3-31-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
10* Ohio St

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer | NBA Sides - Saturday, Mar 31 2012 8:35PM

Double-Dime bet 812 SPURS -8 (-110) vs 811 INDIANA

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

*triple-dime bet 819 Ohio St. -2.5 (-110) Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2Flatest-promo%2F%3Fcmpid%3D1560_1308).com vs 820 Kansas
Analysis: My Triple-Dime 10* NCAA Tourney Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:45 ET.
Both semifinal games are rematches of regular season games but in the case of Ohio St/Kansas, the HUGE difference is that Jarred Sullinger did not play in Kansas’ 78-67 win back on Dec 10 in Allen Fieldhouse. However, both teams have “all hands on deck” for this game and it’s hard to imagine Kansas shooting 58.3 percent (9-of-17 on threes) again. Ohio St shot 38.7 percent (5-of-17 on threes) in that game, far below the 48.3 percent the team has averaged in going 31-7. The Bucke…yes have won EIGHT of their last nine with the loss coming in the Big Ten tournament final against Michigan State. Five Buckeyes have averaged double-digits in the tournament, led by Thomas' 21.8-8.5. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks have won 13 of 14 with All-American Robinson averaging 15.8-12.5 and guard Johnson averaging 15.8 PPG over the team's four NCAA games and its final two games of the Big 12 tourney. Taylor averaged 16.7 PPG during the regular season (second to Robinson's 17.7 PPG) but had struggled through three NCAA games, before scoring 22 points while adding six rebounds and five assists in the team’s Elite 8 win over North Carolina. However, one can’t ignore that Taylor remains without a single three-point basket in TY’s NCAA tourney, going 0-of-17 from behind the arc. Coming up big in the NCAAs has been the 7-0 Withey (9.2-6.8-3.5 BPG), who has 20 blocks after four games (10 in one contest). Ohio St’s Sullinger (17.6-9.1) has yet to have a spectacular game but he’s been his usual self, averaging 18.0-8.3, while Buford (14.4-4.9), who I believe will have a terrific game here vs Kansas, is averaging a below par 11.8 PPG. PG Craft (8.8-3.8-4.7) is being lauded as a terrific perimeter defender and he’s upped his scoring in the tourney, averaging 10.3 PPG and 5.8 APG. The 6-4 Smith (6.6-4.6) is Ohio state’s fifth staretr and he’s ‘exploded’ by averaging 16.5 PPG in a Sweet 16 win over Cincy and an Elite 8 win over Syracuse. Ohio St comes into this game allowing the fewest points (59.7) of any team in the Final 4 and as mentioned, Craft is a terrific “on-ball” defender. Meanwhile, Kansas’ Taylor decision-making skills have resulted in high turnover games against some of the best teams Kansas has faced this season. “It's been impressive to see his scoring and creating ability with his larger offensive responsibilities,” says nbadraft.com “but he still hasn't alleviated any of the concerns scouts likely have regarding his ability to take care of the ball and efficiently run a team from the point guard spot.” Combine that with his 0-17 shooting this tourney from beyond the three-point line and one can see an edge here for Ohio St. Craft has enhanced his reputation as the Big Ten’s defensive player of the year over the last two weeks plus he and the rest of the backcourt rotation did an excellent job of keeping Syracuse’s bigger guards in front of them. Withey is getting his blocked shots plus Taylor gets his fair share of steals but we’ll see if Kansas get get in Ohio St’s ‘face’ and stop Sullinger inside or the 6-7 Thomas (22.3 PPG in TY’s tourney and had 19 points in the game at Kansas) and the 6-6 Buford (he had 21 points in that Dec 10 game) from getting their shots. Remember, Kansas needed a 12-0 run in the final three minutes or so to put away a dysfunctional North Carolina team, who without Marshall looked ‘lost’ last weekend (should have lost to Ohio). Kansa almost (should have?0 lost to Purdue and barely edged NC State before that North Carolina win, so for the first time this tourney, the Jayhawks get ‘tested.’ They won’t ‘pass!’ This game follows the “Battle of Kentucky” (Cardinals and Wildcats) and while I’m staying way from that one, I’m “all over” the Buckeyes in this one, as they will be taking on someone Monday night for the 2012 title.

[Mr. IWS]

Root no limit ohio st

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


My 100 Dime selection is on Louisville over Kentucky.

The current line on this game is +8 1/2 in Vegas and offshore.


His Free Play is on Kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie

NCAA Basketball Game of the Year!

5* Kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

NCAA Final Four Analysis
Saturday, March 31
Kentucky (-8 ½) vs Louisville
Louisville is the best defensive team in the nation (based on compensated points per possession allowed) and the Cardinals held Kentucky to 29.8% shooting in a close 7 point loss at Kentucky earlier this season. Louisville had trouble offensively in that game too (32.2%) and that will probably be the case in this game too, but if the Cardinals can lose by only 7 points in Lexington then they can certainly compete in this game on a neutral floor. Louisville enters the Final Four with an 8 game winning streak (7 of those wins were against NCAA tournament teams) and the Cardinals have played relatively better against better teams this season. My ratings only favor Kentucky by 6 ½ points in this game, so the line is certainly inflated. The problem is a 79-148-5 ATS situation that applies to Louisville in this game and Final Four underdogs of more than 4 points coming off two or more upset wins are 0-6 ATS. That’s enough to get me to pass on Louisville. My math model projects 133 total points, so I suppose I’ll lean with the under.

Ohio State (-2 ½) vs. Kansas
Ohio State isn’t really equipped to take advantage of Kansas’ defensive weakness, which is defending the 3-point arc. Kansas allowed a mediocre 33.7% from beyond the arc and the Jayhawks are #1 in the nation in 2-point percentage defense at 40.0%. Ohio State only makes 33.2% of their 3-pointers and the Buckeyes don’t take a lot of threes so their offense doesn’t particularly match up well. However, Ohio State’s overall defense is #2 in the nation in compensated defensive efficiency and Kansas is not as good offensively as the Buckeyes are, so the Jayhawks will probably struggle to score too. My ratings favor Ohio State by 3 points with a total of 135 points, so there really isn’t any value to be found in this game.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

2 BEST BETS IN NBA TONIGHT

Hornets
76ers

[Mr. IWS]

SCOTT SPREITZER
13-4 CBB RUN (76%)

Triple-dime bet Ohio St. -2.5 over Kansas

Double-dime bet Louisville +8.5 over Kentucky