to-failed-drug-test-for-marijuana-steroids.mma)

[MMA_scientist]

Dave Herman says UFC 136 scratch due to failed drug test for marijuana, steroids (http://mmajunkie.com/news/25449/dave-herman-says-ufc-136-scratch-due-to-failed-drug-test-for-marijuana-steroids.mma)


"Basically, I failed my drug test," Herman, who's now training with Team Quest...

They really should just go ahead and change the team logo to a needle.

[sbjj]

From what I have heard. Spike has the say on what airs on the prelims broadcast. I am not sure Dana can yank a fight that is already set to go on Spike.

[SPX]

They really should just go ahead and change the team logo to a needle.

Lulz

[Luke]

They should have just let him fight and fail his test afterward.

[Ludo]

BJJ doesn't work on him, but THC does.

[Vandelay]

Hopefully Stipe Miocic comes in as an underdog. This guy looks pretty good. wrestling background and he uses it to keep fights standing and use his boxing/kickboxing.

[poopoo333]

Hopefully Stipe Miocic comes in as an underdog. This guy looks pretty good. wrestling background and he uses it to keep fights standing and use his boxing/kickboxing.

Agreed....I think he may be a good bet

[Thewisemann]

So far I'm on Sonnen Dec, Edgar and Aldo

[poopoo333]

Anybody gonna bet Phan?

[SPX]

Depends on the line. . .

I have already bet Sonnen, Guillard and Aldo.

I'll probably also do a Edgar-Pettis parlay.

[poopoo333]

I'm probably gonna bet Edgar to win 5u. Plan on betting Phan for sure as long as he isn't -200. Stipe Miocic if the line is right. Maybe Darren Elkins for a small play. Maybe a Maia/Guillard parlay.

[Vandelay]

am i the only one thats gonna be on maynard?

[Ludo]

am i the only one thats gonna be on maynard?

you and edmann most likely.

[sbjj]

I like Maynard also. I think he would be 2-0 against Edgar if would have not unloaded everything in that first round.

[edman5555]

I don't know. I wouldn't want to bet on edgar coming back more improved. There is no way to prove that is going to happen. I would have to say Maynard is the best bet here. He is a dog. He won the first fight with wrestling. He nearly knocked out Edgar the second time. I think the best bet is probably the fight goes the distance. I will probably bet fight goes the distance, Maynard, Maynard by decision or some sort of combination of that.

[Vandelay]

Full props are out

[SPX]

I like Maynard also. I think he would be 2-0 against Edgar if would have not unloaded everything in that first round.

I think you could just as easily argue that Edgar just got caught and without the first round super-punch that it would've been 5 rounds of Edgar edging them out.

[edman5555]

It can be argued either way. I still think a small margin should be given to Maynard. With him being the dog, that makes him the play. Either way, the best play is probably the fight going the distance.

[edman5555]

If you can get good odds.

[sbjj]

I think you could just as easily argue that Edgar just got caught and without the first round super-punch that it would've been 5 rounds of Edgar edging them out.

Agreed. But I thought it was pretty obvious that Maynard had gassed himself out after that. Yet he still kept it close the remaining rounds. Even winning another round.

I remember someone in here during the fight(I think it was Luke) saying he really wished Maynard had stopped him because he looked winded. And that was right after the 1st round.

All we know right now is that Maynard beat him clear one time. And has proved he can hurt Edgar. We also learned that it seems Maynard can take Edgars punches a whole lot better.

One worry to me is that Edgar came back stronger in the rematch with Penn. Almost as if he had solved the riddle.

I just think Maynard has a better strategy this time including well placed takedowns.

If Maynard was favored i would not bet him.

[SPX]

I really do think it could go either way, and I don't like either guy's line at the moment.

I had a bet on Edgar at -125 which, before the other day when I checked, was still in place. But I guess it passed the date when the fight was supposed to go down because it wasn't there anymore when I looked a couple of days ago.

I might just stay away from this one and enjoy watching it.

[Mr. IWS]

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/5911/umadmaynard.gif

[Ludo]

I'm on Edgar to win 2u already, I might throw enough to win another unit on him. I think Gray catching him like that was an anomaly. I doubt it would happen again(when was the last time Maynard rocked anyone standing like that?) and if three knockdowns and landing over 70 strikes in a round isn't enough to stop or slow Edgar down, what is? I'm basing alot of it on rounds 2,3,4, and 5 of the second Maynard fight as well as the second Penn fight. Edgar comes back hard from controversy. I realize Maynard may have gassed himself out, but how did all that punishment not take it's toll on Edgar at the same time? How do you beat a guy who you can hurt but not hurt other than crushing him with one punch?

[poopoo333]

I agree with what SBJJ said about Edgar "solving riddles".


