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poopoo333
11-01-2011, 11:45 AM
Jose Aldo/Chad Mendes

poopoo333
11-01-2011, 03:26 PM
Anthony Johnson/Vitor Belfort

MMA_scientist
11-01-2011, 04:47 PM
Anthony Johnson/Vitor Belfort

AJ finally @ MW? He made weight last time...

Luke
11-01-2011, 05:01 PM
WTF............why go to 185 now, was within a fight or two of GSP

SPX
11-01-2011, 05:10 PM
PP, I thought you were trolling until I read it for myself.

Awesome matchup, but it makes no sense. . .

poopoo333
11-01-2011, 06:15 PM
So who wins?

Svino
11-01-2011, 06:34 PM
Vitor's got this.

poopoo333
11-01-2011, 06:48 PM
http://www.cdn.sherdog.com/thumbnail_crop/600/_images/pictures/20110801085738_IMG_4605.JPG

zY|
11-01-2011, 07:59 PM
Anthony Johnson/Vitor Belfort

OH snap, son. This is MANLY fucking matchmaking.

MMA_scientist
11-01-2011, 08:33 PM
So who wins?

Going to be a rape. AJ playing the part of helpless female, Vitor playing the guy popping out of the bushes with duct tape and a rusty knife.

SPX
11-02-2011, 02:23 PM
http://i904.photobucket.com/albums/ac245/steroidsrcool/anto.jpg

Luke
11-02-2011, 07:43 PM
^^^^^damn........just damn

SPX
11-02-2011, 08:12 PM
Could just be the angle, but he even looks bigger than Jones. . .

SPX
11-02-2011, 09:23 PM
War Victor Belfort

With that said, I could see AJ catching him.

zY|
11-02-2011, 09:26 PM
Not really relevant. He obviously fat as shit there. I'm sure after a fight he completely slobs out for months at a time.

SPX
11-02-2011, 09:29 PM
I couldn't imagine a fat, say, Matt Hughes sitting there and dwarfing guys in higher weight classes.

zY|
11-02-2011, 09:47 PM
Oh he's definitely huge for the weight class, but let's not make him bigger than he is. He's very OBVIOUSLY a bloated fat fuck there. He doesn't even look like the same guy that shows up in the cage.

Seriously, he looks like goddamn Fat Albert in that picture. Look at him. 'HEY HEY HEY!'

SPX
11-02-2011, 09:51 PM
I'd really like to see him with his shirt off.

I mean, he may be fat for a fighter, but he'd probably still be more muscular and lean looking than an average guy.

zY|
11-02-2011, 09:53 PM
Tub of lard.

Luke
11-02-2011, 10:26 PM
I'd really like to see him with his shirt off.

I mean, he may be fat for a fighter, but he'd probably still be more muscular and lean looking than an average guy.


Remember what James Toney looked like...................

Luke
11-02-2011, 10:29 PM
This fight still makes no sense from Johnson's perspective. The only things I came up with are:

1. Dana promised him next crack at the Sonnen-Silva winner if he gets a win

or

2. He's getting a big check and Dana told him if he loses he can go back to 170 and still keep in spot in line for GSP


That's all I got ........

SPX
11-02-2011, 10:38 PM
Well they definitely need to find a couple of legit opponents for Silva. There is, of course, Sonnen. But other than him, the only guy who I could see them trying to hype is Cung Le, and he at least needs to beat Wanderlei and get a couple of more wins.

poopoo333
11-02-2011, 10:45 PM
I don't think Cung Le has a shot at beating Anderson Silva, but he is definitely marketable for a fight.

zY|
11-02-2011, 10:53 PM
Personally I don't care what Johnson's motivations are or aren't, this is a badass fight.

zY|
11-02-2011, 10:53 PM
LOL at Chun Li as title challenger.

SPX
11-02-2011, 11:14 PM
LOL at Chun Li as title challenger.


I don't think Cung Le has a shot at beating Anderson Silva, but he is definitely marketable for a fight.


I don't think Le would win, but there's not really anyone else. Stann just got shut down by Sonnen. Marquardt's gone. Munoz . . . no. Maia and Belfort have already gotten their chance. Bisping . . . lol.

I guess they could bring Rockhold over and do a champ vs champ match.

Luke
11-03-2011, 09:21 PM
LOL at Chun Li as title challenger.


LOL @ Le ever beating a top 15 opponent

poopoo333
11-08-2011, 11:48 AM
Terry Etim/Edson Barboza added

poopoo333
11-08-2011, 11:50 AM
Sam Stout/Thiago Tavares added

poopoo333
11-14-2011, 08:05 PM
Stanislav Nedkov vs. Fabio Maldonado Added to UFC 142 (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/11/14/2562141/stanislav-nedkov-vs-fabio-maldonado-added-to-ufc-142)
Siyar Bahadurzada to Face Erick Silva at UFC 142 (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/11/14/2561322/report-siyar-bahadurzada-to-face-erick-silva-at-ufc-142)

Vandelay
11-14-2011, 09:51 PM
Um, maldanado -400?

poopoo333
11-14-2011, 10:23 PM
Um, maldanado -400?

Probably not

Vandelay
11-14-2011, 10:40 PM
I'm hoping he comes in around -200

poopoo333
11-15-2011, 05:02 PM
Thiago Silva/James Te Huna rumored

poopoo333
11-16-2011, 08:47 AM
UFC NEWS – Palhares Returns Against Massenzio At UFC 142 In Brazi

SPX
11-16-2011, 10:09 AM
Thanks for this piece of UFC NEWS.

All in on Palhares.

Thewisemann
11-16-2011, 11:32 AM
Thanks for this piece of UFC NEWS.

All in on Palhares.
at a glance Palhares seem about 90% to win this

SPX
11-16-2011, 11:54 AM
Yeah, I think Massenzio will need something flukey to win this, because I think Palhares is better everywhere. I'd be happy to get Palhares at anything better than -500.

Vandelay
11-16-2011, 05:57 PM
palhares should never be over -300. Bad gastank and iffy striking defense. not to mention he is just begging to get a dq or points taken away. He almost blew it against miller by getting flash koed and then herb dean feeling bad that he jumped on the cage so he let him continue.

MMA_scientist
11-17-2011, 10:02 AM
I don't see how Massenzio can beat Palhares, barring a DQ or something weird. Massenzio is not the guy to take advantage of his poor striking defense, if he had poor striking defense. As far as gas tanks go, Massenzio gassed out and git subbed by Brian f'n Stann. Palhares will be at least -500 IMO, and I will probably still bet it.

Thewisemann
11-17-2011, 10:08 AM
Yea, ill Prolly take him to -600

poopoo333
11-22-2011, 02:59 PM
Report: Paulo Thiago vs. Mike Pyle Booked for UFC 142 in Rio

,,

SPX
11-22-2011, 03:30 PM
That should be a good fight. Hope Pyle comes in as a dog.

edman5555
11-22-2011, 08:18 PM
Thiago Silva/James Te Huna rumored

I think Silva destroys him.

SPX
11-22-2011, 08:25 PM
I was thinking the same thing when I heard about that fight. It would certainly be a big upset if Te Huna won.

Of course, this should be an un-roided Silva, but I doubt it will matter much.

edman5555
11-22-2011, 08:29 PM
Yeah I was thinking about that, him being unroided. Maybe he won't even be unroided, he will just cycle down intelligently. Either way, I don't see what Tuna does better than him.

