UFC 154

[poopoo333]

GSP vs Condit
Hendricks vs Kampmann
Lavar Johnson vs Brendan Schaub

[SPX]

I actually didn't realize a date was set for GSP/Condit. Nice.

[poopoo333]

Well it isn't "official" yet...but that's the plan

[poopoo333]

Carlos Condit vs Georges St-Pierre - 5 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1003 Condit/St-Pierre goes 5 round distance

-180





11:30PM

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

+140





Johny Hendricks vs Martin Kampmann - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1103 Hendricks/Kampmann goes 3 round distance

-210





11:00PM

1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance

+160

[poopoo333]

Carlos Condit vs Georges St-Pierre - 5 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1003 Condit/St-Pierre goes 5 round distance

-180





11:30PM

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

+140





Sat 11/17

1005 Condit wins inside distance

+475





11:30PM

1006 Not Condit inside distance

-825





Sat 11/17

1007 Condit wins by 5 round decision

+585





11:30PM

1008 Not Condit by 5 round decision

-1155





Sat 11/17

1009 St-Pierre wins inside distance

+249





11:30PM

1010 Not St-Pierre inside distance

-345





Sat 11/17

1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision

-122





11:30PM

1012 Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision

-118





Sat 11/17

1013 Condit/St-Pierre draw

+7500





11:30PM

1014 Fight not a draw

-20000





Johny Hendricks vs Martin Kampmann - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1103 Hendricks/Kampmann goes 3 round distance

-190





11:00PM

1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance

+150





Sat 11/17

1105 Hendricks wins inside distance

+323





11:00PM

1106 Not Hendricks inside distance

-467





Sat 11/17

1107 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision

+168





11:00PM

1108 Not Hendricks by 3 round decision

-225





Sat 11/17

1109 Kampmann wins inside distance

+394





11:00PM

1110 Not Kampmann inside distance

-594





Sat 11/17

1111 Kampmann wins by 3 round decision

+215





11:00PM

1112 Not Kampmann by 3 round decision

-295





Sat 11/17

1113 Hendricks/Kampmann draw

+6000





11:00PM

1114 Fight not a draw

-15000

[poopoo333]

I really like Hendricks in this fight.

[SPX]

Probably, but I hope Kampmann fucks his shit up.

I don't get why Hendricks via decision is at +168. If he wins, that will probably be how it happens.

[MMA_scientist]

Hendricks will win... wtf does this guy have to do to get a title shot?

[poopoo333]

Hendricks will win... wtf does this guy have to do to get a title shot?

Knock out the #2 WW in the world in 12 seconds.




Oh wait

[SPX]

Hendricks will win... wtf does this guy have to do to get a title shot?

I think he will probably win, but you're biased. And you have a consistent track record of underestimating Kampmann.

[Luke]

Hendricks will win... wtf does this guy have to do to get a title shot?

Stop winning by split/majority decisions.

[SPX]

The loss to Rick Story didn't help either, though that has been quite some time now.

[poopoo333]

RDA vs Bocek added

[edman5555]

Hmm my gut says RDA.

[SPX]

That's an interesting fight. I'll play RDA as a dog.

[poopoo333]

I think Bocek may be the dog. Bocek has the style that has given RDA problems in the past, but RDA seems to improve with each fight

[MMA_scientist]

Hmm. That is tough. Basically comes down to whether bocec can get tds imo.

[SPX]

Just bet GSP at -340.

I also think Hominick is going to easily beat Garza. I'll play him at -300 or better. Line predictions?

[poopoo333]

Lightweights Sam Stout, John Makdessi Set to Lock Horns at UFC 154 in Montreal (http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Lightweights-Sam-Stout-John-Makdessi-Set-to-Lock-Horns-at-UFC-154-in-Montreal-45473)

[poopoo333]

Calgary's Nick (The Promise) Ring to face Constantinos Philippou in Montreal.

Will bet Phillippou in this one

[SPX]

Me too as long as his line is good.

[mike]

Me too as long as his line is good.

-250 is good?

[SPX]

No, I was thinking more like -150.

[poopoo333]

Not gonna happen

[SPX]

Hey, you never know.

What would YOU consider a good line?

[poopoo333]

-200

[mike]

-200
i think so too but probably gonna open around -250

[Vandelay]

im thinking -300 or higher.

[Ludo]

Phillipou opens at at least -300 here. Ring got wrestlefucked by Fukuda and Fukuda didn't take Phillippou down even once.

[mike]

how does Ring win this fight anyways ? what a waste of a fight for Phillipou. I personally think Phillipou will KTFO Micheal Bisping if given the chance to fight him.

[Vandelay]

lol he doesnt. Mayb a bs hometown decision if he makes it the distance. I want to see Costa vs shields, lombard, munoz, etc. basically one of the top 10.

[poopoo333]

lol he doesnt. Mayb a bs hometown decision if he makes it the distance.

Ha yeah...I had a huge bet on Ring over McGee and was positive I lost until they read the decision.

[edman5555]

Nick ring is a good kickboxer isnt he?

[SPX]

Phillipou opens at at least -300 here. Ring got wrestlefucked by Fukuda and Fukuda didn't take Phillippou down even once.

Will that even matter? Do you expect Costa to take him down? I think if anyone tries to take anybody down it will be Ring shooting in.

This fight will be contested on the feet. I expect Costa to win but Ring has a way of standing outside and sniping and getting the judges to rule in his favor. He did it against Fukuda . . . he did it against McGee . . . it's not out of the question that he'll do it again here against Phillipou.

[Ludo]

Will that even matter? Do you expect Costa to take him down? I think if anyone tries to take anybody down it will be Ring shooting in.

