1-22-12

[poopoo333]

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Big Al

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points over New England.* Last week, we played on both of these teams, and cashed with the Patriots, but lost by a half-point with the Ravens.* We're going to come right back with Baltimore, as NFL underdogs of +3 or more points are a super 104-60 ATS since 1980 off a pointspread loss as a 7-point (or greater) favorite, if they're matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 9-1 ATS if they're on the road in a Playoff game!* Earlier this week, Tom Brady pronounced Baltimore as the best team New England will have faced this season.* And he's absolutely right, as the Pats played a schedule which consisted mostly of "patsies" (pun intended).* Unfortunately for the Patriots, from Game 3 forward, their only three games vs. .700 (or better) teams all resulted in losses (both SU and ATS)!* They fell 25-17 to the Steelers at Heinz Field on October 30; 24-20 at home the following week to the Giants; and lost in late September to Buffalo at Rich Stadium.* In contrast, Baltimore was 2-0 SU and ATS against such quality teams, with wins over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field on November 6, and at home vs. San Francisco on Thanksgiving.* This is a classic match-up between offense and defense (Baltimore ranks 3rd in defense (both ypg and points, while New England averages 32.8 ppg).* With Playoff teams an awful 2-11 ATS since 1980 as favorites of -10 points or less off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they scored more than 31 points, we'll grab the points with the defensive underdog here.* Take the Ravens.* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.


At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the NY Giants + SF 49ers to go 'under' the total, as it falls into an NFL Playoff System of mine that's 28-14 ATS since 1980.* Rain showers are expected for the weekend, and that could help put a lid on the scoring, as the grass field at Candlestick will be slippery and muddy.* The quarterbacks would have a much more difficult time completing long passes, and might have to focus on shorter routes.* But even if, somehow, the weather forecasters are wrong, and the field remains in good condition, I still like this game to go well 'under' the total.* The 49ers played especially great defense at home, and if you ignore their last game against the pass-happy Saints, as well as their final regular season game (in which many of their defensive players rested), then one finds that their previous five home games averaged 31 ppg, and four of five went 'under' the total.* These two teams did play once earlier this season, and the Niners won 27-20, but that game was also 13-12 early in the 4th quarter and, but for a barrage of late scores, would have gone 'under' the total.* Granted, both of these teams were involved in games last weekend that had a "barrage of late scores" to send them 'over' the total, but on a field that will be likely sloppy, I don't see that occurring this Sunday.* Also, the Giants' defense is healthier now than it was in mid-November, and San Francisco's Frank Gore injured his knee early in that game, which forced the Niners to abandon the run, somewhat.* On Sunday, I expect both Tom Coughlin and Jim Harbaugh will want to have balance on offense.* Unfortunately, each will have to confront a fantastic defense.* The Niners are extremely difficult to beat on the ground (witness New Orleans' 37 yards rushing), while the Giants possess the league's best defensive line, with guys like Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul.* Between the expected difficult playing conditions, and the tough defenses, I like this game to go 'under' the number.* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.


At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the NY Giants.* Last week, we had our biggest NFL play in 3 years -- on the SF 49ers -- and we were rewarded with a 36-32 victory over the favored Saints.* I would have played against the Niners in Lambeau, but they caught a break when the Giants upset the #1-seeded Packers, and they now get this NFC Championship game at home in Candlestick.* The Giants rolled up 37 points last week on the Packers, but road teams only cover the spread 33% of the time in the Playoffs after scoring 35 or more points.* Additionally, in the Conference Championship round, road dogs are money-burners, and especially when getting less than 4 points (2-9 ATS since 1980).* Finally, single-digit road underdogs off big upset wins in the Playoffs (as dog of more than 6 point) have covered the spread only 28% of the time, including 0-for-7 if their win percentage was less than .645!* These two teams met earlier this year when the Giants were also red-hot.* They had just upset the New England Patriots 24-20, and were on a 6-1 hot streak.* Yet San Francisco was favored by 4 points and covered in a 27-20 triumph.* Now, at the same venue, the 49ers are favored by less than a field goal, so the line value, in my opinion, rests squarely with the Niners.* San Francisco is 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 home games!* I won't buck those numbers.* Take San Francisco!* Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[poopoo333]

Brandon Lang


100 Dime Play

Giants +2


50 Dime Play

Patriots -7 (If -7.5 Buy down to -7)


30 Dime Parlay

Giants +2 / Patriots -7

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root Parlay of the Decade 1/22/12
Ravens
49ers

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOCKEY TOTALS WINNER!

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins 'under' the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's NBA HAMMER GAME OF THE MONTH! *29-19 Run! - Sunday

I'm laying the points with the Lakers on Sunday evening

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' *10* (EARLY) NCAA BLUE CHIP TOTAL! (4-0/100% L4 O/Us!)

I'm playing on Wisconsin and Illinois to finish UNDER the total

Ben Burns' *10 HIGH NOON NCAA B-L-O-W-O-U-T! (7-2 L9 Hoops) *9AM PT*

I'm playing on INDIANA.