10-2-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Sunday, October 2, 2011

CHICAGO 28, Carolina 12
Buffalo 24, CINCINNATI 19
Tennessee 18, CLEVELAND 17
Detroit 26, DALLAS 25
Washington 23, ST. LOUIS 14
PHILADELPHIA 23, San Francisco 22
Minnesota 21, KANSAS CITY 20
New Orleans 33, JACKSONVILLE 17
Pittsburgh 24, HOUSTON 21
N.Y. Giants 27, ARIZONA 17
Atlanta 27, SEATTLE 19
SAN DIEGO 28, Miami 14
GREEN BAY 37, Denver 15
New England 34, OAKLAND 30
BALTIMORE 23, N.Y. Jets 18

[Mr. IWS]

Don Wallace Sports - EARLY WEEK ALERT


(219) MINNESOTA (-1, un140)
(220) KANSAS CITY (+1, ov40)
Sunday, October 2nd, 2011, 1:00 PM EST
Take: (395) MINNESOTA
Analysis: All the pressure will be on the Matt Cassel this week against an opponent than can rush the passer and stuff running games. With Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry out, the Chiefs offense is depleted of weapons. Dexter McCluster (9 carries, 45 yards) energized the ground last week and should get a lot of chances aside the aging Thomas Jones. Offense has been a major struggle for Donovan McNabb and the Minnesota Vikings too. Despite having perhaps the best running back in football, the points have not come easy thanks to a poor vertical attack. A relatively decent performance from either offense should be enough to grind out a win. I trust the Vikings to provide that against Kansas Citys defense more than the other way around. Kansas City has yet to face a running back like Adrian Peterson, and do not have the personnel to stop him. Dwayne Bowe is a good receiver, but the Viking's defense will do what it can to keep the ball away from him. Did I mention how terrible Kansas City was in the first two weeks. The Vikings squandered a pair of substantial leads in home losses to the Buccaneers and Lions. This time they will finally break through and get it done outside the comforts of the Metrodome. MINNESOTA 27 KANSAS CITY 10

[Mr. IWS]

THE DAILY BOBBER

Two-game teaser (6 points): Bears -1, Chargers -1.5 (-110)

Analysis: If you followed me this past weekend, you’re probably as happy as I am right now. Including the victory on my MNF teaser, I put down a nice 3-0 record over the weekend. Having said that, I love this play more than all of those. I get an underrated Bears team that is 1-2 but has lost to great teams in New Orleans and Green Bay. On top of that, I get them against an overrated Panthers team that lost to Arizona in Week 1 and struggled to beat a pathetic Jacksonville team at home on Sunday. Teams have now had a few weeks to get a good look at Newton, and believe me, that benefits a veteran defensive coach like Rod Marinelli more than it does a rookie quarterback. I expect this line may even come down a bit due to the widespread Newton-mania, but the line on our next game is already moving up, so there is no time to waste. In the Mia/SD game, I think we get incredible value at 1.5. For starters, San Diego made a number of mistakes which allowed Kansas City to stay in the game last week, and they are going to come out with a strong desire to play better in Week 4. Under Philip Rivers, the Chargers have the 6th ranked passing game through three weeks. Meanwhile, as I stated in my previous column, the Miami secondary is just awful, allowing an average of 311 yards per game thus far, which ranks 30th in the NFL. I expect San Diego to make an effort at stopping the run while putting help over the top on Brandon Marshall, and stifling this Miami offense. Rivers should have a field day, and the Chargers should have no problem covering 1.5 points at home against this 0-3 team. I’m releasing this early so that you can get it in before the lines shift.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer

3 Unit #222 Take Chicago -6 over Carolina (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 2)

2 Unit #223 Take Over 45 Pittsburgh at Houston (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 2)

2 Unit #236 Take Baltimore -3 ½ over New York Jets (8:25p.m., Sunday, Oct 25)

5 Unit #233 Take Over 55 New England at Oakland (4:15p.m., Sunday, Oct 25)
(Total Game of the Weekend)

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Points

6-Unit Take 'Over' 44 NY Giants at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
NFL Total of the Month

3.5-Unit Take #220 Kansas City (+1.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

4-Unit Take #222 Chicago (-6) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4* Lions / Cowboys UNDER

4* Giants / Cardinals OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Docs Sports Football
NFL

5* Green Bay -12.5
4* Houston -4
4* Cleveland -1
3* Indianapolis +10

[Mr. IWS]

CKO

10 *HOUSTON over Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
*HOUSTON 26 - Pittsburgh 13

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #215 Tennessee (+1.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

4-Unit Play. Take #207 Detroit (+1.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

3-Unit Play. Take #212 Philadelphia (-8.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

3-Unit Play. Take #225 Atlanta (-4.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

2-Unit Play. Take #209 New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

2-Unit Play. Take #223 Pittsburgh (+4) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

3.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 N.Y. Giants at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.5 Detroit at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. #133. Take Western Michigan +3 over Connecticut (Saturday @ 3:30pm est).

Western Michigan could very well win this game Outright. Both these teams are 2-2 but if you've noticed the line on this game is set at just -3 for Connecticut which is a bigger named program that Western Michigan. Why such a short line and notice that most of the public is on Conn to win with the short spread at home. For starters, Western Michigan is no slouch. This is a team that played a competent Illinois team on the road and just fell short 20-23 and they were 14 point underdogs going into that game. Prior to that, this team beat Central Michigan 44-14 as 7 point favorites, and although fell short against Michigan in the beginning of the year, they are certainly itching to play another bigger named program. With Conn coming off a nice win against Buffalo on the road 14-3, I can see them having a bit of a let down here at home as Western Michigan will be hungry coming into this game following a loss and Conn will likely find it difficult to get up for this game. Western Michigan is actually the 35th ranked defense in the nation and note they are 3rd in the league in their pass defense. Western Michigan is also a top 50 team when it relates to their passing offense as well. Conn is is ranked 104th in the nation in offense and 14th in the nation in defense, but note that at the end of the day, with Western Michigan having a decent offense and strong defense, I believe this will make the difference.

4-Unit Play. #208. Take Under 46 Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday @ 1pm est).

I know most folks think that this game is expected to go over, but I like for this game to go under. Note that 66% of the public is on the Lions here to do well, but the line has not shifted from Dallas being a small favorite at -1. Dallas is slowly becoming a defense minded team and we can still hit the Under as it relates to this team for a couple weeks to come - primarily at home. Dallas because of Ryan is ranked 5th in the league in defense, 2nd in the league in rush defense, and frankly, it is because of this defense keeping them in contests, that has allowed this team to be 2-1 at this point - winning against both Washington and San Fran because of a defense that is getting better by the week. After all, how often could we say last year that Dallas can win a game by scoring just 18 points like they did against Washington on MNF. Yes, Detroit has put up a ton of points but I suspect that Stafford will have some trouble with Ryan's defense and I suspect that Romo, who had trouble against Washington's defense will also have trouble against a hungry Lions defense. This should be a decent public fade and I think this game should dip just under for a win for us.

