9-12-11

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ATS Lock Blitz Newsletter from Maryland

New England is 3-1 ATS L4 on the road in series.

Last year: New England (pk/48) beat Miami on the road, 41-14 and at home, (-4.5/44) 38-7. The Pats owned the Dolphins last year and they should be a very good team again. Only question is at wide receiver, where Wes Welker (86 for 848), Chad Ochocinco (67 for 831yds) and Deion Branch (61 for 818) are not explosive-type playmakers anymore. They’ll rely more on their running game and outstanding tight ends. Miami does add a playmaker in Reggie Bush to help out Chad Henne (3301yds, 15, 19), who had a bad regular season but was very good in the preseason.

New England over Miami 34-27


Oakland is 3-0 ATS L3 in series and 5-0 ATS L5 on the road in series.

Last year: Oakland (-8/41.5) over Denver 39-23 at home and beat
Denver (+7/42) on the road, 59-14. Oakland was a steady 8-8 last season but they
lose star CB Nnamdi Asomugah to a pass defense that allowed just 189 yards per game in the air. The run defense was a different story (4.5ypc allowed). John Fox takes over in Denver to a team that should be improved some with the addition of NT Brodrick Bunkley and rookie LB Von Miller and SS Rahim Moore. QB Kyle Orton doesn’t have a lot of weapons though Brandon Lloyd (77 for 1,448yds, 11TDs) is coming off a huge season.

Denver over Oakland 28-24


MLB Best Bet: Fla/Atl Under

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Raiders at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

THE STORY: Most of the offseason talk surrounding the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders centered on their respective quarterbacks. No surprise there, except in both cases the quarterbacks in question are not expected to be contributors this season.

Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor will be watching from the sideline when Denver opens the season by hosting Oakland in an AFC West matchup on Monday night. Of more consequence, each team will feature new head coaches (John Fox for the Broncos and Hue Jackson for the Raiders) amid renewed optimism that both can challenge for the division crown.

TV: ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2010: 4-12, 4th, AFC West): Ex-Carolina Panthers coach Fox was brought in to help plug a sieve defense that allowed an NFL-high 471 points last season. Kyle Orton, the subject of major trade rumors in the offseason, returns as the starter after throwing for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs in 13 games last season. Although Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 receiving yards, expect a more balanced offense with Willis McGahee joining former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. LB Von Miller was drafted No. 2 overall to bolster the defense, and the pass rush in particular.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2010: 8-8, 3rd AFC West): Oakland ended a string of seven straight seasons with double-digits losses, but it couldn’t save head coach Tom Cable’s job. The Raiders went 6-0 against the division, helped in large part by a breakout season from RB Darren McFadden, who finally lived up to his billing as a No. 4 overall pick and was second overall in the league with 128.0 yards from scrimmage per game. With a stable of speedy, young receivers, QB Jason Campbell (2,387 yards, 13 TDs) may be asked to do more in his second season with the Raiders.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Raiders annihilated the Broncos in two meetings last season, outscoring them 98-37. That included a 59-31 thrashing in which McFadden romped for four touchdowns.

2. Denver usually starts the season well, posting an AFC-best 32-18-1 mark in season openers, including winning 16 of the last 22. The Broncos also have won 11 consecutive home games on Kickoff Weekend.

3. In their glory days under owner Al Davis, the Raiders were known as the Kings of Monday Night. Not anymore. Oakland has lost 11 straight games in prime time since beating Denver in November 2008.

TRENDS:

The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents but 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.

The Broncos are 11-25-2 ATS in their last 38 home games and 8-26-1 in their last 35 games as favorites.

The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This game opened as a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks back in early August but got bet up to Broncos -3. The game is still at Denver by a field goal but the juice is starting to climb (-125 on Sunday afternoon). We could see the line close with Oakland getting 3.5 points.

The total sits at 40.5 and has been around that numbers since oddsmakers first opened the over/under line.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. One of the league’s best home-field advantages comes into play as Fox wins his debut – narrowly – and Denver avenges a pair of humbling beatings by Oakland last season.

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Patriots at Dolphins: What Bettors Need to Know


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7, 45.5)

THE STORY: Bill Belichick is the master of the poker face and non-disclosure, but the coach of the New England Patriots made no secret of his strategy this offseason: He’s all in.

Following a second straight home playoff loss, Belichick brought in a bevy of high-profile veterans – most notably Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth – in a shocking pair of trades following the lockout.

Even for a franchise that has a reputation of being a halfway house for malcontent stars (see: Randy Moss and Corey Dillon), those acquisitions scream out that nothing less than another Super Bowl ring will satisfy Belichick. New England’s quest begins Monday night at AFC East rival Miami.

TV: ESPN, 7 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2010: 7-9, 3rd, AFC East): Miami had its own share of offseason drama. QB Chad Henne remains the starter after a much-publicized failed trade for Denver’s Kyle Orton, and star WR Brandon Marshall was stabbed in the abdomen (allegedly by his wife) and later revealed that he suffers from borderline personality disorder.

