7-7-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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MMA Professor - UFC 148 Picks

Patrick Cote (-214) over Cung Le

Chael Sonnen (+250) over Anderson Silva

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UFC 148 line history: Silva-Sonnen II odds a wild ride
By JASON LOGAN

This Saturday’s main event has been nearly two years in the making, which is how long odds have been available for Silva-Sonnen II.

Oddsmakers opened prices on the rematch immediately following UFC 117, but a positive drug test and venue changes have made for one wild ride for MMA bettors.

Anderson Silva opened as a -250 favorite over Chael Sonnen (+190) for their rematch (venue TBA, fight must happen before Feb. 6, 2011) after coming away with a last-minute submission win as a near -500 favorite at UFC 117 on August 7, 2010.

But when it was revealed Sonnen tested positive for high testosterone levels and was suspended briefly, books pulled the odds off the board in the third week of September 2010.

In the meantime, Silva takes a fight with Vitor Belfort at UFC 126 in February 2011 and is bet down from -350 to -195 with the public losing faith in the middleweight champ following his shaky outing at UFC 117. Silva burns his doubters with one of the greatest KO’s in MMA history, dropping Belfort with a front kick to the face in the first round.

Silva added another win to his resume, improving to 31-4, with a TKO victory against Yushin Okami at UFC 134 on August 7, 2011. Sonnen returns from suspension and climbs back to the middleweight division's No. 1 contender spot with victories over Brian Stann (via submission) and Michael Bisping (via decision).

Books rush to re-open the odds for Silva-Sonnen II, this time pricing the middleweight belt holder at -340. Much of that price was inflated due to speculation that the bout would be held in Silva’s home country of Brazil for UFC 147 on June 23, 2012.

However, scheduling conflicts with the UN Conference in Brazil force the promotion to bump the fight to UFC 148 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. With the venue moving to the United States, bettors begin playing on Sonnen and dropped the opening numbers to as low as Silva -235/Sonnen +175.

Action heading into the weekend is beginning to lean toward the champion, pushing Silva back up to his current price of -275/Sonnen +215. Renowned MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa expects fight fans to start taking a shot on the live underdog and believes Silva backers will get a better price in the hours before UFC 148’s main event.

Other odds available include round props (which round will a fighter win), and method of victory, with Silva via TKO, KO or DQ priced as an even money favorite. Sonnen via decision is priced at +300 and Silva via submission is set at +275.

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UFC 148 betting preview: Silva won't sleep on Sonnen again

You’ve got to be good to be lucky or you’ve got to be lucky to be good?

Depending on which side of the UFC 148 main event you’re betting on - Anderson Silva or Chael Sonnen - you subscribe to one of these clichés.

For those wagering on the UFC middleweight champ, you’re a big believer that Silva (-275) wasn’t lucky to escape with a late fifth-round submission win over Sonnen (+215) when the two men did battle at UFC 117 in August 2010.

And, if you’re putting your money down on Sonnen, you’re confident the champ pulled a rabbit out of his trunks after getting pummeled for five rounds, only to steal the win on a slick armbar with just 1:50 remaining in the bout.

Renowned mixed martial arts oddsmaker, Joey Oddessa, is a fan of the former – and of Silva.

“You make your own luck,” Oddessa told Covers. “Twenty-five minutes is a long time to be in there against a guy like Anderson Silva. I call Anderson a ‘heart snatcher' fighter. If you don't get his respect early and keep it, he will find a way to break you.”

Sonnen was able to grab the champ’s respect immediately into their first meeting, exploding out of the gate with a series of strikes that wobbled Silva in the opening round.

Silva, who has looked nearly invisible to opponents at times, had absorbed only 208 blows in the 11 fights leading up to UFC 117, according to CompuStrike. Against Sonnen, the Brazilian was lit up by 289 strikes and was down on the judges’ scorecards before earning the submission.

Oddessa says Sonnen caught Silva off guard in their first meeting and fought a near-perfect bout. The challenger’s right hands landed with consistency and he overpowered the pound-for-pound best MMA athlete in the world, with the help of a rib injury to Silva that was disclosed in the post-fight interview.

