9-16-12

[poopoo333]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Scott Spreitzer

NFL SHOCKER TOPS 3-PLAY SMACKDOWN!

STL +3.5 (-110) BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) vs WAS

PIT -5.0 (-110) 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/) vs NYJ

SEA +3.0 (-110) BetOnline (http://www.betonline.ag/) vs DAL

[poopoo333]

Guaranteed Pick: Ben Burns Main Event

Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Sep 16 2012 8:25PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and SF to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their Week 1 game finish above the total. I believe those results are providing us with some very solid value here, keeping this one well above the important 44 mark. Week 1 provided a reminder that the 49'ers have a very good defense. They allowed 22 points last week and that was at Lambeau, agains Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They kept Rodgers from completely going off and they limited the Packer run game to a mere 45 total yards. While the Lions probably weren't too pleased to give up 23 points to the Rams, a closer look reveals that Detroit did only allow 251 total yards, which is very good. St. Louis benefitted field-position wise from Detroit turnovers while also scoring seven of its points directly off an interception. In other words, the Lion defense played better than the 23 points allowed suggests. A look at last season's game reveals an O/U line of 44.5 and a final score of 44. However, if you remember that game (the famous "hand-shake" game) 16 of those points came in a wild fourth quarter. As they like to often do, the 49ers ran the ball regularly (and successfully) in that game. They'll likely look to employ a similar strategy here. Of course, regular running plays help to keep the clock moving - a good thing. Many will remember the 49'ers wild game with New Orleans last season, a 36-32 victory last January. However, that's the ONLY time in 11 games here since the start of the 2011 calendar year that a visiting team scored more than 27 here. The other 10 teams averaged a mere 11.4 points. Other than that New Orleans game, none of the 49'ers last 20 games here have had an O/U line anywhere close to this high. While I respect the Detroit offense, with the home team running the clock with regularity, I expect the final combined score to stay beneath Sunday's big number. *10

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

KC +3, 3* at +3 or more
Jacksonville, 2* at +6 or more
Cowboys 3* if –3 @ –125 or less, 2* if above that
San Diego –6 is 3* at 6-1/2 or less, 2* at –7 or more

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Gavazzi

4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It was a positive debut for first year Tampa Bay HC Schiano in the Bucs 16-10 victory over Carolina. Today he makes his return to the NJ/NYC area where he successfully coached Rutgers in recent seasons. Schiano immediately put his mark on his new team who had tossed the towel under the Rahim Morris tenure in going 4-12 LY. Last week the Bucs used dominance at the point of attack outrushing the Panthers 130-10. The defending champs opening week was not as propitious. They stumbled on this very field versus their rival, double-avenging Cowboys. The Cowboys outrushed NY 143-82 and outgained them 433-269 in a 24-17 win. With the Giants just 8-16-1 ATS on this field of late, it is not too early to consider that the GMen were 6 week wonders in winning the Super Bowl last season.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL
Nfl
Steelers
Rams
Chargers
Seattle
Lions

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Best Bet

Kansas City (+3) 24 BUFFALO 19
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Both teams are coming off blowout losses last week, but Kansas City is more likely to bounce back with a good effort today. The Bills made a big free agent splash to help the defense, but Mario Williams isn’t a defensive back and that’s where the Bills need help. Buffalo struggled against the pass last year and they were lit up by a below average quarterback last week as Mark Sanchez averaged 10.2 yards per pass play in a 48-28 Jets’ victory over the Bills. Buffalo is still good at moving the ball on offense but Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to throw far too many interceptions, which negates their ability to move the ball at a better than average clip. Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions last week after leading the league in picks last season with 23, and his 3.8% career interception rate is extremely high.

Kansas City’s 24-40 loss to Atlanta wasn’t as bad as the score indicates, as a -3 in turnover hurt them more than anything else. Matt Cassell did throw 2 interceptions, but he’s thrown just 45 picks in 55 career starts and his 2.6% career interception rate is better than average. My math does project the Bills to outgain Kansas City by 30 yards but the Chiefs are more likely to win the turnover battle and my ratings only favor the Bills by ½ a point in this game.

In addition to the line value Kansas City applies to a very good 31-4 ATS week 2 situation and Buffalo applies to a 28-81-3 ATS early season negative momentum situation. I’ll take Kansas City in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.


