UFC 141 Bets Thread [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Ludo

12-26-2011, 08:53 PM

2011 MMA/Boxing Bets Tracker

What will be tracked?

Straight bets
-Fights that are posted like this:
-Tim Sylvia risking 100 units to win 1 unit
-Seth Petrizezli risking .6 units to win 1 unit
-Andy Wang risking 2 units to win 1.6 units

Props (will be tallied as straight bets)
-Edgar by TKO risking 1u to win 7.5u

-Parlays will be tracked seperately.

-We will have a seperate results thread for Boxing and MMA

Ludo

12-26-2011, 08:54 PM

.5u to win 1.1u on Diaz

1u to win 1.3u Parlay on Fitch/Gustafsson/Hyun Kim
1u to win 1.036u Parlay on Castillo/Cerrone

Luke

12-26-2011, 09:01 PM

Assuming you want Cerrone to win so why not just bet him straight?

poopoo333

12-26-2011, 09:04 PM

3u to win 8.4u on Nate Diaz
3u to win 3.45u on Brock Lesnar

5u to win 8.85u on Alexander Gustafsson/Ross Pearson/Not Hendricks by sub/Not Cerrone by sub/Overeem vs Brock doesn't start round 4

Ludo

12-26-2011, 11:54 PM

Assuming you want Cerrone to win so why not just bet him straight?

I don't like his line straight, I think it's off at -280 which is why I put a small straight on Diaz to begin with. I think Cerrone will win but I'm not paying Anderson Silva money on him over Diaz.

MMA_scientist

12-27-2011, 09:41 AM

6u to win 2.04u "Not Cerrone/Hendricks/Gusstaffson by sub"

Lesnar 2u to win 2.4u

Diaz .5u to win 1.12u

(2011 Parlay: Not Hendricks by sub)

Vandelay

12-27-2011, 01:07 PM

How'd you get over 100 dollars on that magic prop parlay? 5d is limiting me to 100 dollars.

MMA_scientist

12-27-2011, 01:22 PM

I have about $1600 on it. I placed it last week though... sometimes 5d gives me trouble, but for whatever reason, just bet an odd amount, like $399 and it lets me do it or sometime I just have to keep betting $100 over and over. But this time, it didn't give me any trouble. I originally included "not Hettes by sub" but hedged out of that with a bet on Hettes by sub, which is why I have so much on it (because I am on both sides of the Hettes sub).

Vandelay

12-27-2011, 01:34 PM

I guess it cant go over the lowest amt. So i did not cerrone by sub at -395, not overeem at -1400, and not hendricks at like -1700. I cant bet anything over 395. So it ended up being 395 to win like 166.

MMA_scientist

12-27-2011, 01:39 PM

yeah, it is weird. I thought they capped my bets earlier this year because I couldn't bet over $100. But I think it is just a glitch in their system.

BIGDAY

12-27-2011, 02:33 PM

I jumped on Cerrone. I think his style matches up perfect with Diaz. Diaz at +200 or better is real nice one would think right... Diaz struggles with agressive/relentless wrestlers imo. I am 100% confident that Cerrone can get this fight to the ground if stand up isn't going well for him. Only way Diaz's hand is raised imo is by catching Cerrone with a nice sub. Was hoping that the books have the odds closer to EV but I have this fight capped at -350 for Cerrone so I played it strait.

Currently have 3 Units on Cerrone at -250.

SPX

12-27-2011, 02:39 PM

Why so much faith in Cerrone's wrestling? I think he's a CAPABLE wrestler, but not a GOOD wrestler, and not the type of fighter to give Diaz too much trouble in that department.

BIGDAY

12-27-2011, 02:50 PM

Why so much faith in Cerrone's wrestling? I think he's a CAPABLE wrestler, but not a GOOD wrestler, and not the type of fighter to give Diaz too much trouble in that department.

I looked more at Diaz's takedown defense. Diaz is so confident on his back, that sometimes I wonder if he even attempts to defend the takedowns. I also believe that Cerrone's camp has a number on Diaz...

Ludo

12-27-2011, 03:58 PM

I looked more at Diaz's takedown defense. Diaz is so confident on his back, that sometimes I wonder if he even attempts to defend the takedowns. I also believe that Cerrone's camp has a number on Diaz...

