7-31-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Teddy's Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season Baseball
Ted Sevransky

Teddy's Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season Baseball

NFL training camps open up around the country this coming weekend. The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind. Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now. We’ve got a rapidly maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore. Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up. Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.

The first preseason Week 1 pointspreads are now on the radar screen, as are the Week 1 college football pointspreads – the games are already loaded into the system on my SportsOptions (http://www.sportsoptions.com) Live Odds screen. College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences. Best of all, just about every day from here through the ‘real’ start of football season at the end of August, we’ll see fresh numbers on a daily basis at one sportsbook or another.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football? After all, we’re only ten days out from the All Star break – there’s more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play. There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 96 games of their 162 game schedule as I write this on Sunday Night – every team in both leagues still has at least 3/8 of their schedule to complete.

Yet any sportsbook director in town will tell you that the interest level for betting baseball really starts to dwindle around this time of the year. Casual bettors who have struggled tend to walk away from MLB, waiting for football to start. Casual bettors who have earned a profit also shift their focus – football is king for most amateur bettors; baseball is something to bet on when there’s no hoops or football available to wager on.

Wiseguy bettors are no different from the amateurs in this regard. Sharp bettors seem to get frustrated with baseball’s random results (blown saves, late rallies, bullpen meltdowns and seemingly improbable occurrences on a regular basis) more than they get frustrated by the equally random results that occur in football (turnovers, red zone failures, special teams miscues and another set of seemingly improbable circumstances that seem to occur on a regular basis).

In casual conversation around town with other bettors, I’ve heard more than a handful of successful, long term winning bettors eschew the second half of the MLB season. Their money is tied up in football bets, leaving their bankroll less ‘liquid’ than it is at other times of the year.

That leaves a baseball betting marketplace that quite literally gets smaller by the day in late July and August, before the pennant races start to heat up in September. The action at this time of the year is truly dominated by computer formula driven syndicates. Even when that September money starts to flow again, baseball must share the spotlight with football. The next time MLB will be on center stage for sports bettors won’t be until 2013.

So what happens when the betting markets for a ‘major’ sport lose many of their casual bettors and more than a handful of wiseguys as well? The nuances of the marketplace change, often rather dramatically. We’re ten days out of the All Star break, and already, we’ve seen all the ‘what to watch for in the second half’ articles come and go from sportsbetting sites and even major media outlets. Once the trading deadline passes only July 31st, we won’t see much more mainstream MLB content that doesn’t involve potential playoff teams and division or wild card races.

So, how do the sharp bettors that are still focusing on baseball approach this stage of the season; a time of the year where computer generated numbers hold significant sway in the betting markets? I’ll spend the rest of this week’s article breaking it down.

These are the dogs days of summer; the time of the year where bad teams and bad pitching staffs simply aren’t capable of ‘stepping up’ on a regular basis. The prices for favorites really start to go up in the second half -- we'll start to see -300 or higher chalk shortly when good teams play 'dead' ones.

The Houston Astros are a prime example. On May 25th, the Astros were one game under .500; sitting in third place in the NL Central with a 22-23 record. In the nearly two months since that span, the Astros have gone 12-39 playing consistently awful baseball. This past weekend, we saw Houston as a $2 underdog multiple times at Arizona (a team with a losing record) against the likes of Josh Collmenter and Wade Miley – solid pitchers, but not aces.

Obviously, those type of high prices to fade the very worst teams makes it more expensive to lay the price with the superior team. That being said, bettors who are willing to lay the big chalk (something many sharp bettors are reluctant to do) can enjoy real success at this time of the year. That being said there are occasional times where I'll pull the trigger on a +250 dog simply because ‘the price is right’, wagers that I wouldn't have bet at a +200 price point in the first half of the campaign.

Sharp bettors are definitely looking for overworked pitchers (particularly those who haven't thrown 200+ innings at the major league level before) to start to wear down in the summer heat. Matt Harrison, Ivan Nova, Tommy Milone and James McDonald stand out as potential guys who have thrown 120+ innings already (all ranked among the top 35 in MLB in innings pitched so far this year) without a proven history of 200+ inning seasons.

Bad bullpens tend to get worse in the hot summer months, before the September call-ups reinforce the corps. Teams like the Mets, Cardinals, Brewers and White Sox are all in playoff contention right now, despite continued bullpen struggles. They're all being priced like contenders here in the second half, but without bullpen reinforcements, they're all in danger of dropping out of the race. Over bettors love struggling bullpens and dog bettors love ‘false favorites’ that can’t hold late inning leads.