Stann by sub is +1120, if I had $ in my 5d I would bet that. He has probably been working subs off of his back this whole camp

[Vandelay]

eh, he probably wont sub him. Sonnens sub d isnt that bad. He went 5 rounds at a grueling pace b4 he was subbed by silva. plus he survived marquardt and miller. Both better at jj then stann.

[MMA_scientist]

I agree with what SBJJ said about Edgar "solving riddles".


Stann by sub is +1120, if I had $ in my 5d I would bet that. He has probably been working subs off of his back this whole camp

Stann and Condit have both been working out of Gracie Barra NM for their fights. I was going to post a vid a while back, but I didn't. Anyway, they both realize they are getting put on thier backs.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Maynard, Stephens, Aldo, Guillard by sub is -714. If I add Stann in it comes down to -523. I like the other 4 ok, don't like Stann/Sonnen. I have no reservations about Guillard and Stephens... those are in my 2011 parlay. I don't know that it is worth it at -714... Maynard could possibly sub Edgar if he rocks him and takes a RNC, though I doubt he would go for it, I think that is pretty safe too. Aldo, i doubt he can submit Florian, but I am sure he has a bunch of tricks up his sleeve. I don't like that as much as the others, especially since Florian is probably looking to grapple.

[edman5555]

i took guillard r1 1u to win 2.25u and guillard inside the distance 2.5u to win like 1.5u or so. They limited me on the guillard inside the distance..

[edman5555]

limit gone

[MMA_scientist]

I bet Guillard straight up at -320. I may hedge that with Lauzon by submission.

[edman5555]

i just feel like lauzon has very little standing, guillard is a badass on the feet and lauzon will have a lot of trouble getting him down. maybe i am wrong, the round 1 thing may have been a little hasty.

[sbjj]

OK, Sonnen, Aldo, and Guillard all seem to be sitting around the same price. Who is the best bet? And who is the most questionable.

I think they all win, and I am just trying to figure who I am most confident in.

[SPX]

I think Aldo is probably the best bet, because he should be better than Kenflo everywhere and has no visible holes.

Sonnen and Guillard should both win, but they both have sub defense questions.

[Mr. IWS]

OK, Sonnen, Aldo, and Guillard all seem to be sitting around the same price. Who is the best bet? And who is the most questionable.

I think they all win, and I am just trying to figure who I am most confident in.

I think Guillard is.

[SPX]

i just feel like lauzon has very little standing, guillard is a badass on the feet and lauzon will have a lot of trouble getting him down. maybe i am wrong, the round 1 thing may have been a little hasty.

My take is that Lauzon's 1st round is like Carwin's 5th. So I could see him keeping it close for a round and then getting blasted in the 2nd or 3rd.

[sbjj]

I think Guillard is.

Best bet or most questionable.

[Mr. IWS]

Best bet or most questionable.

Whoops........Best Bet. He gonna fuck that white devil up.

[sbjj]

I think Aldo is probably the best bet, because he should be better than Kenflo everywhere and has no visible holes.

Sonnen and Guillard should both win, but they both have sub defense questions.

i was leaning that way also. One thing Aldo is, is that he seems dependable. if it is true that he was near death against Mark that says even more about him than if he just blasted him out of there.

[Vandelay]

I guess Aldo had a really tough weight cut prior to hominick fight. This might be the reason why he looked so bad on the ground.


http://www.izlesene.com/video/jose-aldo-weight-cut-battle-part-1/4807943

[Mr. IWS]

So I could see him keeping it close for a round and then getting blasted in the 2nd or 3rd.

Pretty much my thoughts.

[SPX]

i was leaning that way also. One thing Aldo is, is that he seems dependable. if it is true that he was near death against Mark that says even more about him than if he just blasted him out of there.

Yeah, I agree.

I guess basically I think that Sonnen and Guillard both stand a reasonable chance of "getting caught" because of deficiencies in their game.

But Kenflo is just going to have to be a better fighter and I don't see that happening.

[Luke]

OK, Sonnen, Aldo, and Guillard all seem to be sitting around the same price. Who is the best bet? And who is the most questionable.

I think they all win, and I am just trying to figure who I am most confident in.

Guillard best bet, Aldo most questionable.

[MMA_scientist]

OK, Sonnen, Aldo, and Guillard all seem to be sitting around the same price. Who is the best bet? And who is the most questionable.

I think they all win, and I am just trying to figure who I am most confident in.


I think Guillard is the best bet and I think Aldo is the worst bet. Lauzon has to submit him quickly... Lauzon gasses out and his takedowns are not very good. He could not get Stout down, most guys can get Stout down if they need to. I feel that Lauzon will resort to guard pulling, may try to dive for a heel hook if he gets stuffed, but outside of a quick submission, he is toast.