The Dolphins have their own personality issues as a team, particularly a stunning inability to win at home (1-7) last season. The RB tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams was scuttled in favor of ex-Saint Reggie Bush and second-round rookie draft pick Daniel Thomas.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2010: 14-2, 1st, AFC East): Behind unanimous MVP selection Tom Brady, New England was an offensive juggernaut last season, running up a league-high 518 points before being run out of the playoffs by the Jets.

Belichick overhauled a defense that couldn’t sniff a QB by bringing in the massive Haynesworth along with pass rushers Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter.
Ochocinco did not make much of an impression in preseason as he tries to adjust to an offense that spreads the ball around. That Patriots drafted RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to back up 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady won his second MVP award after throwing 36 touchdowns against only four interceptions last season. He set an NFL record with a streak of 335 completions without an interception. The last time he was picked off in the regular season was against Baltimore on Oct. 17, 2010.

2. Miami’s Cameron Wake was second in the AFC with 14 sacks last season, while new arrival Bush leads all NFL running backs with 294 receptions since 2006.

3. The Patriots swept the Dolphins in lopsided fashion last season, outscoring them 79-21.

TRENDS:

The Pats are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as road favorites and 44-21-3 ATS in their last 68 road games.

The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when getting points but 17-45-1 ATS in their last 63 home games.

The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The spread opened in late June with the Patriots listed as 4-point road favorites. The number has been bet up to Pats -7. The total is staying put around 45.

PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20. New England brings its talents to South Beach and will get a tougher-than-expected matchup from a gritty Miami defense in stifling heat.

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The Goldsheet

KEY RELEASES

DETROIT by 9 over Tampa Bay

DENVER by 14 over Oakland (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the New England-Miami game (Monday)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12


OVER THE TOTAL *New England 35 - MIAMI 20—Without the hard- hitting runs of Ronnie Brown & Rickie Williams, Miami coach Tony Sparano says the Dolphins can no longer “crawl” down the field with a ball-control offense. Instead, with the multi-talented Reggie Bush available to position strategically, Miami intends to attack this season, spreading the field, using more shotgun and more first-down passes. The question is whether Dolphin QB Chad Henne (15 TDs, 19 ints. LY) is the guy to execute such a system, especially in a throwing contest with Tom Brady. It will be interesting to see whether the Pats’ new veteran pass rushers of Andre Carter, Sean Ellis & Albert Haynesworth can give a boost to a Patriot defense that was 30th vs. the pass LY and last on third down (allowing 47% conversions), although most foes were playing from behind early in 2010. N.E. “over” 15 of last 18. CABLE TV—ESPN


*DENVER 30 - Oakland 16—The Raiders hammered the Josh McDaniels Broncos by a combined score of 98-37 LY, rushing for a total of 592 yards. With Darren McFadden (sat out the preseason with a fractured orbital bone) expected back for the Silver & Black, Oakland is hoping to do more of the same. However, there’s a new era beginning in Denver, with players reportedly happy that veteran HC John Fox has installed a little smashmouth football in the Mile High City. The Broncos were 31st vs. the run last season, but it should be noted that the Raiders themselves have ranked 31, 31, 29 & 29 the L4Ys. Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks in 2009) is back for the Denver defense and is now aided by star rookie LB Von Miller. Oakland secondary not the same without CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and the offense will miss steady veterans LG Robert Gallery & TE Zach Miller. TV—ESPN

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Rick Needham

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Monday September 12th, 2011 7:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 1 Sun Life Stadium Miami, Florida

Point Spread: NE -7/MIA 7
Over/Under Total: 45

The Miami Dolphins will have the luxury of hosting the first Monday Night Football Game of the new NFL season when they host the New England Patriots at FBZ Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins look to rebound after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2010. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they will start their season off against one of the best teams in the NFL by way of the New England Patriots. In fact, the Patriots dominated their AFC East rivals in 2010 by outscoring Miami 79-21 combined in their two meetings. This season the Patriots have added more talent on both sides of the ball and looked poised to make a run at another AFC Championship.

New England added two big names on both sides of the ball over the off-season despite both players having well-known character issues. On offense, the Patriots signed WR Chad Ochocinco in hopes to find another weapon for QB Tom Brady. It has been stated that Ochocinco's work ethic has declined over the past few years, which reflect his numbers on the field. However, he is still a great athlete that can be a big time player in the Patriots' offense. If Ochocinco can stay focused, there is not any reason to expect that he will not be a big contributor for the offense. Fortunately for Ochocinco, he will not have to carry the offense along in the receiving game like he has with some of his prior teams. WR Wes Welker was the team's leading receiver last season with 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 scores. Considering the fact Welker is healthier this season, he should be primed for an even better season. If both guys stay healthy, this should be an even more dangerous Patriots offense in 2011.

Despite little receiving help in 2010, QB Tom Brady still posted dominant numbers. Brady completed 66% passing for 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It's hard to believe that Brady could improve on those numbers from last season, but it is also very possible if the receiving core stays healthy. As good as the Patriots are on offense; Coach Belichick hopes they will also be on the defensive side of the ball. New England was inconsistent in 2010 giving up over 360 yards per game in a defense that ranked 25th overall. This season New England added troubled DT Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. Haynesworth's previous troubles have been well documented, but he is still one of the most dominating forces among the defensive front in the NFL when he wants to be. Sure Haynesworth has been a nuisance in the past, but this could be his last opportunity to play football as well. Considering the fact Haynesworth is not making ridiculous amounts of FBZ money any longer by sitting on the bench, I really expect him to come out and be a force defensively. With the help of some additional depth among the defensive front, the Patriots should be an improved bunch in 2011 overall.

