7-27-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Vic Monte

6000* Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies - REDS TO WIN (-108)
Listed Pithers: Arroyo vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.16 units to win 2.00 units)

The Reds enter tonight's game off of a sweep in Houston, and have now won 7 straight games. They are 1st int he NL Central with their 58-40 record (27-22 on the road). The Rockies are a different story, as they have dropped 6 of their last 8 games and continue to slide. They are 5th in the NL West with a 37-60 record, and are just 20-29 at home. Tonight Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for Cincinnati, and he is 5-6 on the season with a 3.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .273 opponents batting average. He is 4-4 on the road with a lower 3.74 ERA. Over his last three starts he has had two quality starts with a rough outing in the middle - the quality starts included a complete game shutout, and his latest going 6 innings allowing just 5 hits and 2 earned runs. Drew Pomeranz will pitch for Colorado as he looks to improve on his 1-5 record, 4.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .253 opponents batting average. In his last two starts he has been roughed up for 14 hits and 12 earned runs over just 8 innings of work. Take note that the Reds are one of the leagues hottest teams right now going 14-2 in their last 16 games overall, while the Rockies are one of the coldest teams in the league going 7-14 in their last 21 games. The Reds are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite, and 6-0 in their last 6 road games. Take note that Cincy is 7-2 in Arroyo's last 9 with 5 days rest, 9-4 in his last 13 starts as a favorite, and 19-7 in his last 26 road starts vs a team with a losing record. The Rockies are just 7-21 in their last 28 games as a home underdog, 37-81 in their last 118 games as an underdog overall, and 22-46 in their last 68 vs a team with a winning record. The Rockies are also 1-4 in Pomeranz's last 5 starts. The pitching match up favors the Reds, and I don't see the struggling Rockies ending their winning streak in tonight's ball game. Take the Reds.

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Friday

100* Play St. Louis (-175) over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 2:20 PM EST

Lance Lynn has won 9 of the last 10 division games and he has won 7 of the last 8 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher. Lance Lynn has won 8 consecutive games coming off a win and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 0.47.

50* Play Pittsburgh (-155) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

3* Montreal

Analysis: Montreal had a chance last week to~ move to 3-1 and stand alone atop the East standings. The road blowout loss has shown that Montreal has been inconsistent on the road, but we will side with them as they return home to take on the rival Toronto Argonauts.

Montreal, who are always in contention has dominated the series between these two clubs, going 8-2 in the last ten meetings, and Toronto has been a brutal 3-11 ATS in the last 14 match-ups.

This match-up features a battle of two veteran quarterbacks, both happen to be the #1 & #2 in passing yards in Anthony Calvillo and Ricky Ray. Toronto is coming off a tight victory over the bottom feeding winless Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and Montreal was upset by the rebuilt Hamilton Tigercats. We see more motivation on the Montreal sidelines with the East lead and the incentive to bounce back after the blowout loss at Hamilton.

Simply put, Montreal needs its big guns, Calvillo (10 TD/3 INT) to step up and produce. Slotbacks Jamel Richardson and S.J. Green need to step up and take over the Toronto secondary that has given up over 30 points per game throughout the season. Take the Alouettes with the points.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati/COLORADO over 10.5

The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. The Coors Field effect should definitely come into play here against two horrible starters.

Colorado hits a league-leading .289 at home and they’ll face Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo's last start at Coors didn’t last into the second inning after he gave up six runs in the first. In five starts at Coors Field over the past three years, covering just 26 frames, Arroyo has surrendered eight bombs and posted an ERA of 6.84.

Drew Pomeranz is worse. Starting at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in his last start, Pomeranz gave up nine hits and seven runs in three frames. In 43 innings this season, he’s walked 22 batters and has yet to win at home in three starts. Facing a strong offensive club, Pomeranz is on a strict 80-pitch limit. This looks like a 4½-hour ordeal that has hitters licking their chops. We are too.

Washington +120 over MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has lost seven straight and the bullpen continues to get abused. Between the starters and bullpen, the Brewers have allowed seven runs or more in four straight games. With the pen struggling so miserably, extra pressure is on the starters to not only perform well but to last deep into games.