Aldo should be better standing. I am not convinced that his ground game is all it is cracked up to be after the Hominick fight. Kenny is very hard to put away and he doesn't take a lot of damage standing. I could see Kenny hanging around and Aldo gassing out again. I think Kenny will come in with a gameplan to clinch. Aldo is already complaining about the weight cut and talking about permanently moving to 155. I think Florian may be able to stay alive for a few rounds and then press Aldo on the ground.

With Sonnen, you know what you are getting. He is going to try to GNP Stann. Stann is going to try to force a standup fight and catch a sub from his back. Sonnen will probably win, but I think there are a lot of questions around him right now, and I don't feel good laying those odds. Although, he is probably going to do what he always does... Stann has looked massively improved every time he comes out, and Sonnen may be off the juice.

[SPX]

Aldo is already complaining about the weight cut and talking about permanently moving to 155. I think Florian may be able to stay alive for a few rounds and then press Aldo on the ground.

That's interesting, because I just read some shit that Edgar is intrigued by the possibility of challenging for the 145 belt, presumably to hold both simultaneously.

Aldo vs Edgar . . . who ya got?

[MMA_scientist]

That's interesting, because I just read some shit that Edgar is intrigued by the possibility of challenging for the 145 belt, presumably to hold both simultaneously.

Aldo vs Edgar . . . who ya got?

Aldo

[Luke]

Aldo

Crazy

[Thewisemann]

Edgar has a FAR better chance than Florian, Aldo is gonna murder K-Flo

[SPX]

I think it's a tough one to call.

I could see Edgar running circles around Aldo, but I could also see Aldo just steamrolling Edgar and having an answer for everything.

[poopoo333]

I think it's a tough one to call.

I could see Edgar running circles around Aldo, but I could also see Aldo just steamrolling Edgar and having an answer for everything.

No pun intended?

[SPX]

Yeah, that was unintended.

[Thewisemann]

I would pick Edgar over Aldo

[poopoo333]

Thoughts on these?

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic
Darren Elkins vs. Tiequan Zhang
Eric Schafer vs. Aaron Simpson
Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

[SPX]

War Beltran

I think Simpson will beat Schafer.

Cantwell, despite being incredibly underwhelming in his last few fights, should beat Massenzio.

[poopoo333]

This will be Cantwell's debut @ MW fwiw

Schafer's 2nd fight @ MW as well.

[SPX]

I think Simpson will probably outwork Schafer, but with that said, Simpson has looked a little sketchy in his last few fights.

Cantwell should have the wrestling to stop Massenzio's takedowns or at least get back to his feet, and on the feet he should be a lot better.

[poopoo333]

What fight has Cantwell ever shown defensive wrestling in? I think Cantwell will be the dog

[SPX]

Fights where guys tried to take him down.

And if Cantwell is the dog I'll definitely take him. I'm thinking he'll come in around -150 to -170.

[poopoo333]

Fights where guys tried to take him down.

And if Cantwell is the dog I'll definitely take him. I'm thinking he'll come in around -150 to -170.

Which fights were they?

[SPX]

The ones where he fought people that did that.

[poopoo333]

The ones where he fought people that did that.

Oh, so never?

[MMA_scientist]

Crazy

Aldo has already beat several midget wrestlers. I don't see how Edgar is any different. Aldo is not a stationary target like BJ... I think he would drop Edgar. Just one man's opinion.

I think he is going to beat Florian too, just wouldn't be shocked if Florian can drag him into the deep water. FWIW, I think Florian could give a good fight to Edgar and maybe beat him. Just cause Maynard was able to use his size to hold Florian down, doesn't mean Edgar could. Guida couldn't.

[SPX]

Oh, so never?

Has he not?

[poopoo333]

Has he not?

Not in any of the fights I have seen him in.

[SPX]

Well let's reverse the question. . . When was he easily taken down?

[poopoo333]

Well let's reverse the question. . . When was he easily taken down?

I am basically saying there is no evidence that Cantwell has solid defensive wrestling because we haven't really seen any wrestlers/grapplers work to take him down

[SPX]

Okay, I can't remember a lot of the details from his WEC fights, so I'll agree with you.

But what we do know is that he has shown good skills on the ground. We also know he's a better striker than Massenzio, who not only is habitually outstruck but was also subbed by Brian Stann, who has never shown the grappling acumen than Cantwell has.

Maybe Massenzio will LnP his way to a win here. God knows Cantwell has been disappointing me ever since the rubber match with Stann. But it just seems like Cantwell has more tools than Massenzio does and should win this fight.

