11-24-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[timbob]

BIG AL

balt-3.5

[timbob]

scott sprietzer

dallas-7

[timbob]

Ben Burns

10* Texas +7.5 "Main Event"

[timbob]

Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM-NFL (5-0 TY in NFL)-Thursday
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The NFL schedule makers knew exactly what they were doing when they set this Thanksgiving night matchup between the “Brothers Harbaugh.” What they couldn’t have known, was that the 49ers would come to Baltimore with the NFL’s second-best record (9-1) and that their game with the 7-3 Ravens would be the perfect ending to a Thanksgiving Day of NFL football that begins with the 10-0 Packers facing the 7-3 Lions in Detroit. Neither John nor Jim are denying the importance of what will be the first-ever meeting between head-coaching brothers in NFL history. John is in his fourth season coaching Baltimore, leading the Ravens to the postseason in each of his first three seasons, and enters this game tied with Pittsburgh for the AFC North lead (own tie-breaker because of two wins over the Steelers TY) . "It's an amazing thing. To say that you're not thinking about it probably wouldn't be real," John said. "It's a historic thing, it's very special. I couldn't be more proud for our parents or for Jim. I just think it's really neat." Jim is in his first season with San Francisco and seems more business-like leading up to the game. San Francisco can clinch the division with a win and a Seattle loss to Washington on Sunday. "There's just not a lot of time to really even think about the warm and fuzzy reunions, or the nostalgia of it all," Jim said. "There's just work to be done." San Francisco hasn’t been to the postseason since 2002 (10-6) and in fact, hasn’t won as many as nine games (the team's current win total) since that year. Everyone acknowledges that the team’s turnaround is largely due to Harbaugh's tough attitude with his players following his lead. QB Alex Smith has always been viewed a a ‘bust’ (No. 1 overall pick in 2005) but he’s completing 62.4 percent with 13 TDs and just four INTs (93.9 QB rating). However, he’s averaging just under 200 YPG through the air and other than WR Crabtree (38 catches) and TE Davis (39), his receiving corps is less than impressive. Gore (870 yards / 4.6 YPC) leads a rushing attack which averages 134.2 YPG, sixth-best in the league. While the offense has been effective (25.6 PPG), it’s the defense, which ranks No. 1 in points allowed (14.5 PPG), that has been the ‘backbone’ of the team in 2011. The rush D ranks No. 1 (73.9 YPG) on 3.6 YPC and has yet to allow a rushing TD. The pass D has allowed 249.2 YPG and 14 TD passes but also has 15 INTs while allowing a modest 58.1 percent completion average. Baltimore knows a little about defense itself, allowing 17.6 PPG (third-best) and 93.2 YPG rushing on an impressive 3.3 YPC. The pass D allows just 53.3% completions (3rd-best), only 211.3 YPG with just seven TD passes and 11 INTs (also has 29 sacks!). Flacco has been ‘ripped’ this year for a number of poor efforts. After completing 60.0, 63.1 and 62,.6% in his first three seasons (the last two years passing for more than 3,600 yards with a TD-to-INT ratio of 46-22), he’s completing only 55.4% this year with a 12-8 ratio. Let me note that he’s got Boldin (44 catches), rookie Torrey Smith (29 catches / 20.3 YPC), TE Dickson (42 catches) plus Rice has a team-high 51 catches out of the backfield. Rice has run for 663 yards (4.2 YPC / 8 TDs), giving him 1,176 yards from scrimmage, second to only Chicago’s Forte. In a game being dubbed as the "HarBowl," here’s the bottom line. The 49ers are 4-0 on the road this year but let’s note that they barely escaped 13-8 at Cincy (tied at 3-3 with under five minutes left), trailed 23-3 at Philly before the Eagles IMPLODED (something the team has made a habit of doing in 2011) before winning 24-23 and trailed Detroit 19-15 with under two minutes left in the game before escaping with a 25-19 win. One could point to Baltimore’s notable ‘ugly’ performances this year, a 26-13 Week 2 loss at Tennessee, the team’s horrible performance in a 12-7 MNF loss at Jacksonville or the team’s 22-17 loss at Seattle. However, I’d rather point to Baltimore’s two wins over 7-3 Pittsburgh, its 29-14 win over 7-3 Houston and last week’s 31-24 win over then 6-3 Cincy (led 31-14 in the 4Q). More importantly, please note Flacco’s performances in those four games. He’s completed 63.4% for an average of 274.8 YPG with six TDs and only two INTs (in 130 attempts). John Harbaugh’s team has been terrific at home in his tenure, going 24-5 SU and 17-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. He's been particularly punishing vs NFC opponents in his career, averaging 27.7 PPG in 15 meetings, including going 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in home game. Older brother John ‘wins the turkey’ in this one!

