4-19-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +147 over MIAMI (1st 5 innings)

Jeff Samardzija spent the entire 2011 season in the Cubs bullpen. He compiled strong surface stats in his long-middle relief role, making 75 appearances in 2011 and in 88 innings, posted an ERA of 2.97 but with an xERA of 3.97. The reason his xERA was a full run higher than his actual ERA was because of his poor control that saw him walk 50 batters in those 88 frames. But things started to change for him in the second half when his groundball ratio went form 36% to 44% and his walk ratio went way down. He’s carried that over to this season in which he’s walked just one batter in 14 innings while striking out 13. Samardjiza has a decent strikeout rate, good stuff, some momentum and now opportunity with a rotation that can be cracked. Ricky Nolasco has faced the Astros and the struggling Reds so far this year and his numbers have been average. In five of his seven years in the majors, Nolasco has posted an ERA over 4.50 and that’s a rather alarming number. He’s had some shining moments but he’s also been an underachiever and that makes him a high risk in this price category. Let’s leave the pens out again and base this wager on the starters. Play: Chicago +147 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).

DETROIT +106 over Texas

Yu Darvish came into the season with as much hype as Dice K did when he signed with the Red Sox a few years ago. That was a bust, as has been many of the so-called Japanese aces. In Yu Darvish's first two starts, he has yet to get through the sixth inning. Darvish has allowed seven runs in 11.1 innings with 17 hits, eight walks, nine strikeouts, a 2.12 WHIP, a BAA of .340 and has thrown 212 pitches. That came against Seattle and Minnesota. Now he’s favored in Detroit against the potent lineup of the Tigers and if he had trouble with those two weak offenses, one can only imagine what awaits him here. Adam Wilk will make his second start of the year for the home side after allowing just three hits in five frames against the White Sox in his season debut. He reached the majors in '11 after a strong season in Triple-A and got his feet wet at this level with five appearances out of the pen. He was the Tigers minor league pitcher of the year in '10 and has a career 2.61 ERA in the minors. Wilk works off his 86-92 mph fastball and though he may not have top-of-the-line velocity, he gets solid movement and locates it impeccably. He rarely beats himself with his pinpoint control and he has the moxie to succeed in the big leagues. Wilk also has an above average curveball and changeup. He may not have overpowering stuff and isn't likely to have a high strikeout rate but his command, poise and ability to change speeds makes him a pitcher worth watching. The Tigers getting a tag at home is going to be rare and usually warranted when a great pitcher is facing them. Darvish has a long way to that distinction. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto -109 over TAMPA BAY

Jeremy Hellickson was a big time prospect that went 13-10 last season with an ERA of 2.95 in his first full season in the majors. Don’t be fooled. This is a guy that outperformed his skills by a wider margin than most and it’s unlikely to reoccur this year. His xERA last year was 4.47. He was hugely aided by a 79% strand rate, which was one of the highest among qualifying starters in the league. His 35%/45% groundball/fly-ball ratio from last season is even worse this year at 34%/50%. In just 10 innings in his first two starts, Hellickson has already walked more batters (7) than he’s struck out (5). In terms of overvalued pitchers based on one year of success, you’ll be hard pressed to find one that offers up less than Hellickson. The Rays are hitting .232 against righties after 12 games and have just three wins in nine road games. They’ll face a good right-hander here in Wilson Alvarez. Alvarez has two no-decisions in two starts but was in a position to win them both. In 13 frames against Boston and Baltimore, he allowed just 10 hits and four runs for an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .208. The Jays are a cheap price today based on Hellickson’s perceived value in the marketplace. That’s something we can take advantage of. Play: Toronto -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati +142 over ST LOUIS: (Added) With Carpenter out Adam Wainright was to be the Ace of this squad, but that hasn't happened as he has gone 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA in his 2 starts so far. He has allowed 11 hits and 3 HR's in just 8.2 innings of work on the year and this after he had an ERA of 2.42 in 2010 and a 2.63 ERA in 2009. he is not the same pitcher as he was before the surgery and I expect a struggling Reds offense to take some frustrations out on him today. Bronson Arroyo has not fared well vs the Cards of late with an 0-2 mark and a 4.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but he has started very well out the gate for the Reds with a 2.63 ERA in his two starts, plus he probably won't have to face Berkman and the way Metheny has been running things, I can see him giving another starter or two the day off on this getaway game. The Reds are off an embarrassing 11-1 loss last night and will trying very hard to avoid the sweep here. Look for the upset in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Miami -1.5 (+140) over Chicago: I was one of the few that actually went with the Fish last night and I will come right back with them, but on the RL this time. The Cubs have not looked all that good in their last 4 road games, as they have lost all 4 by at least 3 runs each, getting outscored by 22 runs in the 4 games. the last game the Cubs won was at St Louis in a game that Jeff Samardzija pitched. Jeff did face the then Florida Marlins back in 2010 and the Cubs one by 10 runs, so maybe a little payback is in order here. Ricky Nolasco is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 5 meetings with the Cubs, but 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA inn 3 meetings with them in Florida. The Cubs offense looked like they were turning the corner, but they have scored just 7 total runs in their last 4 games. The Miami offense has turned the corner as they have scored 5.6 rpg and have hit .293 in their last 5 games. Omar Infante will be out for Miami in this one, but he was out last night as well and they still scored 9 runs in the game, including 6 off a much tougher starter than they will face today. Look for Miami to complete the sweep in easy fashion.