Michael Fiers has been one of the only bright spots to a disappointing season for the Brewers. He comes in with a 1.96 ERA after nine starts. He has 58 K’s in 60 frames with just 13 walks issued but his pedigree reeks of skepticism. He’s 27 years old and has been in the minors for years. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits are not pretty at 31%/25%/44%. He’s also been greatly aided by an 82% strand rate and an unusually low 3% HR/fb rate for a fly-ball pitcher, With luck turning on the Brewers and having to face a hot foe, chances are luck turns against Fiers too.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have reeled off six in a row in which they’ve scored five or more in each game. Without anyone really noticing, Ross Detwiler has been on fire this month (1.89 ERA). He has an elite 59% groundball rate and it sure doesn’t hurt watching and learning from the best starting pitching staff in baseball. Hot vs. cold and brittle, taking back a price, gets the call.

[Mr. IWS]

GoodFella


Double-Dime Bet 2* Reds Over 10



Double-Dime Bet 2* Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Bryan Leonard

Thursday MLB Total Domination

Double-Dime Bet Texas Under 9

Analysis
Chicago White Sox @ Texas

Chris Sale takes on Yu Darvish in the first game of a critical weekend set for both ballclubs. Sale has been a stud this season, going 11-3 with a 2.37 ERA with 108 strikeouts against just 29 walks. Darvish has had a few ups and downs this season, but they've mostly come in his second or third start against a team. When facing a team for the first time, Darvish has a 2.55 ERA in 10 starts. Darvish prides himself on throwing a lot of different pitches and it takes hitters time to get accustomed to what he's throwing, hence the success the first time out against a team.

Darvish is averaging 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings while Sale is at 8.26. Anytime a ball isn't put in play in Texas, that's a big deal. The Rangers have scored just 62 runs in 18 games so far in July and the White Sox are going just over four runs per game on the road. With two pitchers that neither offense is overly familiar with and a couple of guys who have good swing-and-miss stuff, runs could be at a premium.

PLay: Texas Under

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

951 Cards -175 @ 2:20p
967 Tigers Even @ 7:05p
970 Orioles -110 @ 7:05p
972 Yanks -170 @ 7:05p
954 Marlins -135 @ 7:10p
955 Phillies -110 @ 7:35p
973 White Sox +120 @ 8:05p
960 Brewers -130 @ 8:10p
975 Indians Even @ 8:10p
961 Reds -120 @ 8:40p
978 Angels -170 @ 10:05p

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

400,000♦Road Warrior Game of the Year
Reds

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

40 Dime
Winner# 6 of 8
Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

20 Dime
Winner #4 of 6
Oakland A's

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

25 Dime Each


Philliesl Under
Rockies Under
Yankees Over

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco

10 Dime
WINNER # 4 IN A ROW

Reds

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers

40 Dime
WINNER #10 of 17

BOOKIE BASHER

Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Milwaukee Brewers -130

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Essler | MLB Money Line

Triple-Dime Bet Toronto

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

20* Dog of the Month Tigers +109
15* Nationals +122
15* Mets +130
Free Play Twins -132

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange

10* Orioles -105

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
Second-Biggest
MLB Release this season

75 Dime
Giants RL

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
Winning Day #19 of 26

400 Line Mistake Winner
Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

TEXAS -135 Over Chicago: Google News Play Gotta love the Rangers here, especially with double the revenge. First was the fact that Chris Sale was the starter when the Rangers took their worst loss of the year, a 19-2 defeat in Chicago back on July 3rd and the second revenge factor is the fact that Chicago also swept Texas in that series. Chris Sale has been special for the Sox this year, but after allowing 5 ER's in his last start may he be tiring a bit? In his last 2 years he has pitched just 94 total inning, but this year he is already at 117 innings pitched. The Ranger offense has been struggling for much of the month, but they showed signs of coming out of it in their last series vs Boston. Texas does average 5.4 rpg at home and when Darvish has been on the mound at home they have averaged 6.6 rpg for him. Yu is 6-1 at home with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox score very well at home, but on the road they have averaged 4.08 rpg, including putting up just 3.9 rp/9 innings off of righties away from home. Payback should be in order here by a team that is probably the best in baseball.

3 UNIT PLAYS

MILWAUKEE -131 over Washington: Tough to go against a Washington team that has won 6 in a row and has allowed exactly 2 runs in each game, but I feel this is the spot to do so. Ross Detwiler has allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts since returning to the rotation, but both were at home and vs offensively challenged Atlanta and the Mets. Now he is one the road vs a Milwaukee squad that scores 5.16 rpg at home, including 5.38 rp/9 innings at home vs lefties. Michael Fiers has been very steady for the Brewers this year, but not allot of wins as the run support just hasn't been there for him. Michael is 3-4 on the year, but with a 1.96 ERA, while at home he has gone 1-3 with a 2.78 ERA. The Brewers are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts, but he carries an 0.88 ERA in those 6 games. Incredible. The Nats do score score 4 rpg on the road, but should be hard pressed to get to that tonight. Ross is 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA at night, while Michael is 2-0 with a very nice 0.45 ERA in 3 night starts and that seems to be the time that he gets some run support as the Brewers have scored 4.7 rpg for him at night. The Nats are playing well right now, but this looks like the perfect spot for them to take a fall. Let's just hope that Michael will go all 9 and keep that horrid Brewers pen out of it. LOL. Look for milwaukee to bounce back tonight.