Miami on the other hand is a team with a lot more questions entering 2011. QB Chad Henne took over the starting job in 2010, but was plagued by inconsistency completing 61% for 3,301 yards with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In fact, it was the 2nd straight season that Henne finished the year with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. This season Henne will again be the starter in possibly what will be his make or break year for the Dolphins.

In the receiving game, the Dolphins are led by WR Brandon Marshall who is among the best receivers in the NFL. In 2010, Marshall caught 86 passes for 1,014 yards with 3 touchdowns. While those numbers are not staggering, they are pretty solid if you consider how much Miami struggled in the passing game. Marshall is a guy that can potentially lead this Miami team with big play ability if someone (Henne) can just get him the ball on a consistent basis. One of the bigger questions for the Miami offense in 2011 will be the search for a rushing game. Both starting running backs from 2010 in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown departed from the team over the off-season. The Dolphins did acquire running back Reggie Bush from New Orleans. However, Bush has yet to prove that he can be an every down back in the NFL. Bush has had some brilliant moments catching passes out of the backfield during his tenure with the Saints, but has yet to prove he can be a reliable every down threat. If Bush fails to yield the threat of a rushing game, it will make things even more difficult for the struggling Henne at quarterback. Defensively, the Dolphins return the majority of a group that ranked 6th overall last season giving up only 309 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is loaded with talent. Leading the group is LB Cameron Wake. Wake recorded the 2nd most sacks in the NFL last season with 14 total while earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Most believe the defense will be every bit as solid this season as they gained more experience over the off-season. Therefore, the Miami offense's ability to score points will likely be the determining factor in deciding if the Dolphins have a successful season.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The simple fact here is the Dolphins are retracting and the Patriots are progressing from a team stand point. The Patriots appear to have an offense that could virtually become unstoppable this season and it is hard to believe that an offense as inconsistent as Miami will be able to keep pace. Therefore, I think this is another New England blowout just like their last 2 meetings over Miami. I'll TAKE NEW ENGLAND TO WIN AND COVER!

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JACK HOWARD

10* New England -7

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Erin Rynning

AFC GOY 20* Miami

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RICHIE CARRERA

New England -7 over MIAMI 10 Dimes

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JOHN HARRISON

9-12-11 New England Patriots -6.5 (20 UNITS)

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Mighty Quinn

Miami
Raiders

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Todays Picks

Miami Dolphins +7

Oakland Raiders +3

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

2* Miami

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Sniperpicks

5* patsover45.5

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DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

PATRIOTS -7 at dolphins
BRONCOS -3 vs raiders

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Vegas Vic/Philadelphia Daily News

Dolphins

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POINTWISE PHONES:

2* Oakland

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INDIAN COWBOY

4* NFL: New England/Miami Total OVER

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Doc sports

3* denver broncos over 40

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DCI

New England 29, MIAMI 14
Oakland 32, DENVER 25

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Ace-Ace

Take #479 New England (-7) over Miami (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 12)

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Dave Essler

2* Over NE/Miami

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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 0-0

3% DENVER –3 No higher than -3


New England –6.5 MIAMI 46

NE averaged 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They allowed 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.

Miami averaged just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allowed 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by just one point and predict about 48 points.

NE won here last year 41-14 but they were actually out played from the line of scrimmage. Special teams and turnovers did them in. As good as the Miami defense was last year, they have now allowed at least 21 points in their last nine home games against teams with above average offenses, including at least 27 points in seven of those nine games. Miami is also looking to throw the ball more this year, which means this game has a chance to be higher scoring than “they” think. NEW ENGLAND 30 MIAMI 23

DENVER –3 Oakland 40.5

Oakland averaged a whopping 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr last year. They averaged just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl.

Denver averaged 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl.

Denver qualifies in week one situations, which are 61-22-3 and 46-16-5. Numbers favor Oakland by two points before accounting for the situations and predict about 50 points.

Denver was blown out twice last year by Oakland, who literally ran roughshod over them in both games. The Broncos have some injuries in the interior of their defensive line but also get back their best player, Elmis Dumervil and draft choices Von Miller and Rahim Moore to improve the defense.

Oakland lost their best defensive player in Nnamdi Asomugha and they are without their best offensive player TE Zach Miller who moved on to Seattle.

This is more of a play against the Raiders and based on a Denver team which should be improved. The value isn’t there but the situations are very strong and they out weigh the value. DENVER 30 OAKLAND 20

[timbob]

Patriots at Dolphins: Who'll cover the spread?

We’ve got a double-header for the first edition of Monday Night Football this season but we’re zeroing on the first game in this week’s debate.

Russ Loede from PatriotsGab.com tells us why New England is the right play while Kevin Nogle from ThePhinsider.com argues in favor of the home underdog.

WHY THE PATRIOTS COVER

Henne without run game

For the Dolphins to function, they have to run the football and control the clock against the Patriots. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury and I don't believe the Fish can show New England a balanced offensive attack with Reggie Bush and Larry “I can’t believe I’m not retired” Johnson running the ball.

