9-28-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB Betting News and Notes
Texas Rangers Close Regular Season At Angels
By: Matty Simo

With Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Angels were officially eliminated from postseason contention and will have to wait until next year to try to get back to the playoffs.

The Angels were given a very small opportunity to win the American League wild card when the Boston Red Sox lost earlier in the evening to the Baltimore Orioles, but they failed to take advantage of it. Los Angeles would have needed both the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays to each lose their last two games while sweeping the Rangers in three games, which obviously is no longer possible.

Game time for Wednesday’s series and season finale is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. (ET).

Umpire Paul Emmel will be behind home plate, and he has seen a slight edge for the home teams in his games at 12-11. The ‘under’ is 13-10 when he calls balls and strikes.

Texas had won 10 of the 17 meetings with the Angels this season heading into Tuesday after knocking them out in the series opener, while the ‘over’ had gone 3-0-1 in the previous four games between the teams. Los Angeles fell below the .500 mark against AL West opponents with the setback at 27-28 compared to a stellar mark of 38-17 vs. divisional foes for the Rangers.

Shortstop Elvis Andrus paced Texas with four hits on Monday while third baseman Adrian Beltre hit a two-run homer and second baseman Michael Young drove in Andrus with what turned out to be the game-winning run in the eighth inning. Center fielder Peter Bourjos had an RBI single in the bottom of the ninth for the Angels, who fell short for the seventh time in 11 games.

Los Angeles was without rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo due a stress fracture in his right foot that will keep him sidelined for this game as well. Trumbo led the team with 29 homers and 87 RBI despite playing in just 149 games.

The Angels will send ace Jered Weaver (18-8, 2.41 ERA) to the mound one last time after already setting a career high for wins. He got the decision in a 3-1 loss to Oakland at home last time out on Friday as a heavy 185 favorite, giving up all three runs and six hits in 8 1/3 innings of work.

The Halos have won Weaver’s previous four starts, all as a favorite of 130 or higher. He is 9-6 lifetime against the Rangers in 25 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 8-2 at home this season with a 1.94 ERA. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in his last four outings.

Texas will counter with lefty Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.46), who has won each of his last four starts. Harrison has struggled against the Angels with a career mark of 2-2 against them and an ERA of 5.04. He has pitched well on the road though with a 6-4 record and a 3.09 ERA.

The weather forecast for Anaheim on Wednesday calls for a high temperature of 81 degrees under mostly sunny skies, cooling off to the mid-70s for first pitch.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB Betting News and Notes
NY Yankees Close Campaign At Tampa Bay Rays
By: Adam Markowitz

The regular season is scheduled to come to a close on Wednesday night, but the race for the Wild Cards in both the American League and the National League might extend things to a 163rd game. The Tampa Bay Rays will hope to nail down a spot in the postseason for the third time in franchise history in game No. 162 against the AL East champion New York Yankees on Wednesday.

The first pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. (ET) from Tropicana Field, and television coverage is tentatively scheduled for the YES Network, Sun Sports and the MLB Network. The ESPN family of networks could pick up coverage of the game as well depending on how the rest of the schedule plays out on Tuesday.

The Yankees know they aren't going to be using anyone in their rotation that will be around for the playoffs in this game. Manager Joe Girardi hasn't announced a starting pitcher as of Tuesday morning. Odds are that many of the regulars in the lineup are going to get the day off as well.

New York has earned that right, knowing that it has already locked up the best record in the American League, and will be hosting either the Detroit Tigers or Texas Rangers on Friday in the Bronx for Game 1 of the ALDS.

Tampa Bay is in a significantly different spot, though. Coming into play on Tuesday night, the Rays were at 89-71, an identical record shared with the Boston Red Sox. We know that regardless of what happens on Tuesday, manager Joe Maddon and company will neither have wrapped up a playoff bid, nor will have been eliminated from the postseason, so this game could be for all of the marbles.