“I don't think Sonnen can improve on anything he did in the last bout except avoid the triangle in Round 5,” says Oddessa. “Silva, on the other hand, looked a little flat that night and has had better nights. I think he will take Chael more serious this time and fight a much better and more disciplined fight. Coming in with no injuries can't hurt.”

The two have been at each other’s throats ever since UFC 117, most recently trading barbs on sports talk radio shows. Even Silva, who is usually reserved and steers clear of the trash talk, erupted during a conference call claiming,

“I'm going to make sure that every one of his teeth are broken, that his arms are broken and his legs are broken. He's not going to be able to walk out of the Octagon by himself. I can guarantee that. He will need a plastic surgeon afterward."

While all the smack and posturing are taken with a grain of salt (they’re trying to sell a product, after all), those pre-fight interviews and weigh-in confrontations do have an impact on the betting public, especially in the hours before a card.

“Until Silva started selling the fight and predicting knockouts, the general public looked like it may have all drove Silva’s price to the low -200's,” says Oddessa. “I think the players that made it to the funeral and near missed an overpriced wedding of Anderson Silva will be whistling in the graveyard again.”

“Silva supporters should get a much more reasonable price to lay by fight time.”

UFC 148 leans

Anderson Silva (-275) vs. Chael Sonnen (+215)

Silva’s near loss to Sonnen in 2010 was a wake-up call for the champ, who was getting dangerously complacent atop the MMA world. I don’t expect him to sleep on Sonnen again Saturday.

Forrest Griffin (-355) vs. Tito Ortiz (+260)

This is supposedly Ortiz’s swan song, so he'll go out on his shield. I’ve never been a big fan of Griffin. I think his loyal following makes him overrated and therefore overvalued. Ortiz has just one win in his last eight bouts, but they’ve all come against class fighters.

Cung Le (+185) vs. Patrick Cote (-250)

Both guys seem like they’re fighting for a sandwich here. Le has yet to earn a UFC win while Cote hasn’t been in the promotion’s winner’s circle since 2008 and has been mopping up in the minors since being released by the UFC in 2010. He’s really only here because he had to replace Rich Franklin.

Dong Hyun Kim (-145) vs. Damien Maia (+115)

Maia, one of the most feared submission artists in MMA, makes the drop to welterweight for this matchup. If his cut goes fine, he’s a live dog to win this one on the ground or on the cards.

Chad Mendes (-715) vs. Cody McKenzie (+450)

Mendes took a good knock from José Aldo at UFC 142 but should be fine against an opponent dropping to 145 pounds for the first time. That’s a lot of chalk, though. I'd rather spend the money on chicken wings for fight night.

Ivan Menjivar (-105) vs. Mike Easton (-125)

Replacement fights are always tricky but Menjivar has had enough time to retool for Easton. But there’s a reason Easton is the fave and his power and striking have improved.

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Advantage Serena: Women's Wimbledon final preview

Serena Williams -600 vs. Adnieszka Radwanska +400

There is only so much you can say about this one. If Radwanska somehow manages to find a way to win, it will go down as one of the all time upsets at the All England Club.

Not only has Williams won four titles here, according to NY Times Writer Ben Rothenberg she has also held serve at Wimbledon 92 percent of the time. Scary.
Serena is also 190-4 in grand slams when winning the first set. And you'd have to think nerves are going to play a major factor for Radwanska considering this is her first grand slam final so winning the first set is a tall order.

There is also the matter of serve. Radwanska has an efficient one, but it's not the strength of her game. She's known as a player who can track down balls with abandon and Mary Joe Fernandez even called her a 'human backboard' during Thursday's telecast.

Serena on the other hand has the most feared serve in the women's game and has racked up 84 aces at Wimbledon. To put that into perspective, second most is Sabine Lisicki with 34.

If you don't like the price of Serena -600, you can also get her to win in two sets at around -190.

