UFC 151

[Cleveland]

Hello all!

Brand new to the forum. Thanks for the invite from Sherdog (IWS).

I use 5 dimes and the odds aren't out, but I wanted to see where everyone was at for 151.

The current card main card is:

Bones/Hendo
Heiron/Ellenburger
Siver/Yagin
Hallman/Tavares

Picks:
Outside of a miracle overhand, Bones should wrap this up in the first 2 rounds. Even if Bones was content to play at range, Hendo doesn't have the cardio to make any splashes beyond the second (based on the Shields fight). Also given the danger of Dan's one punch ability, I don't think Jon will toy with him like he did Rashad.

Heiron hasn't had a relevant win in since beating Jake back in 06' Jake is coming off a loss to the Hitman in a fight he was dominating until his suspect cardio kicked in. Heiron would become a nightmare if he could get out of the first round but I honestly don't see it.

Siver looked great against Nunes and is finally fighting in the right weight class. Even having said that, he was looking great at 155 until he ran into Cerrone. He's had problems with submissions in the past but there's nothing to worry about there with Yagin. Yagin is coming of the best win of his career, but Hominick has looked shot since the fight with Aldo so I'm not placing too much stake in that. If Mark had been more aggressive it's also possible that he could have closed the fight out in the third.

Thiago tends to fight to the level of his opponents which is a bit concerning, however Hallman has looked terrible at 155. Hallman's wrestling and veteran savvy have kept him relevant but the Ebersole fight really sticks out to me in looking at this one. Tavares has shown he's able to stay on his feet, went toe to toe with Stout coming out no worse for the wear and is a jiu-jitsu specialist. This fight is the least clear but still feels pretty safe.

Depending on lines, what is everyone's thoughts?

Is there anything that I've overlooked?

[Mr. IWS]

Glad to have ya man!

Im with you on Bones. I think he wins late 2nd early 3rd via some sort of choke.

[edman5555]

I think Bones takes it but his line is shit. Hendo has been landing that overhand right mostly because he has been getting into firefights with people. Hallman was injured for the Ebersole fight. I do think Tavares can win that one but like you said his fights are usually close. I wouldnt be suprised to see Hieron do alright. He can probably stop the takedown. He could theoretically outpoint Ellenberger. That said, I wouldn't want to bet against Ellenberger solely because of his power.

[SPX]

Sup, Cleveland? Welcome.

I would disagree that Jake was Hieron's last relevant win. What about Rick Hawn?

And while I favor Siver against Yagin, I certainly wouldn't say it's a lock. Say what you will about Hominick, but Yagin really gave him the business for two rounds and busted him the fuck up. I'll probably stay away from that fight.

[Cleveland]

Yeah the line on Jon really makes that almost a senseless play, especially given that Hendo is a live dog any time he wings that big right.

With Thiago I am always more worried about his fight IQ, he is so solid that it almost seems he's willing to just see if he can out man his opponent.

The juggernaut is a very fitting name, he can instigate the clinch and throw hooks with anyone, I think the Hitman fight was an exception not a rule.

Thanks for the thoughts!

[Cleveland]

I am hesitant on Hawn, Heiron is the best competition he's fought. The judo credentials are legit, but I still haven't really seen him in with a great striker.

Heiron may have gotten away with one in the Weedman fight and Hawn brought it.

Yagin really surprised me in the Hominick fight. I'm still worried it says more about where Hominick is at this point. Even in a fight he was clearly winning, he still ended up gassed and Siver can really push the pace. I think I'm going to try to find some more Yagin fights and see if the low hooks are a trademark.

[SPX]

I am hesitant on Hawn, Heiron is the best competition he's fought. The judo credentials are legit, but I still haven't really seen him in with a great striker.


Lyman Good is a pretty good striker. I think Hawn is legit. I'm not sure how he would do in the UFC, but I respect his abilities. He's an excellent grappler who seems to have really taken to the striking game.



Yagin really surprised me in the Hominick fight. I'm still worried it says more about where Hominick is at this point. Even in a fight he was clearly winning, he still ended up gassed and Siver can really push the pace. I think I'm going to try to find some more Yagin fights and see if the low hooks are a trademark.