Boston/ NY Yanks Under 10.5: Boston's offense has been sputtering of late and the loss of Ortiz certainly hasn't helped. The BoSox have scored just 3.2 rpg in their last 5 games and just came off a series in Texas where they scored 6 runs in the 3 games. The Yankees offense has also been sputtering of late as they have averaged just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 games, with the Under going 9-1 in those games. Granted the Yanks played 7 of those games in non-hitters parks (Seattle and Oakland), but this is their first game back from that trip and it may take them a game or two to get their timing back. They will also be facing Aaron Cook, who has pitched very well of late. Aaron is just 1-2 in his last 4 starts, but he has a 1.91 ERA in those starts. The Sox have given him just 3.8 rpg worth of support in those starts and just 3.5 rpg worth of support in his 2 road starts this year, where he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA. Phil Hughes has been pitching very well for New York of late. in his last 9 starts Phill has allowed more than 3 ER's just once, while he comes in with a 3.94 ERA at home on the year. In his last 3 home starts he has allowed just 4 ER's in 23 innings of work and his home starts this year have averaged just 8.9 rpg. We Also have solid pens in this one, especially a Boston pen that has a 2.36 ERA on the road. THis game should not come all that close to double figures.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

LA ANGELS -162 over Tampa Bay: One of the things that I realized in the last 8 weeks is that you don't have to pick just dogs or favorites at 130 or less to be considered a good handicapper. For the first part of the year I went with a ton of totals and kinda got caught up with the Marco contest trying to play allot of games at under 120 and it cost me. My hats off to Marco cause that was an unbelievable streak and very hard to do. Well after looking over some of the pro's pages I have seen higher juiced games being played. So with all the poor bullpens screwing up totals I have adapted and started to throw in some higher juiced games at times and it has helped. Still I have made just 8 top plays on favorites of over 150 this year and have gone 7-1 in those games and I really like this one. Alex Cobb has really struggled of late, going 1-4 with a 7.02 EA in his last 5 starts. Alex is 2-2 with a 5.54 ERA on the road, but just 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 3 starts away from home. Now he must take to the road again and face an Angels squad that has averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games and as the season has progressed they just seem to be getting better offensively. The Ray's have not been getting better as they have averaged just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 and 3.4 in their last 5. Dan Haren was horrid before his stint on the DL, but he came back to hold down a strong Texas offense allowing just 2 ER's in 6 innings. Dan is also 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Rays. Tampa Bay is really outmatched at the plate and on the mound and will not walk away with a win here. See Below For The Power Angle For This Play.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

San Diego/ Miami Over 8.5

ARIZONA -135 over NY Mets

1 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis -160 over CHICAGO

Philadelphia -106 over ATLANTA: Google News Play

2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (10-1 RUN) (19-9 +7.31 UNITS)

Play against all teams (Toronto) with a ML line of -100 to -150 if they are off off 2 or more consecutive Overs, vs a team that is is 4 or more consecutive Unders. This Play is 30-13 the last 5+ seasons. Play on Detroit +107 over Toronto.

Since 2004 the Rays are 1-17 as a road dog of 130 or more if they lost by 1 run in their starters last start and he had a WHIP of at least 1.35 in that start.
Play on LA Angels -164 over Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

OAK (+100) @ BAL [4:05pm PDT]

PHI (-105) @ ATL [4:35pm PDT]

WSH @ MIL OVER 8 (-105) [5:10pm PDT]

KC @ SEA UNDER 7.5 (-125) [7:10pm PDT]

CIN @ COL OVER 10 (-115) [5:40pm PDT]

KC (+110) @ SEA [7:10pm PDT]

CWS @ TEX (-135) [5:05pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

Bison Sports Handicapping

Orioles (-105)

Giants OVER 6.5

Parlay Yankees / Rangers (+200)

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

Miami Over

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
CFL
7* Toronto / Montreal Over 56.5

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Friday 7/27/12 Plays...

4* INDIANS/TWINS (OVER)

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--