Boston is going against the Baltimore Orioles in the final two games of the season and, for the time being, is scheduled to throw Jon Lester against Alfredo Simon on Wednesday.

Barring a change in heart, Maddon is going to be going with David Price in the biggest game of the season. Yes, Price has a losing record at 12-13, but he has numbers this year that suggest he could have been a Cy Young Award contender.

The southpaw is no stranger to big games, having pitched as a rookie out of the bullpen in the run to the World Series in 2008, but this is as big of a start as he has ever made in his career.

Price is holding batters to a .228 batting average this year and has a fantastic 3.35 ERA. His walks are down from a year ago with just 60 free passes, and for the first time in his career, Price has reached the 200+ strikeout barrier with 215 K's.

The issue of fatigue is there for Price, though. He has already thrown 220 1/3-innings in 2011, and this is going to be the first time that he is asked to make a 34th start in a regular season in his career. He hasn't pitched more than 6 2/3-innings in four straight starts as well, another issue that has to be a concern.

New York owns a 9-7 lead in the season series with Tuesday's action still pending, though the Rays did take the first game of this series on Monday night 5-2 thanks to a great pitching effort by James Shields.

Tampa Bay has gone 4-3 in the seven meetings thus far at Tropicana Field.

Veteran umpire Joe West is scheduled to have the plate for this one, and he brings a very strong 21-11-3 season trend to the 'over' into the game. However, the 'under' has cashed in two of three plate assignments at The Trop, with the third a 'push.' Two of those three contests were starts by Rays southpaw Price.

Should the Red Sox and Rays have a matching record, a one-game playoff will be held on Thursday for the right to take on either the Rangers or the Tigers in the ALDS on Friday. Tampa Bay will host the game by virtue of its 12-6 record against Boston in the regular season.

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday’s Betting Tips: MLB Wild Cards All Even

Who’s Hot

MLB: Washington is 13-3 in its last 16 overall.

MLB: Cincinnati is 15-6 in its last 21 games as a favorite.

Who’s Not

MLB: Seattle has won 24 of its last 74 overall.

MLB: Only two of Arizona’s last 11 games have played over the total.

Key Stat

3 – Barcelona sharpshooter Lionel Messi has a pair of hat tricks in his last three games heading into the club’s Champions League match against BATE Borisov on Wednesday. Messi is also just three goals away from overtaking Ladislau Kubala as Barcelona’s second-leading scorer of all time. Barcelona is set as a big -715 favorite with the draw at +620 and a BATE victory at +1350.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - Jones is dealing with a bone bruise on his right knee. An MRI confirmed that the injury was not more serious and Jones will continue to play through the discomfort.

Game Of The Day

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (N/A)

Notable Quotable

''It's like you sit down to a great dinner and you eat your dinner. You feel great but you still want that dessert, and you want it to be the best dessert ever and that's how I feel. I'm satisfied because I am full from that main meal but I'm waiting on that fabulous dessert. The finals is going to be that dessert for me.” – Minnesota Lynx 41-year-old center Taj McWilliams-Franklin about advancing to the WNBA finals. The Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream square off Tuesday night for a chance to battle the Lynx in the finals.

Tips And Notes

The Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays both won on Tuesday, so they'll head into Wednesday's action tied for the AL wild card. Boston is set as a -230 favorite at Baltimore with Jon Lester facing Alfredo Simon, while Tampa Bay sends David Price to the mound against the Yankees, who have yet to name their starter. Same story in the National League where the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are tied for the final playoff spot. The Cardinals are expected to have Chris Carpenter on the hill against Houston's Brett Myers. Meanwhile, Tim Hudson will start for Atlanta against Philadelphia's Joe Blanton.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick likely will play Sunday vs. San Francisco despite a badly bruised hand, Philly.com reported Tuesday. The lefthanded Vick was thought to have suffered a broken right hand in Sunday's loss to the New York Giants. But a second examination Monday revealed that what was thought to be a break was a blood vessel, and Vick has a deep bone bruise near his wrist. The report said Vick will play if the swelling in his hand decreases and he is cleared by a doctor for contact. He is wearing a large wrap over the hand.