2 Star Best Bet
JACKSONVILLE (+7.0) 20 Houston 19
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
I’m not going to make an argument as the why Jacksonville should compete in this game, although Jaguars’ quarterback Blaine Gabbert looked much improved in the opener at Minnesota, as this game is all about my week 2 indicators. In this case, the Jaguars apply to a 69-11-4 ATS week 2 indicator and is 36-1-2 ATS when applying to a home team. Houston, meanwhile, applies to a 48-115-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is 4-15 ATS in week 2 games. This game is a pure technical play and I’ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet.

3 Star Best Bet
Dallas (-3.0) 27 SEATTLE 16
16-Sep-2012 1:05PM Pacific
Dallas may have been the most impressive team in the league in week 1 and had the Cowboys rated as the 5th best team in the NFL heading into the season. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is coming off his best season and started this year with a masterful dissection of the Giants’ defense while averaging 9.4 yards per pass play. The rushing attack is led by DeMarco Murray, who’s 131 yards on 20 carries last week now gives him a career average of 5.6 ypr on 184 runs, which is very, very good. I don’t expect Murray to keep up that average, but I rate the Cowboys’ rushing attack at 4.7 ypr and the Cowboys are just behind the Patriots as my highest rated attack.

The big difference in Dallas this season is a defense that was bad last season but made significant improvements in the off season that I suspected would have them in the top half of the league in defense this year. That certainly appears likely given that they held a very good Giants’ offense to just 269 yards at 5.0 yards per play last week. Seattle has a good defense that I rate at 0.4 yppl better than average, but the Cowboys have the edge when they have the ball.

The Dallas defense, which I rate at 0.5 yppl better than average, also has an advantage against a Seattle offense averaged only 3.6 yppl last week and rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average in my ratings. Overall my ratings favor Dallas by 6 points in this game and the Cowboys apply to a very good 69-11-4 ATS week 2 indicator. I’ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 at -125 odds or less and for 2-Stars up to -4 points.

3 Star Best Bet
SAN DIEGO (-6.0) 27 Tennessee 13
16-Sep-2012 1:25PM Pacific
San Diego had some good fortune on their side last week with 3 punting miscues by the Raiders after their long snapper was injured, but they did actually slightly outplay the Raiders from the line of scrimmage while the Titans were getting whipped at home by the Patriots. Tennessee’s defense actually played well in limiting the Patriots to 5.9 yppl but the offensive line looks horrible and the Titans averaged just 4.7 yppl and managed just 13 points in that loss. My ratings for San Diego by 6 points, so the line is fair, but the Chargers apply to a 36-1-2 ATS week 2 indicator and that’s more than good enough for me. I’ll take San Diego in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars a t-7.


NFL Strong Opinions

Minnesota (-2.0) 27 INDIANAPOLIS 20
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Minnesota needed overtime to dispatch of an underrated Jacksonville team last week, but the Vikings had a 6.7 yards per play to 4.9 yppl advantage against the Jaguars. Indianapolis looked pretty decent offensively in Andrew Luck’s debut (5.7 yppl against a good Bears’ defense), but the Colts still have a ton of problems on defense and they allowed the Bears to rack up 432 yards at 6.6 yppl. That looks even worse when considering how the Bears struggled on Thursday night against a sub-par Packers’ defense. Christian Ponder looked good in the preseason and he carried that over to opening day – throwing for an average of 9.2 yards per pass play against a talented Jacksonville secondary. Having Adrian Peterson back to keep defenses honest surely helps Ponder and he should have no trouble picking apart the Colts’ porous defensive backfield. Luck should also have good success against Minnesota’s questionable secondary and overall my ratings favor the Vikings by 1 ½ points – which is right on the number. I like Minnesota here on the basis of some early season trends that go against the Colts. Teams that allowed more than 35 points in week 1 are just 4-23 ATS in their second game since 1994 and the Colts also apply to a negative 18-56-3 ATS week 2 situation. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at -2 ½ points or less.

