8-28-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Oakland -114 over CLEVELAND
Dead team playing. That’s about the only way to describe the Indians these days, as they come to the park everyday looking more lifeless than the day before. The Tribe was shutout in the opener last night 3-0. They’ve failed to score in 36 of their past 39 innings. They’ve lost 11 of 12 and they’re hitting a league worst .201 against lefties since the break while hitting a puny .214 over their past dozen games. Cleveland players have struck out 10 times per game in three of their past four contests. They haven’t won two games in a row since July 22-23 and they’re 0-8-1 in their past nine series.

By contrast, the A’s are heating up again. They’ve now won nine of 11 and that includes a 4-0 mark over Cleveland during this current run.

Tommy Milone is a lefty facing an Indians team that has 14 wins in 41 games this season against southpaws. Milone has just 30 walks all year in 153 innings meaning the Indians are going to have to hit their way on base. With the bases empty, Milone has one of the best BAA in the game at .176. He’s not as good out of the stretch but he’s improved with runners on base each passing month. No matter how you cut it, this is a small spot for a fighting team facing one that has tossed in the towel.

Seattle +124 over MINNESOTA
The more we see of Hisashi Iwakuma, the more we like him. What most will see is his 5.63 road ERA and 4-3 overall record with a 3.64 ERA. On June 20th, Iwakuma’s ERA was 5.06. He’s trimmed almost 1½-runs off his ERA since then and the results come with full skills support. Iwakuma has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. On July 30, he struck out 13 in a game. His xERA since joining the Mariners rotation is 3.16. This is a talented pitcher with soaring confidence.

Scott Diamond is 10-5 with an ERA of 3.04, thus creating this overlay. Diamond's command of the strike zone and his groundball lean are highlights of a solid profile but his pedestrian strikeout rate turns him into a pedestrian starter and the league is catching on. He’s allowed 37 hits over his past 29 frames and the Twins have lost his last three starts. In Seattle two starts back, Diamond allowed nine hits in six frames. His low ERA has held up due to a high strand percentage of 80%. Once that normalizes, it will not hold up.

Since losing their first meeting this season with the Twins, the Mariners have outscored Minnesota 26-8 while winning the next six. Minnesota has just two wins over its last 13 games while the Mariners have won nine of 13. Current form of both the starters and teams favor the M’s but price does not reflect that, giving us plenty of incentive to step in.He’s trimmed almost 1½-runs off his ERA since then and the results come with full skills support. Iwakuma has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. On July 30, he struck out 13 in a game. His xERA since joining the Mariners rotation is 3.16. This is a talented pitcher with soaring confidence.

Scott Diamond is 10-5 with an ERA of 3.04, thus creating this overlay. Diamond's command of the strike zone and his groundball lean are highlights of a solid profile but his pedestrian strikeout rate turns him into a pedestrian starter and the league is catching on. He’s allowed 37 hits over his past 29 frames and the Twins have lost his last three starts. In Seattle two starts back, Diamond allowed nine hits in six frames. His low ERA has held up due to a high strand percentage of 80%. Once that normalizes, it will not hold up.

Since losing their first meeting this season with the Twins, the Mariners have outscored Minnesota 26-8 while winning the next six. Minnesota has just two wins over its last 13 games while the Mariners have won nine of 13. Current form of both the starters and teams favor the M’s but price does not reflect that, giving us plenty of incentive to step in.

PHILADELPHIA -1½ +146 over N.Y. Mets
The Mets last seven games have come against the inept pitching staffs of the Astros and Rockies. NY scored two or less in six of those games and scored three runs in the other game. New York has scored a paltry 15 runs over their past nine games.

Chris Young pitching at this venue is a recipe for disaster. Young’s extreme fly ball tendency (58%), low strikeout rate and high xERA of 5.17 all indicate trouble and he’ll now face a streaking Phillies club that has won five in a row, seven of nine and just swept the Nationals.

Vance Worley’s 6-9 record is no match for last year's 11-3 full season record but he's very much the same pitcher. In fact, he’s inducing a lot more grounders but an unlucky and low 69% strand rate has his ERA inflated. Facing a Mets team that has fallen off the map since the all-star break and whose offense is scoring less than a pro soccer team, Worley and the Phillies should expect this run to be extended here. Expect a crooked number against Chris Young