4-Unit Play. #228. Take Over 44.5 New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).

This is the classic active dog over theory that we are accustomed to. We made a similar play with Buffalo/New England Over if you remember and this is based off that principle. Note, that 70% of the public is on the Giants after their big win over Philadelphia and this is a classic let down spot against a team like Arizona who had a rough road trip and has returned home for the first time since the Carolina win. Look for Arizona to be hungry at home as they come off back to back losses and I can see them being an active dog against New York who could let their guard down after two big wins including their win against St. Louis on primetime television and their win against Philadelphia for a game they got up for. I can't see the Giants "getting-up" for this game so to speak and tack that on with the line being as low as it is, look for Arizona to do well and in that same token, look for New York to keep pace as this should be a tight contest and quite possibly could end in a final score to a tune of 27-24 on Sunday afternoon as Arizona could very well bury the public.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NFL)
1 OF 7
Game: San Francisco at Philadelphia (Sunday 10/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 44 -110

It looks like Michael Vick is going to play. Reports are that he practiced Wednesday and the swelling has gone down. With him in the game and trest of the Eagles playmakers, I expect the Eagles to score points here. They have posted 26 or more points in nine of their last 12 games. The Niners offense has been steadily improving. They come into this one averaging 23.3 points per game themselves, and the Philadelphia defense is not their strong suit. That was evident last game when they got pushed around. They haven't yet figured out how to best utilize Nnamdi Asomugha who hasn't adjusted very well to playing zone. The Eagles stop-unit has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last 13 games. The Eagles often find themselves in shootouts vs. winning teams. Under Andy Reid, they are 51-36 OVER vs. winning teams including 35-16-1 in their last 52 such games. The Niners have played six straight to the OVER vs. NFC teams and this series shows 6-1 to the OVER in the last seven meetings. Play the OVER

[Mr. IWS]

OCAL SPORTS

4* Saints -7

4* Vikings -2

4* Falcons -5

[Mr. IWS]

THE WILDCAT(ny post)

TITANS+1.5

BENGALS+3

LAST WEEK 1-1

YTD

5-1-1

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd

Chicago
Atlanta
New England
NY Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus free pick is ARIZONA CARDINALS (per his podcast)

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise:

Buff over Cinci 2*
NYG over Zona 3*
Minny over KC 4*
Ph over SF 5 *
Den over GB 5*

[Mr. IWS]

Goldsheet:

Chichy by 18 over Caro
Phins by 2 over SF
OVER in NE game

[Mr. IWS]

PowerPlays: (only 4* is on...)

NYG 27 Zona 16 (Highest rated play)

[Mr. IWS]

Nelly's Greenseet:

4* NO over J'vill
3* NE over Oaky 38-17
2* caro over Chic 17-16
2*NYG over Zona 27-13

[Mr. IWS]

Redsheet:

Chichy 27 Caro 13 Rated (88*) Average play

[Mr. IWS]

CKO:
Houston 26 Pitty 13 rated 10/11*

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

OVER 44 - San Francisco / Philadelphia

OVER 38 - Atlanta / Seattle

OVER 46 - Denver / Green Bay

Cincinnati Bengals +3

Denver Broncos +13

Miami Dolphins +7

New York Jets +4

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 14-6 +22.20%

3% DALLAS -2
3% PHILADELPHIA -9
3% MINNESOTA –2 No higher than –3
3% CHICAGO -6
3% MIAMI +7
3% BALTIMORE –3.5

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

DALLAS –1 over Detroit

Lions are flying high while the Cowboys are taxiing midair, trying to smooth out a bumpy ride, despite Dallas’ moderate success. That bodes well here as we get the benefit of the ‘Boys Monday night performance and the salty taste left in most mouths despite the win. While it took six field goals and zero touchdowns to secure that win, the most important aspect of that game may have been the sudden maturation of QB Tony Romo, displaying leadership qualities previously in question. Detroit had to overcome a 20-0 deficit before eking out an OT win in Minnesota. Now the Lions will play their third road game in the first four weeks and must travel on consecutive weeks to play a team that will have the luxury of being home again and having next week off. Young Lions also in danger of looking ahead to next week’s rare Monday night appearance against visiting Bears. Small price to spot under ideal conditions. Play: Dallas –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


N.Y. Jets +3½ over BALTIMORE

Jets stock is low after humbling loss to Raiders while Ravens stock is high after dismantling of Rams last week. This is where Jets are most comfortable, taking back points against a quality opponent in a prime time game. In the middle of a three-game road trip for the New Yorkers, with the last stop being next week in New England, this one becomes crucial. Expect a solid effort from Rex Ryan’s group after they admittedly played poorly in loss to Oakland last week. For the Jets, that means pressuring the quarterback and we expect a much more aggressive effort from New York’s defensive packages. Baltimore may have roughed up St. Louis last week but we still don’t trust Baltimore’s shaky secondary, which was anything but tested against the Rams’ inept aerial game. Jets have scored 24 points or more in all three games and they’re taking back a tag for first time this season. Play: N.Y. Jets +3½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).


HOUSTON –3½ over Pittsburgh

We’ve all come to know the Steelers as an extremely physical team that wears out opponents, keeps the game close and finds a way to win it in the fourth. The Steelers have been a model no-nonsense outfit forever. They seldom miss the playoffs and every year it seems they have a shot at winning it all. The Steelers are also a highly public team that gets plenty of backing because of a rather unblemished reputation for being tough as shoe leather. The Steelers are also 2-1 and nothing appears out of place. Check again. This edition of the Steelers is nowhere close to being as good as previous years. Their two wins have come against Seattle and Indy. As a 10½-point choice against the Colts, Pitt needed a field goal on the game’s final play to win it. Had Curtis Painter hit a wide-open Pierre Garcon late in the game the Steelers would be 1-2. Against a quality opponent, the Ravens in week two, the Steelers were destroyed. Pittsburgh’s pass protection is awful, the running game is non-existent and the defense is not even average anymore. This is far and away the most overrated and beatable Steelers club in decades. The Texans are also 2-1. They’ve played one home game and beat Indy 34-7. They also went into Miami and won by 10. Last week in New Orleans they racked up 473 yards of total offense and were oh so close to pulling off the upset against a great team. This is a defining moment for the Texans. They’ve been deservedly labeled underachievers for years and if they’re not sick of hearing about it by now, they should be. Houston is loaded with offensive talent that can rack up points and yards on anyone. In two road games this year, the Steelers have only scored a total of two offensive touchdowns. If the Steelers can’t make this a defensive matchup they’ll get flushed away early. The truth is they can’t. Play: Houston –3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

This Week's Survivor pick:

TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis:

The best part about this one is that you get to use up a team that you may not get another chance to use the rest of the season while saving Green Bay and Philly for another time. The Bucs really don’t have a “gimme” game the rest of the year. They’ll take on a Colts team that is really in trouble. Indy is thin on talent and thick on injuries. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said the team is preparing as if QB Curtis Painter will be the starting quarterback in Week 4. Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount are just warming up and with a rare Monday Night appearance, expect the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders. Most folks will go with Philly or Green Bay this week, so sit back, take the Bucs and hope one of those other two lose.