Chelsea’s starting lineup will garner a lot of attention ahead of Wednesday’s Champions League match with Valencia. Frank Lampard has been a staple in center midfield for Chelsea for years, but 33-year-old manager Andre Villas-Boas has stuck the veteran on the bench in three of the club’s last four games, which is causing a major uproar among some team supporters. Meanwhile, Fernando Torres will likely start as he will have to serve an EPL suspension following Saturday’s red car against Swansea. Chelsea is pegged at +140 with the draw at +215 and a Valencia win at +180.

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (105, 8.5)

To say it has been a weird few days for the Chicago White Sox would be a major understatement.

We all knew that Ozzie Guillen’s relationship with the front office has been in the toilet for a while, but you had to figure they’d keep it together until the season ended. Maybe we should have known better.

Now, Ozzie has been traded to the Marlins for a couple of prospects and reportedly signed a four-year deal with the Fish to was supposed to pay him double the $2 million yearly contract he had with Chicago. Judging from his recent comments to the media, he couldn’t be happier.

“With the rings, I can’t do [anything] with that,’’ he told the Chicago Sun-Times recently. “But with money, I can go buy me a new boat, I can go buy me a new car, I can dress my wife the way I want to dress her, I can go to Spain. With the ring, I can go to United Airlines and say, ‘Hello, I won the 2005 championship. Can you fly me to Spain?’ Hell, no.”

So that’s why he jumped ship to Florida, which leaves the White Sox in a weird spot as pitching coach Don Cooper takes over as interim manager. Especially after bench coach Joey Cora was told to hit the road along with his buddy Ozzie.

PICK: Toronto


Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-170, 6.5)

Meanwhile on the North Side, Cubs supporters are again waiting for next year – a concept manager Mike Quade seems to have a strong handle on considering the lineup card he submitted Monday night.

Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney and Carlos Pena were the only guys on the field who started Opening Day and the result was predictable – a 2-0 loss to San Diego in which the club managed only two hits.

"People can disagree with me -- that's fine," Quade said. "As far as us evaluating people and what they're best suited to do at this point in their career, so much of that plays into [the lineup decision], and also the performance and effort we've gotten from guys who have been here all year. There's a lot that goes into it.”

There’s still no word about what Wednesday’s lineup card might look like, but then again, how much does that really matter with this disappointing Cubs club?

PICK: San Diego

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

725- 533 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one for WED Wash Nationals -150 22-7 run

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo tried to wing it last night and ended up doing a split as the Cards rallied in Houston and the Orioles fell short against the Sox to leave the debt holding at 1,875 evanses.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch says Simon has to end Lester's hex -- 20 units on the Birds over the Sawx. Also, 20 units on the 'Stros to hammer Carpenter.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Oakland -165

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Braves Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Red Sox. The deficit is 2711 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tigers -170 over Indians

[Mr. IWS]

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

Cardiff City + Southampton FC OVER 2.5
This match is happening in England - Championship

[Mr. IWS]

sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Tigers -170 over Indians

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Baltimore

The Orioles look to bounce back from last night's 8-7 loss and take advantage of a Boston team that is 0-8 in its last 8 games following a win. Baltimore is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+190). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Cincinnati at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 13.536; NY Mets (Batista) 15.120
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under


Game 903-904: Colorado at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 14.719; San Francisco (Surkamp) 14.549
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Over


Game 905-906: Washington at Florida (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.582; Florida (Volstad) 14.617
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Over


Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.416; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.888
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 909-910: St. Louis at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.415; Houston (Myers) 14.573
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.441; Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.451
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 913-914: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.061; San Diego (LeBlanc) 16.069
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under


Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 17.518; Arizona (Saunders) 16.418
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Over


Game 917-918: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.761; White Sox (Humber) 14.724
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Over


Game 919-920: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.108; Detroit (Porcello) 16.780
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under


Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.853; Baltimore (Simon) 15.381
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-220); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+190); Over


Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Undecided); Tampa Bay (Price)
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 925-926: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.697; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.153
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120);


Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 16.385; LA Angels (Richards) 16.580
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 929-930: Oakland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.033; Seattle (Vasquez) 15.461
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Reds
Cubs

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PLAY

Under 8 runs bet. Kansas City and Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball

St. Louis Carpenter -R -195 over HOUSTON

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-up


Wednesday, September 28

Hot pitchers
-- Batista is 1-0, 3.71 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Strasburg has a 2.50 RA in four starts this year. Volstad is 0-0, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 2-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts. Blanton is 1-1, 3.12 in his last five starts.
-- Carpenter is 2-0, 1.45 in his last four starts. Myers is 4-0, 1.53 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 3-1, 1.80 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 2.70 RA in his last three starts. Leblanc is 1-1, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Saunders is 3-0, 2.49 in his last three starts. Lilly is 4-1, 2.48 in his last six starts.

-- Morrow is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (15 IP).
-- Porcello is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 2-1, 2.11 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 2-1, 2.15 in his last four starts. Harrison is 4-0, 2.92 in his last four starts.
-- Gonzalez is 3-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.95 in his last four starts.
-- Locke is 0-2, 4.97 in three starts for Pittsburgh.
-- Surkamp has a 7.31 RA in his last four starts. Pomeramz is 0-1, 9.39 in his last couple starts.

-- McAlister is 0-1, 10.38 in three starts this season.
-- Lester, who is pitching on three days' rest, is 0-3, 10.54 in his last three starts. Simon is 0-3, 6.00 in his last six starts.
-- Price is 0-2, 4.25 in his last five starts. No idea who is pitching for Bronx; they could go bullpen/committee.
-- Humber is 0-1, 7.50 in his last three starts.
-- Pavano is 0-2, 5.85 in his last three starts.
-- Vasquez is 0-5, 11.05 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Volquez starts stayed under the total.
-- Last four Surkamp starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Volstad starts.
-- Three of last four Hudson starts went over the total.
-- Four of last five Myers starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Greinke's last six starts.
-- Four of last five Dempster starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Saunders starts stayed under the total.

-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Humber starts.
-- Over is 7-2-2 in last eleven Porcello starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Simon starts.
-- Six of last nine Price starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Pavano starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Harrison starts went over the total.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Gonzalez starts.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won their last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Cardinals won 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Brewers won 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Arizona won seven of its last nine games. Dodgers won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last eleven games.

-- Detroit won 19 of its last 24 games. .
-- Rays won their last four games, outscoring foes 21-9.
-- Orioles won 10 of their last 15 games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Royals won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Rangers won 13 of their last 15 games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Atlanta lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last six games.
-- Pirates lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight road games.
-- San Francisco lost four of its last six games. Rockies lost 11 of their last 14 games.

-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 29 runs.
-- Red Sox are 7-19 so far this month.
-- Bronx lost its last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Toronto lost eight of its last ten road games.
-- Minnesota lost 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Oakland is 9-12 in its last 21 games. Mariners lost five of their last six games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Atl-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Scott games.
-- Wsh-Fla-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Everitt games.
-- Cin-NY-- Road team won 11 of last 13 Runge games, with dogs 5-1 in his last six games behind dish.
-- StL-Hst-- Four of last five Danley games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Five of last six BWelke games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Miller games.
-- Chi-SD-- Home side won four of last five Ripperger games.
-- Col-SF-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Tumpane games.