SPX
11-22-2011, 08:30 PM
I think ol' Tuna would probably just have to catch him with a punch. Barring that, Silva should win, and probably not with a great deal of difficulty.

poopoo333
11-22-2011, 08:40 PM
Yeah, Silva would just take him down and win easy if that fight is actually going to happen.

poopoo333
11-24-2011, 12:02 AM
Jose Aldo: Chad Mendes Doesn't Know What He's Getting Into (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/11/23/2582779/aldo-mendes-doesnt-know-what-hes-getting-into)

poopoo333
11-24-2011, 04:34 PM
Alcantara vs. Omigawa, Arantes vs. Carvalho added to UFC 142 in Brazil (http://mmajunkie.com/news/26250/alcantara-vs-omigawa-arantes-vs-cavalho-added-to-ufc-142-in-brazil.mma)

poopoo333
11-27-2011, 06:04 PM
Thoughts on Tavares/Stout? I think Tavares might be able to win that one handily.

SPX
11-27-2011, 06:59 PM
Thoughts on Tavares/Stout? I think Tavares might be able to win that one handily.

The last time I expected Tavares to win something handily this happened. . .


http://imgboot.com/images/igorvanhoe/shanerollerktfothiagotavaresufconversus3.gif

poopoo333
12-12-2011, 09:48 PM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/474.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

SPX
12-12-2011, 09:49 PM
Damn, fucking 5dimes. If I could get to that line I'd definitely put something on Mendes.

poopoo333
12-12-2011, 10:06 PM
Fuck, I should have grabbed it @+240. I thought it would hold, not go down to +175. It stuck around +250 the last time this fight was supposed to happen.

Ludo
12-12-2011, 10:32 PM
That was before Aldo was getting ground and pounded almost to the point of stoppage by Mark Hominick in the fifth round.

poopoo333
12-12-2011, 10:52 PM
That was before Aldo was getting ground and pounded almost to the point of stoppage by Mark Hominick in the fifth round.

This was set up after 129 originally...for 133.

SPX
12-13-2011, 12:01 AM
That was before Aldo was getting ground and pounded almost to the point of stoppage by Mark Hominick in the fifth round.

Did you ever REALLY think that fight was close to getting stopped?

poopoo333
12-13-2011, 12:02 AM
Did you ever REALLY think that fight was close to getting stopped?

I was nervous..I didn't want Luke to be like "I told you so" to all of us on the Machida/Aldo/GSP parlay.

Ludo
12-13-2011, 12:04 AM
Did you ever REALLY think that fight was close to getting stopped?

I was also in on the Aldo/Machida/GSP parlay action and I remember being scared shitless that Aldo was too tired to keep it from getting stopped.

SPX
12-13-2011, 12:05 AM
Ha ha.

I never thought it was even close. It would take the shittiest ref to stop that fight. Yes, Hominick was landing some punches, but Aldo was still being quite active from the bottom and defending well enough to where you never thought he was in serious danger or "not intelligently defending."

Ludo
12-13-2011, 02:21 AM
It wasn't so much a fear that the fight might be stopped by the Ref, but more that Aldo wasn't using his hands to protect his face and he was taking several shots while Hominick was postured up. In the fifth round of a fight where Aldo is clearly exhausted it wasn't irrational to be nervous that Hominick might knock him out with a bunch of clean shots postured up.

SPX
12-13-2011, 02:31 AM
I think I had money on Aldo in that one and I wasn't concerned, but I do agree that it's not irrational.

Ludo
12-16-2011, 04:20 PM
http://mmajunkie.com/news/26578/gabriel-gonzaga-returns-at-ufc-142-meets-ednaldo-oliveira-on-prelims.mma
Former UFC heavyweight title challenger Gabriel Gonzaga (12-6 MMA, 8-5 UFC) is returning to the UFC.

The fighter has signed a new multi-fight deal with the organization and
now meets fellow Brazilian Ednaldo Oliveira (13-0-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) as an
injury replacement for Rob Broughton (15-7-1 MMA, 1-2 UFC) at next
month's UFC 142 event.

Gonzaga's management today announced (http://www.linkbjj.com/news.cfm) the booking. MMAjunkie.com (http://mmajunkie.com/) (www.mmajunkie.com) subsequently confirmed it with sources close to the event.

UFC 142 takes place Jan. 14 at Rio de Janeiro's HSBC Arena, and the
night's main card airs on pay-per-view. The prelims, including Gonzaga
vs. Oliveira, air on FX.

Gonzaga, who was once a top-10 heavyweight, went 8-5 in the UFC from
2005 to 2010. Although he briefly considered retirement, he returned to
the cage back in October at a Reality Fighting show in Connecticut,
where he submitted Parker Porter to win the organization's heavyweight
belt.

Gonzaga, who defeated and stunned Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic in a 2007
title eliminator, ultimately suffered a knockout loss to then-UFC champ
Randy Couture. The UFC released released him in 2010 following a 1-3 run
against a murderers' row of heavyweights that included Shane Carwin,
Junior Dos Santos and Brendan Schaub.

Oliveira (whose first name sometimes is spelled "Edinaldo") made his pro
debut in 2005 and has been a fixture on Brazil's regional circuit. The
heavy-handed Brazilian has picked up eight knockouts in 13 career wins.
Most recently, the 6-foot-7 fighter scored a first-round knockout of
Nalzinho Novaes. He's fought six times in 2011 with a 5-0 record (and
one no-contest due to an eye poke).

MMA_scientist
12-16-2011, 04:21 PM
Lol @ Schaub being included in the "murderer's row" of HW's.

SPX
12-16-2011, 04:42 PM
Schaub's done well enough, I think. In any case, I don't think Gabe's return will be particularly long-lived unless they only give him middle-tier fights.

poopoo333
12-16-2011, 08:24 PM
Bahadurzada, Broughton, Nedkov scratched from UFC 142; Thiago also reported out (http://www.investwithsports.com/news/26577/bahadurzada-broughton-nedkov-scratched-from-ufc-142-thiago-also-reported-out.mma)

SPX
12-16-2011, 08:28 PM
Were they all in the same car together when it went off the bridge?

Ludo
12-16-2011, 08:30 PM
Were they all in the same car together when it went off the bridge?

Probably Staph from training at the same brazilian gym.

Luke
12-16-2011, 11:29 PM
Were they all in the same car together when it went off the bridge?


::lolzorz::

repped

trotterz
12-22-2011, 01:34 PM
line opened at Johnson +136 / Belfort -119
now Johnson -119 / Belfort -109

SPX
12-22-2011, 01:37 PM
Damn, if that shit holds I'm gonna have to get me some Belfort.

I figured he would be -175 or worse.

MMA_scientist
12-22-2011, 01:50 PM
Damn, if that shit holds I'm gonna have to get me some Belfort.

I figured he would be -175 or worse.

+1 Why is the line so close?

SPX
12-22-2011, 01:59 PM
I guess Johnson's recent domination of Hardy and Brenneman is fresh on everybody's minds.

MMA_scientist
12-22-2011, 02:02 PM
Belfort opened at -170 on 5D... he is the underdog now. I am going to make a bet on him now, because I don't see any reason for that to hold. I think AJ is not even a top level WW and this is his first fight at MW against one of the best all around fighters in any division.

poopoo333
12-26-2011, 09:14 PM
What do you homos like on this card?