Not according to Melvin Guillard, but I see what your saying about the takedowns. Cerrone is a pretty capable submission guy himself. It's fair to say he should have plenty of experience fending off subs.

Luke

12-27-2011, 05:06 PM

I don't like his line straight, I think it's off at -280 which is why I put a small straight on Diaz to begin with. I think Cerrone will win but I'm not paying Anderson Silva money on him over Diaz.

Got ya. Didn't realize you bet Diaz first

Vandelay

12-27-2011, 05:54 PM

i'm surprised luke didn't neg us all for chatting in a bet thread.

Ludo

12-27-2011, 09:17 PM

He started the chatter. If anything we should all neg him.

BIGDAY

12-28-2011, 10:28 AM

2 Unit Parlay
Gustafsson+Pearson+Lesnar/Overeem Fight Wont Start Rd 4
Pays +137

Thewisemann

12-29-2011, 10:22 AM

Gust, Pearson, Castillo, Kim,Volkmann .5u to win 1.89u
Lesnar 1u to win 1.15u
Lesnar dec .1u to win 1.5u
Reem/Lesnar under 1.5 rds .8u to win .5u
Pearson/Kim over 1.5 rds .87u to win .5u
Gamburyan .5u to win 1.25u
Diaz 1u to win 2.1u
Hendricks .5 to win 1u

Thewisemann

12-29-2011, 10:28 AM

AC88

12-29-2011, 03:00 PM

Gustaf. 3u to win 1u.

Thewisemann

12-29-2011, 07:30 PM

Lesnar 1u to win 1.3u
Diaz .5u to win 1.24u

Luke

12-29-2011, 09:03 PM

Cerrone -265

5 to win 1.89

BIGDAY

12-29-2011, 09:57 PM

Very confident in Cerrone.

mike

12-30-2011, 12:04 AM

Hendricks 2u to win 3.8u
Cerrone 2u to win .8u
Kim/Pierson over 1.5rounds 2u to win 1.2u
Phan/Hettes over 8.5mins 2u to win .92u

End of the year wiseman special:
Reem, Cerrone, Hendricks, Gustafsson, Phan, Pearson, Castillo, Pierson, Volkman, Nunes .2u to win 38u lulz

Luke

12-30-2011, 01:08 AM

Very confident in Cerrone.

I don't know what I'm doing so just ignore me.

Mr. IWS

12-30-2011, 08:33 AM

Reem 1.4 unit to win 1

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 09:34 AM

6u to win 2.04u "Not Cerrone/Hendricks/Gusstaffson by sub"

Lesnar 2u to win 2.4u

Diaz .5u to win 1.12u

(2011 Parlay: Not Hendricks by sub)

Adding:

Hendricks .5u to win .97u

Gustaffson by submission: .5u to win 2.99u

Not Hendricks/Cerrone/Pearson/Njkouni by sub 1.11u to win .5u

BIGDAY

12-30-2011, 09:53 AM

4 Units Cerrone
2 Unit Parlay Pearson+Gustafsson+Lesnar/Overeem Doesn't start 4th Rd Paying +137
.5 Unit Hendricks

Ready to Rock boys!!! We should be in for a good night of fights!!!

Thewisemann

12-30-2011, 11:04 AM

Lesnar sub .2u to win 1.91u
Lesnar split/maj dec .05u to win 3.41u
diaz/cerrone goes the distance 1.15u to win 1u

Wiseman special,
Lesnar sub
Diaz/cerrone goes the distance
fitch/hendricks over 2.5 rds
Gust ITD
Phan
Castillo sub
Pearson
Kim/Pearson over 1.5 rds
Volkmann
Riddle
Gamburyan
.01u to win 33.28u

Same as about minus Phan, Riddle, kim/Pearson over and Gamburyan
.03u to win 8.91u

High5

12-30-2011, 12:15 PM

Lesnar 8u to win 10.76u
Overeem 2u to win 4.4u in first round
Cerrone 4.5u to win 2u
Fitch 4.6u to win 2u
R Pearson 10u to win 4u
Volkman 4u to win 2u
Gamburyan .76 to win 2u

Mr. IWS

12-30-2011, 01:13 PM

Am i the only one on Reem?

Luke

12-30-2011, 01:32 PM

Am i the only one on Reem?

I will be also

SPX

12-30-2011, 01:56 PM

I will be also

You can't do that.