-- Cle-Det-- Six of last seven Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-Balt-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Hirschbeck games.
-- NY-TB-- Over is 11-5-1 in last seventeen West games.
-- KC-Min-- Six of last seven Kellogg games went over total.
-- Tor-Chi-- Lollo is a rookie ump; might be first game behind plate.
-- Tex-LA-- Five of last seven Emmel games went over total.
-- A's-Sea-- Under is 4-1-1 in Knight's last six games.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Wednesday

Play Boston (-220) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Jon Lester has won 25 of the last 30 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or more and he has also won 18 of the last 26 games when playing in the month of September. Jon Lester is 14-0 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 2.33 and he is 10-4 in road games this season with an ERA of 3.49.

-----------------------------------------------------------------


Play Detroit (-170) over Cleveland (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Indiana

The Dream look to follow up on their 94-77 win on Sunday and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS victory. Atlanta is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks


TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 609-610: Atlanta at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.164; Indiana 114.059
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 157
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

MILWAUKEE –1½ +115 over Pittsburgh

The Brewers clinch home field for the first round of the playoffs with a win here. How badly so the Brewers want home field? Well, for starters, Milwaukee has won 56 games at home, which is a franchise record. Secondly, instead of saving Zack Greinke for the opener of the playoffs, they’ve elected to have him go here to secure home field. That says a lot. Greinke’s ERA is 3.86 but over the last month it’s 2.61. His ERA on the year is not bad, but certainly not elite. However, his skills are absolutely elite 2.53 xERA, elite strikeout rate, high groundball bias profile and elite control. These are elite skills; it's only his ridiculous (bad luck) 34%/71% hit rate/strand rate that held him back from being the most dominant pitcher in the majors. Jeff Locke was obtained from the Braves in June '09. He performed well at the minor league level but he’s not ready for prime time. In three starts covering just 13 innings, Locke has walked eight and struck out two. He has a WHIP of 1.89 and an ERA of 4.97 and he’ll face a club that is going for it all. Can’t see how the Brewers don’t win this game by five or more. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +115 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

MLB PREDICTIONS

Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers - TIGERS TO WIN (-165)
2* MLB* (Note: I'm risking 3.30 units to win 2 units)
The Tigers need a win tonight and some help from Los Angeles in order to get home field advantage in the first round, which would be huge for Detroit who are 49-31 at Commerica Park this season. The Indians will send Zach McAllister on the mound for the Indians final game of the season. McAllister is 0-1 over three starts with a high 8.53 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and .351 opponents batting average. His longest outing of the three starts was 5.1 innings in his last start vs the White Sox where he gave up 6 hits and 2 earned runs. This will be his first road start, and won't be an easy one against a Tigers team that is rolling right into the postseason and are playing for home field advantage tonight. Detroit sends Rick Porcello to the mound, who is 14-9 on the season despite a high 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .294 opponents batting average. The Tigers always seem to play well in front of Porcell0, as they are 20-8 in his last 28 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 home starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. Overall the Tigers are 38-16 in their last 54 overall, and 19-7 in their last 26 home games. The Tigers have dominated the AL Central division this season going 45-17 in their last 62 vs AL Central opponents. The Indians have collapsed in the second half of this season, and are just 8-20 in their last 28 vs a team with a winning record, 22-52 in their last 74 games as an underdog, and 3-11 in their last 14 games with a total set at 9-10.5. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a big underdog of +151 to +200. Also take note that the Tigers are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 home stats vs the Indians and 8-3 in his last 11 starts against them overall. The Tigers have won 9 straight games vs Cleveland after last night, and are 35-17 in their last 52 home games vs Cleveland. Injury problems have hit the Indians, including their team MVP Asdrubal Cabrera who will most likely miss the final game of the season. The Tigers are facing a struggling pitcher and that isn't good news for their opponent, as they have managed 46 runs in their last 7 games. Everything points to the Tigers here tonight as they roll into the playoff with a win - whether or not they got home field advantage will fall on the Texas/Los Angeles game. Take Detroit on the moneyline.