1 UNIT PLAY

MILWAUKEE -130 over LA Dodgers: (Added) I said in game 1 of his series that the Dodgers were a paper 9-1 team as the only teams they played were San Diego and Pittsburgh. Now they stepped up in competition and have fallen victim to two walk off wins by the Brewers. During that 9-1 start, the only loss they suffered was when Harang was on the mound, as he allowed 4 ERA in 6.1 innings in a 9-8 loss to the Padres. Aaron is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA on the year and the only team he faced in his 2 starts was the offensively challenged Padres, so what will he do vs a better offensive team today? Aaron has struggled with this team of late, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them and I see the struggles continuing here. Rand Wolf has struggled out tyhe gate as well. but he is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 meetings with Dodgers Blue here. The Dodgers are not a bad team, but also not an elite team either. Milwaukee Got off to a bit of a rough start, but they can get over .500 with a win here and they will do it, behind a solid performance from Wolf.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

Wednesday's Action
30 Dime winner Tampa Bay Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Micah Roberts / Vegas Insider

Minnesota (Swarzak +200) over NY YANKEES (Hughes)

LA ANGELS (Wilson -190) over Oakland (Milone)
The Angels are not hitting the ball despite a great spring training. The price looks high, but it should probably be a little higher just because CJ Wilson is performing at an extremely high level and that should last for another three or four starts. Oakland starter Tom Milone has been good as well, but look for the Angels to close this one out with a good hitting and pitching performance all around in a rather easy win. The runs line could be an option at plus-115, but the best bet is just laying less than minus-200 with Wilson.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
NHL 219-177 Last 396 picks +$5280
Game: St. Louis at San Jose (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis -110 (moneyline)

At one time the San Jose Sharks had a reputation of being an impossible team to beat at the Shark Tank, but that advantage has really lost all of its merit. While they are still tough here, the magic is no longer with them, so it is team vs. team. The Blues simply have a better team, and hold the series edge 2-1 on the heels of a Game 3 win here already. St. Louis has been great in the role of a favorite at 37-18 in their last 55, but they have also been grabbing the cash off two days of rest at 6-1 in their last seven. The Sharks have been brutal as a playoffs dog, where they are now just 1-6 in their last seven. Play on St. Louis.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Regular play - St. Louis Cardinals ML

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

The Milwaukee Bucks (29-31, 28-32 ATS) are still in the playoff hunt thanks
to the Philadelphia 76ers continuing to collapse in front of them.
Milwaukee has held its own against teams with losing records, but it has done
virtually nothing vs. winning teams as of late. That will need to change if the
Bucks have any hope of playing in the post-season, and it needs to change
immediately vs. possibly the hottest team in the NBA when they visit the Indiana
Pacers (40-22, 31-31 ATS) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN on
Thursday night at 7:00 ET.

The Bucks are 1 games behind the struggling 76ers for the eighth and final
playoff spot in the Eastern Conference heading into a Wednesday night road
game vs. the Washington Wizards that precedes this contest, and that game
may not be easy either given the Wizards' improved play as of late. Milwaukee
is just 4-13 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 10 and 9-24 vs. teams in the
Sagarin Top 16, meaning that the Bucks are 20-7 vs. the bottom half of the NBA.
That may help vs. the Wizards Wednesday, but it does nothing for the Bucks
here as the Pacers are ranked sixth by Sagarin. On a positive note, Milwaukee
is 8-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last nine road games,
although that streak loses its luster when you consider that, true to form,
all eight wins and covers came vs. teams with losing records and the lone
loss came against the New York Knicks, the only winning team they have played
on the road during this stretch.

