2012 Parlay

[MMA_scientist]

Will be tracked here.

MMA Scientist:
$1500 to win $158 on Not Evans by submission
$1658 to win $121 on Not Condit subs Diaz/Not Pierce subs Koscheck/not Nelson subs Werdum
$1779 to win $93.77 on Not Ellenberger to sub Sanchez
$1872 to win $187 on Not Akiyama to sub Shields/Not Boetch to sub Okami/Not Bart to sub Hioki
$700 to win $37.23 on Not Alves to sub Kampmann
$2096 to win $141.49 on Not Koscheck to sub Hendricks
$1200 to win $52 on Not JDS by sub/not Herman by sub.
$2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.
$1200 to win $73 on Not Guida by sub.
$2520 to win $150 "Not Kim to subit Maia/Not Ortiz to submit Forrest"
$1000 to win $80 on Not Henderson to sub Edgar
$1000 to win $52 on Not Stann to sub Bisping
$2800 to win $217 on Not Herman to sub Nog/Not Maldonado to sub Teixera/not Story to sub Maia
3069 to win 99 on not le by sub
1500 to win 80 on Not Rory to sub Penn
$1157 to win $100 on "not pearson by submission"
$1842 to win $100 on Not JDS by Sub
$1500 to win $34 on "not Saffidiene by sub"
$3000 to win $49.58 on "Not Rampage to sub Texeira"
$3049 to win $138 Not evans to sub nog/not Fitch to sub Maia
$1800 to win $111 on not carmouche/Hendo/L. Johnson/Lawler by sub
$675 to win $100 on not Stann by sub
$1035 to win $100 on not stann/Hunt by sub

4/12/13 8:49pm $1,000.00 $62.04 $1,062.04 Win 2 Team Parlay
Win 4/13/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1036 Any other result -3600* vs Jorgensen wins by submission
Win 4/13/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1328 Any other result -3000* vs Browne wins by submission

4/12/13 8:40pm $400.00 $104.97 $504.97 Win 3 Team Parlay
Win 4/13/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1036 Any other result -3600* vs Jorgensen wins by submission
Win 4/13/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1328 Any other result -3000* vs Browne wins by submission
Win 4/13/13 8:30pm Props Fighting 1528 Any other result -530* vs Samman wins by submission

4/5/13 4:20pm $1,000.00 $57.14 $1,057.14 Win 4/6/13 5:00pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -1750* vs Pearson wins by submission

1293 to win 100 on "not maynard subs grant"
$1500 to win $61 Not Hendo to sub Rashad/Not Miocic subs Nelson/Not Woodley subs shields


Running total: $4356.15 ($1500 beginning bankroll)

[poopoo333]

I might try something like this with you

[poopoo333]

Not Anthony Johnson by sub
Not Mike Massenzio by sub

[MMA_scientist]

Stop posting in my tracker thread. No chatter.

[poopoo333]

Stop posting in my tracker thread. No chatter.

Ok.

[MMA_scientist]

Track your plays in here with me. I am just going to track my 2012 parlay and keep a running total going in here.

[Mr. IWS]

Dumb idea for a thread. chatter is a mutherfucker. Free Mumia!

[poopoo333]

Track your plays in here with me. I am just going to track my 2012 parlay and keep a running total going in here.

How about we track our 2012 parlay along with our magic prop parlays to see how well/profitable they are in a year

[MMA_scientist]

Ok. I use the magic parlays in my normal bankroll though, with normal sized bets. But yeah, it would be interesting to see how much comes from just the parlays.

[poopoo333]

One last chatter:

How much $ did you make with the 2011 parlay?

[MMA_scientist]

I made $1700 in total. I built $400 into $2100. I started out with the magic parlays as part of it though, so it won't be like that this year.

[SPX]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL7zqZSDt58





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDAWWZJDNO8

[MMA_scientist]

http://www.contactmusic.com/pics/ld/day_of_children_151110/john_paul_mitchell_3098121.jpg

[SPX]

Don't even know who that is. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Paul Mitchell, I just thought it was funny that the the karate thing you posted was "Team Paul Mitchell". I didn't even watch the vid, just saw the "Team Paul Mitchell vs. Team..." and I got a kick out of it.

[SPX]

Oh yeah. Well when I learned about "Team Paul Mitchell" I thought for sure that it was just referencing some other dude with the same name. But no, the team really is sponsored by the hair care mogul and apparently has been going strong for over 25 years. . .

www.teampaulmitchellkarate.com

[sbjj]

I've been kind of doing this also. Picking two fighters an event. I will post them in here. Thinking Saff-?(Mo, Wood, Lawler) for this event. The max I can bet on my 2 fight parlay is 10 units. But is most likely 4 to 6 units.

[poopoo333]

Not Guillard by sub is the start of this for me

[MMA_scientist]

Not Guillard by sub is the start of this for me

me too, if it is offered. Was also going to do Not Bisping to sub Maia, maybe not Sonnen to sub Munoz... but those aren't happening now. I am wary of Weidman, though I doubt he can sub Maia, he did have a couple of tight guillotines on Galvao in ADCC. Weidman can grapple, I am scared of that. Maybe Not rashad for 50%.

[poopoo333]

Looks like it won't be offered. Gay!!

[MMA_scientist]

Play:

Not Evans by Submission -900 $900 to win $100. 5d won't let me go over $900 now. Probably drop another $600 once the limit is raised.

Evans has never even attempted a submission in the UFC. Davis is not going to be the first guy to get submitted here, as he is quite the grappler himself, and likes the submission game.

[poopoo333]

10u @-1020

Will hedge a little with rashad sub of night probably

[MMA_scientist]

Adding $600 @ -1020 to win $58.82

So it is $1500 to win $158.82 I am going to stop there.

So... 2012 Parlay begins. I am going to use a $1500 bankroll for the year. That is equivalent to 9.3u for me, I am just going to play with the profit from 2011. From here on out, it rides.

[sbjj]

For all the BS I talked about not betting Sonnen. I am starting to think my 2 fighter parlay for this event will be Sonnen-Dunham.

[edman5555]

i am slightly hesitant about Dunham. I was all about him before but I have some issues with Lentz. He is similar to Tyson Griffin and he was able to give Dunham a good fight(though Tyson is probably a better striker and also has better foot movement). Aurelio also gave dunham a good fight and sherk beat him. I know the Sherk Decision was lame. Dunham doesn't hit really really hard either. Lentz is an in your face fighter. I don't see what would stop Lentz from getting inside on Dunham. I don't think it will be especially hard punches..I could be wrong though.

[SPX]

The Griffin/Dunham fight was pretty much domination, in my opinion. That fight is actually the reason that I think Lentz has little chance here, with his best shot being to lock on a guillotine when Dunham is not suspecting it.

[edman5555]

hmmmm ok

[MMA_scientist]

For all the BS I talked about not betting Sonnen. I am starting to think my 2 fighter parlay for this event will be Sonnen-Dunham.

What about Oliveira? He should win that, I just finished looking at Wisely... I think he is behind everywhere, takedowns, striking, grappling... his best chance is to catch a submission on Oliveira, but that doesn't seem very likely.

But, he is -500. I would do it in a parlay, but I can't find the other half of it. Lentz is hard to bet. He always keeps it close (except against Oliveira).

[edman5555]

Lentz lost soundly to Bocek. Olivieria was kicking his ass. The rest of his fights were close. Supposedly the Tyson Griffin fight was a bad decision. I think Dana gave Tyson his win bonus. Lentz is pretty good. He still a short stubby wrestler though. He should have trouble with Dunhams reach and wrestling/grappling ability. I haven't read much about Wisely yet. I should do that tonight. I am still hoping for some sort of line improvement but it is starting to seem like its not going to happen. Anyways, I have 3u on Maia. I am now thinking about a Chael/Dunham/Oliv parlay. Or all three straight up. 5dimes reduced juice isn't parlayable so I'm actually better off betting them straight up. We'll see if they offer it. I guess I'll wait for that, so no more bets until the day before. (I am still worried the lines will go to shit, nobody wants to bet Bisping)

[poopoo333]

Anybody have a vid of Lentz/Bocek?