Bullpen statistics correlate very strongly with MLB profitability. Of the top eight teams in profits so far this season (the Pirates, A’s, Orioles, Nationals, Giants, Reds, Yankees and Dodgers), six of them rank in the top eight in bullpen ERA. And among the bottom feeders in terms of profitability, six of the worst seven performing teams have bullpens ranked among the bottom ten in the majors in ERA (the Phillies, Astros, Rockies, Brewers, Marlins and Cubs).

Bettors who do nothing but handicap bullpens can have a field day betting into lines that have starting pitching matchups as their basis for the moneylines. Remember, ‘capping bullpens requires legwork – you’ve got to watch the games, read the local papers and chart the bullpens while tracking who is ‘fresh’ on a daily basis. Computer generated algorithms don’t do this particular task very well, leaving a nice window of opportunity for bettors willing to put in the time.

Pitching Sabermetric stats are another thing that wiseguy bettors strongly consider for the second half. Non elite pitchers with very low BABIP's (guys who have been on the lucky side in the first half) are primed to decline; guys like James McDonald, Jason Vargas, Ryan Vogelsong and Edwin Jackson.

On the other hand, pitchers who have been more unlucky in the first half when it comes to the batting average on balls in play, (high BABIP's), are primed to show improvement. Pitchers like James Shields, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Adam Wainwright and Felix Hernandez all fit into this category as potential ‘bet-on’ hurlers.

FIP (fielding independent pitching) stats are another strong sabermetric tool to show what pitchers have overachieved and underachieved through the first half. Pitchers like Zack Grienke, Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez are poised to improve; Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero not so much.....

Last but not least, sharp bettors attack late season baseball by looking for and expecting teams to morph down the stretch. The 2011 MLB season had numerous classic ‘September morph’ situations, like the Red Sox 7-20 collapse and the Braves 9-18 debacle, the Rangers 19-6 surge, the Cardinals 18-8 push and the Tigers 20-6 domination. Sub .500 teams like Baltimore and KC finished September with winning records and big profits for their supporters.

Wiseguys pay attention, because not many others are! Remember, both moneylines and totals are influenced more by season long numbers than by current form and matchup or situational nuances. Follow those September morphs closely and you'll make money every year.

[poopoo333]

Tuesday's betting tips: Reds scorching hot without Votto

Weather to watch

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms could spoil a fantastic pitching matchup between Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg.

Who’s hot?

The Atlanta Braves have won five straight heading into Monday’s contest with the Marlins. Atlanta pitchers have held opponents to three runs or fewer in each of the club’s last five victories.

Who’s not?

The Kansas City Royals have lost five straight games and are 2-8 in their last 10 contests. The Royals begin a six-game home stand Tuesday when they host the Indians.

Key stat

.141 – Josh Hamilton’s batting average in July. The Rangers slugger entered the month at a .319 clip with 25 home runs. His four straight games played without a hit matches the second-longest such streak of his career.

Game of the day

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Carl Crawford – The Red Sox outfielder said he’ll decide in the next 7-10 days whether or not to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his ailing left elbow.

Betting notes

- Pirates right-hander pitcher Kevin Correia asked the team for a trade Sunday. Correia was bumped from the starting rotation last week when the Bucs acquired lefty Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros.

- Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expects left-hander Andy Pettitte (ankle) to return sometime in September and be available for the playoffs. Pettitte was initially projected to miss six weeks when he suffered the fracture on June 27.

-The Reds are 11-2 without star 1B Joey Votto, who is eligible to come off the disabled list Tuesday but has not yet resumed baseball activities.

- Third baseman Chris Johnson was the latest to escape Houston as he was dealt to Arizona for two minor leaguers Sunday. He became the sixth player traded by the Astros this month.

[poopoo333]

Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

STREAKING

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (9-6, 3.53 ERA)

Bailey is a major reason why the Reds are 17-2 since the All-Star break and riding a 10-game winning streak into Monday. The righty hasn’t taken a loss since June 27 and is 4-0 in his last five starts. The right-hander has a 1.43 ERA over five July starts and should continue to dominate in his next start against the lowly Padres.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (10-2, 2.71 ERA)

Lohse has emerged as the staff ace in the absence of Chris Carpenter. The 33-year-old hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last seven starts and owns a 2.36 ERA in July. The right-hander hasn’t taken a loss since June 15, and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. His next outing is on the road in Colorado.