THE REST (with no wagers):

49ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)

Those records you see above are correct. Not exactly what most projected but things should even out when this one is said and done. The Eagles figure to be miffed after losing to rival Giants while San Fran’s wins have come against the hapless Seahawks and Bengals respectively. TAKING: EAGLES –9

Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)

Has Washington’s bubble burst after demoralizing loss to Dallas on Monday night? Winless Rams may be even more demoralized but teams rarely get punched out in consecutive home games and with the ‘Skins traveling on a short week, St. Louis can steal one here. TAKING: RAMS +1½

Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)

Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games but now finds himself minus his favorite target, as Kenny Britt is lost for the season. Browns aren’t fancy but their methodical ways can lead to win here over suspect visitor. TAKING: BROWNS @ PK

Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2)

Bills take their undefeated record to Cincinnati to face the bumbling Bengals. Easy sledding, right? Not in this league. Emotion plays a big part each Sunday and after Buffalo’s ginormous win over the Patriots, the jubilation may not have worn off in time to focus on this opponent. Throw in the fact that the whole world is laying this seemingly cheap price and the red flags become even more prevalent. We would be very, very cautious about laying the tag because that’s precisely what the books want you to do. TAKING: BENGALS +3½

Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)

We all know who the better team here is but we’ve seen the Saints snooze in situations like this, as evidenced by New Orleans having just one cover in last 10 against teams with a losing record. We’ll err on the side of caution with a Jags team that has covered four of past five here. This one also smells like the one above. TAKING: JAGUARS +7

Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)

Vikes favored to win on the road? One of these dregs will be off the schneid. Style points matter, and these Vikes are the master of the second half melt-down. The Vikings were ahead 20-10 late in the 3rd quarter when confronted with a 4th and 1 outside of field goal range. Leslie Frazier’s inclination was to punt and to try to pin the Lions offense deep, so he started to send out the punting unit. But then Adrian Peterson (who apparently has the power of veto) waved them back off. Peterson called the shots at a critical juncture of the game. However, when the ball was snapped, it was not Peterson, but Toby Gerhart that plowed into a brick wall of Lions who correctly foresaw the unimaginative play-call. Can’t wait to see if Peterson benches McNabb next week. When the coach loses control and respect of team, we all know what happens next. If Chiefs weren’t so unwatchable, this could’ve made our top plays. TAKING: CHIEFS +2

Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)

Rookie quarterbacks are greatly aided by a strong running game but with QB Cam Newton being Carolina’s leading rusher, challenges lie ahead. The Bears defensive schemes are tough to cope with and we expect Cam Newton’s inexperience to fall victim to much of it. TAKING: BEARS –6

Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)

Falcons fell for the old ‘hard count” on 4th & 1 last week with the game on the line. Offsides. Game over. We all know that defensive guys aren’t traditionally collectively the smartest players on the field, but the coach just reminded you on the sidelines during the time out you took to discuss the play, “don’t jump off-sides, he’s going to try to draw you off-sides.” Chances are he said it more than once. What he probably said after they jumped offside was “OMFG”! In a related note, these guys are also suckers for the old, “there is a spot on your tie” and “you’re shoestring is untied” gags. Not exactly enamored with the Seahawks but we’re similarly unimpressed with an underachieving Atlanta bunch. The Falcons couldn’t tackle Betty White at the moment and until we see them toughen up, we’re reluctant to spot road points with them, no matter who the opposition might be. TAKING: SEATTLE +4½

Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)

Cardinals travel terribly and after a pair of close road losses, they’ll be happy to return to the desert. The Giants found a way to upset the Eagles last week but they remain extremely thin in their secondary and receiving corps. It is also New York’s third road game in four weeks after huge win in Philly. Letdown spot with a banged up club is not a recipe for success. TAKING: CARDINALS +1

Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)

You can’t just conveniently sweep New England’s 32nd ranked defense under the rug. Without a pass rush, opposing quarterbacks are having their way against the Pats secondary. Raiders looked solid in win over Jets and are home again, rested and anxiously awaiting this litmus test. TAKING: RAIDERS +5

Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)

If the Dolphins weren’t victorious in last week’s game against the Browns, they may never win. Miami has struggled terribly in the red zone and that does not bode well against a team that has the ability to fill up the scoreboard. It is really hard to win in this league with a backup quarterback as a starter and an assistant head coach as a head coach. Sparano is obviously doomed here, but maybe Parcells can get him a job at ESPN when he mercifully gets the axe. Chargers are unreliable but are slightly preferred in this matchup and they’ll blow out somebody real soon. Dolphins are ripe. TAKING: CHARGERS –7

Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)

Lend the Broncos five points and they’d be undefeated. Well, it’s never that simple but we can’t ignore the slim margins in Denver’s games. Combination of Broncos getting healthier and Green Bay suffering some maladies of its own, this one should stay within range. TAKING: BRONCOS +12½

[Mr. IWS]

RICK NEEDHAM

Patriots (-5.0) at Raiders October 2, 4:00 PM CBS

The New England Patriots head West to take on the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. It's not often where one can say this, but the Raiders are coming off a big win, while the Patriots are licking their wounds after a heartbreaking defeat. Usually, those roles are reversed, but the Raiders have shown they are ready for an upsurge. In a 10-point win at home against the 2-0 Jets, they showed that perhaps this game isn't the laughingstock that we have recently been conditioned to think. The fact that a New England team with Tom Brady averaging 440 yards passing per game is such a modest favorite against Oakland shows a new respect for this Raiders team. Long mired in shambles, they partially emerged last season with an 8-8 mark. This year offers new promise; with an opening week win at Denver, followed two weeks later with a win over the Jets. In between, they lost a 3-point game at Buffalo, which looked a lot worse before that same Bills team beat the Patriots on Sunday-also by a field goal.
One might be concerned about most teams that blew a 21-0 lead at Buffalo to lose by a last-second field goal. With the Patriots, it shouldn't be too much cause for panic. After easily handling Miami and San Diego, they probably grew a little complacent upon seeing themselves up by 3 touchdowns and let their foot off the gas pedal. They were facing an uppity Bills team with a plucky young QB and got nipped at the wire. It's going to happen in this league. If anything, the loss should refocus them. The way their defense allowed the Bills to come back was not inspiring, but Brady's 4 picks didn't help. It drowned out an otherwise powerful performance by Brady and Co. that saw him rack up 387 yards and 4 touchdowns. WR Wes Welker caught an amazing 16 balls for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. Their running game was kept in check for the most part, but aren't teams allowed to lag in certain areas from time to time?