You've already predicted Brock to win.

Luke

12-30-2011, 02:14 PM

You can't do that.

You've already predicted Brock to win.

Haha. Also said the fight was a toss up. Now what am I going to do? Bet Lesnar,Reem ,or pass?

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 02:15 PM

Just tell us who you bet after the fight is over like you usually do.

Ludo

12-30-2011, 02:18 PM

Haha. Also said the fight was a toss up. Now what am I going to do? Bet Lesnar,Reem ,or pass?

This was pretty much My thinking here. There are too many known unknowns here. Too many things we have identified as incalculable variables, any and all of which could directly impact this fight for either side. No bet for Me.

Mr. IWS

12-30-2011, 02:19 PM

Just tell us who you bet after the fight is over like you usually do.

I thought that was Vandalay?

Luke

12-30-2011, 02:21 PM

Just tell us who you bet after the fight is over like you usually do.

Fail.........wrong guy.

Luke

12-30-2011, 02:23 PM

This was pretty much My thinking here. There are too many known unknowns here. Too many things we have identified as incalculable variables, any and all of which could directly impact this fight for either side. No bet for Me.

Will be honest I thought Lesnar was going to win but hadn't even started researching the fight till last night .

Ludo

12-30-2011, 02:34 PM

Will be honest I thought Lesnar was going to win but hadn't even started researching the fight till last night .

I started thinking about it weeks ago and I'm still not sure. What it comes down to is whether or not Brock can get the takedown, and whether or not Reem can land a big strike before that. It's really a 50/50 type fight between a wrestler and european kickboxer.

poopoo333

12-30-2011, 02:37 PM

3u to win 8.4u on Nate Diaz
3u to win 3.45u on Brock Lesnar

5u to win 8.85u on Alexander Gustafsson/Ross Pearson/Not Hendricks by sub/Not Cerrone by sub/Overeem vs Brock doesn't start round 4

adding:

1.55u to win 1u DHK/Pierson over 1.5 rds
0.75u to win 1.76u on Manny Gamburyan
1.05u to win 1u Hettes/Phan goes to decision
0.25u to win 1.5u on Alexander Gustafsson by sub
0.5u to win 1.02u on Johnny Hendricks
0.5u to win 8.6u on Nate Diaz (T)KO
0.5u to win 0.88u on Brock Lesnar (T)KO
0.5u to win 4.79u on Brock Lesnar by sub
1u to win 1.04u Alistair Overeem by (T)KO

0.25u to win 6.25u on Alexander Gustafsson sub of night
0.15u to win 3.15u on Johnny Hendricks KO of the night
0.5u to win 6.5u on Brock sub of night

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 03:08 PM

^ Why do you think Gus is going to sub Janitor?

poopoo333

12-30-2011, 03:12 PM

^ Why do you think Gus is going to sub Janitor?

I think he will swarm on Vladdy on the ground and latch on to a sub.. probably RNC

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 03:14 PM

I think he will swarm on Vladdy on the ground and latch on to a sub.. probably RNC

yeah, could happen, that's why I hedged it. But Vlad has never been subbed in his long ass career in 30 something fights , despite being in there with some pretty great grapplers.

Luke

12-30-2011, 03:22 PM

I started thinking about it weeks ago and I'm still not sure. What it comes down to is whether or not Brock can get the takedown, and whether or not Reem can land a big strike before that. It's really a 50/50 type fight between a wrestler and european kickboxer.

Actually researched this fight,possibly more than any other fight this year. Brock was able to get Cain down because he was much smaller than him and even then he could not hold him down except for a few seconds.When he fought Carwin he didnt have a prayer of getting him down until he was so exhausted he was ready to fall over. Reem is even bigger than Carwin .Even though he is no where near the wrestler Shane is I think with his strength he'll be able to fend off Brock.Brock is also wild and sloppy with punches,knees,etc and I think that is going to hurt him bad against someone as technical as Reem .I think this fight is going to be a mirror image of the Cain and Carwin fights(without Carwin gassing out like an oversized Baroni) with Brock going in wild ,realizing he cant get a TD,doing his spin dance, and getting pounded out.

Brock also seems very nervous going into this fight almost like he knows it's the end of the line for him.