[poopoo333]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK3_q3RQAWU&feature=player_embedded

[SPX]

I mildly enjoyed that.

[edman5555]

OK, Sonnen, Aldo, and Guillard all seem to be sitting around the same price. Who is the best bet? And who is the most questionable.

I think they all win, and I am just trying to figure who I am most confident in.

Guillard. Kenny has a decent shot IMO. I still can't forget Aldo gassing against Hominick. If that were Kenny on top Aldo might have gotten choked out. Sonnen would be my second pick. I see him being able to take down Stann fairly easily. I guess Stanns out would be a tko/ko. I guess I consider it more likely stann will ko Sonnen than I do Lauzon subbing Guillard.

[Vandelay]

Lets nor forget zombie florian that showed up against nunes. Aldo had a horrible fight against hominick which could of been due to the hard weight cut or supposed illness. Who knows. I cant really foresee florian winning a title at this weight class, just too much weight to cut. Ill wait to see how aldo looks at the weigh in though before I place my bet.

[edman5555]

Kenny might have a reach advantage on Aldo as well. Kenny should actually have the longest reach of anyone Aldo has gone up against IIRC. Anyone else think this might make a big difference? On the other hand I could see Aldo hurting Kennys skinny legs badly with those nast leg kicks of his.

[Ludo]

I don't see Florian with an out here beyond possibly sticking and moving for five rounds. He's not knocking Aldo out, and Florian's ground game would have netted him similar results against Hominick. He's not an offense geared grappler from the bottom, his ground game is there more or less so he can jump on top of someone he just hurt, pass, and lock in the choke for the finish. But honestly I don't see him lasting the full fight because those legs will be prime targets.

[edman5555]

Yeah Aldo can probably outwrestle Kenny..maybe. It could be close. Kennys wrestling isn't that bad IMO. He dealt with Guida. Who knows about Aldos cardio. You would think that he would make the necessary changes from his last fight so that he does not gas in this one. That said, Aldo is not a god on the feet. He is great but his victims include a lot of wrestlers. Hominick is his first good striker to become a victim IIRC. Hominick was a pretty good kickboxer though, a champion of some org. Who knows how good you have to be to become a kickboxing champ of that org though. That said, I don't know how the standup plays out.

What is your breakdown of this fight Wiseman? You seem pretty confident about Aldo and you are a wiseman so lets hear it.

[SPX]

I don't really get why everyone is so caught up with Aldo's last fight, while there is little mention of Kenny's last fight (sans the Zombie Kenny remark).

Kenny was CLEARLY LOSING against Nunes before Nunes gassed and something tells me Aldo uses Nunes as a punching bag back at Nova Uniao. Don't get me wrong, I think Nunes is a solid fighter, but he's still the fighter who barely squeaked by Brown and Assuncao and Kenny lucked out that Nunes couldn't keep pace with him.

Besides, okay, Aldo had one lackluster showing . . . 1 in 9 fights. How did he look against Faber? How did he look against Brown? How did he look against Gamburyan? etc.

[sbjj]

I don't really get why everyone is so caught up with Aldo's last fight, while there is little mention of Kenny's last fight (sans the Zombie Kenny remark).

Kenny was CLEARLY LOSING against Nunes before Nunes gassed and something tells me Aldo uses Nunes as a punching bag back at Nova Uniao. Don't get me wrong, I think Nunes is a solid fighter, but he's still the fighter who barely squeaked by Brown and Assuncao and Kenny lucked out that Nunes couldn't keep pace with him.

Besides, okay, Aldo had one lackluster showing . . . 1 in 9 fights. How did he look against Faber? How did he look against Brown? How did he look against Gamburyan? etc.

100% agree. And lets not forget. Aldo was smashing Hom. in the early going of that fight. I am pretty sure that ONE round was an abnomily. Out of Guillard, Sonnen, and Aldo...Aldo seems to be the most dependable of the bunch.

[Luke]

I don't really get why everyone is so caught up with Aldo's last fight, while there is little mention of Kenny's last fight (sans the Zombie Kenny remark).

Kenny was CLEARLY LOSING against Nunes before Nunes gassed and something tells me Aldo uses Nunes as a punching bag back at Nova Uniao. Don't get me wrong, I think Nunes is a solid fighter, but he's still the fighter who barely squeaked by Brown and Assuncao and Kenny lucked out that Nunes couldn't keep pace with him.

.

Clearly beating someone in rd 1 means jack to me when the fight is 3 rounds . On that same card Munoz was CLEARLY LOSING to Maia after rd 1 and Herman was CLEARLY LOSING to Einemo but both won . Saying someone was winning until they lost is irrelevant imo.

Kenny could have looked lackluster because it was his first cut to 145,just guessing though.

