9-8-12 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

09-08-2012, 09:02 AM

Dr. Bob

I have 5 Best Bets and 4 Strong Opinions this week.

Best Bets
Rotation #328 Missouri (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars down to -1.
Rotation #350 Mississippi (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or less.
Rotation #368 Connecticut (+4 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #378 Arizona State (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Rotation #383 Florida Atlantic (+8 1/2) 2-Stars at +7 or more.

Strong Opinions
Rotation #309 Air Force (+21 1/2) Strong Opinion at +20 or more.
Rotation #322 Kansas (-10) Strong Opinion at -11 or less.
Rotation #323 Toledo (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Rotation #364 UCLA (+5 1/2) Strong Opinion at +4 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

As always, make sure to pay attention to the line constraints if you weren't able to use the Best Bets release page to get down at the lines before they moved. Often times the lines move back towards where they started after the initial move, so it is probably best to wait for the lines to move back before making your plays if you didn't get down using the release page. However, I would recommend playing the games before Saturday morning if you can.

This week I have attached the analysis in the email, but I won't be doing so every week. To read the analysis of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions simply log into the site and click on View College from your My Account page, or click on Today's Picks on the header.

The analysis of all other games is posted in the Free Analysis section on the website and I should have all of that done by Friday night this week.

3 Star Best Bet
***MISSOURI (+3.0) 31 Georgia 23
08-Sep-2012 4:45PM Pacific
My preseason ratings would have favored Missouri by 1 1/2 points in this game and Georgia didn't play as well as expected defensively against Buffalo, as their suspended players on defense may be more significant than I had allotted. The Bulldogs allowed a horrible Buffalo attack to average 5.0 yards per play, which is terrible considering that the Bulls’ offense was 0.8 yppl worse than average last season and is expected as bad or even worse this year. There was certainly nothing wrong with Georgia’s explosive offense, as the Bulldogs racked up 485 yards at 7.3 yppl, which is more than the 7.0 yppl that I had expected from that unit against a bad Buffalo defense. Overall, Georgia performed much worse than expected last week, as they won by just 22 points as a 38 point favorite and out-gained Buffalo by 2.3 yppl when I had expected a +3.5 yppl margin.

Missouri, meanwhile, beat up on SE Louisiana, as expected, winning 62-10 as a 43 point favorite and the Tigers played at about the level I expected from them in that game. What I expect from Missouri this season is a good balanced offense (although not as good as last year’s attack that was 0.9 yppl better than average) and a defense that should be a bit better than last year’s unit that rated at 0.5 yppl better than average. Overall, I rate Missouri as a few points worse than last season but the Tigers are still a good team and my updated ratings favor Missouri by 2 ½ points after factoring in Georgia’s defensive suspensions (4 starters out).

In addition to the line value the Tigers apply to a 40-4-1 ATS subset of a 192-93-3 ATS situation and a 42-12 ATS game 2 home underdog situation. Georgia, meanwhile, applies to a negative situation. It's a strong technical play with line value and I'll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 or more and for 2-Stars at less than +3 points.
Note: I released this game on Tuesday to my subscribers and the line quickly dropped to +2 points, so it is a 2-Star for those that didn't get on it when I released it early in the week.

2 Star Best Bet
**CONNECTICUT (+4.5) 23 No Carolina St. 19
08-Sep-2012 9:00AM Pacific
NC State is clearly overrated, as they were only a 3 point dog to Tennessee (a 21-35 loss) while my ratings favor them to lose by 6. This week the Wolfpack are a 4 ½ point favorite on the road against U Conn and my ratings favor the Huskies to win straight up. Connecticut struggled in Paul Pasqualoni’s first season as the Huskies’ head coach (he successfully led Syracuse from 1991 to 2004), but the talent level has been upgraded and I expected the defense to go from a bit below average to 0.4 yards per play better than average this season with 8 starters returning, including top CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson. U Conn has a better than average defense in the 6 games that Wreh-Wilson was able to start but they were bad against the pass in the games he missed. Connecticut should have a pretty good pass defense with Wreh-Wilson back healthy and two other starters from the secondary returning. U Conn’s run defense, meanwhile, was great in allowing just 3.9 yards per rushing play last season (to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average defensive team). The Huskies certainly indicated that they’re going to be defensively, as they held U Mass to a paltry 59 total yards on 47 plays for 1.3 yards per play. U Mass will have one of the worst offenses in Division 1A this season but allowing 1.3 yppl to any team is a sign that you have a good defense and U Conn may be better defensively than I thought they’d be.