Time will tell on Hominick. You can't blame him for losing to Aldo and the KZ fight was way too short to really have gotten much data from. Really, the Yagin fight is the wild card here. Was Hominick not on his A game or is Yagin that good?

[poopoo333]

As awesome as it would be to see Henderson beat Jones, I just don't see it happening. I'm in agreement with you there.

I'm going to need to look at Hieron here, but I don't think it's going to be as much of a mismatch as you think.

As for Yagin/Siver, I don't know. Siver is usually in pretty close kickboxing fights and it makes his fights hard to predict.

I think Hallman will beat Tavares in an ugly fight

[poopoo333]

Been looking at Hieron. I don't believe Ellenberger will be able to outwrestle Hieron to clearly win the fight. I also think the striking will be a little close with slight edge to Ellenberger, however, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting Hieron in a striking match as he has a tendency to get tagged and does not have the best chin imo. Ellenberger hits hard, but he does lose steam after about a round and a half, so I can see Hieron making it a very close fight. It's a hard fight to predict, but I think Hieron would not be a bad bet around +200. I also think Ellenberg (T)KO prop would be worth a stab at as well.

I didn't see Hieron/Askren, but didn't Hieron show great T3D against one of the best wrestlers in MMA? If so, Ellenberger shouldn't be able to get the fight down

[Cleveland]

I'm a Hominick fan so it breaks my heart, I'm really hoping he can put it back together though.

[Cleveland]

Askren really doesn't transition well with his strikes and Jake's kill shots should make anyone blink.

I'm not sold that Jake is looking to use his wrestling for anything more than a ploy to get opponents to drop there hands so he can swing bombs. His cardio doesn't seem like it would lend itself well to a drawn out fight even if he was on top.

I'm definitely interested in the Hallman pick, I'm going to watch his recent fights again.

[poopoo333]

Yagin is +560 on some foreign book apparently. That obviously won't hold/be available to us.


I honestly don't see any fights that really stick out to me on this card:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

Champ Jon Jones vs. Dan Henderson (for light-heavyweight title)
Jake Ellenberger vs. Jay Hieron
Dennis Siver vs. Eddie Yagin
Dennis Hallman vs. Thiago Tavares
John Lineker vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson
Jeff Hougland vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Tim Means vs. Abel Trujillo
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 7 p.m. ET)

Shane Roller vs. Jacob Volkmann
Charlie Brenneman vs. Kyle Noke

[poopoo333]

Then again, I haven't looked at the prelims yet.

Hougland and Mizugaki will be close imo, Mizugaki may be overvalued.

Michael Johnson has been improving with every fight (one of the only blackzilians to do this) and I expect him to do pretty good against Castillo, althought Castillo can definitely put him on his back.

Tim Means is a long, rangy, violent guy..but I don't know who Trujillo is yet. Apparently he is one of those NAIA wrestling champs but I haven't seen him fight yet.

Henry Martinez let me down last time I bet on him. He won, but I expected him to dominate the striking and he kept it very close, almost as if he was fighting down to his opponent. Not sure how he matches up with Cruickshank yet, as I've never really seen Cruickshank fight much.

Volkmann will probably beat Roller. I don't think the "wrestling will cancel each other out"...I think Volkmann is a better wrestler in MMA than Roller and will be able to take him down.

I pick Brenneman for every fight, so war Brenneman

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/551.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

however Hallman has looked terrible at 155.


He has only fought once at 155 (kind of, he missed weight by 2 lbs I think) and he won in a bit less than 3 minutes.

[SPX]

Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."

He probably had a brainfart and thought Hallman has been fighting at 155 for awhile.



Regardless, Hallman at the current odds looks nice. Watching the line to see if it gets better. Won't go big on it though

[poopoo333]

Any chance of Hendo making it to the bell? Jones ITD is -350, may as well lay that instead of -700.


I am leaning a Hettes/Jones (or Jones ITD) parlay. EDIT: Disregard that, Hettes is on UFC 152. Whoops

[zY|]

Any chance of Hendo making it to the bell? Jones ITD is -350, may as well lay that instead of -700.