Bill Belichick, is going to have fun playing games with the erratic and mistake-prone Chad Henne knowing the ground game is absent.

Devin McCourty

A budding star at cornerback, the second-year pro from Rutgers will be asked to shadow the Dolphins best playmaker; Brandon Marshall. McCourty will shut down Marshall and take away Miami’s best offensive weapon in the process.

Brady's quick release

Cameron Wake is a force to be reckoned with but the Pats can limit the pass rusher because of Brady's precise pocket presence. The 2010 NFL MVP will operate fully aware of Wake's presence and ability to change a game.

Fortunately, the scintillating signal caller has a vast array of intermediate weapons to sling the rock to before Cam reaches him. New England’s offense is filled with players who can find space and get open quickly. Mismatches will abound and Brady and the Patriots will find ways to pick apart the Dolphins’ pass defense.

WHY THE DOLPHINS COVER THE SPREAD

Dolphins Defense

For some reason, Miami's sixth ranked defense from last season has been completely forgotten at the start of this year - and all the Dolphins did was get better.

They have the most incredibly deep defensive line I have ever seen. Jared Odrick, last season's first round draft choice who sat out the year on IR, is now the third string right defensive end behind Randy Starks and Phillip Merling - yet Ordick is seen as a starting caliber defensive end.

Then there's the emergence of Cameron Wake as an elite pass rusher. With his 14 sacks last year and Pro Bowl selection, you would think people would respect the Dolphins' ability to get to the quarterback, but for some reason, they aren't.

And finally, our cornerbacks are amazing. They may not become the "best tandem in the NFL," as Vontae Davis declared earlier this preseason, but they (Davis and Sean Smith) are going to be right there with the best.

This defense is going to be scary, and people just don't realize it yet.

New Offense

Last year, the Dolphins ran an erratic offense. Every time they got into a rhythm, the offensive coordinator Dan Henning would call a random play that would kill the drive. This year, with offensive coordinator Brain Daboll, things appear to be different.

Everyone in Miami is talking about how the offense is "attacking" and "explosive." In 2008, the Dolphins unleashed the Wildcat formation on the Patriots and decimated them with it. The Dolphins will look to establish this new offense in much the same way.

Chad Henne

We all know the Dolphins were talking with the Denver Broncos about acquiring quarterback Kyle Orton. But, that didn't happen, so everyone assumes Miami is a mess behind center.

But, Chad Henne hasn't played like a mess. He actually looked good this preseason and he could be the guy who finally solidifies the QB position in Miami.

Daboll's offense allows Henne to actually audible to any play necessary, instead of just a one play "check with me" option like last year, which will give Henne some needed freedom.

In today's NFL, the success of first year starters like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have people expecting a rookie to always come in and immediately demonstrate greatness. We forget that Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady all sat and developed before getting on to the field. Chad Henne got one year under Chad Pennington before he was made the starter.

Now, in his third year as that starter, Henne appears ready to actually take the reins.

[timbob]

Hot lines: Monday’s best MLB bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (+160, 7.5)

Roy Oswalt can probably expect a warm welcome from Houston Astros fans Monday as he makes his first return to Houston since last summer’s deal that sent him to Philly. After all, it’s not like Astros supporters have much else to cheer about.

And maybe this is the kind of game that’ll finally get Oswalt going. He didn’t allow a hit through six innings last week in a 3-2 win over the Braves.

“Tonight I felt pretty strong the whole game,” Oswalt told reporters after the game. “Two days ago I felt like my arm strength is coming back a little more. We’ve worked on my mechanics a little bit, freed me up to get on top of the ball. It felt like I could place my fastball a little bit better.”

You have to think he’ll put on a good show Monday in Texas. We don’t normally play chalk this high, but it’s probably worth it in this spot.

Pick: Phillies

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8.5)

The Detroit Tigers extended their winning streak to nine games by completing a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.

Doug Fister threw seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits as the Tigers slipped by the Twins 2-1 to extend the winning streak, which is the longest in franchise history since the club won nine straight on its way to the 1984 World Series title.

Now the Tigers have a chance to all but lock up their first division title since 1987 with three games against the White Sox. Detroit swept a three-game set with the White Sox last week by putting 35 combined runs on the board.

The Tigers send Rick Porcello to the mound and he has looked good over his last three outings while the club averaged 7.7 runs of support for him.

Pick: Tigers

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Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Streaking

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (14-11, 3.15 ERA)

King Felix is on another one of his hot streaks, having won each of his last three starts while allowing just three runs over that span. He has struck out 26 batters during the streak and is coming off consecutive 2-1 wins. He went eight innings last week against the Angels before telling manager Eric Wedge he was done for the night.

"I can't lie, I was a little tired in the end,'' Hernandez told reporters. "He asked me. And I've got to be honest. I said 'I'm going to be honest, we've got to win this game.' ''

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (13-8, 4.87 ERA)

The Tigers have won four straight with Porcello on the mound and he has allowed just one run in two of his last three outings. Right now he really has his sinker going, which induced 13 ground-ball outs in a 10-1 win at Cleveland last week.