The Huskies shouldn’t have much of a problem limiting an NC State attack that was 0.7 yppl worse than average last season (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Wolfpack should be closer to average offensively this season and the 5.2 yppl that they gained against Tennessee is evidence of that, but Connecticut certainly an advantage when NC State has the ball.

Connecticut’s offense also struggled last season, as the Huskies averaged just 4.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), but sophomore transfer Chandler Whitmer looks like a major upgrade at quarterback. Whitmer averaged 8.8 yards per pass play last week, which is good even against a bad pass U Mass pass defense (they’d allow 7.9 yppp to an average quarterback on the road). U Conn’s rushing attack still sucks and I still have Whitmer at 0.3 yppp worse than average until he shows me he can consistently be better than average. Overall I rate the Huskies’ offense at 0.6 yppl worse than average and NC State’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average – so the defense has the edge when Connecticut has the ball too.

We have a battle of two sub-par offensive teams against two better than average defensive teams, but U Conn has the better defense and I project them with slightly more total yards (329 to 316) while also have better special teams and the home field advantage. Using last year’s stats would have favored Connecticut by 1 point and my preseason ratings would have favored the Huskies by 1 ½ points. Connecticut certainly played a better game last week, even after compensating for the strength of the opponent, as the Huskies dominated in a 37-0 win in which they out-gained their opponent by 316 total yards. NC State, meanwhile, was only a slight underdog yet the Wolfpack were outgained by 117 yards and 5.2 yppl to 6.6 yppl.

Connecticut should be favored by a few points in this game and the Huskies apply to a very good 61-19-2 ATS week 2 situation. I’ll take Connecticut in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Best Bet
**MISSISSIPPI (-7.5) 40 Texas El Paso 23
08-Sep-2012 4:00PM Pacific
Ole Miss was a horrible 2-10 last season are were bad on both sides of the ball, but I expect a major improvement this season under the leadership of new coach Hugh Freeze, who turned around Arkansas State last season. Arkansas State improved more than a full yard in compensated yards per play differential in Freeze’s only year there and the same thing to happen here in Oxford. The Rebels’ offense suffered last season from bad quarterbacking, but that problem has certainly been solved with the arrival of Bo Wallace, who was the JC National Player of the Year last season and was in Freeze’s offensive system as a freshman 2 years ago (Freeze was the offensive coordinator at Arkansas State before becoming head coach). Wallace completed 20 of 24 passes, averaged 9.7 yards per pass play (including the 2 sacks he took) and also gained 94 yards on 11 runs. I realize that the Central Arkansas defense Wallace was facing is horrible by Division 1A standards, but completing 20 of 24 passes would be good against no defense at all and Wallace certainly looks like a good quarterback. Overall the Rebels averaged 7.2 yards per play against a defense that I project would allow 7.0 yppl to an average 1A team and I had the Ole Miss offense rated at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season, so they played at the level that I expected.

Mississippi’s attack should move the ball well in this game against a UTEP defense that was horrible against the run last season and gave up 6.6 yards per rushing play to Oklahoma last week. The Miners did do an outstanding job of defending the Sooners’ pass attack, holding Landry Jones to just 5.2 yards per pass play. Jones struggled in the final 4 games last season after All-American WR Ryan Broyles got injured and Broyles is now in the NFL. Still, holding Oklahoma to 5.2 yppp is certainly noteworthy but it’s hard to believe that UTEP’s pass defense could go from 0.8 yppp worse than average last year to suddenly being great. I did adjust the Miners’ pass defense rating significantly following last week’s effort, but I still project Ole’ Miss to rack up over 450 yards at 6.5 yards per play in this game.

The Ole’ Miss defense was dreadful last season but I expected them to be only slightly worse than average heading into this season based on their talent level. I’m a bit concerned with the 78% completions that the Rebels allowed, but Central Arkansas rated at 0.5 yards per pass play better than an average Division 1A team last season (and they’re probably a bit worse than average without former Arkansas QB Nathan Dick, who graduated). Overall the Rebels allowed 5.2 yppl last week to Central Arkansas, which is actually only 0.3 yppl more than an average 1A defense would allow at home to UCA – so the Rebels’ defense played about as well as I expected.

