9-26-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Jen Barry (5-3)(+90*) Since Sat.

50* MLB Underdog Move

Oakland Athletics +130 over Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 9/26

3* (MLB) San Diego Padres ML -116

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

COLORADO -1½ +153 over Chicago
The Cubs played spoiler. They took five out of seven games against the Pirates to destroy their playoff hopes, swept the Reds and took two of three from the Cardinals. They now go back to being insignificant and promptly dropped the first game of this series 10-5 in 7-inning shortened game last night. Expect more of the same here with Jason Berken on the hill.

Berken is a recent waiver-wire claim that could not stick in the Orioles rotation or bullpen and subsequently posted middling skills at Baltimore’s AAA affiliate. In just 11 innings with Colorado, he’s posted an xERA of 5.75. He walks too many, he gives up too many long balls and he’s simply not major-league ready.

Drew Pomeranz is 1-9 with a 5.30 ERA. That’s not pretty but it allows us to back a strongly undervalued pitcher against a lousy team with a take back that is too juicy to pass up on. Pomeranz came into the big leagues with plenty of hype but has not delivered. He’s now entering post-hype profit territory. He posted excellent strikeout rates in both July and August, as well as good command. His skills vs. LH bats have been as good as any in the league with a .192 BAA and 50% groundball rate. This is a true buy low pitcher against a weak-hitting and unmotivated team.
Our PickCOLORADO -1½ +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)

Oakland +130 over TEXAS
The Rangers are a comfortable four games ahead of the A’s in the division with just eight games remaining but Oakland is still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot, as they’re tied with the Orioles for a Wild Card spot. The A’s have played the Rangers tough all season and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different.

Jarrod Parker has enjoyed a nice season in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery (3.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). His base skills have lagged behind for a good portion of the year but in the 2H have been much better. Parker is walking less while striking out more. His groundball rate has gone from average (40%) to solid (46%) and as a result, he’s worth an investment against Martin Perez.

Perez received this promotion due to an injury to Roy Oswalt and the ineffectiveness of Scott Feldman. He picked up the pieces of Feldman's rough outing with 4.1 scoreless innings (1 BB, 5 K) on September 15. Little else suggests Perez is ready for a promotion. At Triple-A Round Rock, Perez struggled with his strikeout rate and command all season with an ugly 69/56 K/BB over 127 IP. Dating back to June 30, the Rangers have dropped all eight games he’s appeared in over that span, suggesting they like him as a mop-up guy. If management prefers him in that role, we’re not about to spot a tag with him starting.
Our PickOakland +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

The Orioles were supposed to beat Ricky Romero and Aaron Laffey these past two days but instead lost them both, being outscored 13-5. Pressure heightens here and things won’t get easier against Toronto’s Carlos Villanueva.

Villanueva has worked exclusively as a starter in the 2H. He has solid numbers right across the board, including 115 K’s in 121 innings to go along with a 3.95 xERA. This righty has a history of consistency and good numbers and surely warrants a close look against an Orioles team that has overachieved all year and is now feeling the heat.

Miguel Gonzalez has done exactly what the team he’s pitching for has done - overachieve. At age 28, Gonzalez has worked diligently to get to the big leagues. However, the numbers suggest that he’s pitched over his head and the reality of pro sports does not always provide a happy ending. Gonzalez’s ERA has been fed by unsustainable hit and strand percentages. A decisive fly-ball % lean shows more trouble. His more pedestrian xERA (4.46) is an indication of Gonzalez' true talent. The end result here is an overvalued pitcher looking to help snap his club out of a mini-funk and we surely prefer to be on the other side of that.
Our PickToronto +159 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. New York Mets -110 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Wednesday @ 7:05pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Book Breakers

4.5-STAR CINCINNATI over Milwaukee - When Milwaukee made this crazy late season run, there was no doubt it would eventually run out of steam. It's happening now. Their division rival is going to want to finish them off here before winding down to prepare for the postseason.

