10-5-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday's Best Mound Match-up

Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Edwin Jackson, St. Louis Cardinals

Roy Oswalt, (9-10, 3.69 ERA)

The last time Roy Oswalt headed to St. Louis for a big playoff was a wizard. That was back in 2005 when he was with the Astros and he held St. Louis to just three hits and a single run over seven innings to help Houston claim the NL pennant.

Oswalt is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 12 postseason appearances, but this has been a bit of a tough year for the veteran. He had two separate stints on the DL with back problems and had only 93 strikeouts in 24 starts this season.

That said, he did shut out the Cards over seven innings while striking out seven last month and fired six scoreless innings in his regular-season finale against Atlanta.

"I feel like I can still compete," Oswalt told reporters. "When you get to the point where you don't feel like you can compete, that's when you start doubting about pitching. I actually have a few more pitches than I did when I first started. I feel like I can do it another three or four or five years."

Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA)

The St. Louis Cardinals had their eye on Edwin Jackson for a while before they landed him from the White Sox at the deadline. In 13 appearances with the Cards, the 28-year-old is 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA and now has a chance to make a big impression on his sixth big league team.

This will be his first postseason start, but Philadelphia doesn’t have much experience against Jackson as no member on the club has more than seven lifetime at-bats against him.

"They have a lot of depth in the lineup, and there's really no easy outs. You just have to go out and be aggressive, but at the same time, you can't give them too much credit. You have to have confidence in your pitches, and at the end of the day, either you get it done or you don't, there's no in between."

Jackson has been consistent since joining the Cards, allowing more than four runs just twice while yielding only one home run in his last seven starts.

He pitched one inning of relief, giving up a couple of hits but no runs in a 13-6 win over Houston on Sept. 27.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Philadelphia Phillies Have St. Louis Cardinals On Brink
By: Willie Bee


Saint Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (+108, 7.5)

Roy Oswalt has some experience pitching in St. Louis with playoffs on the line. He got the start in the final game at former Busch Stadium in the 2005 NLCS, and helped the Houston Astros win their first and only NL Pennant.

Now part of the ace-filled staff of the Philadelphia Phillies, Oswalt will take the hill at Busch Stadium III on Wednesday night against the Cardinals with a chance to send the NL East Champions to the NLCS for a fourth consecutive season.

St. Louis turns to midseason acquisition Edwin Jackson in hopes of pushing this NLDS to the limit. Opening odds at several sports books had Oswalt and the Phils -125 with an 8-run scoreboard tally.

Philadelphia secured a 2-1 lead in the series with a 3-2 victory in Game 3, the Phils closing on a -120 line. Scoreless through six innings as Cole Hamels and Jaime Garcia battled on the mound, Phillies pinch-hitter Ben Francisco broke the 0-0 tie with a 3-run shot in the top of the seventh, and Charlie Manuel's club held on for the win.

Oswalt (11-13, 3.69) will be making his 11th career postseason start, and fourth since joining the Phillies staff in July 2010. It's been eight days since he last pitched, so his old back that cost him nearly eight weeks on the DL should be well rested.

The 11-year veteran has tons of experience against the Cardinals from his days in Houston; three of his previous playoff starts were vs. St. Louis, and this will be his 32nd career assignment opposite the Redbirds with a 3.17 lifetime ERA in over 212 innings.

Though he missed all that time with the back injury, Oswalt still found himself matching up with the Cards in all three regular season series between the clubs. One of those outings was just before he hit the DL, Oswalt lasting just two innings and giving up four runs in a loss in St. Louis on June 23.

Oswalt rebounded nicely with seven shutout innings vs. the Cardinals a little more than two weeks ago in Philly. Albert Pujols has taken Oswalt deep five times over the years, batting .302 along the way (26-for-86). Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Matt Holliday and Rafael Furcal also have seen Oswalt plenty over the years.

But perhaps the most interesting matchup will be when he faces his former Houston teammate Lance Berkman, who is 3-for-5 (all singles) in their face-offs, all this year. Berkman's swing is slower than it used to be, and so is Oswalt's fastball.

Jackson (16-15, 3.79) is making his first career postseason start, and first appearance against the Phillies since just before he was dealt from the D-Backs to the White Sox near the 2010 trading deadline. St. Louis picked him up from the ChiSox this past July, and Jackson quickly became a dependable arm for Tony La Russa to trot out every fifth day.

The one start in Philadelphia in 2010 while a member of the Arizona rotation is Jackson's lone experience against the club. It just wasn't meant to be his day to begin with having to face Roy Halladay, and the Phils scored five times off Jackson on their way to a 7-1 win.

Jackson does have some playoff experience out of the Rays bullpen during their 2010 AL Pennant campaign, though oddly this will be his first LDS contest. The Cards won his last four starts, and six of the final seven, with the 'under' closing on a 7-2 streak in Jackson's assignments from mid-August on.

Angel Hernandez, umpiring his 15th playoff series and sixth LDS, is in rotation for plate duty in Game 4. The Cuban arbiter posted a 19-14-2 lean to the 'under' during the 2011 season with visitors winning 21 of his 35 assignments. Game 4 of the 2010 ALCS was the last time Hernandez was behind the plate for a postseason game, with Texas taking a 10-3 triumph in New York against the Yankees.