"He kept the ball on the ground, and that’s a big thing for him,” manager Jim Leyland said of Porcello.” That usually tells you that he’s got the ball darting around a little bit with pretty late movement and they’re mis-hitting the ball a little bit."

Slumping

Dontrelle Willis, Cincinnati Reds (0-5, 4.21 ERA)

Willis heads into Monday’s tilt with the Cubs still searching for his first win of the season in his 12th start. Despite the winless drought, Willis hasn’t been terrible. His major issue lately is his control after walking five batters in each of his last three outings. Willis gave up all four runs in a 4-3 loss to the Cubs last week.

Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (5-12, 5.37 ERA)

Volstad has dropped his last four decisions and the Marlins have lost each of his last trips to the hill, but he can’t take all the blame. The 6-foot-8 starter has allowed only two earned runs in each of his last two starts and hasn’t yielded more than four earned runs since a blowout loss to the Phillies in early July.

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Giants -145 over Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Patriots -7 over Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Giants -145 over Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Dolphins
Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Arizona +120 over the Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Monday, September 12

Hot pitchers
-- Cardinals won six of last seven Lohse starts.
-- Beachy is 4-0, 3.00 in his last eight starts.
-- Dickey is 3-0, 1.67 in his last four starts.
-- Former Astro Oswalt is 3-1, 3.71 in his last five starts. Former Phil Myers is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Lilly is 3-3, 2.70 in his last eight starts.
-- Giants won both Surkamp starts (1-0, 3.27). Harang has a 2.77 RA in his last four starts.

-- Britton is 3-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Pineiro is 1-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 1.57 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lincoln has a 2.50 RA in his last three starts.
-- Volstad is 0-4, 4.85 in his last five starts.
-- Detwiler is 1-5, 5.40 in his last six starts.
-- Lopez is 1-3, 5.16 in his last four starts. Willis is 0-3, 5.22 in his last five starts.
-- Saunders is 2-4, 5.62 in his last seven starts.

-- Niemann is 1-3, 7.33 in his last four starts.
-- Danks is 2-2, 5.08 in his last six starts.
-- Gonzalez is 3-6, 6.28 in his last nine starts.
-- Hughes is 0-1, 8.79 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Over is 18-9 in Pittsburgh's last 27 home games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Atlanta's last ten home games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Washington's last dozen road games.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Phillies' last ten road games.
-- Five of last seven Arizona road games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in San Diego's last eleven road games.

-- Over is 11-4 in Baltimore's last fifteen home games.
-- Over is 13-1-2 in Porcello's last sixteen starts.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Angels' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Seattle's last eleven home games.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals are 12-4 in their last sixteen games.
-- Marlins won six of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last seven games.
-- Arizona won 16 of its last 19 games. Dodgers won 15 of last 19.

-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games.
-- Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games. White Sox won six of their last nine home games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 in its last 12 home games. Angels won six of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 20 of their last 28 home games.
-- Braves lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 18 games. Mets lost three of four.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eleven road games. Cincinnati lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- San Diego lost 10 of its last 11 road games. Giants lost seven of their last ten home games.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five home games.
-- Bronx is 10-10 in its last 20 road games. Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.

[Mr. IWS]

Iron Horse

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

Denver finished last season at 4-12 SU and fired HC McDaniels, replacing him with John Fox. Fox will start by hosting Division rival Oakland, who crushed the Broncos in both meetings last season, 39-23 and 59-14, winning by 16 and 45 points! Oakland improved to 8-8 SU last season while sweeping their AFC West Division games, posting a 6-0 SU & ATS, against Denver, Kansas City and San Diego. The Raiders averaged 26 points per game last year and don't expect new Denver HC Fox to have the answers in his first game with the Broncos to stop an offense that scored 98 points on them during the last 2 meetings- Take the points with this explosive Raiders offense. 10* Play On Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI +7½ over New England

What is value? Value is getting more points than we should be or getting a bigger payout on the money line than we should be. Value often occurs when wagering against very popular teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Red Wings, Ohio State Buckeyes, Duke Blue Devils and many more. Value also occurs when public perception on a specific team is too high or too low and we’re surely going to see that in next week’s NFL lines after some serious blowouts in week one. Just because you’re getting value doesn’t mean you’re going to win but it’s the smart way to bet and over the long haul, you’re likely going to win more games than you lose. Enter the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The Patriots are among the most popular teams in the NFL while Miami is perceived as a weak football team. Miami may indeed turn out to be a weak club; time will tell. We understand that it’s hard to root for Chad Henne to outduel one of the best quarterbacks ever at the position in Tom Brady. But Wagering 101 teaches us that such sentiment inflates the number and that provides value on the less popular choice. Play: Miami +7½ (No bets).


