8-31-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Chico1856]

DR BOB

Tennessee (-3.0) 27 No Carolina St. 20
Neutral Site: AtlantaShare Tennessee vs. No Carolina St. Analysis On Facebook
Over/Under Total: 51.5
04:30 PM Pacific Time, Friday, 31-Aug-2012

Tennessee’s offense really struggled last season when emerging star quarterback Tyler Bray was injured in week 4 (averaged just 5.8 points per game in 4 SEC contests without Bray) and he wasn’t fully healthy when he returned for the final two games. Bray’s numbers were very good in his freshman season, when he took over the position in mid-season (7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and he was averaging 8.2 yppp (vs teams that would allow 6.1 yppp) in the first five games of the season last year when he got hurt. Overall, Bray averaged 7.3 yppp in 7 games last season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and he’ll have good numbers this season even without the services of top receiver Da’Rick Rogers, who was 1st Team All-SEC last year but was dismissed from the team last week and has transferred to Tennessee Tech.

The Vols’ offense was only average overall last season due to a horrible rushing attack (3.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) and the injury to Bray, but I expect Tennessee to be solidly above average on offense while the defense should be stingier with 8 starters returning from a unit that was better than average last season with just 4 returning starters (they allowed 5.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). Overall, Tennessee should be about 5 points better this season than they were last year and the Vols could improve more if one of their remaining receivers steps up to fill the void left by Rogers.

NC State was 8-5 last season but the Wolfpack were more lucky than good. NC State was out-gained 4.9 yppl to 5.5 yppl last season but they benefited from a +14 turnover margin that is not likely to carry over to this season. I actually think the Wolfpack are a better team on both sides of the ball this season, as they should be healthier than they were last season, but that probably won’t show up on the scoreboard or in the win-loss record unless they are equally fortunate in the turnover department.

The Wolfpack were bad offensively last season, averaging just 4.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and they should still be worse than average even though I expect improvement in the rushing attack (only 3.8 yprp last season). The NC State defense played well down the stretch in 2011 and ended the season at 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). I expect the improvement to carry over into this season and the Wolfpack should be pretty good defensively.

I do rate Tennessee’s offense as slightly better than the NC State defense and the Vols have a pretty significant advantage when their defense is on the field against a pedestrian Wolfpack attack. I also give Tennessee the edge in special teams and overall my ratings favor the Volunteers by 7 points in this game.




#13 MICHIGAN ST. (-6.5) 24 #24 Boise St. 17Share #24 Boise St. vs. #13 Michigan St. Analysis On Facebook
Over/Under Total: 46.5
05:00 PM Pacific Time, Friday, 31-Aug-2012

Boise State has lost great players in the past and managed to produce other great players to take their place but we’re about to find out how much of the Broncos’ success is the players and how much of it is the coaching staff and system. Boise will be without quarterback Kellen Moore for the first time since 2007 and replacing a guy that was 50-3 straight up as the starting quarterback will be tough to do. However, there have been other quarterbacks at Boise that were thought to be tough to replace until the next guy came along and performed just as well. Moore, however, is in another category from most other Boise quarterbacks, as only Ryan Dinwiddie (2000-03) had similarly impressive compensated yards per pass numbers. Dinwiddie’s compensated yppp was 8.35 yppp over his last two seasons and Moore had compensated ratings of 7.8 yppp, 7.5 yppp, 9.3 yppp (with two NFL caliber receivers in 2010) and 7.8 yppp last season. I’ll assume that new quarterback Joe Southwick is not Dinwiddie or Moore and the average yppp rating for the Boise quarterbacks between those two greats was 7.0 yppp, which is the number I’ll assign to the pass attack heading into this season. Boise’s rushing attack was worse than average last season even with current NFL RB Doug Martin and it should still be a bit below average with just 2 returning starters on the offensive line – even though DJ Harper has proven himself as a good back and others are waiting in line to show off their abilities.

Overall I rate the Boise State offense at a modest 0.3 yards per play better than average on a national scale (they were +0.7 yppl last season), which is about what they were before Kellen Moore stepped on campus. That offense is at a huge disadvantage in this game against a dominating Michigan State stop unit that yielded just 4.4 yppl last season (to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) and should be even better this season with 8 returning starters – including stars D William Gholston (16 tackles for loss) and LB Denicos Allen (18.5 TFL). It’s going to be hard for any offense to move the ball against the Spartans this season and Boise State doesn’t appear to have the pieces in place to score more than 20 points.

The big question mark for Boise State this season is not the offense, which is always good, but rather a defense that returns just 2 starters from last year’s solid unit. I actually expect the pass defense to be good with both starting cornerbacks returning but the defensive front 7 is all new starters and lost 3 NFL draft pick from the defensive line. Boise was among the toughest teams in the nation to run against last season (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp) but they’ll likely be much closer to average against the run this year. Boise’s defense should still be good and I actually rate Michigan State’s offense as about average with the new starting quarterback unlikely to match the production of Kirk Cousins. The Spartans were only 0.3 yppl better than average last season with the veteran quarterback (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), so a slip to being average is reasonable.

Both defenses have an edge in this game, but Michigan State’s defense is the best unit on the field and should make the difference. My ratings favor the Spartans by 8 ½ points but I really hate to go against Boise State as an underdog since the Broncos’ coaching staff usually finds a way to win games that they’re not supposed to. In fact, Boise State is 4-0 straight up as an underdog of more than 3 points under coach Chris Peterson and the Broncos are 13-2 ATS under Peterson in competitive games - when they are favored by 7 points or less or getting points (including 9-0 ATS since 2008). I certainly don’t want to buck that trend, and I don’t want to go against my ratings either, so I’ll pass on this game.





#21 STANFORD (-24.0) 41 San Jose St. 14Share San Jose St. vs. #21 Stanford Analysis On Facebook
Over/Under Total: 51.0
07:00 PM Pacific Time, Friday, 31-Aug-2012

Stanford starts a new era now that Andrew Luck is in the NFL, but the Cardinal should still be a very good team with a strong rushing attack, an efficient pass attack, and a very good defense that will be tough to run against. San Jose State may look back on this time as the beginning of a good era for the Spartans, as coach Mike MacIntyre is exhibiting signs of turning the San Jose State into a solid program after spending most of the last decade in despair. MacIntyre inherited a 2-10 team and went just 1-12 in his first season in 2010 while playing mostly younger players. That paid off last season with a 5-7 mark and the Spartans will likely have a winning record this season thanks to an easy schedule and improved talent. San Jose State is still a sub-par team on a national scale (I rate them at about 7 points worse than average) but they are well coached.

Stanford obviously won’t be nearly as good offensively without Luck, but junior Josh Nunes knows the offense well and should put up solid numbers while being supported by a good rushing attack led by Stephan Taylor, who ran for 1330 yards at 5.5 ypr last season. The offensive line doesn’t appear to be as good this season after losing two high NFL draft picks (1st round and 2nd round) but the rushing attack will still be good. Stanford will partially make up for the slip in offensive production with a defense that possesses a 1st Team All-Pac 12 DE in Ben Gardner and two linebackers (Chase Thomas and Shan Skov) that will be vying for All-American honors this season. Stanford was very good defending the run last season and they’ll be better with Skov back in action after he played just 2 ½ games last season (Skov will sit out this game due to suspension). Stanford isn’t the top 10 team they’ve been the last couple of seasons but I rate the Cardinal 15th heading into this season so they are still a very good team.

My ratings favor Stanford by just 24 points but the Cardinal apply to a 94-43-1 ATS week 1 indicator and they could be motivated to prove themselves in their first game without Luck.