Event #1 for contest: Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Jardine

[Svino]

This is the first out of ten events for the "Pick the right side of the line" contest.

I think we have seven participants: Me, Ludo, Poopoo, High5, Scientist, Trotterz, and Mike, but I haven't received full payment / confirmation from everyone yet.

Once again, should anyone want to make picks just for the fun of it, feel free to post them here, since I think it's just interesting to see what people think about the lines. I'll track them, but they obviously won't count for the contest if you aren't a paid participant.

You can copy the text below and highlight the fighter you want to pick, or you can just make a list of names. Pick as many or as few as you like. The fighters and their odds for this event are:

Luke Rockhold (-426, 81%) vs. Keith Jardine (+426, 19%)

Robbie Lawler (-163 62%) vs. Adian Amagov (+163, 38%)

Mo Lawal (-426, 81%) vs. Lorenz Larkin(+426, 19%)

Tarec Saffiedine (-300, 75%) vs. Tyler Stinson (+300, 25%)

James Terry (-150, 60%) vs. Nah-Shon Burrell (+150, 40%)

Gian Villante (-127, 56%) vs. Trevor Smith (+127, 44%)

Jordan Mein (-285, 74%) vs. Tyron Woodley (+285, 26%)

Chris Spang (-223, 69%) vs. Ricky Legere (+223, 31%)

[poopoo333]

Can you explain the rules/how you do good/etc again?

[Svino]

Can you explain the rules/how you do good/etc again?

For every fight that you bet, you will be risking the implied winning percentage of the guy you pick to win the implied winning percentage of his opponent. Example, given the line:

Luke Rockhold (-426, 81%) vs. Keith Jardine (+426, 19%)

If you pick Rockhold, you are risking 0.81 to win 0.19.
If you pick Jardine, you are risking 0.19 to win 0.81.

The lines are adjusted to remove BookMaker's vig, so as to encourage betting. I include the moneyline numbers as well because people are used to seeing odds that way.

Basically, the tournament is designed so that the best way to do well in the long run is to pick the right side of the line for as many fights as possible. (Although granted there could be some strategic voting at the end between top placers.)

Here you can download a copy of the Excel spreadsheet I use:
http://www.mediafire.com/?um7723iwqi7m9k7

You enter 1's in the "wager" column to represent the fighters someone bets on, and 1's in the "result" column to represent the winner of the fight. The spreadsheet should total the result in the pink box at the bottom.

[MMA_scientist]

You have the Woodley/Mein line flipflopped. I will send the money today.


Jardine
Saffidiene

[poopoo333]

Rockhold
King Mo
Mein
Saffiediene
Amagov

[MMA_scientist]

Mo

[mike]

Mo
Stinson
Terry
Villante

[Svino]

You have the Woodley/Mein line flipflopped. I will send the money today.

Crap, you're right. Sorry about that, everyone.

As you say, the line should be:

Tyron Woodley (-285, 74%) vs. Jordan Mein (+285, 26%)

[SPX]

Chris, you have sent $20.00 USD to Aaron Doe.

[MMA_scientist]

Svino doesn't want his super secret ID known, just FYI for courtesy.

[SPX]

How's that?

[sbjj]

I just set up a Paypal account(I know, I live in the stone age). How long does it usually take before you can tranfer in and out from your bank?

[MMA_scientist]

I can't remember since I had mine since like 2001 when I first went on ebay. Anyway, I am sure no one will care if you play prior to getting your money in. You're good for it.

[SPX]

Usually you have to go through a confirmation process where they transfer a small amount into your account (like a .01 deposit and a .03 deposit or something along those lines) and you have to confirm the amount.

After that, you should be able to send/receive money instantly. But if you want to withdraw back to your bank account it takes a few days.

[Svino]

Keith Jardine (+426, 19%)
Robbie Lawler (-163 62%)
Mo Lawal (-426, 81%)
Tarec Saffiedine (-300, 75%)
Nah-Shon Burrell (+150, 40%)
Gian Villante (-127, 56%)
Jordan Mein (+285, 26%)
Chris Spang (-223, 69%)

[ctm0808]

Can I join? I can transfer the money (20?) and post picks tonight.

As long as this isn't like wisemann's $50 contest that I bought into, which just kind of disappeared after 2 or 3 events.. what happened with that anyways wisemann?

[Ludo]

Keith Jardine (+426, 19%)
Adian Amagov (+163, 38%)
Mo Lawal (-426, 81%)
Tarec Saffiedine (-300, 75%)
Tyron Woodley (-285, 74%)

[mike]

Mo
Stinson
Terry
Villante
and Mein

[ctm0808]

Alright!

Jardine
Lawler
King Mo
Mein
Saffiedine
Terry

[trotterz]

Saffiedine
Woodley

[High5]

Robbie Lawler (-163 62%)
Tarec Saffiedine (-300, 75%)
Nah-Shon Burrell (+150, 40%)
Jordan Mein

[Svino]

OK, so far I've got money from everyone who's expressed any interest except for sbjj (and I told him that if he was having trouble with Paypal, it would be OK if it came later). I've got picks from everyone except for RedHott, SPX, and sbjj. Just a reminder, the prelims start at 8:00 PM eastern, so try and get your picks in by then. If you're only picking main card fights, submitting between 8:00 and 10:00 is OK, though.

[RedHottG2]

Tyron Woodley (-285, 74%)
Luke Rockhold (-426, 81%)
Tarec Saffiedine (-300, 75%)
Robbie Lawler (-163 62%)
Mo Lawal (-426, 81%)
Trevor Smith (+127, 44%)
Nah-Shon Burrell (+150, 40%)

[SPX]

Rockhold
Lawler
Mo
Tarec

[Luke]

GSP -350

[Svino]

Looks like we have 10 people. i.e. $200 in prize money.

How do people feel about: $140 for first place, $40 for runner up, $20 for third?

I am suggesting not a winner-take-all because that way people who fall behind will still have something more attainable to play for. (Important since, by design, the format doesn't really allow you throw "Hail Marys" if you get behind.)

[SPX]

Sounds okay to me.

[Ludo]

I like that too.

[ctm0808]

Third'd, sounds good.

[RedHottG2]

works

[Svino]

OK, who didn't see this coming? Congratulations to RedHottG2 for having the highest event #1 total! I'm sure he will continue to kick our asses in the coming weeks.

The total results from SF: Rockhold vs. Jardine:

RedHottG2 1.43
SPX 1.01
High5 0.97
Svino 0.72
trotterz 0.51
MMA_scientist 0.25
Ludo 0.13
poopoo -0.01
ctmm0808 -0.23
mike -0.48

[Luke]

LOLZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SPX]

I think Redhott's been playing us. I bet he's been researching like a motherfucker.

[poopoo333]

I knew this would happen.

[Mr. IWS]

LOL Redhott is sharp as fuck. I knew that dude was playing you guys. He has a blackbelt in UFC so you know.

[mike]

oh fuck...

[RedHottG2]

I just remembered to come look at the results of this, what a surprise it was to see this!! How long does the contest last ? not sure if it was ever said or if I asked.. Does the next round start this weekend or what ? I don't know when these fights take place.

[SPX]

Now that you mention it, not sure if we ever discussed how many events this thing runs.

But yeah, there should be something every weekend between now and whenever we close it out.

[Ludo]

I remember Svino saying 10 events. All UFC and Strikeforce

[mike]

I remember Svino saying 10 events. All UFC and Strikeforce

yep