It looks like the Raiders are really responding to new head coach Hue Jackson. On defense, there is no question that some key losses in the offseason have taken their toll, but the offense looks prepared to answer the call. QB Jason Campbell has been efficient and steady-a big improvement considering recent Raiders quarterbacking issues. Darkhorse rookie Denarius Moore is developing into a nice little playmaker, leading the team in receiving yards. But most important is the continued blossoming of RB Darren McFadden. His 1152 yards and 5.2 rushing average in 2010 signaled a coming out party. This year, however, he seems to be taking it to the next level. Against the Jets, he was lethal, rushing for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns against a normally stingy "D." A 70-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter had that kind of "WOW" factor that really seems to confirm what a star McFadden has become. McFadden hurt his groin apparently, but will play on Sunday. The Patriots took some knocks too, with TE Aaron Hernandez and DT Albert Haynesworth among the injured, with both being questionable for Sunday. As far as motivation is concerned, both teams have a lot on the line. It's almost a fork-in-the-road moment for Oakland. Will they rise to the occasion or show they still need time? For the Patriots, they certainly want to avoid going an unseemly (for them) 2-2 and Brady is looking to atone against a defense that on paper; might be in over its head.

Oakland is showing signs of life, especially on offense. Defensively, it's another story. This "D" has given up 117 yards rushing to Buffalo's Fred Jackson, 304 yards passing against Kyle Orton in their win over Denver, and 369 yards to Mark Sanchez on Sunday. Numbers can be misleading, but against an irritated Tom Brady who is on fire and a New England offense that will be looking for blood, the Raiders will be put to the test. Look for a close game to break out a bit late with the Patriots getting the cover. I'll TAKE THE PATRIOTS to both win and cover!


RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

SAINTS (-6.0) OVER JAGUARS
THE UNDER (43.0) COLTS AT BUCS

[Mr. IWS]

VaS

6% Minnesota -2.5
4% Buffalo -2.5
2% Washington -2.5
1% Miami +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

egas Sports Plays

Johnny Yang
Record 5 - 7

3.3* New Orleans Saints -7
3.3* San Diego Chargers -7

Brooks Riley
Record 4 - 7

3.3* Detroit Lions +2.5
3.3* Chicago Bears -6.5

Glenn Long (owner)
Record 5 -7

5.5* Houston Texans -3.5

Carter Williams
Record 3 - 0

7.7* Philadelphia Eagles -9

The System NFL
Record 11 - 0 - 2

4.4* Baltimore Ravens -3.5
4.4* New York Giants -1
4.4* New Orleans Saints 6.5 (buy a point down if nec) -120
4.4* Dallas Cowboys -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Superstarhandicapping

1pm (5*) Pittsburgh +3.5

1pm (5*) Tennessee Pick-em

4:15pm (5*) New England -5

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

LIONS +3 (-130) at cowboys
TEXANS -3 (-130) vs steelers
SAINTS -7 at jaguars
REDSKINS -3 at rams
RAIDERS +7 (-130) vs patriots
DOLPHINS +8 at chargers
RAVENS -3 (-135) vs jets

[Mr. IWS]

RICH ALLEN
SPORTS BETTING PROFESSOR

New Orleans -6.5*

NY Giants -1*

Baltimore Ravens -3.5*

regular play
san diego -7

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Dallas -2.5 over Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Dbacks + Brewers OVER 7

[Mr. IWS]

sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Dallas -2.5 over Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

727- 534 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one for 23-9 run Sun: Saints -7

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Wisconsin Saturday night.

Sunday it's the Lions. The deficit is 2,724 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo threw a no-blood splitter last night as he missed with the Rays and D'backs but hit with the Yanks and Stanford to leave the debt holding steady at 2,005 toons.

Today, Mr. Aitch will back the best of his NFL picks with 20-unit line plunges on the Jets, Lions and Packers. Also, 20 on heady Freddy to be ready to take care of business against the Tigers. Tonight, he is counting on the Cards to provide some cheers against Cliffy and the Phils -- 20 units.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Minnesota (WNBA) -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Atlanta at Seattle

The Falcons look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3 1/2; to 10 points. Atlanta is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/29)


Game 207-208: Detroit at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 137.714; Dallas 135.553
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Over


Game 209-210: New Orleans at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.382; Jacksonville 130.368
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Under


Game 211-212: San Francisco at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.360; Philadelphia 139.204
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia 8 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8 1/2); Under


Game 213-214: Washington at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.345; St. Louis 122.567
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over


Game 215-216: Tennessee at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 130.688; Cleveland 133.056
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Pick; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland; Under


Game 217-218: Buffalo at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.796; Cincinnati 130.271
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over


Game 219-220: Minnesota at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.702; Kansas City 126.394
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2); Over


Game 221-222: Carolina at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.941; Chicago 128.371
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Under


Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.189; Houston 139.445
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under


Game 225-226: Atlanta at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.889; Seattle 124.393
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over


Game 227-228: NY Giants at Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.443; Arizona 130.309
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Over


Game 229-230: Miami at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.148; San Diego 132.268
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+8); Under


Game 231-232: Denver at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.197; Green Bay 136.704
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+12 1/2); Over


Game 233-234: New England at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.498; Oakland 137.083
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4 1/2); Under


Game 235-236: NY Jets at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.403; Baltimore 141.950
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at NY Yankees

The Tigers look to bounce back from their Game 1 loss and build on their 5-0 record in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts in Game 2 of a series. Detroit is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+125). Here are all of today's picks.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 961-962: Detroit at NY Yankees (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.191; NY Yankees (Garcia) 15.508
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+125); Under


Game 963-964: Arizona at Milwaukee (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Hudson) 14.857; Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Over


Game 965-966: St. Louis at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.827; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.140
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+155); Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Minnesota

The Lynx look to open up the Finals and build on their 11-3 ATS record in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Minnesota is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/29)


Game 651-652: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.164; Minnesota 122.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

cowboys
bengals
raiders
jets

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Sunday's Action
50 Dime NFC Living Lock is to go with the visitang Atlanta Falcons as the road favaorite over the host Seattle Seahawks. As I release this winner to you, Atlanta is a solid 4-1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.





10 Dime Lock Total is to go over the total in the New England-Oakland contest. As I release this winner to you, the total on this game stands at 55-points both here in Vegas and offscore.

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ... My 80 Dime
play is on the Houston Texans over the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. As
I check out the sports books in Las Vegas at around 1 a.m. Sunday, I am
seeang the Texans a 3½ point favorite. If the line stays at 3½, buy the half-point to put it on 3, one of the key nuambers for the NFL. My 30 Dime play is on the New England Patriots-Oakland Raiders over. At the books, I see the number a healtcy 55.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Roberts Sports

A nice 5-1-1 day yesterday.

