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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

main event ALABAMA

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* Bowl Game of the Year (10-3 all-time BCS champ games!)
My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Alabama at 8:30 ET.

These teams met back on November 5 and both were 8-0 SU and a combined 13-3 ATS. The three non-covers came up short by a total of just 8 1/2 points, in games which the teams were favored by a combined 123 1/2 points! The defensive numbers for both teams were quite remarkable. The Tide ranked No. 1 in points allowed (6.9 PPG), total yards (180.5 YPG) and in rushing yards allowed (44.9 YPG / 1.7 YPC). LSU ranked third in points allowed (11.5) and rushing yards allowed (76.6 / 2.5) plus 4th in total yards allowed (251.4). Note the difference in total yards allowed was fairly significant, considering the low totals, as LSU had allowed 70.9 YPG more than Alabama, prior to that game. I took Alabama in that game, saying "not only is Alabama at home (25-1 SU since 2008) but it owns the slightly better D, the better O, the better head coach and the best player on the field in Richardson. Lay the points." As all know, LSU won that game 9-6 in OT but Alabama outplayed LSU. The Tide failed to convert on numerous opportunities early, missed four FGs in all and there was that HUGE play when the LSU defensive back wrerstled that 'jump ball' away from the Alabama receiver at the goal line. However, I'm not 'crying over spilled milk,' as LSU won fair and square. That being said, I'm "all over" the Tide in this rematch. I'm not much of a fan of rematches but it's hard to against the fact that these were CFB's two best teams this regular season. I heard some talk about some AP voters considering Oklahoma St for No. 1 if LSU were to lose here but I can't imagine there would be too many of them. The Tigers deserve their No. 1 ranking. They ended up averaging 38.5 PPG (12th in the FBS) on offense and have a "special" defense. I'm not sold at all on LSU's QB situation, although Jefferson is the better option than Lee. Since replacing Lee in that game vs Alabama on Nov 5 (Lee threw two bad 'picks!'), Jefferson has completed 60.3% with four TDs and just one INT (in 73 attempts). He's run for 137 yards (one TD) and generally been an excellent leader. I do like the steady improvement of the LSU running game, which enters the game averaging 215.2 YPG on 5.0 YPC with 35 TDs. Ford, Ware, Blue and now even freshman Hilliard, are all equally likely to be an impact performer in any SINGLE game. While some argued the Oklahoma St Cowboys deserved this trip to the Superdome, I just don't get it and the fact that Alabama is the only team NOT to lose to LSU by at least 13 points. this year, makes it "case closed." LSU outscored 12 opponents (not named Alabama) 491-131 or 40-9-to-10.9 PPG. Let me remind all once again, that it's hard to argue against the fact that Alabama looked like the better team in that first meeting. The Tide's defense ranked first in the nation allowing 191.3 YPG or 60.8 less than LSU's. Alabama allowed just 8.8 PPG to LSU's 10.5, so it's hard NOT to conclude that the Alabama 'D' isn't the better unit. While QB McCarron is not my favorite (66.7% / 16-5 ratio), he's still got more natural passing ability than Jefferson. Then there is Trent Richardson (1,583 yards / 6.0 YPC / 20 TDs), who accounted for 169 (89 rushing / 80 receiving) of Alabama's total of 295 yards in that first game. However, he hardly stood out and clearly was NOT a "difference-maker." After falling short of winning the Heisman, it's hard NOT to think a wonderful 'consolation prize' would be a "big-time" effort in this game while leading his team to a win. I was fairly convinced that Alabama was the better team prior to the first meeting and really saw nothing in that game to change my mind. I will acknowledge that I'm MORE impressed with LSU now than before the first game but I'm sticking with my original "handicap" that Alabama is the better team and that LSU won't beat the Tide a second straight time. After a L-O-N-G wait, I get to find out if I'm right on Monday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

My 100 Dime Championship Major Money Move selection is on the LSU Tigers over Alabama. The current line on this game is +2 in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

I lean with Alabama slightly and with the under in tonight's game.

It's been a good bowl season, as all Best Bets, Strong Opinions and leans are a combined 27-14-2. I was 4-2 on my Bowl Best Bets for +1.3 Stars but it's pretty fair to say that I should be 6-0, or at the very least 5-1 given how unlikely the endings were in my two losses. I am 5-7 on my Bowl Strong Opinions (4-5 sides, 1-2 totals) and my Bowl leans are 18-5-2 (6-4-2 on sides and 12-1 on totals).

I know it's been an overall frustrating season, but it's tough to make a profit when my Best Bets were -21 in fumble margin in the regular season. In fact, it's actually an accomplishment to be a game over .500 on my Best Bets this season (and profitable on my futures bets again) with the -21 in fumbles, which is by far the worst season of fumble variance I've ever had. I feel my handicapping this season was actually better than my 57% long term average in college, but there are some seasons when my record is worse than it should be and some years when my record is better than it should be. This was a season of huge negative variance and it's unlikely that next season will be as unlucky - so I hope you'll keep the faith and be back for what is likely to be a very profitable 2012 College season.

Alabama Futures Bet
Those that signed up before the season started showed a profit in my futures bets (+6.1 Stars so far) and I have 1.5 Stars at +450 odds to win the BCS Championship game. I have decided not to hedge that bet, as I lean slightly with Alabama in this game and I believe that hedging is only worthwhile if the hedge is a bet that has a positive return on investment, which I don't think is the case in this game. If you are risk averse there is certainly nothing wrong with hedging your bet by playing LSU in this game but that's not what I'm doing. I'm Rolling with the Tide.