First pitch Wednesday is set for 6:07 p.m. (ET) on TBS on what should be a nice late-afternoon, early-evening in St. Louis. The weatherman is calling for mostly clear skies, temps in the mid-to-upper 70s for the start of the game and a light southeast breeze (RF corner across to LF corner).

Game 5, if necessary, would take place back in Philadelphia on Friday (8:37 p.m.), and feature a mound battle between aces Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Wednesday's Best MLB Bet

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (+100, 8.5)

The Arizona Diamondbacks fended off elimination from the postseason by beating the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. Now, they’ll have to take another duel at Chase Field to force a decisive Game 5.

It wasn’t a fantastic game really in any respect for the Brewers, and they are going to be facing the prospects of blowing a 2-0 series lead if they don’t live to tell about this game. Their offense was nowhere to be found, and Shaun Marcum certainly didn’t have his best stuff, allowing a grand slam as a part of the terrible effort. It was just another microcosm of Milwaukee’s season, as this team plays fantastic ball on the road and terrible ball at home. The good news on Wednesday though, is that Randy Wolf is going to be on the bump for this game. He’s a veteran pitcher with a lot of playoff experience, as he has started almost 400 total games in his career. He went 13-10 with a 3.69 ERA as well, making him one of the more consistent arms on the mound. However, over the course of his last three starts, he allowed 13 runs in just 18.2 innings of work. He also had problems with the long ball, giving up 23 homers on the season, seven of which came in his last five starts.

Arizona’s young team really doesn’t seem to have any nerves right now about facing elimination, and that’s a good sign for this one. A lot has been made about how much Milwaukee needed home field advantage in this series for its own cause, but we know that the D’Backs have a fantastic HFA here at Chase Field as well. Last night’s win was the 52nd of the season here. Now, it’s up to Joe Saunders to keep the season alive for Arizona. The reason that Manager Kirk Gibson probably held Saunders back in this series is because he only has a 5.68 ERA against the Brewers. He also only went 12-13 on the season and allowed five runs in six innings on the final day of the regular season, which guaranteed that the Diamondbacks would have to go on the road to start the playoffs. Saunders only struck out 108 batters against 67 walks, and he allowed 29 home runs on the year. Batters hit .266 against him, which is down 30 points from last year, but it is still a number that is far too high to lead to postseason success.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers Game 4 Pick: We tend to think that the Brewers got their wakeup call with this bad loss in Game 3. Saving Yovani Gallardo for Game 1 of the NLCS would be crucial, especially if that series just by chance happens to start at home. Even if not, going against Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee isn’t a good thing, so the Brew Crew are going to want to save their best arms. This series won’t come back to Milwaukee.

MLB Pick: Brewers -110

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

728- 536 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

23-11 run Free one for WED Phillies w/ Oswalt -115

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Phillies. The deficit is 2,673 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

If Tony The Genius wasn't so slow with the hook for Garcia, Hondo might have ended up with a split yesterday. Instead, his lone winner with the D'backs was overwhelmed by losses with the Cards, Rays (in the series) and Tigers, causing his financial sinkhole to grow to 2,105 maxvills.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch is giving the Cards a shot against Roy Harvey Oswalt -- 20 units of action on Jackson.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Minn Lynx -5.5 (WNBA)

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Minnesota

The Dream look to bounce back from their Game 1 loss and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU defeat. Atlanta is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks


WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST (9/29)


Game 653-654: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.681; Minnesota 119.053
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 163
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Arizona

The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-1 loss and build on their 6-1 record in Randy Wolf's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. Milwaukee is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110). Here are all of today's picks.


WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST


Game 979-980: Philadelphia at St. Louis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Oswalt) 14.805; St. Louis (Jackson) 16.162
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Over


Game 981-982: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 16.402; Arizona (Saunders) 15.364
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Under

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Phillies
Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, October 5

Brewers much better at home (59-24) than on foreign soil (39-43), can they wrap up series on road? Saunders is 3-1, 3.58 in his last four starts; he gave up two runs in seven IP vs Brewers July 20, a game Milwaukee won in 10 innings. Wolf is 1-1, 6.27 in his last three starts; he was 0-2, 6.75 in two starts vs Arizona this season, allowing 10 runs in 13.1 IP. Arizona won six of its last eight home games. Home team won all three games in this series.

Oswalt is 3-3, 4.24 in his last seven starts; he was 1-1, 3.21 in his three starts vs St Louis this year, blanking Cardinals for seven innings only 18 days ago. Under is 4-0-1 in his last five outings. St Louis won six of last seven Jackson starts (2-0, 3.26 in his last six outings); he didn't make a start vs Philly this season. Holliday being restricted to pinch-hitting has obviously hurt St Louis offense- they've been outscored 13-7 from sixth inning on in this series.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Wednesday

Play Philadelphia (-120) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 6:00 PM EST

Philadelphia has won 6 of the last 7 games and they have also won 21 of the last 26 games when playing on a Wednesday. Roy Oswalt has an ERA of 3.16 vs. St. Louis over his career and he has an ERA of 2.61 over the last three starts.

