Chico1856
09-24-2011, 09:15 PM
Since 1970, more than 82% of teams that win outright also cover the spread.
Bookies Consistently Competent
Since the point-spread came into prominence after World War II bookmakers have demonstrated NASA-like competence at their craft.
In the years we have records—and we have records since the days Sinatra was singing at the Paramount Theater—favorites and underdogs have each covered the spread about half the time. Here’s a break out by decade.
Percent of NFL Favorites/Underdogs That Cover the Spread Decade Favorite
Covered Underdog
Covered
1940s* 39.4% 60.6%
1950s* 43.5% 56.5%
1960s 47.8% 52.2%
1970s 48.2% 51.8%
1980s 47.2% 52.8%
1990s 49.0% 51.0%
2000s 48.6% 51.4%
2010s 47.1% 52.9%
Total 47.9% 52.1%
Since 1970 48.3% 51.7%
Since 1980 48.3% 51.7%
Since 1990 48.7% 51.3%
Since 2000 48.5% 51.5%
(Footnotes: regular-season and playoff games, excluding pushes, pick 'em games
and games off the board; * denotes small sample sizes from those decades)
This is impressive work. Bookmakers have essentially evened the action for over 50 years. Consider for a second if you were charged with establishing a line on every game for just one season, with your own cash as the bank. Where would the percentages land?
That underdogs cover a shade more often than favorites is even more of a testament to their craft. The public like to back favorites. Since the perfectly balanced book is a myth, an end result that slightly favors the underdog is an advantage to the house.
Bookmaker acumen doesn’t begin and end with favorites and underdogs. It also extends to home and away situations.
Over the last few decades home teams are favored about two thirds of the time, and about two thirds of those teams win straight up. But if you made them the focus of your betting strategy you would have won a little less than 50% of your bets.
Think home underdogs have an edge? Think again. You would have barely broke even.
Percent of NFL Home Favorites/Underdogs that cover the spread by decade Decade Home Teams Favored Home Fav
Win SU Home Fav
Win ATS Home Team Underdogs Home Dog
Win SU Home Dog
Win ATS
1940s* 62.8% 64.4% 37.3% 37.2% 42.9% 57.1%
1950s* 61.2% 65.4% 47.9% 38.8% 44.6% 63.4%
1960s 61.2% 66.4% 46.1% 38.8% 29.4% 49.5%
1970s 62.3% 70.4% 50.8% 37.7% 34.8% 56.3%
1980s 69.3% 64.8% 47.1% 30.7% 40.4% 52.4%
1990s 69.1% 69.5% 50.3% 30.9% 39.8% 53.9%
2000s 68.3% 66.5% 48.5% 31.7% 36.9% 50.8%
2010s 66.4% 63.8% 46.6% 33.6% 38.6% 52.3%
Total 66.3% 67.3% 48.5% 33.7% 37.1% 53.3%
Since 1970 67.4% 67.5% 49.0% 32.6% 37.9% 53.3%
Since 1980 68.8% 66.9% 48.6% 31.2% 38.9% 52.3%
Since 1990 68.6% 67.7% 49.2% 31.4% 38.3% 52.3%
Since 2000 68.1% 66.2% 48.3% 31.9% 37.0% 51.0
(Footnotes: regular-season and playoff games, excluding pushes, pick 'em games
and games off the board; * denotes small sample sizes from those decades)
No matter how you cut it line makers have achieved incredible balance. But more impressive than the result is how it was achieved. Since the early 1940s most NFL lines were the product of four men who employed decidedly different techniques to achieve the same precision-like consistency.
Leo Hirschfield– Hirschfield operated what would today be considered one of those shady 1-900 numbers, the key difference being today’s touts provide picks (using the term loosely), while Hirschfield and his crew provided game lines to his subscribers, most of them other bookies across the nation. Operating out of Minneapolis (the “Minneapolis Line”) from the late 1930s until he closed shop in 1961 under Federal pressure, Hirschfield set point-spreads by discussing each game with a small, well prepared crew until they arrived at consensus. In the era before mass media, Hirschfield’s success was due in part to having better information than anybody else.
Jimmy Snyder – After Hirschfield retired the influence shifted to Las Vegas. Various turf clubs (casinos didn’t offer sports betting until the mid 1970s) set their own line, each comparing theirs to the others until a consensus was formed. “The Greek” was one of those line makers. He started writing a national newspaper column featuring his lines and they soon became the nation’s standard until self promotion and other entrepreneurial efforts caused the quality of his lines to slide. The Greek’s skill was based on data analysis and, by his own admission, a hefty dose of gut.
