Event #7 for contest: UFC 144

[Svino]

This is the seventh out of ten events for the "Pick the right side of the line" contest.

The adjusted betting lines for UFC 144 are:

Frank Edgar (-113, 53%) vs. Ben Henderson (+113, 47%)

Quinton Jackson (-213, 68%) vs. Ryan Bader (+213, 32%)

Anthony Pettis (-223, 69%) vs. Joe Lauzon (+223, 31%)

Cheik Kongo (-257, 72%) vs. Mark Hunt (+257, 28%)

Jake Shields (-257, 72%) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+257, 28%)

Yushin Okami (-285, 74%) vs. Tim Boetsch (+285, 26%)

Hatsu Hioki (-150, 60%) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+150, 40%)

Takanori Gomi (-178, 64%) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+178, 36%)

Takeya Mizugaki (-186, 65%) vs. Chris Cariaso (+186, 35%)

Norifumi Yamamoto (-270, 73%) vs. Vaughan Lee (+270, 27%)

Riki Fukuda (-257, 72%) vs. Steve Cantwell (+257, 28%)

Tiequan Zhang (-213, 68%) vs. Issei Tamura (+213, 32%)


The tournament standings to date are:

RedHottG2 5.47
mike 5.42
Ludo 5.36
High5 4.48
SPX 4.04
trotterz 3.76
ctm0808 1.66
MMA_scientist -0.80
poopoo -1.90
Svino -3.82

[Ludo]

Ben Henderson (+113, 47%)
Quinton Jackson (-213, 68%)
Anthony Pettis (-223, 69%)
Cheik Kongo (-257, 72%)
Jake Shields (-257, 72%)
Yushin Okami (-285, 74%)
Hatsu Hioki (-150, 60%)
Takanori Gomi (-178, 64%)

[poopoo333]

Frank Edgar (-113, 53%)

Quinton Jackson (-213, 68%)

Joe Lauzon (+223, 31%)

Cheik Kongo (-257, 72%)

Yoshihiro Akiyama (+257, 28%)

Tim Boetsch (+285, 26%)

Bart Palaszewski (+150, 40%)

Takanori Gomi (-178, 64%)

Takeya Mizugaki (-186, 65%)
Vaughan Lee (+270, 27%)
Steve Cantwell (+257, 28%)

Issei Tamura (+213, 32%)

[ctm0808]

Frank Edgar
Quinton Jackson
Anthony Pettis
Mark Hunt
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Yushin Okami
Takanori Gomi

[MMA_scientist]

Edgar
Jackson
Pettis
Kongo
Okami
Shields

[RedHottG2]

Ben Henderson (+113, 47%)
Takeya Mizugaki (-186, 65%)
Yushin Okami (-285, 74%)
Jake Shields (-257, 72%)
Hatsu Hioki (-150, 60%)
Anthony Pettis (-223, 69%)
Ryan Bader (+213, 32%)
Steve Cantwell (+257, 28%)
Eiji Mitsuoka (+178, 36%)
Mark Hunt (+257, 28%)
Vaughan Lee (+270, 27%)
Issei Tamura (+213, 32%)

[mike]

Frank Edgar (-113, 53%)
Quinton Jackson (-213, 68%)
Anthony Pettis (-223, 69%)
Cheik Kongo (-257, 72%)
Yushin Okami (-285, 74%)
Takeya Mizugaki (-186, 65%)
Norifumi Yamamoto (-270, 73%)
Issei Tamura (+213, 32%)

[SPX]

Edgar
Rampage
Pettis
Hunt
Shields
Okami
Bartimus
Cantwell

[High5]

Ben Henderson
Ryan Bader
Anthony Pettis
Jake Shields
Yushin Okami
Hatsu Hioki
Eiji Mitsuoka
Takeya Mizugaki
Vaughan Lee

[Svino]

Frank Edgar
Quinton Jackson
Joe Lauzon
Mark Hunt
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Tim Boetsch
Bart Palaszewski
Eiji Mitsuoka
Chris Cariaso
Vaughan Lee
Riki Fukuda
Tiequan Zhang

[trotterz]

Edgar
Bader
Pettis
Shields
Okami
Cantwell

[Svino]

Well, we sure showed that RedHott guy who is boss this week. Here are the scores for event #7:

RedHottG2 2.30
High5 1.18
Svino -0.12
Ludo -0.26
trotterz -0.28
ctm0808 -0.84
SPX -1.32
poopoo -1.34
MMA_scientist -2.08
mike -3.06

Congrats to RedHott and to High5 for being the only ones to return with positive scores.