[sbjj]

So the 3 parlay candidates are Sonnen-Olive.-Dunham. The question is which of the 3 has the highest probability of losing.

And I agree with SPX. Dunham straight tooled Tyson both standing and on the ground. He was taking down Tyson easier than anyone(Sherk and Edgar) ever has. I think Dunham is finally realizing how good his wrestling really is, and I would not be surprised if he took Lentz down.

[sbjj]

Anybody have a vid of Lentz/Bocek?

I will do a quick play by play...
Round 1...Bocek takes Lentz down. Lentz looks to have a guillotine, no he does not. Lentz can not get up.


Round 2...See Round 1.

Round 2...See Round 1.

To be honest, it looked like Bocek was not worried about being subbed at all...he seemed to almost give him the guillotines.

[Vandelay]

I think Oliveira has the highest chance of losing and is the least proven. may actually throw a little on wisely. Then dunham.

[MMA_scientist]

Oliveira actually has more fights than Dunham, and has beaten similar level of competition in the UFC, and has similar losses (Dunham beat Griffin and Escudero, Do Bronx beat Lentz and Escudero; Dunham lost to Guillard and Sherk, Do Bronx lost to Cerrone and Miller). I think the difference is that Oliveira is fighting a weaker opponent. I mean, Lentz did beat Griffin- who I condsider Dunham's best win. Oliveira beat the shit out of Lentz (I know it was not a win, but it is a loss in the same way Matt Hammill beat Jon Jones).

That is my issue with the Sonnen fight too... it is not that he is bad, it is that his opponent is going to make it a lot harder for him to win. The distance between Dunham and Lentz is shorter than the distance between Oliveira and Wisely IMO. The same issue with Sonnen. I actually think Sonnen has a better style matchup than Dunham, but I think Bisping is a tougher opponent overall than Lentz.

So I guess it goes Oliveira, Sonnen, Dunham... That is pretty much what the lines say to at this point.

But at the current lines, I think Dunham is the only one I would even consider.

[edman5555]

Where did you see wisely fight video

[edman5555]

Btw sherdog scored Tyson lento 3 rounds for griffin. Mmajunkie scored it 29 28 tyson

[edman5555]

Dunham gets all three rounds on sherdog. He gets two on junkie. Against Tyson that is.

[MMA_scientist]

Dunham killed Griffin. I think Dunham is a super good grappler... his standup is pretty good too, but his grappling IMO. Lentz is a one trick pony on the mat, but he is a pretty solid wrestler too, so there could be a lot of clinching.

Lentz can't beat him except by decision, and even then, it will close. I just wish the line was more like -250 than -350. It is -500 on some sites, which seems pretty damn silly to me. I try to save my -400 lines for things are pretty much locks in my view... I just, it doesn't seem like that kind of fight to me. Still, I am still thinking about betting it.


Maia is up to +140 od 5d. I really don't get that at all. I mean, Weidman is tough and may beat him, but I just don't understand how he can be favored.

[edman5555]

I am going to add einemo to my bets. He is a lot bigger than russow and a very talented grappler. He should have a very big reach advantage as well. Russows striking isn't that great IMO. I def underrated him before but I don't think I am now
. What does everyone else think?

[MMA_scientist]

I like Einemo as a dog... but Russow is a pretty strong wrestler, he is going to be hard to get down. The thing that scares me is that Einemo is old and I think he only has 1 round in him.

[edman5555]

Russow is 35. That fight against Herman was balls to the wall also. Einemo knocker Herman down as well. You are right though, he looked tired. It was also his first fight after a long time. I would think he is in decent shape now.

[edman5555]

Provided he trained and didn't drink his bonus money. Also, he trains at golden glory so he has good training partners for the standup game. I happen to think that is where this fight is taking place. Russow is no world beater on the feet.

[MMA_scientist]

^ yeah, but he is tough to finish standing... I think Einemo will look for the takedown a lot and tire out. I don't know, Russow is fat, but he has shown that he can go for 15 minutes.

But it is +odds... probably worth a play on JOE

[MMA_scientist]

Not Condit, Nelson, Pierce...

They may all get put in the 2012 parlay this weekend.



Mod: Can you move the running total to post #1 please.
Just this part:

1500 to win 158 on "Not Evans by submission"

[poopoo333]

did it for ya..i put myself there too

[MMA_scientist]

wtf, poopoo is a mod now? This place is going straight in the shitter.

Thanks though.

[MMA_scientist]

I thought you were bailing out of this?

[poopoo333]

Not Condit, Nelson, Pierce...

They may all get put in the 2012 parlay this weekend.

Are you going to parlay them for the 2012 parlay?

[MMA_scientist]

yeah maybe, it will depend on the lines. None of them are happening.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, the one most likely to happen is Condit...and that is VERY unlikely.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I agree, because Condit actually has some pretty strong submission skills. He has submitted BJJ blackebelts before, but would have to break something off or choke him unconscious... Diaz won't tap. I love putting guys like that in these parlays, because it is that much less likely, not only do you have to catch them, you also have to finish it off. Condit is a pretty good grappler in his own right, but he hasn't subitted anyone since he started fighting better comp in the UFC. Still, we'll see what the line is. They are all 2012-worthy IMO at the right price.

[sbjj]

Yeah, I agree, because Condit actually has some pretty strong submission skills. He has submitted BJJ blackebelts before, but would have to break something off or choke him unconscious... Diaz won't tap. I love putting guys like that in these parlays, because it is that much less likely, not only do you have to catch them, you also have to finish it off. Condit is a pretty good grappler in his own right, but he hasn't subitted anyone since he started fighting better comp in the UFC. Still, we'll see what the line is. They are all 2012-worthy IMO at the right price.

2 fighter parlay nominees...Poitier, Barao(this one scares me a bit), Brown, Herman.

[sbjj]

Have no idea why I quoted you Scientist...my bad.

[MMA_scientist]

2 fighter parlay nominees...Poitier, Barao(this one scares me a bit), Brown, Herman.

Don't know much about Poirier's opponent, but it looks like a squash match. The guy is 4-0 with 3 decisions, including a split. He would have to have to be something pretty damn special to come in and have a chance with Poirier...

I already said I think Starks is a good deal against Herman- a better wrestler anyway. Maybe he can't get him down, I don't know.

I think Jorg is live.

Brown should win that, but it is probably going to play out standing... Cope has no power, but he does score some. Brown should win.

Of those choices, I like Poirier and Brown.

Then again, I lost all 3 of my bets last weekend... so I clearly don't know what the hell I am talking about. Just fade me on straight plays if you want to win money.

[sbjj]

Don't know much about Poirier's opponent, but it looks like a squash match. The guy is 4-0 with 3 decisions, including a split. He would have to have to be something pretty damn special to come in and have a chance with Poirier...

I already said I think Starks is a good deal against Herman- a better wrestler anyway. Maybe he can't get him down, I don't know.

I think Jorg is live.

Brown should win that, but it is probably going to play out standing... Cope has no power, but he does score some. Brown should win.

Of those choices, I like Poirier and Brown.

Then again, I lost all 3 of my bets last weekend... so I clearly don't know what the hell I am talking about. Just fade me on straight plays if you want to win money.

Pretty much agrre with you that Dustin and Matt are the 2 best options. I can see liking Starks because of the price, but I think Herman is just going to outwork him.

[edman5555]

Herman seems pretty crafty. I fear betting against anyone that can pull off a heel hook.

[poopoo333]

What makes you think Brown should be so favored over Cope? Brown is very unreliable, I would never bet him as a decent favorite

[sbjj]

What makes you think Brown should be so favored over Cope? Brown is very unreliable, I would never bet him as a decent favorite

Brown loses to good fighters.