SLUMPING

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (8-7, 4.52 ERA)

Shields continues to be the subject of trade rumors with the Tuesday deadline approaching. The Rays reportedly declined a trade offer for the big righty from the Angels on Thursday that would have sent speedy outfielder Peter Bourjos to Tampa Bay. Shields hasn’t responded well to the rumors, allowing 22 earned runs in 32 July innings. If Shields is still in a Rays’ uniform Tuesday, he’ll take the mound against the red-hot A’s.

Derek Lowe, Cleveland Indians (8-9, 5.09 ERA)

Since starting the season 6-1, Lowe is 2-8 with a 7.59 ERA over his last 12 starts. The sinker-baller has taken the loss in his last three outings, surrendering 16 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. With the Indians losing ground in the Wild Card race, manager Manny Acta is considering skipping Lowe’s next turn in the rotation if he doesn’t put together a strong performance against the Royals on Tuesday.

[poopoo333]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- Bailey is 4-0, 2.15 in his last five starts. Padres won last three Marquis starts (3-0, 4.91), scoring 22 runs.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Lohse is 4-0, 2.22 in his last seven starts. Francis is 1-0, 1.69 in his last three home starts.
-- Miley is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
-- Rookie Harvey didn't allow a run in 5.1 IP (106 PT) in his major league debut at Arizona last week.

-- Tillman is 2-0, 2.12 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 3-1, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Weaver is 7-0, 1.74 in his last seven starts. Holland is 2-1, 3.86 in his last four outings.
-- Milone has a 1.47 RA in his last five home starts.
-- Vargas is 4-0, 1.85 in his last six starts. Laffey is 2-0, 4.08 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lee is 1-3, 5.37 in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-3, 7.56 in his last three starts. Medlen was
-- Dempster is 0-2, 5.25 in his last couple starts, after his scoreless streak.
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 9.28 in his last couple starts. Keuchel is 0-3, 9.60 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano is 1-3, 7.04 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-3, 7.18 in five July starts.

-- Nova is 0-1, 5.09 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Lowe is 1-3, 9.23 in his last five starts. Hochevar is 0-1, 7.20 in his last three outings.
-- Liriano, who a Twin until this weekend, is 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts. Blackburn is 0-2, 9.45 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 0-2, 6.66 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won eight of its last nine games.
-- Reds' 10-game winning streak ended last night.
-- Braves won nine of their last eleven home games.
-- Padres are 16-10 in their last 26 games.
-- Cubs won ten of last 13 games at Wrigley.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.

-- Red Sox won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.
-- Minnesota won its last four games, scoring 35 runs. White Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- A's won 19 of their last 23 games. Tampa Bay is 6-4 in last ten on road.
-- Mariners won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Phillies lost their last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Pirates lost their last two games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Astros lost 27 of their last 30 games. Brewers lost nine of their last 11.
-- Rockies lost six of their last seven games. St Louis lost four of its last five games on foreign soil.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last ten road games.
-- Mets lost 14 of their last 18 games. San Francisco lost its last five games, outscored 32-12.

-- Bronx lost seven of its last ten games. Baltimore lost five of its last eight.
-- Detroit lost five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Angels are 3-8 in game following their last 11 wins.
-- Kansas City lost its last five games, allowing 32 runs. Indians lost their last three games, outscored 28-6.
-- Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Miami games stayed under.
-- 11 of last 16 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in Cubs' last fifteen games.
-- Over is 10-4 in Houston's last 14 games, 6-2 in Brewers' last eight.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Colorado games.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Arizona games.
-- Over is 15-7-2 in Mets' last 24 games, 9-4 in Giants' last 13.

-- Ten of last thirteen Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Detroit games.
-- 18 of last 24 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-2 in Kansas City's last nine games.
-- Eight of last nine Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last fourteen Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Under is 25-8 in last thirty-three Seattle games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Wash-- Don't know who the umpires is here.
-- Mia-Atl-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Drake games.
-- SD-Cin-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Marquez games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Home side won nine of last twelve Nelson games.
-- Hst-Mil-- Knight's last three games all went over the total.
-- StL-Col-- Don't know who umpires are here.
-- Az-LA-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Davis games.
-- NY-SF-- Last seven Miller games stayed under the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Seven of last nine Cousins games stayed under.
-- Det-Bos-- Six of last eight Layne games stayed under total.
-- LA-Tex-- Underdogs won six of last seven Reynolds games.
-- Cle-KC-- Don't know who umpires are here.
-- Chi-Min-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
-- TB-A's-- Underdogs won five of last six Hickox games.
-- Tor-Sea-- Four of last five Tichenor games went over total.