DENVER –3½ over Oakland

While some are high on the Raiders this season, we see a team that has a rookie head coach working from a short pre-season, a 59% passer in Jason Campbell and a team that lost its best player - Nnamdi Asomugha- via free agency while doing nothing that would indicate improvement. One might also want to consider what Oakland did to Denver last season. In two games last year, the Raiders humiliated the Broncs by a combined score of 98-37. That’s not just a loss or a couple of losses. That’s serious disgrace and this is not the same Denver club as the one we saw last season. John Fox, a defensive minded coach, steps in and he’s been stressing defense and running the ball ever since he got here. Kyle Orton is very capable at the QB position and remains perhaps the most underappreciated QB in the game. Orton is sharp with his passes and he makes smart decisions, not bonehead decisions like some. The Broncos defense a season ago was non-existent but they’ll be a whole lot better this year with some good off-season signings and under the tutelage of Fox. Still, the public money is coming in on the Broncos and that has us a little nervous, thus we’ll back off on both games tonight and be happy with our 4-2 week 1 results. Play: Denver –3½ (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd
5* Denver
3* St Louis
3* Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

SB Professor
Monday's NFL pick:

7 PM EST
New England Patriots -6.5* (system recommends a 1/2 pt. buy in this situation)

10:15 PM EST
Oakland Raiders +3.5* (system recommends a 1/2 pt. buy in this situation)

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Marlins (+201),
Cubs (+146),
Cardinals (-125),
Yankees (+102),
Tigers (+108),
Nationals (+132).

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
The first leg of Monday Night Football’s nationally televised ESPN broadcast takes us to Sun Life Stadium for a good old fashioned AFC East throw down between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins; the early kick is slated for 7:00 ET.
Though the Patriots have won the division in each of the last two seasons, head coach Bill Belichick’s squad is still searching for that playoff win that has eluded them since that memorable 2007 season where they went undefeated up until the Super Bowl. In order to become better on both sides of the ball, upper management went out and inked WR Chad Ochocinco and DT Albert Haynesworth in the off-season to add to the team’s already impressive roster. Because of it, the Patriots are now the odds on favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +335; ahead of the Packers who check in with a +355 return. New England went 6-2 SU & ATS away from Gillette Stadium last season.
Since winning the AFC East in head coach Tony Sparano’s inaugural season as the franchise’s top dog back in 2008, the Dolphins have posted back-to-back 7-9 SU & 8-8 ATS seasons. QB play really hampered the offense in 2010 as did possessing a pair of aging backs in the backfield in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. This season, it’s out with the old and in with the new as RBs Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas will now take the hand-offs, with the offense hoping QB Chad Henne will start to limit his errant tosses and once again become a 3000 yard passer. With WRs Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Ryan Hartline, the offense should greatly improve upon its 17.1 PPG average from a year ago.
New England made a mockery of these team’s pair of battles a year ago by trouncing the Fins by an aggregate score of 79-21; the ‘over’ cashed in both contests. The road team has covered six of the L/8 overall in this rivalry with the ‘over’ holding a 5-3 advantage. New England has instilled confidence in its backers having covered 22 of the L/32 times it went off the board as a road favorite. A 44-21-3 ATS tally their L/68 away from Foxborough also shows how much the Pats make it a point to represent well away from home. On the flipside, Miami is 11-3 ATS its L/14 when dogged and 7-5 ATS its L/12 vs. divisional opposition. However, the Fins have gotten off to slow starts recently going 3-11-2 ATS their L/15 games played in the month of September, and they’ve also been woeful as hosts managing covers in just 17 of their L/63 games played in front of the hometown faithful.
PICK: NE/MIAMI OVER

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Monday

Play Atlanta (-215) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST

Atlanta pitcher, Brandon Beachy has won 2 consecutive games when pitching on a Monday and he is 7-2 in all games this season with an ERA of 3.29. Florida pitcher, Chris Volstad has lost 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents and he has also lost 3 consecutive games as an underdog of +150 or higher.

Play Philadelphia (-175) over Houston (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Cardinals -135

[Mr. IWS]

ATS WINNERS

4* OVER 45 - New England Patriots / Miami Dolphins

4* Oakland Raiders +3

3* OVER 40 - Oakland Raiders / Denver Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

For Monday, as we conclude Week 1 of the NFL season, 1000♦ Winner # 11 of 14 is the Denver Broncos

I also have a 500♦ Bonus MLB Best Bet going out late on the Yankees with Phil Hughes priced right around a pick

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Monday
15 dime play on the Broncos as the home fav

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel Sports
20* Underdog Game of the Year
Orioles +130

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bets

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7, 45.5)

In the first game of a double dip on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, NFL bettors will get their chance to sink their teeth into the clash at Sun Life Stadium between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

The Pats are the runaway favorites on the Super Bowl odds this year, as they are as low as +400 at some sportsbooks. They definitely do look to be locked and loaded after bringing in both DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco in the offseason. It hasn’t seemed to matter who is out there at wide receiver though, as QB Tom Brady has always made the best of every situation. You know if he stays healthy that Brady is good for over 4,000 passing yards and probably at least 30 scores on the season, and he has had a great history playing against these Dolphins, putting up some absolutely tremendous games. Last season alone, the Patriots scored a whopping 79 points in two games against Miami, with Brady throwing three scores in those two games. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis had two big games against the Dolphins last year as well, accounting for over 150 total yards on the ground and a pair of TDs in the two meetings. When you combine defense and special teams TDs, New England actually outscored the Dolphins’ entire team 28-21.