I am leaning a Hettes/Jones (or Jones ITD) parlay. EDIT: Disregard that, Hettes is on UFC 152. Whoops

I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.

[poopoo333]

I wouldn't count on Jones ITD. Hendo is a tough out, regardless, but if Jones effectively controls the distance like he should, he'll realize there isn't much Dan Right Handerson is going to be able to do, and could easily just coast on him with jabs and smashing his legs with kicks.

I played Jones ITD straight, but I can hedge it a bit with Jones decision +600. I think Jones will be able to get Hendo down and work from there, not sure if he is going to just stand on the outside and strike (although if he did he would still win easy)

[SPX]

Jones via decision is +600?

That's retarded.

[Cleveland]

Yeah, I was gonna say, he pretty much raped Makdessi. Not sure how that constitutes "looking terrible."

I was referring to having missed weight and looking completely drawn out.

A 36 year old wrestler is exactly the type of fighter who won't try to cut weight responsibly. Wrestlers love to push the envelope and father time just isn't on his side, he wasn't a small WW, I'm not sure maxing out at 155 is going to be to his benefit.

Dropping a weight class this late into your career also outdoes a lot of the veteran knowledge he had built based on his experience. He'll have less strength now, it will adversely effect his cardio and he'll have to adjust to the typically faster and better gassed 155ers.

I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.

[poopoo333]

^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi

[Cleveland]

I played Jones ITD straight, but I can hedge it a bit with Jones decision +600. I think Jones will be able to get Hendo down and work from there, not sure if he is going to just stand on the outside and strike (although if he did he would still win easy)

100 year old Hendo's cardio has to be a concern for everyone, especially against someone who isn't going to stand in front of him.

The ITD odds are terrible, but I can actually understand them.

Jon was content to toy with Rashad and if he can can stay outside everyone's range as he continues to develop his striking, he may take a page from the Spider. Given the noddle arms and the odd chokes he can pull off with them, I'm also not convinced a shorter fighter like Dan would be wise to try to tie him up.

[MMA_scientist]

Depending on lines, what is everyone's thoughts?

Is there anything that I've overlooked?

You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.

[Cleveland]

^^agreed. Hallman may not have that much of a strength issue at 155, he is on TRT. I really just have a habit of liking decent sized underdogs that have the gameplan of taking a guy down and holding him there. Even if he doesn't do it effectively to win rounds in our eyes, there are many times where judges give it to the wrestler.

The Makdessi fight is nothing to take stake into at all. To this day I still have no fucking clue why Hallman was the underdog to Makdessi

TRT has to be the biggest black eye on MMA no?

I meant to mention that in what will likely be his attempt to max out. TRT helps with developing and maintaining muscle, I really expect Hallman to keep as much weight on as possible, it's really the only advantage a guy like him would have by jumping down.

I really like your point though, North American MMA is built on "control." It's my biggest apprehension on the fight. However, I look to the Pellegrino and Griffin fights as my benchmark to Thiago's ability to negotiate some high level wrestling/grappling and he's really fared well.

I feel I should disclose that I bet exclusively on the most likely result and more or less ignore the lines, I'm a parlay guy (unless it's a -700 like Jones lol). I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack) and the same again adding Saffadine (I was worried about bowling's one punch power)

I'm really glad I was given the invite, you guys all seem to have some excellent insight and pay attention to the details.

[poopoo333]

I cleaned up this weekend on a Parlay for Ronda, Jacare, OSP and Tate (she was giving me a heart attack)

Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.

[Cleveland]

You have all the (likely) favorites winning, and that is how I see it too. Jones will win barring a miracle. Yagin is toast, that is the fight I feel most confident in. Yagin is a brawler and he took the fight to Hominick, but Siver will smash him if he tries that here. I like Tavares to beat Siver. Tavares has pretty good takedowns of his own, and better hands. Also, he won't gas out.

Ellenberger should be way too much for Hieron. Hieron is decent, but just does not have the physical power that Ellenberger has. I wouldn't bet Ellenberger as a big favorite personally, because this is probably going to be a kickboxing match, but he is going to win.

Welcome to the worst forum on the internet.

I also really like the Siver matchup, it seems people have turned on him post Cerrone, but with a win he was a fight out of the title picture and was always going to be insanely undersized at 155.