UTEP appears to still have a very strong rushing attack despite losing their top 3 rushers from last season – a trio that combined for 1634 yards at 5.6 ypr and 21 touchdowns – as sophomore Nathan Jeffery ran for 177 yards last week in leading a Miners’ ground game that averaged 6.2 yards per rushing play. The pass attack, however, was unbelievably bad, as UTEP managed a total of just 43 passing yards on 28 pass play against the Sooners. I realize that Oklahoma has a good pass defense, but that unit would allow about 4.8 yppp on the road to an average passing team. UTEP has been 0.7 yppp worse than average in each of the last two seasons and that’s where I have them rated this season. Overall, the Miners should still be about average offensively while the Rebels are a bit worse than average on defense – so UTEP should move the ball pretty well (I project 389 yards at 5.6 yppl). However, my ratings favor Mississippi by 10 ½ points overall and the Rebels apply to a 46-7 ATS game 2 situation and a 42-13 ATS game 2 situation that combine to go 8-1 ATS when both apply to the same team. The situation is certainly strong enough for me to make on play on this game given that I also see a bit of line value on the side of the Rebels. I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**Florida Atl. (+8.5) 23 MIDDLE TENN 24
08-Sep-2012 4:00PM Pacific
These are two bad teams. These teams won a combined 3 games last season despite playing in the nation’s worst conference (the Sun Belt) and last week is an indication that it’s going to be another long season for both the Owls and the Blue Raiders. Florida Atlantic barely beat lowly Wagner 7-6 (Wagner is about 33 points worse than an average Division 1A team) and Middle Tennessee State lost straight up 21-27 to McNeese State, a team that is about 18 points worse than an average 1A team. Based on scores it appears as if FAU was the worst of the two teams last week but the Owls out-gained Wagner 327 yards at 5.1 yppl to 215 yards at 4.0 yppl and barely won because they were -4 in fumbles, which is random. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, was out-played 343 yards at 5.0 yppl to 450 yards at 6.4 yppl by McNeese State, so the fact that they were -2 in fumbles was not the reason they lost that game. Based strictly on the stats and adjusting for the strength (or weakness in this case) of opponents Florida Atlantic’s effort was 7.5 points better than Middle Tennessee’s performance last week. Florida Atlantic’s rating in that game would have been even higher if quarterback Graham Wilbert played the entire game, as Wilbert came off the bench to average 9.7 yards on 13 pass plays after starter Stephen Curtis averaged just 3.4 yards per pass play on 11 pass plays. Wilbert certainly wasn’t good last year (4.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback), but he’s certainly better than Curtis, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yppp on 26 pass plays last season and obviously still sucks given the 3.4 yppp that he averaged against a Wagner team that would allow 9.8 yppp on the road to an average FBS quarterback. Florida Atlantic still has one of the worst offenses in 1A football, but they should be improved this season now that Wilbert has been named the starting quarterback.

Middle Tennessee’s defense was terrible last season (0.9 yppl worse than average) and the Raiders don’t appear to be any better after allowing 6.4 yppl to McNeese State (who would average 4.9 yppl on the road against an average 1A defense). The Blue Raiders are also less experienced on offense than last year’s team and an offensive line with just 1 returning starter had trouble opening holes against a bad run defense (just 3.8 yards per rushing play against McNeese) and quarterback Logan Kilgore doesn’t look any better than last year (he was 1.0 yppp worse than average) based on the 5.9 yppp that he average last week against a dreadful McNeese pass defense that was 2.5 yppp worse than average (by 1A standards) defending the pass last season.

The best unit in this contest is Florida Atlantic’s defense, which was pretty solid last season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense) and returns 8 starters from that unit. The Owls are learning a new scheme, so I actually expect them to be a bit worse defensively this season (I rate them at 0.4 yppl worse than average) and their performance last week was what I expected as the Owls allowed 4.0 yppl to a Wagner team that would average 3.6 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A defense.

