8-29-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Tigers -135

50* Patriots -1

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Wednesday

100* Play NY Yankees (-235) over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

JA Happ has lost 22 of the last 27 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost 22 of the last 32 games vs. division opponents. JA Happ has lost 37 of the last 55 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 1-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 5.26.

50* Play San Francisco (-160) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play Oakland (-130) over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +144 over TEXAS
The Rangers are so tough at home but when we can take back a price like this on the Rays with a pitching matchup that under the surface favors the Rays, we’ll bite almost every time.
Matt Harrison's ticket to the All-Star Game was punched largely on the strength of his W-L record. He’s 15-7 with a 3.07 ERA but luck has played a major role in those numbers. Harrison’s strand rate over the past month has been 82%. On the year, it’s 79%. When you combine that with an average strikeout rate of 101 batters in 169 innings, it confirms that balls in play have been hit right at people and that is unsustainable. Harrison’s 4.08 xERA strongly suggests some regression in the final month. He’s definitely a reliable starter but he doesn't profile as an All-Star from a skills perspective.
By contrast, Alex Cobb has not been nearly as fortunate with a 65% strand rate, 15 points lower than Harrison’s. That’s a big discrepancy and when things even it over time, the numbers will show Alex Cobb to be the more skilled of the two. Cobb has an elite 58% groundball rate. His xERA over the past month was 3.17 and on the year it’s 3.49. That’s nearly 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA. Cobb also has good control with 28 walks in 102 frames. We also like that the Rangers have just 19 career AB’s against Cobb and have managed just four hits (.211) against him while the Rays got to Harrison for 14 hits and six runs in five innings the last time they saw him in April of this year.

Seattle -107 over MINNESOTA
In 51 innings, Minnesota’s Sam Deduno has walked 37 while striking out 30. He’s constantly behind in counts and when you fall behind or walk that many hitters at this level, you basically have no chance for success. Deduno has walked five or more in three of his past four starts. In the lone game where he didn’t give that many free passes, he allowed 11 hits in five frames with no strikeouts. With the Twins in last place in their division, they can afford to send out guys that they can assess for next season. Why not? But pitching for a reeling Twins’ club that has dropped 12 of 14 and with his confidence and skills at a delicate level, Deduno is a pitcher to avoid.
Jason Vargas will never be a dominant pitcher. He’s your classic soft-tossing lefty that will implode from time-to-time but he won’t walk many and he’ll usually give the M’s a decent chance to win. Vargas has 13 wins and 18 quality starts in 27 tries.
The M’s are in much better form and they’ll face an erratic thrower that we’re comfortable fading at this cheap price.

[Mr. IWS]

Rockdemansports

DOG OF THE DAY Mets

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

30 Dime Seattle Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes

MLB - 917 Toronto Blue Jays @ 918 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: J. Happ vs C. Sabathia)

Looking at Sabathia's level and Happ's current form, I believe he will have a pitchers duel on this contest, similar to Happ's start in Detroit last week against Verlander. In that game, he had his best performance since joining Toronto, with just one run allowed on four hits in 7.1 IP. He is definitely very well right now, with just two runs allowed on six hitting in 13.1 IP over his last two starts. He had three quality starts out of four games for Toronto and he has always faced a top team: Tampa Bay, NY Yankees, Texas and Detroit, with FIP numbers of 2.41, 0.93 and 1.48 in those three excellent outings. He will now once again face the Yankees today, who have been having some offensive issues lately, mostly caused due to Teixeira and A-Rod being out. Therefore, I believe the in-form Happ will have a good outing today and limit the Yankees offense in this game.
Sabathia will start for the Yankees and he is coming from a great comeback game from injury in Cleveland, where he allowed just one run and four hits in 7.1 IP, with a 1.23 ERA, 3.23 FIP and 2.06 xFIP. He has always been very successful against the Blue Jays and with Toronto's current poor offense, I believe Sabathia will have an easy outing today.
With Sabathia dominating the Blue Jays and with Happ being in good form, ready to have another quality outing today, I believe this game will be a low scoring contest like it was yesterday and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies - ROCKIES TO WIN (+118) *3:10 PM EST*
Listed Pitchers: Blanton vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.36 units)

The Colorado Rockies look to complete a sweep of Los Angeles tonight as they've taken the first two games 10-0 and 8-4. The Rockies are 53-75 on the season and 28-39 at home, but have been playing much better baseball as of late winning 8 of their last 10. The Dodgers are 69-61 on the season and 34-32 away from home. They are just 2-6 in their last 8 games. Other then two wins at home against Miami where the Dodgers scored 19 runs combined they have scored just 12 runs in their 6 losses (2 runs per game). On the mound for Los Angeles this afternoon is Joe Blanton who is 8-12 on the year with a 5.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .275 opponents batting average. In four starts since being traded to the Dodgers he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. Drew Pomeranz gets the nod for Colorado and he is 1-7 on the season with a 4.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average. Although he has been struggling getting deep into any ball games, Pomeranz has allowed 3 or less earned runs against in 5 of his last 6 starts (note his longest was 5.1 innings though). The Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a favorite and 1-4 in their last 5 following a loss. The Rockies are 10-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. They are also 7-2 in their last 9 home games overall, 9-3 in their last 12 vs a right handed starter, and 8-3 in their lsat 11 games following a win. The Rockies are 5-1 in these two teams last 6 meetings. Take Colorado as underdogs for 2 units.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