Bob Martin – Originally from the East Coast, Martin moved to Las Vegas and came to prominence in the late 1960s when his line started to be recognized as the most reliable. He probably fits the bill as the stereotypical wise guy we see portrayed in movies and books today, and his prowess came from reading newspapers, talking with a network of contacts across the country, and trust in his own intuition of how the public would react to the number he released. If the 1970s was the golden era for NFL football (and maybe it wasn’t), it was Martin’s lines people were betting against. The famous 17 point spread on Jets-Colts in Super Bowl III was his line. A story often repeated, Martin apparently received a letter from a journalism student chiding him for being so far off the number. His response: “To the contrary, I think it’s one of the best lines we ever put up.” Martin famously bet against his own line whenever the gullible public moved it too far in the wrong direction (which should remove any doubt as to whether bookies are trying to hit a certain number). In 1983 he went away for awhile when the feds took offense to something he was doing.
Michael Roxborough– Michael “Roxy” Roxborough started out as an assistant sports book manager in Reno but was so good at handicapping he moved to Las Vegas to start a business known as Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the dominating line making force since the late 1980s and the industry standard to this day. With Roxborough it’s all about modern technology, tapping databases that go back through years of history to arrive at the perfect line.
The point of this history wasn’t to impress people with information available to anyone inclined to do a little research, but to marvel at how four different individuals achieved almost identical results using vastly different techniques.
From Hirschfield’s superior information to Martin’s intuition to Roxborough’s regression analysis, it all adds up to the same thing: 60+ years of a remarkably consistent NFL line that is very tough to beat.
So the bookies are good. What can a poor boy do?
So the bookies are good. Is it possible to beat the spread?
Yes it is. Unlike other casino games or gambling diversions, sports betting does not have a built-in mathematical edge favoring the house.
Sure, there’s “the juice” (bettors must put up $11 to win $10, requiring you to win slightly more than 52% of your bets to break even), but it’s in essence a fee the house charges for the service of booking a bet. The bet itself—your opinion of who will win and by how much—comes down to skill, acumen and predictive prowess.
Here’s that first chart again, this time with a few more columns. As shown on the right, teams that win straight up have covered the spread 82% of the time since 1970.
Percent of Outright Winners That Cover the Spread Decade NFL Avg
Margin of Victory Avg Pointspread Favorite
Covered Underdog Covered Underdog Won Outright SU Winner =
ATS Winner
1940s* 14.4 -10.3 39.4% 60.6% 34.0% 73.4%
1950s* 13.8 -7.7 43.5% 56.5% 37.6% 81.1%
1960s 13.8 -8.1 47.8% 52.2% 29.3% 77.1%
1970s 12.5 -7.2 48.2% 51.8% 30.6% 78.8%
1980s 11.9 -5.3 47.2% 52.8% 36.5% 83.7%
1990s 11.7 -5.9 49.0% 51.0% 33.3% 82.3%
2000s 12.1 -5.6 48.6% 51.4% 34.6% 83.2%
2010s 11.8 -5.2 47.1% 52.9% 36.9% 84.0%
Total 12.4 -6.3 47.9% 52.1% 33.5% 81.4%
Since 1970 48.3% 51.7% 33.9% 82.2%
Since 1980 48.3% 51.7% 34.8% 83.1%
Since 1990 48.7% 51.3% 34.1% 82.8%
Since 2000 48.5% 51.5% 34.8% 83.3%
If the significance of this isn’t readily apparent, it should be. It means the point-spread is a factor in less than 20% of games played. Add games where the betting line was even (pick ‘em games were excluded from this analysis) and that figure approaches 15%.That’s an amazing edge for simply picking winners.
It’s a moving trend, too. As the NFL average margin of victory has gotten smaller in recent years the percent of outright winners that cover has gotten higher. Last year straight up winners covered the spread 84% of the time.
But lest we be accused of the hyperbole employed by those 1-900 guys, this isn’t a silver bullet. You’d need to pick 100% straight up winners to win 80% or more ATS. That’s not possible. If you picked, say, 75% outright winners up to 20% will fail to cover the spread and your win percent ATS drops.
But pick for pick it still comes down to this:
•Historically, the point-spread is only a factor in about 15-20% of games played.
•Pick the winner of the game and you have an 80-85% chance to cover the spread.
•Despite impressive work by the people who make the line, the line is not the main reason people lose. They lose because of their inability to pick winners.
In bullfighting terms, the point-spread is the red cape. It distracts you, it dances in front of you, it teases you, and all the while the game is standing right there behind it.
