10-16-11

[timbob]

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[timbob]

Big Al

8-4 yesterday

5* Giants -3
4* Bills/Giants under 50
4* Patriots/Cowboys under 54
4* Rams +14.5
4* Colts +7
4* Panthers/Falcons under 50.5
3* Lions -4
3* Panthers +3.5

MLB
5* Brewers

NHL
3* Ducks

[timbob]

BRANDON LANG

100 dime play = Baltimore - 7
20 dime dog #1 = Carolina + 3 1/2
20 dime dog #2 = Dallas + 6 1/2

[timbob]

ROOT

Fortune 500
Dallas

[timbob]

ben burns

10* big easy falcons -5
10* personal favorite giants -3
10* best bet browns +7.5
9* under st louis/milwaukee
9* bears -1
10 blue chip under 41.5 Bears/vikings

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

6% NY Giants
4% Atlanta
4% New Orleans
3% Philly
3% Minnestota
4% Over Oakland
3% Over Atlanta
3% Under Baltimore

[Mr. IWS]

Root

no limit tampa
bilionaire atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

2 star Rams
2 star Cowboys

opinion Eagles

[timbob]

Larry Ness' 10* 28-Club Play-NFL (signature release: 2nd TY / won 1st)
My 10* 28-Club Play is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

The Bills, like the Lions, entered the 2011 season having not made the playoffs since 1999. Both teams are off to terrific starts in 2011, the Lions checking in as one of just two unbeaten teams through five weeks (Packers are the other), while the Bills are right behind them at 4-1, tied with the Pats for the AFC East lead. Also similar to the Lions, the Bills own two HUGE comeback wins in the early going of 2011. They rallied from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Raiders 38-35 in Week 2 and then from 21-0 down vs New England in Week 3, to win 34-31. The win over the Pats snapped a 15-game losing streak against New England. Just this past week, the Bills beat the “Dream Team” (better known as the hapless Eagles) 31-24, forcing five turnovers (intercepted Vick FOUR times). What all three of the above wins have in common are, all were played in Buffalo. The Bills will have a much tougher time here on the road, as for the second straight week they face a frustrated an angry NFC East team, fresh of a disturbing home loss. It was the Eagles last week (had blown a 23-3 lead at home vs the 49ers the previous week in Philly) and this week it’s the Giants (lost at home 36-25 to the Seahawks, as Eli accounted for FIVE turnovers!). The Giants have been a poor home favorite these last two seasons (4-10 ATS in 2009 & 2010) and are now 1-1 in that role this year after losing to the Seahawks but the circumstances here greatly favor the G-men. The Giants HAVE to realize that the NFC East is theirs for the taking. The Eagles (1-4) have ‘IMPLODED’ in the early going, while the Cowboys have spent the first month explaining how much faith they have in Romo (no matter how many times he ‘gives games away’) and at 2-2 visit New England this Sunday. The Giants ‘gave one away’ themselves last Sunday (or at least Eli did with FOUR interceptions and a lost fumble) but at 3-2, only the questionable 3-1 Redskins (led by the late, great Rex Grossman at QB) are ahead of them in the division. The Giants have a bye next week and return to host the Dolphins (currently 0-4), so a 5-2 record seems well within their grasp. In fact, it BETTER BE, as after Miami, here’s what the Giants face the last nine games of the season; at New England, at San Francisco, home to Philly, at New Orleans, home to Green Bay, at Dallas, home to Washington, at the NY Jets and home to Dallas. If the Giants aren’t 5-2 after the Miami game (really needed to be 6-2 but that ‘bus has left the station’ with the loss to the Seahawks), they may as well begin looking ahead to 2012. The Giants have fallen from “elite status” since falling apart at the end of the 2008 season and as the commercial says, “they haven’t gotten back up!” However, they are still a BETTER team than the overrated Bills, who are NOT the Lions. Buffalo ranks in the bottom-six defensively in yards allowed (29th, allowing 421.8 YPG), passing yards (283.4 YPG) and rushing yards (31st at 138.4 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Buffalo also ranks dead-last in sack percentage with just FIVE in 190 pass attempts. Note that the Bills were outgained in their 23-20 loss at Cincinnati 458-273 in Week 4 and even in last week’s win over Philly, were outgained 489-331. The Buffalo defense has permitted a WHOPPING 49 FDs the last two weeks and quite frankly, the Bills have gotten to 4-1 this season mostly because of them leading the NFL in turnover ratio at plus-11 (16 takeaways are tops in the NFL). That’s quite a turnaround from last year, when the Bills owned the worst turnover ratio in the NFL (minus-17) and at minus-142 points, had the worst point-differential of all AFC teams (finished 4-12). Fitzgerald has made people realize a Harvard-boy can compete in this league at the QB position but note that while he averaged 280.3 YPG with nine TDs and three INTs in Buffalo's first three games (3-0 start), he’s been under 200 yards in each of the team's last two games while throwing one TD pass in 61 attempts (good news is, he’s had just one INT, as well). However, while the Giants pass D has some ‘holes,’ it has allowed just five TD passes in five games (five INTs) and its pass rush leads the entire NFl with 18 sacks. Fitzgerald will need a lot of help from RB Fred Jackson, who has topped 100 yards in THREE of five games (480 YR / 5.3 YPC / 5 TDs). Expect Coughlin and the Giants to be at their “physical-best” in this game and remember, the Giants typically play well this time of year, posting a 19-7-1 ATS record over their last 27 October games. I realize the Giants are NOT strong home favorites but look this number. The Giants are hovering at right around a three-point favorite. Note that in Week 1, the Chiefs opened as 6 1/2-point home favorites against this Buffalo team (closed 3 1/2). Yes, the Bills won 41-7 but let me remind all, that the Chiefs (despite a 2-3 record), own the worst point-differential (minus-73) of any NFL team. This line is a joke!

