11-6-11

[timbob]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[timbob]

ben burns

10 wash
10 tenn personal fav
10 san diego main event
9 balt
9 ny jets

ALL EARLY* 3-Game ULTIMATE
9* Saints under 51

[timbob]

Dr. Bob

2* Denver
Strong Opinions: Miami, Washington, Seattle

[timbob]

BIG AL'S Picks NFL
3* Saints/Bucs UNDER 51
3* Seahawks +12
3* Washington +4

OPINION PICKS
DOLPHINS +4
COLTS +7
RAVENS +3.5

NHL PICK
3* BLACKHAWKS

[timbob]

BRANDON LANG

100 DIMES - Rams +3
25 DIMES - Giants + 9
25 DIMES - Cincy + 2.5

[timbob]

Big Al

Texans ov41 - really big

[timbob]

Scott Spreitzer

Bills -3 -

[Mr. IWS]

PPP
6% San Francisco
3% Houston
3% NY Jets
2% Baltimore
4% Under Baltimore
3% Under Houston
3% Under San Francisco

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

San Diego Pinnacle
Baltimore No Limit GOM
New England Perfect
Tennessee Fortune 500
Miami Billionaire
Washington Millionaire

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 9 Total (20-8 since 2010)
My 10* NFL Week 9 Total is on the NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET.

Maybe the Jets didn’t need a bye week. Rex Ryan’s team opened the 2011 season 2-0 but then lost their next three games, all on the road at Oakland (34-24), at Baltimore (34-17) and at New England (30-21). However, with their backs to the wall, the Jets beat Miami 24-6 on a Monday Night home game and then made a nice comeback vs the Chargers in Week 7, winning 27-21. Rex Ryan’s mouth is again ‘working’ (likely claiming seven straight titles like the moronic Miami Heat did) but the last thing the Jets probably needed was a week off. On the other side of the ball, the Bills are one of this year’s best stories. Buffalo and Detroit both entered the 2011 season having not made the postseason since 1999 (tied for the longest playoff drought by any NFL teams). However, like the Lions, the Bills are off to an excellent start (Detroit is 6-2 and Buffalo 5-2). QB Ryan Fitzgerald (armed with a new big contract) is completing 67.7%, averaging 248.4 YPG with 14 TDs and seven INTs (97.8 QB rating). RB Fred Jackson has simply developed into one of the NFL’s best all-around backs. He’s got 721 rushing yards (5.5 YPC / six TDs) plus has added 27 catches. The Bills are tied with the Pats at 5-2 for the AFC East lead and after already beating the Pats (34-31 in Week 3), a win here over the 4-3 Jets would be HUGE for Buffalo, halfway through the 2011 season. However, recent history is on New York’s side, as the Jets have won FIVE of the last six meetings between the two teams, including three straight in Buffalo. Let me also note that the Jets haven’t lost their first four road games (are 0-3 to open 2011) since 2007. The Bills have won four straight home games, if one includes last week’s 23-0 win over Washington in Toronto (designated as a Buffalo home game) and haven’t won their first five home games since the 1995 season. The Bills dominated Washington last Sunday (recorded nine sacks and allowed just 178 yards) but the fact remains that the Bills had allowed at least 414 yards in each of their previous five games and rank 26th in the league, allowing an average of 385.9 YPG on the year. I’ve pointed this out before (regulars should have guessed I’d be playing the Jets over on the road with at least ONE of my plays) but the Jets seem to give QB Sanchez much more leeway away from home and that means “the over” is always in play. Sanchez has yet to be accepted by Jets fans or the general media but FOUR postseason road wins in his first two years in the league are quite impressive. Sanchez completed 60.3% with four TDs and two INTs (92.7 QB rating) in three road postseason games in 2009 and completed 60.7% in last year’s postseason (again, three games) with a 5-1 ratio and a QB rating of 95.5. Compare those numbers to his two regular-season marks (completion percentages of 53.8 and 54.8 percent with 29 TDs and 33 INTs along with QB ratings of 63.0 and 75.3) and one has to be impressed with his efforts away from New York. Bottom line is this. Sanchez is less inhibited away from home (especially in the postseason) and just get a look at these numbers. The Jets averaged 25.1 PPG in eight road games last year (includes the team’s 45-3 loss in MNF at New England), while allowing 24.6 PPG. Jets games away from home in last year’s regular season averaged 49.8 PPG, giving the team an 8-0 (100%) “over mark” last year. The Jets are again 3-0 to the over to open the 2011 season, as their three games have averaged 52.0 PPG. I’m posting (and betting) this game early on Friday and the weather forecast for Buffalo is mostly sunny Friday and Saturday (high 40s). For Sunday, it’s partly cloudy Sunday with temperatures expected in the mid-50s. No rain is expected until Tuesday or Wednesday. Just why should this game go under? It SHOULDN’T and I’m playing the over.

