9-9-12 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

09-09-2012, 12:40 PM

Larry Ness' 10* Division G.O.Y. (64.4% in all NFL 2011)
My 10* AFC East Game of the Year is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET.

Rex Ryan said he believes this will be his best New York Jets team. That’s a remarkable statement, considering the Jets just completed an 0-4 preseason. Preseason results are really not all that noteworthy but the Jets have a unique situation entering the 2012 season, with the signing of Tim Tebow. In a year when both Drew Brees and Tom Brady broke Dan Marino’s single-season record for passing yards (set back in 1984) plus Aaron Rodgers was the league’s MVP for the 15-1 Packers (68.3% / 4,643 yards / 45-6 TD-to-INT ratio / 122.5 QB rating), Tebow was the NFL’s biggest star. It’s really quite a phenomenon, considering he’s an AWFUL quarterback. The Jets were the first team in 35 years to go three preseason games without a TD, matching the 1977 Atlanta Falcons for offensive futility. They took on Philly in their final preseason game having yet to reach the end zone in 35 possessions. Sanchez, Tebow and most of the Jets starters didn't play against the Eagles but third-string QB Greg McElroy accomplished more in one half than Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow did in three games. McElroy tossed a six-yard TD pass midway through the second quarter, although the Jets lost 28-10. Ryan is famous for his bombastic comments and has made multiple Super Bowl championship predictions. New York reached the AFC Championship game each of his first two years before going 8-8 and failing to qualify for the playoffs last year. Sanchez threw seven of his 18 interceptions against only five TDs while compiling a 60.3 QB rating as the Jets lost their final three games last season (went from playoff contention at 8-5 to out of the postseason at 8-8). That finish took much of the luster away from Sanchez's best statistical season in the NFL, one in which he finished with single-season career highs in completion percentage (56.7), passing yards (3,474), TD passes (26) and QB rating (78.2). Despite last year’s collapse and the team’s 0-4 preseason, Ryan's confidence doesn't seem shaken in 2012. "I truly feel that this will be the best team that I've had since I became head coach of the Jets," Ryan said. I believe it’s going to be a LONG season for the Jets, as I believe Sanchez is one of the NFL’s least confident starters. All this said, I’m “all over” the Jets in this game. No. 1, I‘m NOT one of the many who think the Bills will be greatly improved in 2012. Buffalo is trying to end a 12-year playoff drought, after opening 5-2 in 2011 but ending with EIGHT losses in its last nine games, finishing 6-10 (the team’s SEVENTH straight losing season). I realize the Bills signed DE Mario Williams to a six-year, $100 million contract (the richest ever awarded to a defensive player) and head coach Chan Gailey switched to a 4-3 scheme that emphasizes rushing the passer. However, the Bills allowed a franchise-worst 5,938 yards last season, while giving up 27.1 PPG. Offensively, the Bills are relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was terrific in the team’s 5-2 start but even though he finished with career highs of 3,832 passing yards, 24 TDs and a 62.0 percent completion percentage, his 23 INTs were a personal-worst. Fitzpatrick tossed 16 of those INTs over the final nine games, while compiling a 66.5 passer rating compared to 97.8 over the first seven contests. Because of Ryan’s “big fat mouth” and the Jets being squarely in the media capital of the world, the team draws more than its fair share of publicity. Bottom line is this. The Bills also went 0-4 in the preseason, getting outscored 119-to-59 (32 points came in the final contest). However, out of the glare of an out-of-control media, we don’t hear much about Buffalo’s woes (which are many). Even last year, the Jets won both meetings against the Bills, winning 27-11 in Buffalo and 28-24 in New Jersey. The Jets enter this contest having won FIVE in a row over the Bills, by an average margin of 16.2 PPG. Here’s the bottom line. The Bills are 3-13 SU on the road under Gailey and with the Bills getting so few points in this one, I look for the Jets to surprise their critics with an outstanding effort. Down the road, I don’t know. However, on Sunday it’s all J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 1 Goin' Over Total (26-14 L2 years)
My 10* NFL Week 1 Goin’ Over Total is on NE/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Riddle me this. Over which of these two, five-season ’eras’ has Tom Brady been the better QB? “Tom Terrific” averaged just over 3,600 passing yards per year from 20001-05 with 123 TDs and 66 INTs. From 2006-11 (Brady was injured in Week 1 of the 2008 season and missed the entire year) Brady averaged just under 4,400 passing yards per year with 177 TDs and only 49 INTs. The answer seems obvious but here’s the rub. Brady led the Pats to three wins in three Super Bowl trips in that first five-year span but in the most recent five-year span, the New England’s two Super Bowl trips have ended in upset losses at the hands of the Giants. New England won its eighth AFC East title in nine years last season with a 13-3 record and the Pats are again among the AFC favorites to reach the Super Bowl (a very manageable schedule only helps). The team’s passing game is scary. Brady threw for 5,235 yards (second-most in NFL history) and 39 TDs. Wes Welker led the league with 122 receptions for 1,569 yards plus Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez created the NFL's best tight end tandem, combining for 169 catches, 2,237 yards and 24 TDs. For 2012, the Pats have added WR Brandon Lloyd, who had a league-best 1,448 receiving yards in 2010 for Denver. He has been reunited with former Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, who is now back with the Pats as offensive coordinator (a position he held from from 2006-08). The Pats finished third in the league in scoring at 32.1 PPG but defensively, the Pats are not the same defensive unit they were when winning Super Bowls. New England allowed 21.4 PPG on the season (ranked 15th) but allowed 23.5 on the road. New England ranked 31st in total yards allowed (411.1), mostly because of a pass “D’ which allowed more YPG (294.0) than any team other than the Packers. Jake Locker gets the nod as Tennessee’s starting QB (first career start) and usually, giving Belichick time to prepare for a young QB, would be a “no contest.” However, that’s no longer the case. Second-year head coach Mike Munchak is turning the offense over to Locker, believing he gives the team its best chance to win the AFC South. Locker, the eighth pick of the 2011 draft, threw for 542 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions coming off the bench in five games as a rookie. He then beat out Matt Hasselbeck, during an impressive preseason. The Titans are hoping to bridge that success into the regular season and Locker's job will be much easier if RB Chris Johnson can rebound from the worst season of his career. After missing almost all of last year’s preseason in a holdout (before signing an extension), he ran for a career-low 1,047 yards in 2011 (4.0 YPC). Johnson had topped 1,200 yards in each of his first three NFL seasons (had 2,006 in his second), averaging 5.0 YPC in that three-year span. Johnson insists reaching 2,000 yards for the second time is a goal and was quoted as saying, "I'm ready to get ready for New England." Whether he is or not, we’ll see. The Titans are coming off a very good preseason, allowing the fewest points in the AFC (16.8 per game) and leading either conference with eight interceptions. However, this team had just 13 INTs all of last year and a modest 28 sacks. I’ve talked about the New England offense and a check of the record book reveals that the Pats are 24-8 (75%) to the over these last two seasons and have had no issues starting fast. Take the team’s first four games in each of the last two seasons. The average game score has been 57.5 PPG (10 points higher than the opening total in this one), with SEVEN of the eight going over. The lone exception being a 31-19 win at Oakland, when the closing total was 55. Go OVER!