-----------------------------------------------------------------


Play Arizona (-105) over Milwaukee (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

10-3 run

wnba atlanta +6

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Cardinals +106 over Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Cardinals +106 over Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS +461 over Philadelphia Series

ST. LOUIS +108 over Philadelphia

We’re going to play a single unit on St. louis tonight and a single unit on them to win the series. Cards are down 2-1 but a win tonight and they’ll go back to Philly tied 2-2 and then anything can happen with both clubs sending out their aces. First things first and that means the Cardinals have to win tonight and they have a great shot at doing so. At age 27, Edwin Jackson hasn't quite fulfilled the high expectations he's had placed on him. Having said that, he's been pretty good all year with a groundball bias profile a good strikeout rate and a 3.64 xERA. Pitching coach Dave Duncan has been working with him for a over two months now and Duncan is the best in the business that worked magic with young arms a lot less talented that Jackson. Of course Jackson could throw a gem tonight. Roy Oswalt went 9-10 with a club that won a lot more games than they lost. That’s not to say Oswalt is a liability but he’s certainly no better than Jackson and in fact, the two starters today have very similar numbers. Oswalt’s strikeout rate is way down from previous years and his 1.34 WHIP is very average. In a game that is a complete toss-up, the Cardinals definitely have a chance to take this back to Philly and then we’ll have other options to “free roll” or let it ride at a huge price. Play: St. Louis +461 to win series (Risking 1 unit). Play: St. Louis +108 to win game 4 (Risking 2 units)

[Mr. IWS]

BOOKIEASSASSIN-JOHN CHANG
5 DIME* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies (-115, list both pitchers) over ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

BOOKIEASSASSIN-RANDY BRUCE
5 DIME* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies/Saint Louis Cardinals Over 7.5, -110

BOOKIEASSASSIN-RICHIE CARERRA
5 DIME* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies -120 over ST. LOUIS

[Mr. IWS]

Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs
"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs

Ben lee won (4 in a row) again on Tuesday with the Diamondbacks +$105/Brewers.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" is coming right back with the Diamondbacks -$110/Brewers.

Mr Chalk" is 4-1 + $230 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.

[Mr. IWS]

Sportshandicapperking

MLB BASEBALL

Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB FREEBIE

Saint Louis Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Milwaukee -105

Milwaukee / Arizona Under 9

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4* MLB: Milwaukee & Arizona OVER 9
4* WNBA: MINNESOTA Ly*x-ATLANTA DREAM Over

[Mr. IWS]

GAMING TODAY
Consensus Picks October 05, 2011 9:20 AM by GT Staff

BASEBALL PLAYOFF
Philadelphia Phillies -115
Milwaukee Brewers -105

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

3* WNBA* Minnesota Ly*x -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB PREDICTIONS


2* MLB* Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN -104 ML

(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2 units)
Arizona extended their playoffs with a 8-1 victory in front of their home crowd last night, and look to force a Game 5 back in Milwaukee with another win here tonight. The D'backs are sending Joe Saunders to the mound, while the Brewers will counter with southpaw Randy Wolf. These two pitchers have freakishly similar numbers on the season. Saunders is 12-13 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. Randy Wolf is 13-10 on the season with a 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .266 opponents batting average. Wolf has lost to Arizona twice this season, allowing 10 runs in 13.1 innings of work, although he does have solid career numbers against the Dbacks. Saunders faced the Brewers once allowing 2 runs in 7 innings of work in a no decision. With a good pitching match up tonight we have to look at a few key stats that in my opinion give us a lot of value in tonight's match up. The Diamondbacks are coming off a big confident boosting victory last night, and are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a win. Also note that the Dbacks are 42-20 in their last 60 home games, 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs a team with a losing road record, and 12-4 in their last 16 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Saunders' last 5 starts. Overall the Dbacks are 52-30 at home this season. Milwaukee was just 39-43 on the road this year, although they did improve in the second half. The Brewers are 11-23 in their last 34 games as a road underdog. This game is bouncing around "pick'em" odds tonight, which gives us value on the home side. Arizona always plays well at home, and coming off a big win last night are feeling good about tonight's game as they look to force a Game 5. Lay it down on the Dbacks with confidence tonight for a 2 unit play.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Philadelphia Phillies -118

The Cardinals had 14 guys left on base yesterday in a game which they did outplay the Phillies. The postseason is all about taking advantage of opportunities. The Phillies had a pinch hitter off the bench win that game for them. This team has the experience needed to move on to the next round. Philadelphia knows they got away with one yesterday and will leave no doubt tonight. No team wants to bring a series back home for one game. The Phillies will win this on the road.


Arizona Diamondbacks -103

Milwaukee is a great home team. That is really the only thing they have. As long as they win their home games they will be OK, but Arizona now has the momentum and their fans were rocking last night in the desert. The ballpark had an electric atmosphere that the players fed off. I look for similar results tonight. This game should go to 5 back in Milwaukee. Take Arizona.