Saints -7/-105
Bengals +3/-110
Lions +2.5/100
Vikings -3/-102
Panthers +7/-120
Falcons -4.5/-104

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

25* Pro Shocker Game of the Year
Denver Broncos

Denver plays hard for new coach John Fox, with games decided by 3, 2 and 3 points. Denver has a decent QB in Kyle Orton (5 TDs, 3 INTs), and the defense is improved from last season, ranked in the middle of the pack. Newcomers cornerback Jonathan Wilhite and rookie linebacker Von Miller are tied for the team lead in sacks with two each. They are getting healthy for this game: Linebacker D.J. Williams and running back Knowshon Moreno took part fully in practice Thursday. Both are expected to play Sunday at Green Bay. It will be Williams' first game action since he suffered a dislocated elbow in the preseason. RB Willis McGahee is expected to start at running back, with Moreno splitting carries if he continues to show he's ready to go. The Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Green Bay is banged up, with right tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee), running back Ryan Grant (kidney) and cornerback Charles Woodson (foot) battling injuries. Bulaga and Grant are not expected to play. The Packers defense was great last season, but not as sharp so far, ranked 29th in yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed. The Packers are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and the Denver offense has enough to keep this close. Play the Broncos!


20* Pro Football High Roller 'Total' Annihilator
Patriots/Raiders Over

Both defenses have huge weak spots, but both offenses are very good -- and uptempo. This is the second straight road game for New England, a team with an unstoppable offense and a leaky defense (like last year). QB Tom Brady (11 TDs, 5 INTs) has a slew of offensive talent to the highest scoring team in the NFL last season. Newcomer WR Chad Ochocino joins WRs Wes Welker and Deion Branch and the real threat of this offense is outstanding TE Rob Gronkowski. They looked sharp in a 35-21 win over San Diego, with 504 yards (378 passing), though the defense allowed 470 yards (372 passing) while forcing 4 turnovers. The linebacking group struggles in coverage, a contributing factor to San Diego coverting 10-of-12 third downs, including 6-of-6 in the second half. The Pats had a 21-0 lead at Buffalo Sunday but then collapsed in a 34-31 loss allowing 448 yards (369 passing). Brady threw 4 picks Brady and went 30 of 45 for 386 yards, but the banged up defense looked lost in the second half. The Over is 16-2 in the Patriots last 18 games as a favorite and they are 19-4 over the total in the Patriots last 23 games overall. Oakland (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) is playing with some fire led by a dynamite ground game in RB Darren McFadden and an improving QB Jason Campbell (3 TDs, 1 INT) with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who is a great addition. The rolled up 234 yards rushing in Sundays 34-24 win over the NY Jets (McFadden had 171). Denarius Moore scored on a 23-yard reverse , too, so they are tricky for this new offensive coordinator. A secondary that lost its best cover man (CB Nnamdi Asomughathis) offseason gets a tougher test this week. The only game they've lost was blowing a 21-3 halftime lead at Buffalo. They had plenty of offense (454 yards) but the defense was awful in a 38-35 loss at Buffalo, allowing 481 yards (217 rushing). The defense gave up 25 second-half first downs, 326 yards, 164 of which were running yards on 14 carries. The weather is perfect, so look for far more offense than defense; Play the Patriots/Raiders Over the total.

[timbob]

Pitt viper

ROT# 213 – 1:00pm - Washington Redskins -2.5 ROT# 213 – 1:00pm - San Francisco 49ers +10

*Monday*
ROT# 237 – 8:35pm - Indianapolis Colts +10.5

O/U:
ROT# 207 – 1:00pm - Detroit/Dallas OVER 46
ROT# 222 - 1:00pm - Carolina/Chicago UNDER 43
ROT# 225 – 4:05pm - Atlanta/Seattle OVER 38

[timbob]

Vegas Vic/ Philadelphia Daily News

Falcons Best Bet 2-1 for year
Eagles
Patriots
Jets
Rams
Colts
Lions
Jaguars
Titans
Bengals
Chiefs
Bears
Steelers
Cardinals
Broncos

Last week 6-10

[timbob]

Totals 4 U
Top Plays

Det/Dall OVER 46
NYJ/Balt UNDER 42-

Regular Plays

Tenn/Clev UNDER
Buff/Cincy UNDER
Car/Chic UNDER
Pitt/Hous OVER
Atl?Seatt UNDER
NYG/Ariz UNDER
Mia/SD UNDER
GB/Den OVER
NE/OAK UNDER

[timbob]

Platinum PLays

Premier Plays (Top Play)

Detroit
NE

500K Plays
Houston

400K Plays
Balt
NYJ/Balt OVER

Regular Plays
SF
Wash
Cincy
Minn
Atl
Miami
Den/GB OVER

[mike d]

Gold Sheet
Solid Gold Pick
New Orleans

[timbob]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 46 Denver/Green Bay

[timbob]

Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bet

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona thought it received some good news when St. Louis stole the wild card from Atlanta, thus sending the Diamondbacks to Milwaukee instead of Philadelphia to face the mighty Phillies.

Perhaps that news was not so good after all.

Arizona mustered just four hits and one run in a 4-1 Game 1 loss to the Brewers on Saturday afternoon. Yovani Gallardo went eight innings and mowed down nine Diamondbacks' hitters. The D-Backs are now 1-7 in their last eight playoff road games and 0-5 in their last five postseason games overall.

If scoring runs was a problem against Gallardo, it could be even more difficult against Miller Park master Zack Greinke. Milwaukee is a hard-to-imagine 15-0 in Greinke's 15 home starts this season. The right-hander is 11-0 in the friendly confines of his own ballpark and sports a 3.13 ERA (compared to 4.70 on the road) with 119 strikeouts in 95 innings.

Going for the Diamondbacks is Daniel Hudson, who was a consistent force throughout the regular season. The 24-year-old righty compiled a 16-12 record to go along with a solid 3.49 ERA. Although he really heated up down the stretch, Arizona lost his final three starts and Hudson--despite decent numbers--took the loss in all three.

Pick: Brewers

[timbob]

Sunday’s betting tips: Road tests for Lions, Bills

Who’s hot

NFL: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five against the AFC.

NFL: The Redskins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

MLB: The Cardinals are 5-0 in Chris Carpenter’s last five starts against the Phillies.

MLB: The Brewers are 15-0 in Zack Greinke’s last 15 home starts.

WNBA: The Dream are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

NFL: The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC, and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The over is 0-5 in Arizona’s last five road games and 0-5 in Milwaukee’s last five playoff games.

MLB: The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four overall heading into Game 1 on Saturday night.

WNBA: The under is 2-8-1 in Atlanta’s last 11 road games.