One game doesn’t make an entire 16 game season, but for Head Coach Tony Sparano and QB Chad Henne, this is clearly the biggest game that either one has partaken in. The Fins were blown out of the water by New England twice last year, and with both men literally just barely hanging on to their jobs, posting another 20+ point defeat at home in primetime won’t sit well with the hometown faithful. However, there are a lot more issues with the Dolphins than just the quarterback and the head coach. The running game is only going to really have RB Reggie Bush and RB Larry Johnson to work with in all likelihood, as RB Daniel Thomas, the rookie out of Kansas State, is in the doghouse and is injured. The defense is incredibly young as well, and though players like DE Koa Misi and some of the other young guns will get there eventually, it’s clear that this unit isn’t ready to shut down an offense like New England’s.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins Pick: That being said, this game is too important for the Dolphins to bet against them at this price. Getting a TD is a big, big number in the NFL, especially for a home team, and we’re going to take that score and hope for the best with Miami on MNF.

PICK: Dolphins +7

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (+160, 7.5)

Roy Oswalt can probably expect a warm welcome from Houston Astros fans Monday as he makes his first return to Houston since last summer’s deal that sent him to Philly. After all, it’s not like Astros supporters have much else to cheer about.

And maybe this is the kind of game that’ll finally get Oswalt going. He didn’t allow a hit through six innings last week in a 3-2 win over the Braves.

“Tonight I felt pretty strong the whole game,” Oswalt told reporters after the game. “Two days ago I felt like my arm strength is coming back a little more. We’ve worked on my mechanics a little bit, freed me up to get on top of the ball. It felt like I could place my fastball a little bit better.”

You have to think he’ll put on a good show Monday in Texas. We don’t normally play chalk this high, but it’s probably worth it in this spot.

PICK: Phillies


Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8.5)

The Detroit Tigers extended their winning streak to nine games by completing a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.

Doug Fister threw seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits as the Tigers slipped by the Twins 2-1 to extend the winning streak, which is the longest in franchise history since the club won nine straight on its way to the 1984 World Series title.

Now the Tigers have a chance to all but lock up their first division title since 1987 with three games against the White Sox. Detroit swept a three-game set with the White Sox last week by putting 35 combined runs on the board.

The Tigers send Rick Porcello to the mound and he has looked good over his last three outings while the club averaged 7.7 runs of support for him.

PICK: Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Denver

3* St Louis Cardinals

3* Tampa Bay Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Cook

7* Tigers +110

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Monday's Action
20 Dime AFC West Game of the Month is the late game tonight, and I am hitcheng my wagon to the Broncos minus the three points or so agaionst the Raiders.





10 Dime bonus selectoon is to lay the points with the visiting Patrriots as they give up right around a TD to the Miami Dolphins.

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ... My 60 Dime play is the late Monday night game. Take the Denver Broncos to cover againet the Oakland Raiders. In Las Vegas, the books had the Broncos a 3-point favoroite. The 30 Dime play is on the first conteot, take the over with the Dolphins and Patriots. In Las Vegas, the books have this game at 45 ½ or 46.

[Mr. IWS]

RANDY BRUCE

10 dimes Raiders/Broncos Over 41

Both teams have a better offense than the other team's defense. Look for Oakland's running game and Denver's passing attack to produce a high-scoring affair in this match-up between the two AFC West rivals. Good luck tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Super Sports Group

Chicago v. Cincinnati 7:10pm
8* PICK: Cubs ML +149 Game

Detroit v. Chicago :10pm
10* PICK: Tigers ML +102 Game Hidden Gem #1

Anaheim v. Oakland 10:05pm
10* PICK: Angels ML +128 Game Hidden Gem #2

San Diego v. San Fran 0:15pm
8* PICK: Padres ML +127 Game

[Mr. IWS]

Budin 25 dimer- Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Sam O´Connel

Play of the day

Oakland Raiders +3 +105

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe

3* Los Angeles Dodgers ML -155

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan

doble dime - New England Patriots -7

[Mr. IWS]

Gary Olshan

Patriots at Dolphins
Pick: Over 44.5

With Miami going with a more vertical attack this season, this game should go over the total. New England attack is simply loaded with weapons, and QB Brady should have field day in the ideal weather conditions in Miami. Dolphin QB Henne should have breakout season in 2011, and Patriot secondary can be burned with some deep balls.

[Mr. IWS]

The Duke's Sports

Oakland (+3') for 1.5 Units

The Raiders have had the Broncos' number at 8-2 ATS in this series, including the sweep last year. Sure, Denver's defense should be much better this year with new HC Fox overseeing the operation; however, the Raiders' offense, which improved dramatically last year with the now HC Hue Jackson, coordinating it, should continue to rack up points with added weaponry and in the second year of a successful system; consequently, that offensive stability overrides the new Broncos' defensive system input by Fox and company. Simply put: new overhauls with new personnel take time to implement and gell. The Raiders play well as a road dog (5-2 ATS) while Denver has had trouble at home (11-25-2 ATS). Raiders the call.

