11-4-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DR. BOB WRITEUP

#21 USC (-21.5) 39 COLORADO 23
Over/Under Total: 56.5
06:00 PM Pacific Time, Friday, 04-Nov-2011
Colorado has been besieged by injuries the past month and the lack of quality players coincided with the Buffaloes facing 4 very good teams (Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Arizona State) with great offenses. The results have not been pretty, as the Buffs lost those 4 games by an average score of 12-48. However, while the defense still has injury issues, the offense gets has their 2 best playmakers back this week. Quarterback Tyler Hansen has had a good season (6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and just 6 interceptions on 282 pass attempts) and Hansen appears healthy after coming off the bench last week against Arizona State (he missed half of the Oregon game). More important than having Hansen healthy is the return of big play WR Paul Richardson and multi-talented RB Rodney Stewart, who are both expected to play this week after missing time recently. Richardson missed the last 4 games after averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per pass thrown to him (474 yards on 53 targets) the first 5 games and Hansen also benefits from getting back reliable receiving running back Rodney Stewart, who is not only the top rusher but is the best weapon in the passing game. Stewart has 435 receiving yards on 44 passes thrown to him, which is an incredible 9.9 yards per attempt (running backs normally average around 6 ypa). With Richardson and Stewart both playing Hansen had even better stats and my math model projects a solid 349 total yards at 5.3 yppl in this game for the Buffaloes.

Colorado’s defense is still banged up and I think the last 4 games, in which the Buffs gave up 542 yards at 8.0 yppl and 48.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 6.8 yppl and 43.7 points per game against an average team, is indicative of their current form. With that being the case I project USC at 518 yards at 7.9 yppl and 39 points after upgrading the Trojans’ offense for RB Curtis McNeal being the featured back with Marc Tyler likely sidelined this week (McNeal has averaged 6.5 ypr and Tyler just 4.5 ypr). Colorado’s recent series of blowout losses to great teams has made them a bit underrated, especially with their offensive playmakers back from injury this week. My math model gives the Buffaloes a profitable 55.2% chance of covering and I can certainly see a letdown from USC this week after their heart breaking triple-overtime loss to unbeaten Stanford. USC is not going to a bowl game this season to due NCAA sanctions and they treated last week’s game like their bowl game, so a letdown against the lowly Buffs is certainly reasonable. I like Colorado plus the points in this game.

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

10 Dimes - Kent State -1

comp Colorado plus the points in the first half over USC

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns

sabres 7*
under 58.5 USC 9*