I think what isnt being talked about enough is the experience and size gap of the 2 fighters.

[SPX]

Clearly beating someone in rd 1 means jack to me when the fight is 3 rounds . On that same card Munoz was CLEARLY LOSING to Maia after rd 1 and Herman was CLEARLY LOSING to Einemo but both won . Saying someone was winning until they lost is irrelevant imo.

My point is that there was a skill gap between Kenny and Nunes. Kenny ended up winning because Nunes gassed. But in terms of technical skills, Kenny got the short end of that stick.

How do you think Nunes' skills matchup to Aldo's?

[sbjj]

experience and size gap? Aldo has more fights than Kenny. Has fought 5 full rounds twice, as opposed to Kenny once. And what size gap? I think Aldo is the bigger guy. Kenny has like 4 inches of reach on him, but that is it.

[edman5555]

I don't really get why everyone is so caught up with Aldo's last fight, while there is little mention of Kenny's last fight (sans the Zombie Kenny remark).

Kenny was CLEARLY LOSING against Nunes before Nunes gassed and something tells me Aldo uses Nunes as a punching bag back at Nova Uniao. Don't get me wrong, I think Nunes is a solid fighter, but he's still the fighter who barely squeaked by Brown and Assuncao and Kenny lucked out that Nunes couldn't keep pace with him.

Besides, okay, Aldo had one lackluster showing . . . 1 in 9 fights. How did he look against Faber? How did he look against Brown? How did he look against Gamburyan? etc.


yeah

[edman5555]

Clearly beating someone in rd 1 means jack to me when the fight is 3 rounds . On that same card Munoz was CLEARLY LOSING to Maia after rd 1 and Herman was CLEARLY LOSING to Einemo but both won . Saying someone was winning until they lost is irrelevant imo.

Kenny could have looked lackluster because it was his first cut to 145,just guessing though.

I think what isnt being talked about enough is the experience and size gap of the 2 fighters.

yes

[sbjj]

I think GSP is going to lose to Condit because he lost the last round to Shields in his title fight last time out.

Point is, you either believe Aldo was just a myth who made fighters like Manny, Brown, and Faber look like kids or he had ONE off round because he was sick(which is what is reported) and had a bad cut.

No one really knows for sure, but I just do not believe his dominant wins over Faber and such were luck.

[edman5555]

My point is that there was a skill gap between Kenny and Nunes. Kenny ended up winning because Nunes gassed. But in terms of technical skills, Kenny got the short end of that stick.

How do you think Nunes' skills matchup to Aldo's?


arguable...you could also say nunes one the first round because he was so tenacious. However the tenacity was not sustainable for 3 rounds. After that, Kennys technique took over. That is what I think happened.

[Luke]

experience and size gap? Aldo has more fights than Kenny. Has fought 5 full rounds twice, as opposed to Kenny once. And what size gap? I think Aldo is the bigger guy. Kenny has like 4 inches of reach on him, but that is it.


I forgot number of fights equal experience not the quality of fighters you have fought.......so if I fought 40 local cans I'd be more experienced than Dan Henderson,got ya.


And what size gap? I think Aldo is the bigger guy.


..........................

[edman5555]

experience and size gap? Aldo has more fights than Kenny. Has fought 5 full rounds twice, as opposed to Kenny once. And what size gap? I think Aldo is the bigger guy. Kenny has like 4 inches of reach on him, but that is it.

Kenny has been fighting MMA longer, they both have the same number of fights. Aldo has gotta be physically stronger, Kenny has the reach advantage. I would think Aldo has the wrestling advantage. Kenny might suprise us though. Kenny definetly has a shot though. I'm not certain Aldo has better HANDS than Kenny. His leg kicks gotta be better though. He has to have the best leg kicks in the division. It's hard to predict what is going to happen in this one IMO.

[edman5555]

I think GSP is going to lose to Condit because he lost the last round to Shields in his title fight last time out.

Point is, you either believe Aldo was just a myth who made fighters like Manny, Brown, and Faber look like kids or he had ONE off round because he was sick(which is what is reported) and had a bad cut.

No one really knows for sure, but I just do not believe his dominant wins over Faber and such were luck.

I agree. I no longer think Aldo is not capable of going the distance. Something happen in that fight to cause him to gas. Warning though, I do remember reading that Aldo added size for that fight. That may be the cause. You would think that he would have corrected it for this fight though. Obviously they would be well aware of it after his last outing.

[SPX]

arguable...you could also say nunes one the first round because he was so tenacious. However the tenacity was not sustainable for 3 rounds. After that, Kennys technique took over. That is what I think happened.

I'd need to go back and watch the fight again, but I remember Kenny basically winning because he turned it into a grappling match against a gassed opponent after getting hit in the face several times.