This fight will be contested on the feet. I expect Costa to win but Ring has a way of standing outside and sniping and getting the judges to rule in his favor. He did it against Fukuda . . . he did it against McGee . . . it's not out of the question that he'll do it again here against Phillipou.

Well seeing as Ring was barely hanging on with Boetsch striking his only way to win is to hold Costa down. If he can't work some kind of grappling in he's going to get blasted out.

[SPX]

Don't get me wrong, I favor Costa. And I hope he wins. He's made me something of a fan.

But Ring took round one away from Boetsch and managed to get decisions both against Fukuda and McGee. I'm just saying that it wouldn't be an earth-trembling shock to see him do the same thing here. The dude is like the Leonard Garcia of middleweight.

[Ludo]

Don't get me wrong, I favor Costa. And I hope he wins. He's made me something of a fan.

But Ring took round one away from Boetsch and managed to get decisions both against Fukuda and McGee. I'm just saying that it wouldn't be an earth-trembling shock to see him do the same thing here. The dude is like the Leonard Garcia of middleweight.

Yes but let's not pretend anyone other than the blind judges thought he won against Fukuda.

[SPX]

I though Fukuda kicked his ass. It was a robbery.

You could make an argument for Ring winning rounds 1 and 2 against McGee, though.

[Ludo]

I though Fukuda kicked his ass. It was a robbery.

You could make an argument for Ring winning rounds 1 and 2 against McGee, though.

I agree the McGee fight was closer by a significant margin overall than the Fukuda fight. I had a hard time seeing even one round in Ring's favor against Fukuda and I had money on Ring in that fight.

[poopoo333]

Main Card


Weight Class



Method
Round
Time
Notes


Welterweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Georges St-Pierre (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_St-Pierre) (c)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Carlos Condit (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Condit) (ic)



Note 1 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_154#endnote_UFC_154)


Welterweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Flag_of_Denmark.svg/22px-Flag_of_Denmark.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark) Martin Kampmann (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Kampmann)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Johny Hendricks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johny_Hendricks)






Middleweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c3/Flag_of_France.svg/22px-Flag_of_France.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France) Francis Carmont (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Carmont)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Tom Lawlor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Lawlor)






Light Heavyweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c3/Flag_of_France.svg/22px-Flag_of_France.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France) Cyrille Diabaté (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrille_Diabat%C3%A9)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Chad Griggs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Griggs)






Featherweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Mark Hominick (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Hominick)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Pablo Garza (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Garza_%28fighter%29)






Preliminary Card


Middleweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Patrick Côté (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_C%C3%B4t%C3%A9_%28fighter%29)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/03/Flag_of_Italy.svg/22px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy) Alessio Sakara (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alessio_Sakara)






Lightweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Sam Stout (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Stout)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) John Makdessi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Makdessi)






Lightweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Mark Bocek (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Bocek)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/05/Flag_of_Brazil.svg/22px-Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil) Rafael dos Anjos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_dos_Anjos)






Featherweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada) Antonio Carvalho (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Carvalho)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/05/Flag_of_Brazil.svg/22px-Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil) Rodrigo Damm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Damm)






Bantamweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/34/Flag_of_El_Salvador.svg/22px-Flag_of_El_Salvador.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Salvador) Ivan Menjivar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Menjivar)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f3/Flag_of_Russia.svg/22px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia) Azamat Gashimov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azamat_Gashimov)






Welterweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Stephen Thompson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Thompson_%28fighter%29)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4c/Flag_of_Sweden.svg/22px-Flag_of_Sweden.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden) Besam Yousef (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Besam_Yousef)






Featherweight
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Steven Siler (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Siler)
vs
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) Darren Elkins (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Elkins)

[poopoo333]

GSP/Condit: GSP has question marks surrounding him with the long layoff/serious injury. I think he matches up great stylistically with Condit and should win. I think he has the striking edge and the wrestling/grappling edge. Condit has shown weakness to wrestlers in the past and GSP fights to his opponents weaknesses and I think he will look to take the fight down. I think it will look like a bit more competitive of a fight than GSP/Alves was actually. However, with the ACL injury and the layoff, I wouldn't bet GSP straight at around -350 or whatever he is. I might bet him by decision if it gets to around even money. I actually have a tiny bet on Condit by decision @+1015 right now but I fully expect it to lose.

Martin Kampmann vs Johnny Hendricks: This fight is very hard to call in my opinion. I originally thought Hendricks would be able to get into Kampmann's face, close the distance, land some big shots and get some takedowns. However, Hendricks has good credentials but he really hasn't seemed to translate his wrestling TOO good to MMA but he does it pretty well. I think he will be able to get Kampmann down a few times, but I do not think he is going to be able to run a takedown clinic on Kampmann and hold him there for 15 minutes. Kampmann is pretty good at getting back up, but the fight with Shields worries me. A gassed Shields was able to get Kampmann down, and advance position well. Alves was able to advance position on the mat as well. Kampmann also has the tendency to get backed up into the fence often (as we all know), but he isn't easy to put away. Kampmann will probably outstrike Hendricks in a straight striking match, but Hendricks has those big hooks and Kampmann is susceptible to those big hooks. Kampmann also had good takedowns of his own, he seems to take fighters down best when he is in the clinch, not when he shoots doubles/singles. Hendricks has been taken down quite a bit for a wrestler, and I think Kampmann might be able to get him down. This is a hard fight to call and I lean Hendricks to get another close decision. Also, Kampmann +3.5 would be a decent bet as well, but I have a feeling that will be close to -200.


I still have to look at the rest, but I think I am going to end up convincing myself into a Tom Lawlor pick over Francis Carmont as crazy as it sounds.