If Williams wins, it will mark her fifth Wimbledon title and she would be the first 30-year-old female grand slam champ since Navratilova won the 1990 Wimbledon at 33.

Williams is 2-0 against Radwanska but the two haven't met since 2008.

Advantage: Williams

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (9-1, 2.13 ERA)

Weaver is working on a 0.42 ERA in his three starts since coming off the DL. He isn’t wasting any pitches either. He fired just 78 pitches in a six-inning shutout of the Giants, tossed 96 in 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Giants, then needed 107 to blank the Indians over seven innings. His 2.13 ERA is the best in the bigs.

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates (8-3, 2.45 ERA)

The Pirates have won six of McDonald’s last seven turns through the rotation, with him allowing more than three runs just once over that stretch. The Pirates cruised to an 11-2 win in his last outing, but he did have some control issues. He walked five and gave up a homer in seven innings.

Slumping

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (2-8, 4.61 ERA)

Fister hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in consecutive starts, allowing 14 runs over 8 1/3 innings. The Rangers cranked three homers off him and he yielded eight earned runs before getting the hook on June 27 and then gave up six earned runs in four innings against the Twins. He could be still struggling with a rib muscle strain that forced him to the DL in late May.

Carlos Zambrano, Miami Marlins (4-6, 4.14 ERA)

The Marlins have lost each of Big Z’s last five trips to the mound, though he has been better in his last few outings. He most recently held the Brewers to three runs over six innings in Miami’s 6-5 loss, but walks remain an issue. He handed out four free passes to first in that one and has walked 22 batters in his last five.

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Saturday’s betting tips: Griffin chirps retiring Tito Ortiz

Weather to watch

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers – 12 mph winds expected to blow out to right-centerfield.

Who’s hot

MLB: Brewers are 25-8 in Zack Greinke’s last 33 starts.

MLB: Rockies were 10-3 in their last 13 meetings in Washington heading into Friday's action.

CFL: Over is 14-3-1 in the Stampeders' last 18 road games.

WNBA: Mercury are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.

Who’s not

MLB: The under is 5-14-1 in Brian O'Nora's last 20 games behind home plate.He's scheduled to work the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game.

MLB: Marlins are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.

CFL: Argonauts are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.

WNBA: Dream are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.

Key stat

22 – Seattle Mariners starter Jason Vargas has allowed a career-high 22 home runs already this season. He takes the hill Saturday against the Oakland Athletics in his 19th start of the year.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - The club will reportedly place second baseman Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list Friday night. Pedroia suffered a jammed right thumb during Wednesday's game in Oakland. Tests showed that the injury was different than the torn adductor muscle he suffered in late May. Overall this season, he has a .266 batting average with six home runs with 33 RBIs.

Game of the day

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, N/A)

Notable quotable

“A lot of people ask me, they say ‘Forrest, it’s Tito’s retirement fight. If you lose to Tito, are you going to retire?’ If I lose to Tito, I’m going to retire from life. Seriously.” – Forrest Griffin on his fight with Tito Ortiz at Saturday’s UFC 148. Oddsmakers have Griffin as a -335 favorite against Ortiz (+240).

Notes and tips

The Calgary Stampeders will see a familiar face on the opposite sideline when they visit Toronto Saturday. Chris Jones was Calgary’s defensive coordinator for four seasons before signing on with the Argos as their defensive boss shortly after the Grey Cup. The move ruffled some feathers and the Stamps ended up taking a $5,000 fine for failing to ask for permission to talk to Jones. The Argos are set as a 3.5-point underdog.

As a +350 underdog to Serena Williams in Saturday’s final, Agnieszka Radwanska may have to be close to perfect to upset Williams, the -650 favorite. However, in Radwanska’s last four matches, she has just four unforced errors.

