9-3-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-21.0) 44 Utah St. 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 03-Sep-11
Auburn was 14-0 and won the National Championship last season but most expect the Tigers to struggle to win 6 or 7 games with just 6 total returning starters and the loss of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Cam Newton. Auburn will certainly be worse offensively without Newton, who averaged an astounding 8.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) while also running for 1625 yards on 241 runs. There has never been a quarterback that had a better combination of passing and running than Cam Newton had last season and the offense will digress in 2011. However, Auburn was very good offensively in 2009 without Newton (0.9 yards per play better than average and 33.3 points per game) and this year’s attack should be better than the ’09 version, which was the first under offensive guru Gus Malzahn. New quarterback Barrett Trotter should post good numbers and the rushing attack, while not as good without Newton’s contributions, will still be among the best in the nation with running backs Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb, who combined for 1903 yards at 6.9 ypr last season. Auburn may not have the best offense in the nation this season (as I rated them last season) but they should still have about the 10th best attack (I rate their attack 12th heading into the season) thanks to very good talent and a great scheme. That unit should certainly roll up the yards and points today against a bad Utah State defense that allowed 6.3 yards per play last season (against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and could be worse this season with a less experienced unit and the absence of last year’s best defender, CB Curtis Marsh (a 3rd round NFL draft pick). Auburn was a favorite of 14 points or more 6 times in coach Gene Chizik’s first two seasons and the Tigers averaged 55 points in those 6 games, including 166 points in 3 games in 2009 (before Cam Newton).

Auburn’s defense allowed a mediocre 5.5 yards per play last season against FBS teams, but that’s not bad considering that they faced teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense was better than people thought last year, but it won’t be as good this season with just 3 returning starters and the loss of Lombardi Award DT Nick Fairley, who registered 11.5 sacks and 12.5 additional tackles for loss. There is a lot of young talent on this edition of the Tigers’ defense but there is also a lot of inexperience and I rate Auburn’s defense at just 0.3 yppl better than average. Utah State had a down year offensively last season after racking up 439 yards and 29.1 points per game in coach Gary Anderson’s first season in 2009. The major difference was the absence of RB Robert Turbin, who missed last season after running for 1296 yards at 6.3 ypr in ’09. Utah State is breaking in a new quarterback, who will probably be a bit below average despite a solid receiving corps, but the Aggies have an experienced offensive line and 3 good running backs – led by Turbin, who is recovered from his injury. I project Utah State with 336 yards at a decent 4.9 yards per play, but I also project Auburn to rack up 532 yards at 7.5 yppl and the Tigers may have a chip on their shoulders given all the doubters that think they were only as good as Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. The only thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is a possible look ahead to their conference opener with Mississippi State next week, but I think the Tigers will be focused on proving a point this week. I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion.


Strong Opinion
USC (-23.0) 42 Minnesota 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 03-Sep-11
Former Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill takes over a Minnesota team that was just 3-9 last season thanks to a dreadful defense (32.3 points at 6.6 yppl vs 5.7) that returned just 1 starter from a sub-par 2009 stop unit. The Gophers were actually decent offensively in 2010 (5.2 vs 5.2) and I think they’ll be a bit better despite losing 4 year starting quarterback Adam Weber. MarQueis Gray takes over as the signal caller after spending last season as the team’s #2 receiver. There is no doubt that Gray is a good athlete that should add a good running element to the position, but he passing ability is questionable at best. Gray only played one full season at quarterback in high school and completed just 73 of his 140 passes that year (just 52%) and he’s completed just 8 of 23 passes in his college career while. Gray also spent all of last season as a receiver rather than getting experience at quarterback, so it’s not too likely that Gray will be able to lead the offense with his arm. Of course, Kill prefers a run-oriented attack and he had success with that style of play at Northern Illinois. However, the Northern Illinois offense struggled some in Kill’s first season averaging a modest 4.7 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) while quarterback Chandler Harnish completed just 56% of his passes. Harnish did become a very good passer and I don’t expect that of Gray, so I doubt he’ll be able to complete even 56% of his passes like Harnish did in Kill’s first season at NIU in 2008. I expect Gray to complete about 52% of his passes and it could be worse given that he completed only 52% in high school. Gray’s running ability should lead to a pretty good rushing attack but I rate the Gophers’ offense at 0.2 worse than average this season after being average last season. The Gophers’ new look attack takes on what should be a much improved USC defense. The Trojans gave up an uncharacteristic 6.0 yards per play and 26.7 points last season (against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl and average 30.1 points per game against an average defensive team), but an average defense is not what was expected from famed defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and the talented recruits he inherited last season. Kiffin’s defense is very complicated and hard to learn but the biggest problem with USC’s defense last season was the poor tackling, which stemmed from the absence of tackling drills in August. Head coach Lane Kiffin had a shortage of scholarship players heading into last season due to NCAA sanctions and he chose not to have tackling during fall camp prior to the season. That certainly showed in all the missed tackles and lack of aggressiveness that the Trojans showed last season. The staff has learned from their error and concentrated on improving the tackling this past month of camp while also simplifying the defense a bit. Those changes, in combination with a more experienced defense that is in the 2nd season of the system, should result in a much improved defense this season. USC certainly has one of the better offensive units in the nation and that unit, which should be about a yard per play better than average, was limited to a modest 5.6 yppl over 352 plays in 3 scrimmages the past few weeks. I rate USC’s defense at 0.5 yppl better than average heading into this season but they could be even better than that if the scrimmages are any indication. USC has had some problems with spread running attacks in the recent past, but Minnesota is not Oregon and the Trojans’ defensive line should dominate the inexperienced Gophers’ front wall that is learning a new system. I don’t think Minnesota will be able to run well enough to move the ball without some key 3rd down pass completions from Gray and I don’t think Gray is good enough to complete those passes.