[sbjj]

I forgot number of fights equal experience not the quality of fighters you have fought.......so if I fought 40 local cans I'd be more experienced than Dan Henderson,got ya.



..........................

Aldo has plenty of decent scalps. But I defer to you on who is good or bad.

As for Kenny being bigger...LOL! I guess because he came from LW you just autopilot that he is the bigger guy. I have little doubt that Aldo will be the heavier dude come fight night.

[sbjj]

I agree. I no longer think Aldo is not capable of going the distance. Something happen in that fight to cause him to gas. Warning though, I do remember reading that Aldo added size for that fight. That may be the cause. You would think that he would have corrected it for this fight though. Obviously they would be well aware of it after his last outing.

That is what worries me. But Aldo was coming off a layoff was he not?

[sbjj]

Food for thought. If Nunes would have dropped Florian 30 seconds earlier in the 3rd and was able to jump on him for the last 30 seconds of the fight. he would have beat Florian more than likely.

[poopoo333]

I don't think either guy has a significant size advantage. I am coming around on Aldo...but I don't think Ken Flo is going to be completely outclassed. I will probably parlay Aldo and Maia.

[Luke]

I'm not even betting Florian and think it maybe his last fight but to just act like Aldo is a lock is silly .

[edman5555]

I wonder what the odds will be for maia- stantiago. Santiago's record isn't too bad by the way. He finishes a lot of fights. 9 knockouts and 12 submissions.

[SPX]

I'm not even beating Florian and think it maybe his last fight but to just act like Aldo is a lock is silly .

You really think it might be his last fight?

I really don't think he's even close to ready to retire. If he loses here, I think he'll go back to 155 and seek out "interesting fights."

[edman5555]

I'm not even beating Florian and think it maybe his last fight but to just act like Aldo is a lock is silly .

I don't think he is a lock either. I do think Kenny is the underdog though. As for Sonnen-Stann, I am hesitant to bet on that one because Stann has so much power. His first 6 straight wins were by tko. His last two are by tko and one of them was Leben. Whether or not Leben was sick( he probably was) it is still impressive. That said, Sonnen does have a great chin and most of the fight should take place with Stann on his back.

[Luke]

You really think it might be his last fight?



If he gets blown out I do,think he'll take the announcing road ....just guessing though.

[poopoo333]

I wonder what the odds will be for maia- stantiago. Santiago's record isn't too bad by the way. He finishes a lot of fights. 9 knockouts and 12 submissions.

Watch Santiago vs Misaki I and II. His T3D sucks worse than Steve Cantwell's. I would put a small bet on Maia by (T)KO @+1000 or whatever it may be, Santiago's chin is made out of already broken glass.

[sbjj]

Who is acting like Aldo is a lock. I am not even going to bet him straight.

Thats like us saying you are acting like Kenny is a lock.

[sbjj]

Watch Santiago vs Misaki I and II. His T3D sucks worse than Steve Cantwell's. I would put a small bet on Maia by (T)KO @+1000 or whatever it may be, Santiago's chin is made out of already broken glass.

i could seriously see Maia stopping him with strikes.

[Vandelay]

Aldo will definitely be the stronger guy. His defense standing is phenominal as well. Routinely slipped hominicks jabs, hooks, straights, etc. and countered well. I think there will be a huge speed difference between the two as well. So Florian will be at a speed disadvantage which is critical, and probably wont be able to take this to the ground. Does any1 here think Florian has better striking than hominick?

[edman5555]

That is a good question. I don't have the answer. I would think Hominick should be the better striker. I know I said otherwise before but I think I was just using some wishful thinking. Hominick is a kickboxing champion. I stand corrected, it actually says ISKA canadian championSHIP on his wiki page. Maybe he isn't a champion. Either way, he was getting his legs kicked to shit by Aldo.

[Ludo]

Aldo has plenty of decent scalps. But I defer to you on who is good or bad.

As for Kenny being bigger...LOL! I guess because he came from LW you just autopilot that he is the bigger guy. I have little doubt that Aldo will be the heavier dude come fight night.

Actually I think the fact that he came from Middleweight on TUF and Welterweight after that before making his lightweight debut is why someone might "Autopilot" that he is the bigger guy(which he very much is). When it was announced the Featherweight division was coming to the UFC he tweeted saying he couldn't cut that much weight. It wasn't until getting dominated by Gray Maynard that he decided to actually try, and thus holocaust Florian was shown to the world.

[MMA_scientist]

Damn, I forgot Maia was on this card too. There is some money to be made here... just got to figure out the right combination.

Maia-Guillard
Maia-Sonnen-Guillard
Maia-Sonnen-Guillard-Aldo

I am leaning Maia-Guillard for my big play. Maybe something small on the other fights.