SPX
12-26-2011, 09:52 PM
Belfort, Palhares, Mendes, and Pyle at this point.

poopoo333
12-26-2011, 09:57 PM
I like Palhares, Mendes, and Pyle as well. Probably a Pyle/Palhares parlay, since they will both be pretty steep favorites. Belfort/Johnson is tough, but I slightly lean Belfort, AJ won't have a huge size advantage, Belfort is a huge MW. I also like Tavares to beat Stout.

SPX
12-26-2011, 10:01 PM
Also, Belfort will be BY FAR the best striker AJ has ever faced. I won't be shocked if AJ wins, but really I expect Belfort to blow him out in the first round like he does to everyone else not named Silva.

I think if AJ is smart he'll come to wrestle.

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 12:42 PM
First UFC of 2012...let's get crackin BREHS



MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

Champ Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes (for featherweight title)
Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson
Mike Massenzio vs. Rousimar Palhares
Carlo Prater vs. Erick Silva
Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)


Sam Stout vs. Thiago Tavares
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Ednaldo Oliveira
Yuri Alcantara vs. Michihiro Omigawa
Ricardo Funch vs. Mike Pyle
Caio Magalhaes vs. Fabio Maldonado
Felipe Arantes vs. Antonio "Pato" Carvalho

Luke
12-31-2011, 12:45 PM
Too soon poopoo. You know here at IWS we have a 3-5 day grieving period after each event

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 12:46 PM
Too soon poopoo. You know here at IWS we have a 3-5 day grieving period after each event

That's the worst logic regarding MMA I have ever heard.

Mr. IWS
12-31-2011, 12:57 PM
Length of time does not matter.

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 02:25 PM
Gabriel Gonzaga's last fight:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiheaF-yfo8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXnzt0yJH5Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWn-aUD5u1U&feature=related

SPX
12-31-2011, 02:27 PM
Length of time does not matter.

BOL!!!!!!!

Took me about an hour to figure this out, but now that I have, it's funny!

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 02:30 PM
BOL!!!!!!!

Took me about an hour to figure this out, but now that I have, it's funny!

I don't get it.

SPX
12-31-2011, 02:38 PM
He's cracking on Vandelay's comment about how size doesn't matter.

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 02:53 PM
Ok after briefly looking...this card sucks ass for betting. Lots of close fights and random Brazilian gays.

poopoo333
12-31-2011, 06:58 PM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/4813.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

-335/+265 opener

SPX
12-31-2011, 09:39 PM
I would've taken Harris at -335 fo sho.

Luke
01-01-2012, 02:16 AM
That's the worst logic regarding MMA I have ever heard.



Length of time does not matter.


Funny fuckers in here today I see.

poopoo333
01-01-2012, 10:19 AM
Chad Mendes vs Jose Aldo - UFC 142 propositions


Sat 1/14

1003 Mendes/Aldo goes 5 round distance

-170





11:00PM

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

+130





Anthony Johnson vs Vitor Belfort - UFC 142 propositions


Sat 1/14

1103 Johnson/Belfort goes 3 round distance

+180





10:30PM

1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-260

SPX
01-01-2012, 02:46 PM
That Aldo/Mendes distance prop at +130 doesn't look bad. . .

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 11:01 AM
http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/1488327-aldo-250-a.html

MMA_scientist
01-03-2012, 11:25 AM
^ What a ridiculous way to spend your life.

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 11:26 AM
Aldo is cursed now. Mendes will win.

I put a bet on Mendes the other day @+200.

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 02:08 PM
Bookmaker just opened -235 Barboza, +175 Etim

SPX
01-03-2012, 02:12 PM
Don't like that line. . .

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 02:14 PM
I want to keep riding the Barboza hype train, but his last 2 fights have been way too close. How is Etim's striking? Will he come to grapple?

mike
01-03-2012, 03:54 PM
I want to keep riding the Barboza hype train, but his last 2 fights have been way too close. How is Etim's striking? Will he come to grapple?

Etims striking is technically sound but no where near Barboza. he doesnt have good takedown either iirc. anyways i put 5u to win 2u at -260.

edman5555
01-03-2012, 03:57 PM
etims record is pretty good. He beat Sam stout 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. He has 12 sub wins as well. His line should get juicier.

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 04:16 PM
^^did you watch the Stout/Etim fight? How did it go? Did Etim outstrike him??

http://gabe.mysbrforum.com/photos/l/kmyY14yG.jpg

poopoo333
01-03-2012, 04:41 PM
hmm so after some video watching and stuff, I give the edge to Barboza...but not going to bet it, I won't be surprised if it's another real close fight.

edman5555
01-03-2012, 04:43 PM
no i didnt watch it

mike
01-04-2012, 01:36 AM
hmm so after some video watching and stuff, I give the edge to Barboza...but not going to bet it, I won't be surprised if it's another real close fight.

i think they're both outside strikers with Barboza being a better one. Even if it's a close fight, i think Barboza will still get it.

SPX
01-04-2012, 01:42 AM
I think that it all comes down to whether or not Etim can get the TD . . . I kind of doubt that he can, but I'm not so sure that -250 on Barboza looks appetizing.

mike
01-04-2012, 02:18 AM
I think that it all comes down to whether or not Etim can get the TD . . . I kind of doubt that he can, but I'm not so sure that -250 on Barboza looks appetizing.

yeah that's how i feel too; even though Barboza could have lost his last 2 fights but still, i think Etim is a favorable match up for Barboza.

poopoo333
01-04-2012, 09:36 AM
Thiago Tavares/Sam Stout

..talk to me

edman5555
01-04-2012, 04:06 PM
My first reaction is Tavares but I haven't seen a ton of tape on Stout versus a solid wrestler/grappler. I read the play by plays for Stout/Wiman and Wiman was able to get Stout down a few times, he was reversed though. It was a close fight though. I guess I see Tavares getting in Stouts face and outworking him up against the cage. That is what he did to Spencer Fischer.

Vandelay
01-08-2012, 10:24 PM
<iframe src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/34626967?title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0" width="400" height="225" frameborder="0" webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="http://vimeo.com/34626967">The Rise of Toquinho</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/stuartcooper">stuart cooper Films</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com">Vimeo</a>.</p>

Vandelay
01-08-2012, 10:30 PM
http://vimeo.com/34626967

Figured out how to embed it. Cool vid on tree stump.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 09:11 AM
Magic prop parlay ideas?

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 10:07 AM
Magic prop parlay ideas?

It doesn't look good to me... maybe "not Aldo/Mendes, AJ, Funch, Stout, Barboza" I really only like the Not AJ and Not Stout though out of the group. Funch is a brown belt in BJJ and they are both going to want to go to the floor, I expect a pretzel match where anything can happen. Mendes is going to want to go to the floor with Aldo, we could see either man get the submission. Etim has been subbed before, and I think he will want to bring it down. I would have to get at least -200 to do that one.

I may do Not Stout by sub to kick off the 2012 parlay, Tavares has never been subbed and Stout will want to stay standing. Even if it goes to floor, Stout has only 1 win by submission. May also add not AJ in the 2012 parlay. Vitor has been subbed once and AJ has never won by submission.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 10:11 AM
Yeah, as for one parlay for the card there is not enough that are "locks" imo, maybe something for a smaller play. Not Mendes, AJ, Stout, Barboza, Funch, Massenzio by sub looks good to me, but not for a 5u bet or anything.

Thewisemann
01-09-2012, 10:14 AM
Were do you guys think the line will go on Mendes?