Svino

12-30-2011, 03:27 PM

Lesnar 4u to win 5.2u
Diaz 2u to win 4.7u
Hendricks 2u to win 4.7u
Gamburyan 1u to win 2.2u
Riddle 1.7u to win 1u

Overeem wins KOotN, 1u to win 2.5u
Hettes by decision, 1u to win 3.3u
Hettes vs. Phan goes the distance, 1u to win 1.1u
No award for SotN, 0.5u to win 4.5u

Ludo

12-30-2011, 03:44 PM

Actually researched this fight,possibly more than any other fight this year. Brock was able to get Cain down because he was much smaller than him and even then he could not hold him down except for a few seconds.When he fought Carwin he didnt have a prayer of getting him down until he was so exhausted he was ready to fall over. Reem is even bigger than Carwin .Even though he is no where near the wrestler Shane is I think with his strength he'll be able to fend off Brock.Brock is also wild and sloppy with punches,knees,etc and I think that is going to hurt him bad against someone as technical as Reem .I think this fight is going to be a mirror image of the Cain and Carwin fights(without Carwin gassing out like an oversized Baroni) with Brock going in wild ,realizing he cant get a TD,doing his spin dance, and getting pounded out.

Brock also seems very nervous going into this fight almost like he knows it's the end of the line for him.

I hear you on the size thing. Thats why it's a question mark as to whether Brock can secure the takedown or not. If he can, he probably wins this fight once he forces Reem to tire out. If he can't, he's likely getting knocked out or dropped and then pounded out. I don't see a submission working for Reem other than maybe a guillotine but he'll be looking for the knockout all night.

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 04:07 PM

Size just makes it harder for Reem to get up IMO. If he doesn't KO Brock immediately (which he definitely might), I think Brock will be getting the takedown if he can get into a clinch.

poopoo333

12-30-2011, 04:08 PM

I share basically the same thoughts as you Luke... about the Cain and Carwin ones too...especially the early stages of the Carwin fight. I just think if Brock tries against the fence, Overeem is gonna get tired from defending and it will weaken his strikes. I just can't get the image of Ubereem's cardio in the Werdum fight...that was ridiculous.

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 04:16 PM

Actually researched this fight,possibly more than any other fight this year. Brock was able to get Cain down because he was much smaller than him and even then he could not hold him down except for a few seconds.When he fought Carwin he didnt have a prayer of getting him down until he was so exhausted he was ready to fall over. Reem is even bigger than Carwin .Even though he is no where near the wrestler Shane is I think with his strength he'll be able to fend off Brock.Brock is also wild and sloppy with punches,knees,etc and I think that is going to hurt him bad against someone as technical as Reem .I think this fight is going to be a mirror image of the Cain and Carwin fights(without Carwin gassing out like an oversized Baroni) with Brock going in wild ,realizing he cant get a TD,doing his spin dance, and getting pounded out.

Brock also seems very nervous going into this fight almost like he knows it's the end of the line for him.

thats gotta be some of the worst logic i've heard regarding mma. Size doesn't mean shit. wrestling is what nullified brock. Cain, Carwin and even Randy were all able to force a standup battle because they knew the intricacies of details that overeem will never even learn.

MMA_scientist

12-30-2011, 04:21 PM

^^ Although luke is going get shitty with your tone, I have to agree. That said, Brock's striking is a lot worse than Reem's grappling... if it goes down, Reem can probably survive for a while. If it stays upright, Brock is dead in the water.

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 04:46 PM

lol probably. Thought about saying no offense, but that post bordered on trolling. I think brock has decent standup, its just he doesnt know what to do when he takes a flush shot. He throws good hooks, straights, and the like with good power. Doesn't necessarily mean theyre technically crisp or anything but with his threat of the takedown he should be able to be effective. Plus, wasn't it just a cpl months ago that k1 werdum and his shitty standup outstruck or held his own with overeem.

Svino

12-30-2011, 05:37 PM

Plus, wasn't it just a cpl months ago that k1 werdum and his shitty standup outstruck or held his own with overeem.

Not to mention the fact that Overeem's been knocked out quite a bit. I don't think you can rule out Brock putting Overeem's lights out with a punch.