[MMA_scientist]

Submission prop out for main event

Not Diaz -875

Not Condit -1275


I took "Not Condit by sub" for $1000. I am going to have to borrow from my bankroll to cover the "not Pierce" and and "not nelson" bets. I didn't want to miss the cheap line though by waiting for the other two to come out. I will probably drop another $500 on all 3, and then maybe another $1000 on a parlay of the other 2, assuming favorable lines.

[MMA_scientist]

Line already moved to -1750. You better wake up Jordan

[Vandelay]

went 875 to win 50 on it. May hedge out later, but I doubt this happens. Feel more confident in the not nelson by sub

[MMA_scientist]

It could happen, anything can. Condit has some legit submission skills, but Diaz is pretty damn great on the ground. I really don't think he will get submitted, by anyone, ever. I feel pretty good about not nelson and not pierce too.

[poopoo333]

I was in class when the lines came out..you fags pushed it up to -2600. I guarantee you two were the cause of it. Nobody else bets on that shit

[MMA_scientist]

I was in class when the lines came out..you fags pushed it up to -2600. I guarantee you two were the cause of it. Nobody else bets on that shit

Probably. I know for a fact that my measly 1000 bet moved it from -1275 to -1750, because as soon as i bet it, it was changed, instantly. I think it takes more than a grand to move a line usually, but I did bet it very soon after it opened. Sometimes they won't let me go over $1000, but this time they did. I think if the is enought money on Diaz straight, they somehow figure it in with the prop limits. Someone else had to bet it though, because it didn't move for a while after Vandelay bet it. But I don't think the lines move straight... like I think a straight bet on Diaz will move the line on "Not Condit by sub" through some fancy math.

That's ok though, now there is no pressure, you can wait for the Nelson and Pierce lines...

[poopoo333]

I will just parlay Not Nelson/Pierce/Condit by sub

[poopoo333]

And if Not Nelson by sub is less than -1000 somehow, I will add that to the 2012 parlay.

[trotterz]

I was in class when the lines came out..you fags pushed it up to -2600. I guarantee you two were the cause of it. Nobody else bets on that shit


I always do too, just not usually post my bets on here. But those kinds of parlays are risky for sure, because there is a lot of money involved to win small, but on the long term, it pays a lot.

But I am not one of the guys who caused the line to get that high this time, when I saw the line, it was also -2600 for me also .... you have to get the line right when it gets posted, which I almost never get

[MMA_scientist]

Sometimes they stay put for a while, I usually don't bet them early... I just did this time because I felt the line would move dramatically. -2600 isn't that bad IMO... I bet them into -8000 territory before. The submission prop lines really don't make sense a lot of the time, they really have not figured out a good way to set them IMO. I am still going to bet it at -2600 when the other lines come out.

[MMA_scientist]

And if Not Nelson by sub is less than -1000 somehow, I will add that to the 2012 parlay.

I am putting all 3 of them in the 2012 parlay.

Nelson is not going to be less than -1000. It is going to be like -3000. Werdum has never been subbed and Roy hasn't subbed anyone in like 6 years.

[MMA_scientist]

You might be able to fashion a magic parlay if you include "not starks" and "not jorg". Jorg has a nasty guillotine though, so I am not going to do that. But You might be able to substitute something else in there to come in under -400.

[Vandelay]

Line went from 1750 to 2600 right after I bet it.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Condit bu submission down to -1850. Go poopoo.

[poopoo333]

Not Condit by sub down to -1850

[MMA_scientist]

Not Condit by sub -1850.

[poopoo333]

Not Condit by sub down to -1850

31 minutes later:



Not Condit by sub -1850.

[MMA_scientist]

lmao

Post #72


Not Condit bu submission down to -1850. Go poopoo.

Post #73


Not Condit by sub down to -1850

Post #74


Not Condit by sub -1850


So... yeah. I thought we were just posting the same thing over and over since you posted the exact same thing I posted. Are we not doing that?

[poopoo333]

Fucking banned

[poopoo333]

I want to add Not Nelson by sub too, so I am waiting. Unless I split up my $439.22 on both?

[MMA_scientist]

Why don't you use your new mod powers to change the order of the posts so that you don't seem so tarded?

[MMA_scientist]

I want to add Not Nelson by sub too, so I am waiting. Unless I split up my $439.22 on both?

i would wait. It probably won't move much now.

[poopoo333]

Why don't you use your new mod powers to change the order of the posts so that you don't seem so tarded?

Because I'm not a true commy

[MMA_scientist]

If the nelson and pierce lines dont' come out tonight, I am going to put what is rest on the 2012 parlay bankroll ($558) on "not condit" @ -1850

Mark it down.

[MMA_scientist]

Went ahead and bet the remaining 558 on not nelson and not pierce by sub to win 41

[Ludo]

You lying motherfucker. You said you wouldn't be here today!

[MMA_scientist]

I brought my tablet... i am out of town until wednesday. I found access so i couLd bet, figured i should p00ost while iwas at it. Also dangerously close to betting kos

[poopoo333]

10.98u to win 1.28u on Not Pierce/Nelson/Condit by sub

[MMA_scientist]

Poopoo, would you move this to the first post:

Not Condit subs Diaz/Not Pierce subs Koscheck/not Nelson subs Werdum

$1558 to win $121

running bankroll tally: $1679

[poopoo333]

Did you shit your pants when Nelson had the standing guillotine? I did.

[poopoo333]

If we gets props for Fuel...is there anything worth it for the parlay?

I say wait for UFC 144. Not Rampage/Bader/Okami/Boetsch/Akiyama/Hunt by sub. Choose a few.

[MMA_scientist]

Sorry, poopoo, I forgot to carry the 1. Running tally is actually $1779... all week I thought I only had $1558 to work with, and I had $1658. Change that please.

I wasn't worried about the guillotine. I didn't think he had anything there.

I haven't looked at the Fuel card yet... they probably won't offer props on it. I don't think they did for the last Fuel card did they?

[poopoo333]

I haven't looked at the Fuel card yet... they probably won't offer props on it. I don't think they did for the last Fuel card did they?

It's the first fuel card. So no.

[poopoo333]

Not Ellenberger by sub????

[Vandelay]

Ive found a rolling parlay option on 5d. Started with 500 and just putting heavy faves or things I dont see happening in it. Not really restricting it to a sport. But im adding not ellenberger and herman by sub to it. need 15 total plays to finish it. these two will be the third and fourth plays.

Not sure if scientist does this or just puts the whole parlay acct into each bet. I kinda like this one tho. Could also prevent me from making stupid bets.

[Ludo]

Not Ellenberger by sub????

Solid play. Diego has great submission defense and overall grappling. It took Marcelo Garcia like 11 minutes to lock something up, Diego kept working from top position and surviving until then. To put it in perspective Marcelo absolutely clowned Andrei Arlovski(former youth sambo champion and took 2nd place in the world championships and the sambo world cup), and subbed him multiple times in a similar amount of time.)

[poopoo333]

Diego has never been subbed in a fight, and Ellenberger has only subbed cans, and hasn't had a sub since 2005.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, that is good. I just dropped $1779 on it @ -1897 to win $93.77. I do have some nerves about it, not sure why. Diego has very good defense. As mentioned, he grappled with Marcelo for a long time, even before he had any actual bjj training. Since then, he went and trained with Saulo got to brown belt I believe, and then went back to Jackson's. I don't recall him ever being in a catch in MMA, despite being in there with BJ, Diaz, Karo, Kampmann, Thiago... he should be good to go.

I am not going to do the Herman/Struve one. The line is worse and it seems more likely to happen IMO.