After losing seven of their first eight games of the season, the Seattle Storm are ripping through the WNBA. The Storm have won and covered in six of their last seven, thanks in large part to veteran Sue Bird. She was averaging only about 10 points a game earlier this year but is putting up 17.2 points and 4.5 assists per game in the club’s last six wins. The Storm are set as 6.5-point underdogs at Los Angeles Saturday.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- McDonald is 3-0, 2.91 in his last three starts. Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.99 in his last seven starts.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.39 in his last seven starts.
-- Francis is 2-0, 2.14 in his last four starts. Washington won Gonzalez' last three starts (3-0, 5.82), scoring 25 runs.
-- Lohse is 3-1, 1.93 in his last six starts.
-- Hanson is 4-1, 3.96 in his last six starts.
-- Richard is 4-1, 2.19 in his last five starts.

-- Morales is 1-0, 2.50 in three starts this season. Hughes is 5-1, 2.59 in his last six starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 4-0, 3.49 in his last six starts. Jimenez has a 2.95 RA in his last six starts.
-- Weaver is 3-0, 0.46 since coming off the DL.
-- Parker is 3-0, 1.01 in his last four starts. Vargas is 0-0, 1.84 in his last two starts, after giving up 10 runs in the start before those two.

Cold pitchers
-- Rodriguez is 0-2, 4.35 in his last three starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-4, 9.24 in his last five starts. Gee is 1-4, 4.88 in his last five starts.
-- Zambrano is 0-3, 9.82 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton has a 5.05 RA in his last nine starts.
-- Bailey is 1-2, 6.23 in his last three starts.
-- Billingsley is 0-4, 6.65 in his last four starts. Cahill is 1-2, 8.47 in his last three starts.

-- Doubront is 2-2, 6.59 in his last five starts. FGarcia is 0-2, 10.42 in his five starts this season.
-- Fister is 0-3, 11.93 in his last three starts. BChen is 1-2, 8.00 in his last four road starts.
-- Romero has an 8.40 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Holland has a 7.46 RA in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 2.14 in nine AAA starts this year; he's made six big league relief appearances over last two years, but this is his first MLB start.
-- Hammel is 0-2, 10.80 in his last couple starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last ten games.
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Cubs won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Miami won seven of its last nine games. Cardinals are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last six games.
-- Padres won six of their last seven games.

-- Detroit won seven of its last ten home games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight games.
-- Bronx Bombers won 11 of their last 14 away games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Indians won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven home games.
-- A's won their last five games, allowing seven runs.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost eight of their last nine games.
-- San Francisco is 4-8 in its last twelve road games.
-- Mets lost four of their last six home games.
-- Colorado lost 21 of its last 29 games.
-- Houston lost its last nine games, outscored 51-19. Brewers lost five of their last eight road games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last twelve games on foreign soil.

-- Rangers lost their last five games, allowing 34 runs.
-- Royals are 7-11 in their last eighteen road games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last twelve games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last five road games.
-- Baltimore lost seven of its last eleven games.
-- Mariners are 5-10 in their last fifteen games.

Totals
-- Nine of last thirteen Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-1-2 in last twelve Pittsburgh games.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Mets' last five games all went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen games at Busch Stadium.
-- Seven of last eleven Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 14-2-1 in last seventeen Cincinnati games.

-- Eight of last ten Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 17 Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-4 in last sixteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 12-4-1 in last seventeen Angel games.
-- 11 of last 12 Oakland games stayed under total.

Umpires
-- SF-Pitt-- Last nine TWelke games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-Hst-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven West games.
-- Col-Wsh-- Home team won Dimuro's last four games.
-- Chi-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of last 16 Nauert games.
-- Mia-StL-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Davis games.
-- Atl-Phil-- Home side won ten of last twelve Davidson games.
-- Cin-SD-- Underdogs won 11 of last 15 Winters games.
-- LA-Az-- 11 of 16 O'Nora games went over the total.

-- NY-Bos-- Five of last six Hickox games stayed under. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Timmons games.
-- KC-Det-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Bucknor games, with home team 5-1 in those six.
-- Tor-Chi-- Underdogs won five of last eight Kulpa games.
-- TB-Cle-- Home team won eight of last ten Barry games.
-- Min-Tex-- Lefties are 5-2 vs righties with Foster behind plate.
-- Blt-LA-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Blaser games.
-- Sea-A's-- Underdogs won five of last seven BWelke games.