Middle Tennessee does have a better offense – although they didn’t show it last week, but Florida Atlantic has the better defense and I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched. My math model would have favored Middle Tennessee by 8 ½ points using last year’s stats and Florida Atlantic has improved (now that Wilbert is back at quarterback) while Middle Tennessee State appears to be worse. Losing to a 1AA team is not a good omen for the Blue Raiders, as teams that lose to a 1AA team are just 23-51-2 ATS as a favorite the next week, including 5-34 ATS in the first 4 games of the season. FAU, meanwhile, applies to a 53-17-4 ATS early season conference road underdog angle and my ratings only favor Middle Tennessee by 4 ½ points in this game. I’ll take Florida Atlantic in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

2 Star Best Bet
**ARIZONA ST. (-3.5) 29 Illinois 16
08-Sep-2012 7:30PM Pacific
I missed the chance to get this game at a much better number, as ASU went from a 1 point dog to a field goal favorite. The move was partially because of the questionable status of Illinois’ quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, but it also had a lot to do with the Sun Devils being a better team. Arizona State fell apart defensively last season due mostly to bad moral under former coach Dennis Erickson, but there is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and Arizona State figured to be much better defensively despite having just 4 starters returning. That appears to be the case, as holding Northern Arizona to just 4.0 yards per play is a very good effort given that the Lumberjacks have a history of good offensive teams (last season they would have been slightly better than average on a Division 1A scale – although they’re probably going to be around 0.6 yppl worse than average this season with a new quarterback). Arizona State has good talent on offense too and the Sun Devils racked up 554 yards at 7.8 yppl in their 63-6 win as a 25 ½ point favorite. Northern Arizona has a horrible defense by Division 1A standards, but averaging 7.8 yppl against that defense is still a good showing and it will certainly serve as a confidence booster for this game. In fact, team that score 50 points or more and win by 40 points or more at home in their opening game of the season are 47-17 ATS at home the next week, including 29-9 ATS if the big win was against a Division 1AA team.

Illinois does have an excellent defense and holding Western Michigan to 4.2 yppl and 7 points is an accomplishment, but the Illini are still horrible offensively and may be without their starting quarterback this week due to a sprained ankle (although I’ll assume that Scheelhaase will play and be 100%). Illinois was 0.6 yppl worse than average last season and last week the Illini averaged a pathetic 4.0 yppl against a horrible Western Michigan defense that was 1.2 yppl worse than average in 2011. Arizona State should have no trouble limiting the Illini regardless of who is at quarterback and my ratings favor ASU by 5 points in this game. The Sun Devils also apply to a 40-4-1 ATS subset of a 192-93-3 ATS home momentum situation and I mentioned earlier how well home teams do in game 2 after winning big and scoring a lot of points at home the previous week. I’m upset that I didn’t jump on this one earlier in the week, but there is still value on the side of ASU and I’ll take Arizona State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars if the line goes back down to -3 or better.

Strong Opinion
Air Force (+21.5) 23 MICHIGAN 38
08-Sep-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Air Force may not be getting the respect that they deserve because they are returning a total of just 5 starters (3 on offense and 2 on defense), but returning starters is rarely a good indication of how a military team will perform. Evidence of that is last year’s Air Force team that returned 14 starters, which is a lot for a service academy, and had their worst record in 5 seasons under coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force, like Navy, is more about the system than the players and the Falcons have been between 2 points and 5 ½ points better than an average Division 1A team in each of Calhoun’s seasons. I actually rate Air Force at 0.3 points worse than an average team heading into this season because their defense is likely to be worse than it’s been in any season under Calhoun, but the offense should be as good as it’s been in recent years with veteran Connor Dietz leading the attack and back Cody Getz stepping into the lineup at tailback (he ran for 218 yards last week on 17 carries). Michigan has not had a better than average run defense in any of the last 4 seasons and that may be the case again after allowing 253 yards at 6.3 yards per rushing play to Alabama last week. It will be a tough task for the Wolverines to focus after last week’s disappointing loss to the Crimson Tide and preparing for the Air Force option takes a lot of focus in practice. Air Force should do a pretty good job of moving the ball in this game (I project 342 yards at 5.5 yards per play).

The question mark in this game is an Air Force defense that allowed 5.3 yppl to lowly Idaho State last week – although most of that damage was done in the second half after the Falcons built a 28-0 lead at halftime. Michigan’s offense only averaged 4.8 yppl against Alabama, but that’s a good number against the Tide, and the Wolverines should rack up plenty of points against a below average Air Force stop unit. I project 7.2 yppl for the Wolverines in this game. However, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson still makes too many mistakes (his career interception percentage of 5.3% is horrendous) and Air Force is likely to win the turnover battle because they don’t throw the ball much and don’t fumble it much either (they’re +50 in turnover margin in Calhoun’s first 5 seasons).