[poopoo333]

$490.27 to win $25.84 on Not Jake Ellenberger by sub

[poopoo333]

Looking ahead to UFC 144, not Tim Boetsch, Yushin Okami, Rampage, Ryan Bader by sub look like fair additions. I would probably pick the Bader one out of all of them

[trotterz]

Looking ahead to UFC 144, not Tim Boetsch, Yushin Okami, Rampage, Ryan Bader by sub look like fair additions. I would probably pick the Bader one out of all of them

lol I was also looking ahead this morning for further opportunities for not by sub parlay and I fell on those exact 3 too for that event, okami, rampage and boetsch.
Really confident in all of those
I also really like Not Alves by sub in the event following UFC 144, and maybe not philippou by sub also

[poopoo333]

I like Not Alves by sub as well. Then UFC 145..not Rashad by sub but that will be like -1,000,000.

[MMA_scientist]

I like those for a magic parlay, probably won't do any for the 2012 prop parlay. Maybe, not Boetch for the 2012 parlay. I don't know, not Bader might be worth a play too.

[MMA_scientist]

$490.27 to win $25.84 on Not Jake Ellenberger by sub

it is -4500 now. Seeing this more and more... have to nab these early.

[MMA_scientist]

Poopoo, add this to post # 1:

"$1779 to win 93.77 on Not Ellenberger to sub Sanchez

Running total: $1872 ($1500 beginning bankroll)"


Thanks. 2012 parlay rolls on.

[poopoo333]

all updated

[poopoo333]

Will probably do a parlay for next event...not boetsch and bader by sub. Also might add not mark hunt by sub as well...but HW fights are fucking weird

[trotterz]

Will probably do a parlay for next event...not boetsch and bader by sub. Also might add not mark hunt by sub as well...but HW fights are fucking weird

replace hunt by rampage

[trotterz]

after looking at it, Hunt is probably a good option also

[Ludo]

I'm going to try an experimental project with -300 or better favorites. Kind of like a straight bet locks type parlay. If you want, Scientist, I'll make My own thread for it.

Basically I'm going to devote 4u to the project, and just let it ride until I reach a profit of 10u or until it burns.

[MMA_scientist]

You can throw it in here, poopoo will just move it up to post #1 for you.

I tried that back in 2010... and it actually wen't well for a while, but it all came tumbling down one night when I used the bankroll to chase some losses and made some stupid bets. It was after that failed straight bets locks parlay that I started doing the submission props locks parlays.

Good luck, the hard part is making the last few bets in the series, where you are throwing down 10u on a single bet. That's why I took down my bankroll from 2011 locks parlay, I am just playing with the white meat now. I suspect when I get to the end of this year, it is going to be very hard to drop "$4000 to win $67" or something... but I will do it. Then I will probably take it down a little and start with $2000 or so for 2013.

[poopoo333]

Sweet, another 2012 parlay. This is fun.

If I can turn my $400 into $1400 by the end of the year I will be extremely happy...I will cash out the $1,000 and keep the $400 and start over.

[Ludo]

You can throw it in here, poopoo will just move it up to post #1 for you.

I tried that back in 2010... and it actually wen't well for a while, but it all came tumbling down one night when I used the bankroll to chase some losses and made some stupid bets. It was after that failed straight bets locks parlay that I started doing the submission props locks parlays.

Good luck, the hard part is making the last few bets in the series, where you are throwing down 10u on a single bet. That's why I took down my bankroll from 2011 locks parlay, I am just playing with the white meat now. I suspect when I get to the end of this year, it is going to be very hard to drop "$4000 to win $67" or something... but I will do it. Then I will probably take it down a little and start with $2000 or so for 2013.

Thanks. What inspired Me here was actually Svino's contest coupled with the fact that favorites in general have been winning more often than not. Since the contrst started I've hit 11 straight favorites of -300 or worse in the 6 events. Obviously the non vigged lines skew things slightly, but the fact of the matter is if I'd been doing this since the start of the year I'd already be up a considerable amount.

Jake Ellenberger -300
Stipe Miocic -317
Dustin Poirier -376
Charles Oliviera -376
Chael Sonnen -400
Mike Easton -300
Mike Pyle - 376
Rousimar Palhares -426
Luke Rockhold -426
Mo Lawal -426
Tarec Saffeidein -300

Starting from the bottom up(in the order they occured) if I had been doing this the whole time I'd be up over 58u on non vigged lines. Probably somewhere closer to 50u on vigged lines.

I thought about the nervousness to put everything down on one line. Thats why I put a cap of 10u profit before I start back over from 4u, that way it's harder to wipe out entirely in the event of a crash.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I toyed with the idea of splitting the bankroll into 2 or 3 units just so I have a safety net and don't wipe it all out... in fact, that is probably what i will do soon if I can manage to stay a live a few more months. I know that eventually, something shocking is going to happen and someone is going to sub someone they should not. I do feel like I have a good insight into this limited submission area, but flukes happen. So I really do need to figure out a way that factors in a safety net of some kind. The problem with betting -2000 lines is that you have to win like 20 of them in a row to make any real money... so just stacking it up and then taking it down repeatedly is not really an option, like it is with -300 or -400 parlays. If you win 10 of those in a row and you have made a lot of money.

I am still "testing" it out, so that is why the bankroll is what amounts to about 9u for me. I am thinking of making it actual part of my long term strategy though- and in order to do that, I have to factor in the inevitable losses with a saftey net of some kind.

[poopoo333]

I also think a very important part of this strategy is to not force any bets and not to worry about getting a bet for this on every single card.

[Ludo]

Yeah, I toyed with the idea of splitting the bankroll into 2 or 3 units just so I have a safety net and don't wipe it all out... in fact, that is probably what i will do soon if I can manage to stay a live a few more months. I know that eventually, something shocking is going to happen and someone is going to sub someone they should not. I do feel like I have a good insight into this limited submission area, but flukes happen. So I really do need to figure out a way that factors in a safety net of some kind. The problem with betting -2000 lines is that you have to win like 20 of them in a row to make any real money... so just stacking it up and then taking it down repeatedly is not really an option, like it is with -300 or -400 parlays. If you win 10 of those in a row and you have made a lot of money.

I am still "testing" it out, so that is why the bankroll is what amounts to about 9u for me. I am thinking of making it actual part of my long term strategy though- and in order to do that, I have to factor in the inevitable losses with a saftey net of some kind.

Yeah, I only started the year with like a 15u roll since I took a hit last year. But I've come up about 6u since the start of the year and I'm tired of the crazy swings I've been experiencing since last summer. I'll go up 2-4u in a single event, then lose almost that much or more in the following one-to-three events and hovering near even. I think there is money to be made here with the right strategy. Instead of nickel and dime bullshit maybe I can make some solid profit through this, or it'll crash and burn before it gets off the ground and I'll go back to trying to scratch and claw.

[Ludo]

I also think a very important part of this strategy is to not force any bets and not to worry about getting a bet for this on every single card.

Discipline is going to be key. Reserving it for true lock type fighters is going to be important here.

[Ludo]

So we're off. The first play is:

4u to win 1.333u on Ronda Rousey -375 for the March 3rd event.

[SPX]

Interesting that you consider Rousey to be a "true lock." I have also placed a bet on her, but I don't consider her victory a foregone conclusion.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't bet the women, but Rousey only loses if she gasses (which she might, being as she has only fought 30 second fights).

[Ludo]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I am going to be betting Rousey for sure.

[MMA_scientist]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

yeah, i don't think she does anything better. But cardio makes cowards of men. But at -375, she is probably good to go. There are a lot of unanswered questions about her, but because the women's talent pool is so shallow, Rousey's other experience is even more relevant. Also female judo > female wrestling. Worldwide participation in female judo has got to be 50x that of female wrestling. Rousey is a tough grappler with better takedowns and she has the arms of a man. She is probably going to take her down and submit her.

[SPX]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

Coenen was supposed to have better submissions too, but we saw how that worked out. Who could've predicted Tate would ever sub Coenen?

Like I said, I already have dropped a bet on Rousey, so I obviously think she's going to win. But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round. I mean, fuck, maybe it's the lock of the century but with the amount of data we have to work with I just don't think that conclusion can be reached responsibly.