[SPX]

As long as GSP fights like GSP, I think we'll see a pretty dominant performance. He'll take Condit down and do his GSP thing. And that's pretty much that.

As for Kampmann/Hendricks, I dunno, I guess I kind of expect Hendricks to take it, or maybe that's just the pessimist in me. But Kampmann can pretty much win any fight and has a long history of playing the spoiler. Kampmann is very hittable and Hendricks could potentially land a big punch that finishes him. Or maybe Hendricks can wall n' stall his way to a decision. But Hendricks is also the guy who lost a decision to Rick Story, who Kampmann convincingly outwrestled and outfought. Kampmann also held his own in the wrestling department with Shields.

So Hendricks via KO or boring decision, or Kampmann via decision or submission would be my guess.

[Ludo]

Kampmann is definitely hittable, he actually got outlanded by Story in their fight if I remember right. Hendricks has the tools to win this, but like you said Martin has ruined a few people's special nights. It's hard to say here. On the one hand Kampmanns defensive wrestling is underrated, but on the other hand while he's clearly the superior technical striker he has a tendency to allow himself to be drawn into sloppy brawls which doesn't favor him at all.

Both have advantages depending on how this plays out. In a straight up kickboxing fight where Martin stays disciplined he takes this fight. There aren't a whole lot of guys at 170 who can play Kampmann's game and come out of it ahead. The same can be said for Hendricks' game either, though.

[SPX]

Yeah, I mean, it was a super close fight and was a while back at this point, but you can't forget that Kampmann holds a win over the current interim champ.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I mean, it was a super close fight and was a while back at this point, but you can't forget that Kampmann holds a win over the current interim champ.

That's actually another example of his underrated grappling. Thanks brah

[SPX]

Well . . . you're welcome.

I actually think Kampmann might be a better grappler than he is a striker. He has very good wrestling AND submission skills.

Most importantly though, he is a true mixed martial artist. Most fighters lack one thing or another. Maybe they're good at striking and wrestling, but they have a hard time finishing subs. Or they're good at wrestling and subs, but they're striking is below average. Or they can strike and are good at subs when they can get into position to get them, but they struggle with guys who have strong wrestling ability.

I wouldn't call Kampmann EXCELLENT at anything . . . but he's very good at everything. Truly well-rounded. And he's one of those guys who people consistently underrate, but I understand why. He's one of those guys where pretty much in any fight you think there's an equal chance he could win OR lose.

He was a favorite against Daley and Diego and lost. And he was a dog against Paulo Thiago (big dog! WTF?), Story, Ellenberger and Alves (at least by fight time) and he won all of those.

So against Hendricks? Shit. Who knows?

[SPX]

Speaking of Diego, where the fuck did he go? I saw on Wiki that he apparently said in August that he was going back to lightweight but I haven't heard anything about any prospective opponents.

And speaking of fighters who say they're going to drop weight and then drop out of sight, I haven't heard anything lately about Guida either.

[poopoo333]

Tom Lawlor vs Francis Carmont: Before looking at this fight I thought I would end up leaning Lawlor...but after watching the vids I think this fight is going to be pretty competitive with the edge to Carmont. They are both decent all around with decent striking/grappling. Carmont does end up on his back a bit from what I have seen and Lawlor can get TDs of his own. Lawlor's boxing is fairly crisp as well, but I think Carmont will be able to handle it fine. None of these guys are great at one thing, but I think Carmont is going to edge out a decision here. Lawlor may be able to win round one by getting on top, but he tends to tire and Carmont hasn't shown any conditioning issues. In Carmont's last two fights, he ended up on his back and was in some pretty bad positions/subs, but in those last 2 fights, both opponents gassed after getting the upper hand and Carmont took over/got the finish. Lawlor is another guy with conditioning issues that can end up being a part of this trend. I do think Carmont's line will be steep, so I do not want to lay anything too heavy on him. Lawlor +250 or better might be worth a small bet because he can steal rounds with takedowns, but his gas tank is a huge factor. Ideally I would like Carmont to come out close to -200 and I'd like to parlay him with GSP. Lawlor's ability to steal rounds with takedowns of his own does worry me however.


Thoughts on this fight?

[edman5555]

In the shields fight kampmann kept dropping for guillotines when shields shot on him. I think that is why he was taken down so easily. He was winning the steiking exchanges in that too iirc.

[poopoo333]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

[poopoo333]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp40btmGCrc&feature=player_embedded

[edman5555]

Cyrille Diabate vs Chad Griggs: This is probably the most relevant fight of the card. It definitely deserves to be on the main card over a fight such as Mark Bocek vs Rafael Dos Anjos. Anyways, these guys aren't too great. Diabate is the more experienced fighter, better striker, and probably won't be at a HUGE grappling disadvantage because Griggs really isn't the type of guy that is a grinding type of fighter on the mat. I think Diabate should probably take this...however, he is chinny, has cardio issues, and has trouble with guys that take him down (something Griggs will probably try and do in this fight). Griggs is coming down from HW, but he was never a huge HW..he only weighed in at 228 lbs against Travis Browne at UFC 145. I would only play Griggs here, but only if he is a decent underdog. Also, I think this fight ends inside the distance, so if the price is right..I think that may be worth a look/bet too.

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

[edman5555]

Chad Griggs is a lot thicker and stronger than Diabate IIRC. That could aid in the takedowns. He certainly would be at a disadvantage standing. I don't really know how good Chad is on the ground though. For all we know, Diabate will triangle him. Diabate does have almost 30 mma fights.

After thinking about it for a bit, griggs does have big power. It is probably a no bet for me.

[poopoo333]

Although I will probably end up betting Griggs if the price is right....

why are we betting on this fight? These guys are bums.