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 10:17 AM
I would bet it for 5u if the odds were decent. It will probably hit. I didn't realize Massenzio Palhares was on this card. Massenzio is not going to submit Palhares.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 10:17 AM
Were do you guys think the line will go on Mendes?

It will probably stay around the same, maybe some money might come in on him. I don't see him getting better than +225 if he even gets up there

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 10:18 AM
Were do you guys think the line will go on Mendes?

I think it will stay put, maybe go a little lower. It isn't going back to +240.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 10:22 AM
My only bet for this card so far is 0.5u on Mendes @+200. Well I have 0u to win 2.5u on Vitor Belfort (I got a free play on Bookmaker) so that works out. I had a dream AJ beat Belfort in the 2nd though last night.

I plan on a small bet on Massenzio if he gets +400 or more, and a small bet on Etim if he gets better than +250.

Yuri Alcanatra may be a decent dog bet if Omigawa opens over valued (again).

I like Pyle but he will be -325 or worse imo, I might parlay him with Erick Silva.

Thewisemann
01-09-2012, 10:24 AM
Palhares is not gonna lose

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 10:31 AM
I think Belfort is going to smash AJ. I am going to bet that. I will bet Mendes. I may do Palhares/Silva parlay. I am a little worried about Prater, because sometimes he fights really well, and other times he sucks. I may hedge with it Prater by sub. Silva hasn't been subbed yet though, so I dunno.

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 10:33 AM
I considered Pyle, but Funch might suprise him on the mat. Maybe Pyle will force a standup fight and he will probably be the better grappler on the mat too, but I don't know. I just don't trust Pyle's grappling for some reason.

SPX
01-09-2012, 12:54 PM
I had a dream AJ beat Belfort in the 2nd though last night.


Guess I better hedge my Belfort bet. . .

BIGDAY
01-09-2012, 01:49 PM
Don't really love UFC142 for value. I do like Mendes at current +200 odds, but will wait and hope more money comes in on Aldo. Would love to get +250. Probably just a 1 Unit play.

trotterz
01-09-2012, 02:27 PM
I will be on Pyle for sure. I think he is better everywhere. I am just not sure if I can trust his chin, even if Funch doesn't has a lot of power in his hands.
I think we are going to see Pyle vs. Almeida kind of matcup... with funch beeing less good than Almeida in pretty much every area of the game

SPX
01-09-2012, 03:01 PM
Don't really love UFC142 for value.

I think Vitor, Mendes and probably even Palhares have value.

Maybe Barboza too, but we'll have to wait and see on that.

SPX
01-09-2012, 03:02 PM
I will be on Pyle for sure. I think he is better everywhere. I am just not sure if I can trust his chin, even if Funch doesn't has a lot of power in his hands.


When was the last time Pyle was really knocked out? Against Rory and Ellenberger he got put in a position from which he couldn't escape and pounded out . . . I don't really think that has anything to do with his chin.

I doubt Funch will be able to replicate either guy's success.

Ludo
01-09-2012, 03:36 PM
I think Vitor, Mendes and probably even Palhares have value.

Maybe Barboza too, but we'll have to wait and see on that.

Personally I'm staying away from Barboza until I see whether the Pearson fight was just an off night for him or what. Because Pearson spent quite a bit of time inside pressuring the shit out of Edson, who wasn't landing leg kicks like he usually does.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 03:44 PM
I'm not positive about anything on this card. There aren't any fights I feel strongly about, the only one I am actually confident in is Pyle beating Funch.

SPX
01-09-2012, 03:46 PM
Pyle is gonna push Funch's shit in.

poopoo333
01-09-2012, 03:49 PM
I am actually annoyed I used my free play on Vitor Belfort, I think he is probably going to lose. AJ is looking like a beast lately. We'll see.

Palhares is going to win, but I think Massenzio @+400 is justified because he is fighting somebody with the mental capacity of a 12 year old.

Erick Silva is supposed to be a hot prospect but he has conditioning issues, so Prater may be able to take over late in the fight.

This card is just so hard to call

SPX
01-09-2012, 03:53 PM
I'm also a little nervous about Vitor, but I have faith that he'll smash that fool.

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 03:57 PM
I'm not positive about anything on this card. There aren't any fights I feel strongly about, the only one I am actually confident in is Pyle beating Funch.

You think Massenzio might beat Palhares?

AC88
01-09-2012, 05:23 PM
What makes everyone think Vitor > AJ? I think AJ takes it from having way more tools. I will bet that for sure.

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 05:27 PM
What makes everyone think Vitor > AJ? I think AJ takes it from having way more tools. I will bet that for sure.

What are the tools?

I think Vitor has better striking and better grappling. Cardio probably goes to AJ... But he is also going up to MW for the first time and Vitor is a big MW. I just think Vitor is a better fighter. AJ's best win is.... Hardy? Brenneman probably. I just get over him getting beaten up by Rich Clementi, I don't care how long ago it was. As long as AJ doesn't train with Segal, I think he will send AJ back to WW.

AC88
01-09-2012, 05:32 PM
AJ uses way more kicks and has the wrestling base to take Vitor down and hold him down.

AC88
01-09-2012, 05:35 PM
I would say AJ has better striking than Vitor. I just wish it wasn't in Brazil because I know the crowd and energy has a psychological effec.t

SPX
01-09-2012, 05:42 PM
As long as AJ doesn't train with Segal, I think he will send AJ back to WW.

BOL!

Ludo
01-09-2012, 05:43 PM
This card is just so hard to call

Most people are calling it UFC 142.

edman5555
01-09-2012, 07:25 PM
I am still on the fence about Tavares/Stout. I think I will be able to get Tavares as a dog so that will most likely equal a bet for me. I just killed myself on the Jardine fight. -2u out of my 10u bankroll for 2012. The Mayans were right.

Massenzio-Palhares. Palhares will probably muscle him around, Krystoff did and he isn't half the grappler Paulharris is. Regardless, Massenzio does technically have the grappling to win this one. Pauls line is kinda steep.
AJ Vitor is a tough one. What is Vitors takedown defense like? He should def have AJ in the standup department.BTW scientist, the clementi loss was in 2007. I worry Aj has the wrestling to take Vitor down. I think Vitor is the better standup fighter but AJ's power can't be denied.

mike
01-09-2012, 07:41 PM
i think AJ at WW is like Jones at LHW. He beat ppl up with just his physical advantage. He has long reach and just tower over ppl. I dont think he's a good striker technique wise. Belfort is just about the same size, maybe a bit smaller. They both have power to KO the other if they land, with Vitor having faster hands and Johnson having better kicks. I'll go with Vitor though. He's the more proven striker. That said, i hate betting against explosive guys with KO power like Johnson. 1 punch or kick is all he needs to end the fight.

edman5555
01-09-2012, 07:48 PM
What are the tools?

I think Vitor has better striking and better grappling. Cardio probably goes to AJ... But he is also going up to MW for the first time and Vitor is a big MW. I just think Vitor is a better fighter. AJ's best win is.... Hardy? Brenneman probably. I just get over him getting beaten up by Rich Clementi, I don't care how long ago it was. As long as AJ doesn't train with Segal, I think he will send AJ back to WW.

Do you think Vitor can consistently stop the takedown?

Thewisemann
01-09-2012, 08:40 PM
AJ is gonna get fucked up if he can't take Vitor down. Palhares is gonna sub Massenzio in the first two min. Mendes is gonna hump Aldo for 25 min, that's gonna Prolly suck to watch. I do like Tavares over Stout at even or better.