[poopoo333]

Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Oakland

The A's look to build on their 7-1 record in Tom Milone's last 8 home starts. Oakland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115). Here are all of today's picks.


TUESDAY, JULY 31
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.283; Washington (Strasburg) 16.064
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over


Game 953-954: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.930; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.422
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Under


Game 955-956: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 16.659; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.697
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over


Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.960; Cubs (Dempster) 15.581
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); N/A


Game 959-960: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.837; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.728
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+220); Over


Game 961-962: St. Louis at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.380; Colorado (Francis) 14.022
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under


Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.630; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.500
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under


Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 14.628; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.255
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over


Game 967-968: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.012; NY Yankees (Nova) 14.264
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Under


Game 969-970: Detroit at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.279; Boston (Beckett) 14.844
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over


Game 971-972: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.746; Texas (Holland) 14.339
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under


Game 973-974: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lowe) 13.500; Kansas City (Hochevar) 13.878
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over


Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Liriano) 14.569; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.973
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under


Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.669; Oakland (Milone) 16.710
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Over


Game 979-980: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Laffey) 15.595; Seattle (Vargas) 16.142
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Under

[poopoo333]

Joe Wiz Free Play

Under 10 1/2 St. Louis and Colorado

[poopoo333]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Yankees Monday.

Tuesday it’s the Braves. The deficit is 307 sirignanos.

Lost last three
16-5 in his last 21 picks

[poopoo333]

Hondo

The Dodgers’ Harang couldn’t be bothered with providing assistance to the Hondo Deficit-Reduction Plan last night, so the dirty digits ballooned to 1,645 madlocks.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will tee it up with the fab foursome of Strasburg, Burnett, Harvey and Verlander (over Slosh Beckett) – 10 units apiece on the Nats, Bucs, Bill Maher’s Mets and Tigers.

[poopoo333]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 878- 652 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Free play Tues: Pirates pk

[poopoo333]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Astros / Brewers over 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

TEXAS +105 over L.A. Angels
Jered Weaver has won seven straight games to run his record to 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA. However, we’re still not buying that he’s this good because the skills suggest otherwise. Weaver has pinpoint control (26 BB) and a decent strikeout rate of 89 k’s in 116 innings. However, he has a fly-ball bias profile and has been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. With a fly-ball bias profile, it’s no surprise that Weaver has posted an 11.15 ERA while losing his last three starts at this park. In 86 career innings here, covering 14 starts, Weaver has two wins, seven losses and a 5.31 ERA. His xERA of 3.71 is 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Weaver isn’t quite the dominant pitcher that his surface stats indicate and this park is testament to that.

Derek Holland has given up three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts since coming off the disabled list. The velocity in his fastball dropped from 94.1 MPH to 91 MPH before his DL stint (shoulder fatigue) but he’s picked it up again and could be in for a strong stretch run. Texas is still an offensive powerhouse while Jered Weaver is overvalued here.
TEXAS +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

[Mr. IWS]

Easy Baseball Betting

Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+167)

Padres (+161)

Phillies (+130)

Twins (+120)

Rangers (+106)

Indians (+111)

Astros (+222)

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

5* - Oakland A`s ML

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

DET (-130) @ BOS [4:10pm PDT]

PIT (-105) @ CHC [5:05pm PDT] <-bet 'action' not 'listed pitcher'

ARI @ LAD UNDER 7.5 (-125) [7:10pm PDT]

ARI @ LAD (-125) [7:10pm PDT]

BAL @ NYY OVER 9.5 (-110) [4:05pm PDT]

STL (-140) @ COL [5:40pm PDT]

TB @ OAK UNDER 7 (-120) [7:05pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