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 10* Division GOY (15-8, 65% w/GOY plays since 2010)
My 10* NFC South Game of the Year is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Saints failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity last Sunday in St Louis. The Falcons and Bucs were both idle (each team was 4-3), meaning the 5-2 Saints needed only to best the 0-6 Rams to move to 6-2, which would have increased their division lead to 1 1/2 games. However, the Saints blew their chance at extending their NFC South lead by losing 31-21 to the previously winless Rams. Brees had a sub-par game with a a modest 269 yards passing (one TD and two INTs for a QB rating of 73.). Without Ingram, the New Orleans rushing game was held to 56 yards on 20 carries (2.8 YPC) and the OL allowed Brees to be sacked SIX times. The New Orleans D (often a shaky unit) hardly slowed down backup QB Feely plus RB Steven Jackson shredded the Saints’ rush D, gaining 159 yards and two TDs. The Bucs opened the season with a home loss to the Lions but then won three straight. A 48-3 loss followed at San Francisco in Week 5 but then the Bucs beat these Saints 26-20 in Tampa Bay. Brees threw for 383 yards in that game but was intercepted three times, including at the goal line in the final minute of the game (Saints had four TOs in that game to Tampa Bay’s none). The Bucs then traveled to London for a Week 7 game with the Bears and lost 24-18. A week after QB Freeman had 303 yards with two TDs and no INTs vs the Saints and Graham ran for 109 yards, Freeman had four INTs (51.4 QB rating) vs the Bears, as the Bucs totaled 280 yards on offense. Graham was lost for the year with an in jury in the London game, as the Bucs ran for 30 yards on 11 carries. That sets up this game in New Orleans. The Saints are a half-game up on the Bucs and Falcons (Atlanta plays at 0-8 Indy) entering Week 9 (halfway point of a 17-week schedule). The Bucs get good news in that Blount is expected back from his knee injury, which is a big deal with Graham on IR. However, while Blount rand for 1,007 yards last year (5.0 YPC), he’s got a modest 328 yards this season with his lone 100-yard effort coming against winless Indy (127 yards). In his other four games, he’s run for just 201 yards (3.9 YPC). QB Josh Freeman had a breakout season in his second year (2010), with 25 TDs and just six INTs (474 attempts) in 16 games (QB rating of 95.9). However, after just seven games in 2011, he’s already been intercepted 10 times (in only 270 attempts) with just seven TDs plus a QB rating of 73.1. The Saints are a different team at home. They’ve had to play FIVE of their first eight games on the road (2-3) but here in the Superdome, they are 3-0 SU and ATS. The team has averaged 44.0 PPG and 464.3 YPG. Brees is completing 75.9% in those three home games, averaging 321.7 YPG through the air with 11 TDs and just two INTs. Brees threw his only TD pass last Sunday in St Louis with just six seconds remaining in the contest. It marked his 35th consecutive game with at least one TD pass, leaving him one shy of Brett Favre’s 36-game streak, which is currently second to only the 47-game streak owned by Johnny Unitas. The Saints (or Brees) are not worrying all that much about that record but expect Brees to get a TD pass in his 36th straight game on Sunday (actually, my over/under is three TDs), as the Saints roll to an easy win in a great revenge spot. The Saints are a different team at home and the Bucs find that out here. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' NFL November Underdog of the Month (won 6 of 8 NFL weeks TY!)
My 9* NFL Underdog of the Month is on the SD Chargers at 4:15 ET.