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Cappers Access

Red Sox(GM#1)
Tigers(RL)
Blue Jays

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Hondo

Hondo made an ultra-modest gain on the deficit last night when his victory with the Yanks offset his loss with the Jays to reduce the negative numeral to 1,560 blasses.

Today, Mr. Aitch will risk part of the farm on good old McDonald -- 10 units on the Pirates.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 870- 642 (58 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Sat Oak A's -160

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Mets/Cubs over 8

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VEGAS RUNNER

UFC 148 SONNEN vs SILVA 2...Preview, Prediction.

As the veteran voice of the octagon Bruce Buffer says, “It’s Time”, for what should prove to be the most monetarily successful card in UFC history. This Saturday night the MGM Grand Garden Arena will play host to UFC 148 which features the intensely anticipated rematch between current middle weight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva (31-4, 18 KO’s / 6 Subs) and challenger Chael “The American Gangster” Sonnen (27-11-1, 7 KO’s / 4 Subs).

When it comes to successful pay-per-view cards, UFC 100 is the one that all events have been measured to thus far. But according to UFC president Dana White who was present for last week’s media call, the promotion expects UFC 148 to surpass the 1.6 million buys that UFC 100 reached. And judging from all of the hype leading up to this weekend’s main event, I have very little doubt that White’s assumption will come to fruition.

Throughout this week the UFC has scheduled all types of events for fans and media alike. From pool parties which hallmark fighters and octagon girls to the Fan Expo at Mandalay Bay, the extras that accompany UFC 148 are sure to have mma fans whipped into a frenzy by the time the two combatants battle for the title at stake.

THE ODDS:

In their first fight odds makers had listed Silva as an overwhelming 5 to 1 betting favorite. This time around the current odds reflect a much more competitive fight is expected when compared to that price, but the champion is still the chalk at -270, with the take back on Sonnen a generous +230.

WIN PROBABILITY based on MONEY-LINE:

SILVA -270 = 73% Win Probability

SONNEN +230 = 30% Win Probability

Simply put, if bettors conclude Silva has better than a 73% chance of winning this bout then laying -270 or less offers them the edge needed to make this a profitable (+EV) wager…On the flip side, if one concludes Sonnen’s chances are greater than 30% then a wager at +230 or higher offers the best of it.

Before I get to the analysis for this title fight, I believe a quick review of their first encounter can’t be ignored. The simple fact is Silva successfully defended his middleweight strap but in the process, was fully dominated for more than 4 ½ rounds by Sonnen.

From the opening bell it was obvious the challenger’s claim that win or lose, the champion would know he was in a fight would become prophecy. At the start of round one Sonnen landed a lead right hand that almost dropped Silva and then proceeded to land combinations that had him recognizably hurt.

But it was Sonnen’s take down half way through the very first round that went on to become the recurring theme until he carelessly got caught in a triangle choke, forcing a tap with less than two minutes remaining in the fifth and final round. Had Sonnen avoided the submission attempt like he’d done throughout their clash, he would’ve undoubtedly exited the cage as the newly crowned UFC champion.

Many argue that Silva was nursing an injury going into the fight while others say he overlooked Sonnen, regardless if either excuse were true, when all was said and done it was apparent the challenger had earned another shot. It’s been almost two years since that title fight took place and in that time the drama between fighters has grown to epic proportions.

We’ve witnessed Sonnen continuously refer to himself as the true UFC middle weight champion and use every opportunity to instigate a rematch by calling Silva out through various means. From criticizing the country of Brazil to accusing the title holder of ducking him, Sonnen even proceeded to insult Silva’s wife. And through it all Silva remained silent and eventually agreed to granting a rematch that may ultimately be considered the biggest fight in UFC history.

But that all changed this past week when the UFC scheduled a press conference by way of a media call. It didn’t take long for Silva to inform everyone in attendance that this bout has become personal and he has no problem approaching it that way.