20 Dime STL. Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis -139 over COLORADO: St Louis had a day off to stew over losing 2 of 3 in Chicago. Yes they lost the last 2 in Chgicago, but the Cubs have played really well at home of late. Just ask Pittsburgh. After that series and the fact that Cincinnati just swept Colorado here this is a very big series for the Cards as they look for a return to the post season. The Rockies are just 20-32 in their own park this year, including just 2-9 in their last 11 here. Pitching for the Rockies have been a big problem for them as they come in with a 5.87 ERA in their last 10, while they have a 5.84 ERA in their home games on the year. A ****ty staff in this park does not add up to a lot of wins. Tonight Jeff Francis gets the call and while the Rockies are 3-1 in his home starts, he does have a 5.12 ERA in those starts. Making it tougher for him tonight is the fact that he will be facing a Cardinals team that averages 5.8 rpg vs lefties on the year and they have gone 19-11 vs them. The Rockies do average 5.73 rpg at home, but they have struggled of late, averaging just 3.5 rpg in their last 11 at Coors. It won't get easier for them tonight as they face Kyle Lohse, who has been very good for them this year. Kyle is 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA overall and 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA on the road. Kyle has faced the Rockies 4 times from 2010 till now and he has allowed just 5 ER's total in the four starts, while in his lone start here over that stretch he went won the game allowing just 2 ER's in 6 innings of work. The Rockies will play the roll of spoiler the rest of this year, but with their pitching they just won't be able to handle the roll. The need this one much more and clearly have the edge on the mound and should take game one here.

NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 6.5: Tim Lincecum has pitched pretty well of late and he does own a 3.90 ERA at home with those games averaging just 6.4 rpg, but he also has a 5.53 ERA at night and those games have averaged 9.79 rpg. He has pitched well vs the Mets in his career (1.09 ERA L5 Starts vs them), but will be taking on a team that has averaged 5.1 rpg away from home on the year. Vs righties on the road the Mets have hit .271 and have scored 5.6 rp/9 innings off of them. The Giant offense is not that great, but could be upgraded tonight after the trade deadline and they did show signs of breaking out last night, by pounding out 16 hits and 7 runs in the 8-7 loss. Matt Harvey has a great debut vs the D-Backs, but still this is just his second career start and he wasn't all that superb in the minors this year, so I look for a desperate Giants offense to get some hits and runs off of him. I don't expect either strter to go the distance here and that means the Pens come into play. The Mets have the worst pen ERA on the road (5.53), while the Giants pen has been knocked around of late with a 4.75 ERA in their last 10 games. Last night the pens combined to allow 9 ER's combined in the 8, 9th and 10th innings and we could see more of the same tonight. This game could flirt with double digits.

Detroit -125 over BOSTON: Google News Play Justin Verlander is one of the besat pitchers in baseball and he know how to bounce back from a tough outing. In his 4 starts following a game in which he has allowed 4 ER's or more he is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and if you include his outing the All-Star game then he has gone 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA following those tough outings. Verlander is also 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Sox. Josh Beckett has really struggled for Boston and he is 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA and he has gone 2-7 with a 5.27 ERA at night on the year. Boston is just 2-9 in his night starts. He is also 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 3 starts vs Detroit. The Sox have played well of late, but may be without Becket and Jarod S. for this one, plus Ortiz is out and Detroit needs a big win. With or without Beckett I like Detroit in this one.

Philadelphia/ Washington Over 6.5: Stephen Strasburg is coming close to his 160 inning pitch limit this year, so I don't see him going too deep in this one. That will give the ball over to a Nats pen that has a 4.74 ERA in it's last 10 games. Lets also note that in Stephens last 5 starts their pen has allowed 14 total runs once he has left the game. I Know the Phils offense has been struggling and they will be without Victorino and maybe Pence for this one, but they still have some pop ion their bats and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, including 4.1 rpg in games that Lee has started. Speaking of Lee, He may be traded by game time, but if he isn't he comes in with a 3.54 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA at night on the year. He has made 3 career starts in this park and has a 4.21 ERA in those starts. The Nationals have cranked it up offensively as they have averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They average just 4.1 rpg at home, but in their last 14 in this park they have cranked out 5.4 rpg. I know the Phils roster may look very different tonight, but even if Lee doesn't start, whoever does would still be a downgrade from him. The Phils should get 1 or two off of Strasburg and they get a few more once he is out of there. Look for at least 8 runs in this one.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

SAN FRANCISCO -145 over NY Mets: Google News Play

Miami/ Atlanta Under 8.5

1 UNIT PLAYS

Seattle/ Toronto Under 7

Chicago -145 over MINNESOTA

2 POWER ANGLES FOR TONIGHT (13-3 RUN) (22-11 +8.21 UNITS)

Since 2009 Toronto is 1-32 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had a least 4 wealks and did not hold a lead of 3+ runs in that game. Play on Seattle -122 over Toronto

Play on any team that averages 4.1 rpg or less with a starter that has a WHIP of 1.450 to 1.550 vs a team that has a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or higher. This play is 32-14 since 1997. Play On San Francisco -145 over NY Mets