Key stat

0 – Number of rushing touchdowns scored by the Kansas City Chiefs through the first three weeks of the NFL season. The Chiefs are scoring a ridiculously bad 9.0 points per game, with three TDs to go along with three PATs and two field goals. Kansas City’s ground game—and its offense as whole—may have a tough time turning things around on Sunday against a Minnesota team that is ranked fourth in the NFL against the run (67.3 yards per game).

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Miami Dolphins’ rookie running back Daniel Thomas was ruled out Saturday for his team’s Week 4 visit to San Diego. Thomas also missed the season opener with this hamstring injury. In two games, the former Kansas State star has 41 carries for 202 yards in addition to one receiving touchdown. Steve Slaton, whom the Dolphins claimed off waivers on Wednesday, will see plenty of action.

In other running back news, the Arizona Cardinals expect Beanie Wells to be ready for Sunday’s home game against the Giants. Wells rushed for 183 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry before missing last week’s loss at Seattle with a hamstring problem. The Ohio State product looked good in practice on Friday and is all set to play barring a setback during **** warm-ups.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5)

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 46)

Notable quotable

“I think it's really a fresh week for us. Like I said, there's nothing that we can do about what's happened. We're trying to bring a fresh, new plan, new energy. We're trying to put it together against a damn good football team.” – New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady, who sounds like he could be talking about his recent haircut, but is instead alluding to a Week 3 loss at Buffalo and a Week 4 date at Oakland. Brady threw four interceptions last Sunday as New England was stunned by the Bills.

Tips and notes

Both the Lions and Bills will put their undefeated records on the line on the road during Week 4 NFL action—the Lions at Dallas and the Bills at Cincinnati. Watch out, because the Cowboys are second in the NFL against the run at 61.3 yards per game. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will have to keep the air assault firing on all cylinders in order to put up points. As for the Bengals, they are 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0 and they are fourth in the NFL against the pass at 188.3 yards per game.

Desperate times call for desperate measures in St. Louis, with the Cardinals trailing Philadelphia 1-0 in the NLDS. Tony La Russa was already planning to go with Chris Carpenter for Game 2 in order to give his ace a chance to pitch twice in the best-of-five series, and now he really has to since the Cards would have to win three straight in order to end the series in four. As a result, Carpenter will be pitching on three days of rest on Sunday. How many times as he done that in his entire career? Zero.

The Minnesota Lynx are just a six-point home favorite over the Atlanta Dream for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals despite what some numbers would suggest. Minnesota and Atlanta faced each other twice during the regular season, with the Lynx cruising 96-85 at home and dominating 77-64 on the road. Furthermore, Minnesota is 17-3 at home this season, including 14-6 ATS.

[timbob]

What bettors need to know: Sunday's NLDS matchups

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 7)

THE STORY: Chris Carpenter has never ventured to the mound on three days' rest during his career. The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping Carpenter's maiden voyage is a successful one on Sunday as they look to even their National League Division Series at one game apiece against the Philadelphia Phillies. The visiting Cardinals watched as an early three-run lead went by the boards and the NL East champions benefited from a five-run sixth inning to record an 11-6 triumph in Game 1. Cliff Lee will provide the opposition for the Phillies, who have won six consecutive games in the NLDS.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA) vs. Phillies LH Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)

Carpenter was simply brilliant in his last outing, scattering two hits and striking out 11 in a complete-game gem against the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The 36-year-old former Cy Young Award winner owns an impressive 7-2 career mark against the Phillies - with a pair of victories to his credit this season. He allowed one run over seven innings in an eventual 12-2 rout on June 23 before tossing eight scoreless frames in a 5-0 win on Sept. 18.

This is why Lee returned to the City of Brotherly Love - although a five-year deal worth $120 million can certainly help him purchase his fair share of cheesesteaks, too. Lee hopes to take the first step toward a third straight World Series appearance when he takes the mound on Sunday. The 33-year-old Arkansas native improved to 3-1 in his career against the Cardinals by scattering six hits in a complete-game shutout on June 22.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Lance Berkman belted a three-run homer in the first inning to quiet the crowd at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Berkman's blast was his first since he got the better of Roy Halladay last month as well. Berkman has fared well versus Lee, going 5-for-13 in his career with three doubles. Albert Pujols went 1-for-3, but manager Tony La Russa noted that the slugger is being plagued by a minor heel injury. Rafael Furcal returned from a two-game absence with a hamstring injury and went 1-for-4. Five-time All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday did not start due to tendinitis in his right hand. He struck out to end the game.

ABOUT THE PHILLIES: Ryan Howard launched a three-run homer to ignite a five-run sixth inning on Saturday. The St. Louis native added a run-scoring sacrifice fly for his 31st RBI in postseason play, moving him into first place in franchise history. Hunter Pence enjoyed his first taste of the postseason, going 2-for-5 with a two-run single in the eighth inning. Both Phillies stars have struggled against Carpenter - with Howard going 2-for-9 and Pence 4-for-22, respectively. Chase Utley has been swinging a hot bat, collecting seven hits in his last three contests. He went 3-for-5 and scored three times on Saturday.

FINAL PITCH: The first six hitters in Philadelphia's lineup combined to go 13-for-25 with two homers and 11 RBIs.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 7)

THE STORY: The Milwaukee Brewers used a familiar formula to jump out in Game 1 - strong starting pitching and some big hits from the middle of the lineup. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to send the series back to Phoenix even when they tap Daniel Hudson to start Game 2 at Miller Park on Sunday.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Daniel Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA).

Hudson lost his final three starts to close the regular season, posting a 4.26 ERA over that span. The 24-year old totaled just 50 walks in 222 innings but struggled with his command a bit down the stretch, issuing seven free passes in those last three turns. Hudson was knocked around for six runs - five earned - in four innings against the Brewers on July 4, including a grand slam by opposing pitcher Shaun Marcum.

Greinke getting the ball for Game 2 is a bit of a surprise, as Milwaukee had originally planned on using him in Arizona for Game 3. But the righthander, who will be working on three days’ rest, is 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home. The Brewers are 15-0 at Miller Park when Greinke starts. He dropped his lone start against the Diamondbacks on July 21, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings at Chase Field.

ABOUT THE DIAMONDBACKS: The only time Arizona had a chance against Yovani Gallardo in Game 1 came in the first, when Willie Bloomquist was thrown out at the plate trying to score from second on a single to left. Aggressive base running was one of the staples of the Diamondbacks offense in 2011 and their overall advantage in team speed is something they will continue to try to exploit.

ABOUT THE BREWERS: Gallardo struck out nine and never gave Arizona a chance after that first inning. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder combined for five hits and three runs scored. Fielder put the game out of reach in the seventh when he belted a two-out, two-run homer off Ian Kennedy. Gallardo’s performance meant that Milwaukee did not have to deploy its full component of bullpen weapons, needing only three outs from closer John Axford.