[poopoo333]

A fighter I really want to bet on this card is Sam Stout.

[SPX]

Why? It's likely to be mostly a stand-up fight. Do you think Stout is that much better of a striker?

[mike]

Stout will probably go for tds lol

[SPX]

Despite getting killed by Hallman, Makdessi has actually shown some decent T3D. Lesser wrestlers were unable to get him down.

That doesn't mean that Stout can get him down but I wouldn't base Makdessi's takedown defense on one fight.

[poopoo333]

Sam Stout > Pat Audinwood in the takedown department. Kyle Watson too, although he didn't really go for TDs.

I'll just say this about this fight and it's just my opinion....Stout -175 would be a good deal.

[SPX]

Stout's got the experience and he's a better than average LW but I don't know about taking him at -175. I might take him at -135 or so.

[edman5555]

Stout might be pretty decent at mixing up the takedowns with the striking. This will be the first guy Makdessi has faced in the octagon with good striking and a good all around game. Should be interesting.

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/565.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[mike]

i put 10u on Phillipou and 1u on Lawlor

[poopoo333]

Like them both. I am hoping Phillipou is around -200 on 5d

[SPX]

I was hoping to get Philippou more like around -170. . .

[SPX]

I like Hominick at -280.

[edman5555]

i put 10u on Phillipou and 1u on Lawlor

Carmont seems to be pretty good from what I read.

Phillipou was a very accomplished amateur boxer. I believe he was somewhat close to becoming an olympic team member. That said, Nick Ring is an experienced kickboxer. I don't know who wins that. I tend to beleive Phillipous is a better boxer than Ring is a kickboxer due to his almost olympic status but Nick has the advantage of having used his legs as well as his hands for his entire career. That said, I would be suprsied to see Nick use his ground game in this one(brown belt in bjj) just because Phillipou has such sturdy takedown defense. I wonder if Philliou's ground game is good enough that Serra/longo will come up with a gameplan involing phillipou shooting for a takedown. If not then this should be a good stand up battle. I have no idea who wins.

Hominick/Garza: Hominick is pretty good. Garza has had some astonishing finishes. That makes me wary of betting against him. Something I just noticed while looking at Hominicks record. His wife was pregnant during the aldo fight and gave birth a month after the fight. This might have affected his training for the Zombie fight. Maybe I am reaching.

[poopoo333]

Carmont is pretty good. I bet big on him in his last two fights, BUT I almost had a heart attack in both of those fights. He gets put in very bad positions. In fact, I am pretty sure he won his last two fights partly because his opponents gassed hard.

[SPX]

Phillipou was a very accomplished amateur boxer. I believe he was somewhat close to becoming an olympic team member. That said, Nick Ring is an experienced kickboxer. I don't know who wins that. I tend to beleive Phillipous is a better boxer than Ring is a kickboxer due to his almost olympic status but Nick has the advantage of having used his legs as well as his hands for his entire career. That said, I would be suprsied to see Nick use his ground game in this one(brown belt in bjj) just because Phillipou has such sturdy takedown defense. I wonder if Philliou's ground game is good enough that Serra/longo will come up with a gameplan involing phillipou shooting for a takedown. If not then this should be a good stand up battle. I have no idea who wins.

I don't think there will be much doubt as to who actually won, just as there wasn't much doubt as to who won when Ring fought Fukuda. But Ring seems to have a Garcia-esque way of getting the judges on his side. That's what I'd be worried about.



Hominick/Garza: Hominick is pretty good. Garza has had some astonishing finishes. That makes me wary of betting against him. Something I just noticed while looking at Hominicks record. His wife was pregnant during the aldo fight and gave birth a month after the fight. This might have affected his training for the Zombie fight. Maybe I am reaching.

The Zombie fight was like 8 seconds long. I think the truth is simple. Hominick threw a punch, Zombie dodged it and then hit Hominick really hard in the face. It happens. At the time I thought it was a fluke but Zombie showed us in the Poirier fight that he's actually pretty damn good.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I bet huge on Nick Ring over Court McGee at UFC 149 and was pissed. I though I lost that bet for sure.

Then I got real happy when he got the decision.

Nick Ring has a horrible gas tank. He might do well in round 1, but Phillipou could take over in 2 and 3. Phillipou has some pretty decent TDD as he showed against Fukuda..so Ring won't be able to get him down most likely if he is getting boxed up

[edman5555]

Yeah, I bet huge on Nick Ring over Court McGee at UFC 149 and was pissed. I though I lost that bet for sure.

Then I got real happy when he got the decision.

Nick Ring has a horrible gas tank. He might do well in round 1, but Phillipou could take over in 2 and 3. Phillipou has some pretty decent TDD as he showed against Fukuda..so Ring won't be able to get him down most likely if he is getting boxed up

Yeah IMO this one is too close to call because there is no way to say whether his kickboxing beats PHillipous boxing.

[poopoo333]

Yeah IMO this one is too close to call because there is no way to say whether his kickboxing beats PHillipous boxing.

I do not think it will.

[SPX]

Not to play the MMAth game, but just look at Ring vs McGee and Philippou vs McGee.

[poopoo333]

Philippou vs McGee.

lol, I didn't even see that shit.

[SPX]

Go watch it. McGee stole a round but Philippou won 29-28 and was clearly the better fighter. Do you watch either of Ring's fights against McGee and say that he is clearly the better fighter? Nope.

[Ludo]

Mcgee didn't win a round until Phillippou had the fight in hand and took a round off from what I remember.

[mike]

yup and lawlor gasses too but i think he will be the better fighter til he gas. he might get a ko too. Carmonts striking isnt good, his wrestling is alright. he just has a better gas tank than lawlor but i doubt he can finish lawlor.