High5

12-30-2011, 06:06 PM

Gustafsson/R Pearson/ Volkmann 2.8u to win 3.76u

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 06:35 PM

7.05 to win 3 Phan

1 to win 2.2 Hendricks

3.225 to win 1.5 Volkman

.52 to win .5 Not gustaf itd

1.275 to win .75 castillo

1 to win 1.6 cerrone by 3 rd dec

.25 to win 1.0625 hendricks by 3 rd dec

1 to win 3 diaz/cerrone to win fotn

3.95 to win 1.66 not overeem, hendricks, cerrone by sub

4 to win 3.04 fedor, not overeem by 5 rd dec, hendricks, cerrone, njkouani by sub and hettes by tko/ko

Will probably add to hendricks and maybe phan if line keeps improving

Luke

12-30-2011, 06:38 PM

thats gotta be some of the worst logic i've heard regarding mma.Thought about saying no offense, but that post bordered on trolling.

Preciously the reason I never waste my time giving opinions on fights .::handshake::

edman5555

12-30-2011, 06:44 PM

Brock Ko of the night 2u to win 16u
Brock 2u to win 2.6u
Brock sub .25u to win 2.5u
Pierson 2u to win 6.6u
Phan 4.35u to win 2.5u
Volkmann 2.1u to win 1u
Castillo 3u to win 1.8u

SPX

12-30-2011, 06:48 PM

Size doesn't mean shit.

I guess it was all skill that allowed Tibau to completely brutalize Caol Uno. . .

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 07:19 PM

I guess it was all skill that allowed Tibau to completely brutalize Caol Uno. . .

Doesnt quite apply when neither guy is a wrestler.

edman5555

12-30-2011, 07:21 PM

adding matyushenko 1u to win 3u

SPX

12-30-2011, 07:21 PM

I would certainly call Tibau a wrestler and Uno is certainly known more for his grappling ability than striking ability.

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 07:30 PM

i would classify uno as a grappler and same with tibau. neither are from a wrestling background tho which is the point i was making. Wrestling is generally only nullified by wrestling , not size.

Luke

12-30-2011, 08:13 PM

X don't waste your time. At the end of the night when Brock is laying on the mat and Reem's hand is raised he'll look down at his dick in his hand and say "size doesn't matter."

edman5555

12-30-2011, 08:38 PM

Actually researched this fight,possibly more than any other fight this year. Brock was able to get Cain down because he was much smaller than him and even then he could not hold him down except for a few seconds.When he fought Carwin he didnt have a prayer of getting him down until he was so exhausted he was ready to fall over. Reem is even bigger than Carwin .Even though he is no where near the wrestler Shane is I think with his strength he'll be able to fend off Brock.Brock is also wild and sloppy with punches,knees,etc and I think that is going to hurt him bad against someone as technical as Reem .I think this fight is going to be a mirror image of the Cain and Carwin fights(without Carwin gassing out like an oversized Baroni) with Brock going in wild ,realizing he cant get a TD,doing his spin dance, and getting pounded out.

Brock also seems very nervous going into this fight almost like he knows it's the end of the line for him.

"doing his spin dance" I lol'd at that and I have money on Brock.

High5

12-30-2011, 08:42 PM

castillo 3.6u to win 2u

Vandelay

12-30-2011, 10:11 PM

went another 2.47 to win 1.5 on phan

Luke

12-30-2011, 10:39 PM

Reem -130

5 to win 3.85

If Cerrone wins may add more

edman5555

12-30-2011, 10:54 PM

added hendricks 1.5u to win 3.1u

edman5555

12-30-2011, 10:56 PM

adding hendricks .25u to win 1.5u

edman5555

12-30-2011, 11:24 PM

added lesnar 1u to win 1.3u.
added lesnar tko 1u to win 2u

edman5555

12-30-2011, 11:27 PM

added nate diaz 1u to win 2.45u

Luke

12-31-2011, 12:00 AM

Damn you Cerrone .Going big or going home last day of the year.

Adding

5 to win 3.57 on Reem -140

total is 10 to win 7.42 at -130 and -140

poopoo333

12-31-2011, 12:08 AM

0.5u to win 2.4u reem/brock starts round 4

Luke

12-31-2011, 12:45 AM

thats gotta be some of the worst logic i've heard regarding mma. Size doesn't mean shit. wrestling is what nullified brock. Cain, Carwin and even Randy were all able to force a standup battle because they knew the intricacies of details that overeem will never even learn.

::thumbup::