The Packers come off their bye week as the NFL’s lone unbeaten at 7-0. The team has won nine straight regular season games (last two of the 2010 season) and 13 in a row if one considers its 4-0 run during last year’s postseason (10-3 ATS). Green Bay is off to its best start since opening 10-0 in 1962 but one can wonder if the bye was good for this team, since it was hitting on all cylinders before the break. Head coach Mike McCarthy gave his players two extra days off (in addition to the contract-mandated four). Aaron Rodgers has been close to perfect to open the 2011 season. He’s completing a remarkable 71.5%, averaging 338.9 YPG and has 20 TDs against only three INTs. His QB rating is 125.7 on the year, with no game coming in under 111.4. The running game continues to do little (99.9 YPG / 3.8 YPC) but it just doesn’t seem to matter. The Packers receiving corps ranks with the best in the league, led by Jennings (42 catches) with big play WRs like Nelson (19.4 YPC) and Jones (17.2 YPC) plus don’t count out vet Donald Driver, who has just 13 catches on the year (he topped 1,000 yards in seven of 8 seasons from 2002-09, averaging 76 receptions per). Then there is TE Finley, who is developing into one of the NFL’s best, now that he’ healthy. Once again, can Rodgers maintain his laser-accurate hot streak, after the layoff? All season, he’s had to overcome Green Bay’s underachieving defense. The Packers ranked second in the NFL in points allowed (15.0 PPG) last year but this year’s unit is allowing 20.1. The pass D has repeatedly been burned by big plays and is allowing 288.9 YPG through the air, the second-most in the entire NFL (only the Pats allow more). However, the pass D does allows under 60% completions (59.7) and has 13 INTs (as compared to 12 TDs), so the team’s opposing QB rating is pretty good at 79.3 (9th-best in the NFL). I’ve only gone against Green Bay once this year and got burned, as after Atlanta took a 14-0 lead on that Sunday night game of Oct 9, the Packers scored the game’s final 25 points. However, I believe this is the time to go against them again. Everyone knows about San Diego’s woes, as the Chargers were “looking good” after a 4-1 start but after a bye, blew a 21-10 lead at the Jets lost 27-21)and then lost again at KC this past Monday night, 23-20 in OT (I had BOTH the Jets & Chiefs!). All of a sudden, the team is now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders (all 4-3) in the AFC West. While the Packers seemingly do everything right, the Chargers don’t seem to make anything easy. The team was No. 1 in both total offense (395.6 YPG ) and total defense (271.6 YPG) in 2010, yet finished 9-7. Special team gaffes, a poor turnover margin (minus-6) and crucial mistakes caused this extremely talented team to miss the postseason after winning four straight AFC West titles. Rivers came off another excellent year, completing 66.0 percent for 4,710 yards with 30 TDs and just 13 INTS and a 101.8 QB rating. That marked his third straight 4,000-plus season, never completing less than 65.0 percent, never having a QB rating below 100.0 and owning a 92-33 TD-to-INT ratio. However, he doesn’t look anything like that QB in the first part of 2011. He had an awful 51.4 QB rating in the Chargers’ 27-21 loss at the Jets (led 21-10 but were then shut out in the second half). He threw for just 179 yards with one TD and two INTs. He’s on pace for another 4,000-plus season in passing yards but his QB rating is very un-Rivers like. Disaster struck again this past Monday, as with San Diego on the verge of defeating Kansas City in regulation after marching to the Chiefs' 15-yard line, Rivers fumbled the snap on a first down with 48 seconds remaining, losing the football. The Chiefs would win in OT. Rivers completed 26 of 41 passes for 369 yards (no QB threw for more in a Week 8 game), but didn't have a TD pass, threw two interceptions and lost that key fumble. His 11 interceptions are the most in the NFL while his 80.7 QB rating ranks 19th (even the now-benched McNabb ows a 82.8 rating TY!). Head coach Norv Turner still has confidence in Rivers and I tend to agree (I don’t have as much faith in Turner). Bottom line is this. The Chargers remain as talented as any team in the league and getting them as a home underdog is a rarity. San Diego was only an underdog ONCE all of 2010 and it routed Indy 36-14 on the road in that one, as 2 1/2-point underdogs. This marks just the SIXTH time the Chargers have been home dogs since the start of the 2004 season (4-1 ATS in the previous five) and the first time they’ve been home dogs since 2007, when as 3 1/2 point home dogs to a 7-1 Colts team (Peyton was Peyton back then), they won outright, 27-21. I’m calling for another outright win here. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' NFL Week 9 Las Vegas Insider (5-1-1 on or against team in 2011)
My 8* NFL Week 9 Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