***It was a rough night last night as I went 2-6 overall and 1-3 in my top plays. Ouch. That was my first losing night in over two weeks. Let's start another run today

[Mr. IWS]

Chase Diamond

50 Dime Boston Red Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy MLB


4-Unit Play Over 7 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Tuesday @ 10:10 pm est)


COMP (MLB):
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 (7:10PM EDT)

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

20 Dime MLB Winner #5 of 8

N.L. CENTRAL
GAME OF THE MONTH

Cubs

Free

Royals

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

400 MLB Winner #54 of 87

Underdog of the Month

Red Sox

Free

Nationals

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

40 Dime
Winner #6 of 9

A'S

Free

Brewers -1.5 RUNS

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney

60 Dime
Cheap Chalk Winner

The easiest game on the card!

Mariners
Free

Braves -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Tuesday

100* Play Milwaukee (-250) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

Houston has lost 19 of the last 21 road games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 21 of the last 24 games when playing in the month of July. Houston has lost 66 of the last 91 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 31 of the last 39 games when batting .240 or worse over the last twenty games.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

50* Play NY Yankees (-180) over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Cincinnati (-180) over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

30 Dime Run Line Shocker

Asros+1.5

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Most experts felt that the American League West would be a two-horse race
between the Los Angeles Angels (55-47) and the Texas Rangers (59-41) before
the season, and while Oakland is doing its best to crash the party, the
experts will probably be right in the end. To that end, the Angels entered this
series in third place and five games behind the division leading Rangers
while trailing the second-place Athletics by one-half game, so this series
appears to be more crucial for Los Angeles, which does not want to fall further
behind. The Angels certainly appear to have the pitching advantage when the
teams meet Tuesday night at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a
game that can be seen nationally on MLB Network.

The Halos were shut out over the weekend by the Tampa Bay Rays while
suffering tough losses by scores of 3-0 and 2-0 respectively, so to say that the
offense needs to wake up would be a gross understatement. The pitching
performances over the weekend were certainly encouraging though and that figures
to be the case again on Tuesday with a Cy Young Award candidate in Jered
Weaver on the mound. Weaver is personally a remarkable 13-1 with the Angels as a
team going 15-3 in the games that he has started, as he has an American
League leading 2.26 ERA to go along with a scintillating 0.95 WHIP over 115.2
innings! Weaver has not been striking out as many batters as of late as he
was earlier in the season, but he still has a fine ratio of 89 strikeouts vs.
26 walks and he has continued to get batters out, allowing two runs or less
in six of his seven starts since coming off of the Disabled List on June
20th. This stretch includes a brilliant start vs. these Rangers in Anaheim 10
days ago when allowed only one run and six hits in seven innings of a 6-1
Angels' victory. Weaver could be catching Texas at the perfect time too as it
is batting an uncharacteristic .233 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last
10 games heading into Monday's series opener, with even Josh Hamilton
starting to hear some boos from the usually supportive home crowd.

The Rangers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games overall entering Monday,
allowing the Angels and even the A's to hang around, and the only reason Texas
has four wins in that span is because the starting pitchers have a
collective 3.78 ERA. Tuesday starter Derek Holland got one of those wins last
Wednesday when he posted a Quality Start against the Red Sox, allowing three runs
on only five hits in 7.2 innings. Holland is having a very erratic season as
he is 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA, and he will need to be at his best vs. a pitcher
of Weaver's caliber for Texas to have a chance here. With that said Holland
is actually on a pretty good cycle right now as he has allowed three runs
or less in four of his last five starts. That is the good news, but the bad
news is that the one bad start in Holland's last five outings came vs. these
Angels, who roughed him up for six earned runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings
when also matched up with Weaver on July 20th. Furthermore, Holland has not
handled the wind tunnel blowing out in Arlington well as he has a bloated
5.94 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his home stadium. Yes, the Angels were held scoreless
on Saturday and Sunday, but they still rank second in the American League
behind these Rangers with a .269 team batting average.

The Angels as a team have gone 7-3 the last 10 times that Weaver has
started against Texas and the Halo lead the season series 5-4 so far in 2012,
although the Rangers won two of the three meetings in Arlington pending Monday's
result.

Pick: Under 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

First Look with Marco D'Angelo

San Diego/Cincinnati Under 8.5

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Tuesday 7/31/12 Plays...

4* BLUEJAYS/MARINERS (OVER)

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success-