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Rangers -130
50* Twins -130

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 8/28

5* Cincinnati Reds ML -111

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron

20,000 Unit Move

Oakland Athletics -115 over Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

Analyzer

Blue Jays / Yankees Over

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

15 Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Cleveland/ Oakland Under 8: Cleveland is a team with many offensive problems right now as they come in averaging just 2 rpg in their last 10 games and they have hit just .207 over that stretch as well. The Indians has also struggled vs lefties at home, hitting just .211 and scoring just 3.3 rp/9 off of them at home. All of that bodes well for Tommy Milone, who has struggled on the road with a 5.77 ERA on the year. He has pitched better of late on the road with a 3.78 ERA in his last 4 away from home. The Oakland offense has not been that good of late averaging 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games, but really when your staff has an ERA of 2.45 over that stretch you don't need to be all that good offensively. Oakland has gone 4-1 in those last 5 games and just 5.8 rpg have been scored. The A's offense will take on Zach McCallister, who has pitched very well at home with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, so I don't expect allot of runs from the A's in this one. These two starters faced each other earlier in the month and 10 runs were scored in that game, but I expect them to make the adjustments vs a couple of struggling offenses. Look for no more than 6 runs in this one.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

PHILADELPHIA -140 over NY Mets: I guess all it took for the Phils to start winning was to get rid of Victorino and Pence. LOL When I did my preview in the beginning of the year I felt that even with the injuries to the big players that the Phils would be fine, because of their awesome farm system. It didn't happen as planned earlier in the year, but youngsters Frandsen and Kratz are playing well and now with Utley and Howard starting to turn it on the Phils are winning. I expect them to finish the season strong as they look to build momentum for next year. They will not roll over because they are out of the playoffs. The Phils are off an excellent week in which they took 2 of 3 from the Reds and then swept the Nats. Now they get to take on a Mets team that is really struggling, winning just 6 of their last 20 games, with two of those wins coming vs lowly Houston. The Mets are having a hard time scoring of late as they have put up 2 runs or less in 8 of their last 9 games and it may not get much better in this series vs a Philadelphia team that has a 2.87 ERA in their last 10 games. Vance Worley has struggled this year and is just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA, but he is off an impressive start vs the Reds and should be able to keep the Met bats quiet tonight. Chris Young has had 2 solid outings in a row, but is still 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Mets have given him just 2 total runs in his last 3 starts. Both teams are out of the playoff race, but Philly hasn't stopped playing hard while the Mets have and that gives the Phils a huge edge here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Philadelphia is 16-5 in the first game of a home series if they are off two wins in a row in which they never trailed.

Atlanta -155 over SAN DIEGO: The Best pitcher on the Braves staff these days is... Kris Medlen. This kid has been awesome since being put in the rotation as he is 5-0 with an 0.86 ERA in his 5 starts. One of those starts was a complete game 6-0 shutout over these Padres. Kris is 2-0 with an 0.67 ERA in two road starts and now he gets to face a San Diego squad that struggles to score in their own park, especially vs righties. The Padres average 3.5 rpg and hit .234 overall at home but vs righties they have averaged 3.3 rp/9 innings and have hit just .227. Not going to get it done vs Medlen tonight, who hasn't allowed more than 1 ER in any of his 5 starts. Andrew Werner had a great 1st career start in which he allowed just 2 ER's vs Pittsburgh, but this Braves team can hit and will be angry after getting shutout last night. Atlanta scores 4.6 rpg on the road and 4.3 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, plus they have averaged a very solid 6.6 rpg in Medlen's 5 starts this year. Look for the Braves offense to wake up here and for Kris Medlen to have another solid outing as Atlanta bounces back from last night's tough loss.

Cincinnati/ Arizona Under 8: Last night just 5 runs were score and with much weaker pitching than we will see tonight. Johnny Cueto has been awesome for the reds this year with a 2.46 ERA overall and a 2.64 ERA on the road. He did have a couple of shaky outings, but has bounced back with a solid 1.71 ERA and an 0.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Johnny has also pitched well vs the D-Backs in hs career, posting a 1.45 ERA in 5 career starts vs them and in an earlier start vs them this year he allowed 0 ER's in 6 innings of work. Jphnny is catching the D-Backs at the right time for a good outing, as Arizona comes in averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 games (all at home) and have scored more than 3 runs in 2 of those 8 games. I see that trend continuing here. Wade Miley has been Arizona's most consistent starter and he comes in with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.78 ERA at home. Wade has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he should have another good outing vs a Reds team that scores just 4 rpg on the road and has put up just 3 runs in each of their last 3 away from home. Johnny's road starts have averaged just 5.8 rpg and his night starts have aveaged just 6.7 rpg. Wade's home starts have averaged 8.4 rpg, but his last 3 at home have averaged just 6 rpg, while his night starts have put up 7.5 rpg. This has the makings of a classic pitcher's duel.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Tampa Bay/ Texas Over 9

San Fran/ Houston Under 7.5

LA Dodgers/ Colorado Over 10.5

1 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/ Angels Over 7

Chicago -144 over BALTIMORE

2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (46-24 +14.92 UNITS)

Since 2010 the Brewers are 47-12 as a favorite of 140+ vs a divisional team that is below them in the standings.
Play on Milwaukee -167 over Chicago

Since 2010 the Under is 29-9 in a Phils game when they did not allow a walk in their last game and had less than 13 hits. Play on Philadelphia/ New York Under 8.5

***Overall was a mediocre day but i did go 3-0-1 in my top plays. Some times the breaks do go your way and by getting 7 runs by the Rockies in the 8th I got a big break with my 4 unit total play and squeezed a push out of it. Im now 25-8-1 the last 4 days overall and 12-1-1 in my top plays the last 3 day.