[Mr. IWS]

Zach Sparazza (THE WINNING ADDICT)

3* MLB* UNDER 8.5 White Sox/Blue Jays –110 (Risk 3.3 units to win 3 units) 2:10 P.M. EST
Phil Humber has been lights out during the day this year, while Brandon Morrow has been untouchable in his last three outings. This same matchup ended in a 2-1 score on Tuesday, and both of these teams are seeking the end of the season as if it can’t get here soon enough. Well, it is finally here—the final day of the regular season. The White Sox haven’t hit the ball well all year long, especially at home, and the Jays haven’t done much in this series, as Jose Bautista is being pitched around more and more without other solid hitters around him. Thames has cooled, Kelly Johnson isn’t killing it, and Adam Lind hasn’t found his groove through 161 games—so I doubt he finds it on the last day of the season. I expect the pitchers to dominate in this one, and 8.5 is much too high for two scuffling teams during the day time. Under 8.5 to win 3 units.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs

2500 DIME
Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5

[Mr. IWS]

RICHIE CARRERA

Chicago/SAN DIEGO OVER 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Superstarhadicapping


9/28
8:10pm (4*) Royals -115

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER

4**** Reds/Mets under 9
2** Blue Jays/White Sox under 8.5
3*** Tigers (-160)

(directly from the West Capper email)
After going 39-19 in August in MLB for +15.1 units, we have struggled in September, going 6-7 (-6.8 units). We typically don't take a lot of MLB action in September because of the roster additions, team motivations and football season kicking off. We will start taking more action as the playoffs begin later this week. Looking to make a splash today and finish the month on a positive note, and today offers some very good value.

As a former professional player, I know all about getaway days and playing a game on the last day of the season with nothing on the line. Getaway Day refers to the last game of any series because the road team is going to "get away", or leave, after the game is over. Well today offers a unique betting situation, as it is the last day of the season and there are several day games. As a former player, I know that each of the guy's on the field have their bags packed and are ready for their off-season to begin. There will be a few players that are trying to hit a milestone (20 HR's, 20 stolen bases, 10 wins, etc), but for the most part the players just want the game to end so they can start their off-season. They have already checked out mentally and they want nothing more than for the game today to last under two hours. When I was a player, I remember our manager putting a $50 fine for anybody that took a strike on the last day of the season. The objective was to be aggressive and make it a quick game. That will hold true today for a few teams:

4**** Mets/Reds under 9 runs (-120)
Jump on this one early, as the number will definitely move to 8.5 closer to gametime. Volquez has struggled in his most recent starts, but he still has power stuff and as long as he throws strikes, he should keep the number down. Considering most of the Mets will be very aggressive and put the ball in play in a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 counts, he shouldn't have many walks or strikeouts. Six of his last eight starts have stayed UNDER. Bautista is a solid arm and throws strikes, and look for the Reds hitters to be aggressive. Both teams played a very long and meaningless game last night, so their should be some tired bodies on the field as the players close the season. With 11 and 9 runs being scored in the first two games (keeping this total higher than it should be), jump on this line with great value.

2** Blue Jays/White Sox under 8.5 runs (-110)
Another day game with two teams already looking toward their off-season. Morrow has been lights out his last two starts and has 15 straight scoreless innings coming into today. The White Sox have struggled to hit at home all season, and 8.5 is too high for two teams that can't wait for this game to end.

3*** Tigers (-160)
The Tigers need to win tonight to try and get home field advantage in the first round, which would be big considering how well the Tigers play at home. Cabrera will most likely miss the game for the Indians, and Pocello has been good his last few starts while McAlister has been bombed lately. Take the hot team (Detroit has won 19/24) and the team who has something to play for.


I'm also looking VERY closely at this Yankee game. Yankees pitched all of their meaningful relievers last night, which means none of them will throw today. They would actually probably prefer to lose this game today because of the Red Sox factor, and I question how many starters will actually see the field. If this line is crazy (-250 or above) then I might consider other options, but the Yankees are just giving away today.