Bookies Consistently Competent
Since the point-spread came into prominence after World War II bookmakers have demonstrated NASA-like competence at their craft.
In the years we have records—and we have records since the days Sinatra was singing at the Paramount Theater—favorites and underdogs have each covered the spread about half the time. Here’s a break out by decade.
Percent of NFL Favorites/Underdogs That Cover the Spread Decade Favorite
Covered Underdog
Covered
1940s* 39.4% 60.6%
1950s* 43.5% 56.5%
1960s 47.8% 52.2%
1970s 48.2% 51.8%
1980s 47.2% 52.8%
1990s 49.0% 51.0%
2000s 48.6% 51.4%
2010s 47.1% 52.9%
Total 47.9% 52.1%
Since 1970 48.3% 51.7%
Since 1980 48.3% 51.7%
Since 1990 48.7% 51.3%
Since 2000 48.5% 51.5%
(Footnotes: regular-season and playoff games, excluding pushes, pick 'em games
and games off the board; * denotes small sample sizes from those decades)
This is impressive work. Bookmakers have essentially evened the action for over 50 years. Consider for a second if you were charged with establishing a line on every game for just one season, with your own cash as the bank. Where would the percentages land?
That underdogs cover a shade more often than favorites is even more of a testament to their craft. The public like to back favorites. Since the perfectly balanced book is a myth, an end result that slightly favors the underdog is an advantage to the house.
Bookmaker acumen doesn’t begin and end with favorites and underdogs. It also extends to home and away situations.
Over the last few decades home teams are favored about two thirds of the time, and about two thirds of those teams win straight up. But if you made them the focus of your betting strategy you would have won a little less than 50% of your bets.
Think home underdogs have an edge? Think again. You would have barely broke even.
Percent of NFL Home Favorites/Underdogs that cover the spread by decade Decade Home Teams Favored Home Fav
Win SU Home Fav
Win ATS Home Team Underdogs Home Dog
Win SU Home Dog
Win ATS
1940s* 62.8% 64.4% 37.3% 37.2% 42.9% 57.1%
1950s* 61.2% 65.4% 47.9% 38.8% 44.6% 63.4%
1960s 61.2% 66.4% 46.1% 38.8% 29.4% 49.5%
1970s 62.3% 70.4% 50.8% 37.7% 34.8% 56.3%
1980s 69.3% 64.8% 47.1% 30.7% 40.4% 52.4%
1990s 69.1% 69.5% 50.3% 30.9% 39.8% 53.9%
2000s 68.3% 66.5% 48.5% 31.7% 36.9% 50.8%
2010s 66.4% 63.8% 46.6% 33.6% 38.6% 52.3%
Total 66.3% 67.3% 48.5% 33.7% 37.1% 53.3%
Since 1970 67.4% 67.5% 49.0% 32.6% 37.9% 53.3%
Since 1980 68.8% 66.9% 48.6% 31.2% 38.9% 52.3%
Since 1990 68.6% 67.7% 49.2% 31.4% 38.3% 52.3%
Since 2000 68.1% 66.2% 48.3% 31.9% 37.0% 51.0
(Footnotes: regular-season and playoff games, excluding pushes, pick 'em games
and games off the board; * denotes small sample sizes from those decades)
No matter how you cut it line makers have achieved incredible balance. But more impressive than the result is how it was achieved. Since the early 1940s most NFL lines were the product of four men who employed decidedly different techniques to achieve the same precision-like consistency.
Leo Hirschfield– Hirschfield operated what would today be considered one of those shady 1-900 numbers, the key difference being today’s touts provide picks (using the term loosely), while Hirschfield and his crew provided game lines to his subscribers, most of them other bookies across the nation. Operating out of Minneapolis (the “Minneapolis Line”) from the late 1930s until he closed shop in 1961 under Federal pressure, Hirschfield set point-spreads by discussing each game with a small, well prepared crew until they arrived at consensus. In the era before mass media, Hirschfield’s success was due in part to having better information than anybody else.
Jimmy Snyder – After Hirschfield retired the influence shifted to Las Vegas. Various turf clubs (casinos didn’t offer sports betting until the mid 1970s) set their own line, each comparing theirs to the others until a consensus was formed. “The Greek” was one of those line makers. He started writing a national newspaper column featuring his lines and they soon became the nation’s standard until self promotion and other entrepreneurial efforts caused the quality of his lines to slide. The Greek’s skill was based on data analysis and, by his own admission, a hefty dose of gut.