Obviously, this spreads things out a bit, but there are still three events to go! The scores to date are:

RedHottG2 7.77
High5 5.66
Ludo 5.10
trotterz 3.48
SPX 2.72
mike 2.36
ctm0808 0.82
MMA_scientist -2.88
poopoo -3.24
Svino -3.94

[RedHottG2]

One thing is for sure, if I have one bad event it will tighten this up alot. I went into this with a goal of just finishing in the top three so as long as I do that I'll be happy. I figured some big dogs would hit this time and they did. I look for High5 and Ludo to give me a run at the end.

[SPX]

So RedHott, how are you making your bets? You claim you don't watch the sport and you won't convince me you're just picking names out of hat, so. . .?

[RedHottG2]

So RedHott, how are you making your bets? You claim you don't watch the sport and you won't convince me you're just picking names out of hat, so. . .?
Well the same way I pick my sports bets.. As far as this goes I start looking at what the line is doing about a 2-3 days before the event. I make all my plays based on line movement alone, that along with seeing what the opener was. I track steam moves and just go from there. The only plays I ever make based on my own knowledge is Baylor and Kansas because they are the only two teams I actually follow. I really know nothing about any of the other teams I play.. I have been in a funk lately but that happens so I am taking a break. I'll get back to winning on a daily basis again soon.

[mike]

man this is a horrible night for me both in the contest and the real betting.. i dont know how Ã*m gonna dig out of this hole. it is too horrific, it's funny LOL

[SPX]

Some great fights . . . but shitty for betting. What really sucks is that I went into this event thinking it was going to be one of those that's pretty easy money.

[Luke]

Y'all are STILL getting beat by the basketball guy?

[MMA_scientist]

Well, he just trades the trend appatently. Redhott, does that work over extended periods of time?

[Luke]

Redhott, does that work over extended periods of time?

First place after 7 events

[RedHottG2]

Well, he just trades the trend appatently. Redhott, does that work over extended periods of time?
In sports betting (I don't know about MMA) it works for 3-4 months. Then it seems to fall off, that's like now and when I take a small break. However I daily write my bets down on paper just like I would have bet them unit amount and all and track. I am about to jump back in the game because the last three days would have been profitable. If all continues after four more days I will start wagering and posting again. I will only continue when I know the time is right, strict discipline and money management is key to winning in the season.

[RedHottG2]

Actually I'm back in for tomorrow small KANSAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RedHottG2]

For you guys that sit back and only bet MMA go ahead and make a small wager on Kansas. I am in no way guaranteeing a cover here but just trying to throw you guys a bone on some action. ::handshake::

[Svino]

In sports betting (I don't know about MMA) it works for 3-4 months. Then it seems to fall off, that's like now and when I take a small break. However I daily write my bets down on paper just like I would have bet them unit amount and all and track. I am about to jump back in the game because the last three days would have been profitable. If all continues after four more days I will start wagering and posting again. I will only continue when I know the time is right, strict discipline and money management is key to winning in the season.

If you have a steam-chasing strategy that works over the long run, wouldn't it be best to just stick with it and ride out the booms and the slumps? Do you really think the performance of the strategy in a given week correlates better with its performance in the next week than the long-term average would?


Also, it looks like the Sherdog Fantasy players took a serious bath this event, too. http://www.sherdog.com/blog/Sherdog-MMA-PickEm-UFC-144-Final-Report-40633

[Luke]

Also, it looks like the Sherdog Fantasy players took a serious bath this event, too. http://www.sherdog.com/blog/Sherdog-MMA-PickEm-UFC-144-Final-Report-40633

A bunch of dogs won. Most people take favs ,for the most part, so that would explain that to me .

[RedHottG2]

Hope someone took Kansas tonight

[ctm0808]

Hope someone took Kansas tonight

I got crushed on UFC 144 thanks to Okami, so I took a shot on your Kansas -9 for a small/medium wager, thanks for the winner. Maybe now that gives me some damn positive momentum for the fights this weekend.

[trotterz]

Hope someone took Kansas tonight

I wanted to, but -500 seemed really high