7-13-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Dodgers/ Padres Over 6.5: I really wanna get this game out before it hits 7 overnight. We all know that the Padres have problems scoring at home (.2.98), but on the road they average 4.05 rpg, so they do score away from home. They do struggle vs lefties on the road, putting up just 3.1 rpg vs them away from home, but really they only need 3 runs in this one. Clayton Kershaw has a solid 2.57 ERA at home, but in his last 3 home starts he has allowed 10 ER's combined. Clayton also allowed 3 ER's on 8 hits in 5.1 innings of work here vs the padres earlier in the year. Clayton Richard has been solid at home this year, but on the road he has a 4.14 ERA, wild at night he has a 4.35 ERA. His road starts have averaged 8.1 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 9.2 rpg. Clayton Richard has 3 starts vs LA this year and he has a 2.70 ERA in those starts, but in his laone start he he allowed 4 ER's in just 6 innings of work. His 3 starts vs LA have averaged 11.3 rpg, while both of Kershaw's starts vs the Padres have put up at least 8 runs. I really don't see how both teams don't get at least 3 runs in this one.


MILWAUKEE -147 over Pittsburgh: James MCDonald has been excellent for the Pirates this year, with a 9-3 mark and a 2.34 ERA. He is 4-2 on the road, with a 3.54 ERA and 1 of his road starts were at Milwaukee and he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. Prior to the start vs them this year he did go 0-2 with a 10.62 ERA in his only two other starts he, so he can struggle in this park. Zach Greinke does not struggle in this park. The Brewers are 23-1 in his 24 home starts, while he is 15-0 with a 2.68 ERA in those starts. Not only does he have a solid ERA here, but he also has a 1.02 WHIP in this park. This year Zach is a 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA in 7 home starts, with the Brewers going 6-1 in those starts. The Pirates do score well on the road, at v4.4 rpg, but the Brewers score better at home (5.3 rpg). The nail in the Coffin for Pittsburgh is the fact that they are just 8-44 in their last 52 games played in this park. Pittsburgh has the best home record in the league, but on the road they are just 19-23 and that number will not get any better as the Brewers take game one of this series.


Minnesota/ Oakland Under 8: (Added) I tell you one thing, Francisco Liriano better not pick this game top go in the tank. I have been waiting for it since he came back from the Minors, but he has produced a 2.73 ERA since his return and he has has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of those 8 starts. He has a 5.05 ERA at home overall, but a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts here. In his last 2 starts vs the A's he has allowed 2 ER's and has now allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his last 7 starts vs them. A.J. Griffin gets the ball for the A's and he has been solid in his 3 career starts this year. In his those 3 starts he has a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings and it has been an impressive 1.50 ERA, because of who he faced. In his first start he faced a Giants team at home. Now SF doesn't score well at home (3.33), but on the road they average 4.5 rpg. after that he went to Texas and allowed 0 ER's on 2 hits in 6 innings. Then he took on Boston at home and allowed 1 ER on 3 hits in 6 innings. His WHIP vs those teams is a mere 0.72. The Twins score 3.96 vrpg at home vs righties compared to 6.11 vs lefties, while Oakland hits lefties at a .221 clip and scores 3.9 rpg off of them on the road. The Twins pen has been solid in the last 10 games with a 3.48 ERA, while Oakland has a 1.97 ERA from their pen over that stretch. Looks like a Pitcher's duel in Minnesota tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. YANKEES -119 over L.A. Angels

Not often are the mighty Yanks underpriced at home but in this case they are because C.J. Wilson leads the AL with a road ERA of 2.01. With an overall ERA of 2.43, Wilson is making a case to become the Angels rotation anchor. Not so fast, as his skills are not even above average. Wilson has 49 walks and 88 K’s in 111 frames. He’s been greatly aided by an 80% strand rate but those walks he issues have a way of crossing the plate in New York. Wilson’s ERA is much lower than it should be, as evidenced by his xERA of 4.34 over the past month. One could argue that the Angels 14-7 (.667) record in the three weeks leading up to the break gives them some value but the Yanks have been playing .667 ball since May. Hiroki Kuroda’s strong skills and GB lean have made him a great fit for the Yankee rotation. He usually gives them a great chance to win but this one is more about wagering against a pitcher (C.J. Wilson) whose stock is far too high. Our Pick N.Y. YANKEES -119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.68)