[Mr. IWS]

Stat Picks

1* Detroit, St. Louis, San Francisco, Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - BREWERS -1.5 (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Gallardo vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.10 units to win 2.00 units)

Milwaukee took the first game of the series last night by a score of 15-4. The victory moves Milwaukee to 60-67 on the season and 22-39 on the road. The Cubs are now 49-78 on the year and 32-30 at home. Brewers Ace Yovani Gallardo will take the mound tonight and he is 13-8 on the season with a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .240 opponents batting average. Over 4 August starts he is 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average. His last start was at home against the Cubs where he went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 2 earned runs while striking out 9. Travis Wood will be on the rubber tonight for the Cubs and he is 4-10 on the year with a 4.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .244 opponents batting average. His numbers are higher at home with a 2-4 record and 5.17 ERA at Wrigley. Wood was solid pre All Star, but since the All Star break is 0-7 with a 7.09 ERA in 8 starts. his last start came in Milwaukee (vs Gallardo) where he went 7 innings giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs in the loss. The Brewers enter tonight winners of 6 of their last 7 games, where they have scored 5+ runs in 5 of those 7. Chicago is just 2-6 in their last 8 games which included being swept in Milwaukee. Take note that the Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 divisional games, 5-0 in Gallardo's lsat 5 starts, 5-2 in his lsat 7 starts, and 36-15 in his last 51 starts vs a team with a losing record. The Cubs are just 6-20 in their last 26 games overall, 6-13 in their last 19 games following a loss, 0-8 in Wood's last 8 starts, and 0-4 in Wood's last 4 starts as a home underdog. The Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago, 19-7 in their last 26 meetings overall, and 7-2 in Gallardo's last 9 starts vs the Cubbies. The Brewers have been scoring a lot of runs lately and have a much more dangerous line up than the Cubs do right now. With Gallardo dealing lately I like the Brewers to win by a handful of runs and will take them on the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O Brien

60 Dime Winner5-6
Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

50 Dime AL Mismatch #3-#4

TB Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

400 Al GOM Rangers

200 Underdog Shocker Cubs

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

30 Dime Run Line Wipeout

Washington Nationals rl

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

50 Dime Division Rivalry Lock

St Louis Cards

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

300,000 Road Warrior Lock

Reds

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Earnest

Cincinnati Reds -112 over Arizona D'Backs
This play tonight is all about backing Johnny Cueto. Cueto has had an exceptional season thus far and is currently 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA. Cincinnati is 18-8 as a team when Cueto gets the start. In his 26 starts this season Cueto has given up 2 earned runs or less 18 times. Cueto has had success against Arizona already this season. Back on 7/17 Cueto pitched 6 innings of 4 hit, 0 earned run ball. The Reds beat Arizona by 4 runs in that game. Cueto's lifetime stats against Arizona have been impressive as well. He is 4-0 lifetime against the D'backs with a 1.45 ERA and WHIP of .968. The Reds are 5-0 lifetime against the D'backs when he gets the start.

Wade Miley gets the start for Arizona tonight. Miley has been impressive himself this season going 13-8 with a 2.78 ERA. He has given up 2 earned run or less in 11 of his 22 starts this season. While Miley has looked impressive, his wins haven't exactly been as impressive as one might think. Miley has had the benefit of starting against some of the weaker offensive teams in the league. Teams like Houston, Miami, the Cubs, Seattle, don't exactly scream "offense", while he has fallen to teams like Texas, St Louis, Washington, the Dodgers. The Reds I feel are a middle of the pack offensive team and not quite on the same level as say Texas or Washington; they are more offensively explosive than the teams like the mentioned above. Miley has only seem the Reds once in his career and owns a lifetime record of 1-0 against Cincinnati however his ERA is 4.76.

This will probably be a close game and will come down to who gets the timely hits at the much needed time, however given the lifetime record that Johnny Cueto owns over the D'backs, there's value in siding with him at this cheap price

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

25*Tx AM -7
20*Tnn. -3
15*Vandy +7
15*Wash st. +13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

SF Giants RL-1.5 (5 UNITS)

Wash/Mia UNDER 7.5 (5 UNITS)

Reds (4 UNITS)

Braves RL-1.5 (4 UNITS)

LAA/Bos UNDER 7.5 (3 UNITS)