I think you meant Hallman, if so I agree that he has the grappling to neutralize Hallman (his jiu jitsu is overlooked as he's turned into a kick boxer of late) but I really think his conditioning will play a factor.

I was never a Heiron fan, so I may be falling to some bias, but Jake just needs to find the chin (a suspect one in Jay no less) and you're in trouble. I will be holding my breath if it makes it to the third, but I also think Jake knows what he lost in the Hitman fight. A caged animal is the best bet in my opinion.

[Cleveland]

Yeah, I had parlays involving them as well. I just about lost it when Tate got dropped with a head kick, thought I just flushed 10 units down the drain.


Back to Hallman/Tavares...yeah, I really think Tavares should be the favorite. He was able to negate Griffin/Pellegrino like you mentioned as well as Lentz. He has some crisp striking as well. I wouldn't bet Tavares at the line based on Hallman's "grappler value" but I wouldn't bet Hallman right now as well. I'd put a small bet on Hallman at around +200 though.

Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)

[poopoo333]

I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I meant Hallman.

I might be over-rating Hieron due to his wins in Bellator. But I agree with SPX that Hawn is pretty good, and would likely beat a lot of UFC WW's (though I actually think Hawn could have been given the Nod in that fight). Ellenberger is a beast though, and there is no real reason why Hieron should be able to beat him (unless he can do the same thing Kampmann did, which he probably can't.) It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.

[poopoo333]

Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

Depends on the person. Some people take a % of their bankroll and label it as their unit (for example, some people would use 2% of their bankroll as a unit), and some people just decide to use a certain amount of money as their unit. It is just easier to track. I think somebody has asked this before and Scientist gave a pretty good explanation.

[poopoo333]

It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/5859.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[MMA_scientist]

Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)

a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.

Now my standard spiel on bankroll management: It is probably more important to your overall success long term than being able to pick winners. If you overbet your bankroll, you will be on the sidelines in no time. It feels great to win big chunks, but we all hit rough spots, and you will too. You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.

Ok, off to ignore my own advice now.

[MMA_scientist]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/5859.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

was that already out or did I just guess it?

As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.

[poopoo333]

was that already out or did I just guess it?

As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.

It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.

[MMA_scientist]

I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...

[Cleveland]

I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.

Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.

Jake has shown he's gunning to hurt you and will go full berserker if he smells blood. It will likely always be his undoing as you can't unlearn a killer instinct. I still think if he hurts Jay early that it may help wear down enough cardio that even in 3 rounds he still should have an edge.

[poopoo333]

I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...

I have been taking it a bit more seriously as well lately. Right now I have a browser opened up with every UFC until UFC 155 from UFC 151 and am in the process of looking at all the fights/breaking them down/typing shit on a word document. Also have ONE FC and the upcoming Bellator wikis up as well. I am almost done with 152. Then I will go to Bellator, 151, and ONE FC in that order.

[MMA_scientist]

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...

[poopoo333]

Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.


See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver

[poopoo333]

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...

I'm not gonna copy/paste but I plan on posting my little breakdowns on each fight.

And you should do the work too, then we can see where we are missing things and stuff.

[MMA_scientist]

Poopoo, that sounds like a lot of work. Why would you listen to anyone else right now anyway, youre on fire lately

[Cleveland]

a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.
.

Awesome, thank you both.

So I started with $50 and have been typically doing $5 at a time (I put $20 on my SF parlay this weekend because I was really sold). I'm close to $120 up after two events.

The whole point for me in this was to really have some fun but also turn my obsession (MMA) into maybe some free money.

I'm not always a favourites guy either. I already have a straight up bet on Belcher and got E. Silva and Hendricks at even for an upcoming parlay.

I expect to take a few losses, but as I've held off this long on betting, I'm still steadfast in not letting lines get me. I also won't bet on fighters I'm a fan of.

[poopoo333]

got E. Silva

Fuck you.



Banned.

[Cleveland]

See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver

I felt Siver was more effective through the fight, I was actually shocked at how many people disputed the fight. As per the earlier comment, unsuccessful grappling also really seems to effect judging negatively. I also liked that Siver seemed to be able to get back up without much trouble and stayed off the choke.

Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.

I know the weight cut hurt Kenny, but Siver was just as effective against Nunes. I really think he will make a splash at 145 before he inevitably gets crushed by Aldo or Mendes.

[MMA_scientist]

With that amount at stake, it is not that important... but it helps everyone else keep track of your actual handicapping ability, rather than focus on your lunch montey bankroll. It doesnt y matow you divide it, but helps us keep track of how your doing, so i can decide if i should just tail you instead of following my own losing instincts.

[Cleveland]

Fuck you.



Banned.

I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?

[poopoo333]

I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

[MMA_scientist]

Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.
es.
I dont think he is saying what you are saying... 30-28 means there was a 10-10 rd

[MMA_scientist]

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

We generally run everyone off with our bad personalities. I was trying something new and just hoping zak's new recruits didnt read anything in ot or sny old thread

[Cleveland]

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

I feel included!

I will just give my two cents.

The Penn fight told me the new leaner Fitch (apparently doesn't cut much weight now) has lost the edge his complete lack of athleticism was hiding.

Erick showed no issue with keeping Brennaman off and that guy can light up anyone on the feet. There's more than enough tape out there on Fitch at this point and Erick has gotten better with every fight. I also don't know how hungry a guy like Fitch can be knowing he will literally never get back to a title shot.

[poopoo333]

Cleveland, how old are you?

[Cleveland]

25

[SPX]

I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.

I'm certainly not going to argue that Makdessi is any kind of great wrestler, but I really think this was a case of Hallman really bringing his A game. Makdessi's wrestling has been fine in all his other UFC fights. It's not like he has a history of getting taken down easily by just anyone.

[MMA_scientist]

I didn't realize Hieron already fought and beat Ellenberger. Poopoo... video. Make it happen.

[poopoo333]

Can't find the vid

[SPX]

You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.


That's the truth. It's been a while since I last had a really bad swing, but I can usually count on at least one a year. I remember I once went from something like 15u ahead to 15u in the hole for the year in like a month and a half. It was gay.




I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.

Fuck yeah! You can't find it online, though. But I do have it in a Word doc.

Though this is easier:

http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where-and-how-to-bet-mma-now.mma

[SPX]

It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.

Maybe I'll start doing breakdowns again. I stopped because no one seemed to give a shit. I wasn't going to waste my time if no one was going to respond.

[SPX]

I also won't bet on fighters I'm a fan of.

Why is that?

[SPX]

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.


Yeah, Cleveland. You're such a douche.

[SPX]

We generally run everyone off with our bad personalities. I was trying something new and just hoping zak's new recruits didnt read anything in ot or sny old thread

My boy Taekwonpro seems to have already abandoned us. Then again, y'all were doing a shitty job of respond to anything he posted. . .

[Mr. IWS]

My boy Taekwonpro seems to have already abandoned us. Then again, y'all were doing a shitty job of respond to anything he posted. . .

I saw he posted, I welcomed him, just didnt reply cause I didnt have anything to add.

[SPX]

I saw he posted, I welcomed him, just didnt reply cause I didnt have anything to add.

Yeah, you were the only one, other than myself of course. He also posted something in the chat, saying he didn't know how betting works, and was ignored.

Hopefully he'll come back around, though. He's a cool dude.

[MMA_scientist]

I basically only read the OT thread any more. Sometimes I make a guest appearance in event threads. But he posted in the TMA thread. I didn't have anything nice to say, so I just didn't.

[Luke]

Maybe I'll start doing breakdowns again. I stopped because no one seemed to give a shit. I wasn't going to waste my time if no one was going to respond.


+1

[SPX]

But he posted in the TMA thread. I didn't have anything nice to say, so I just didn't.

Well he also posted in the Cro Cop thread.

I take it you didn't care for his TKD videos?

[MMA_scientist]

Well he also posted in the Cro Cop thread.

I take it you didn't care for his TKD videos?

Out of all the vids you and ludo have posted in there, I think I have only watched 1. It is not that I don't care, it is just that I really don't care.