[mike]

^^ that was to reply to pp's post on carmont.

[poopoo333]

Apparently Anderson Silva is going to be at the fight and will go into the cage if GSP wins to challenge him

[SPX]

I'll believe that shit when I see it.

But if he does, I dare him to say, "I am not impressed with your performance."

[Mr. IWS]

hope it aint another one of these moments:


http://i51.tinypic.com/2gvo6me.jpg

[trotterz]

For this event, I will consider the following possibilities for the not by sub magic parlay:
Not Carvalho by sub
Not Makdessi by sub
Not Sakara by sub
Not Hendricks by sub
maybe also Not Philippou by sub

[poopoo333]

The last two are probably the only ones you will get lines on.

[edman5555]

I looked at Azamat Gashimov's record today. It is almost entirely guys with 1 or 2 fights. He is only 22 years old. According to his UFC profile he is a sambo and BJJ champion. He is training out of Greg Jacksons camp though. It makes me think he must be pretty good. Why would Jackson send this kid to the ufc if he was bad? He probably has a bunch of other guys he could send. Granted, this is 135 pounds so maybe the herd is pretty think. I just watched a video on him and he looks like an animal. http://www.twylah.com/Greg_Soto/tweets/150000758769725440. He is still pretty young and inexperienced. I am typing this as I research by the way, that is why it is sporadic. Its been 15 minutes since I started. I think Menjivar can probably take this kid. The only thing that conerns me is his wild flailing arms and legs. He might catch Menji.

[poopoo333]

On 5 dimes, Carlos Condit/GSP is -190 to go over 4.5 rounds. It is -280 to go the distance. Just a heads up to anybody that likes that play.

[mike]

Does anyone like Siler over Elkins in this one ? also Carvalho over Rodrigo Damm ?

[poopoo333]

I like Elkins' style for betting...but I need to watch Siler, I am not sure how his TDD is.

[SPX]

I don't know that much about Carvalho but Damm is just not that great of a fighter. I don't expect him to be int he UFC for long. Apparently he beat some random Brazilian dude at UFC 147 but before that he was getting the shit beat out of him by Justin Wilcox.

[mike]

I dont know about Siler's TDD either but his overall wrestling looks decent. If he can stop the td, he'll win and i have a feeling he can. Carvalho is not a bad fighter at all.

[poopoo333]

Going on a cruise this week so I might not even have access to the prelim lines. However...I am going to be in the Bahamas all night in Nassau the night of UFC 154. I am going to (most likely) go to the Atlantis casino and watch the fight at their sportsbook. I emailed them and they said they would be showing the fights and "be taking small wagers on the fights". I'm not sure what a small wager equates to there though.

[SPX]

What's your deal with cruises? Most people do that once or twice in their life. You go like every other month.

[poopoo333]

What's your deal with cruises? Most people do that once or twice in their life. You go like every other weekend.

Something to do I guess.

But, BOL...I knew you were going to say that because you said that before the last couple I went on.

[SPX]

Did I? I don't remember that.

Also, isn't it like a thousand+ bucks everytime?

[poopoo333]

Naw. It can get around there for a 7 day one at certain parts of the year. I am going on a 4 day one this time and it cost me $339 or so for the total cost (as well as the gratuities, which is separate). I also live in Florida so I don't need to travel to the ports which is a big money saver. It's a real economical vacation if you break it down:

$339 for:

4 days/nights of lodging
4 days/night of all you can eat food of a buffet 24/7, as well as a dining room option (with good food) for breakfast/lunch/dinner...which is all you can eat
4 days/nights of entertainment throughout the day/night..there are comedy shows at nights in a comedy club...musical show things in the auditorium as well as funny game show shit as well..some of the shows are with magicians and stuff too which is pretty cool.
also you get to go to different places outside of the USA...which I find kind of boring anyways but oh well.

The only extra money you spend on the cruise will be on alcohol and gambling for the most part. I don't include souvenirs because they are gay and nobody buys them.


When I compare that to my trip to UFC 145 in Atlanta:

Probably $150-$200 in gas.
$300-$400 in food/drinks (this was for 2 though)
$380ish for the ticket to the fight
$300+ for hotels.

[SPX]

Indeed. Well enjoy that. You're like a cruise enthusiast. You should start Cruise Aficionado magazine.

[poopoo333]

Indeed. Well enjoy that. You're like a cruise enthusiast. You should start Cruise Aficionado magazine.

My Mom is the cruise enthusiast actually. She really likes them. I just go with her. This time her friend is going with her and my girlfriend is going with me so it'll be a bit different....as in I get sex after losing money playing craps/getting real drunk. If I were sideloaded, I would get it if I was going with just my Mom, but I'm not into that shit

[SPX]

BOL

[Ludo]

My Mom is the cruise enthusiast actually. She really likes them. I just go with her. This time her friend is going with her and my girlfriend is going with me so it'll be a bit different....as in I get sex after losing money playing craps/getting real drunk. If I were sideloaded, I would get it if I was going with just my Mom, but I'm not into that shit

Sickburn.

[MMA_scientist]

I have never been on a cruise. I have a couple friends who go on them and they always try to get me to go. To me, when they describe it, it seems like a total nightmare. It has no appeal to me, being in a tiny cabin or crammed in with 1000 people with some mouthbreather panting over my shoulder at the buffet.

That is pretty cheap though.

[edman5555]

I like Elkins' style for betting...but I need to watch Siler, I am not sure how his TDD is.

Siler has super long arms and legs and a lot of wins by submission. He might be a bad guy to take down. He reminds me of Cole Miller a lot.

