UFC 141 Betting Results

[Mr. IWS]

UFC 141 Betting Results

Ludo 1-0 +1.1
W .5u to win 1.1u on Diaz



poopoo333 5-7 +6.46
W 3u to win 8.4u on Nate Diaz
L 3u to win 3.45u on Brock Lesnar
W 1.55u to win 1u DHK/Pierson over 1.5 rds
L 0.75u to win 1.76u on Manny Gamburyan
W 1.05u to win 1u Hettes/Phan goes to decision
L 0.25u to win 1.5u on Alexander Gustafsson by sub
W 0.5u to win 1.02u on Johnny Hendricks
L 0.5u to win 8.6u on Nate Diaz (T)KO
L 0.5u to win 0.88u on Brock Lesnar (T)KO
L 0.5u to win 4.79u on Brock Lesnar by sub
W 1u to win 1.04u Alistair Overeem by (T)KO
L 0.5u to win 2.4u reem/brock starts round 4



MMA_scientist 2-2 -.41
L Lesnar 2u to win 2.4u
W Diaz .5u to win 1.12u
W Hendricks .5u to win .97u
L Gustaffson by submission: .5u to win 2.99u



Thewisemann 7-6 +2.14
L Lesnar 1u to win 1.15u
L Lesnar dec .1u to win 1.5u
W Reem/Lesnar under 1.5 rds .8u to win .5u
W Pearson/Kim over 1.5 rds .87u to win .5u
L Gamburyan .5u to win 1.25u
W Diaz 1u to win 2.1u
W Hendricks .5 to win 1u
L Castillo sub 1u to win 3.47u
L Lesnar 1u to win 1.3u
W Diaz .5u to win 1.24u
L Lesnar sub .2u to win 1.91u
L Lesnar split/maj dec .05u to win 3.41u
W diaz/cerrone goes the distance 1.15u to win 1u



AC88 1-0 +1
W Gustaf. 3u to win 1u.


Luke 2-1 +2.42
L Cerrone -265 5 to win 1.89
W Reem -130 5 to win 3.85
W 5 to win 3.57 on Reem -140



mike 3-1 +3.92
W Hendricks 2u to win 3.8u
L Cerrone 2u to win .8u
W Kim/Pierson over 1.5rounds 2u to win 1.2u
W Phan/Hettes over 8.5mins 2u to win .92u



Mr. IWS 1-0 +1
W Reem 1.4 unit to win 1



High5 3-4 -5.46
L Lesnar 8u to win 10.76u
W Overeem 2u to win 4.4u in first round
L Cerrone 4.5u to win 2u
L Fitch 4.6u to win 2u
W R Pearson 10u to win 4u
W Volkman 4u to win 2u
L Gamburyan .76 to win 2u
W castillo 3.6u to win 2u



Svino 5-3 +12.3
L Lesnar 4u to win 5.2u
W Diaz 2u to win 4.7u
W Hendricks 2u to win 4.7u
L Gamburyan 1u to win 2.2u
L Overeem wins KOotN, 1u to win 2.5u
W Hettes by decision, 1u to win 3.3u
W Hettes vs. Phan goes the distance, 1u to win 1.1u
W No award for SotN, 0.5u to win 4.5u



Vandelay 3-5 -6.84
L 7.05 to win 3 Phan
W 1 to win 2.2 Hendricks
W 3.225 to win 1.5 Volkman
L .52 to win .5 Not gustaf itd
W 1.275 to win .75 castillo
L 1 to win 1.6 cerrone by 3 rd dec
L .25 to win 1.0625 hendricks by 3 rd dec
L went another 2.47 to win 1.5 on phan



edman5555 5-7 -1.75
L Brock 2u to win 2.6u
L Brock sub .25u to win 2.5u
L Pierson 2u to win 6.6u
L Phan 4.35u to win 2.5u
W Volkmann 2.1u to win 1u
W Castillo 3u to win 1.8u
L adding matyushenko 1u to win 3u
W added hendricks 1.5u to win 3.1u
W adding hendricks .25u to win 1.5u
L added lesnar 1u to win 1.3u.
L added lesnar tko 1u to win 2u
W added nate diaz 1u to win 2.45u