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 08:54 PM
-2u out of my 10u bankroll for 2012

hold the phone... you have a 10% unit? Why? You made 180% last year, that is 3 years to a $1,000,000...

MMA_scientist
01-09-2012, 08:58 PM
Do you think Vitor can consistently stop the takedown?

Yeah, or get up. Vitor is pretty damn difficult to get a hold of and really hard to hold down, even for LHWs. Even prime Tito couldn't hold him down very well. Belfort is good. The only problem is that he folds if things aren't going his way. Since he has been a MW, all of his fights have gone really quickly so we haven't really seen him in deep waters in several years. He might be like BJ.

AC88
01-09-2012, 09:27 PM
AJ is gonna get fucked up if he can't take Vitor down. Palhares is gonna sub Massenzio in the first two min. Mendes is gonna hump Aldo for 25 min, that's gonna Prolly suck to watch. I do like Tavares over Stout at even or better.

How much are you going to put down on Mendes?

Luke
01-09-2012, 09:32 PM
-2u out of my 10u bankroll for 2012. The Mayans were right.

.

You went from a 2% unit to 10% ?

Sorry bout Jardine

Luke
01-09-2012, 09:32 PM
Rumble isnt beating Vitor

edman5555
01-09-2012, 09:33 PM
hold the phone... you have a 10% unit? Why? You made 180% last year, that is 3 years to a $1,000,000...

My units are 100 bucks now. My 5dimes account is low, i lost 2u betting jardine and I have about 8u left. I blew my bookmaker account. I went way downhill at the end of the year. I sort of lost motivation. I am looking to make a comeback though.

edman5555
01-09-2012, 09:35 PM
AJ is gonna get fucked up if he can't take Vitor down. Palhares is gonna sub Massenzio in the first two min. Mendes is gonna hump Aldo for 25 min, that's gonna Prolly suck to watch. I do like Tavares over Stout at even or better.

I am going to have to watch some tape on massenzio. I am worried Mendes can successfully hump Aldo for 25 minutes. I think Tavares can beat stout. It reminds me a lot of the match up between tavares and fischer. The only problem is Stout is a little younger than Fischer. I don't know if he is more skilled. I think they are really similar. I think Tavares will come out or end up at udog odds.

sbjj
01-09-2012, 10:23 PM
I like both AJ and Mendes. I think alot of people are overdoing it on Vitor. The whole 185 class is not as good as the welters IMO. And I actually think AJ will be a better fighter @ 185 than he was @ 170.

mike
01-09-2012, 11:54 PM
anyone has any thoughts on the Gonzaga fight ? Cant fight many vids on Gonzaga's opponents, only a few early fights from years ago which cant really tell how good he is right now.

SPX
01-09-2012, 11:59 PM
Who's Gonzaga fighting again? Oh yeah, some dude no one's ever heard of.

Ludo
01-10-2012, 01:20 AM
I'm not betting Vitor straight because like Scientist said we don't know if he's still mentally weak. If he doesn't blow Patrice out of the water early there's no telling if he will keep trying/caring after the first round, especially if he gets taken down a time or two in the process.

I don't know what to think about Aldo/Mendes. Something tells Me Mendes might just be another UFC hype job in this fight where the illusion that Mendes actually has a chance and won't be killed inside of a round has been fabricated for ratings. But I don't like the idea of laying a straight bet on Aldo in a fight where he just got done giving up a round under Mark Hominick.

All that said, I parlayed them to win a unit.

Svino
01-10-2012, 02:16 AM
I think if AJ comes to box, Vitor will knock him out.

Unfortunately, I don't have that much confidence in Vitor's takedown defense and he isn't that great off his back. On the other hand, AJ isn't as accomplished a wrestler as the guys (Couture, Ortiz, Hendo) who gave Vitor problems.

Thewisemann
01-10-2012, 06:37 AM
If AJ came to wrestle vs Hardy, for sure he isn't trying to stand vs Belfort. And I have .5u on Mendes and may throw another .5-1u down depending on odds. I think he can just wrestlefuck him the whole time. But other than wrestling I do think Mendes kinda sucks so I'm not goin to big. May put domething down by dec if the line improves I'm just worried Aldo will tire and get stopped.

BIGDAY
01-10-2012, 11:12 AM
Vitor's odds keep improving. I wonder how far they fall?

High5
01-10-2012, 11:52 AM
Vitor's odds keep improving. I wonder how far they fall?

Not sure but it seems like that Fighter Diary: Anthony Johnson youtube video release instigated the movement.

Dr_Ngo
01-10-2012, 11:59 AM
I put 2U on Mendes.

Aldo's weight cut is getting worse & worse. Look at this video

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xlgj0m_jose-aldo-weight-cut-battle_sport

I think Mendes will be able to wrestle fuck him and Aldo will gas out.

I'm also thinking about dropping some $ on Belfort.

Vandelay
01-10-2012, 12:07 PM
I put 2U on Mendes.

Aldo's weight cut is getting worse & worse. Look at this video

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xlgj0m_jose-aldo-weight-cut-battle_sport

I think Mendes will be able to wrestle fuck him and Aldo will gas out.

I'm also thinking about dropping some $ on Belfort.

that was prior to hominck fight and probably the reason he looked lke shit in rd5

poopoo333
01-10-2012, 12:39 PM
Not sure but it seems like that Fighter Diary: Anthony Johnson youtube video release instigated the movement.

Yeah I agree...that even made me think AJ was going to win

AC88
01-10-2012, 03:55 PM
My heart keeps telling me to put money on Mendes and Rumble for this card. I don't think I can prevent myself from doing so.

edman5555
01-10-2012, 05:08 PM
http://www.mmafighting.com/2012/01/10/gray-maynard-gives-high-praise-to-jose-aldo/

Gray Maynard says he does not think Mendes is ready for Jose Aldo.

edman5555
01-10-2012, 05:10 PM
http://www.mmamania.com/2012/1/10/2696593/ufc-142-vitor-belfort-vs-anthony-johnson-rio-fight-video-preview#storyjump

AJ looks like a beast.

SPX
01-10-2012, 05:29 PM
AJ looks like a beast.

I could kick his ass.

edman5555
01-10-2012, 07:03 PM
I could kick his ass.

Good Luck with that. I feel like you are at a slight disadvantage.

Luke
01-10-2012, 08:56 PM
Good Luck with that. I feel like you are at a slight disadvantage.

About 1 foot and 80 pounds

Luke
01-10-2012, 08:59 PM
http://www.mmamania.com/2012/1/10/2696593/ufc-142-vitor-belfort-vs-anthony-johnson-rio-fight-video-preview#storyjump

AJ looks like a beast.

Size doesn't equal skill. He's still a second tier fighter fighting a top 5 fighter.