[poopoo333]

Carlos Condit vs Georges St-Pierre - 5 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1003 Condit/St-Pierre goes 5 round distance

-195





11:30PM

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

+160





Sat 11/17

1005 Condit wins inside distance

+440





11:30PM

1006 Not Condit inside distance

-650





Sat 11/17

1007 Condit wins by 5 round decision

+740





11:30PM

1008 Not Condit by 5 round decision

-1360





Sat 11/17

1009 St-Pierre wins inside distance

+329





11:30PM

1010 Not St-Pierre inside distance

-445





Sat 11/17

1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision

-150





11:30PM

1012 Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision

+120





Sat 11/17

1013 Condit/St-Pierre draw

+7500





11:30PM

1014 Fight not a draw

-20000





Sat 11/17

1015 Condit wins in round 1

+1150





11:30PM

1016 Any other result

-2450





Sat 11/17

1017 Condit wins in round 2

+1350





11:30PM

1018 Any other result

-3250





Sat 11/17

1019 Condit wins in round 3

+1800





11:30PM

1020 Any other result

-5400





Sat 11/17

1021 Condit wins in round 4

+2400





11:30PM

1022 Any other result

-7200





Sat 11/17

1023 Condit wins in round 5

+3200





11:30PM

1024 Any other result

-11600





Sat 11/17

1025 St-Pierre wins in round 1

+850





11:30PM

1026 Any other result

-1750





Sat 11/17

1027 St-Pierre wins in round 2

+1050





11:30PM

1028 Any other result

-2150





Sat 11/17

1029 St-Pierre wins in round 3

+1450





11:30PM

1030 Any other result

-4050





Sat 11/17

1031 St-Pierre wins in round 4

+2050





11:30PM

1032 Any other result

-6150





Sat 11/17

1033 St-Pierre wins in round 5

+2850





11:30PM

1034 Any other result

-9950





Sat 11/17

1035 Condit wins by submission

+1481





11:30PM

1036 Any other result

-4325





Sat 11/17

1037 Condit wins by TKO/KO

+510





11:30PM

1038 Any other result

-930





Sat 11/17

1039 St-Pierre wins by submission

+655





11:30PM

1040 Any other result

-1275





Sat 11/17

1041 St-Pierre wins by TKO/KO

+555





11:30PM

1042 Any other result

-1065





Sat 11/17

1043 Condit wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.

+875





11:30PM

1044 Any other result

-1790





Sat 11/17

1045 Condit wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec.

+2685





11:30PM

1046 Any other result

-8800





Sat 11/17

1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.

+125





11:30PM

1048 Any other result

-165





Sat 11/17

1049 StPierre wins by 5 rnd splt/majority dec

+464





11:30PM

1050 Any other result

-790





Sat 11/17

1051 Condit/ St-Pierre starts round 5

-227





11:30PM

1052 Fight won't start round 5

+176





Sat 11/17

1053 Condit/St-Pierre starts round 4

-279





11:30PM

1054 Fight won't start round 4

+219





Sat 11/17

1055 Condit/St-Pierre starts round 3

-390





11:30PM

1056 Fight won't start round 3

+300





Sat 11/17

1057 Condit/St-Pierre starts round 2

-880





11:30PM

1058 Fight won't start round 2

+533





Johny Hendricks vs Martin Kampmann - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1103 Hendricks/Kampmann goes 3 round distance

-165





11:00PM

1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance

+135





Sat 11/17

1105 Hendricks wins inside distance

+335





11:00PM

1106 Not Hendricks inside distance

-460





Sat 11/17

1107 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision

+156





11:00PM

1108 Not Hendricks by 3 round decision

-186





Sat 11/17

1109 Kampmann wins inside distance

+340





11:00PM

1110 Not Kampmann inside distance

-465





Sat 11/17

1111 Kampmann wins by 3 round decision

+304





11:00PM

1112 Not Kampmann by 3 round decision

-394





Sat 11/17

1113 Hendricks/Kampmann draw

+6000





11:00PM

1114 Fight not a draw

-15000





Tom Lawlor vs Francis Carmont - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1203 Lawlor/Carmont goes 3 round distance

+145





10:30PM

1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-185





Nick Ring vs Costa Philippou - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1303 Ring/Philippou goes 3 round distance

-185





10:30PM

1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance

+145





Pablo Garza vs Mark Hominick - 3 rounds - UFC 154 propositions


Sat 11/17

1403 Garza/Hominick goes 3 round distance

-105





10:00PM

1404 Fight won't go 3 round distance

-135

[poopoo333]

Lawlor/Carmont going distance +145 is worth a stab...gonna follow that and see where it moves.

I like GSP by UD +125.

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/565.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

Fuck X I really need sportsbook....I would bet:

RDA -125
Maguire +170
Elkins +110

[Thewisemann]

Makdessi @+300 looks good as does RDA

[SPX]

Fuck X I really need sportsbook....I would bet:

RDA -125
Maguire +170
Elkins +110


Reload that shit. For someone who takes this as seriously as you do I'm pretty surprised you basically try to get by on just one account. I prefer to have three going at all times (only got two right now).

[MMA_scientist]

+1 on makdessi and McGuire

[mike]

im on siler, riddle, and stout

[poopoo333]

Well there we go, Kalikas opened up accurate lines on BM

[Svino]

I think I might fade Cote again and bet Sakara.

[poopoo333]

I am actually gonna be on Cote here.

[Thewisemann]

I like Cote quite a bit. I was hoping for -200 though.

[SPX]

I would normally expect Cote to win, but he has looked like such shit lately. If I remember right, some people thought Sakara took a round off of Weidman. It actually would not shock me to see Sakara find a way to win this one.