Bob Martin – Originally from the East Coast, Martin moved to Las Vegas and came to prominence in the late 1960s when his line started to be recognized as the most reliable. He probably fits the bill as the stereotypical wise guy we see portrayed in movies and books today, and his prowess came from reading newspapers, talking with a network of contacts across the country, and trust in his own intuition of how the public would react to the number he released. If the 1970s was the golden era for NFL football (and maybe it wasn’t), it was Martin’s lines people were betting against. The famous 17 point spread on Jets-Colts in Super Bowl III was his line. A story often repeated, Martin apparently received a letter from a journalism student chiding him for being so far off the number. His response: “To the contrary, I think it’s one of the best lines we ever put up.” Martin famously bet against his own line whenever the gullible public moved it too far in the wrong direction (which should remove any doubt as to whether bookies are trying to hit a certain number). In 1983 he went away for awhile when the feds took offense to something he was doing.
Michael Roxborough– Michael “Roxy” Roxborough started out as an assistant sports book manager in Reno but was so good at handicapping he moved to Las Vegas to start a business known as Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the dominating line making force since the late 1980s and the industry standard to this day. With Roxborough it’s all about modern technology, tapping databases that go back through years of history to arrive at the perfect line.
The point of this history wasn’t to impress people with information available to anyone inclined to do a little research, but to marvel at how four different individuals achieved almost identical results using vastly different techniques.
From Hirschfield’s superior information to Martin’s intuition to Roxborough’s regression analysis, it all adds up to the same thing: 60+ years of a remarkably consistent NFL line that is very tough to beat.
So the bookies are good. What can a poor boy do?
So the bookies are good. Is it possible to beat the spread?
Yes it is. Unlike other casino games or gambling diversions, sports betting does not have a built-in mathematical edge favoring the house.
Sure, there’s “the juice” (bettors must put up $11 to win $10, requiring you to win slightly more than 52% of your bets to break even), but it’s in essence a fee the house charges for the service of booking a bet. The bet itself—your opinion of who will win and by how much—comes down to skill, acumen and predictive prowess.
Here’s that first chart again, this time with a few more columns. As shown on the right, teams that win straight up have covered the spread 82% of the time since 1970.
Percent of Outright Winners That Cover the Spread Decade NFL Avg
Margin of Victory Avg Pointspread Favorite
Covered Underdog Covered Underdog Won Outright SU Winner =
ATS Winner
1940s* 14.4 -10.3 39.4% 60.6% 34.0% 73.4%
1950s* 13.8 -7.7 43.5% 56.5% 37.6% 81.1%
1960s 13.8 -8.1 47.8% 52.2% 29.3% 77.1%
1970s 12.5 -7.2 48.2% 51.8% 30.6% 78.8%
1980s 11.9 -5.3 47.2% 52.8% 36.5% 83.7%
1990s 11.7 -5.9 49.0% 51.0% 33.3% 82.3%
2000s 12.1 -5.6 48.6% 51.4% 34.6% 83.2%
2010s 11.8 -5.2 47.1% 52.9% 36.9% 84.0%
Total 12.4 -6.3 47.9% 52.1% 33.5% 81.4%
Since 1970 48.3% 51.7% 33.9% 82.2%
Since 1980 48.3% 51.7% 34.8% 83.1%
Since 1990 48.7% 51.3% 34.1% 82.8%
Since 2000 48.5% 51.5% 34.8% 83.3%
If the significance of this isn’t readily apparent, it should be. It means the point-spread is a factor in less than 20% of games played. Add games where the betting line was even (pick ‘em games were excluded from this analysis) and that figure approaches 15%.That’s an amazing edge for simply picking winners.
It’s a moving trend, too. As the NFL average margin of victory has gotten smaller in recent years the percent of outright winners that cover has gotten higher. Last year straight up winners covered the spread 84% of the time.
But lest we be accused of the hyperbole employed by those 1-900 guys, this isn’t a silver bullet. You’d need to pick 100% straight up winners to win 80% or more ATS. That’s not possible. If you picked, say, 75% outright winners up to 20% will fail to cover the spread and your win percent ATS drops.
But pick for pick it still comes down to this:
•Historically, the point-spread is only a factor in about 15-20% of games played.
•Pick the winner of the game and you have an 80-85% chance to cover the spread.
•Despite impressive work by the people who make the line, the line is not the main reason people lose. They lose because of their inability to pick winners.
In bullfighting terms, the point-spread is the red cape. It distracts you, it dances in front of you, it teases you, and all the while the game is standing right there behind it.