7-20-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

ST LOUIS -145 over Chicago: Since June 25th the Cubs have been the best team in baseball, while the Cards are coming off a tough road trip that saw them lose 5 of 6 games and really struggle offensively. Today they will be taking on Ryan Dempster, who has tossed 33 scoreless innings in a row, but I believe he is due to be hit a little. Ryan has a 3-1 mark and an 0.95 ERA on the road this year, but his worst road outing of the year was here in which he allowed 4 ER's on 9 hits and a walk in 6 innings. Kyle Lohse has had a very nice year for the Cards so far, as he is 9-2 with a 2.80 ERA overall and 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA at home. Kyle has really been rolling of late posting a 2.11 ERA over his last 8 starts while not allowing more than 3 ER's over that stretch. The Cards offense has struggled of late, but they are now back home, when they average 4.93 rpg, while the Cubs average just 3.79 rpg on the road. St Louis doesn't want to keep dropping games in the standings and at home vs a pitcher that is due to be hit I say they will look to start righting their ship with a big win tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +123 over CLEVELAND

Miguel Gonzalez has finally reached the majors after a long and difficult road. Gonzalez was originally in the Angels organization from ’05 thru ’08 before being picked up by the Red Sox. He missed all of ’08 and ’09 due to arm issues and Boston eventually released him at the end of the ’11 campaign. Baltimore scooped him up and he immediately opened some eyes in the minors when he allowed just 10 hits in 30 innings. Since his call-up, he’s made two starts and pitched long relief in his three other appearances. Gonzalez has struck out 21 in 24 frames. He owns an 86-92 mph fastball that he locates precisely to all areas of the strike zone. He mixes in an outstanding slider and average change up. The knock has been control. He’s issued 12 walks in his 24 innings but that’s something that he did not exhibit in the minors, where he displayed very good command. Expect the walk totals to decrease and with that Gonzalez offers up some pretty nice value opposing Derek Lowe. We keep seeing examples of pitchers that outpitch their skills eventually getting exposed. Derek Lowe is among that group. He has 35 walks and 39 strikeouts in 108 innings. You would be hard-pressed to find a pitcher with a lower K rate than Lowe. He has eight wins already and that would project to be about 15 or 16 wins at season’s end. Guys like Clayton Kershaw, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander win 16 games. Guys like Derek Lowe do not and that makes him a prime fade candidate.

San Fran +123 over PHILADELPHIA

Despite a 3.47 ERA, Vance Worley offers some reason for pause. His July numbers trended the wrong way. In three July starts covering 16 innings, Worley allowed 26 hits and 11 earned runs. His xERA went from 3.64 to 4.49 and his groundball rate in those three July starts went from 49% to 47% to 39%. Perhaps the bone chips in his elbow, which landed him on the DL in May, are acting up? Worley looks to be a pitcher in peril and the Phillies offense, ranked 25th in runs scored in July, is unlikely to bail him out. Tim Lincecum is 1-6 on the road with an ERA of 9.00 and that’s just one of those odd statistics in baseball that doesn’t make any sense. Lincecum’s xERA is a sound 3.77 and that’s more than five runs lower than his actual ERA. A discrepancy like that is rarely seen and while it doesn’t guarantee a thing, it assures us that Lincecum still has the skills to thrive. A 61% strand rate hasn't done him any favors. His latest outing (8 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks) was easily his most impressive but it also significantly shortened his buy-low window. We’ll gladly look to take advantage of that here, as there is still a lot of value left in Tim Lincecum’s arm.

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Friday

100* Play Tampa Bay (-175) over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Seattle has lost 28 of the last 39 games when playing in the month of July and they have also lost 25 of the last 30 road games vs. AL East Division Opponents. Seattle has lost 50 of the last 74 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 18 of the last 22 games when playing on artificial turf.


50* Play Detroit (-180) over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play LA Angels (-145) over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)