[SPX]

Watch Santiago vs Misaki I and II. His T3D sucks worse than Steve Cantwell's. I would put a small bet on Maia by (T)KO @+1000 or whatever it may be, Santiago's chin is made out of already broken glass.

LOL on multiple levels.

[SPX]

Actually I think the fact that he came from Middleweight on TUF and Welterweight after that before making his lightweight debut is why someone might "Autopilot" that he is the bigger guy(which he very much is).

Did he look "big" compared to Nunes? Not really. He looked sick.

I mean, WW Kenny is not as big as MW Kenny. Just like FW Kenny is not as big as LW Kenny. To get down to FW, he not only had to flush a bunch of water out of his system, but he also had to lose mass. If Aldo is not bigger, then I expect them to be about the same size.

BTW, Kenny already looked like Holocaust Florian at LW. Now he looks like some shit out of Lord of the Rings.

[MMA_scientist]

Agree that Kenny is not appreciably bigger than Aldo. They have to weigh within 5 or 10 pounds of each other... it isn't going to make a difference. His height might make a difference.

Edman mentioned Aldo adding mass. There was an article the other day where he said he was considering moving to LW permanently because the cut is getting very difficult. Maybe Aldo was sick last time, maybe he is getting too big to make that weight. I just don't really want to find out while I have money on him.

That said, I do expect him to win. I just think Kenny's durability gives him an out.

[Vandelay]

I thought the movie industry was making the machinist 2 and that auditions were being held around the beginning of summer. Guess i was wrong

[Luke]

I thought the movie industry was making the machinist 2 and that auditions were being held around the beginning of summer. Guess i was wrong
......................

[sbjj]

Actually I think the fact that he came from Middleweight on TUF and Welterweight after that before making his lightweight debut is why someone might "Autopilot" that he is the bigger guy(which he very much is). When it was announced the Featherweight division was coming to the UFC he tweeted saying he couldn't cut that much weight. It wasn't until getting dominated by Gray Maynard that he decided to actually try, and thus holocaust Florian was shown to the world.

Just think you are plain wrong when you say "He very much is" bigger than Aldo. He actually looked smaller than Nunes did. But I guess we will just disagree. Was he bigger than Maynard also? I mean he did cut all the way from MW like you said.

Bottom line. IMO Kenny is just not a very big, thick, bulky(whatever you want to call it) guy. And this is coming from a guy who is built alot like him.

[sbjj]

Did he look "big" compared to Nunes? Not really. He looked sick.

I mean, WW Kenny is not as big as MW Kenny. Just like FW Kenny is not as big as LW Kenny. To get down to FW, he not only had to flush a bunch of water out of his system, but he also had to lose mass. If Aldo is not bigger, then I expect them to be about the same size.

BTW, Kenny already looked like Holocaust Florian at LW. Now he looks like some shit out of Lord of the Rings.

100% correct IMO. Just because a guy drops down a class does not automatically make him the bigger fighter. You see it in Boxing all the time. The fact that Kenny is dropping down will not make him bigger. Using that logic, he should have been the biggest LW fighter on the planet since he once fought at MW.

[sbjj]

Damn, I forgot Maia was on this card too. There is some money to be made here... just got to figure out the right combination.

Maia-Guillard
Maia-Sonnen-Guillard
Maia-Sonnen-Guillard-Aldo

I am leaning Maia-Guillard for my big play. Maybe something small on the other fights.

I am going to bet ALL those above parlays. I will also parlay Maynard individually with each guy for a unit each.

Are you most confident with Maia?

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/423.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[SPX]

I hate that I was right about Cantwell's line.

[poopoo333]

I'm happy you were right. I put a small bet on Beltran @+180, there is a good chance he will lose but I thought Miocic would open below -150. I am annoyed that Phan is -170 as well, he was like -130 in the last time they were supposed to fight IIRC.

[SPX]

Are you betting on Massenzio?

And I think Phan's line will come down.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I bet him..I think he should be like -130

[SPX]

This is Cantwell's comeback fight.

[poopoo333]

This is Cantwell's comeback fight.

I hope it goes as well as Jardine's comeback fight against Hamill and Prangley.

[SPX]

And I hope you get an in-grown toenail.

[poopoo333]

And I hope you get an in-grown toenail.

I hope you sit on a thumb tac you fucking fucker

[Vandelay]

stipe's line is a joke

[Vandelay]

just rewatched aldo vs hominick and one judge somehow gave Aldo rd 5. and for a final score of 50-43

[Ludo]

Using that logic, he should have been the biggest LW fighter on the planet since he once fought at MW.

That would be Joe Riggs. He competed at heavyweight once upon a time and dropped over a hundred pounds to fight at 155.