[Ludo]

Coenen was supposed to have better submissions too, but we saw how that worked out. Who could've predicted Tate would ever sub Coenen?

Like I said, I already have dropped a bet on Rousey, so I obviously think she's going to win. But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round. I mean, fuck, maybe it's the lock of the century but with the amount of data we have to work with I just don't think that conclusion can be reached responsibly.

Coenen wasn't known as an ultra talented grappler, just a submission artist. Her main base is striking. It's kind of like Mir and Minotauro. Mir isn't the better overall grappler, probably not even the better MMA grappler, but he is an astounding submission artist to the point that he can make up ground in skill gaps just by his talent for latching onto and finishing subs.

Rousey is a whole other animal. With a base in offensive grappling and elite level grappling at that. We're talking about the difference between someone with a long torso who pulls subs out of their ass and an olympic medalist who has dedicated their life to grappling.

[SPX]

I guess the point I'm trying to make that's not coming across is that I feel like before you can make a decision about how much of a lock a fight is I think you just have to have a certain minimum set of facts.

[Ludo]

So we're off. The first play is:

4u to win 1.333u on Ronda Rousey -375 for the March 3rd event.

I shouldn't have done the tallying up right before I posted this. It's 4u to win 1.143u on Rousey -350, not -375.

[Ludo]

I guess the point I'm trying to make that's not coming across is that I feel like before you can make a decision about how much of a lock a fight is I think you just have to have a certain minimum set of facts.

I agree that most times that is the case. But we have seen what happens when Tate can't get the takedown. Given Rousey's raw core strength and balance mixed with world class takedowns of her own I just don't see Tate being successful in getting this fight where she needs to get it to win(which is on the ground with her on top of Ronda).

[Svino]

But to act like this fight is a "true lock" in the sense that GSP/Hardy, Couture/Toney or Reem/Rogers was just doesn't make sense to me if only for the fact that we haven't even seen Rousey out of the first round.

Well, you can't really expect to get a "true lock" at +350.

Speaking of that, I've been going back and collecting some fight data from the last couple years. I'll let you know if I come up with anything interesting, and I'm still in the middle of it.

But one result at a glance: UFC fighters from -400 to -599 seem very solid. But damn... I'm gonna stay away from guys steeper than -600. They look like the worst bet of any probability class. So far this year, they're 2-1. Last year, they went 5-3. I think it's gonna get even worse as I go back further, since there's still Gracie and Penn to go.

[poopoo333]

Who has been -600 or worse in the UFC this year?

[SPX]

Speaking of that, I've been going back and collecting some fight data from the last couple years. I'll let you know if I come up with anything interesting, and I'm still in the middle of it.

But one result at a glance: UFC fighters from -400 to -599 seem very solid. But damn... I'm gonna stay away from guys steeper than -600. They look like the worst bet of any probability class. So far this year, they're 2-1. Last year, they went 5-3. I think it's gonna get even worse as I go back further, since there's still Gracie and Penn to go.

That IS very interesting. I wonder what is up with that.

BTW, what fights are you referring to?

[Ludo]

I think I'll definitely be putting the parlay on Brian Stann over Alessio Sakara if it's still alive by then. I don't see how Stann loses that fight. Same with Vitor over Wanderlei, again assuming this shit is still going by then.

[SPX]

I agree that Stann should walk away with that shit, but his line sucks. Sakara was actually on a nice little run before the Weidman fight, though I don't think any of the guys he beat were anywhere near as good of strikers as Stann.

And Vitor's going to smash Wanderlei. I'll be very surprised if that fight gets out of the 1st round.

[poopoo333]

Fights I am real confident in for the future:

Kongo over Hunt
Jones over Rashad
Tom Lawlor over Jason MacDonald
Vitor over Wanderlei


Don't consider them "locks" but I don't see those guys losing

[SPX]

I'm with you on Vitor.

[Ludo]

Fights I am real confident in for the future:

Kongo over Hunt
Jones over Rashad
Tom Lawlor over Jason MacDonald
Vitor over Wanderlei


Don't consider them "locks" but I don't see those guys losing

I'm going to pretty much stay away from heavyweight fights on this shit, too many variables with guys that big. Jones/Rashad has too much going on with the bad blood to be sure about. We've heard shit from both sides about Evans schooling Jones in sparring and vice versa. Lawlor doesn't really fit the bill of the guys McDonald typically loses to, but McDonald is pretty old now, so I guess he could probably get fucked up all around like Belcher did to him. My only concern would be Lawlor's conditioning issues(which cost Me money against Aaron Simpson).

[Ludo]

I'm with you on Vitor.

Time has been much kinder to Vitor since they last met. He knows how to find the chin about as well as anyone in the division and Wanderlei's has deteriorated in a big way. If it lasts more than 3 minutes I'll be surprised.

[poopoo333]

I actually think Jones is a no brainer over Rashad. Jones blows Phil Davis' MMA wrestling out of the water imo, and actually knows how to use his reach. I doubt Rashad is going to be able to outwrestle/stuff/outstrike Jones. His only chance is a big punch imo.

I don't think MacDonald has anything in him anymore, it is more of a fade on him

[SPX]

Time has been much kinder to Vitor since they last met. He knows how to find the chin about as well as anyone in the division and Wanderlei's has deteriorated in a big way. If it lasts more than 3 minutes I'll be surprised.

Honestly, a truly accurate line for Vitor is probably more like -900. I mean, does Wanderlei beat him more than once in 10 fights? I really doubt it.

[poopoo333]

How much do you have on Vitor X?

[SPX]

I actually think Jones is a no brainer over Rashad. Jones blows Phil Davis' MMA wrestling out of the water imo, and actually knows how to use his reach. I doubt Rashad is going to be able to outwrestle/stuff/outstrike Jones. His only chance is a big punch imo.

At +400, I'll take Rashad.



I don't think MacDonald has anything in him anymore, it is more of a fade on him

Well he did beat Jensen at least and Lawlor has proven to have questionable sub defense, but yeah, I expect J-Mac to lose.

[SPX]

How much do you have on Vitor X?

I dropped 4u on him at -250.

[Ludo]

Honestly, a truly accurate line for Vitor is probably more like -900. I mean, does Wanderlei beat him more than once in 10 fights? I really doubt it.

This is My thinking as well. Wanderlei isn't knocking him out, or submitting him(not even Arona could do that in ADCC), and in all likelihood he gets blasted out early as soon as Vitor decides to stop standing around.

[poopoo333]

I would bet Vitor if the fight wasn't so far away. It's weird how sportsbook has been holding a -270 line when everywhere else the line is in the mid -300s

[SPX]

I would bet Vitor if the fight wasn't so far away. It's weird how sportsbook has been holding a -270 line when everywhere else the line is in the mid -300s

I've gotten a lot of good deals with Sportsbook. It doesn't seem like anyone on here other than myself has an account with them and I've never understood why not.

[poopoo333]

I've gotten a lot of good deals with Sportsbook. It doesn't seem like anyone on here other than myself has an account with them and I've never understood why not.

If I do, I will let you know. Give me a refer a friend code and maybe we can both get bonuses

[Luke]

It doesn't seem like anyone on here other than myself has an account with them and I've never understood why not.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/sportsbook.com/


^^^^this

[Svino]

Who has been -600 or worse in the UFC this year?

This year, we had Oliveira (-625) over Wisely, Palhares (-600) over Massenzio, and the loser... Erick Silva (-600) vs. Prater. Admittedly, Silva dominated every minute of that fight, but it's a gambling loss.

Last year, the losers were Bader (-625) vs. Ortiz, Hominick (-625) vs. K-Zombie, and Guillard (-615) vs. Lauzon.

[SPX]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/sportsbook.com/


^^^^this


I've heard about all that, but I know the guy who hooked me up with them has never had any problems. It just takes a while to get a payout (like 6 weeks).