The Pacers are on fire right now as they are riding a six-game winning
streak and they are 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11
games. That leaves Indiana in second place in the Central Division behind
the Chicago Bulls, and more importantly it has all but sewn up the three-seed
in the East behind the Big Two of the Bulls and the Miami Heat, as the
Pacers have opened up a four-game lead over the fourth seeded Boston Celtics
with four games remaining. The Pacers did the Bucks a favor by beating the
76ers 102-97 in Philadelphia on Tuesday and they could do Milwaukee another
favor here by limiting the minutes of their starters, which is a distinct
possibility with the three-seed in hand and no possibility of moving up.
Considering that Milwaukee has one win vs. a team over .500 in its last 20 games, the
Bucks may need all the help that they can get to keep their playoff hopes
alive here.

These teams have met just twice thus far this season, and the Pacers won
both of those games outright in Milwaukee with the most recent win coming last
Saturday by a 105-99 score. Besides the fact that has been par for the
course for the Bucks vs. winning teams this year, it has also continued an
interesting pattern that has seen the road teams go 9-1-1 against the spread in
the last 11 head-to-head meetings. Thus, something has to give here as in
order to build on that trend, the Milwaukee will need to buck (pun intended)
the other trend dealing with their failures vs. good teams.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +5

[Mr. IWS]

Jen Barry

50* Play

Phoenix Suns +2 over Clippers

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Youmans - Las Vegas Sportsline (solid, consistent capper)

4/19 LA Dodgers (Harang +120) over MILWAUKEE (Wolf)
4/19 LA ANGELS (Wilson -1.5 +115) over Oakland (Milone

[Mr. IWS]

DAVE COKIN
(4-6 last 10)

Atlanta (Minor -115) over ARIZONA (Collmenter)

[Mr. IWS]

Michael Tang (totals4you)
3* Reds vs Cardinals (10:45am) PST
PICK: Cardinals ML (-151) I will never make a wager over the -160 juice mark)

If you guys are worried about paying the -151 you guys can also try playing Cardinals -1. I look for them to sweep the visiting Reds this morning!

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

TB @ TOR (-125) [4:05pm PDT]

2* TB @ TOR UNDER 9 (-101) [4:05pm PDT]

2* OAK @ LAA -1.5 (+105) [7:05pm PDT]

2* OAK @ LAA OVER 7.5 (-105) [7:05pm PDT]

PHI (-120) @ SD [7:05pm PDT]

CLE @ SEA (-150) [7:05pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

ANDREW LANGE
4-2 MLB RUN (67%)

15* Editors Choice: Atlanta Braves ML-120

10* Atlanta/Arizona Over 9 (-120)

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play Texas (-120) over Detroit (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Texas has won 9 of the last 10 games and they have also won 5 consecutive road games. Texas has won 59 of the last 98 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and they have also won 86 of the last 148 games after having won four or five of the last six games.

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50* Play LA Angels (-200) over Oakland (MBL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play NY Yankees (-210) over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Bryan Lenoard:

New Orleans+5

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner:

500* NBA Over 197.5 Suns/Clippers
100* MLB Diamondbacks even
50* MLB Over 6.5 Phillies/Padres

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
NBA 45-35 Last 80 picks +$1620
Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 196.5 -110

The Los Angeles Clippers were supposed to vault to the top of the NBA Western Division when they acquired Chris Paul. They certainly could have been in that conversation, but a 7-12 stretch did them in from that standpoint. The realization has been driven home, as no defense equals no championship, and this team has now been playing at both ends. The Clippers have allowed just two of their last 16 opponents to get to the century mark. LA is now 17-6 to the UNDER when playing without rest in their last 23. Take the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
300,000* Diamondbacks

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

NHL

Phoenix Coyotes ML +135

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Essler MLB Money Line

dime bet 918 TOR (-125) Bodog vs 917 TAM

[Mr. IWS]

Boyd's 5* 23-0 ATS NBA *BEST BET*
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

Boyd's 4* Thursday MLB Blowout!
Anaheim Angels -1.5

Clippers/Suns 4* 22-0 ATS NBA *Crunch Time Bailout*
Phoenix Suns-2

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lovell

20 Star MLB Braves v Diamondbacks Over 9