7-23-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati -1½ +107 over HOUSTON

The beat goes on for the Astros. They were swept in Arizona on the weekend and were outscored 33-13 in the three-game set. The Astros’ staff has allowed eight runs or more in five of their past six games. They’ve now lost 19 of their past 21 games and if that’s not demoralizing enough, constantly being behind by crooked numbers before the fifth inning is. Wandy Rodriguez, who is likely the next Astro to be dealt, is coming off back-to-back outings in pitcher friendly San Diego and San Francisco in which he allowed nine runs in a combined 10 frames. The Astros have lost five of his last six starts.

Meanwhile, the Reds are hot with four wins in a row and nine wins in their past 11 games. For whatever reason, it took some time for Mat Latos to settle down in Cincinnati after an off-season trade. His 5.97 ERA from April is a thing of the past. Latos K/BB totals have maintained a high level with 106 K’s in 113 innings with just 35 walks issued. He has a groundball bias profile and he’s been especially electric in his last six starts. He should make quick work of this pathetic lineup with the Reds bats providing plenty of support.

Los Angeles +120 over ST. LOUIS

Chad Billingsley will be making his first start since July 7 and while it is tough to recommend backing a pitcher returning from an elbow injury, he was on a roll (25 K’s/4BB - 3.15 xERA) over his previous four outings before requiring some time off. It is unlikely that the Dodgers would not start him unless he was healthy and ready to go.

The real appeal here, aside from the tag, is to fade Joe Kelly. Kelly's early success has turned some heads but the underlying skills leave much to be desired. His strikeout rate is average at best with 25 in 41 frames. Kelly has a big gap between ERA (2.75) and xERA (4.22) due to an 84% strand rate and mediocre K/BB numbers. Given his low strikeout rate, his walks allowed could become an issue. Kelly was called to fill a hole in the Cardinals’ rotation despite having thrown just 59 innings above high A-ball prior to this season.

Everything about this rookie’s profile suggests he needs more seasoning and it’s only a matter of time until his surface stats regress. This is as good a time as any.

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Philadelphia (-200) over Milwaukee

50* Arizona (-190) over Colorado

50* LA Angels (-190) over Kansas City

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Washington -130

50* Over 7.5 Phils/Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston +125 over TEXAS: Google News Play (11-4 L15) I don't play a lot of dogs, but i am always looking for a good spot to do so and I feel this is the perfect spot. The Sox have missed David Ortiz' bat of late, but that may even out in this series, considering the slump that Hamilton is in of late. Hamilton has some good numbers in this series, batting .381 with 23 RBI's since 2010 vs the Sox, but he is really pressing right now and may not break out vs a hot pitcher in Felix Doubront. Felix has a 2.70 ERA in the month of July and has been solid on the road this year with a 5-1 mark and a 3.09 ERA. Felix is one of the best in league at getting run support (6.83 rpg) and the Sox are 7-1 in his road starts and have given him 6.3 rpg away from home. Boston should break out of their funk some here as they will be facing Scott Feldman, who was 2-5 with a 7.34 ERA in his 8 starts before getting sent to the pen. He also allowed 2 runs (6 Earned) on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings of work in his lone start vs Boston this year. The Sox need this one bad, they have the pitching advantage, Texas is off a tough emotion series vs the Angels and they are home off a long road trip. Add it all up and you get a solid play on the dog in this one.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Chicago +130 over PITTSBURGH: YCjiou all know how much I hate the Sharp,s but I have to follow them here and even better is that this play is backed by a solid 85% winning situation. When this game came out last night and I looked at the pitching matchup and what the pirates have just come off of I said this play will be making my card today. Jeff S. has been pitching very well for the Cubs of late, with a 1-1 mark and a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has struggled on the road (3-5 with a 5.40 ERA), but in his last 2 road starts he has pitched better with a 2.57 ERA and the Pirates struggle to hit and score at home, hitting just .233 vs righties and scoring just 3.76 rpg at PNC this year. Erik Bedard is off a solid outing in Colorado, but he is still 2-4 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Cubs offense has put up just 1 run in their last 3 games, but that won't last and I expect them to have good success tonight. The Pirates are off a big 3 game sweep over the Marlins, so they may not be as focused here as they take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. The Cubs played here earlier in the year and were swept, but they played hard in losing 2 of the 3 by 1 run. The lone blowout was when Bedard was on the mound, but that was his first start vs Chicago, so know that advantage is gone for Pittsburgh, while the Cubs get the advantage of Pittsburgh never having seen Jeff S. Look for Chicago to steal game 1 here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 Pittsburgh is just 3-17 in game 1 of a home series off a win in which they drew at least 1 walk and were not more than a .250 dog in that win.

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

20*Red sox Over 10 -120

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

30 Dime White Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 7/23
952 Pirates -140 @ 7:05p
968 Indians -150 @ 7:05p
955 Braves +114 @ 7:10p
959 Reds -160 @ 8:05p
969 Red Sox +116 @ 8:05p
971 Twins +122 @ 8:10p
961 Dodgers +121 @ 8:15p
975 Yanks -163 @ 10:10p

[Mr. IWS]

Ace-Ace

2 Units Washington -120
1.5 Units Chicago WS -125

[Mr. IWS]

401k Sports

2** Pittsburgh -140 over Chic Cubs (7pm)

2** Pitt/Cubs Under 8 (-120)

Day 10 of the Pitt tail. We stand at 6-3 +6.8 units. This is where the chase should get juicy. I compare this position we are in to being the chip leader at a poker game. Sometimes you will put yourself into a hand even though it isn't totally the proper play. Chances are you will win the hand though. You pick up a few hands(units) that you might not have otherwise played because you are playing from ahead. Would I play this game if I hadn't played pitt all along? likely not. But with the cushion we have the we can afford to go for it. You may get 7.5 for the o/u at -105 but that is still worth it. Right now 8 is at 1.2 the books and I like that # better.

1* Cincinatti -155 over Houston (8pm)

1* Cincy -1.5 runs +105 over Houston

Houston has now lost 18 of 20 games with 15 of those 18 losses being by 2+ runs. We have made some coin(not as much as we should have..but some) by playing against Houston so let's start to play off of that. We have Hou playing Pitt over the weekend so the 2 tail/fades will combine soon. Latos is either Fantastic or awful. Lately he has been on the solid side with 6 of his L8 starts being quality. Rodriguez, like the rest of the team, seems to be wearing down as the losses mount. His L5 starts he has a 5.90 ERA. Let the fade train roll.

[Mr. IWS]

DHayes

1* Mets/Nats -110 Under 8

1* Twins +124

1* Angels -1.5 +100

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. Washington vs. NY Mets Over 8

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

300 Pittsburgh -150

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster


Yankees (5 UNITS)

Nationals (5 UNITS)

Orioles (4 UNITS)

Braves (4 UNITS)

Dodgers (4 UNITS)

Pirates (3 UNITS)

Rangers (3 UNITS)