[zY|]

Cote sucks but Sakara gets knocked out by a stiff breeze.

[SPX]

I think if Sakara goes with a similar strategy to what he used against Leites he might win it.

[SPX]

I'll also point out that, before the Stann fight, Sakara hadn't been KOd in four years.

[Thewisemann]

True, but during that time he fought Vedepo, Leites, Weidman and Irvin. Irvin is really the only striker there and he was about to die before that fight. Sakara can win, but i like the chance of Cote finding his chin, but the odds are a little too steep.

[SPX]

I'd say that, while maybe not coming from a striking background, Weidman has proven himself to be quite capable on the feet.

[Thewisemann]

I'd say that, while maybe not coming from a striking background, Weidman has proven himself to be quite capable on the feet.

Now, yes. When he fought Waists, no. He has improved a lot since then.

[Ludo]

Sakara was Weidman's debut in the UFC if I'm not mistaken. Weidman also spent almost zero time standing with Sakara, he just took him down and kept passing to side control over and over. Weidman is one of those top athlete types who will get better in leaps and bounds for a little while yet before he starts to reach his potential.

[SPX]

That's not accurate and all three Sherdog judges gave Sakara the first round.

[SPX]

I think I'm officially going to say that I just don't really like this card for betting.

[mike]

Not Hominick by sub is -555 on 5dimes. u guys think any chance Hominick can pull off a sub on Garza? i think it is highly unlikely

[SPX]

Do you remember Poirier subbing Garza?

[mike]

to be honest, i havent looked at either fighter closely but i dont remember Hominick going for sub so often. I think he'll look to KO Garza. If anyone is going for subs, it would be Garza. Garza looked huge at weigh in compared to Hominick. Poirier is a sub guy tho. He's a better ground fighter than he is standing. Hominick is a striker at heart.

[mike]

Phillipou-Ring fight is canceled bc doctors wont clear Nick Ring for the fight. He got sick. I had 12u on Phillipou -___-

[SPX]

to be honest, i havent looked at either fighter closely but i dont remember Hominick going for sub so often. I think he'll look to KO Garza. If anyone is going for subs, it would be Garza. Garza looked huge at weigh in compared to Hominick. Poirier is a sub guy tho. He's a better ground fighter than he is standing. Hominick is a striker at heart.

Hominick is a striker first, for sure. But I do remember him subbing Bryan Caraway back in the WEC (Caraway himself being primarily a grappler). I don't really EXPECT Hominick to go catch a sub but I'm not going to risk 5.5u to win 1u when I know it's quite possible.

[SPX]

Phillipou-Ring fight is canceled bc doctors wont clear Nick Ring for the fight. He got sick. I had 12u on Phillipou -___-

WTF?! NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Damn it! That's one of the fights I was looking forward to the most.

[mike]

Hominick is a striker first, for sure. But I do remember him subbing Bryan Caraway back in the WEC (Caraway himself being primarily a grappler). I don't really EXPECT Hominick to go catch a sub but I'm not going to risk 5.5u to win 1u when I know it's quite possible.
yeah im not gonna make that bet. in the long run, it's bad strategy.

[SPX]

So is everyone pumped to see GSP back? I mean, c'mon. He's one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport and this will be his first fight in a year and a half. Dude is BACK! And he's fighting Condit who is probably the most interesting challenger to come a long for him in a long time.

But . . . will he be the same GSP? Is he truly 100% recovered from his injury? Or are we in for a huge upset?

[mike]

guys, i have a question. on 5dimes, if I have an OPEN 10 slots parlay going with 5 picks already made, and I want to close that parlay. Do to have to continue adding the next 5 choices to close that running parlay or is there anyways i can close a 10 slots parlay early (with only 5 picks)? basically make it a 5 picks parlay now..

[SPX]

Bocek at almost +200? WTF? You gotta bet that just on principle. . .

[Thewisemann]

Big Rigg!!!! If the fight happens, I favor GSP but Hendricks has a great shot at winning that. He only needs one. But it might look like the GSP/Kos fight.

[SPX]

Ring and Philippou awarded show money, White calls for Cote vs. Sakara rematch (http://mmajunkie.com/news/31696/ring-and-philippou-awarded-show-money-white-calls-for-cote-vs-sakara-rematch.mma)

[MMA_scientist]

Future Champ.

That is all.

[poopoo333]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

[MMA_scientist]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

I also want to see Hendricks/GSP happen. I don't care to watch Silva humiliate Bisping.

[Thewisemann]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

Silva/Weidman, Bisping is going to sleep

[Thewisemann]

I dont care for the superfight. GSP will be ruined after Silva clowns him, unless GSP wins by lay and pray, which i dont want to see either. Book GSP vs Hendricks and Silva vs Weidman.

[poopoo333]

I 100% agree Silva would clown Bisping, but I just want to make money off of it.

[poopoo333]

I will also be betting on Weidman if he ever fights Silva

[poopoo333]

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

Although different, that defintely contradicts your magic parlay.

I have found fading some bigger names against younger guys is profitable...this relates to Hominick/Garza. Hominick has been very overrated since his unearned title shot/5th round takedown and some punches to a gassed Aldo on the ground. Also, after betting Hominick at -600 (in a parlay) against Yagin made me realize Hominick is just not that good/losing it.....because Yagin is not that good.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I never really thought Hominick was that good, and I think his career is pretty much done at this point, which is why I bet Garza.

It does contradict my magic parlay... I am going to keep that rolling though. I am not sure that the same system Taleb uses would work in gambling, just that it was interesting and got me thinking more about my metality. He sometimes shows losses for years on end. The theory was that 99% of the population stays in the market because they like confirmation of success... they win a little every day, then get wiped out once per decade and they are ok with that, even if they come out behind, they write the one event off as an anomaly. He loses a little every day, then jackpots once per decade. He counts on the one event. I am like most people, in that I couldn't have faith that I was right after years of losing.