My math model using last year’s stats would have favored Michigan by only 10 points and while Michigan should be a bit better this season and Air Force should be a bit worse, I just can’t justify a 3 touchdown spread in this game – especially given the possibility that Michigan may not be focused in practice this week after last week’s disappointing loss. My ratings favor Michigan by just 16 ½ points and the Wolverines apply to a negative 15-41-1 ATS big favorite letdown situation. I’ll consider Air Force a Strong Opinion at +20 points or more.

Strong Opinion
KANSAS (-10.0) 36 Rice 20
08-Sep-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Kansas mixed some good with some bad in their 31-17 win last week against South Dakota State. The bad was Jayhawks’ quarterback Dayne Crist, who was ineffective against a bad defense, completing less than half his passes and averaging just 4.2 yards per pass play. The Jayhawks’ rushing attack produced two 100 yard rushers and compiled 278 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play, which was considerably better than expected even after adjusting for the opposing defense. Overall Kansas averaged just 5.3 yards per play, but Crist should be better than what he showed last week – although I dropped his rating to 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average. Crist won’t have to do much this week against a horrible Rice defense that gave up 350 yards on 35 runs last week to UCLA, including 3 runs of over 70 yards. Kansas has the speed to have some breakaway runs too if Rice continues to defend the run as poorly as they have in recent years. The Owls pass defense is bad too and UCLA ended up with 646 total yards at 9.4 yards per play in a 49-24 win over the Owls. Kansas should move the ball with their rushing attack and Crist should play better than he did last week, so I expect the Jayhawks to score a good number of points in this game.

I rated the Owls’ offense at 0.7 yards per play worse than average heading into the season and they played at the level I expected last week – averaging 4.7 yppl in a game that I projected them to have 4.6 yppl. The Kansas defense should have the advantage in this game, as the Jayhawks rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average and showed signs of major improvement in their pass defense last week. South Dakota State quarterback Sumner was only 0.4 yards per pass play worse than an average Division 1A quarterback last season but the Jayhawks held Sumner to just 5.25 yppp last week. I still rate the Jayhawks’ pass defense as worse than average, but they could be better than average based on what they showed last week. Kansas did allow 215 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play, but 99 of those yards came on a 1st quarter run, so the Jayhawks yielded just 3.8 yprp in the other 30 rushing plays they faced. Rice appears to have an improved rushing attack, and I expect the Owls to average around 5 yard a run, but quarterback Taylor McHargue was terrible last week and has been 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average since the start of last season (on 220 pass plays he’s averaged 5.1 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback).

Overall my ratings favor Kansas by 11 ½ points and the Jayhawks apply to a very good 46-7 ATS game 2 situation while Rice applies to a negative 62-117-3 ATS early season angle that is based on their bad defense last week. The Owls have also been horrible on the road under coach David Bailiff and are just 1-12 ATS in road games against teams with a winning record and 1-13 ATS on the road against a team coming off a win (0-12 ATS if facing a winning team off a win). The situations strongly favor Kansas and the line is more than fair, and I’ll consider Kansas a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Toledo (+3) 34 WYOMING 31
08-Sep-2012 1:00PM Pacific
Both of these teams covered as underdogs last week, as Toledo lost in overtime as an 11 point dog at Arizona and Wyoming lost by just 20 points as a 31 ½ point dog in Texas. Wyoming played a much more impressive game, as the Cowboys averaged 6.1 yards per play against a very good Texas defense while allowing 6.0 yppl to the Longhorns. Wyoming did have an 82 yard pass play that skewed their yards per play average but they certainly played much better than expected offensively thanks to the effective passing of sophomore quarterback Brett Smith, who completed 57% of his passes and 9.2 yards per pass play. Smith would have averaged an impressive 6.9 yppp even without the 82 yard play, so his numbers were very good against one of the best defenses in the nation. Wyoming’s offense looks like it will be better than expected and I now rate that attack as better than average on a national scale after last week’s showing.