We'll see if I have any issues when I finally try to pull my money.

[Svino]

I've heard about all that, but I know the guy who hooked me up with them has never had any problems. It just takes a while to get a payout (like 6 weeks).

Damn. 6 weeks is a long time.

[Ludo]

This year, we had Oliveira (-625) over Wisely, Palhares (-600) over Massenzio, and the loser... Erick Silva (-600) vs. Prater. Admittedly, Silva dominated every minute of that fight, but it's a gambling loss.

Last year, the losers were Bader (-625) vs. Ortiz, Hominick (-625) vs. K-Zombie, and Guillard (-615) vs. Lauzon.

Don't forget Tim Sylvia who was like -1100 over Abe Wagner. I'm actually surprised that we didn't get better lines on some of those considering Machida was only like -350 over Couture.

[MMA_scientist]

svino are you looking at closing lines only? Because Silva was only like -400 for most of the time I think. Rolles was -400 too, not -600. I be Guillard against Lauzon, and I think I had him around -350 o4 maybe -450. No way I would have bet him at -600... Those must be the last minute lines at Bodog or something.

[SPX]

Damn. 6 weeks is a long time.

I agree. I have considered trying to pull my money and deposit it elsewhere, but like I said, you do good some pretty good lines from them here and there.

[MMA_scientist]

6 weeks, thats some bullshit. When I have requested payouts from BM and 5d, I have my money with 24 hours, usually less.

[SPX]

6 weeks, thats some bullshit. When I have requested payouts from BM and 5d, I have my money with 24 hours, usually less.

Bookmaker is maybe the only book open to US players that really does MMA that I've never heard a single bad story about. If I was smart, I'd probably just deposit everything at BM and say fuck everyone else. I've heard bad shit about 5d, Bodog, Sportsbook and BetUS, for sure. Never heard anything bad about The Greek, but they don't seem to be a good book for MMA.

[Svino]

svino are you looking at closing lines only? Because Silva was only like -400 for most of the time I think. Rolles was -400 too, not -600. I be Guillard against Lauzon, and I think I had him around -350 o4 maybe -450. No way I would have bet him at -600... Those must be the last minute lines at Bodog or something.

Correct. I am looking at closing lines which are often more lopsided on heavy favorites. I was also only looking at UFC cards, which is why I don't have Sylvia / Wagner. The closing line I actually have for Gracie was -1010 on BookMaker.

[MMA_scientist]

I only quit BM because the feds came after them. BM is the most reliable book from all accounts. They have always paid me. I have never had any trouble with 5d paying out, but I have had some problems with them dropping my limits and what not. I am a small time player, I think they would be shit if I was actually making big bets.

[MMA_scientist]

Damn I should have arbed out of that Rolles bet... that fight still makes me sick, I still feel like I did everything right. I just didn't know that Beltran was like the world's toughest man and that Rolles had the worst gas tank/heart of any fighter ever.

[SPX]

I only quit BM because the feds came after them. BM is the most reliable book from all accounts. They have always paid me. I have never had any trouble with 5d paying out, but I have had some problems with them dropping my limits and what not. I am a small time player, I think they would be shit if I was actually making big bets.

Yeah, that's the kind of stuff I've heard about 5d. And lots of stories about "Tony," whoever the fuck he is.

[poopoo333]

Sat 2/25

1127 Bader wins by submission

+2160





11:59PM

1128 Any other result

-6480





Sat 2/25

1129 Bader wins by TKO/KO

+625





11:59PM

1130 Any other result

-1275





Sat 2/25

1131 Jackson wins by submission

+1475





11:59PM

1132 Any other result

-4275





Sat 2/25

1133 Jackson wins by TKO/KO

+190





11:59PM

1134 Any other result

-270

[poopoo333]

Sat 2/25

1035 Henderson wins by submission

+740





11:59PM

1036 Any other result

-1570





Sat 2/25

1037 Henderson wins by TKO/KO

+620





11:59PM

1038 Any other result

-1260





Sat 2/25

1039 Edgar wins by submission

+1440





11:59PM

1040 Any other result

-3960





Sat 2/25

1041 Edgar wins by TKO/KO

+930





11:59PM

1042 Any other result

-1890

[Vandelay]

Thats just as bad as the Lara-Williams decision

[Luke]

Thats just as bad as the Lara-Williams decision

Worse

[Vandelay]

meant to put this in the boxing thread.

[Luke]

Guessed that. Should I give you your negging now or wait for another time and double neg then?

[Vandelay]

nows fine.

[poopoo333]

Not Ben Henderson by sub -1405

I do not think that is a lock, but it is magic parlay material.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, that is probably good. Not a "lock" but pretty close to one. Frankie only been in one catch that I ever recall- in his first fight in the UFC Tyson Griffin had him in a knee bar. Since then, I don't think he has ever been locked up.

[poopoo333]

Bader by sub is -8500, I don't even know if that's worth it for the 2012 parlay..unless it is parlayed with something.

[MMA_scientist]

Would rather do "not rampage" it is a lot cheaper and probably about as likely. Rampage rarely attempts submissions, if he puts Bader in a bad position, he is probably just going to wail on him rather than try to slap on a RNC.

[Ludo]

Depending on the line(I'm sure it's horrendous) Not Frankie by Sub is probably more of a lock, Bendo is pretty much un submittable at this point.

[MMA_scientist]

The line is a littleworse on that one. -2330 for "Not Edgar by sub" vs. -1881 for "Not Edgar by sub"

Neither one is going to happen, but they are not "locks" IMO. Both guys have solid grappling and Bendo has a tight guillotine. Definitely not going to bet either one in the 2012 parlay, but I will do whichever is cheaper for the magic parlay.

[edman5555]

I would do not Edgar by sub. Bendo is turning out to be a good grappler

[MMA_scientist]

Edgar is solid too though, and he doesnt take as many risks. Pettis had bendo's back a bunch. Bendo is good, but he does not have a tight game... he is a scrambler.

[Ludo]

Yeah but if Jim Miller and Mark Bocek and Donald Cerrone and Clay Guida couldn't finish the job, I don't see how Frankie does even if he gets a clear shot.

[SPX]

Without a serious flukey occurance, like Edgar rocking Bendo and latching onto an RNC, I really can't see him getting a sub.

[poopoo333]

Full props outt, lez do dis

[poopoo333]

I like not hunt,boetsch, bader by sub parlay. Maybe add akiyama in too

[MMA_scientist]

The lines are all really steep. Not Edgar/Jackson/Hunt/Akiyama/Boetch by sub is -600... that's too much for me. I might wait and see if adding "Not Bart by sub" gets me under my -500 threshhold.

I am considering "Not Akiyama by sub" and/or "not Boetch by sub" for the 2012 parlay. Okami has never been subbed, but Boetch apparently has a tight guillotine, as he has gotten 3 guys with it. Akiyama has subbed a bunch of guys, but no one good... and since he has subbed like 4 people with an ezekiel choke, I have to assume those people were either terrible or the fights were fixed (a no-gi ezekiel is pretty damn difficult to pull off, even against someone letting you put it on). Well the onlys guy with a wiki are Shibata, a pro wrestler with a 4-10 record (including "win" over Minowa, and a "losses" to Sakurai, Sakuraba, Akiyama)... and some guy named Ishizawa, who is also a pro wrestler and is 1-5 in MMA. It could maybe happen, but I kind of doubt it

What say you for 2012 parlay? Shields, Okami, or both?

[Ludo]

The lines are all really steep. Not Edgar/Jackson/Hunt/Akiyama/Boetch by sub is -600... that's too much for me. I might wait and see if adding "Not Bart by sub" gets me under my -500 threshhold.