But seriously. It is well documented that Kenny cut from around the 175-180lb range for Lightweight. I don't see him all of a sudden dropping mass to be that much smaller overall. His cut to 145 looked horrendous, and I'm sure he tried to ease the transition with some mass dropping but how much could he really cut down?

[SPX]

But seriously. It is well documented that Kenny cut from around the 175-180lb range for Lightweight. I don't see him all of a sudden dropping mass to be that much smaller overall.


This is acting like we just haven't seen Florian at FW.

Florian at 145 lbs? What would that look like?!

We KNOW what it would look like . . . and he looks noticeably different than he did at LW.

I personally thought that he looked quite fragile.

[Ludo]

This is acting like we just haven't seen Florian at FW.

Florian at 145 lbs? What would that look like?!

We KNOW what it would look like . . . and he looks noticeably different than he did at LW.

I personally thought that he looked quite fragile.

Yeah, he looks severely emaciated. The point I was trying to make is he didn't all of a sudden become a drastically smaller person just because he cut ten more pounds in weight.

[SPX]

He became smaller enough to look smaller, which means that he lost mass, not just water. So he's physically smaller. About as small as Aldo.

[edman5555]

Aldo has bigger muscles. Kenny has bigger reach.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to bet ALL those above parlays. I will also parlay Maynard individually with each guy for a unit each.

Are you most confident with Maia?

Yeah, I really don't see how Santiago beats him. Maia's standup is better, his takedowns are better, and his groung game is better. Santiago is quite the submission ace himself, so I doubt Maia subs him, I think it will look like the Maia-Miranda fight.

I did Maia/Guillard and I am looking at Maia/Simpson now too...

Too many chioces. Cards like these where there are a buch of strong favorites are where I usually make the most.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to bet ALL those above parlays. I will also parlay Maynard individually with each guy for a unit each.

Are you most confident with Maia?

Too many chioces. Cards like these where there are a buch of strong favorites are where I usually make the most. But the hard part is narrowing it down. You don't want to miss out, but on the other hand, you have to limit your exposure, because one loss can wipe out the gains of the other guys. I am just trying to figure out which one is the least likely to lose. I feel it is Maia because he is consistently good (save the Marq fight).

Guillard has all the tools to dominate that fight, but he has rocks in his head and he has moments of idiocy. I mean, if he is back on crack or whatever it was...
Sonnen has the submission issue and Stann has a habit of knocking guys out that have never been rattled before.
Aldo has the weight cut question.
Simpson has conditioning problems.
Pettis is facing a guy with big power with a history of catching technically superior guys.

I don't think Schaefer is the guy to take advantage of a conditioning/age issue with Simpson. He would probably have to take him down to take advantage of it, and I think Simpson would have to be in Shane Carwin territory to get taken down by Schaefer. So I am thinking about Maia/Simpson for that reason.

I already made the Guillard bet, but I did hedge the parlay with Lauzon by submission.

[edman5555]

Maybe I will join you on Maia.

[poopoo333]

I grabbed Maia @-235 last night. I will probably parlay Aldo/Phan.

[Vandelay]

any1 else having trouble logging into 5dimes?

[edman5555]

don't scare me. FBI FBI FBI

[poopoo333]

Works for me.

[MMA_scientist]

No trouble with 5d on my end either

[Vandelay]

I keep gettin this message: The page cannot be displayed because an internal server error has occurred.

[Vandelay]

Nevermind, just retyped my password and it worked for some reason.

[poopoo333]

I keep gettin this message: The page cannot be displayed because an internal server error has occurred.

Try retyping your password.

[Mr. IWS]

hostgatornigga.jpg

[SPX]

Back up in your ass with the resurrection.

[Luke]

I keep gettin this message: The page cannot be displayed because an internal server error has occurred.

did you try retyping your password in?

[Thewisemann]

I just dont see a way for him to win except maybe a wall and stall victory. Aldo is gonna pummel him with leg kicks and i believe he will knock Florian out. I believe Aldo was sick vs Hominick. I dont think this will be going to the ground much, and Aldo is just plain better standing. And Nunes dropped Florian twice.

[edman5555]

I just dont see a way for him to win except maybe a wall and stall victory. Aldo is gonna pummel him with leg kicks and i believe he will knock Florian out. I believe Aldo was sick vs Hominick. I dont think this will be going to the ground much, and Aldo is just plain better standing. And Nunes dropped Florian twice.

alright, did he really drop florian twice? I have been drunk a lot for the past couple of months.

[edman5555]

wiseman, im counting on you for guidance.

[SPX]

alright, did he really drop florian twice? I have been drunk a lot for the past couple of months.

Yes.