When asked for a comment Silva responded by stating through his interpreter and manager Ed Soares, “What I'm going to do inside the Octagon is something that's going to change the image of the sport, I’m sorry.” And when urged to explain Silva violently responded with, “I'm going to make sure that every one of his teeth are broken, that his arms are broken and his legs are broken. He's not going to be able to walk out of the Octagon by himself. I can guarantee that.”

Surprisingly Sonnen did not respond except to reassure that he’s got Silva’s number and we’ve all been duped by a champion who’s refused to face any worthy opponents besides himself.

Bottom line, I am certain that we the fans have not become victims of any masterful marketing. Instead these two men truly dislike and want to hurt one and other. Although the stage has been set for this bout to be a promoters dream, the passion and fierceness displayed by both is as genuine as you can get.

THE BREAKDOWN:

For the challenger, the recipe for victory is not a secret by any means. Sonnen’s striking is much improved when compared to his early mma career, but the All-American wrestling standout at the University of Oregon and two time Greco-Roman national champion needs to once again take the fight to the ground. Boxing coach Clayton Hires will surely have him prepared to press the attack and offer Silva different angles, but ultimately Sonnen’s offense while standing must be the precursor to shoot for a single or double-leg takedown.

He is considered the most superior wrestler in the sport and more importantly, his takedowns are nearly impossible to avoid. When Sonnen takes his opponents down on the mat, he possesses an incomparable ability to keep them there.

The knock in Sonnen’s game thus far in his mma career has been avoiding submissions. In fact, his last six losses have all come via arm-bar or triangle choke but prior to his loss against Silva, he had gone three long years without getting caught. So successfully defending against the Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt’s submission attempts are essential for a shot at beating Silva the second time around.

STRIKING & TAKE-DOWN RATINGS RATIO:

(Data Provided by Fightmetric)

Strikes Landed vs. Strikes Absorbed: SONNEN = +12 ….SILVA = +32

Successful Take-Downs vs. Take-Down Defense: SONNEN +23.…SILVA = +47

For the champion, keeping the fight standing will be paramount as far as game planning goes. Although he’s trained by the Noguiera brothers making him highly skilled when a fight hit’s the mat, against Sonnen, it’s not where he’ll want to be. Instead Silva needs to execute his accurate striking and Muay Thai skills that have been perfected training at Chute Box Academy and Black House over the years.

Unlike the initial meeting with Sonnen when Silva was only able to utilize his striking at the start of each round prior to being taken down, he’ll need to circle the cage and remain at a distance. He’ll only have a 1 inch edge in height over Sonnen but it’s his almost 4 inch reach advantage that has to be employed. The reason for this is even with being more predominant with kicks and more exceptional in the clinch, both leave him vulnerable to being taken down. Therefore, until he’s certain that Sonnen is hurt or gassed, the key to another successful defense of his title will rest on picking the challenger apart from a distance.

THE PREDICTION:

I disagree with Sonnen that Silva has yet to face quality opposition just because he’s disposed of most so easily. The bottom line is that the majority were beaten before the cage door was even closed as we saw with the likes of Damian Maia, Thales Leites, and Forrest Griffin, who all appeared hesitant to engage Silva.

With that said, there’s no doubt Sonnen will not fit that profile after embarking with a ton of confidence from their last tussle. We can also be certain that both men will come into this bout in the best shape of their careers and as prepared as possible. In short, we’ll be treated to the so called A-Game of Sonnen and Silva. That means conditioning should not play a deciding factor but it definitely could when you take into account that the title holder will enter the cage with a lot of emotion, something he hasn’t fought with many times throughout his career.

Personally, I believe that gives Sonnen a significant edge because Silva’s enormous success in mma has unquestionably been a result of his undeniable patience and focus. Now that he’s vowed to take the fight to Sonnen and issue a beating that will forever change the face of mma, he just may find himself falling right into the challenger’s strengths.

If you remember, the last time Silva was able to take Sonnen down but was unable to keep him there so he may get into trouble if he doesn’t proceed with caution and chooses to be the aggressor. Obviously the champion is not 14-0 inside the UFC by accident so he’s very capable of overwhelming Sonnen with strikes and making the fight play out like he’s promised.