And I dont think Mendes will be able to get Aldo down. Aldo's TD defense is pretty good.

edman5555
01-10-2012, 09:49 PM
Yeah gray Maynard's endorsement is pretty good but that that I think about it he can't pick against also ....he is training with him. That would be considered rude. I haven't seem much of mended but I wonder if he has diverse enough a skillset to beat Aldo.

poopoo333
01-10-2012, 09:50 PM
Yeah Aldo has some great T3D...I don't take the takedown from Hominick into account in the 5th because Aldo was in cardiac arrest at the moment. Mendes is the best wrestler Aldo has faced imo, so it'll be interested. I am not too confident in Mendes though

edman5555
01-10-2012, 09:51 PM
Well an does have some skill..wrestling. His wrestling may be enough to stop sub attempts from vigor. How good is vigor off his back anyway. Standing it's vitor all day but aj can conceivably put him on his back for three rounds or long enough to GNP him.

edman5555
01-10-2012, 09:52 PM
I am hoping to pick aldo up at -200

Luke
01-10-2012, 09:53 PM
I am hoping to pick aldo up at -200

So am I

edman5555
01-10-2012, 09:54 PM
Doubt it will happen though

poopoo333
01-10-2012, 10:09 PM
One thing about Belfort/AJ that might be an issue for AJ: AJ is used to fighting @ 170 against people who are WAY smaller than him (Yoshida, Brenneman, Hardy, Koscheck, etc). Hardy and Koscheck still are around 190-200 lbs out of camp (I think Koscheck, Hardy for sure), but there frames are completely different than AJ's. AJ has never fought at middleweight before against somebody that could match his size, and Belfort is known for being a very big MW as well. AJ won't be able to just tower over Belfort in this one.

sbjj
01-10-2012, 11:17 PM
AJ is like Shields. He will still be big @ 185. Vitors line will get even better after the weigh ins when AJ will look bigger than Vitor. I really think AJ is going to surprise alot of you guys in here. His takedowns and kicks will give Vitor trouble IMO.

Aldo will gas if this goes past 2 and a half rounds. He was able to dictate the pace with Hom. and Florian more than I believe he will be able to against Mendes. Mendes will keep an unbelievable amount of pressure on him. Unless Mendes gets caught in the first 2 rounds I actually think it is his fight to lose.

poopoo333
01-10-2012, 11:50 PM
Aldo will gas if this goes past 2 and a half rounds. He was able to dictate the pace with Hom. and Florian more than I believe he will be able to against Mendes. Mendes will keep an unbelievable amount of pressure on him. Unless Mendes gets caught in the first 2 rounds I actually think it is his fight to lose.

Agreed...it really depends on if Mendes decides to bring the pressure. If he hangs back and is tentative he will lose.

edman5555
01-11-2012, 12:13 AM
There were rumors of Aldo being sick, could be bullshit though.

edman5555
01-11-2012, 12:14 AM
AJ is like Shields. He will still be big @ 185. Vitors line will get even better after the weigh ins when AJ will look bigger than Vitor. I really think AJ is going to surprise alot of you guys in here. His takedowns and kicks will give Vitor trouble IMO.

Aldo will gas if this goes past 2 and a half rounds. He was able to dictate the pace with Hom. and Florian more than I believe he will be able to against Mendes. Mendes will keep an unbelievable amount of pressure on him. Unless Mendes gets caught in the first 2 rounds I actually think it is his fight to lose.


I see your points. He could def get caught though. I see Mendez line getting better.

poopoo333
01-11-2012, 08:29 AM
Interesting early week in Brazil. With fights taking place so late (1 a.m. local start for main card) guys are trying to adjust schedules.

when asked if fighters had to do this for ufc 134:



No. Change in PPV start time plus Brazilian summer time means 3-hour change.

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 12:10 PM
we gonna get the rest of the lines today or tomorrow?

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 12:33 PM
Bookmaker just released them.

SPX
01-11-2012, 12:46 PM
Pyle at -365. . . Hmm. . .

trotterz
01-11-2012, 12:46 PM
Yeah, and I wish I had bookmaker instead of 5dimes. Some of the lines are really interesting

SPX
01-11-2012, 12:48 PM
Shit, Pyle already at -400. Was hoping that line would go the other way.

trotterz
01-11-2012, 01:00 PM
Shit, Pyle already at -400. Was hoping that line would go the other way.

Same here. As I said, I think Pyle should win, but -400 if too expensive for it

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 01:44 PM
Edinaldo Oliveira is a training partner of JDS. Supposed to be a good boxer with a good bjj gm. Tdd is questionable, along with his level of opposition. Limited footage on him. Only recent video I found on him is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4w11k5ckwA at the 3 min mark.

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 01:51 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gu_To6auGg&feature=related

here's the whole fight. Likes to leave his chin exposed.

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 01:58 PM
Here's Gonzaga's last fight's play by play.

Gabriel Gonzaga 11-6 vs Parker Porter 5-2 Heavyweight Title Fight

Napão enters the ring looking in good shape. Porter looks just as ready. I can already tell this is going to be a great fight.

Round 1:

The two start pawing for distant Gonzaga moves in landing a few quick jabs. Porter fires back landing a good straight. The crowed is behind the champ. As he fires a great body head combo. Napão is content to work his jab. He lands a quick stright and fires a leg kick that could be heard through the areana. Napão stops the action with a shot below the belt.

The two reset. Napão lands another solid leg kick . He is being very caution and calculated in his moves. Parker is working his jab. Napão fires a leg kick Parker rushes in with a quick combo knocking Napão off balance for a moment but he recovers. Napão continues to work his leg keg kicks. Parker pawing for range and fires a solid straight Napão answers back with a hard leg kick . It seems Napão is trying to chop down Porter with the leg kicks, maybe to set up the takedown in the later rounds They continue to fire combos not doing much damage as the round ends.

Round 2:

Parker being aggressive in round 2 tring to land some jabs and gets a solid leg kick in. So far he is showing the most forward movement. looks like he is waiting for his moment. Lands another solid leg kick Parker fires back with a combo, nap covers over and back peddles. Napão goes for a head kick. blocked. and shoots for his first takedown which Porter stuffs easily. The two dance again. Napão lands a couplpe good jab.s Parker catches him with a good right but Napão quickly recovers. Napão is sharting to show some redness in the side of his head. Parker landned a hard rigth that could bea heard everywhere. Napão is moving away. Parker landed another good headshot. Napão covering up still dancing around the ring. Parker fires a couple good front kicks to Napão’s head, blocked. Parker seems to be scoring themost this round. With a minute left Napão is not showing much foward movement. He lands a decent one two combo. He is trying to land a hard right leaving him open for parkers counter combo sending Napão back but he recovers.

With ten seconds left Napão puts some distance between him and Parkers combos. The round ends.

Round 3:



Porter is pawing tring to find his range. Napão goes for a head kick. Blocked. Parker lands a solid right that stuns Napão for a second. He fires a greeat combo that catches Parker. Napão rushes in to follow up landing some heavy punches and floors Parker! Parker grabs onto Napão and works his way to his feet. They clinch now, as Parker is trying to clear the cobwebbs.Napão trips Parker to the mat and is firing off bombs to Parker’s head. Napão works and gets the mount and continues the ground and pound with Parker pinned against the cage. Parker trying to escape to his feet and is scrambling. Gonzaga keeps him down utilizing the BJJ he is famous for and with great body control!! Parker has nowhere to go!! Parker is turtling with Napão in back side control unleashing bombs to his head. He takes Porter back looking for the rear naked choke , still raining down punches to the side of Parker’s head to soften him up. Parker scrambles desperately looking to shake Napão off and Napão easily moves to mount and transitions into an arm triangle!! Parker taps immediately!!!

Winner: Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga by Arm Triangle

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 02:03 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0HhJSU68fM

I'm starting to buy into this guy.