St. Louis +117 over CINCINNATI

Place little weight on Adam Wainright’s rough outing versus these Reds way back on April 19, as he was still fresh off Tommy John surgery and looking to find his groove. While his surface stats suggest he's still searching for it (4.56 ERA), a second half breakout appears inevitable. Wainright has a 3.18 xERA. He has 98 k’s in 103 innings, a strong 52% groundball profile and he doesn’t get taken yard too often. That groundball profile and the ability to keep the ball in the park is key at Great American Ballpark. Only once in his last six outings has Wainright given up a home run. Not many pitchers have been as sharp or as good as Adam Wainright but he has not been rewarded for his elite skills. Mat Latos’s stock is higher than it’s been in quite some time. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with a miniscule 0.72 ERA. Latos has near identical SO/BB totals as Wainright (98 K’s and 30 walks in 105 innings). However, his groundball/fly-ball split is just 43%/40% and he’ll be facing a Cardinals team that leads the NL in runs scored on the road, batting average, OPS and a few other notable offensive categories. The Cardinals on the road with Wainright going is just too strong a combination to pass up when being offered a tag. Our Pick St. Louis +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Friday

100* Play San Francisco (-210) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 10:15 PM EST

Jordan Lyles has lost 9 consecutive games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and he has lost 15 of the last 18 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jordan Lyles has lost 13 of the last 14 road games and he has lost 15 of the last 18 games coming off a loss.


50* Play LA Dodgers (-180) over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Philadelphia (-150) over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Goodfella *GOW
Milwaukee Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

2 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-124)
Listed Pitchers: Masterson vs Romero
(Note: I”m risking 2.48 units to win 2.00 units)

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-118)
Listed Pitchers: Wainwright vs Latos
(Note: I”m risking 2.36 units to win 2.00 units)

2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals - WHITE SOX (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Quintana vs Chen
(Note: I”m risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)

1 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (+107)
Listed Pitchers: Griffin vs Liriano
(Note: I’m risking 1 unit to win 1.07 units)

[Mr. IWS]

401K Sports Friday Plays
2** Pittsburgh +130 over Milwaukee(8pm) - Pitt starts of this favorable stretch as a dog to the Brewers and Zach Greinke. McDonald has been every bit as good, if not better than Greinke during each pitchers games. Pitt is 8-2 in MCDonald's games and he allowed just 1 ER in the 2 games they lost.

2** St Louis +110 over Cincinnati(7pm) - Wainright has shown signs of starting to get stronger as he comes back from TJ surgery. This is a lot like many pitchers who don't regain command fr 15 months after the surgery. AW should get some run support tonight off of Latos. Latos has an 11.37 ERA and a 2.15 WHIP in 5 starts vs St Louis in his career. With all the struggles the Cards have had in the 1st half, they are still in position to make a move here.

2** San Francisco -1.5 runs +110 over Houston(10pm) - We have a nice setup of Lyles road ERA of 6.61 vs Mad Bum home ERA of 1.59. The Giants representatives were the stars among the stars at the AS game and that can provide a bump in cofidence during the 2nd half

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange

10* Marlins u7.5

[Mr. IWS]

EZWINNERS

3* Chicago Cubs +114
3* NY Mets +146
3* Milwaukee -137
3* Oakland +123
3* San Diego +170
3* Houston +190

[Mr. IWS]

Chip Chirimbes

Marlins -116

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 7/13
952 Cubs +120 @ 2:20p
967 Angels +122 @ 7:05p
970 Jays -126 @ 7:05p
972 Orioles -107 @ 7:05p
953 Nationals +110 @ 7:10p
956 Reds -121 @ 7:10p
960 Brewers -136 @ 8:10p
975 White Sox -114 @ 8:10p
980 Mariners +127 @ 10:10p

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 7/13

4* Toronto Bluejays -124

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY
4-Unit Play. #952. Take Chicago Cubs +115 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Friday @ 2:20pm est). **EARLY**
We'll roll with the Cubs today at home against the Diamondbacks. Maholm has been of the stronger pitchers of late as he is
now 6-6 with a 4.57era which is a stark improvement to what he did have. He has put together 4 of 5 quality starts including
7 walks over his last 5 starts which goes to show is quality of control with his pitches. The last time he faced Arizona he got
rocked and gave up 6 runs in just over 3 innings as this is a revenge spot for him against the Dbacks at home today. Combine
that with Kennedy who has been on and off of late and who does come off a non-quality start, I still think the edge goes to
Maholm today because he took the heavier beating and his team ended up losing the no-decision for both pitchers by a score
of 10-5. I like Maholm here with the revenge as he continues to make a u-turn and pitch well as he looks for his 5th out of
his last 6th quality start.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

CWS (-115) @ KC [5:10pm PDT]

PHI (-145) @ COL [5:40pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

Carolina Sports / Michael Blake

Game of the Month

5* Milwaukee Brewers -140

4* Miami Marlins -119

[Mr. IWS]

Denver Money

1* Phillies/Rockies OVER 10