Cincinnati won the series opener yesterday, 4-2. They allowed just five hits in the game. The Brewers are 0-7 since April 15, 2012 as a dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700 when playing against. Meanwhile, the Reds are 17-6 since April 25, 2012 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits in a night game for a net profit of $1031.
Bronson Arroyo starts for them today. He was extremely efficient in his last start, needing just 88 pitches to get through eight innings and 30 batters. The Reds are 7-1 since May 23, 2012 when Bronson Arroyo starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $610.
He allowed one run over those eight innings before falling, 3-1. The Reds are 9-0 since April 25, 2011 when Bronson Arroyo starts after a quality start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $975.
Shaun Marcum also had a quality start last outing allowing one run over six innings. The Brewers are 6-11 since April 23, 2011 when Shaun Marcum starts after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $825 when playing against.
Last year, Marcum faced Cincinnati three times. They lost all three. The Brewers are 5-15 since May 27, 2011 when Shaun Marcum starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1146 when playing against. : CINCINNATI 6, Milwaukee 3

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Wednesday's Play

25 Dime selction on the Minnesota Twins against the New York Yankees. As I release this play at 6:45 am Pacific in Vegas, the line on the Twins is currently averaging +205 in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

Wednesday's Action

20 Dime winner going out on the Detroit Tigers on the RUN LINE at home agagnst the visiting Kansas City Royals. The starting pitchers are listnd as Guthrie and Porcello. At the time I release this selection at 9:30 am eastern, the Tigers are the +125 RUN LINE underdogs both here in Vegas and offshore. Keep in mind that both listed pitchers must start, or this play is VOID

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney

Wednesday's winner...


My 25-Dime Winner is on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS in their American League West showdown against the Seattle Mariners, at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California. As I relejase this game at 9:25 a.m. eastern, a majornty of the lines I see both Offshore and in Las Vegas have this game sitting at Angels -140.

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

Wednesday's winner...

My 500♦ Winner for today is the N.Y. YANKEES RUN LINE against the Minnesota Twins, at Target Park, in Minneapolis, Minn. I am releasing this game at 5:45 a.m. Pacific, and I currently see the line at a majority of Las Vegas and/or Offshore Sports Books sitting at NY Yankees -1.5 runs, -127

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

Wednesday's Selection ...

For Wednesday night in baseball, 200,000♦ Run Line Massacre on the visitng St. Louis Cardinals agajinst the Houston Astros. It is Carpenter and Norris listed to start, and both must start or this play is VOID. At the time I release this selection at 8:30 am eastern, the Cards are -120 on the Run Line versus the Astros.



Cards your Run Line Massacre tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Wednesday's Action...


50 Dime Play tonight in baseball on undgerdog Oakland as they play at division rival Texas once again here on Wednesday night. The listed starters are Parker and Perez and both must start or this play is VOID. The current price on this game in Vegas and the offshore books is Oakland +120 at the time I post my annlysis at 7:30 am eastern time.



Analysis

50 DIME - OAKLAND A'S (Parker vs. Perez) -- Coming back by 4:00 pm eastern with my analysis

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

Wednesday's big winner...

My 60 Dime Winner for tonight is on the Detroit Tigers Run Line, against the Kansas City Royals, as I play this series for a second-straight night, from Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. And while I know all run line plays automatically list pitchers, I want you to be sure the pitchers of record in this game are Rick Porcello and Jeremy Guthrie. As I release this play at 11:30 p.m. (PT), the Run Line price I am seeing both Offshore and in Las Vegas is Detroit -1.5 runs, +130

[Mr. IWS]

5 Lines

Total Line for 09/26/2012 (Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers : o7
Cost: -110


Run Line for 09/26/2012(Won last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Baltimore Orioles : -1.5
Cost: +105

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

PHILADELPHIA -134 over Washington: Lannan is 2-12 with a 5.79 ERA in 17 career starts vs the Phils, including 1-5 with a 7.07 ERA in 7 starts here.

DETROIT -160 over Kansas City

Cubs/ Colorado Over 10.5

Toronto/ Baltimore Over 8.5

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Tampa Bay -133 over BOSTON

Texas/ Oakland Under 9

1 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Dodgers Under 7

[Mr. IWS]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks by GT Staff

Baseball

San Diego Padres -115

New York Mets -110

St. Louis Cardinals -180

Colorado Rockies -125

Toronto Blue Jays +160

Detroit Tigers -155

Tampa Bay Rays -115

Oakland Athletics +130

Los Angeles Angels -140