I am considering "Not Akiyama by sub" and/or "not Boetch by sub" for the 2012 parlay. Okami has never been subbed, but Boetch apparently has a tight guillotine, as he has gotten 3 guys with it. Akiyama has subbed a bunch of guys, but no one good... and since he has subbed like 4 people with an ezekiel choke, I have to assume those people were either terrible or the fights were fixed (a no-gi ezekiel is pretty damn difficult to pull off, even against someone letting you put it on). Well the only guy with a wiki is Shibata, a pro wrestler with a 4-10 record (including "win" over Minowa, and a "losses" to Sakurai, Sakuraba, Akiyama)... It could maybe happen, but I kind of doubt it.

What say you for 2012 parlay? Shields, Okami, or both?

I'm doubting Akiyama subs shields especially if this goes into the 2nd and third rounds. This is Akiyama's first weight cut ever to 170lbs and he's never fought anyone so dedicated to the takedown before. Shields is going to keep going after the takedown until he's certain he can't get it, and then he'll try two or three times more.

[poopoo333]

$516.11 to win $55.36 on Not Bader/Hunt/Akiyama/Boetsch by sub

Done.

[MMA_scientist]

Where are you betting this? I wasn't able to get those lines even with an additional bet in there.

[poopoo333]

Where are you betting this? I wasn't able to get those lines even with an additional bet in there.

5 dimes

[poopoo333]

Risk
To Win

Status
Wager


110294629-1
2/23/12 2:14pm
$516.11
$55.36

Pending
4 Team Parlay







Pending
2/25/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1128 Any other result -7900* vs Bader wins by submission







Pending
2/25/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1228 Any other result -2630* vs Hunt wins by submission







Pending
2/25/12 11:30pm Props Fighting 1328 Any other result -4925* vs Akiyama wins by submission







Pending
2/25/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1432 Any other result -3085* vs Boetsch wins by submission

[MMA_scientist]

I was doing the math wrong. I was thinking you were getting -500, but it is actually -932. Just got confused. I think I am going to do Shields and Okami both. Really don't see either guy getting subbed. I might cheat a little and only do half the bankroll.

[MMA_scientist]

Hunt is not going to sub Kongo either.

[poopoo333]

I'm going to be so happy if I can get this to $1400. Apart of me will want to keep going though, and another part would want to cash out a grand

[poopoo333]

Assuming I do not crash and burn this weekend, the next bet for this parlay will be "Not Alves by submission"

[MMA_scientist]

Don't puss out. You will be pretty lucky if y ou can get it to $1400.... That is 350% ROI. My original goal was to get 100% on mine, just double it over a year.

I have been more aggressive here in the last few events... so if we can keep the pace up that we have now, 25% so far, we are going to double our money 4.16 times in 2012. You should be at about $1600 by year's end based on these two months. If you keep it going into 2013, you will be $6666 by years end.

[MMA_scientist]

6 more months and you would be maxing out at 5d on prop bets... so you would have to be content to play for $1000 on each bet.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, this bet for this event is kind of risky since it's a parlay..but I am trying to be more aggressive as well since it is less money. I wish I was doing this last year, when "Not Cerrone by sub" was -395 against Diaz

[poopoo333]

6 more months and you would be maxing out at 5d on prop bets... so you would have to be content to play for $1000 on each bet.

How is $1,000 max bet when you started @ $1,500?

[MMA_scientist]

Don't worry, bargains will come along. The only thing that bothers me is that I know I am going to get wiped out at some point and for now, I am just rolling the dice hoping to build up a stack a year at a time. Eventually, I want to have several parlay units. So if I get wiped out, I just pick right up there again.

[poopoo333]

Bored in class so I am looking for upcoming UFC/Strikeforce cards and potential parlay bets:

Not Alves or Kampmann by sub -UFC on FX 2
Not Marunde, Daley, Noons by sub -Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey ...the only "lock" there should be Marunde
Not Stann or Sakara by sub-UFC on Fuel TV 2 ...Probably won't even touch this though
Not Che Mills/Rashad Evans by sub-UFC 145
Not Koscheck/Belcher by sub-UFC on Fox 3
Not Igor Pokrajac by sub-UFC on Fuel 3
Not Barboza by sub-UFC 146
Not Vitor Belfort/Wanderlei Silva by sub-UFC 147


That is until June. Any disagreements? Additions?

[MMA_scientist]

$1000 is the max win on a prop bet (or so I have been told). I bet $1500, but only win $100 or so.

[poopoo333]

$1000 is the max win on a prop bet (or so I have been told). I bet $1500, but only win $100 or so.

Can't you just place the bet twice?

[MMA_scientist]

I don't know, never tried to win that much on a prop bet. From what I heard about 5d, and this may all be bullshit, they will not let you play if you start taking that much money from them. We'll see.

[Luke]

I don't know, never tried to win that much on a prop bet. From what I heard about 5d, and this may all be bullshit, they will not let you play if you start taking that much money from them. We'll see.

Define "that much money."

[MMA_scientist]

^^$1000 every week or two... is what it would be in that scenario. Just from what I have read about 5D, they aren't going to allow that. But people lie on the internet some times I think, so who knows.

[Vandelay]

I believe Hioki and Shields qualify for the lock section. Also like Not boetsch and Edgar.

So i have not bart, akiyama, boetsch, and edgar involved in my original 15 man, $500 rolling parlay. So if these hit, I'll have only 2 spots left to complete the parlay.

Started another $500 parlay with 20 spots. 6 of them filled with not Akiyama, edgar, hunt, boetsch, bart, and bader by sub.

[MMA_scientist]

Fuck it. I am doing it.

"$1872 to win $187 on "Not Akiyama to sub Shields/Not Boetch to sub Okami/Not Bart to sub Hioki"

Worried about Hioki, but his line is pretty soft.

[MMA_scientist]

Started another $500 parlay with 20 spots. 6 of them filled with not Akiyama, edgar, hunt, boetsch, bart, and bader by sub.


What's the pay out on your original $500 so far?

[Vandelay]

465 so far if these next 4 hit with the last 2 still open.

[edman5555]

I'm not involved in this but I'll offer one small thing. Don't push it if you don't think it's right..Sometimes it sounds like you guys are hitting dry spells and taking greater chances than normal. I am not trying to be judgemental and I could be wrong.

[MMA_scientist]

I am definitely pressing it right now. I am being way more aggressive than I should be... but the power of compounding works a lot more in the later stages... so since it is still early I am trying to get there faster, definitely a risky game to be playing though. I feel pretty good about Not Boetch and Not Akiyama... by all accounts Hioki is pretty great, but Bart can grapple too, and I really haven't seen much of Hioki, so that is really more of a gamble in my mind- it is not really based on my own observations as much as reputation- that's not how I do this thing, so it was probably a bad decision. Hopefully, it works out.

[Vandelay]

Eh, bart hasnt subbed any1 of note ever. His only way of winning by sub will be to rock hioki and rnc him. Hioki doesnt really shoot at all. He is more of a judo guy who looks for trips and throws from clinch. Hioki is equally competent on top or from his back.

Honestly, im most confident in Hioki not getting subbed. Shields always leaves his neck out and was almost rnc by miller. So its not like he is immune to getting subbed. Akiyama isn't much of a sub guy and will probably look to keep it standing though. Don't know enough about boetsch or Okami. I could see Okami getting subbed althought highly unlikely.

[poopoo333]

I think the most likely to get a sub is Boetsch.

[MMA_scientist]

Okami has never been subbed. From my perspective, Okami is a really good grappler. He really kind of beat Maia in ADCC. Munoz was unable to take him down, and he was able to hit TD's on Munoz. Boetch is not going to submit him, and even if he could, he is not going to be able to get Okami down. Okami is solid on the mat, he won't get subbed.

Shields won't get subbed unless he gasses out, which he does do at 170. I think he knew time was expiring against Miller so he let his guard down (I may be recalling that wrong though). Akiyama has never really subbed anyone decent, and it would be a shock to see him submit Shields IMO.

Hioki probably ain't getting subbed either, so it is a moot point. But I was just stating that i typically make these bets off of my own observations, and I really haven't seen Hioki fight much.