Finally, in this battle of two southpaws though the betting line is much lower than the first time they met, I just can’t seem to justify it still being almost 3 to 1 in favor of Silva. Granted, most experts agree that the rematch will be a much different bout, but I have to return to the sometimes overused fight cliché that “Styles Make Fights” and there’s little to make me conclude Sonnen’s style won’t be a nightmare for Silva again.

Look for Sonnen to absorb some strikes from Silva early on and throughout the fight at the start of each round, but just like we saw in their previous encounter, the challenger’s wrestling pedigree will allow him to dictate where the majority of the bout takes place…on the mat. Sonnen will be able to keep his head and arms out of danger after some brushes with submission attempts, so when the final bell sounds he is awarded the UFC middleweight gold via unanimous decision.

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SPORTS WAGERS - MMA

MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas Nevada
TV: Prelims 8pm EST SNET (Canada), FX (USA)
Main Card PPV 10pm EST
Chael Sonnen +241 over Anderson Silva Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com)
This middleweight title fight is a rematch that has been two years in the making. The first time around Sonnen took down Silva at will and kept him on his back for over four rounds and looked to be cruising to a decision victory over the heavily favored Silva until Sonnen had a cranial cramp of Colonel George Custer like proportions and gave up a fight ending triangle choke with less than two minutes remaining in the fight. So here we are two years later and Sonnen is better than a 2 to 1 dog against a guy that he came so close to defeating. How do we not bet this? To be sure, it is fair to think that Chael caught lightning in a bottle the first time and got Anderson on an off night when he was also rumored to be battling a rib injury. Silva is undoubtedly the best MMA fighter of all time. Bar none. His six-year reign of terror in the UFC includes a current 14-fight winning streak with 12 finishes and nine straight title defenses. His striking is equal parts graceful and brutal and has provided some of the most memorable finishes in UFC history. He is in the twilight of his career and when he chooses to retire his place in history is assured. However, Sonnen is a bad style match-up for him. Despite what you might have seen of Chael spouting off on TV making fun of Anderson and the whole country of Brazil, Chael is no fool. He has worked on shoring up his BJJ and his submission victory over Brian Stann nine months ago is proof of that. The only fights that Anderson has ever lost rounds in have been against opponents that were primarily wrestlers or grapplers. In victories over Travis Lutter and Dan Henderson he convincingly lost the first round in both those fights before storming back to finish both guys in the second round. This is a very dangerous fight for Sonnen. Every round starts standing so Anderson will have a chance in every round to land that one strike that can change the momentum. Officially, we're calling Sonnen by decision with an outside chance of landing a submission. Play: Chael Sonnen +241 (Risking 2 units).

[poopoo333]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at Philadelphia

The Phillies look to build on their 8-2 record in Joe Blanton's last 10 home starts against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105). Here are all of today's picks.


SATURDAY, JULY 7
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.112; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.464
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Under


Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Houston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.194; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.575
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over


Game 955-956: Colorado at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.564; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.220
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Over


Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.225; NY Mets (Gee) 16.104
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Under


Game 959-960: Miami at St. Louis (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Zambrano) 15.919; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.285
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+140); Under


Game 961-962: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.344; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.708
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over


Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.506; San Diego (Richard) 16.565
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under


Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.882; Arizona (Cahill) 14.780
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+140); Over


Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.617; Detroit (Fister) 15.739
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Over


Game 969-970: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.692; White Sox (Floyd) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under


Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.542; Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.686
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Over


Game 973-974: Minnesota at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 15.308; Texas (Holland) 14.433
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-220); 11
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+190); Under


Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.501; Boston (Doubront) 15.133
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); N/A


Game 977-978: Baltimore at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 14.646; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.152
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over


Game 979-980: Seattle at Oakland (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.640; Oakland (Parker) 15.389
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Over


Game 981-982: NY Yankees at Boston (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Garcia) 14.643; Boston (Morales) 16.229
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-110); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-110); N/A

[poopoo333]

Fantasy Sports Gametime
Baseball Saturday

100* Play Washington (-200) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 4:00 PM EST
Colorado has lost 12 of the last 14 games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 11 of the last 13 games
when playing on a Saturday. Colorado has lost 19 of the last 27 day games and they have lost 16 of the last 24 games vs.
left-handed starting pitchers.