I would be very interested in a TKD vid of SPX himself doing some TKD, but have about as much interest in your TKD vids as you probably would have if I started posting a bunch of old grappling matches of people you have never heard of... that is, you wouldn't care at all.

[SPX]

I would be very interested in a TKD vid of SPX himself doing some TKD, but have about as much interest in your TKD vids as you probably would have if I started posting a bunch of old grappling matches of people you have never heard of... that is, you wouldn't care at all.

Fair enough. Maybe I should grab a video of myself throwing some kicks or something. BOL.

But for real, if you are really that disinterested in standup arts, then why do you even bother watching MMA? Why not just watch only grappling stuff?

[MMA_scientist]

Fair enough. Maybe I should grab a video of myself throwing some kicks or something. BOL.

But for real, if you are really that disinterested in standup arts, then why do you even bother watching MMA? Why not just watch only grappling stuff?

I like watching standup. We've been though this. I wouldn't watch a random grappling match if you posted it either. It is more that if you posted something super awesome or different, I would watch it. But I don't care to watch a bunch of random matches. Same with grappling, I don't sit around watching grappling either unless I am looking for something very specific.

[SPX]

Well I only post shit that I think is cool for some reason.

[zY|]

It is not that I don't care, it is just that I really don't care.

BOL

Apathy level - maximum

[poopoo333]

@kennyflorian (https://twitter.com/kennyflorian): Hearing that we may have some disappointed @UFC (https://twitter.com/UFC) fans soon due to some unfortunate circumstances for an upcoming card.



The rumor is @DanHendo (https://twitter.com/DanHendo) is injured and out of his fight next week with @jonnybones (https://twitter.com/jonnybones). I hope it's not true guys.


uh oh. Call Chris Leben.

[SPX]

If that's true then it is gay fucking fuck.

[poopoo333]

haha

UFC 151: Twitter Goes Crazy But Dan Henderson Tweets He's Feeling Fine (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/8/23/3262148/ufc-151-dan-henderson-injury-rumors-twitter-jon-jones)
Dan Henderson wants that money

[poopoo333]

Someone described the brace Hendo is wearing as a "Stone Cold Steve Austin brace".


Rumor going around Hendo was injured by Thierry Sokoudjou at some point in this camp. Appears he'll press on.. if he has to crawl to cage.


translated, Hendo's BJJ coach says "bad day, and with a really tough decision to be made" .. tweeted 14 hours ago

....

[SPX]

If Hendo really is injured then it would suck for him to just throw away his title shot. If he's going to have a chance to beat Jones then he needs to be 100%, and at his age it might be the last title shot of his career.

[Ludo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T1MAj4mLZvU#t=57s

[poopoo333]

When do the prelims start?

[zY|]

Stream?

[poopoo333]

Scientist, post event thoughts?

[Ludo]

didntwatch.gif

[Ludo]

BonesJones
Thanks to the old man and his knee I don't either “@AaronDKuehn: Thanks to @JonnyBones I have no plans tonight....”

Such a douchebag.

[Luke]

How did everyone end up last night, missed the event .

[Mr. IWS]

I picked up a unit on GSP

[mike]

lol guys.
i watched the boxing match on HBO. it was awesome.

[SPX]

BonesJones
Thanks to the old man and his knee I don't either “@AaronDKuehn: Thanks to @JonnyBones I have no plans tonight....”

Such a douchebag.


It's funny how he tried to go the GSP route early on and be super-polite and professional but it totally backfired on him. It's interesting how fans buy it with some fighters and they just don't with others.

[mike]

It's funny how he tried to go the GSP route early on and be super-polite and professional but it totally backfired on him. It's interesting how fans buy it with some fighters and they just don't with others.

bc like Evans said, Jones is a fake LOL

[SPX]

Damn, Sokoudjou. . . You can't even do that right, can you son?



"For Dan Henderson, it's the last 30 seconds of the last round on the last day of sparring and (Rameau Thierry) Sokoudjou goes to (expletive) throw him like a Judo (http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/real-murderer-ufc-151-sokodjou-2203795/#) throw and pops his knee out. It was almost over. What are you getting out of the last 30 seconds and he goes to throwing him in some crazy judo throw and pops Dan's knee out. It just one of those things," White said.