Cleveland (+6.5) 16 CINCINNATI 17
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
I don’t completely trust Brown’s rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, who completed less than 50% of his passes in the preseason and was horrible last week against the Eagles (just 3.0 yards per pass play with 4 interceptions), but Cincinnati was horrible last week defensively and my ratings favor the Bengals by only 6 ½ points even with Weeden rated as the worst starting quarterback in the league and with Cleveland CB Joe Haden suspended (Haden gave up 8.1 yards per pass last year, so he’s overrated). The reason for liking the Browns is technical, as Cleveland applies to a very good 31-4 ATS game 2 situation as well as a general 65-20-2 ATS road underdog situation. Cincinnati, meanwhile, applies to a negative 18-56-3 ATS game 2 home team situation, so the technical analysis is strongly in favor of the Browns here. I’m still reluctant to make the Browns a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion - Under (38 ½) Cleveland at Cincinnati
Early season games tend to go under when a low scoring game is expected, as week 2 games are 115-60-8 UNDER when the total is less than 40 points. My rating project 35 ½ total points, so I see some value to go along with the good angle. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion.
Oakland (-2.5) 20 MIAMI 13
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Oakland had the misfortune of having their long snapper get injured and then pay the price as the Raiders failed to get off 3 straight punts that lead to 13 Chargers’ points. The Raiders weren’t really outplayed other than that, as they averaged 4.8 yards per play and allowed 4.9 yppl in their 14-22 loss. Miami also was pretty competitive from the line of scrimmage in their 10-30 loss at Houston, as the Dolphins averaged 4.8 yppl and allowed just 5.2 yppl to the Texans. It was a -4 in turnover margin, including 3 interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, that was the major culprit in the large margin. I’ll look for the Raiders to bounce back, as teams that opened the season with a loss to a division rival are 36-14 ATS on the road in week 2 when facing a team off a loss – and the Raiders apply to a 26-3 ATS subset of that angle that is 19-0 ATS since 1990. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion at -2 ½ or less.

Strong Opinion - Under (39 ½) Oakland at Miami
I also like this game to be pretty low scoring, as both defenses played well last week while both offenses struggled. Early season games tend to go under when a low scoring game is expected, as week 2 games are 115-60-8 UNDER when the total is less than 40 points. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion.
PITTSBURGH (-5.0) 27 NY Jets 16
16-Sep-2012 1:25PM Pacific
There are some key injuries in this game, as it looks like Pittsburgh will be without LB James Harrison and star SS Troy Polamalu while the Jets will be without TE Dustin Keller and the league’s best cornerback Darrelle Revis. I think those injuries favor Pittsburgh, as the Steelers’ defense was just as dominating last year when Harrison was out and they were actually slightly better, on a compensated basis, in the 6 games the Polamalu missed the last 3 seasons (they were 0.6 yppl better than average in those 6 games). The Jets will certainly not be as good without Revis, who is considered the league’s best cornerback for good reason. Revis allowed only 5.5 yards per pass attempt last season despite playing half the season with an injured knee (he allowed just 3.9 ypa through week 9). He ranked 8th among cornerbacks in yards per attempt allowed despite being injured half the season and that is tough to replace. Revis has missed only 2 meaningful games in his career, week 3 and 4 in 2010 (he missed week 17 that year too when the Jets were resting their starters) and New York allowed 6.7 yards per pass play in those games against New England and Miami, who would combine to average 6.8 yppp against an average team. Those are certainly not bad numbers, but the Jets were 1.0 yppp better than average in 2010 when Revis did play, which is a difference of 2 ½ points per game. I actually only raised the Jets’ pass defense by 0.4 yppp with Revis out this week and I docked the Steelers 0.2 ypr and 0.2 yppp for their defensive injuries even though being without Harrison and Polamalu has not made a difference in the past.

Pittsburgh’s offense looked horrible last week (just 4.0 yards per play) and it’s pretty clear to me that Ben Roethlisberger isn’t happy with the offense installed by new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. With that being the case I actually rate the Steelers as slightly below average offensively but my ratings still favor Pittsburgh by 5 ½ points, as I’m not quite buying the Jets’ offense suddenly being good based on one good game against a worse than average Bills’ defense. Pittsburgh applies to a very strong 69-11-4 ATS week 2 indicator that is 36-1-2 ATS when applying to home teams, but the Steelers also apply to a negative 6-30 ATS subset of a 43-88-3 ATS week 2 situation. The 36-1-2 ATS indicator is tough to pass on but the situation against Pittsburgh is enough to keep this from being a Best Bet. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ points or less.