50* Play Texas (-220) over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play LA Angels (-170) over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[poopoo333]

Paul Leiner:
500* MLB Over 8 Mets/Cubs
100* MLB Pirates -120
50* MLB Braves -115

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CHRIS JORDAN

300* White Sox -145 (don't list pitchers)

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Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

Over 9 Total Runs, Miami at ST. LOUIS

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

2nd Biggest Baseball Release

50 DIME Washington Nationals Run Line -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG SPORTS

Game: Miami at St. Louis (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 9 -110

The Miami Marlins thought they might have a steal when they acquired mal-content Carlos Zambrano in the offseason. It hasn't panned out as his 4.82 ERA with the Cubs last year stands at 4.03 this season, and lately he has pitched poorly. Zambrano's last five starts have amounted to just 22 innings where he has allowed 21 runs. One thing the Cardinals have been doing is swinging the bats, scoring 82 runs over their last 14 games - just shy of 6 per contest. The Marlins have also found their offense as they have plated 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 17 games. The Marlins have seen just four of their last 22 games with a total set from 9 to 10.5 stay UNDER the total, while St. Louis weighs-in at 20-7 to the OVER in their last 27 as a favorite of -110 to -150. Home plate umpire Gerry Davis has been hitter-friendly with the OVER scoring 7-3-1 in his last 11 donning the mask. Play on the OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Minnesota +190 over TEXAS Pinnacle
The Rangers are slumping with five losses in a row. Over that span they’ve scored nine times. Throw in the big price tag on the Twins, plus the struggles of Derek Holland and there’s enough influences here to warrant a wager. Holland has been whacked in four of his past eight starts in which he’s allowed five runs or more. At home, he’s 2-3 with a 6.69 ERA. Additionally, the Twinkies own the league’s best OPS (.801) against southpaws. Sam Deduno last appeared in the majors early in ’11 with the Padres and he’s pitched a total of 5.2 innings. He also pitched briefly with Colorado in ’10. He once was a solid prospect with the Rockies before suffering from a variety of elbow and shoulder injuries. Deduno finally appears to be healthy and when healthy, he has good, quality stuff. He owns a lively 88-93 mph fastball that hitters rarely elevate and he can knock them out with a solid-average curveball that he gets hitters to chase. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (40 HR in 849.2 career innings) may be his best attribute. At Triple-A Rochester this year, he posted a 2.14 ERA and a .185 BAA in nine starts. As an extreme groundball guy with an encouraging strikeout rate, there is always a chance he has a breakout and it doesn’t hurt that the Rangers have never seen him. Play: Minnesota +190 (Risking 2 units).

BOSTON -108 over N.Y. YANKEES (GAME 1) Pinnacle
Freddy Garcia v Franklin Morales. The Yankees and Red Sox renewed their ancient rivalry with another classic last night that saw the game tied 5-5 after one inning. The Yanks went on to win and now these two will play a twin bill today. Whether it’s game one or two the matchup must be Garcia versus Morales for this wager to stand. Earlier in the year, Garcia started back-to-back games in which he could not get out of the second inning in either one. He was subsequently demoted to the bullpen and gets a spot start here. Garcia has lost velocity each of the past three years. His quality starts are dwindling and line-drive % is creeping up to a very uncomfortable 29%. Those are signs that Garcia is a great fade. Franklin Morales posted one of the lowest xERA’s of any starting pitcher with at least 20 IP in June. His strikeout rate was off the charts and his walks are way down. It remains to be seen if he can sustain these skills over an extended period but remember that he used to be a top prospect in the Rockies organization. Morales is way under the radar and is a huge underlay here against Freddy Garcia. Play: Boston -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).