[Mr. IWS]

VikingSportsPlays
3* New England -7
2* New England/Miami under 45'

[Mr. IWS]

Blasscyk WINS

Game #1
New England (0-0) at Miami (0-0) 7:00 pm EST
BW Pick: 479 New England -7 (-105) *****5 UNITS***** (Bookmaker)
__________________________________________________ ________________________________________
Game #2
Oakland (0-0) at Denver (0-0) 10:15 pm EST
BW Pick: 481 Oakland OVER 40 (-110) *****5 UNITS***** (5 dimes)

[Mr. IWS]

Slick Action Sports

5* Denver Broncos -3

Play of the Day

5* Chicago White Sox ML -115

[Mr. IWS]

Bookie Killer

10* New England Patriots -6.5

**Buy the 1/2 point for New England -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER

1* Dolphins +7
1* Broncos -3

They also have a big play in baseball, 3*** on the Cardinals (-135)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Picks Direct

1* Atlanta Run Line -1.5 -115

(Volstad) @ (Beachy)

[Mr. IWS]

JOHN CHANG

---Start Time 7:00 PM EST---
New England Patriots -7.5 over MIAMI DOLPHINS, 10 dimes

---Start Time 7:05 PM EST---
St. Louis Cardinals (-140, action) over PITTSBURGH PIRATES, 5 dimes

[Mr. IWS]

JACK HOWARD

NFL:
10* New England -7

St. Louis(-145) Over Pittsburgh 5 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO
50 UNIT* NFL* NE Patriots -7
10 UNIT* NFL* Denver Broncos -3

[Mr. IWS]

Lines2win

1-2 Yesterday (-2.28 Units) Tonight Pats/Dolphins Over 46 (3 Units). The line has moved up a bit over the past week but Miami is going with a more pass oriented offense and these two teams tend to keep it close. 46 points is alot in the NFL, but we think this game will exceed the total easily.

In MLB - Tigers -105 (3 Units) - Tigers are hitting .324 and have scored 53 Runs over their last 7 games. Couple that with the fact that They have won 9 in row and have won the last 4 Porcello starts means doom for the Whitesox.

[Mr. IWS]

OC DOOLEY

TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” REDZONE BASEBALL UNDERDOG BEST BET (Astros +175 at home versus Phillies in an 8:05 eastern start------Oswalt versus Myers): Yesterday Houston lost at Washington against phenom Stephen Strasburg and in the process tied an all-time franchise record for most setbacks (97) in a single campaign. Tonight the Astros attempt to avoid hitting an all-time low as they have a chance to delay the inevitable for one more night and ruin the hopes of their opponent. Statistically this evening Philadelphia (20-6 tear on the road) has a chance to officially clinch a playoff spot and also stay undefeated in the season series versus the National League’s bottom-feeder. One of the best ways of cashing a winning underdog ticket in baseball is to have a starting pitcher capable of keeping his inferior team in the game until the late innings when anything can happen. That is the situation we have this evening with veteran Brett Myers who spent eight long seasons wearing a Philadelphia uniform. The last pair of times that tonight’s Houston starter has faced the mighty Phillies lineup he has held them down to the tune of a 1.93 ERA. For those reading this analysis that are diehard baseball fans you will remember when Myers was called up to the majors in the same season as Mark Prior and both were top-notch prospects that were expected to dominate. Due to a myriad of injuries the career of Prior came quickly to a relative end, but Myers has at the very least proved to be serviceable and in 2010 he actually led the National League in most complete games pitched. The big news regarding tonight’s contest is actually the return of a pair of players who used to star in Houston until getting dealt by the Astros in separate deals. Outfielder Hunter Pence was among the house cleaning that Houston performed at this year’s trade deadline, while veteran pitcher Roy Oswalt (7-8) was sent packing to the Phillies back in 2010. Even though it comes as a relative shock due to Vance Worley’s shocking dominance (Phillies 14-1 tear with the rookie), Oswalt just happens to be the weakest link in the vaunted Philadelphia starting rotation which sets us up for an upset. The visiting Phillies are NOT healthy up the middle as secondbaseman Chase Utley (concussion) is sidelined while shortstop Jimmy Rollins (hamstring) rushed back from the disabled list and essentially is not ready to reassume a starting role. Turning to the database here is a 60-PERCENT SYSTEM (68-44 past five years) which plays AGAINST road favorites like Philadelphia who are on a solid fielding streak of 15+ games with one-or-less errors, when off consecutive contest where the bullpen permitted no earned runs. That system favors Houston who have WON 8 of the past 11 games at HOME and are a .500 club at Minute Maid Park (12-12) since the All Star break. I will wrap this up with a shocking UNDEFEATED database angle that takes advantage of Houston’s Brett Myers (4-13) having a rough season. In the past three years mighty Philadelphia is actually “0-6” when facing an opposing starting pitcher who has won less than 30% of his outings

[Mr. IWS]

PhD Picks

NFL
Miami UNDER 46

MLB
New York Mets -142
Cincinnati -158
Seattle -122
San Francisco -137

[Mr. IWS]

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

4* (480) Miami Dolphins 7:00est

4* (911) Arizona Diamondbacks (with Saunders) 10:10est
3* (913) San Diego Padres (with Harang) 10:15est
3* (919) LA Angels (with Pineiro) 10:05est

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

OAK +3.0 (2*)

UNDER 47 NE/MIA....(2*)

DOLPHINS +8....(3*)

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast
2* N Eng
Marq-Over Denver