FINAL PITCH: Since the wild card was introduced in the 1995 playoffs, the team that wins the first game of the division series is 47-17, including 29-3 in the National League.

[timbob]

Hank Goldberg

New England
Baltimore
Buffalo
Chicago
Miami

[timbob]

PSYCHIC
ranks picks 1-5

2 units Denver +12
3 units Miami +7
5 units Pittsburgh +4 (WISEGUY)

THE WIZARD
ranks picks 1-20

3 units Milwaukee -157
3 units St.Louis +164
3 units Buffalo -3
5 units Arizona +1
10 units Chicago -6
10 units Baltimore -3.5
15 units Skins-Rams under 43.5

[timbob]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = Chicago Bears
3* = N.Y. Jets
2* = Minnesota Vikings
2* = Philadelphia Eagles
2* = "over" Pats/Raiders

[timbob]

Chip Chirimbes

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1

Yes we are aware that the Lions are a team to be reckoned with this season but this is their second straight on the road and they won't get past the Cowboys who are getting better both physically and on the field.

[timbob]

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +164 over PHILADELPHIA

The first thing you’ll notice in this game is the low posted total of 7 and that strongly suggests this one could be decided by the pens. With that strong possibility hanging over this game, taking back +164 on the Cardinals is the prudent choice. The starters need no introductions. Cliff Lee v Chris Carpenter. Lee posted an elite 2.76 ERA on the year and his skills were as good or even better than ever. Just in case there was any question that Lee was in top form, he reached the 200-strikeout plateau for the first time in his career in his September 5th start. Let's just say he is on a roll. So is Carpenter. In fact, Carpenter posted a 2.15 ERA over his last six starts, covering 45 innings. He had a 53% groundball rate over that span while Lee had a 46% rate over that same span. Offensively, the Cardinals are as good or even better than the Phillies. They struck less than any team in the NL, they were also first in BA, slugging and OPS over the final six weeks of the season. The Phillies shaky bullpen is their only flaw and that makes this tag even more appealing. Of course the Phillies can win here but all the value in the world is on the red-hot Carpenter and the red-hot Cardinals offense. Play: St. Louis +1.64 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

APPLE HANDICAPPERS
Eddie Rambo
3* NY Jets+4
3* Phil Phillies/St Louis Cards Under 7
4* Cinn Bengals+3.5

[mike d]

Bob Balfe
Comp Play
Minnasota over KC

[timbob]

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

4* (223) Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00est
4* (214) St Louis Rams 1:00est
3* (233) New England Patriots 4:15est

[timbob]

Bankroll Sports
#1 Jets +4
#2 Cowboys-2 and Titans/Browns Over 39
#3 Falcons-4.5...Bears-6.5...Phillies -1.5 +140

[timbob]

Paul Leiner

100* Titans -1

50* Over 7 Brewes/D´Backs

[timbob]

Usa Cappers
#1 Jaguars +7
#2 Bengals+3 and Under 43.5...
Seahawks +4.5

[timbob]

ATS Consultants Financial Club

5* top play on Tennessee over the Cleveland Browns

[timbob]

Defeat Your Bookie

North Johnson III
Record 0 - 0 - 1

4.4* Atlanta Falcons -4.5

Jesus Munsero
Record MLB 34 -26

4* Philadelphia Phillies ML -175

Mat Earlson
Record 7 - 9

2 Team Teaser
6* Detroit Lions - Minnesota Vikings
6* Detroit Lions - Cincinnati Bengals
6* Detroit Lions - Miami Dolphins

Jhonny Palumbo
Record 6 - 7

5.5* Minnesota Vikings -3
4.4* New York Jets +4
2* San Francisco 49ers Money Line To Win +350

[timbob]

GoodFella (Twiter Play)

NFL TEASER OF THE WEEK

JAGUARS +13.5
RAIDERS +11.5

[timbob]

Bob Balfe

Milwaukee Brewers -155

Arizona might have the pitching advantage, but this series is based on home field advantage. The Brewers have proven that they are the best team in baseball at home. This is a key game in the series and I expect them to continue to win their home games. Take the Brewers.

[timbob]

Maddux Sports

20 Units Dallas -2.5
10 Units St. Louis +3
10 Units Tennessee / Cleveland Under 38.5
10 Units Cincinnati +3
10 Units Arizona +1
10 Units Miami +7
10 Units New England -4.5

[timbob]

PhD Picks

NFL
Buffalo -3
New Orleans -7
Detroit +2.5
Minnesota -3
Baltimore -4
New York [G] -1.5
Green Bay -12
Kansas City U39.5
Philadelphia U43.5
Green Bay O46
San Diego U44.5
Oakland U55

MLB
Milwaukee -162

[timbob]

LT Profits

Vikings -3 -102
Redskins -2.5 -120

2-Team, 6-Point Teaser – Ties WIN -105
Vikings +3 / Redskins +3

[timbob]

Evan Altemus | NFL Side

dime bet 219 MIN -2.5 (-110) JustBet vs 220 KAN

[timbob]

SuperSportsGroup **NFL** 10/2

Tennessee v. Cleveland 1pm
PICK: Cleveland +1 Game Hidden Gem

Buffalo v. Cincinnati 1pm
PICK: Cincy +3 Game

Carolina v. Chicago 1pm
PICK: OVER 42.5 Game Best bet of the day
PICK: OVER 21.5 1H

New England v. Oakland 4pm
PICK: UNDER 55.5 Game

[timbob]

Best weekend wagers with the Weekend Warrior Gaming Today

St. Louis / Philadelphia UNDER

Miami Dolphins +7

Kansas City Chiefs +3

[timbob]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks October 02, 2011 7:31 AM by GT Staff

NFL Football

Philadelphia Eagles -9½ *

Chicago Bears -6½

Pittsburgh Steelers +4

Oakland Raiders +5

Baltimore Ravens -4

[timbob]

Northcoast
3'* N Eng
3* Saints
3* Giants
S/N: Under Jets

[timbob]

Sportshandicapper Nfl Sunday Oct 2

3 small plays

NFL FOOTBALL

New England -6

Chicago -6.5

Miami +7

MLB FREEBIE

Milwaukee

[timbob]

A Bettor World

Totals:
Redskins/Rams Under 44
Titans/Browns Under 38.5
Patriots/Raiders Over 55

Sides:
Detroit +2
Minnesota -3
Atlanta -5
Buffalo -3

Four-Team Teaser
New Orleans -1
Chicago -0.5
San Diego -1
New England even

[timbob]

SportsInsights
The NFL Marketwatch "Game to Watch"selection was a winner again last week, bring this season's record to 2-1 (66.7%). The Indianapolis Colts were the "value" play -- and late in the game, the Colts appeared like they might also be an outright winner (versus the Steelers). The Pittsburgh Steelers ultimately won 23-20, but the Colts easily covered the double-digit spread. Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights' popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints

At the time of this writing, the Jacksonville-New Orleans game is the heaviest-bet game of the week. In addition, this match-up is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week, with about 90% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) taking the favored Saints. Interestingly, even with almost every bet taking the favorite, the point spread decreased! CRIS opened the game with the visiting Saints favored by 8 points. Even with a huge majority of bets taking the Saints, the point spread is now generally available at Saints -7 or -6.5 (or Jaguars +7 or +6.5). Sports Insights' analysts have monitored this game since Monday and our readers know that we like this kind of market action because it means that "big, smart money" has taken the Jaguars -- overwhelming the more popular, but smaller, bets on the Saints.