The Cowboys should be able to move the ball effectively against a soft Toledo defense that gave up 624 total yards at 7.2 yppl to Arizona last week, but limited the Wildcats to 17 points in regulation thanks to 3 turnovers and holding Arizona to just 5 of 16 conversions on 3rd and 4th downs (which is randomly good). Toledo returned just 4 starters from last year’s defense and I certainly have concerns about that unit.

What I’m not concerned too much about is the Rockets’ ability to move the ball in this game despite averaging a very poor 3.8 yppl last week. Arizona’s defense is much better than expected and Toledo has a proven attack despite having just 4 returning starters on that side of the ball. Quarterbacks Owens and Dantin have been great the last two years (they split snaps) but I did expect less passing production this season due to a less experienced receiving corps that is without safety net Eric Page, who caught 125 passes last season (although at just 9.5 yards per catch). Owens was actually fine last week, averaging 6.1 yards per pass play, but Dantin was horrible in collecting just 47 yards on 27 pass plays. Owens was considerably better than Dantin last year too and I’m hoping that the coaching staff wises up and plays Owens exclusively.

Toledo’s offense was uncharacteristically bad last week and Dantin should bounce back if he continues to play, so I think the Rockets will have pretty good success moving the ball in this game against a sub-par Wyoming defense. Wyoming is still horrible defending the run (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed last season and 6.2 yprp allowed to Texas last week) and I still rate the Cowboys’ pass defense as worse than average despite allowing just 5.6 yards per pass play to Texas last week. That good number has more to do with how bad Texas quarterback David Ash is (he’s averaged just 4.9 yppp on 217 career pass plays) than how good Wyoming’s pass defense is – although they certainly aren’t bad against the pass.

Both teams should move the ball well in this game, but Toledo should win the battle of field position thanks to superior special teams and their ability to move the chains more consistently. There is no doubt that Wyoming played better than Toledo last week but I still think Toledo is a better team and the Rockets apply to a solid 74-28 ATS week 2 bounce-back situation. I’ll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UCLA (+5.5) 30 Nebraska 29
08-Sep-2012 4:30PM Pacific
Both of these teams looked very good last week, as Nebraska beat up on a decent Southern Miss team 49-20 while UCLA demolished Rice on the road by a score of 49-24. The Bruins look like they’ve found a quarterback with frosh Brett Hundley taking off on a 72 run on his first snap and showing good accuracy throwing the football (21 of 28 completed), although most of his passes were underneath throws (he averaged a modest 7.2 yards per attempt and 6.5 yards per pass play). The star of the Bruins was running back Jonathan Franklin, who averaged 5.9 ypr last year and started this season with 214 yards on 15 carries thanks to two runs of more than 70 yards. Rice has a terrible run defense, but UCLA gained 350 yards on 35 running plays, which is great against any defense. The Bruins’ attack will get a much stiffer test today against a Nebraska defense that appears to have returned to form after a down year last season. The Huskers yielded just 3.9 yards per play to Southern Miss, which is 0.5 yppl less than I expected and I now rate the Nebraska defense at 0.8 yppl better than average (they were 0.4 yppl better than average last year). UCLA should be able to run the ball pretty well in this game, as Nebraska is not dominant defending the run, but Hundley will be tested by Nebraska’s very good pass defense.

Nebraska’s offense looked much better in their opener thanks to significant improvement in throwing the ball by quarterback Taylor Martinez, who completed 26 of 34 passes for 354 yards with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions against Southern Miss. Nebraska also ran the ball well but this week they’ll be without starting tailback Rex Burkhead, who sprained his knee after running for 68 yards on just 3 runs last week. Backup Ameer Abdullah only averaged 3.6 ypr last season but he was decent last week in tallying 81 yards on 15 runs (5.4 ypr). UCLA still doesn’t defend the run well, as the Bruins allowed 219 yards at 5.5 yard per rushing play to Rice and most of that damage was done by the Owls’ quarterbacks, who ran for 166 yards on 25 runs. Martinez didn’t run much last week but he’s a good runner that could give the Bruins some problems. UCLA does have a very good pass defense, however, so we’ll get a better idea on how much Martinez has improved his passing.

My ratings actually consider the line on this game to be fair (they favor Nebraska by 5 ½ points), but the situation is strongly in favor of the Bruins. UCLA applies to a 61-19-2 ATS game 2 situation and a 63-17 ATS home momentum situation while Nebraska applies to a negative 17-53-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. When the situations are that strong I don’t need line value on my side and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.