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+192),
Cardinals (-185),
Mariners (+141),
Twins (+110),
Mets (+110),
Rangers (-145),
Indians (+152).

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
It could all come down to game #162 for the Atlanta Braves when they face the division rival Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday night, as manager Freddi Gonzalez’s squad needs to win out to avoid being overtaken or tied in the wild card standings by the St. Louis Cardinals; first pitch from Turner Field is scheduled for 7:10 ET on ESPN2.
Philadelphia has absolutely nothing to play for at this point of the season with the top seed in the National League all wrapped up. Still, manager Charlie Manuel’s squad could relish the opportunity to play the spoiler role, and evidenced by taking Game 1 of this series on Monday night, the Phillies aren’t just going to roll over and die for their division rival. Monday night’s win was #100 on the year for the Phillies who check in as the 6th best bet in all of baseball having made those that supported them all season long a healthy $1009; $668 of that profit has come in on the road where they sport a 48-31 overall record.
Much like the Boston Red Sox, the Atlanta Braves have put forth a September they hope doesn’t come back to bite them when it’s all said and done. The club has managed just nine wins in 25 tries costing those that backed them a whopping $1160 overall. Because of it, Atlanta’s 89-71 overall record has reeled in just $65 on the year. Not the numbers of what the NL Wild Card leader should look like, but the NL is by far the lesser of the two league’s overall this season. Atlanta does sit 15-games over .500 at home (-$19), but enters the second game of this series on Tuesday night losers in six of their L/10 as hosts.
Philadelphia has rattled off five straight wins against the Braves and holds a 10-6 overall advantage in the division rivals 2011 season series; the ‘under’ is 8-6-2 in those games.
Philly will go with Joe Blanton who will be making his second start since returning from the DL on Wednesday, while the Braves will throw veteran righty Tim Hudson for the 33rd time. Atlanta has won two of his three 2011 starts against the Phillies, and he’s 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA & .204 BAA in 18 starts in front of the hometown faithful this season. The ‘under’ is 3-1-1 the L/5 times these teams squared off in Hot’Lanta.
PICK: PHILLIES/BRAVES UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

gill alexander | MLB Money Line

dime bet 905 WAS (-145) Hilton (http://www.pregame.com/en/main/sports-betting-lines-odds/) vs 906 FLA

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

250* D´Backs -115

100* Over 9 Redsox/Orioles

50* Over 8.5 Reds/Mets

[Mr. IWS]

Tys Terrific Tips
7 - 0 yesterday posted here


Cincinnati Reds -117

Chicago White Sox +105

Detroit Tigers -163

Minnesota Twins +105

Boston Redsox -215

Chicago Cubs -113

[Mr. IWS]

Sportshandicapperking

3* Texas Rangers

Free: Washington Nationals

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe

3* Toronto Blue Jays -125

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd
3* Brewers RL

[Mr. IWS]

LT Profits

Blue Jays -125

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Chicago Cubs -111

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

6-0 run

mlb col +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

5* Royals

3* Giants

2* Braves -1.5

3* Wsh/Fla OVER 7

5* Bal/Bos OVER 9

[Mr. IWS]

California Sports

4* Mets +117
4* Braves -1.5 +115
4* Oakland -165
3* Indians over 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

PhD Picks 9/28

San Diego +102
Arizona -118

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Edwards

Red Sox at Orioles
Pick: Orioles +185

We came up just short with Baltimore as a plus 160 underdog in last night's 8-7 loss to Boston. The Red Sox are going with Jon Lester tonight, but he's only on three days of rest and his ERA is over 6.00 in the month of September. I'm looking for O's star Nick Markakis to have a big night. Give me the O's to eliminate the Red Sox from the postseason (when the Rays win tonight, too).