[timbob]

Ben Burns


10* Blue Chip Total UNDER 56 GBAY/DETROIT


9* Early annihilator Cowboys -7

[timbob]

Big Al card for this Thanksgiving day

NCAA BASKETBALL
UTAH +15 1*

NFL
1* RAVENS -3 RAZOR SHARP HOLIDAY SMASH

4* PACKERS/LIONS UNDER 56.5TOTAL G.O.M.
3* DALLAS COWGIRLS -7 ELITE INFO WINNER
1* DETROIT +6.5 HIGH ROLLER GAME

[timbob]

DR BOB
best bet-DALLAS
strong opinion-RAVANS

[timbob]

BRANDON LANG

75 dime release: SF + 3.5
50 dime release: 2-team - 6 point teaser: Green Bay - 1/2 / Dallas - 1
20 dime release: 3 team parlay: Dallas UNDER 44.5 / Green Bay OVER 55.5 /
Baltimore UNDER 40

[timbob]

ROOT

PRIMETIME----------DETROIT.....PUT 30% OF BET ON THE MONEY LINE AT +225

MILLIONIRES-----DALLAS......bet before live moves up...showing -7 now

NO LIMIT--------------BALTIMORE

[timbob]

Dr. Bob

Green Bay (-6.5) 26 DETROIT 24
Over/Under Total: 55.5
09:30 AM Pacific Time, Thursday, 24-Nov-2011
Green Bay is 10-0 but the Packers’ bad defense makes them vulnerable to capable offensive teams with a good defense and that is exactly what the Lions are. The Packers offense is great, averaging 408 yards at 6.8 yards per play but their bend but don’t break defense has given up 392 yards at 6.3 yppl this season and it’s amazing that a team that is out-gaining their opponents by only 16 yards per game can have a scoring margin of +14.3 points. Green Bay has benefitted from being +12 in turnover margin, +2.1 in penalty margin per game and by being very efficient in the redzone while their opponents are not. Even with that being the case it is highly unlikely that Green Bay will continue to be +14.3 in scoring margin given their statistics. The Packers are actually +11.4 in compensated scoring after adjusting for their weak schedule and I project the Packers at +9.1 points going forward – so a good portion of the positive variance that the Packers have had this year isn’t likely to translate into future results.

Detroit has actually been better from the line of scrimmage than the Packers have been, as the Lions have out-gained their opponents by 56 yards per game and 0.6 yppl (5.7 yppl to 5.1 yppl). Detroit certainly has an offense capable of taking advantage of Green Bay’s bad defense between the 20’s and the Lions have Calvin Johnson to score in the redzone, which is something that other teams the Packers have faced have not had. The Lions also have a very strong pass defense (5.1 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team), which may be able to challenge Aaron Rodgers. The only other good pass defense that Green Bay has faced is that of the Chicago Bears and Green Bay averaged a modest 5.7 yppl and scored just 27 points in that game.

My math model projects the Lions to out-gain Green Bay by 28 yards in this game and the Packers aren’t likely to enjoy their usual +1.2 in turnovers (Detroit is +0.9 in turnovers). My math model that projects scores based on projected stats actually favors Detroit by 2 points in this game, but that model doesn’t really apply here since Green Bay consistently out-plays their stats. My other model takes that into account and that model only favors the Packers by 2 ½ points in this game. Even taking a look at compensated points would favor Detroit to cover in this game. I mentioned earlier that Green Bay has been +11.4 in compensated points (+14.3 points against a schedule that is 2.9 points easier than average). Detroit’s average scoring margin is +8.2 points per game (30.1 to 21.9) and the Lions have faced a schedule that is 0.9 points easier than average, so they’re compensated scoring is +7.3 points. That’s a difference of only 4.1 points and home field is worth 2.5 points, so even using compensating scoring would favor the Packers by only 1 ½ points in this game. I think my model that favors Green Bay by 2 ½ points is the most accurate fair line in this game and home underdogs that average 360 total yards or more are 75-45-1 ATS, including 7-4 ATS this season. Green Bay, however, does apply to a 40-14-1 ATS national TV favorite angle, so the technical analysis is pretty much a wash. I’ll like Detroit plus the points based on the line value and I’d consider Detroit a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.