[Thewisemann]

I will also be betting on Weidman if he ever fights Silva

+1

[Svino]

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

The scoring of that fight had a lot in common with Nedkov / Silva. Lawlor had the positional advantage, but Carmont was actually landing more strikes. All the fans and journalists scored the first for Lawlor, but FM has Carmont outstriking him 10-3, and the judges went with that. I had 2u to win 10u on Lawlor by dec., placed near the end of round 1, but seeing the FM stats prompted me to hedge hard on Carmont at the end of the fight (at +130). Glad I did. Boring fight, though.

Your gift was the Cote vs. Sakara result.

[Svino]

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

I also want to see Hendricks/GSP happen. I don't care to watch Silva humiliate Bisping.

I tried to read "Fooled by Randomness" and gave up. Nothing against his ideas specifically, just couldn't take his writing style.

It's hard to tell because the sample size is small, but it does seem that there might be money on average on the really huge dogs. It's a bit different, but the vast majority of my winnings right now come from live prop lines with fairly long odds (like the Lawlor by dec. at +500 mentioned above).

That said, I am still wondering if money could be made betting certain types of live favorites very late in the fight, now that BM has changed the way their betting limits work (you can now bet more than 1k to win 1k on a favorite).

[poopoo333]

Your gift was the Cote vs. Sakara result.

Didn't bet it...was going to though. I probably would have had I been home.

[MMA_scientist]

I tried to read "Fooled by Randomness" and gave up. Nothing against his ideas specifically, just couldn't take his writing style.

I didn't actually read Taleb's book, that would have been way too tedious for me. I read (actually, I listened to the audio book) "What the Dog Saw" which is a collection of essays by Malcolm Gladwell. One of the essays was about Taleb. I enjoyed most of the book, but the Taleb section was relevant to my life, so I did some research on him and his style. I recommend the whole book/collection though, as it is pretty similar to the economist style thinking I strive to achieve.

http://www.amazon.com/What-Dog-Saw-Other-Adventures/dp/0316076201

[poopoo333]

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/378278_10100232717599301_2134188101_n.jpg
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/392814_10100198147632791_431094848_n.jpg

Hendricks at 215 when he isn't in training camp. No wonder why Fat Scientist loves this guy so much.

[poopoo333]

Here we go again.

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/5860.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

UFC Special - Will Anderson Silva face Georges St. Pierre in 2013?
Bout must take place in 2013 for Yes to be graded the winner.


11:00p

Yes

-300





No

+200







UFC Special - Where will Anderson Silva vs. Georges St. Pierre take place?

All wagers have action if bout takes place in 2013.


11:00p

Dallas, Texas

+125






Brazil

+250






Toronto, Canada

+250






Las Vegas, Nevada

+600

[edman5555]

Anderson Silva wins that one IMO, depending on weight class.

[SPX]

I've bet that fight so many times already and it never happens. Not getting sucked in again.

[Luke]

Think Silva beats GSP, Weidman or whoever they stick in front or him. Also, Hendricks has no chance of beating GSP. Hope people jump on the Johny train thinking he will win and that gives us a good line on GSP

[poopoo333]

Think Silva beats GSP, Weidman or whoever they stick in front or him. Also, Hendricks has no chance of beating GSP. Hope people jump on the Johny train thinking he will win and that gives us a good line on GSP

I think GSP and Weidman have legit shots at winning but Silva should definitely be favored (especially against GSP, he is tiny compared to Silva). The only fighter that I think I'd end up favoring over Anderson Silva is Jon Jones. Besides Jones, the only three fighters I would ever bet on against Anderson are GSP, Weidman, and Sonnen.

Agreed with GSP over Hendricks. Hendricks was not dominant and in close fights with Koscheck and Pierce. He KO'd Fitch and Kampmann in under a minute so we couldn't see much there. I really believe the Fitch fight would play out differently if they had a rematch. I'd play GSP up to -400 over Hendricks.

[MMA_scientist]

Hendricks is going to flatten gsp

[SPX]

You know damn good and well GSP will fuck him up.

[MMA_scientist]

Probably. But i am sticking with my position. I see no reason hendricks cant land on him.

[zY|]

The same reason Koscheck couldn't.

[poopoo333]

The same reason Koscheck couldn't.

::thumbup::

[MMA_scientist]

The same reason Koscheck couldn't.

Using that rationale... hendricks will land for the same reason serra did. Hendricks has already finished the alledgedly unfinishable jon fitch. Believe.

[SPX]

Early stoppage.

[Mr. IWS]

Early stoppage.

your thinking of the Kos/Thiago fight

::handshake::

[SPX]

I would bet money that if the ref hadn't stopped that shit then Kos would've recovered and won.

[Svino]

I have to say: everyone was going nuts just over Hendricks' power in the Kampmann KO, but it was set up with a perfect hand-trap.

[Thewisemann]

I would bet money that if the ref hadn't stopped that shit then Kos would've recovered and won.

And I woulda been 12-13 grand richer

[Luke]

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/KOSFuckedup.jpg

Yeah, he was good

[SPX]

We've seen fighters come back from way worse shit. Kos was still conscious and gathering his senses. If Thiago has gone down on him (BOL) Kos probably would've taken a couple of punches and tied him up.

But alas, we'll never know for sure because he was never given the opportunity. . .

[rodulph]

How does Ring win this fight anyways ? what a waste of a fight for Phillipou. I personally think Phillipou will KTFO Micheal Bisping if given the chance to fight him