Cleveland 16 at CINCINNATI 17 UNDER 38.5
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
I don’t completely trust Brown’s rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, who completed less than 50% of his passes in the preseason and was horrible last week against the Eagles (just 3.0 yards per pass play with 4 interceptions), but Cincinnati was horrible last week defensively and my ratings favor the Bengals by only 6 ½ points even with Weeden rated as the worst starting quarterback in the league and with Cleveland CB Joe Haden suspended (Haden gave up 8.1 yards per pass last year, so he’s overrated). The reason for liking the Browns is technical, as Cleveland applies to a very good 31-4 ATS game 2 situation as well as a general 65-20-2 ATS road underdog situation. Cincinnati, meanwhile, applies to a negative 18-56-3 ATS game 2 home team situation, so the technical analysis is strongly in favor of the Browns here. I’m still reluctant to make the Browns a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion - Under (38 ½) Cleveland at Cincinnati
Early season games tend to go under when a low scoring game is expected, as week 2 games are 115-60-8 UNDER when the total is less than 40 points. My rating project 35 ½ total points, so I see some value to go along with the good angle. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion.
Oakland 20 at MIAMI 13 UNDER 39.5
16-Sep-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Oakland had the misfortune of having their long snapper get injured and then pay the price as the Raiders failed to get off 3 straight punts that lead to 13 Chargers’ points. The Raiders weren’t really outplayed other than that, as they averaged 4.8 yards per play and allowed 4.9 yppl in their 14-22 loss. Miami also was pretty competitive from the line of scrimmage in their 10-30 loss at Houston, as the Dolphins averaged 4.8 yppl and allowed just 5.2 yppl to the Texans. It was a -4 in turnover margin, including 3 interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, that was the major culprit in the large margin. I’ll look for the Raiders to bounce back, as teams that opened the season with a loss to a division rival are 36-14 ATS on the road in week 2 when facing a team off a loss – and the Raiders apply to a 26-3 ATS subset of that angle that is 19-0 ATS since 1990. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion at -2 ½ or less.

Strong Opinion - Under (39 ½) Oakland at Miami
I also like this game to be pretty low scoring, as both defenses played well last week while both offenses struggled. Early season games tend to go under when a low scoring game is expected, as week 2 games are 115-60-8 UNDER when the total is less than 40 points. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' NFL Week 2 Goin' Over Total (26-14 last two years)
My 10* NFL Week 2 Goin' Over Total is on Oak/Mia Over at 1:00 ET.