Pete Carroll is getting reminded about what it’s like to play in the NFL. Before spending nine years at USC (2001-09) in which he won seven straight Pac 10 titles (seven straight BCS Bowls from 2002-08 / won B2B national titles in ‘03 & ‘04), Carroll spent a year as the head coach of the Jets and three with the Pats (33-31, overall). He returned to the NFL with the Seahawks last year and famously won the NFC West with a 7-9 record but then upset the defending Super Bowl champs (New Orleans) 41-36 in the wild card round. However, Seattle decided to let the aging Matt Hasselbeck go via free agency and the Seahawks are left with Jackson and Whitehurst at QB. Whitehurst is NOT a starting QB in the NFL and Jackson is hardly much better. Marshawn Lynch THINKS he’s a RB in this league (just ask to him to replay his incredible run vs the Saints in LY’s postseason) but his stats hardly bare that out. He has contributed in the team's two wins (171 yards / 5.5 YPC) but as we saw last week vs Cincy (he returned after sitting out one game with an injury), he had only 24 yards on 16 carries. That gives him a grand total of 92 yards (2.1 YPC) in his four other games this year (all Seattle losses). For some reason, while Jackson was ready to get back in the lineup last week, Carroll chose to start Whitehurst. Let me let Carroll explain that himself. "In my mind I knew he could play" Carroll said. If so and as Carroll also affirmed, Jackson gives the team the best chance to win, why wouldn’t one start him if he's healthy enough to play? Is there something behind the scenes? If not, it's hard to understand why an NFL head coach would use his inferior backup to see if he "can get something going." Jackson entered the game after Seattle “didn’t get something going” and while he finished 21-of-40 for a career-high 323 yards, it was a hollow effort, as the Seahawks were NEVER in the game and scored just nine points with Jackson in control. Carroll also made an odd decision 14 seconds before halftime, with his team trailing 17-3. Instead of ordering a chip shot FG try, he had Marshawn Lynch run up the middle from the Bengals’ 3-yard line. Lynch was stopped short of the goal line and the clock ran out. Again, let’s hear from Carroll. "We learned about what happens when a coach gets hormonal and tries to freakin’ jam it down their throat for the touchdown there right at the half," Carroll said. "That was a mistake. It would have been a good call if we made it. But we didn’t. I have an attitude and a personality about how I want to do it. But as we’re developing as a team, we’re not quite capable to take advantage of that yet. I have a lot of times where I’ve been in that situation, and it’s worked out. And it hasn’t a couple times here. And I don’t mind the scrutiny. It is what it is. I’m not worried about it.’’ As for Dallas, the Jason & Jerry Show (that’s head coach Garrett & owner Jones) continue to say “not to worry,” even as the Cowboys were embarrassed 34-7 by the Eagles last Sunday night (my NFC East GOY was on the Eagles!). They may be “whistling past the graveyard” but then again, maybe not? Dallas has a very favorable schedule the next six weeks. First up is Seattle and then Buffalo in Week 10 at home. A trip to Washington is next and then a Thanksgiving home game vs the Dolphins, followed by 10 days off before going to Arizona. The Cowboys should be favored in ALL of those games and could easily win them all. Romo is Romo (who knows what to expect?) but he’s got excellent targets in TE Witten plus WRs Austin and Bryant. RB Murray may be a real find, as he followed his 253-yard game vs the Rams with 74 yards on just eight carries (9.3 YPC) vs the Eagles (wasn't his fault team was down 21-0, early). Let’s NOT “look ahead” but just focus on one game at a time. Dallas entered its game at Philly with the NFL’s No. 1 rush D (allowing 69.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC). but ran into Philly’s top-ranked rushing attack and got steamrolled (allowed 239 yards on 38 carries / 6.3 YPC). However, all Dallas has to contend with here is Seattle’s running game, one which ranks 31st in the NFL, gaining 77.7 YPG. As mentioned, neither Jackson nor Whitehurst present a threat at QB, so why can’t Dallas win as easily as it did here at Cowboys Stadium vs the Rams in Week 7 (beat the Rams 34-7)? Carroll’s Seahawks are 3-10 SU on the road since he took over in 2010 (including a postseason loss at Chicago), going 0-9-1 ATS in those 10 road losses. Nine of those 10 losses have come by 11 points or more, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. I’ve been near-perfect on or against the Cowboys in 2011. I played on them in Week 1 vs the Jets (W), on them against San Fran in Week 2 (P), on them again in Week 3 vs Washington (L), went ‘over’ vs Detroit in Week 4 (W), on them again in Week 6 vs the Pats (W), on them vs the Rams in Week 7 (W) and against them last Sunday night vs the Eagles (W). That’s 5-1-1 (83%) ATS. Seattle serves as the perfect foil in this one. Lay the points, as I move to 6-1-1 in Dallas games in 2011.

Good luck...Larry