[poopoo333]

Fuck it. I am doing it. "$1872 to win $187 on "Not Akiyama to sub Shields/Not Boetch to sub Okami/Not Bart to sub Hioki" Worried about Hioki, but his line is pretty soft.

OP updated....


We will be fine this weekend ::handshake::

[edman5555]

I agree with everything said and yeah it was the Hioki bet that prompted me to say something. I guess that puts us on the same page.

[Luke]

^^$1000 every week or two... is what it would be in that scenario. Just from what I have read about 5D, they aren't going to allow that. But people lie on the internet some times I think, so who knows.

Think it would take a lot more than that but I could be wrong.

[MMA_scientist]

I certainly hope so. I just remember reading some guy's post that he got shut down after $30K... Probably bullshit anyway. I have never heard it from a legit source. But i would be happy if I could take $300 per week regularly. That's a solid take from my perspective and I wouldn't feel the need to keep pressing my bankroll if I could take that much.

[Luke]

Oh, you meant 30k total. I believe that then .

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I meant if I was hauling in $1000 per week over an extended period of time, say 6 months or so...

[Luke]

yeah, I meant if I was hauling in $1000 per week over an extended period of time, say 6 months or so...

I agree then.I've heard 30-50k total and they'll shut you down to 1 dollar limits.

[poopoo333]

updated

[Ludo]

updated

Thanks for adding Mine in there, home slice.

[edman5555]

I wonder if the shut downs are sport specific. I could see if you are betting a fringe sport they could have trouble balancing the line. I wonder if mma would qualify for that.

[Luke]

I wonder if the shut downs are sport specific. I could see if you are betting a fringe sport they could have trouble balancing the line. I wonder if mma would qualify for that.

I'd guess MMA would get you shut down faster than most other sports because only 2% of money wagered is on MMA.

[edman5555]

Is that a recent statistic? It could make a difference what MMA fights you are wagering on as well. Title fights/big name fights probably get a lot more action so it would be harder for one guy to tilt the line.

[Luke]

Is that a recent statistic? It could make a difference what MMA fights you are wagering on as well. Title fights/big name fights probably get a lot more action so it would be harder for one guy to tilt the line.

Yes. Only 2% of money wagered on sports is MMA. That is why MMA has 500 dollar limits and NFL has 50,000

[Vandelay]

Yes. Only 2% of money wagered on sports is MMA. That is why MMA has 500 dollar limits and NFL has 50,000

mma has more than a 500 dollar limit. I know reduced odds has a 500 limit on 5d, but normal betting is higher than that. especially for main card bouts.

[poopoo333]

I think Luke was generalizing. On bookmaker it gets up to $5k-$10k on main card fights on fight day

[poopoo333]

Sat 3/3

1027 Kampmann wins by submission

+1280





10:30PM

1028 Any other result

-2920





Sat 3/3

1029 Kampmann wins by TKO/KO

+1280





10:30PM

1030 Any other result

-2920





Sat 3/3

1031 Alves wins by submission

+927





10:30PM

1032 Any other result

-1880





Sat 3/3

1033 Alves wins by TKO/KO

+640





10:30PM

1034 Any other result

-1320

[poopoo333]

I like Not Alves by sub

[MMA_scientist]

Kampmann has never been subbed. Alves did just finish his first submission ever in his last fight though... maybe he is planning on using his bjj more now that he has brain damage. Kampmann is a good grappler though, and he has been in there with some solid submission specialists (Leites, Condit, Volkmann, Thiago, Shields). At -1880, that is kind of a steal IMO.

That is definitely off. I don't know why Not Kampmann by sub is worse than Not Alves, when Kampmann has submitted 6 guys, and Alves has only submitted one. Also, Kampmann has never been subbed, and Alves has been subbed several times. Line is upside down. I am going to bet it, maybe not for the whole stack though... since I think Alves is probably going to blast Kampmann standing. This is just the kind of fight where he might drop him and jump on the back.

[MMA_scientist]

I want to wait for the "Not Urishanti by submission" line for a parlay, but I know that -1880 is not going to hold.

[poopoo333]

I think Kampmann probably beats Alves, I don't see Alves subbing him at all. I think the UFC hype train made Alves into some sort of Muay Thai killer guy....in fact..I think Kampmann is the better striker. His only problem is his defense up against the cage/getting into brawls...you would think he has figured it out by now.

I just don't see Alves subbing Kampmann. Gonna bet this for sure

[MMA_scientist]

If you are going to bet it... bet it. Because I am getting ready to blow that line up.

[poopoo333]

My account is a little short at the moment, I have money tied up,gotta wait till tomorrow to reload a little bit. go ahead

[MMA_scientist]

I dropped $700 on it. The line has not moved. I am going to save the rest for the Benavidez bet. They have distance props on a bunch of fights, maybe will get submission props on some of the others. I could piece together a magic parlay if they offer props on 4 or 5 fights.

[poopoo333]

$571.47 @-1880...what's the profit on that?

[MMA_scientist]

well, let's see...

571.47 divided by 18.80 = 30.39

I don't see how you could be betting this long and still not know how to figure this shit out. You're asian for god's sake. At least SPX has dumb ass cracker as an excuse

[poopoo333]

Banned


but thanks

[Vandelay]

I want to wait for the "Not Urishanti by submission" line for a parlay, but I know that -1880 is not going to hold.

Shoulda done a rolling parlay...

[SPX]

well, let's see...

571.47 divided by 18.80 = 30.39

I don't see how you could be betting this long and still not know how to figure this shit out. You're asian for god's sake. At least SPX has dumb ass cracker as an excuse

BOL

Well thanks.

[MMA_scientist]

I didn't get home in time to get the Not Urishanti bet.

Update with this

700 to win 37.23 on Not Alves to sub Kampmann

[poopoo333]

Updated. Good think you didn't do not kampmann by sub

[MMA_scientist]

I would not have bet that. So no worry there. I am just pissed that I didn't get to put the full bankroll into play. We had seminar at the gym tonight and I just got home. I got promoted (not really, I got a couple pieces of tape on my belt).

[edman5555]

lol

[poopoo333]

OP updated for you Ludo, who's the next one in Ludo's locks?

[Ludo]

OP updated for you Ludo, who's the next one in Ludo's locks?

Thanks, breh breh. Next is Brian Stann over Alessio Sakara.

5.143u to win 1.371u on Stann -375

[MMA_scientist]

Anything? Maybe "Not Mills by sub." But it is -8300, pretty damn steep

[Ludo]

Could you add the Stann one to My tally, Jordan? It already hit, the next one for it is 6.514u to win 1.861 on Vitor Belfort over Wanderlei Silva.

[poopoo333]

Done

[MMA_scientist]

I just unloaded what was left of my account on "Not Koscheck by submission" at -1050. That is a real value IMO. Hendricks is a good grappler, Kosckeck can only submit him him he dazes him first, takes his back and RNC's him. Pretty much teh same way anyone could ever be submitted by anyone.

[MMA_scientist]

Rounded out my play @ -1700

So the bet is

$500 @ -1050 to win 47.61

$1596 @ -1700 to win 93.88

[Vandelay]

now you cant bet the gift that is not belcher by sub at -2100

[MMA_scientist]

Truth. That line wasn't out yet when I made my play.

[MMA_scientist]

Poopoo, are you not making any plays? Hendricks like got blown up. The "Not belcher" line is worse, -5100 or so...

[poopoo333]

Poopoo, are you not making any plays? Hendricks like got blown up. The "Not belcher" line is worse, -5100 or so...

I don't have the $ in my account. That shit basically got wiped out, and my bookmaker account is the one that is always winning.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't have the $ in my account. That shit basically got wiped out, and my bookmaker account is the one that is always winning.

poopoo, it is supposed to be a separate bankroll, making it impossible to wipe out. Discipline- you have none. DFG.