Opinion
Alabama (-2.0) 20 LSU 17
BCS Championship Bowl
09-Jan-2012 5:30PM Pacific
Some people didn’t think that Alabama deserved to be in this game given that the Crimson Tide didn’t even win their own conference, but there is no doubt that these are the best two teams in the nation and the fact that Bama is favored is certainly a strong indication that they deserve to be here. Alabama lost the regular season meeting 6-9 in overtime despite out-playing the Tigers from the line of scrimmage and I think they’ll get their revenge in this game despite the fact that LSU is a better team now than they were back in early November.

Alabama’s offense put up impressive numbers this season, averaging 6.6 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Tide were 1.5 yppl better than average with quarterback A.J. McCarron under center. McCarron had a very efficient season throwing the football, as he averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing only 5 interceptions the entire season. McCarron was also just as good, on a relative basis, against better defensive teams as he was overall and the 6.2 yppp he averaged against LSU is actually the 2nd highest average that LSU allowed all season (West Virginia averaged 7.1 yppp against the Tigers). Alabama’s rushing attack, led by Trent Richardson (1583 yards at 6.0 ypr with 20 TD runs) and Eddie Lacy (631 yards at 7.5 ypr), averaged 6.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team. However, the Tide rolled up huge rushing numbers in two games against horrible run defenses (367 yards at 13.1 yprp against North Texas and 409 yards at 10.8 yprp against Ole’ Miss), which skewed their average. In 6 games against teams with a better than average run defense (Kent State, Penn State, Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Miss State) Alabama was just 0.8 yprp better than average (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp) and their median offense run rating was +0.7 yprp. So, Alabama’s rushing attack actually isn’t nearly as good as their season rating of +1.5 yprp and the Tide ran for just 3.5 yprp at home against LSU. Alabama was 1.5 yards per play better than average for the season with McCarron under center, but I rate the Crimson Tide attack at 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for their two off the charts rushing games against bad defensive teams that skewed their season average.

LSU’s defense finished 2nd to Alabama’s defense in my ratings, as the Tigers yielded just 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of 1A teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. LSU faced 4 very good offensive teams and the Tigers were just as effective defensively against those good offensive teams – holding Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama, and Arkansas to 5.1 yppl, which is 1.8 yppl better than those 4 teams would combine to average against an normal defensive team. My math model projects 312 yards at 4.9 yppl for Alabama in this game.

LSU’s offense started the season with Jarrett Lee at the controls due to the suspension of starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson and Lee did a very good job in the passing game while the Tigers were mediocre running the ball. The rushing attack emerged once Jefferson started getting time at quarterback midway through the season and LSU has averaged 256 yards running at 6.3 yards per rushing play over the last 7 games with Jefferson running some option and young backs Blue and Hilliard (combined for 859 yards at 6.4 ypr) taking carries away from Spencer Ware, who averaged just 4.0 ypr this season. LSU was 0.9 yard per rushing play better than average for the season but they’ve been 1.6 yprp better than average with Jefferson at quarterback. Jefferson’s passing hasn’t been as good as Lee’s passing numbers, but Jefferson has still been good in averaging 6.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 1 interception on 93 pass plays. LSU’s offense was 0.9 yards per play better than average for the season but I rate the Tigers at 1.3 yppl better than average offensively heading into this game. LSU did play relatively worse against very good defensive teams this season, as the Tigers averaged only 4.4 yppl against Oregon, 4.1 yppl against Alabama and 5.1 yppl in the SEC Championship game against Georgia.

Alabama’s defense is the best unit in the nation, as the Tide allowed just 3.2 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Bama didn’t allow more than 4.6 yppl and 14 points to any Division 1A team all season but they did give up 21 points and 7.4 yppl to Division 1AA Georgia Southern and their triple option attack. A lot has been made of that game and the fact that LSU is equipped to run some option offense in this game, but the option that Georgia Southern runs is much different from the simple option that LSU will run and Alabama held LSU to 3.8 yard per rushing play and 4.1 yppl with Jordan Jefferson running some option in the first game. I do expect the option to help LSU run for a better average than they ran for the first time these teams played, but they’re unlikely to have great success with it, especially given the extra time that Alabama has had to prepare for it (they didn’t have much time to prepare for Georgia Southern and probably didn’t put much effort into that game, which was right in the middle of the SEC schedule). Alabama played two games against elite offensive teams and they allowed just 3.8 yppl to Arkansas and only 4.1 yppl to LSU while actually rating better in those two games (relative to how good those offenses are) than they did overall. My math projects 247 yards at 4.5 yppl for LSU in this game, which is better than the 4.1 yppl that they averaged in the first game.

Alabama out-gained LSU 295 yards at 4.9 yppl to 239 yards at 4.1 yppl in the first meeting but missed 4 field goals (although the misses were all from 44 yards or longer) and lost in overtime. Special teams could play a role in this game too, as LSU is among the best teams in my overall special teams ratings while Alabama is better than average but not great in special teams. My math model liked Alabama the first time these teams played and the Crimson Tide out-played LSU in that game. However, the math favors LSU this time around because of the Tigers’ offensive improvement since that first game. In fact, the math favors LSU by 2 points in this game despite the 312 yards to 247 yards projection in favor of Alabama (special teams and turnovers make up for the yardage deficiency). However, LSU applies to a negative 30-75 ATS bowl situation and that angle is 0-2 ATS for teams in the BCS Championship game. In this case I’ll side with the strong situation and I’ll lean slightly with Alabama at -2 ½ points or less. I will also lean under 40 points or higher.

[Mr. IWS]

Lang's Free Pick is LSU/Alabama OVER the posted total.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott spreitezer

alabama