Parlays


Ludo 0-2 -2
L 1u to win 1.3u Parlay on Fitch/Gustafsson/Hyun Kim
L 1u to win 1.036u Parlay on Castillo/Cerrone



poopoo333 1-0 +8.85
W 5u to win 8.85u on Alexander Gustafsson/Ross Pearson/Not Hendricks by sub/Not Cerrone by sub/Overeem vs Brock doesn't start round 4


MMA_scientist 2-0 +2.54
W 6u to win 2.04u "Not Cerrone/Hendricks/Gusstaffson by sub"
W Not Hendricks/Cerrone/Pearson/Njkouni by sub 1.11u to win .5u


Thewisemann 1-2 +1.85
W Gust, Pearson, Castillo, Kim,Volkmann .5u to win 1.89u
L .01u to win 33.28u
L Same as about minus Phan, Riddle, kim/Pearson over and Gamburyan .03u to win 8.91u


mike 0-1 -.2
L Reem, Cerrone, Hendricks, Gustafsson, Phan, Pearson, Castillo, Pierson, Volkman, Nunes .2u to win 38u lulz


High5 1-0 +3.76
W Gustafsson/R Pearson/ Volkmann 2.8u to win 3.76u


Vandelay 2-0 +4.7
W 3.95 to win 1.66 not overeem, hendricks, cerrone by sub
W 4 to win 3.04 fedor, not overeem by 5 rd dec, hendricks, cerrone, njkouani by sub and hettes by tko/ko

[Vandelay]

My parlays = +4.7, Normal bets = -6.84


Also PP's parlay was plus 8.85

[MMA_scientist]

Svino 6-2 +15.8
L Lesnar 4u to win 5.2u
W Diaz 2u to win 4.7u
W Hendricks 2u to win 4.7u
L Gamburyan 1u to win 2.2u
W Overeem wins KOotN, 1u to win 2.5u
W Hettes by decision, 1u to win 3.3u
W Hettes vs. Phan goes the distance, 1u to win 1.1u
W No award for SotN, 0.5u to win 4.5u

Damn. Very nice haul. Well done on 2011, solid year.

Overeem KOofn was a loss though right? F'n Zak just piling on- the rich get richer...

[MMA_scientist]

Edman, I am interested in your thoughts on that incredible and unsustainable ROI we talked about earlier this year. You didn't make much progress over the last half of the year, I remember you were up like 100u in august. Still, unbelievable year, congrats.

[Svino]

Damn. Very nice haul. Well done on 2011, solid year.

Overeem KOofn was a loss though right? F'n Zak just piling on- the rich get richer...

Thanks, but yeah, Overeem got the TKO but not KOotN. So that should be a total of +12.3u.

I took a look over my spreadsheet for the last year, to check it over for success/failure patterns and such. I saw that the real lesson for me can be summarized like this: I made about 5.9k last year betting MMA. Of that, 4.2k was exclusively due to live-betting the decision prop. I'm going to try to hit that even harder this year until the money train dries up.

[poopoo333]

Also PP's parlay was plus 8.85

Thanks for mentioning that

+15u every event would be nice.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to have to get on board with this live betting thing. I really didn't pour over my successes and failures in 2011 like I did in 2010. I just know that I never made an oversized bet, and I never chased once... which is my crowning acheivement for the year.

[poopoo333]

Thanks, but yeah, Overeem got the TKO but not KOotN. So that should be a total of +12.3u.

I took a look over my spreadsheet for the last year, to check it over for success/failure patterns and such. I saw that the real lesson for me can be summarized like this: I made about 5.9k last year betting MMA. Of that, 4.2k was exclusively due to live-betting the decision prop. I'm going to try to hit that even harder this year until the money train dries up.

Curious...what's your unit size? $100? Just wondering if I can make even 1k this year with $40 units now. And how much did you end up putting on that decision prop with Jacare/Rockhold that night? I remember you making a lot from it.