Both the Raiders and Dolphins suffered through tough season openers. The Dolphins failed to score an offensive TD against Houston in a 30-10 loss while the Raiders were well on their way to matching them before getting into the end zone with 54 seconds to play in a 22-14 home loss to San Diego. Each team heads into this game with the sentiment, “we can do better.” Let’s hope so and I’m betting that starts right here, for both teams. Ryan Tannehill was the eighth overall pick in April's draft by Miami and the rookie was overwhelmed in his debut. I rarely play a two-TD favorite in the NFL but I did play on the Texans and against the Dolphins in Week 1. It almost seemed unfair for Tannehill to draw the Texans and their 3-4 defense for his NFL debut. It was well-documented that while at Texas A&M, Tannehill did about as poor a job of taking on 3-4 defenses as possible and Houston, with DC Wade Phillips, owns one of the NFL’s best 3-4 units. Tannehill seemed lost with two of his INTs interceptions coming on batted balls at the line of scrimmage, a total of four passes knocked down. Tannehill would finish 20-of-36 for 219 yards without a TD and three INTs (39.4 QB rating). However, I expect that he’ll have much better success against the Raiders. Oakland and its new coaching staff have just switched from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3. The Raiders’ MNF effort was ‘ugly.’ None more so than what happened in the team’s kicking game. Jon Condo, the team's long snapper, suffered a concussion and had his duties handed over to Travis Goethel, a backup linebacker who hadn't snapped a ball in a game since high school. He subsequently had two failed snaps to punter Shane Lechler, who failed to get each kick off and also had a punt blocked. In all, the errors led to three San Diego FGs (easily could have been worse) in an eight-point game. Oakland signed long snapper Nick Guess this week in case Condo is not cleared to play, as Goethel is clearly not an option. The Raiders ran the ball for just 45 yards in 23 attempts vs San Diego (McFadden was 15-for-32) but all things considered, Carson Palmer had a decent game (32-of-46 for 297 yards with one TD and zero INTs). Even coming off a short week and traveling cross-country, the Raiders opened as a small road favorite in this game. Putting that in perspective, it marks the first time the Raiders have been a road favorite since Week 14 of 2005 or SIX head coaches ago! Considering Miami has won 12 of the last 15 meetings with Oakland and NINE of the last 10 non-playoff games, one has to wonder. Let’s just go to recent history and note that these two teams have met each of the last two seasons, with the Dolphins winning in early December of last year 34-14 at home and 33-17 in late November of 2010 out in Oakland. Note those two game scores of 48 and 50 points. This game opened 39 1/2 and I’m expecting both teams to reach the 20s in this one and in fact, I expect the final score to top 50. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 10* Situational Game of the Year (7-3 w/FB 10*s in 2012)
My 10* AFC/NFC Situational Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Eagles finished last season on a 4-0 SU and ATS run but it was too little, too late. Philly opened the 2012 season as HUGE road favorites in Cleveland, escaping with their lives. Vick threw four INTs but because Brandon Weeden had one of the worst debuts in NFL history (12-of-35 for 118 yards with zero TDs and four INTs / 5.1 QB rating), Vick’s 16-play, 91-yard TD drive was enough to edge the the Browns, 17-16. Vick threw 56 times for his 317 passing yards (two TDs) and McCoy added 110 yards rushing. The Ravens were impressive in their home opener last Monday, steadily pulling way from the Bengals in a 44-13 home win. Flacco looked very good in his 2012 debut, completing 21-of-29 for 299 yards with two TDs and zero INTs plus Ray Rice added two rushing TDs. As always, the Baltimore “D’ was the Baltimore “D,” making a solid debut under new coordinator Dean Pees. The Ravens had four sacks and forced two turnovers, one a 34-yard interception return for a TD by Ed Reed. The Ravens rolled up 430 total yards for the contest, with Flacco leading the offense to points on its first three drives, enabling Baltimore to build a 17-3 lead early in the second quarter. He finished with a 128.4 QB rating, the fourth-best mark in the fifth-year pro's career. Philadelphia fans rarely give any ‘quarter’ and Vick could be (almost certainly WIll be) facing an unfriendly home crowd if his performance isn’t greatly improved over Week 1. However, let’s remember he was limited to 12 snaps in the preseason due to injuries and he looked rusty last Sunday. "The great thing about it was nobody pointed fingers," said Vick." Everybody just stuck together and encouraged one another." The Eagles turned the ball over five times in all while committing 12 penalties for 110 yards at Cleveland, with the miscues lessening the effectiveness of an offense that churned out 456 total yards and 25 FDs while holding the ball for nearly 36 minutes. I had a big 10* play on Baltimore Monday but I believe most are making way too much of Baltimore’s win. I pointed out in my MNF analysis that the Bengals were not to be trusted in 2012. Cincinnati ended a long playoff drought in 2005 by winning the AFC North but then followed with 8-8, 7-9 and 4-11-1 years. The team won the AFC North again in 2009 but fell to 4-12 in 2010. Then came last year’s wild card appearance. Are the Bengals ready to fall back again this season, right on cue? I surely expect that to be the case. I like what Dalton and Green did last year to reinvigorate the offense and the defense did a solid job, finishing seventh in total yards allowed (316.3 YPG) and ninth in points allowed (20.2 PPG). However, a closer look at the team's 9-7 finish reveals the Bengals went just 1-6 against that finished .500 or better last year and then fell to 1-7 with a 31-10 loss to Houston in the wild card round. Baltimore’s big win was no surprise to me. However, the Philly “D” will be a much different ‘story’ for Flacco and Co. on Sunday. The Eagles can blitz with success from anywhere on the field, especially on the perimeter, which could cause fits for Flacco. The Eagles finished last season tied for the most sacks (50) in the league and I look for this unit to slow Baltimore’s new-found offense down. As for Vick and that Philly offense, they’ll be a much tougher test than Cincy’s was for Baltimore’s “D” and the Eagles catch the Ravens traveling off a MNF game. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game plus they're also just 3-9-1 ATS following a SU win by more than 14 points. One needs to look back no further than last season to see an excellent example of this. The Ravens crushed the Steelers 35-7 at home in Week 1 but then lost 26-13 at Tennessee, the very next week. This is a situational ‘nightmare’ for the Ravens and the Eagles are WAY better than we saw last Sunday in Cleveland. We’ll see that here, as the Eagles take down the Ravens, with “room to spare!”