USC’s offense averaged 6.1 yards per play last season (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and that unit was 1.2 yppl better than average with quarterback Matt Barkley under center. I expect Barkley to be just as good this season as he was last year (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.5 yppp to an average QB) and the rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play last season against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp) will still be very good without suspended RB Marc Tyler (USC is always loaded at tailback) and just 2 offensive linemen returning. The Trojans prolific attack should be able to score with ease against a sub-par Minnesota defense. The Gophers’ defense was horrible last season, allowing 6.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team, but that unit goes from very inexperienced (1 returning starter last season) to very experienced with 8 returning starters and the return of star FS Kim Royston, who missed last season with an injury. The defensive front should be pretty solid against the run but there are no proven pass rushers to help a questionable secondary (just 9 sacks as a team last season, which was worst in the nation). The pass defense should be much improved but still bad by Big 10 standards and worse than average on a national scale. Matt Barkley should have a lot of time to find his dangerous receivers given Minnesota’s poor pass rush, so I expect Barkley to have a huge day through the air while I project the USC running back to average close to 6 yards per run.

USC has a huge edge with their great offense over a still sub-par Gophers’ defense and the Trojans’ improved defense shouldn’t have too much trouble with Minnesota’s mediocre attack. My ratings favor USC by 26 points and I’m pretty sure the Trojans will be amped up to get the bad taste of last season out of their mouth. In addition to the line value and motivation in favor of USC, the Gophers apply to a very negative 2-18-1 ATS week 1 indicator. I’ll consider USC a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.


Strong Opinion
NORTHERN ILL (-10.0) 35 Army 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 03-Sep-11
Army made it back to a bowl game last season for the first time in 14 years but the Black Knights were not that good last season, benefitting from a +16 turnover margin that helped mask a team that was out-gained by 4.9 yards per play to 6.1 yppl against FBS teams despite facing a schedule of teams that would be out-gained by 0.5 yppl be an average team. I expect Army to be positive in turnover margin because of the way that they play, but they aren’t likely to be close to +16 in that department and the Knights will probably be even worse from the line of scrimmage this season. Army should be about the same offensively with the return of the key skill players making up for the loss of 4 offensive line starters. Defensively is where the Cadets are likely to slip, as Army loses their all-time leader in career tackles for loss in DE Josh McNary, whose 10 sacks last season were 8 more than anyone else on the team. Army also will be without well rounded LB Stephen Anderson, who led the team in tackles, had 12 total tackles for loss and defended 7 passes last season (a lot for a LB). Army won’t be as good from the line of scrimmage and they certainly aren’t likely to be +16 in turnover margin, so this could be a tough year for 3rd year coach Rich Ellerson.

Northern Illinois also had the benefit of turnovers last season (+11) but the Huskies were a legitimately good team that rated at 0.9 yards per play better than average offensively and just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (pretty good for a MAC team). The Huskies have a new head coach in former Wisconsin assistant Dave Doern and they probably will regress some on offense even with 8 returning starters, including 1st Team All-MAC QB Chandler Harnish, due to learning a new system. Doern would like to continue to run the ball and the Huskies should have success doing so with all 5 of last year’s starting offensive linemen returning to open holes for a good set of backs. Harnisch completes a very good offense and he should have no trouble picking up a new offense given his good accuracy (65% completions last season and only 5 interceptions) and experience (3 years as a starter). Northern Illinois will still be very good offensively and they should have no trouble moving the ball on Army in this game.

The questions for the Huskies are on the defensive side of the ball, where just 2 of last year’s starter return. Northern Illinois was decent defensively in 2009 with just 3 returning starters (0.5 yppl worse than average) but I rate the Huskies’ stop unit at 0.8 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Army’s offense was 0.9 yppl worse than average last season and should be about the same this year, so it will be tough for the Cadets to keep up with the potent Huskies on the scoreboard. I’ll consider Northern Illinois a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

burns main event
georgia

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB
2* West Virginia -24

Strong Opinions
N Texas +14
Idaho -6
SMU +17

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets and Washington Nationals 'under' the total.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Southern Miss, as La Tech falls into a super 171-104 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenging teams in season-opening games.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Warriors minus the points over Colorado, as Hawaii falls into a 69.3% season-opening system of mine.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over LSU. Last year, we were on the Oregon Ducks right from the start, and played them at 30-1 to win the National Championship.

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Millionaire -Hawaii
Billionaire -Boise St
No LImit. Houston

[Mr. IWS]

Root Pinnacle

LSU

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns 10 Star: UNDER in Alabama/Kent St.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Big Easy

Texas