MMA_scientist
01-11-2012, 02:17 PM
submission props are out too. I can't piece anything together. I am having a hard time finding anything bet-worthy here, except Mendes. I will probably also bet Vitor, but you guys are scaring me off him. It would not so mucg be a bet on Vitor as a bet against AJ, because I think he is overrated. I bet against him all the time, I remember he was favored over Koscheck, and I still think that is absolutely ridiculous.

trotterz
01-11-2012, 03:26 PM
odds are out on 5dimes also

edman5555
01-11-2012, 09:03 PM
Tavares line is getting out of control damnit. I was hoping to get him at like plus one fifty. Now he negative one thirty

Luke
01-11-2012, 09:07 PM
Johnson is now the favorite at some places. . . . . . . . .the world has gone mad.

Thewisemann
01-11-2012, 09:44 PM
Scientist, don't let them scare you, AJ got beat by Rich Clementi

poopoo333
01-11-2012, 09:44 PM
1/14/2012 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Erick Silva* -525 vs Carlo Prater
1/14/2012 8:30 PM UFC Fighting 1802 Mike Pyle* -465 vs Ricardo Funch
1/14/2012 11:30 PM Props Fighting 1128 Any other result* -5040 vs Johnson wins by submission
1/14/2012 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1228 Any other result* -3250 vs Massenzio wins by submission
1/14/2012 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1432 Any other result* -2875 vs Barboza wins by submission


What do you guys think? Pays out like -178ish

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 10:24 PM
I'd rather put not belfort by sub. The guy never subs people, while johnson should be in better positions to go for subs

mike
01-11-2012, 10:40 PM
Vandelay, that Lula guy does not look too impressive in the vids you posted. He's wide open for counters.

Vandelay
01-11-2012, 10:53 PM
Defense isn't something he prioritizes im sure. He's aggressive though and throws a lot of punches. This, combined with Gonzaga's mediocre to subpar boxing ability and unwillingness to pull the trigger leads me to think Lula will take it. There's always the chance that Gonzaga knocks the dude out cold, but Gonzaga just isn't that good. He won't be taking lula down multiple times imo, he probably isn't training as hard, and he generally has bad gameplans.

mike
01-11-2012, 11:23 PM
yeah this guy can def win this fight with his pace alone if he can keep a good distance. Gonzawa has massive power though so he only need to land one punch on this guy.

edman5555
01-11-2012, 11:54 PM
Aj can probably take vitor down...he is a Massive judo champion...

MMA_scientist
01-12-2012, 09:22 AM
I'd rather put not belfort by sub. The guy never subs people, while johnson should be in better positions to go for subs

But Belfort definitely has better sub defense. I don't think either one is worth the risk to your play there poopoo. It is not adding that much value.

MMA_scientist
01-12-2012, 09:23 AM
Scientist, don't let them scare you, AJ got beat by Rich Clementi

Truth.

Vandelay
01-12-2012, 12:11 PM
But Belfort definitely has better sub defense. I don't think either one is worth the risk to your play there poopoo. It is not adding that much value.

Yea good point. I agree, I don't see a sub happening in that fight

trotterz
01-12-2012, 12:22 PM
By looking at the current odds and props, I noticed something which doesn't make sens

Johnson line is -110 right now ...If I bet 100$ and he wins, I get 90.91

By looking at the props,
Johnson by 3 round dec is at +266
Johnson Inside the distance is at +220

So in fact, if someone wants to play on Johnson, he get more money by playing 50$ on johnson by Dec (@ +266 to win 133) and 50$ on johnson ITD (@ +220 to win 110) instead of playing only johnson to win line

By playing on both props(50/50), you get odds of minimum +110 if johnson wins ITD and +133 if he wins by Decision.

I just noticed that for johnson, but I am defenetely going to look further on that matter when I will want to play single bets as of now.

As I already said in previous posts, I am french, not english, so if you have some dificulty to understand my explanations in my post, let me know and I will try to give better explainations.

SPX
01-12-2012, 12:27 PM
Scientist, don't let them scare you, AJ got beat by Rich Clementi

Anderson Silva got beat by Ryo Chonan.

edman5555
01-12-2012, 12:44 PM
Do you live in France Trotterz? Canada? I think you answered this already and stated you live in Canada.

trotterz
01-12-2012, 12:51 PM
Do you live in France Trotterz? Canada? I think you answered this already and stated you live in Canada.

I live in Canada Quebec, so our english abilities over here are pretty similar to GSP

Did you understand my point in my post edman? I think that the breakdown is really interesting

MMA_scientist
01-12-2012, 01:39 PM
I live in Canada Quebec, so our english abilities over here are pretty similar to GSP

Did you understand my point in my post edman? I think that the breakdown is really interesting

The flaw is that in order to win one, you would lose the other. So you would put $50 on both, so even though you would win $133 @ +266, you have to subtract out the $50 you will necessarily lose on your other bet, leaving you with a total take of only $83. You would be better off betting @ -110 and winning $90

And if you had the misfortune of winning a $50 bet @ +220, you would "win" $110, and then lose your other $50 bet, to take only $60.

So the average of the two lines is really $100 to win $71.50, a line of -140

Vandelay
01-12-2012, 01:53 PM
Alright, i'm sold on AJ.

Luke
01-12-2012, 05:16 PM
The flaw is that in order to win one, you would lose the other. So you would put $50 on both, so even though you would win $133 @ +266, you have to subtract out the $50 you will necessarily lose on your other bet, leaving you with a total take of only $83. You would be better off betting @ -110 and winning $90

And if you had the misfortune of winning a $50 bet @ +220, you would "win" $110, and then lose your other $50 bet, to take only $60.

So the average of the two lines is really $100 to win $71.50, a line of -140


Correct.

You also win nothing when Belfort TKO's Johnson

Luke
01-12-2012, 05:26 PM
By looking at the current odds and props, I noticed something which doesn't make sens

Johnson line is -110 right now ...If I bet 100$ and he wins, I get 90.91

By looking at the props,
Johnson by 3 round dec is at +266
Johnson Inside the distance is at +220

So in fact, if someone wants to play on Johnson, he get more money by playing 50$ on johnson by Dec (@ +266 to win 133) and 50$ on johnson ITD (@ +220 to win 110) instead of playing only johnson to win line

By playing on both props(50/50), you get odds of minimum +110 if johnson wins ITD and +133 if he wins by Decision.

I just noticed that for johnson, but I am defenetely going to look further on that matter when I will want to play single bets as of now.

As I already said in previous posts, I am french, not english, so if you have some dificulty to understand my explanations in my post, let me know and I will try to give better explainations.


Even though the odds arent quite right I have done this before . It worked out quite well in the Khan-Judah fight. Khan was close to -130 to win inside the distance but I was able to bet :

1 to win 2.42 +242 Khan wins in rd 1-6
.75 to win 2.6 +347 Khan wins in rd 7-12

To actually give me plus odds on this outcome happening .You just need to keep an eye out for good odds.::handshake::

Thewisemann
01-12-2012, 08:38 PM
Anyone see value in Omigawa +170? What about Gonzaga -125?

mike
01-12-2012, 08:52 PM
I like Gonzaga bc the other guy carries his hands pretty low and hasnt fought anyone good. But he's very active so he might overwhelm Gonzaga, Diaz style. I put 3u on Gonzaga though and 6u on Alcantara. WTH, I am going big on the first event in 2012. If I lose these bets, I basically lose all my 2011 winnings LOL. Oh well.. I'm probably gonna put 2u on Vitor also. I got greedy..