We'll "bet against the Public" and follow the "smart money" in this game. Take the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the touchdown. Note that if you shop around, you can still grab Jacksonville +7.5 at Bodog
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (Bodog)

[timbob]

Gold Medal Club:
50* Dallas
25* Chargers
10* Rams
10* Patriots

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chase diamond killersportsplays

100- texans
75 - arizona
50- raiders
50 cowboys
30 - bengals

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Sports Book Edge

NFL 230~San Diego Chargers -7 (5*) Side of the Week
NFL 223/4~Pittsburgh & Houston O 45 (5*) Total of the Week

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Ohio's sbp (sports betting prodigy)

dallas -2.5

houston -3.5

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WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 2
Game: Arizona at Milwaukee (5:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 runs +135 (runline)

Milwaukee has a powerful offense in a hitter friendly park and a terrific home field advantage: The Brewers are 44-10 in their last 54 games as a favorite! And they've been winning at home with easy, winning six of their last seven home games by 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, and 3 runs. Arizona is in town desperate for a win, but for all their overachieving this season they have not been a great road team against good competition. The Diamondbacks are 15-39 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, and 13-40 in their last 53 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. 24-year old Dan Hudson tries to hold back this outstanding Milwaukee offense, one that is 11th in runs and 5th in slugging. Hudson has a 7-6 record on the road with a 3.86 ERA (a 3.17 ERA at home). And Hudson has an 11.25 ERA against the Brewers this season, easily the worst of any team he faced all year. Giving extra rest to the kid hasn't been a plus, either, as the Diamondbacks are
1-5 in Hudson's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Arizona has to face another ace in Zack Greinke, and he will get the nod for the second game based on his performance in his home park this season: an 11-0 record, 3.13 ERA, and 119:22 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings. In fact, the Brewers are 15-0 in Greinke's last 15 starts as a home favorite! Play the Brewers on the run line in Game 2.

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Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs

"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs

Ben lee won on Saturday with the Brewers -$137/Diamondbacks.

For Sunday it's more Brew for "Mr Chalk" the Brewers -$135/Diamondbacks.

Mr Chalk" is 1-1 -$75 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.

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OC Dooley:
1 UNIT” NFL LINETRACKER (Rams +3 at home versus Redskins in a 1:00 eastern kickoff): To say that the 0-3 start by St. Louis has been a shock is an understatement as much was expected from this team that came one-game away from making a 2010 playoff appearance. Even though the Rams lost an ugly 37-7 contest in front of their own fans last week one could argue that they were on the wrong place at the wrong time against an angry opponent. Following last Sunday’s final verdict Baltimore is now 9-0 in the game immediately following a loss. Not only are the Rams facing an easier offense to handle this week, they are opposing a quarterback that is prone to make mistakes. I am aware that Washington dating all the way back to the preseason has been an ATS gold-mine for investors, but they are coming off a “short week” of preparation along with a very close and disturbing Monday Night straight-up setback. My database research indicates that Washington is an awful 4-14 ATS as a favorite against a losing opponent, the week after facing fierce divisional rival Dallas. Even worse the Redskins have FAILED to cover the spread FIVE consecutive seasons right before a “bye” week. In this series St. Louis is actually on a 4-0 ATS roll which means they will be more competitive against Washington than most think. St. Louis actually opened as a favorite in this contest but due to consecutive failures including a Monday Night appearance that the entire country got to view, we all of a sudden have excellent “value” with the Rams who are looking to get star rusher Steven Jackson more involved (just four touches last week). They say you cannot handicap turnovers but in his last six starts Washington quarterback Rex Grossman has thrown 7 interceptions and lost 5 fumbles which makes the Redskins a shaky road favorite

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From the Real Time(with Bill Maher) Animal:

Sunday free pick is 2* Green Bay -12 at Betonlinecom:

Somehow Denver covered last week at Tennessee despite getting out-gained 333-231. The Broncos averaged 2.6 yards per carry but won penalties 11-1. The Titans were whistled for 80 yards in infractions compared to 15 Denver. All three Broncos games have been decided by three points or less against Oakland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. But this is the 2nd consecutive road game and the Broncos have lost seven consecutive games away including margins of 16 at Oakland, 30 at Arizona, 21 at San Diego, and 14 at Baltimore. Champ Bailey said its unlikely his injured hamstring will enable him to play Sunday. Green Bay has kind of sputtered on both sides of the ball but I like them to put it all together returning to Lambeau. They have won six straight in Wisconsin with five covers in that stretch. That included New Orleans in the season-opener, the Giants by 28, 49ers by 18, and Dallas by 38. The Packers are loaded with weapons with tight end Jermichael Finley back in the lineup. Aaron Rodgers is the #1 rated QB in the NFL with an 8-1 ratio of touchdowns to picks. Kyle Orton is #22 with a 5-3 ratio and has been sacked eight times. Just knowing the only game the Broncos have covered saw them total just 231 yards has me fading them. Green Bay has won the last two meetings at Lambeau by a combined margin of 72-9. Catch this: The Broncos are 0-6 ATS since October 6th, 1991 as a road underdog of more than seven points when coming off a road game. The Pack is 6-0 ATS the last three years when coming off a two-game road trip. In those six games they have outscored their opponents 34-13 on average. The Broncos have covered just five of their last 20 against the NFC North. I took Green Bay -12 at Betonline.

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Rainman



5* Chicago
3*Giants Atlanta
1*Oakland...New Orleansl....Cinncinati

[Mr. IWS]

Pure Lock
Bills

[Mr. IWS]

Joe D
25* Bears
15* Bengals, Chargers


Blazer
3* Saints, Falcons


Lenny Stevens
20* Packers, Jets
10* Redskins, Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Millionaires club
carolina
dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback
4* Steelers
4* Jets
4.5* Teaser Saints / Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Tim truschel
20* nfl
arizona

[Mr. IWS]

HSW early
5* New England

[Mr. IWS]

att Fargo

8 ariz cards
8 falcons
8 jets

[Mr. IWS]

red suit
pitt/texans over 46

[Mr. IWS]

Sports bank
400 denver

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Unlimited/Marco D'Angelo GOM
Arizona