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 6 Total (19-6, 76% s/2010)
My 10* NFL Week 6 Total is on Phi/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

The Eagles won the NFC East last year at 10-6 while the Redskins finished last at 6-10. However, as these two rivals meet for the first time in 2011, they’ve switched places. The “Dream Team” is a woeful 1-4 (in last place) while the surprising Redskins are 3-1 and leading the NFC East, coming off their bye week. Staying away from a predicted winner in this game, I’m using this contest as my Week 6 10* Total. Philly has a terrific offense, which has been just ‘killed’ by turnovers. Yes, Vick has taken a beating, but he’s completing 62.1 percent of his throws for 267.2 YPG and eight TD passes. He’s added 318 yards rushing (8.4 YPC) with three more TDs. RB McCoy was a non-factor in Week 4 vs the 49ers but in his other four games, he’s averaged 106.3 YPG on the ground. He’s got 443 yards on the season (5.8 YPC) with five TDs plus has 19 catches for two more TDs. Vick’s got a nice trio of WRs in Jackson (21 for an average of 19.5 YPC), Maclin (32 with three TDs) and Avant (23). That puts Maclin on pace fro around 100 receptions while Avant and Jackson should catch around 70. Philly has averaged 28.9 PPG in three 2011 road games and after holding the Rams to 13 points in Week 1 (StL is the NFL’s lowest-scoring team at 11.5 PPG), has allowed 35 in Atlanta and 31 at Buffalo. The Washington defense has good early numbers, allowing just 15.8 PPG. The pass D has 15 sacks (3.75 per game ranks 1st in the league) and is holding opponents to 54.6 percent completions (just three TDs) for an opposing QB rating of 73.5 (3rd-best). The rush D ranks 6th (84.5 YPG / 4.3 YPC). However, let me note that two of Washington’s games have come against Arizona and St Louis (a combined 1-8) and the other two vs the NY Giants (banged up in Week 1) and Dallas, which gave the Redskins their lone loss. Dallas moved the ball well in that game but settled for six FGs. The Eagles offense will move the ball against the Washington defense and sooner or later, the turnovers HAVE to end. Vick has seven INTs and two lost fumbles, leading the way for a team with the most giveaways in the NFL (15) and one which is tied with Pittsburgh for the worst turnover ratio (minus-10). Note that no other team is worse than minus-five on the season. Washington’s running game can’t quite decide which one of its three backs is the team's “featured” one. Hightower had 168 yards in the first two games but just 65 in the last two. Helu had 74 yards in Week 2 but a total of only 52 yards in Washington’s other three games. Torain did not paly in any of Washington’s first three games but then had 135 yards in Week 4. However, the good news is, Philly’s rush D ranks 30th (140.2 YPG / 5.0 YPC), That should make Rex Grossman’s job easier. It’s hard to trust Grossman with his history but the Philly pass D has allowed 63.7% completions, 11 TD passes with just three INTs and owns the third-worst opposing QB rating of any NFL team (104.3). Why won’t the Redskins be able to score? Getting back to Philly, Vick will be returning to the site of what was likely the best game of his career in a 59-28 rout last November 15. He threw an 88-yard touchdown pass to DeSean Jackson on the Eagles' first play from scrimmage and became the first player in NFL history to amass at least 300 yards passing (333), 50 yards rushing (80), four passing TDs and two rushing TDs in one contest. This one ‘sails over’ fairly easily, in a season of high-scoring.

Good luck...Larry