Ludo
01-12-2012, 08:55 PM
Anyone see value in Omigawa +170? What about Gonzaga -125?

My concern with Omigawa is Alcantara is a total striking beast if I remember right. He might just beat the shit out of Omigawa standing and create enough distance with the thip to avoid takedown attempts.

Luke
01-12-2012, 08:57 PM
Gonzaga should easily handle Oliveria but I made a rule a long time ago to never bet on Gonzaga...............Vera and Jardine are also on this list.

edman5555
01-12-2012, 10:30 PM
I don't know much about Gonzales opponent...btw I am a good gambler turned stupid drunk.. But -125 doesn't sound bad for a mundials champ with ko power.


Also wise am I was thinking the same thing about omigawa but lido might have a point.

MMA_scientist
01-13-2012, 09:09 AM
Gonzaga is not a Mundials champ.

BIGDAY
01-13-2012, 09:37 AM
Have a parlay that I put in a while ago that has a decent chance at hitting. Aldo by TKO/KO +315 & Rumble by TKO/KO +325 to pay around +1650.

Just a .25 of a unit but I thought it would be worth the odds. I probably will put a unit on Mendes as well. Not going to be a big card for me at all.

GL

poopoo333
01-13-2012, 11:35 AM
I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

MMA_scientist
01-13-2012, 11:57 AM
I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

I went ahead and dropped a bet on Palhares/Pyle/Silva and hedged with Prater by sub. I am actually more worried about Pyle than Palhares. Palhares is better than Massenzio in every aspect IMO. Plus it is in Palhares's backyard. I mean, how is Massenzio going to beat him? Maaybe by a top control decision... but I doubt that and it is definitely less that 20% IMO.

BIGDAY
01-13-2012, 12:01 PM
Palhares by dec is a decent prop wager imo at +300 or better.

poopoo333
01-13-2012, 12:07 PM
I went ahead and dropped a bet on Palhares/Pyle/Silva and hedged with Prater by sub. I am actually more worried about Pyle than Palhares. Palhares is better than Massenzio in every aspect IMO. Plus it is in Palhares's backyard. I mean, how is Massenzio going to beat him? Maaybe by a top control decision... but I doubt that and it is definitely less that 20% IMO.

Yeah, it's just in the back of my mind that Palhares may gas and Massenzio will be able to blast him on the feet, he was connecting soo easily against Cantwell with his combos. I am worried about Pyle the most too, I hedged with Funch SOTN. But before the MacDonald fight Pyle was doing well/was reinventing himself. It depends on how he bounces back. But I think Pyle is just a level above Funch.

I am not too confident in tomorrow night. In fact, there are actually no upcoming cards that I actually love for betting.

SPX
01-13-2012, 12:27 PM
I'm starting to come around on putting Palhares in a parlay. But it's so iffy with that fucker

I actually went ahead and took him straight. Can you really imagine Massenzio beating him?

AC88
01-13-2012, 01:11 PM
Palhares by takedown, top control and sub. If that doesn't happen, Palhares by takedown, top control and GNP to a 30-26. I can't see what Massenzio is going to do to Palhares to put him in any danger unless it's on the feet.

MMA_scientist
01-13-2012, 01:19 PM
Palhares' striking is not that bad. Massenzio gasses worse than Palhares FWIW. Massenzio let himself be submitted by Brian F'n Stann.

Thewisemann
01-13-2012, 01:29 PM
Palhares by heel hook/ARM bar with the quickness.

edman5555
01-13-2012, 03:39 PM
I will be playing palhares. also thiago tavares. I am thinking about vitor as well.

MMA_scientist
01-13-2012, 03:52 PM
Palhares is going to win. I like Vitor too. I actually flipped on Tavares though and now I think Stout is going to win. What do you like Tavares?

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:14 PM
Rumble misses weight. . . Fucking BOL!!!!!!!!!!!

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:15 PM
Luke said Midnight Johnson weight in at 220 and missed weight.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:18 PM
Just read that Vitor is saying he won't fight unless Rumble at least gets down to 205. BOLZOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:20 PM
Holy shit, I was just fuckin around. hahahaha

Ludo
01-13-2012, 04:21 PM
BOL that motherfucker weighed 197.

mike
01-13-2012, 04:22 PM
WTF?? how much did he weigh in at? it is a hell lot harder to lose muscle weight than water weight. well i put enough to win 1u on Vitor.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:22 PM
I've heard that no numbers have been released yet, but Vitor has said he isn't fighting if Rumble can't get to 205 by fight time. I was wondering where you got that 220 from since I can't find numbers anywhere. Apparently he is over 205, though.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:24 PM
Apparently the situation is that Rumble won't weigh in because he's so far over.

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:24 PM
What a fuckin disaster. I was leaning towards Vitor, but Im not fucking with this fight now.

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:26 PM
Apparently the situation is that Rumble won't weigh in because he's so far over.

There is the unprofessional shit that guys like Alves pulls, but this is on a whole other level right there.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:26 PM
Luke just said he heard Rumble weighed 197. So I dunno.

I have like 2.5u on Vitor. If Rumble's big ass comes in and gets a KO Yoshida-style I'm gonna be pissed.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:27 PM
There is the unprofessional shit that guys like Alves pulls, but this is on a whole other level right there.

Something tells me Rumble might get the Marquardt treatment.

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:28 PM
Luke just said he heard Rumble weighed 197. So I dunno.

I have like 2.5u on Vitor. If Rumble's big ass comes in and gets a KO Yoshida-style I'm gonna be pissed.

That will be some bullshit.

I might just throw something on Paul Harris now.

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:28 PM
Something tells me Rumble might get the Marquardt treatment.

+1

Ludo
01-13-2012, 04:29 PM
I've heard that no numbers have been released yet, but Vitor has said he isn't fighting if Rumble can't get to 205 by fight time. I was wondering where you got that 220 from since I can't find numbers anywhere. Apparently he is over 205, though.


I was watching the weigh ins on MMAJunkie when I posted 197. Thats the number they called out when he stepped on the scale and Vitor said he would fight Rumble so long as he wasn't ABOVE 205 by tomorrow.

So he has to weigh in tomorrow around 2pm in the afternoon and if he's over 205 I guess the fight is off.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:31 PM
Ah, okay. Hmm. So is Rumble supposed to re-weigh in at some point tomorrow or what?

I read that if the fight goes down Vitor gets 20% of Rumble's purse. I guess AJ will just never learn.

Ludo
01-13-2012, 04:31 PM
This is some funny shit, though. Dude moves up to 185 to avoid complications with weight cutting and ends up 11lbs over the limit in a division that allows him to come in 15lbs heavier than normal anyway.

Ludo
01-13-2012, 04:32 PM
Yeah they are doing another weigh-in tomorrow in the afternoon to make sure Rumble is under 205lbs. Essentially this is now a Light Heavyweight fight.

SPX
01-13-2012, 04:40 PM
Fuck you, Rumble!

Ludo
01-13-2012, 04:50 PM
How does this kind of thing even happen, though? What the fuck were they doing in training camp if he wasn't even close to making weight? I mean, if he's 197 today what was he a week ago?

Mr. IWS
01-13-2012, 04:54 PM
How does this kind of thing even happen, though? What the fuck were they doing in training camp if he wasn't even close to making weight? I mean, if he's 197 today what was he a week ago?

http://www.fightlinker.com/pics/anthonyjohnsonbig.jpg