[poopoo333]

Also for edman:

L added hendricks 1.5u to win 3.1u
L adding hendricks .25u to win 1.5u

Hendricks won

[Svino]

Curious...what's your unit size? $100? Just wondering if I can make even 1k this year with $40 units now. And how much did you end up putting on that decision prop with Jacare/Rockhold that night? I remember you making a lot from it.

I set my unit size to about 1% of my bankroll, so I'm happy to say it varied greatly over the course of the year. Right now, after UFC 141, I consider $90 one unit.

I actually did not make that much on Jacare/Rockhold, only about $400. But in the course of kicking myself for not max-betting it, it helped me realize that going all-in when I can catch a live-bet line that's obviously bad is the way to go.

[poopoo333]

But in the course of kicking myself for not max-betting it, it helped me realize that going all-in when I can catch a live-bet line that's obviously bad is the way to go.

Did you ever do this? Actually go all in on a live bet? What bad lines do you recall hitting like that?

[Svino]

Did you ever do this? Actually go all in on a live bet? What bad lines do you recall hitting like that?

Well, by "all-in" I mean up to the max allowed. Which is usually a bet of $1000 (for favorites) or a bet to win $1000 (for underdogs). The only times I've literally won 1k on a prop, I have also ended up hedged it with other bets. I am going to try to hedge a little less this year. Henderson/Rua at +500, Melendez/Masvidal at +200, Mousasi/OSP at +200, Watson/Jabouin at +300, were all decision props I hit hard. There were some annoying failures too: I was max-bet on Cro-Cop/Nelson to go the distance at +300, for example.

[poopoo333]

Oh wow, I need to get back on the live betting bandwagon.

[trotterz]

Which website allows live betting?
I don't think I can do it with sportbet

[Svino]

Which website allows live betting?
I don't think I can do it with sportbet

Everything I've done live has been with BookMaker.

[MMA_scientist]

Speaking of not hedging so much, I need to do that too. I need to get my balls back. I hedge everything and just chip away because I hate the volatility of winning a lot and losing a lot.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to create a chart of the 2011 tracker. It will probably take me a few days, but I think it will be interesting.

[edman5555]

Edman, I am interested in your thoughts on that incredible and unsustainable ROI we talked about earlier this year. You didn't make much progress over the last half of the year, I remember you were up like 100u in august. Still, unbelievable year, congrats.

Thanks. I didn't put as much effort into in the second half of the year. I had more going on I guess. I was also drinking a lot. I have really got to give up alcohol. I was putting a massive amount of effort into this for the first half of the year. Multiple hours every single day breaking down fights. I don't know if you noticed but I haven't been posting as much lately. I tried to keep betting + not putting the same amount of work in. All in all I still did ok I guess. I am upping it to 100 dollar units this year. We'll see what happens.

[Mr. IWS]

fixed?

[Mr. IWS]

Ill fix Vandys later. I figured out where I fucked those up.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to create a chart of the 2011 tracker. It will probably take me a few days, but I think it will be interesting.

I created a month by month volatility chart for my bets in 2011. Anyone else want to be added to the chart? I can probably add one person per day, took me about 30 mins.

[MMA_scientist]

The red is me, the gray is an average line.

39

[MMA_scientist]

Shit, that is small. Also, i made a mistake in the graph on the left...

[poopoo333]

I do.

[mike]

Well, by "all-in" I mean up to the max allowed. Which is usually a bet of $1000 (for favorites) or a bet to win $1000 (for underdogs). The only times I've literally won 1k on a prop, I have also ended up hedged it with other bets. I am going to try to hedge a little less this year. Henderson/Rua at +500, Melendez/Masvidal at +200, Mousasi/OSP at +200, Watson/Jabouin at +300, were all decision props I hit hard. There were some annoying failures too: I was max-bet on Cro-Cop/Nelson to go the distance at +300, for example.
when u say decision prop, does that mean u pick the fight to go to a decision without picking a winner? or do you pick "henderson by dec", for example?

[Svino]

when u say decision prop, does that mean u pick the fight to go to a decision without picking a winner? or do you pick "henderson by dec", for example?

I meant simply betting that the fight will go the distance. Of course, there are often good lines on picking the specific outcome as well.

[mike]

ah i see.