50 Dime
Winner # 10 of 12
- # 14 of 18 overall -
Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney

50 Dime A.L. InterDivision
Game of the Year
Baltimore Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

2nd Biggest Release
400,000 Winner #16 of 22
Pittsburgh Pirates

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

60 Dime
MLB WINNER #6 OF 7
Run Line Blowout
4-Run Shellacking
Rangers RL

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

300 RUN LINE PUNISHER
4-Run Mismatch Winner
Yankees RL

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

30 Dime
Preseason Mismatch
Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

STAT OF THE DAY--- In C.J. Wilson's last 5 starts his games have averaged a whopping 18.2 rpg.

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Texas/ Tampa Bay Under 9.5

LA Angels/ Boston Over 9

Kansas City/ Detroit Over 9

Seattle/ Minnesota Under 9

POWER ANGLE PLAY

San Francisco -153 over HOUSTON: POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2010 the Giants are 19-2 when their starter went at least 8 innings in his last start and they won by 3+ runs.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY YANKS RL-1.5 (-125) over Toronto

St Louis/ Pittsburgh Over 8.5

Milwaukee -121 over CHICAGO

1 UNIT PLAYS

PHILADELPHIA -165 over NY Mets

Cincinnati/ Arizona Under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

15* Cincinnati Reds

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Miami Dolphins +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

901 Dodgers -126 @ 3:10p

903 Reds -116 @ 3:40p

905 Braves -123 @ 6:35p

909 Cards -109 @ 7:05p

919 A's -134 @ 7:05p

924 Rangers -155 @ 7:05p

912 Marlins +116 @ 7:10p

914 Cubs +112 @ 8:05p

925 Tigers -128 @ 8:10p

927 Mariners -105 @ 8:10p

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast

3* Miami Dolphins+3

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

CHICAGO +122 over Baltimore
Interesting matchup sees newly acquired Joe Saunders making his Oriole debut while the White Sox have called up Dylan Axelrod to replace an injured Gavin Floyd in the rotation. On paper, it would appear that Saunders has an edge but nothing could be further from the proof.

Saunders went 6-10 with the D-Backs with a 4.22 ERA pitching half his games in a tough venue. Problem with that logic is that he wasn’t much better on the road. This is a guy with a career BAA of .275 and a career ERA of 4.17 so he’s been right on par with his career numbers. The Diamondbacks had lost seven of his past nine starts before the trade and in August, he allowed 32 hits and 19 runs in 23 innings. Camden Yards is not the best fit for him either (+11% RH HR, +22% LH HR).

Axelrod is a pitcher that has ugly surface stats (1-2, 5.63 ERA) but small sample sizes can be extremely misleading. That 5.63 ERA (38 IP) is easy to pass up, but a strong 48% groundball rate, 31 k’s in 38 frames suggests something interesting here, as do solid performances against NYY and Boston (13.2 IP, 3 ER’s). Axelrod has pitched well at AAA—2.88 ERA, 92 K’s in 97 IP. The kid has been a victim of numbers in the South Side’s rotation. He’s highly skilled and could be a nice sleeper down the stretch. He certainly offers up more value taking back a price than Saunders does spotting one.

Our Pick CHICAGO +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK

Washington Nationals-128

15* NL No-Doubt Rout

Atlanta Braves-124

15* Patriots/Giants NFL Preaseson BLOWOUT

New Englands Patriots-120

[Mr. IWS]

NSA
20* MLB Athletics -135
20* MLB Yankees -1.5
20* MLB Reds -120
10* MLB Cardinals -110
10* MLB Braves -130
10* MLB Angels -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Sports & Profits

5* LA Dodgers/Joe Blanton at Colorado/Drew Pomeranz over/under Over 10.5 -110

5* Cincinnati/Mat Latos at Arizona/Patrick Corbin over/under Under 8.5 -115

5* Oakland/Travis Blackley at Cleveland/Corey Kluber over/under Under 8 -105

5* Tampa Bay/Alex Cobb at Texas/Matt Harrison moneyline Texas -151

5* Boston/Zach Stewart at LA Angels/C.J. Wilson over/under Over 9 -105

[Mr. IWS]

401k Sports Wednesday Plays

NY Mets +115 over Philadelphia(7pm)
Tampa Bay/Texas under 9(-110)(7pm)
Seattle -105 over Minnesota(8pm)

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange

10* White Sox +120